In an Age of Techno-Pessimism, Here's the Science-Based Case for Optimism | Rob Marciano

0:03Hey, everybody, welcome to the 10 % Happier podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. We're living in a time where people are, I think, quite legitimately pretty pessimistic and anxious about the state of the world, specifically as it pertains to technology and specifically as it pertains to artificial intelligence, but not just artificial intelligence. So today we're going to talk about how to be less pessimistic and anxious In other words, we're going to hear the evidence-based, science-based case for actually being optimistic And that case is going to be laid out for us by an old friend of mine, an old colleague as well His name is Rob Marciano Right now he's the national weather correspondent for CBS News He's been in television news for more than 30 years He's a Cornell-trained scientist Before CBS, he worked with me at ABC News We were co-hosts of Weekend Good Morning America And we're also personal friends And he's got a new book that he has co-written with a physicist named James Treffel And the book is called The Next Big Thing Innovations for a Better, Smarter, Stronger Tomorrow The Optimist's Case about the future of the planet coming up after this quick break with Rob Marciano.

1:23A few things before we hear from our sponsors. I've got exciting news. If you love this show, but do not love listening to the advertisements, a subscription to my app, 10 % with Dan Harris, now includes a private ad-free feed of the 10 % Happier podcast available on whatever platform you choose, whether that's Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or right inside the app itself. Plus, along with an ad-free listening experience, the app also gives you a growing library of meditations from world-class teachers, exclusive live stream events with me and many of our incredible instructors, and robust and supportive discussion threads where you can ask questions, share your struggles, and connect with our growing community.

2:06We've got a free 14-day trial. If you want to try it before you buy, join the party. DanHarris.com. We'll be right back after this. My wife and I were doing a little shopping on Wayfair today, and we got a floating basketball net for our pool, which our son is extremely excited about. If you haven't checked out Wayfair, you should. You can now shop with Wayfair Verified. It's your shortcut to the good stuff. Their team of product specialists vets everything by hand using a 10-point inspection, testing things like quality of materials, functionality, and features, and even how long it takes to build.

2:41You may have seen their website, but their selection is voluminous. They've got seating, grills, appliances, storage, lighting, rugs, decor, one place, everything you need, no bouncing between stores. And if putting it all together sounds like a headache, Wayfair can handle delivery, installation, and assembly. You just pick what you want, and they deal with the rest. Ready to upgrade your home for way less? Head to Wayfair.com right now to shop all things home and get your space ready for less. That's W-A-Y-F-A-I-R dot com. Way there, every style, every home Rob Marciano, welcome to the show Hello, Dan Harris Great to be here, my friend This is such a trip Usually I see you over dinner Or for 10 years I saw you on the set of Weekend Good Morning America And now you're on my podcast It's like, how did this happen?

3:34I know, I don't even think during COVID We did one of those drink-a-thons on Zoom You know, this is our first virtual conversation. It's a little awkward. All right. Well, first of all, congratulations on your new book or new-ish book. Thank you. I find it really interesting because we live in, as you know, like people are so pessimistic these days, particularly about technology. So, and yet you've written this book as super optimistic. So what are those of us who are pessimistic getting wrong here? You know me well, Dan, and as a science guy, I'm trained to be a skeptic and question things. My internal personality for a long time still is a bit of a cynic.

4:17You still want to question things as an aging adult. You've seen enough to where you want to play devil's advocate. But a lot of my personality over the years has been a little bit pessimistic. So this evolution and epiphany with this book has certainly been a bit of a 180, and it's taken a lot of people by surprise, you included. But you know how it goes. I mean, you've been through evolutions in your way of life and mentality, and this has been one for me, and it's been a joy to go through it. And much like your journey and speaking to people about spirituality and enlightenment and the like, getting to meet the people who are the geniuses of our generation out there developing the latest and greatest technologies and innovations that are going to propel us into the future has been amazing.

5:14to witness their joy and enthusiasm, uh, is nothing short of mind blowing and can't help you. Can't, you can't help yourself, but just to be drawn into that group, it's infusive, uh, it's engaging and it's, it's magnetic. So like so much that we have in life and the world When you meet the right people, they can change your mind. And I grew a lot in writing this book, and it has made me more hopeful because with all the negativity that we have out there and all the conflict that we have, be it in international geopolitics or our national politics, we're all going through this life together one step at a time, one day at a time.

