Education: The Decline of American Higher Education on the World Stage

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0:24For decades, U.S. colleges and universities have been regarded as among the best in the world. From the Ivy League to flagship state research institutions, thousands of students and professors from around the globe flock to the U.S. year after year to study, teach, and innovate. International students represent about 6 % of all higher education students. That's about 1.1 million students. But last year, international student enrollment fell by a fifth compared to the year before. That's the largest percentage change since the pandemic, according to federal data. And early data suggests that drop in enrollment continued this year as the Trump administration ramps up its efforts to restrict student visas.

1:06Those efforts are currently tied up in federal court. I'm Jen White. You're listening to the 1A podcast. Today on 1A, how did the U.S. begin losing dominance in higher education? And what does this decline mean for students, faculty, and innovation in this country? That's right after this.

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2:07Austin Tice is an American journalist who disappeared over a decade ago while reporting in Syria. And for years, we've been searching for him. This looks like a secret passage. I'm just pushing it off so he can get in. Go, go, go. Listen to Where is Austin Tice from NPR's Embedded and BBC Radio 4 on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts. Let's meet our guests. Joining us from Boston is John Marcus. He's a senior higher education reporter at the Hechinger Report, and he's here to lead us through his recent reporting on international students in the U.S. John, welcome back. Thanks so much for having me.

2:46And with us from Princeton, New Jersey, is Rona Aiden. She's the founder of the college admissions consulting firm, Oriole Admissions, and she spoke to John for his piece. Rona, thanks for joining us. Thank you so much for having me as well. We're also hearing from you, Ala in New York, who is a member of the 1A Tax Club, writes, I would never have chosen to come to the U.S. to study under today's climate with this level of hate, xenophobia, surveilling, and policing, especially considering how complicit colleges have been. John, in your recent piece for the Hechinger Report, you write that drops international student enrollment didn't start with the Trump administration.

3:22But the recent funding cuts, the visa revocations and restrictions, attacks on academic freedom have accelerated the trend. But when did the decline in enrollment begin? What key factors contributed to it? The most important factor in the decline in international enrollment was actually the same thing that's on the minds of a lot of American families and domestic students, which is cost. Although the United States does have still, as you noted, what's considered the best higher education system in the world, it's also the most expensive. And that had already begun to have an effect on the number of students that were coming here.

4:03The numbers are beginning to already soften when last year, as you noted, the numbers were down by 22%. It's a little early so far in this semester to know where we'll be. But there are authoritative projections that we'll lose another 111 ,000 international students this year. Rona, you've worked with many prospective college students for over a decade. many of them international. What, if any, changes in demand for U.S.-based colleges are you noticing among your clients? So what I am seeing among our international families is the interest in U.S. universities is still fairly high, but it does tend to be focused on the strongest schools out there.

4:47So families are interested in Ivy League institutions, Ivy Peer institutions because they want that strong brand and really strong reputation, academic experience that will come with studying at those schools. The change that I am seeing is there are more backup options that families are requesting. So they are considering U.S. universities, but they want to also make sure that they are considering colleges in other countries, including the UK, Canada, Europe, and Asia. John, just help us understand why this trend matters if you're not an active part of higher education, if you're not a student, if you're not a prospective student, or a faculty at a university.

5:31Why is this something that matters for the country? For so many reasons. So at a time when we're talking a lot about the balance of trade, higher education is actually our sixth largest service export. And it's hard to think of education as an export until you understand what that means is that these international students that come here represent$40 billion a year for the American economy. And now we're losing significant pieces of that. Equally importantly, I think what's not widely understood is that most of those international students, more than half, are at the graduate level and many at the doctoral level.

6:08And those are students that study subjects that we don't produce enough domestic students to go into, mainly science, technology, engineering, and math. And so many of them stay and they fill important roles at U.S. companies or they start their own companies that hire Americans. That pipeline has narrowed. At the same time, international competitors are pouring significant resources into their higher education systems, most notably China, which has already passed us in the production of doctoral graduates in STEM. They are producing 50 % more than we are. Now that obviously to some degree represents the larger population in China, but the pace of doctoral production in China is five times faster than what's happening in the United States.

