The News Roundup For August 1, 2025

27:13And people have done jobs that American-born workers have tended not to want to. And so it will be long-term a drag and make the country overall a little less rich. I mean, and I think any Trump watcher knows that Trump is the kind of person who wants to have it all. But it's very difficult to deport as many people as he wants to deport and revive American manufacturing to compensate for the tariff impact on prices. So all these countries that are going to come here and build plants to make widgets, to make cars, to make all these things, who are they going to hire to do them? One of the reasons companies went overseas is that Americans don't want to work in those jobs.

27:56And I've even seen interviews with former textile manufacturing workers who are now senior citizens who said, those jobs suck. I mean, they're long, they're dangerous, they're hard. And traditionally in this country, immigrants have taken those jobs. And so without them, there was another story this week about a meatpacking plant in Omaha that has lost half its workers. Jeff, what are we seeing when it comes to polling on immigration? Is that shifting? It is, and it's fascinating. The president has long had a lot of success in polling about immigration. It was one of his primary campaign promises.

28:36It's certainly one of the reasons that a lot of his supporters voted for him last year. And largely, there are a lot of his supporters who are still very pleased with his deportation policies, with the hardline immigration tactics that he is taking. But the polling is shifting, Nyla. It is coming down along broadly with his overall approval ratings as people see some of the harsher impacts of the immigration rates. And they are absolutely less popular, and that is being reflected in a number of mainline polls. But it is not – so it is a shift. It's absolutely accurate to say that there is a shift there.

29:13But that doesn't mean that he still doesn't have a lot of support. Let's talk about how both parties are preparing for the midterms in 2026. We got some news. Wendy, Paul Dans, an architect of Project 2025, says he's going to challenge South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham in the Republican primary this fall. What does that say about if there are cracks between the MAGA movement and the GOP? Well, there are certainly cracks, as we discussed with the Jeffrey Epstein story and how MAGA world had been very excited that that story would be revealed to the world once Trump was in office. And they're desperately disappointed about that.

29:53In this case, though, Paul Dans is sort of freelancing this effort. Chris LaCivita and other Trump campaign adjacent officials really don't want him to challenge Lindsey Graham, who is an established senator who morphed into a MAGA senator from a very traditional Republican base. In 2015, I think he called Trump all sorts of names and now is loyal to Trump while he still holds some traditional or old-fashioned Republican views on foreign policy, for example, on Ukraine, on Iran and things like that. But I think what the White House's concern is with a guy like Paul Danz is if he were to win the primary and cast Lindsey Graham aside, that then that race becomes very winnable for Democrats because the guy has no name recognition in South Carolina.

30:47Meanwhile, a Wall Street Journal poll out this week shows ratings for the Democratic Party at historic lows with squares with a number of other recent polls that have delivered bad news to Democrats. And this week, we also heard from two Democrats at the top of the ticket last election. First, former President Joe Biden gave a speech last night at the National Bar Association's 100th Annual Awards Gala in Chicago. He talked about what he says is the real agenda of Trump. To erase history rather than make it. To erase fairness, equality, to erase justice itself. And that's not hyperbole. That's a fact.

31:25And former Vice President Kamala Harris said she would not be running for governor of California. Jeff, as we talk about this polling for Democrats at historic lows, how much does the shadow over the former president and vice president still hang over Democrats today? Well, it's still early in the post-Biden era. The election was just last November, and there's not a successor yet in terms of somebody with a high profile being at the top of the Democratic Party leadership. So I think the question is right. I think the shadow still does hang over. That said, and maybe to the broader point, obviously Joe Biden is not the future of the Democratic Party.

32:09And whether or not former Vice President Harris is part of that future is also up in the air. Her decision not to run for governor means that she may be thinking of putting herself in the mix for 2028. But let me tell you, she will face a very competitive primary this time around if she does decide to run again. But those people, the Democratic leaders who are sort of beginning to explore jumping into the presidential race, aren't, as I said before, the leaders yet of the party. And that has left the broad party in sort of the doldrums and lacking direction. And that's shown in the polls. And that is helping the Republicans.

32:52And it's helping Trump. One of the things, as you're talking about different presidential hopefuls for Democrats, one of those people, Jeff, is Maryland Governor Wes Moore. This week, he talked to former DNC Chair Jamie Harrison on the podcast At Our Table. And he accused his party of neglecting wide swaths of the country and key voters in 2024. What does happen in particular black men is we become a focus on election years. And when it's not an election year, you're not talking to us. And it's like the only time we become a focus is when we become a focus group. Right. The only time that we become a target is when we become a targeted demographic for voting.