6:05And the journey forward while after meeting the people that are developing these new ways is quite inspiring. We'll get into the specifics, but there's the just on a high level, there's the science, which is you find compelling. But it seems like actually meeting the people, the scientists, really kind of put you over the top. Yeah. I mean, you think of the people that have developed things over the years, other than the Steve Jobs and Elon Musk of the world, just because the way our world has been and is the past couple of decades, everybody is front and center. You know, whether it's a man dressed in all black on stage whipping out this new device called iPhone or Elon Musk doing his thing, everybody's out there in your face.

6:51But the Thomas Edison's of the world, the Nikolai Tesla's of the world, you know, they're there. It wasn't quite that way. You know, they may have had their own roadshow that you may have heard that heard about them on a through a telegraph or some sort of newspaper. But the brilliant minds and innovators of the past have always been these guys that are behind the curtain. Wizard of Oz. And what our modern world allows us to, whether or not you go meet them in person or you meet them like we're talking to you now, is you get a feel for what these people are. And more importantly, you see that they're real people.

7:28They're the same as you are as far as flesh and blood is concerned. And there's something that is inspiring about that. I mean, Yeah, these guys are smarter than me. No doubt about that. And I'm privileged to meet them. But we breathe the same air the same way. We put our pants on the same way. We put our shoes on the same way. They're just like me. And that gives that feeling of inclusivity that I don't think we had decades past when we weren't as so together in every sort of medium. So the book goes through four different areas. The fourth area is the one where I think most people are most anxious.

8:09That is information technology, namely AI. So we'll hold that for last because I think that's where we'll want to spend the most time. But it starts with energy. And what's interesting to me is is knowing you for so long, you have spent and continue to spend an enormous amount of time like at the tip of the spear when it comes to what's happening in our climate. Like you're the guy standing out there like a dummy in the middle of the hurricanes. And I'm kidding, you're standing out there quite bravely, honestly, showing us what's happening with these hurricanes and tornadoes, et cetera, et cetera.

8:50um and and so i and for my pov there there seems to be a very legitimate uh concern about what's happening with our climate so what what have you learned that has like put your mind at ease to at least some extent well the climate uh crisis if you will is still is still alarming and it's still worrisome um and there's been an evolution of my thought process there over the past 20 years i I mean, when Al Gore came out in the early 2000s and showed the hockey stick as a meteorologist who's trained to be a skeptic on the five-day forecast, let alone the 50 -year forecast, me and my colleagues would kind of brush it off like saying, well, we'll see what happens.

9:41I mean, it can't quite happen that fast or be that catastrophic. And, you know, 10 years, five, 10 years later, you started to see the impacts. And here we are, and it's been consistent in seeing the heavier rainfall and the catastrophic flooding that we're seeing, the extreme heat waves that we're seeing and the extreme fire behavior that we're seeing, the explosive hurricanes that we're seeing, and to some extent, the same thing for some of these winter storms. So it is having an impact, and that is still alarming. Do I think it's the end of the world? No. I think not only do humans have the ability, amazing ability to adapt and evolve, but so does our planet.

10:28We do have the ability to slow things down. Will we be able to turn it around by 2050 like the United Nations hopes or by the end of this century? I wouldn't say turn it around, but we certainly have the ability to slow things down. And when you see all the advances that we're making in so many other arenas, how can you not believe that we'll be able to get a hold of this climate crisis and the warming of our globe? And the number one way to do that is to what? To limit our carbon dioxide. Now, the book doesn't – I'm not stumping the Bible here, and I'm not stumping on climate change constantly, but it does have an overarching theme, and many of our technologies are inherently better for the climate and better for our environment.

11:23And who doesn't want that? So if we can be more efficient and we can be cleaner and things can be cheaper and faster and smarter and stronger, I mean, that's a win-win-win-win-win for everybody. So it all comes together if we can stay on that path. But to answer your question, the number one way, as we all know, to try to slow down the warming of our global temperatures and to slow down our climate change is to slow down our production of CO2. and we need electricity we need power we need we need the energy and the the great majority of the energy and electricity that were produced across the globe is from coal from oil and from natural gas and those continue to belge co2 into the atmosphere so wind solar geothermal to an extent and nuclear really um that's gonna propel us forward and the most exciting thing uh that i got to witness and and explore while writing this book is nuclear fusion which is different from fission fission which we've been doing since the 50s basically where you split an atom fusion you you're trying to fuse the atom and that releases even more energy like the energy of the surface of the sun.