7:02And right now, in response to federal funding cuts, some universities in the United States aren't taking any new doctoral candidates at all. Overall, top research universities are taking 15 % fewer. So while we're seeing the numbers ramping up in other countries, we're actually retreating. That echoes this email we got from Kit, who says, Trump is doing China a huge favor by running off the best and brightest doctoral and postdoc students from U.S. universities. I have worked with some of these people who stayed in the country and contributed. We are losing this knowledge to China and other countries.

7:36John, I can hear someone listening to our conversation and saying, well, if fewer international students are attending U.S. colleges and universities, wouldn't that be a good thing for American students, since at least in theory, that means more available spots? Generally not, because there aren't more U.S. students. We're seeing a decline overall in the number, not only the number of 18-year-olds who are the traditional age college students. We've all heard and spoken endlessly about the famous demographic cliff that hits now or soon, but the proportion of American high school graduates who are going to college is also down.

8:12There might be some competition for seats at the most selective universities and colleges, but generally, they're not only not taking seats that might otherwise have gone to Americans because there aren't Americans to fill them, international students are significantly subsidizing U.S. higher education institutions. What we've seen over the last year is that more than 300 universities in the U.S. have had significant budget cuts and layoffs, a number of them, a growing number of them, are attributing a big portion of that to the decline in the number of international students. So fewer international students actually means fewer programs for domestic students and higher tuition.

8:53And that's, I think, an equation that people haven't necessarily always put together. Well, we got this message from Misha in St. Louis, who's a member of the 1A Techs Club. I worked at a doctoral institution that depended heavily on international student enrollment. The reduction of this population has drastically impacted the budget, contributing to the closure of student housing and staff layoffs. The administration does not grasp how important the international community is to the production of knowledge and discovery in America. That talent is now funneling to other places that will benefit and overtake American scholarship.

9:29Rona, in addition to federal policies that make obtaining a student visa in the U.S. more difficult than in previous years, we're also seeing U.S. colleges slip in international rankings. How do those rankings factor into prospective students' decisions about where to study? Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think rankings are always important. Families are looking to understand where their student is going to get the best education and where the prospects for future career growth will be highest for them. So they are absolutely taking that into account. And I think that this comes back to my earlier point around the families that we are working with internationally are mostly focused on schools where they can see the return on investment, where they feel the rankings of those schools are very strong.

10:20And if they were to go, that would be very beneficial for their student. And if they are not able to get into that small pool of highly selective U.S. colleges, they're then interested in looking at other highly selective institutions in other places in the world. John, are we seeing universities and colleges in other parts of the world actively positioning themselves as an alternative to U.S. colleges and universities? Are they taking advantage of this moment? Very much so. Imperial College London this week is announcing scholarships for international students, including U.S. students. They are very much targeted at U.S.

10:58students, among others. This is unusual. International students don't always qualify for scholarships, including in the United States, where here's to the point about how much international students subsidize American universities. More than 80 percent of international students pay the full tuition. And in some large public universities, they also pay an international student surcharge. Only about 16 % of American students pay the full price. So these international students are extraordinarily important to the bottom lines of universities and colleges. And that includes in places like Texas, which turns out to be one of the four top destination states along with New York, California, and Massachusetts, and where large universities have already announced significant budget cuts and program cuts.

11:41So yes, and those international rankings, we tend not to pay as much attention to them here. we pay attention to the U.S. News rankings, which just came out this week. But these international rankings are extraordinarily influential. The two most important are the Times Higher Education rankings and the QS rankings. In those rankings, it's important to keep in mind, U.S. universities still dominate the top 10. But in the next 100, U.S. universities are beginning to move down and Chinese universities are moving up. The next edition of the Times Higher rankings comes out next week, and the editor of those rankings has already told me that U.S.

12:21universities will fall still further in those rankings. That's an important global sort of measure of what's happening here. Mark in Virginia emails, I obtained my undergraduate degree at the University of Wyoming in the early 80s. I had petroleum engineering friends from Canada and Saudi Arabia, Norwegian and Swedish business majors, and other friends from Africa. They all enhanced my experience. Trump's discouraging international students and professors from coming to the U.S. is to our detriment. It will take decades to recover. We also heard from Rodney, who emails, I agree with the Trump administration on most things.

