Ceasefire In Iran And The State Of The US Job Market

0:00This message comes from Rosetta Stone. Spring travel coming up? Rosetta Stone has been the trusted leader in language learning for over 30 years. Ready to start learning a new language this spring? Visit rosettastone.com slash NPR today. Hi, it's Jen. Just a quick heads up before we start this show. The news is rapidly changing and things may have changed by the time you hear this episode. So stay up to date with all the latest by listening to your local NPR member station and visiting NPR.org.

0:36Iran, the United States, and Israel have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, though details of the Pakistan-mediated agreement remain murky. The deal comes after days of threatening messages from President Trump, who said in a social media post on Tuesday, April 7th, an entire civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. Here's Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth speaking Wednesday morning at the Pentagon. You see, had Iran refused our terms, the next targets would have been their power plants, their bridges and oil and energy infrastructure targets. They could not defend and could not realistically rebuild.

1:15It would have taken them decades and we were locked and loaded. They couldn't defend against it. President Trump had the power to cripple Iran's entire economy in minutes. But he chose he chose mercy. He spared those targets because Iran accepted the ceasefire under overwhelming pressure. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Arakshi says ships will be able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz for the next two weeks in compliance with the ceasefire. Arakshi also says Iran will stop regional attacks as long as it is not attacked. According to HRA &A, that's a U.S.-based human rights group, more than 1 ,700 Iranian civilians have been killed in Iran since the start of the war.

2:01At least 13 U.S. military service members have died and hundreds were wounded. I'm Jen White. You're listening to the 1A Podcast. Today, what do we know about the ceasefire? And what does a pause in fighting mean for the region? We'll answer these questions and more after this short break. Stay with us.

2:21This message comes from Rosetta Stone. Spring travel coming up? Rosetta Stone has been the trusted leader in language learning for over 30 years. Ready to start learning a new language this spring? Visit rosettastone.com slash NPR today. This week on Up First, with the president threatening to target Iran's civilian infrastructure, such as power plants and bridges, even as gas prices in the U.S. continue to climb, what are the chances of an end to the war in Iran? Listen for updates every morning on the latest overnight news on Up First. Find us on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

2:58Welcome back to the 1A podcast. We're talking about the ceasefire underway in the U.S.-Israel war in Iran. Joining us is Greg Karlstrom. He's the Middle East correspondent for The Economist, and he joins us from Doha, Qatar. Greg, welcome back to the program. Thanks for having me. So as we said, the details of this plan are a bit murky, but just lay out what we do know so far. Well, what was announced, as you said, is a two-week ceasefire that buys time for negotiations about a permanent end to the war. Those talks are meant to begin on Friday in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, which has been playing a central role in mediating the talks.

3:39The Strait of Hormuz, again, as you said, meant to be reopened, although it's not clear exactly when that is going to happen and exactly how many ships are going to be able to transit the strait each day. The Iranians have said there will be technical limitations. They called it on passage through the strait, and we don't have details yet. And then there's no clarity about how the mediators are going to bridge the enormous gaps between the Americans and the Iranians on a very compressed timetable. They are miles apart in what they're asking for in a permanent ceasefire, and they have two weeks to try and resolve those differences.

4:17Pakistan mediated this agreement, but China played a role here, too. Tell us how they stepped into this agreement. The thinking in the region is that China applied some pressure on the Iranians and encouraged them to take the ceasefire. China has a close relationship with Iran. It's the main customer for Iranian oil, which continues to be exported in spite of American sanctions on that oil trade. And so China does have some influence with the regime in Tehran. And obviously, it is not happy about what's happening in the Gulf right now because it is impacting the supply of oil and petrochemicals and other commodities that come from the Arab Gulf states, which are not able to export essentially anything since the war began.

