ICYMI: Trump's Move For A Peace Deal In Ukraine

0:28You're listening to the 1A Podcast. So based on that, we're going to be doing secondary tariffs if we don't have a deal in 50 days. It's very simple. And they'll be at 100 percent. And that's the way it is. It can be more simple. It's just the way it is. I hope we don't have to do it. Trump was referring to the fact that Russia hasn't agreed to a peace deal with Ukraine. He also promised new tariffs if a peace deal doesn't come in 50 days. New sanctions are on the table, too. With NATO's Secretary General Mark Ruda by his side, Trump also announced the U.S. would help Europe send more weapons to Ukraine.

1:02Under the arrangement, NATO would buy American weapons and pass them to Kyiv. We discuss what this all means for the conflict with Idris Ali. He's a national security correspondent covering the Pentagon for Reuters. He joins us after the break. And be sure to stay up to date with all the latest by visiting npr.org.

1:24Idris, welcome back. Thanks for having me. So NATO leaders agreed to buy American weapons and send them to Ukraine. The president says European allies will pay for the systems, and that includes Patriot air defense missile systems. Then they do be transferred to Ukraine. What's the thinking behind this kind of indirect arms transfer? So, you know, it sort of represents evolution in the president's thinking. When he came into office, he was someone who publicly talked about how he could end the war pretty quickly. But I think over the past few months, he is realizing that that's not so easy because President Putin, you know, really holds a lot of cards in this situation.

2:03You know, ideologically, the president and a lot of his supporters have been opposed to providing U.S. weapons to Ukraine, saying, look, we have to look after our own security. And this is a sort of way to thread the needle, which is saying, you know, we're not going to, we, the United States, it's not going to, you know, send weapons for free. but we are willing to give them to Europe who are going to give the United States money and then they can send it to Ukraine. So it seems to be sort of this threading the needle of clearly a recognition that the war is not going to end anytime soon through a peace negotiation, but also playing to his base who have been very opposed to the United States sending tens of billions of dollars in weapons and security assistance to Ukraine over the past three years or so.

2:43How are European allies responding behind the scenes? You know, they also are in an interesting situation where they, you know, the NATO Secretary General has sort of thread the needle as well. You know, he sort of came to the White House. He knows, European countries know that Ukraine, you know, can't really fight in any meaningful way without the United States for assistance. And so they are sort of also reading the cards. They're also reading how President Trump sees the conflict. And so I think they have sort of come to the conclusion that, look, the only way we're going to get the United States on board is to chip in more money, a bit of flattery on the side, and make clear that they are willing to do their part.

3:23So, you know, as a whole, I think they are sort of comfortable with the idea. But what we're also realizing is, you know, the announcement yesterday that was made, while all well and good, leaves out some key details, right? Like who is going to give these weapons, the Patriot air defense systems that you mentioned, And the German defense minister spoke yesterday. He said, you know, Germany is sort of on board with the idea, but it would take months for them to actually negotiate the deal and then send them to Ukraine. So it's far from done. And I think some details need to be sort of ironed out.

3:54Idris, put this in context with what we've heard from President Trump about NATO. Yeah, look, in his first term, right, there were stories from cabinet members and other officials saying Trump is actually, you know, thinking about leaving NATO. And again, marks a pretty amazing evolution that yesterday he was sitting in the Oval Office with the NATO Secretary General talking about sending weapons to Ukraine. You know, his whole mantra for the past decade or so that he's been in office, you know, for the two terms has been NATO needs to pay more. NATO is paying more. And I think he is taking a lot of credit for it.

4:30I think it makes him more comfortable with the idea of working with NATO. And so it's a clear evolution. and it also sort of shows, you know, how this relationship with President Putin may be changing. You know, it's, again, one of those things that he thought he could bring an end to. He loves making deals. But Putin is a pretty potent adversary. And I think Putin knows that if he waits this out, he could get a pretty good deal potentially. And so I think it's the frustration with Putin sort of looking at how NATO is now paying more for its own defense. You know, they've sort of pledged significantly more in the coming years and coming decades.

5:05that I think he's getting comfortable with the idea that NATO might not be such a terrible alliance, which is something he thought not too long ago. So weapons are on the table. The president also threatened 100 percent secondary tariffs against Russia if there's no peace deal within 50 days. White House officials later clarified that secondary sanctions are on the table, too. So just explain what are secondary tariffs and sanctions in this context? Yeah. So, look, he had talked about putting 100 percent tariffs on Russia itself, right? Russia doesn't export that much to the United States, so that might not be that meaningful.