12:56However, I do have concerns about colleges that are banking on international students to add to their coffers. All U.S. schools should have seats for domestic students that must be filled. Nothing is more frustrating than having your child denied admission due to capacity limits or predetermined ratios for international seats. John, to Rodney's question there, I mean, have colleges and universities set themselves up for this moment in the U.S. by relying on international students to bolster their coffers? Yes, I'm so glad you asked that. universities and colleges in the 2010s, when enrollment already began to decline, made themselves vulnerable by relying so heavily on international students.

13:39I've learned as a higher education journalist that many universities and colleges are focused mostly on the next fall entering class. Let's fill all those seats. And as the number of U.S. students began to decline, it's down by about 2 million since the last peak, which was in 2011. They did rely more and more heavily on graduate students, sorry, on international students, and particularly at the graduate level, which is a very important revenue source for universities and colleges. So the first glimmer of how badly they set themselves up to be vulnerable to that problem was COVID, when virtually no international students came, and now we're seeing that again.

14:20But again, I want to stress it's not entirely political. Even before the visa delays and the deportations and detentions, the international student market had begun to soften, not only because of the high cost of colleges and universities, but there are only so many people in the world from only so many families in so many countries that can afford to pay the full price of a U.S. higher education. And so where international students are coming from, although many of us have this perception that they're all coming from very wealthy Middle Eastern countries and from India and China. In fact, the growth areas are Africa and South and Central America.

14:58And those are not families that can continue to afford the full price. As a result, colleges and universities are having to discount their tuition or shift financial aid. So they're not making, they have fewer international students and they're making less money from the students that they are, that are still coming here. Well, let's go back to our voicemail box. Here's a message we got from one of you. Hi, I'm a faculty member at a Florida university. I work in the social sciences and humanities. In the past few years, under President Trump, had massive cuts to availability of funding. I've had grant proposals rejected because of the new priorities for research.

15:42And this is in in addition to Florida rules and limitations that have been going on since Ron DeSantis took office, which is similar to other policy moves in other states across the United States. So this is really putting a downward pressure on social sciences and humanities and the arts, which is leading many of my colleagues to look for jobs in other used states and perhaps other countries, because it's just untenable to continue an active research agenda here. Rona, how often do the families of the international students you work with talk about academic freedom in the U.S. and concerns about that under the current administration?

16:24I think what I find families are asking us about is, you know, ultimately, are they going to be able to have good prospects after they attend college in the U.S.? they're looking a little bit more around the chances for their particular student. I will say for us, those questions don't come up as much. It is more that they are thinking individually versus looking at a greater landscape of what is happening, but they just want to make sure that there's stability, that the prospects for their student are going to be strong and that if they're going to start university four years down the line, there wouldn't be some major policy shift that would impact their students' ability to continue with kind of the plan that they have set up with the future of potentially working in the U.S.

17:17or having other significant opportunities that they are seeking. John, really briefly, the caller mentioned state-level policy changes in Florida that are also affecting higher ed in that state. What kinds of shifts are we seeing in oversight and investment at the state level? Yeah, we're very focused on the federal policy changes, but many states have restricted speech and programs that can be taught at universities and tenure. And those have, in fact, encouraged faculty. Also, not only are international students not coming, but many top scholars are leaving and going to places like China. A Nobel Prize winning chemist from Berkeley just moved to China to open a lab at a Chinese university.

17:58That should also be concerning us. Well, that's John Marcus. He's a senior higher education reporter at the Hackinger Report. Also with us, Rona Aiden. She's the founder of the College admissions consulting firm, Oriole Admissions. John, Rona, thanks. Well, we have to take a quick break, but still to come, a PhD researcher in Atlanta weighs in on what it's like to be an international student right now. Stay with us.