5:06Now, Pakistan's prime minister says the ceasefire will also apply to Lebanon. But that's where there seems to be some confusion. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Lebanon is not included. and we should remind people here that as part of Israel's war on Hezbollah, the Israeli military has created what they call a security zone in southern Lebanon. At least 1 ,500 people have been killed in Lebanon and more than 1.2 million have been displaced since February 28th. So how does Lebanon figure into this deal? Well, not only does the ceasefire not seem to apply to Lebanon so far, but this has been by far the bloodiest day of the war in Lebanon just in the past couple of hours.

5:48the Israeli Air Force carried out a coordinated wave of more than 100 airstrikes in various parts of the country. Entire buildings were knocked down. Hundreds of people are said to be killed and injured by these Israeli strikes. Hospitals are overwhelmed. They're putting out urgent calls for blood. It's by far the worst attack that we have seen since this war began about a month ago. And I think the question right now is, Pakistan says Lebanon was meant to be included. Israel says it was not. What is the American position on this? We haven't heard anything from the Trump administration. If they told the Israelis that they needed to cease firing in Lebanon, I think Israel would have no choice but to comply with that.

6:30But we haven't heard from the administration. And there is concern in the region that if Israel keeps doing what it's doing in Lebanon in this incredibly provocative way, that it might jeopardize the broader ceasefire, the one with Iran, and it might push the region back into a wider conflict. Greg, you're in Doha. I wanted you to sort of help us understand what the run-up to the ceasefire agreement was like for ordinary citizens in the region, people who are just living day to day. It was a nerve-wracking wait throughout the day yesterday, Tuesday, as we got closer to that deadline, which was set for three o 'clock in the morning here, local time, everyone was very, very concerned about what Iran might do in retaliation.

7:17If Trump made good on these horrific threats of erasing a civilization, Iran said the entire region would be plunged into darkness. And so people in the Gulf were concerned about strikes on power plants, on desalination facilities, stockpiling bottled water, filling up their cars with gas, discussing contingency plans. It was a very nerve-wracking wait. Then, 90 minutes before the deadline, Trump announces this ceasefire, and there was a sense of relief across the region that we had stepped back from the abyss. But concern mounting now, not only because of these Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, but also because Iran has not stopped firing at the Gulf.

7:57It's been actually one of the heaviest days of missile and drone attacks on Gulf countries. Now, some of that might be retaliation for what the Iranians claim was an attack on a petrochemical plant earlier today. It's not clear who carried out that strike. Some of it might be individual Iranian commanders who are cut off from their leaders in Tehran, who either aren't aware there's been a ceasefire or are choosing to ignore it. We don't know why exactly Iran is keeping up this heavy tempo of fire, but there have been, I think, close to 100 missile and drone attacks across the Gulf today. Well, that takes us to statements from Vice President J.D.

8:36Vance. He spoke about the war while traveling in Budapest on Tuesday. He's there to support Prime Minister Viktor Orban ahead of Hungary's election on Sunday. And these remarks were made prior to the ceasefire agreement. The United States has largely accomplished its military objectives. There are still some things that we'd like to do, for example, an Iranian ability to manufacture weapons that we'd like to do a little bit more work on militarily. But fundamentally, the military objectives of the United States have been completed. So that means, as the president has said, very shortly, this war is going to conclude.

9:06Craig, as we've spoken about before, the White House's explanation for this war, it has been mercurial, I think is a fair way to describe it. When the Trump administration says Iran has been defeated militarily. Does that stand up to what we're actually seeing in the region? I think so long as Iran can continue to fire missiles and drones at its neighbors and block traffic going through the Strait of Hormuz, I don't think it has been defeated militarily. It has been degraded. Absolutely. There's been tremendous damage to its leadership. Dozens of top officers have been killed. Its Navy, its Air Force, neither of which were particularly powerful to begin with, but they have been battered.

9:52And also the supply chain that it uses to produce missiles, there have been widespread strikes on factories and other things. So its ability to replenish its missile arsenal, I think, is in doubt here. But it still has thousands of missiles, probably tens of thousands of drones that it is using to carry out these attacks. And the U.S. has not been able to stop that. It also still has 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, near weapons grade, which is unaccounted for, which maybe as part of negotiations over a deal, Iran will agree to either ship out of the country or blend down to a lower level of purity.

