Politics: Can Divides Over War Be Bridged At The G7 Summit?

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0:25On the southern shores of Lake Geneva in France, leaders of the G7 countries gathered this week for their annual summit. The group of seven of the world's largest economies was all but guaranteed to spend its time responding to the U.S. and Israel's war with Iran and the economic crisis that's followed. But news over the weekend about a breakthrough in the war and an agreement that could lead to a longer-term peace deal has shifted the focus to longer-term questions about the future of relations with Iran, its nuclear program, and the Persian Gulf. But leaders paired those questions with lots of smiles.

1:00Well, I have to say, I experienced this G7 summit as very constructive and really carried by a joint spirit. And at no point were there any personal disturbances. That's German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz on Wednesday. I'm Jen White. You're listening to the 1A Podcast. Today, what this G7 meeting reveals about the state of the U.S.'s relationship with its most important allies, especially after months of a war of choice with Iran. That's right after this.

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2:14Follow up first wherever you get your podcasts and start your day knowing what matters and why. This message comes from the NPR Wine Club, which has generated over$1.75 million to support NPR. Whether buying a few bottles or joining the club, learn more at nprwineclub.org slash podcast. Must be 21 or older to purchase. Let's get into the conversation with our guests. In studio with us is Akbar Shahed Ahmed. He's diplomatic correspondent for the news outlet Notice and author of Crossing the Red Line, Biden, his advisors, and Israel's war in Gaza. It's out in September. Akbar, welcome back to 1A.

2:55Thanks for having me, John. Also joining us is Will Todman. He's a senior fellow in the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. That's a think tank in Washington, D.C., where he joins us from now. Will, welcome to the program. Thanks so much for having me. So, Akbar, the G7 wraps up later today. What's come out of it that tells us the most about what's happening behind the scenes at the summit? Certainly this kind of message of camaraderie, friendship, we don't have any issues with Trump. You know, this is a very different tone from last year where there was the shock of the second Trump election, this idea that the Trump administration was coming in.

3:33Having last year said they felt U.S. traditional allies were slipping away, they weren't happy with how their societies were changing, they weren't happy with how they were contributing to the alliance. This year, the Trump administration didn't go in on the offense and Europeans went in with their own charm offensive. All of that said, Jen, this was papering over a lot of deep fundamental disagreements that are long term and are going to outlast this Trump presidency. And frankly, a lot of leaders who were there, President Macron, who was there, is not going to be in office next year. Prime Minister Starmer is on his way out.

4:04Friedrich Mertz, who can say in Germany what's going to happen. So for a lot of the leaders, this kind of message of we trust the Trump administration on Iran, we're not breaking ranks. It did paper over things like, for instance, Trump not having a one-on-one with the British Prime Minister, traditionally America's closest ally, instead having one-on-ones with Arab states, Arab leaders who were there at the summit. Where else has there been tension at this summit, especially between the president and the six other members? President Trump quite openly said, yet again, Ukraine is not our war. And that is not the message Europeans want to hear, particularly as they're looking at Ukraine looking to reach a deal, but to do so from a position of strength.

4:46So Europeans want to hear the U.S. is in Ukraine's corner. President Trump is saying we sell them weapons. We want you, the Europeans, to pay for it. We don't feel we have anything to do with this. That's a big sort of disagreement. You also saw President Trump continue to kind of veer into these outlandish ideas that are really concerning for Europeans. So, for instance, Lebanon, a major element of the war of choice with Iran, a major element of any peace that happens, the Iranians have said, President Trump came out and said, maybe Syria should go invade Lebanon, an idea that's fraught with decades of occupation, violence, instability between those two countries.

5:21And it's just not something that Europeans can see as feasible or positive for them, again, being much closer to the region. We'll talk more about Ukraine in a moment. But Will, given this provisional agreement the U.S. and Iran finalized over the weekend, and we should say the official text is still unpublished, but what questions about this deal are allies likely still wanting answers about from President Trump? Yeah, well, they have probably not seen this deal either. And so it's interesting that in the statement that came out, they said they welcomed the announcement of a deal and they praised President Trump's strong leadership.

5:57I think really trying to get in his good graces. But they ultimately probably do not know what is in it either, just like the rest of us. And so I think they would like more clarity on what it includes. But for them, their main priority is going to be reopening the Strait of Hormuz, having the resumption of maritime traffic that will start to bring down energy prices, which have affected Europe more and Japan and other members of the G7, I think more than here in the US. And so I think they really want reassurances that this deal is real. And they are prepared to try to bolster it. The UK and France have come up with an initiative to help secure the Strait of Hormuz by providing some of their naval assets and drones to help with demining.