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20:01He asked us not to use his full name because he fears potential retaliation from the federal government for speaking out. He joined us from Atlanta to discuss what it's like living in the U.S. on a student visa under the current administration. I grew up in Bhopal in India, so that's where I'm originally from. And I finished my high school. And for my bachelor's, I came to the U.S. when I was 17, and this was back in 2022. Initially, what made you consider a university outside of your home country? Purely the opportunities and resources, because the specific subjects that I was looking to get into, they weren't being taught properly where I was.

20:42And naturally, the best choice was the United States. That's where I believe the resources as well as the best education, the best opportunities for regarding my subject. Now, you're pursuing your doctorate in computer science at Georgia State University. How did you decide that that school was the right fit for you? Well, one thing that I was super concerned about was racism. Because, of course, from my perspective, I'm coming from an outside country. I haven't lived here. I've only seen movies. That's all I've seen. So I looked at, you know, a good diverse school, a good diverse city that would accept me.

21:21And I think Georgia State University was one of the top ones that I could think of. And what has your experience been like as an international student at the school? At the school, it's been great. There have been, of course, instances where I would say not great, but that's outside of the school. At the school particularly, it's a great school. And like I said, there's a lot of diversity that you would see, and it's a great environment. Now, last year, in response to campus protests around the country against Israel's war in Gaza, the Trump administration expanded its vetting measures for potential international students.

21:55The State Department also revoked 6 ,000 visas of students already in the country, and some of those students were accused of overstaying. Others had their visas canceled for offenses like assault, traffic violations, or alleged support for terrorism, though the State Department didn't specify what that means. How have you, your friends with student visas, felt the effects of these policies? One thing I would say is that I know a lot of my friends who would like to speak up on the issues that you just mentioned, but they cannot, especially as well as me. I try to do that, but there are a lot of things that I cannot publicly say because the administration correctly does look at social media accounts.

22:36And right after I came to the U.S., they also made a rule that you need to give your social media handles from the past five years. So with all of that as context, I felt comfortable not indulging in certain matters. But I do have a few friends, two of my friends, who had their visas revoked. They're both international students, same country as I am from. And it was a scary situation for them, for me, as their friend. And what was the reason given for the revocation? I believe the official reason that was stated was failure to maintain status. But in actuality, the reason was that they had a speeding ticket from a few months prior to that incident where they had to go to court.

23:24And in under a week, the charges were dismissed by the court. So it was a small issue back then. But they found out later that this was the reason that I got the visas revoked at that time. So how are you navigating the political and the legal landscape of being an international student? Because it shifts. Yes, definitely. And this is something I say to a lot of my friends, a lot of other people as well, that I wasn't particularly interested at all in politics and political matters. I try to stay out of it before coming to the U.S. But ever since I'm in the U.S., I'm having to wake up. And the first thing I do is check the news, check social media, check Twitter, and look at everything that's happening, trying to see if there's anything new that's affecting me.

24:14And it may seem like an exaggeration, but every week something comes up, a new rule or something along those lines that concerns me as an international student. And so do you have legal counsel or are you trying to navigate it all on your own? Legal counsel, I do not. And I believe most international students, they don't because they're already struggling financially. We come from third world countries mostly. We all have education loans, most of us. So that's usually not an option. So what we do actually is we do have support from our school itself. But I think the best, the most taken decision is staying out of all political matters.

24:56Just not discussing stuff. I think that's the route that most people, most of my friends take. If you were applying to college today, would you still consider pursuing higher education in the U.S.? I'm a little biased because my university, especially, my professors, they've treated me very nicely. and they've helped me a lot. But in general, I think it's a confusing decision. I think if, let's say, if I was applying to the U.S. back then when I was 17 and this was the landscape, I wouldn't. I would avoid the U.S. And how are you talking to maybe younger people in your home country who are at the point of making that decision for themselves to perhaps pursue higher education in the U.S.

25:49or stay home or try to apply in a different country. Are you giving any advice? Yes, and I try to base it off of my own experience. Based on my experience, what I tell them is that this is something a lot of people don't understand is that international students, they come here looking for education, a good education, good knowledge, as well as opportunities during their degrees or after their degrees, because firstly, we have to pay back our education loan. That's one thing. That's a whole other landscape. But in general, we come here to the US from our country. We sacrifice a lot. And so consequently, we look for opportunities.