10:31But if that doesn't happen, if there's no deal, then Iran will have this stash of fissile material and I think very strong motivation to try and fashion it into a nuclear bomb. So I think it is very premature to say that Iran has been militarily defeated. And when you say they have strong motivation? Do you think that motivation has grown as a result of this war? Absolutely, for two reasons. One is Ali Khamenei, the previous supreme leader who was killed in an Israeli strike on the first day of the war. He was someone who wanted to walk Iran up to the nuclear threshold. He wanted to do a lot of the groundwork to be able to build a nuclear weapon, but he didn't want to cross that threshold and actually build one.

11:13And so I think with him gone, with new leaders in charge of the country, you remove an obstacle to actually building a nuclear weapon. And then the second reason why Iran is more motivated is it's been attacked twice in the past year, first by Israel last summer and then by America and Israel this year. And so there are a lot of people in the Revolutionary Guard and other hardline circles in Iran who are now arguing that the only way to prevent future attack is to have a nuclear deterrent. So as we look ahead to the ceasefire talks in Islamabad on Friday, what are you watching for? What are you listening for?

11:53I think the first question for me is who will represent both sides at those talks? The thinking is that Mohammed Khalidbaugh, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, will represent Iran. If that is the case, he is a serious, influential figure. It means Iran is probably serious about engaging in talks. On the American side, Iran would like J.D. Vance, the vice president, to run these talks. They think not only is he someone of very high stature, but he comes from the more isolationist wing of the Republican Party. He might be more amenable to a deal. So I'm curious to see who the Trump administration sends to represent the U.S.

12:27That's Greg Karlstrom, Middle East correspondent for The Economist. Greg, as always, thank you. Thank you. So to come, the most recent jobs numbers show hiring has slowed across industries. How are Americans dealing with the slow labor market? That's after the break.

13:08child's learning. Get IXL now. Receive 20 % off an IXL membership if you sign up today at IXL.com slash NPR. Welcome back to the What A podcast. We'll keep you updated as the ceasefire and the U.S.-Israel war in Iran remains underway, but let's shift gears a bit. Hiring in most of the country is at a virtual standstill. That's according to the most recent labor market figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The hiring rate fell to 3.1 percent in February. That's the lowest since April 2020, when the COVID pandemic caused businesses to shutter. Job openings also dropped over 358 ,000 compared to January.

13:50The stagnant job market is also being felt by young people. According to an analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the unemployment rate for college grads reached 5.6 percent last year, outpacing the national rate of 4.2. And a November report by the Stanford Digital Economy Lab shows a substantial decline in job openings for early career workers in fields most vulnerable to artificial intelligence. So how is the current labor market being felt by Americans? And while a two-week ceasefire in the U.S. and Israel's war in Iran is underway, could that conflict make a chilly jobs market even colder.

14:29Joining us to discuss is Heather Long. She's the chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. Heather, welcome back to the program. Great to be here. Thank you. And we're hearing from you already. We heard from a member of the 1A Tax Club who writes, I work in payroll for a major provider. We are projecting a near apocalyptic retraction of the job market. So, Heather, let's start with these most recent job numbers. Again, the Bureau of Labor Statistics report was released last Tuesday, it showed unemployment remained low and that 178 ,000 jobs were added in March. So that sounds like good news, but what were your biggest takeaways from the report?

15:08I mean, I definitely said, wow, when I saw the report come out on Friday, 178 ,000 jobs added was the best for since December 2024. So it was a big number and a very big positive number. The other thing that I've been stressing is I've been calling it a hiring recession. You mentioned the hiring rate, super weak, one of the weakest we've seen since 2020. But what was encouraging about March is there was more hiring across a number of industries. It wasn't just healthcare. Healthcare has really been pretty much the only sector hiring for the past year or so. But we saw construction adding jobs.