12:49But it's also that much harder to do. It's been the elusive holy grail of power generation forever. And there's a lot of scientists out there that still think, including my co-author, that we're probably never going to get there, at least not in our lifetime. So I'm not that quite pessimistic because after talking to so many people that are working on this that are so excited and optimistic, but we're making strides. And I do think it will happen in our lifetime. at least on a small scale. And then eventually we'll have nuclear fusion and our kids will be, and grandkids will be living in a cleaner, better place for it.

13:29So that's the holy grail. It's debatable whether we'll get there in our lifetime. And it really depends on the age of the listener because some of our younger listeners may see it and you and I may not. However, and you kind of mentioned this, but maybe worth saying a little bit more, there are other things happening that, uh, other technological advances that, you know, bolstered your sense of optimism on this score. I'm a big proponent of nuclear and it has to be nuclear fission the old school way. So be it. They're, they're finding ways to make that a little bit cleaner, a little bit safer.

14:03As you know, the waste in those coming out of those facilities is problematic. But if we bury it enough deep in the ground, we can kind of bide our time until we figure out the fusion process. There's something in the book about tiny nuclear reactors. What's that about? Right now, there's billions of dollars being invested in nuclear fusion. And startup companies here in the US, that's the new space race, if you will. The gold rush is to get to nuclear fusion. And a lot of these companies like, say, Microsoft, they're investing in it heavily because they want to be able to power their data centers and there are other things that they need a lot of electricity for.

14:51So the best way to do that is to have your own reactor on site. So having these mini reactors power maybe your campus of data centers and or corporate offices, that's a lot more efficient than having to suck power off the grid. And then you can also feed the grid with some of the power that you're not using. So we're seeing companies develop those as well. And just to just come back to the nuclear waste part of all this, that's where people start getting pretty nervous around nuclear power. And, you know, people in our generation remember Three Mile Island and Chernobyl and things like that. What's the evidence based pushback to the nervous, to the anxious from your POV?

15:41We haven't had a major accident, if you will, since, you know, Fukushima, which wasn't really their fault. So that was a tsunami. Yeah, the tsunami got involved there. So the pushback is from consumers and citizens is that like you and I, we remember those those accidents and and those areas are still soiled and not livable. And so there's evidence, there's present day evidence that shows you that, yeah, this could be really bad. But we've, like everything else, we've gotten a lot better at it. The newer reactors that are coming online and even the ones that they're blowing off the dust on and bringing back online, they're updating with newer technologies, newer safety protocols, and all in all making them safer to be living around.

16:32Okay, so that's energy. On a related note, there's electricity. So the first part of the book is energy. The second part of the book is electricity. We'll get to infrastructure and information. What's the difference in your mind between electricity and energy? so electric cars uh electric airplanes now we're seeing it come online but at some point in the future we'll be driving our own aircraft around uh more than we will be our cars and even if we do have cars we're not going to be driving those either right it's not going to be long where they're going to be all driverless which i think is amazing as much as i like to drive once in a while i don't know anybody likes to be stuck in traffic um and the numbers bear witness to the fact that driverless cars are much safer than than human driving yeah most like like most accidents are human caused so if we can limit eliminate the human we're going to be safer on the roads and and less accidents so fewer uh traffic jams and a faster way to get to work whether you go on the ground or via the air.

17:40I tend on these issues of like the state of the world to be at least short to midterm, pretty pessimistic. But the one thing that I'm personally very optimistic about is driverless cars because it's just so much safer. When you think about or when you report on a drone air travel future, like not just airplane, but going to and from the airport or going from the suburbs into the city on drones. How are we going to make that safe? Well, it's just like every other thing in the air. It's FAA. It's going to be FAA regulator. There's going to be highways in the sky. There's going to be air traffic controls and air spaces that you're allowed to be in and be out of.

18:31It is a regulatory headache, no doubt about it. Um, but if we can figure out the additional planes and helicopters that we have in the sky every year, uh, because of the increased amount of money in this country and the increased amount of air travel, uh, we'll be able to figure, we'll figure out out, uh, what's out there. What's next. There's a lot of, there's a lot of airspace with the exception of New York city and the airspace here, which is extremely congested. And there's a fair amount of airspace to be able to navigate around. And the FAA and the air traffic controllers have the ability to do that.