33:38Arthur, as we're talking about, as Jeff's talking about new voices, new leadership, what are we hearing? Are we hearing what Westmore is saying, criticism of the Democrats saying we have to do things differently? I think most top Democrats are saying similar things, criticizing the party. There's almost something a little rote about it because obviously they lost terribly. And what are they going to say? More, Westmore also said he didn't know exactly what Kamala Harris should have done differently, except perhaps campaigned less extensively in the battleground states that were key to winning, though she did make a notable stop in Texas, a state that was not winnable.

34:20I think this is just what Democratic politicians have to say. I don't know that it will ring true to voters or what should happen differently. Well, to me, what was so interesting was in Joe Biden's speech, he was again saying, sticking to the theme that cost the Democrats the election in 2024, I believe, which is Trump is awful. The world is pretty settled on that question now. If you believe Trump is awful, you believe Trump is awful. If you don't, you don't. But voters need more than that because they already know it and they need more than a Jeffrey Epstein story, as awful as that story is.

34:56What they need is answers on the economy. What they need is something to vote for. I know that most people in America are not as fixated on some of these stories as we are here in Washington. But, you know, their inability to stop with the MAGA is awful theme and go on to a positive theme is worrisome if they want to regain power. Jeff, just to bring this back to, as Wendy's saying, the issues that people say they care the most about, like the economy, their pocketbook, their livelihoods. What are we seeing with the Trump administration, with President Trump and polling and support on the economy?

35:39Well, there's fragility, I think, in the economy that people are worried about. And as I said before, when we talked about polling, his overall approval ratings are coming down. And that's related to a number of things, including the immigration piece that we discussed earlier, but also the economy. So it's on the radar of American voters. But we're a year away, more than a year away from the midterms. A lot can happen between now and then. I think economy and inflation were likely the single biggest factor beating Democrats in 24. And it's not gotten better. Trump said he would magically fix it on his first day, immediately abandoned that project.

36:24It's going to get worse. We're seeing inflation going up and jobs going down. That's going to be bad for the president. It's going to be the same problem that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris had. And then Democrats need to say what they are going to do about that, in my opinion. Yeah. Let me ask you all a quick follow-up affecting both parties. Emil Bove was confirmed this week to his Lifetime Appeals Court post. despite ire from Democrats and some Republicans over ethical breaches. Arthur, quick take on this, on the impact of this? Well, he was accused by multiple whistleblowers of having urged Justice Department attorneys to defy court orders.

37:01And you have to wonder if when Democrats, if and when Democrats retake power, they could try to impeach him. So that's a long ways off. But that was a big one. That was one of the major controversial confirmations from the U.S. Senate. One other headline I want to get to before we get to your reporter's notebook. For more than 15 years, the Environmental Protection Agency has considered greenhouse gases a form of air pollution and regulated them as such. Trump's EPA is now set to revoke that standard, likely resulting in massive repercussions for the auto market and the environment. The EPA announced its plan on Tuesday.

37:38Wendy, what do we expect in terms of legal challenges to this? Lots of them. It's funny because the auto industry had sort of settled into the reality of, you know, trying to reduce emissions, and that worked in the marketplace. You know, people wanted cars that emitted less, you know, pollution into the environment. But I think there will almost certainly be lots and lots of challenges to this and, you know, possible overturning because, again, it is not going through Congress. that is not going through the normal channels, and that will be the basis for a legal challenge. I just wanted to add this comment we got from Janelle in Ohio.

38:20You stated, Janelle says, you said that Democratic approval has significantly dropped, but from a boots-on-the-ground perspective in Ohio, we are simply seeing that people are calling themselves independents and voting their conscience rather than towing the party line. It doesn't necessarily mean they aren't supporting Democrats. It means they are tired of party-line politics. Even though Democrats are doing badly in polls, this is a great point because party affiliation actually has shifted toward Democrats for exactly the reason this listener said. There are more independents identifying themselves as leaning Democratic.

38:54Let's talk about what other stories you're working on or watching for this next week or what we missed and all the conversation that we've already had. Wendy, let me start with you. It's going to be tariffs for us. It's going to be to see how these deals shake out, whether what we saw last night lasts through the weekend. Jeff, I know the president is back from traveling. I'm not sure what's on the president's schedule for the next week or two. What are you going to be watching for? Well, I can tell you that he's traveling to Bedminster, New Jersey, this weekend for the weekend, and I will be there too.