6:46They want to show President Trump that they can share some of the burden. And so I think They're keen to articulate the fact that they can play a role now, even though when the war itself was going on, they wanted nothing to do with it whatsoever because they were fiercely opposed to it. So they're keen to show their support. But Akbar, what does the U.S. need from its G7 allies, including the EU, to make progress toward formally ending this war in Iran? So there's a lot the U.S. needs, right? Because let's even think about what Iran is looking for to kind of end the war. The reality of this is that President Trump cut a deal with Iran as the weaker party, essentially the losing party.

7:22It was on the Iranians' terms. It wasn't his terms of regime change. The Iranians want deep financial relief. That's going to be very tough from a U.S. perspective, where Congress, where other players can kind of hold up any money or sort of get in the way. Europeans have a lot more of that ability to either do business with Iran, trade, buy their oil, kind of give them this easing of pressure that they want. Europeans also have that technical nuclear expertise, Jen, that the U.S. government has pushed out en masse, out of the Energy Department, out of the State Department, and not included in any of the diplomacy with Iran.

7:56So in prior deals with Iran, like the 2015 JCPOA under President Obama, the Europeans were key players, right? Because they had that technical knowledge, and they were seen as a little bit of a bridge. As Will rightly pointed out, you know, Europeans are not feeling bought in yet into this process of diplomacy with Iran. Theoretically, we're entering a 60-day period, which is supposed to tackle highly enriched uranium. It's supposed to tackle the strait. You need their expertise. You need their buy-in. Just want to note here that Bloomberg News published a 14-point draft memorandum. Whether it matches the official text of this memo of understanding is unclear, but if people want to read a little further, they can do so there.

8:37Well, what other priorities were on the agenda for the G7 before the news over the weekend of this interim agreement? So they were also going to be talking about Ukraine. And I think President Trump wanted to see more commitments from the Europeans to share more of the burden there. Of course, we've seen a real drop in U.S. support for Ukraine. And I think for the Europeans, they wanted to try and make sure that President Trump was on their side. They feel that the tide is turning in Ukraine's favor. and they want to make sure that President Trump isn't going to do anything, that could jeopardize the Ukrainians' ability to continue to bolster its position vis-a-vis Russia.

9:16But there are also questions about the economy and Chinese exports. They discussed this idea that they think that China is unfairly dumping its exports around the world, damaging markets through its use of subsidies. So I think that is another key piece. And then also AI as well. And we've seen tensions with AI between the US and its allies just in the past week with President Trump's decision to ban Anthropic from using Fable, its most advanced software there outside of the US. So there are real tensions bubbling away here. But I was struck that there were so many opportunities for issues to derail this, for it to be a disaster of a summit.

10:11You'll remember last year President Trump left early. That does not seem to have happened. And I think that's in part because at this stage President Trump realizes that he does need the support of other world powers, other global leaders in his efforts. as he continues to sell this deal that he has come to, or he says he has come to with Iran. And ultimately, I think he thinks it's not in his interest now to have even more rifts as he's about to continue to face a lot of domestic opposition to the terms of the deal here in the United States. We usually see a leader's statement signed by each of the seven countries.

10:49It typically comes out on the last day of the G7 summit. On Wednesday, the G7 leaders put out a joint statement that expressed strong support for Ukraine and for a final negotiated peace with Iran. Akbar, considering the fact that President Trump signed onto this statement and yet still says Ukraine is not the U.S.'s problem, what do you make between the distance between what he's saying and what he actually did at the G7? It really speaks to this philosophical disconnect that remains, right, where Washington still believes that President Vladimir Putin is a partner for peace And Europeans feel not only is he trying to grab as much of Ukraine as he can, he's now looking at NATO members.

11:30He's now looking at the Baltic states. He might even be looking at Sweden. So there's that disconnect. And it gets to this point of that where there is opportunity for cooperation on Ukraine or even on China, the Europeans are actually moving in the Trump administration's direction, limiting trade with China. Sometimes the Trump administration's narrative, rhetoric and ideas are making that really hard. And there's a stubbornness and inflexibility on the U.S. side where the Europeans are often bending over backwards for the U.S. Well, let's take a quick break. But coming up, how Ukraine's security and the U.S.

12:05midterm elections are showing up at this summit.

12:11This is Eric Glass. On This American Life, one thing we like is a good mystery. Sometimes about really big things. But most times, the little mysteries are the best. Our lost and found is currently filled with pants. I don't know. I've never seen this happen. This is true? This is true. Mysteries of every size, each week. This American Life, wherever you get your podcasts. This week on Up First from NPR News, President Trump is at the G7 in France and is supposed to sign a peace deal with Iran. That deal, if it happens as planned, will have big effects on the global economy and more. And we will track the changes as they unfold.