15:49We saw and even transport and warehouse, adding jobs, retail, manufacturing. So it was like seeds of hope. And of course, now we know we've got the war in Iran, all this uncertainty. I wouldn't quite use the word apocalyptic that the texter said, but it certainly looks grim. And we're hearing that while jobs are being created, hiring is at a standstill. Help us understand that dynamic. Yeah, it can be a little confusing. So a couple of things are going on.

16:30Basically, there are some jobs that are being added in the economy, but it's very, very anemic right now. And while there were a lot of jobs added in March, and I was just kind of celebrating that March figure, February was a big negative number. So it looked like there were job losses in February. And we've kind of seen this yo-yo effect of March was good, February was bad, January was good, December was bad for almost a year now. And so when you step back in the economy, I like to look at things for the past year. In the past year, the US economy has only added 260 ,000 jobs and almost all of them were in healthcare.

17:12And to put that in perspective, normally in a year, if we step back and talked about a year, we would be talking about millions of jobs added. So that's, you can see how anemic this is. You can see why anyone looking for a job is struggling so much, particularly if they don't work in healthcare. Well, speaking of the economy, let's bring a new voice in. Heidi Shearholtz is the president of the Economic Policy Institute. That's a nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank tracking economic issues. She was also chief economist at the U.S. Department of Labor from 2014 to 2017 under the Obama administration.

17:48Heidi, it's great to have you. Thank you for having me. Now, Heidi, the jobs report is just one tool economists use to understand the overall health of our economy. What can we learn about the state of the economy more broadly from what the BLS reported last week? Yeah, it's a very good question. I think one important thing to keep in mind here is that our major data sets that we have about the economy are largely capturing effects prior to the launching the war in Iran. So they're mostly not capturing what's going on. So in some ways, it's a tricky time to have a conversation about the economy because the data sort of haven't caught up with the big, big event that's happening.

18:29But we are seeing, I mean, you have the jobs numbers that come out, a sort of companion piece to that are the jolts numbers, the job openings and labor turnover survey. And Heather sort of alluded to this, but that's where we really can get good data on the thing that people are talking about being the low hire, low fire job market, where if you have a job right now, you do not actually have an elevated risk. at this moment with the data that we have, you do not have an elevated risk of being laid off, but the hiring rate is extremely low. So again, even before we're baking in the effects of the Iran war, the hiring rate right now is at the levels that it was in like 2011, 2012, like coming, you know, sort of coming out of the depths of the great recession.

19:27So it, It is a very hard time. You're okay if you have a job, but if you are looking for a job, and that includes young people, young graduates who are now entering the labor market, it's really rough. You mentioned the war in Iran as a factor here, but what other factors are leading to this stagnant job market, Heidi? There are many. So I think one thing in the war in Iran contributes to this is uncertainty. When there's a ton of economic policy uncertainty, businesses hold, right? Like they're just not going to take that moment to do a big expansion that they might have otherwise been planning.

20:12So that cuts down on job growth. We have seen massive cuts to the federal workforce, like more than 350 ,000 federal jobs cut since Trump took office. So that's a big hit in and of itself. And then there's, that doesn't include the hits to companies that get federal contracts who are actually in the private sector, but they get federal contracts. So we're seeing all sorts of layoffs related to that. The immigration crackdown is big and that hurts the immigration enforcement, the mass deportations that we're doing right now, it doesn't just mean that immigrants lose their jobs. I think there's this sort of fallacy that, oh, you deport an immigrant worker and then that job is just available for a U.S.-born worker to take that job.

21:04That is not how the economy works. So an example that I like to use to help illustrate that is consider construction. You deport an immigrant workforce of housing roofers and framers, and then just fewer houses get built. So U.S.-born electricians and plumbers also lose their jobs. So our immigration enforcement regime, our mass deportation regime, is also having a big negative impact on the labor market. Well, we got this message from another member of the tax club. My son would love to change jobs. His biggest concern, does it include health insurance? That is the pity of the U.S. When we talk about the types of jobs that are being added right now, Heather, are these jobs that come with a salary and health insurance and other benefits?