19:08Now, that said, that whole scheme, and I haven't done much reporting on this, but there is a future in which every aircraft that's out there will be tracked autonomously and there'll be less human error in the air traffic control tower and more assistance by AI and the like to where air travel, at least colliding with somebody else, will be much safer too. Imagine buying your child a toy only to find out that batteries are not included. Or buying furniture, but it's missing the tools to build it. Frustrating, right? Now imagine that exact same feeling, but you're paying way more. That is what buying business software usually feels like.

19:54Fragmented, disconnected, and incredibly expensive. Odoo completely changes that. Odoo is a complete, fully integrated business suite where all your apps actually talk to each other. We're talking automatic lead routing for your sales team, seamless AI integration, and an intuitive point-and-click website builder. It's everything your business needs to scale, saving you time, headaches, and money. Stop piecing your software together. Go to odoo.com. That's O-D-O-O dot com to learn more.

20:28I made a new friend recently, and he was telling me that his wife is an avid listener to the show. She's so loyal, in fact, that she's now wearing quince on the regular, and she wanted me to know that. I, too, wear a lot of quince, not only because they're a sponsor of the show, but also because they make really good stuff. They focus on well-made essentials that naturally become those everyday staples you actually live in all season long. Quince's 100 % European linen pants and shirts are breathable, easy to throw on, and the summer upgrade your rotation needs, starting at just$34. Their tees are soft enough to live in all day, and the lightweight cotton sweaters are exactly what you want when summer nights cool down.

21:08Everything at Quince is priced 50 % to 80 % less than similar brands. They work directly with ethical factories and cut out the middlemen, so you're paying for exceptional quality, not brand markup. And it's not just clothing. Quince has become a trusted favorite for everything from home to travel to everyday essentials. Make your summer wardrobe easier. Go to quince.com slash happier for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. Now available in Canada too. That's quince.com slash happier for free shipping and 365 day returns. Quince.com slash happier. Summer's here. Time for a vacation for many of us.

21:49But vacations can be a little stressful because, of course, they often cost money. One way to reduce financial anxiety is, I have found, is to have all of your financial information in one place so you can look at it and get a sense of how things are going in one clean, clear interface. Which brings me to one of our sponsors today, Monarch. They have a product that does exactly that. My family and I have used it. Monarch is the personal finance app that tracks everything, accounts, investments, savings, goals, and spending. get your first year of Monarch Core for half off just$50 with promo code HAPPIER.

22:28Most apps only tell you what you've already spent. Monarch helps set goals, map out big purchases, and see if you're actually on track before it's too late to adjust. You can ask Monarch's AI assistant anything about your finances, like how much did I spend on travel last summer, or can I afford this vacation without touching my savings? Spot things you wouldn't think to look for with AI insights. Has your spending gone up or is it just inflation? Super helpful. Use code happier at monarch.com to get your first year of Monarch Core half off at just$50. That's 50 % off your first year at monarch.com with the code happier.

23:09Back here on the ground, there's a bunch of reporting in the book about some of the innovations and cool stuff happening with EVs, electric vehicles, like the range is now growing, like the batteries are getting larger. And then also there's this, all this stuff around regenerative braking. What's that about? Well, and if anybody watches Formula One, they know what that is. And if what I love about auto racing is especially Formula One is you're seeing the future on your television or in person when you go to a race. The newest technologies are being developed in Formula One because they have the money.

23:54So regenerative braking is something that they've used in their hybrid race cards for the past several years now. And basically what it does, what it means is when you hit the brakes going into a corner just to slow down your car, that friction basically creates energy that charges the battery. Much like an engine kind of keeps the alternator going in your gas-powered car, which charges your battery when you hit the brakes in a turn or just come to a full stop, that action, that conservation of energy, then gets transferred back into the battery. But the batteries are key. You mentioned the EVs and the range, right?

24:39Where we struggle in the EV market is the range. nobody wants to run out of gas. Nobody wants to be stuck on the highway because their battery died. Or they don't want to have to wait an hour or two hours to find a charging station and then charge the battery, which takes a lot longer than putting gas in your car. The new battery that's going to take us to the next level in electric vehicles is solid state batteries. And basically, it's the same concept as fluid batteries, except it's in the solid state. And so those batteries drain much slower and therefore your range will go twice as far in an EV vehicle and they will charge twice as fast.