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13:38Must be 21 or older to purchase. Back to our conversation on the G7 summit in France, the first G7 gathering of the world's major economies since the U.S. and Israel's war with Iran began. Well, bigger picture, what problems has this war created in the Middle East? Problems at the region and the world we'll be dealing with for months, if not years to come. I think the biggest challenge is the total breakdown in security in the Gulf and the shattering of the sense of the Gulf being an island of stability in an otherwise troubled region. This is something that Arab Gulf states really feared. This was their nightmare scenario.

14:21And so I think going forward, we will see them diversifying their security partnerships. To some degree, there will be opportunities for other members of the G7 there as they increase their security engagements with Arab Gulf states. I was in Qatar a few weeks ago, and I heard interest in new deals with European states, with Canada, with South Korea and Japan. And so I think in some ways that indicates a shift away from the US-dominated security architecture. But I think ultimately this shows that in this current geopolitical environment we're in, there are very rarely clean outcomes from these conflicts.

15:03We've seen Ukraine be able to stand up to Russia. We've now seen Iran be able to stand up to the United States. And so while various actors can impose costs and can try to use their military power to undermine their adversaries, it's very, very difficult for any of them to forge a more stable order. And so ultimately what this shows is we're now in a much more unstable global system This is a period of disorder. And I think that will really shift the incentives of different actors as they try to navigate it and try to secure their own interests, sometimes working against the U.S., not in tandem with it.

15:44Well, Will, I know we have to let you go in a moment, but we'll also talk about the NATO summit a bit later. What's the biggest issue you're watching for with that summit in July? So to me, it's the transformation of Turkey's role within NATO. I think if we go back a few years, Turkey was considered sort of the black sheep of NATO. It was seen as having too close a relationship with Russia. And there were real tensions between Turkey and its European allies as well over migration and other issues. But now we see Turkey having transformed its role. I think Turkey is now playing a much bigger role in the Middle East.

16:25It has forged an important partnership with Syria, but also there is growing alignment with Saudi Arabia, with Pakistan, and with Qatar as well. And so I think we'll see a much more confident Turkey showing that it can play an important role in shaping the contours of the new Middle East that emerges after this war between the US, Israel, and Iran. And so I think that's going to be interesting. And the fact, of course, that the summit is in Turkey sort of adds to this. I think for Erdogan, he's really going to bask in the attention and he's going to have a much easier time in engaging with the other members, other NATO leaders.

17:07Well, just a quick note here before we let you go, Will. The Turkish opposition won a pretty shocking victory in local elections in spring 2024. And it was the first real loss Erdogan experienced since his AKP party came to power. Does that shift the future of Turkey's role? Well, I think, unfortunately, Turkey has continued down an authoritarian pathway, and we've seen Erdogan really clamp down on his opposition, including mayors of important Turkish cities. So I think he's sort of clamping down on opposition domestically. But at the same time, some of these developments that we've seen over the past few years do work in his favor.

17:49I think the fact that he now has a very strong relationship with Syria, the fact that large numbers of Syrians are returning to Syria as well, Syrian refugees who were in Turkey, I think this bolsters Erdogan's standing. And again, I think this bolsters his utility to other NATO allies as well. So I think they're probably likely to turn a blind eye to some of those authoritarian tendencies and to really seek new ways to partner with Turkey on securing their interests. And one of those is going to be the idea that Turkey could play a role in developing alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz with land trade routes for and energy routes through the Middle East.

18:37And I think this is something that we're going to see Turkey touting, and that's something that European states in particular are going to be very keen to see because they really do worry that Iran has the ability to continue to threaten maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz again, no matter what President Trump says. Well, Will Todman, thanks for speaking with us. Thanks so much for having me. Well, Todd Min is a senior fellow in the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. It's a think tank in Washington, D.C. We're still here with Akbar Shahed Ahmed of the news outlet Notice.

19:09Akbar, I want to circle back to this question about the problems this war in Iran has created, not just in the Middle East, not just in the region, but for the world. And we heard Will talk a lot about security, but what other issues are you watching? I think the human toll of the war and the choice to embroil not just the people of Iran, the people of Lebanon who saw U.S. and Israeli assaults on them, but people globally who have paid a price, right? Whether it's in Pakistan, whether it's in the Philippines, whether it's in Europe, where you've seen school closures, office closures, shortages of fertilizer driving up prices.