22:03It's a great question. We don't have all the detail that we would like to have on all the benefits that come with each job that we're seeing. But I would say, broadly speaking, it's a weird environment that we're in right now where employers have the upper hand again. You know, after many, many years coming out of the pandemic, employees had a lot of power. They were able to negotiate for flexibility to work from home. They were able to negotiate for really big pay raises, even a lot of entry-level workers or jobs at grocery stores types of places. We're seeing big pay raises in 2022, 2023. And all of that has been reversed.

22:47We're now in a world where there's a lot of people hunting for work. There's more people unemployed than there are job openings. And so the whole calculus has flipped. And so that's why you see that strain that that young worker is feeling where as he looks around, you know, could he even find a job? If he does get a job offer, you know, what kind of benefits? And if he tries to negotiate and use all those good tips we've all learned over the years to negotiate your salary, employers will just say no sometimes. And I've had friends who've tried to ask for more benefits or more time off or a higher salary.

23:24And the response from the employer lately has been, forget it. I'm going to move on to the next candidate. You're out of the pool now. Well, we're also getting messages about the experience of finding a job right now. Another text club member writes, my son did an internship recently at a pharmacy that provided medications to nursing homes. He was shocked when he observed managers come to the break room and laughing that they had made interviewees cry. why this job market is unlike any other ever. Heidi, what do we know about how just that interview process, the application process is working for people who are seeking jobs?

24:05It's a good question. I do think some of the, that's a horrible story that I just, and I do think that maybe that the environment that we're in is sort of unleashing some of that kind of behavior among employers, because it really has, it really, as Heather said, it's just the, when you have a really tight labor market, when jobs are available, employers know that they have to treat people decently and give them decent wages in order to attract and retain the workers that they need. We're not in that situation, right? Like it's really hard to find a job. And so it sort of can unleash sort of the worst kind of behavior.

24:49And so I'm not surprised. It's disheartening, but I'm not surprised to hear that kind of thing. I have also heard stories of young people just applying, applying, applying, and just not hearing anything. So yeah, it's a struggle. It's a struggle. Going through a process and then the potential employer just sort of disappears. I've heard so many stories along that line. Yeah. Yep. Yeah, it is. We are, I mean, it really does come back to that sort of who has the leverage and the power when the unemployment rate is low, when the labor market is tight, that power shifts a little bit to workers. And now it has shifted away from job seekers in that way.

25:31So yeah, that these are all good examples of how that plays out. We got this email from David who says finding a job means one has to painfully come to grips with being willing to move where the jobs are. Fortunately, I'm single and can accept a job in New Mexico, and I'm relocating this month from the Northeast. Heidi, talk about whether there's a geographical component here that we're seeing more concentration of job growth in certain parts of the country than others. I will defer to Heather if she has any particular information on specific areas that may be seen particularly like being robust in terms of job growth.

26:12But what we know is that generally this slowdown is happening nationwide. So there's always some states that have higher unemployment rates than others. That's always, always the case in good times and bad times. But this general slowdown is really, really happening across the board. But I do think one of the things that that caller talked about is what that means in many cases is that because hiring is lower, people will be more successful if they are able, if they're in the position to be able to be super flexible and to be able to take jobs that they might not otherwise take in a really strong labor market, which could mean a job that requires them to relocate.

27:01Yeah. Heather, What would you add? Is there a geographical component here? There is somewhat, and Heidi talked about this earlier, mainly due to the loss of over 350 ,000 federal workers and their jobs in the past year. So the highest unemployment rate in the nation right now is in the District of Columbia, and that's 6.7 percent. So almost a 7 % unemployment rate compared to that national number that's much lower in the 4.2, 4.3 % rate. Other states that are at the top of that list, Delaware, Nevada is pretty high up. So a lot of these states or places, Alaska, that have more of a higher concentration of federal workers.