5:36What might be meaningful is the secondary sanctions. So that means if Russia is selling a product to another country, that other country would be sanctioned by the United States. In this case, Russia exports a lot of gas and oil to countries like India, Iran, Turkey, and China. And so all those countries then, you know, have the potential of being sanctioned by the United States, which is something most countries don't want to do just given how big the United States' economy is. So those secondary sanctions are, I think, what could cause quite a bit of pain to the Russian economy. Because if China stops buying Russian oil, that would actually have an impact on Russia's economy.

6:18And so I think that's where the sort of thinking is. He's given, you know, 50 days to Putin and Zelensky to come to some sort of agreement. If not, then those sanctions take effect. You know, I think it's also what looking at, you know, President Trump does seem to throw around days and timelines. It doesn't always stick to them. So I think a lot of people are sort of looking at, you know, is this a real timeline? Will he actually impose sanctions? We've seen, you know, sort of his play with tariffs with other countries not always happening in the same way he had said they would happen. So I think, you know, he's spoken about his intent.

6:48I think people and officials in Washington and around the world really are now looking to see if he's actually going to impose what he says he's going to impose. We're talking to Idris Ali, a national security correspondent covering the Pentagon for Reuters. Now, Idris, as you mentioned, throughout his presidential campaign, Trump promised to end the fighting between Ukraine and Russia on day one of entering office. And that, of course, didn't happen. But why has this task proven to be so difficult? Look, I think President Putin is sort of key in this, right? I mean, during the campaign, during the first administration, he was able to really deftly work with Trump, flatter him in a way, make him seem like he might be getting something.

7:31But if you're a presidential candidate, in this case, Trump, you come in saying, I'm going to end the war in days. It then goes to weeks and months. And you realize pretty quickly, and I think that's what's happening with Trump is, this person being President Putin doesn't want to come to an agreement. We had a story that just published a couple of hours ago, sort of looking at the thinking of President Putin. And he is clearly emboldened. He believes that the war economy in Russia can sort of weather the storm. And I think there's a longer term thinking from President Putin about being able to weather the American political system, hoping that people will lose interest.

8:08And, you know, I think that's what it comes down to. I think it was really interesting during the Oval Office meeting, President Trump talked about how he would, you know, go back to the White House and talk about how the war was coming to an end. And then his wife, Melania, would say, well, President Putin just bombed another town. I think this increasing sort of, you know, public proclamations by Trump and then being constantly disappointing probably weighed heavily on him. And I think at the end of the day, we saw the culmination in his decision, you know, a real change for him to agree to send more weapons, even if it's through NATO.

8:42Well, just to place this conversation in the context of this war that's now been churning for more than 1 ,200 days, over the weekend, Ukrainian officials said Russian air attacks killed at least two people and wounded 38 others. June saw the highest monthly civilian casualties in Ukraine in three years, with 232 people killed and 1 ,300 injured. Give us a big picture update on where the war stands now between these two countries. Yeah, it's been going on for more than three and a half years. Battle lines had been pretty steady, but we've seen some movement in the past few months and Russia is making slow progress.

9:21They control one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, which is pretty large. About 1.8 million people have died or been injured on both sides, but we don't actually have terribly accurate estimates right now. So that is a lot of loss of life. Both economies are suffering. And it's one of those things where, you know, the end is quite tough to see. You know, what do both countries want and how do they actually come to some common ground is really tough to see. You know, Putin feels emboldened. He believes he can take more Ukrainian territory. Ukraine is willing to negotiate, but they need some sort of guarantee from countries potentially in Europe, potentially in the United States.

10:02And it's really tough to see how those two things can sort of come to an agreement. And like you sort of said, this has been going on for, you know, since 2022, over a million people have died. And it's one of those things where they're fighting for inches and kilometers. But in the broader strategic goals, Russia doesn't seem to have met its goals, which it's laid out in 2022, which was taking over Kiev and Ukraine. Ukraine has fought pretty bravely, but at some point they will have manpower shortages, weapon shortages. I think they're trying to come to some sort of agreement before that comes to a head.

10:36So really briefly, Idris, now with this new weapons deal on the table, how are both sides positioning themselves for the months ahead? I think Ukraine is thrilled. Not too long ago, Zelensky was in the Oval Office being berated by the administration, and now he is getting weapons. Russia is digging in, being ready for the next few months, and also potential sanctions against their economy. That's Idris Ali, a national security correspondent covering the Pentagon for Reuters. Idris, as always, thanks for your time. Thanks for having me. This program comes to you from WAMU, part of American University in Washington, distributed by NPR.

11:15I'm Jen White. Thanks for listening. We'll talk more soon. This is 1A.

11:24Thank you.