19:45That's all a choice with no clear strategic gain. And that's something you don't go back from, right? The reality that the U.S., even if it's now made a deal, put so many lives on the line, that's sort of now in the global DNA and global discussion about what does U.S. global leadership mean? How much can we trust President Trump or anyone? And how is that perhaps compounded by the U.S.'s withdrawal from the international aid landscape? Right. Of course, the U.S. would previously have been a development partner, and instead it's slashing what it's offering. So even in Lebanon, for example, where the U.S.

20:21has traditionally said it supports the Lebanese state against Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia there, they're slashing the amount, the Trump administration, that they want to give the Lebanese military. So you're seeing the U.S. step back. And what's concerning the agenda is also with the withdrawal of the U.S. role, you're seeing a degradation of the broader international human rights standards, right? So with U.S. and Israeli conduct in this war, for example, where schools and hospitals were hit in ways that we saw in Gaza, and then with countries saying, look, the U.S. has openly violated international law so blatantly.

20:53Spain, for instance, a NATO member said this really openly. The French felt this. The Brits felt this. It was part of the reason why they couldn't align as President Trump wanted them to. So it gets to this question of, are we courting future instability by taking these short-termist approaches that are really costly and saying we can think about human rights tomorrow? And that gets to the Turkey question that will raise too. Even if Erdogan is seen as a little more of a reliable partner, the fact that he is clamping down at home and NATO members are choosing to turn a blind eye, while they're also claiming to be an alliance standing for liberal democratic values, what kind of danger are they courting in the long run?

21:30I want to turn to energy because this war with Iran led to Iran preventing nearly all ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Again, a major source of oil, especially for Asia, essentially cutting it off. And it proved that Iran can control the flow of oil through the strait and shut it off if it wants. What can the U.S. and its allies decide at this summit that could get traffic back to normal? Going back is really, really hard, John, right? So, for instance, in the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea, where there were also attacks by the Yemeni militia, the Houthis backed by Iran over Israel's war in Gaza, it's still just at 56 % of where it was prior to October 7, 2023.

22:11And that's three years down the line. So the Strait of Hormuz, there's a huge backlog of shipping. And a lot of this also depends on confidence among private actors and companies, insurers, shipping companies, shipping crews, many of whom were stranded, isolated in the Strait of Hormuz for over 100 days. Right. So Europeans can kind of work with the Trump administration to say this isn't just about the U.S. and Iran and whatever may happen there, which is very unpredictable. Let's build a new framework that's functional here. But that will require close partnership, which, again, there's a lot of derision from the U.S.

22:48side towards the idea that Europeans can add anything of value. Well, let's move from the Middle East to the other major war, one that's now in its fifth year. And, of course, we're talking about Ukraine. Overnight on Monday, Russia fired a barrage of dozens of missiles and hundreds of drones at major Ukrainian cities. They killed at least 11 people. At the same time, analysis from the front lines show Russia has lost more territory in Ukraine than it's gained this year. And it's continued to lose 30 ,000 to 35 ,000 soldiers every month who were killed or injured during this campaign. Meanwhile, at the G7, Ukraine's president, Zelensky, was an invited guest.

23:26What are the UK and the European Union, especially key players like France and Germany, trying to accomplish here when it comes to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine? There's some very specific asks that they would like the Trump administration to kind of ease up on. So, for instance, the Trump administration has really limited the flow of patriot batteries to the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians are saying, can we co-produce those within our own country? Because, again, an effect just of the war in Iran, everything is so interconnected. the U.S. has been running through its own stockpile of weaponry.

23:58You can't necessarily buy it from them, and it takes a long time to produce. The Ukrainians want permission to produce. The Trump administration has also occasionally put limits, rhetorical or quiet, on where the Ukrainians can hit within Russia. And that's really symbolically important for them. The number you cited of the loss of Russian soldiers, that's huge, and it speaks to how Russian society is starting to feel the effect of the war in a way they hadn't. When you saw President Putin do his annual Military Victory Day parade this year, it was much more muted than anything we've ever seen.

24:32Why? Because they felt suddenly the Ukrainians could attack them. So the Russians certainly feel on the back foot. What the Europeans are hoping is, can the Americans let the Ukrainians press their advantage? On Tuesday, President Trump said the war in Ukraine has had, quote, no impact on the United States and the U.S. has nothing to do with the war happening thousands of miles away. I mean, first, fact check that for us, Akbar. Is that true? Absolutely not. I mean, of course, the war in Ukraine has had a significant impact on how the U.S. is perceived by its allies. So even if you just think about it from the point of view of America is sort of shielded by two oceans, relies for its defense often on allies further away, closer to its adversaries, how the U.S.