25:25So the big race amongst car manufacturers is who's going to find the solid state battery of the future, because that's going to really make everybody buy an electric vehicle. And we're not far away from that. But once that happens, I think the combustible engine will begin to fade away. That's interesting. One last question about electricity. You've done some reporting on smart homes, which is kind of crazy to think about how our homes are going to change. What did you learn? Well, we're seeing that already, right? Just a matter of how much you want to dive into it. The internet of things, as we like to call it, which is a not so fancy way of saying the internet that's connected to the light bulb in this room or my refrigerator, which can, not my refrigerator, but some of these newer refrigerators can sense when you're out of milk or when you're out of butter and tell you to go get some more milk.

26:25Or better yet, go online for you and order to have it delivered to your door. If you have a ring camera or a Nest thermostat, it's not quite autonomous yet, right? You can set it and you can say, if the temperature falls to this number, then you can kick in. But who wants to go through that sort of, we want the internet of things to kick in and so that we don't have to think about our thermostat where it senses what's the most efficient time of day to heat your home while you're there or not there. And so this internet of things is, it's going to be a thing. It already is to a small extent, but it's going to be a bigger thing.

27:08And like everything else that's new, it'll be great when it works and not so great and maddening when it doesn't. But we've been in that state of technology now for the past 30 or 40 years that we're used to it. I mean, I think all that stuff's really cool. That fancy house of yours, you must have some stuff that's automated like that. I mean, that you don't have to think. I've got nothing. I've got nothing. This house was built in the 70s and it is anything but smart. And maybe that's a reflection of its owners. I knew you were going there. That's very not true. Well, you do have the capability of figuring out when you're out of milk and to go get some or order some up.

27:51So we're going with the Internet of the sniff test on the milk for now. All right. Let's talk infrastructure. Why should we be? I'm just joking. I'm laughing for a second about how I think for two administrations or three administrations running. there's uh it we've always been on the cusp of infrastructure week uh you know where the white house is you know they're going to roll out their big infrastructure thing and it never quite happens although biden maybe did some of it you know i think anybody who drives on the highways notices the sorry state of our infrastructure in many places in this country what is this the what is the case for optimism in this regard well when we think of uh infrastructure use that term it's not We often think just like, okay, well, the interstates, the bridges, the civic buildings, and the sewer systems, that's the infrastructure of our shared society.

28:46But the infrastructure of all the things that we – the desk that I'm sitting on, the house that's my home, how those things are built is infrastructure as well. And the exciting things that are happening on that front are going to take us to the future in a more efficient and economical way while also creating less of a carbon footprint. printer. Some things that are exciting are 3D printing. And we've all seen this where computers, 3D printing, whatever it is, anything as small as a glass to a home. These things, you can 3D print a home. You can put just about any sort of material in one of these 3D printers, big and small, and create whatever you want.

29:29And it doesn't have to be to scale. It can be bespoke. And so that efficiency right there is amazing and cost saving. So 3D printing of homes and buildings, that's going to be huge and part of our infrastructure. So that's exciting, but that's really new. What I discovered also in this book though, is what's old is new again, and exciting right in front of our eyes. And that is the use of wood. Now, you know, Dan, And I'm a tree hugger. I love me some trees. And for years, I just cringed every time I saw a tree get cut down. I cringed every time I saw a piece of wood get wasted, even some chopsticks.

30:17I mean, when we're wasting, we're wasting wood. And what I learned in this book is our new use of what's called mass timber, which is basically taking blocks of wood and gluing them together in some cases, putting them together like Lego logs and building not just small homes, but mid-range skyscrapers, mid-high rises, mid-rises, and doing that in a cost-effective way and doing it in a lower carbon footprint and one that makes you feel good. When you go into a place that's wood paneled, and I'm talking about the ones from the 70s, but a nice new log cabin or a lodge in the mountains, you walk in and the pine paneling is just kind of surrounding you.

31:07It feels good. And there's a term for that in designing. It's called biophilic design. And it's based on the fact that before all these walls and windows that we live in now, we evolved in nature. We evolved outside. And so we naturally feel more at peace when we're inside, when it feels a little bit like the outside. That's why we like to have plants inside, maybe an aquarium inside, maybe just a little splash of wood here and there to give you that warmth of the outdoors brought in. So mass timber buildings, you see them going up, especially in these mid-sized cities, feel good in that way. They take half the time to build, if not less.