39:26That's the typical weekend travel, correct? That's typical weekend travel for the president and for White House reporters. So he'll be hanging out there this weekend and next week. No travel yet that I'm aware of, but it's August. So, you know, a couple of things may be added. And he's got a state visit to the U.K. coming up in September. I've got my eyes on that forthcoming Republican subpoena for the Epstein files. I'm sorry, Wendy. And what's the timing for that? Don't know. I mean, you're supposed to do it right away. They said they would do it very soon. And are they, who's it? Remind us this Congress.

40:04House Oversight Committee Chair. Are they in session? James Comer. You don't have to be in session to send a subpoena. It's up to this chairman who led the impeachment inquiry against Joe Biden. And it falls to him to send this subpoena that one of his subcommittees approved. All right. Well, my thanks to our panel this week. That's Arthur Delaney, senior reporter at HuffPost, Jeff Mason, White House correspondent for Reuters, and Wendy Benjaminson, Washington's senior editor for Bloomberg News. We're going to head to a quick break. We'll be back with more of the News Roundup in just a moment.

40:35Stay with us.

40:41All right, let's turn now to the global edition of the News Roundup. Here with me in studio, Nancy Youssef, staff writer at The Atlantic, covering national security in the Defense Department. Hi, Nancy. Hi there. Welcome back also to Robbie Grammer, national security reporter at The Wall Street Journal. Thank you for being with us. Pleasure to be here. And David Rennie is joining us from London. He's a geopolitics editor and columnist at The Economist, where he writes their column, The Telegram. David, always a pleasure. Hello. We are going to talk tariffs in a little bit, but let's start the hour in Gaza, where the World Food Program says one in three people there have not eaten for days.

41:16This woman standing in line at a community kitchen says her daughter is one of them. When my two-year-old daughter saw an empty pot, she started to slap her face. There's no food. I gave her a sip of water to make her stop. There's mounting global alarm at the conditions in Gaza, where Gaza's health ministry says more than 154 people have died from hunger. This grim milestone of starvation comes as the overall death toll surpassed 60 ,000 people in Gaza this week. More than 18 ,500 of those children. This week, the Washington Post published those children's names and ages. Despite humanitarian pauses that started on Sunday, the World Food Program says it's not getting the permissions it needs from Israel to deliver enough aid.

42:03Israel has blockaded the territory that's home to more than 2 million people. Nancy, can you just sum up? We've heard, we've seen, a lot of people have seen the images. What is the state of the humanitarian situation in Gaza? What does it look like right now, especially when it comes to this aid being delivered? So as you mentioned, one in three haven't eaten for multiple days. According to the health ministry in Gaza, at least 147 have died from starvation, including 88 children. And the trucks aren't getting in at the clip that they need to actually have an impact. And I should note that this isn't just a food shortage that we're talking about, but fuel to cook the food, water, medical supplies in an area where 90 % of the buildings have been damaged.

42:49And so the situation is such that Gazans are essentially having to choose between starving or going to one of the four distribution sites of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation to get food, compared to 400, by the way, before when it was under the UN, to try to get food there if there's still food there. There is some food in the markets, but if you're able to reach it, the prices are astronomical. So if you wanted to buy a kilo of tomatoes, it would cost you$30 compared to 59 cents before the war. A bag of flour is now$300 plus compared to$10. And if you have a bag of flour, you need to cook that.

43:31That's right. And so these are sort of the dire choices that are facing Gazans. And so it's a situation where there hasn't been a uniform effort to sort of get the amount of supplies that are needed. There have been ideas put forth, for example, like airdrops. The problem is airdrops can't replicate what a ground delivery can do. One truck might require more than 100 flights to equate the same number. And of course, there are risks that come with using airdrops, including killing those on the ground who are in the wrong place when they land. And so it is a dire situation by the estimates of several aid organizations.

44:18I think this week you heard a debate about whether it was starvation. You heard the prime minister say that it wasn't. But I don't think anyone disagrees that there's an acute starvation happening across the Strip. Stephen, how have the rival aid efforts of the U.S. and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation versus the U.N. international aid groups, dozens of governments from around the world sparked a war of words here on who's to blame for this mass starvation? So the ultimate tragedy of this is this is not a famine caused by a drought or caused by weather. It's an argument about politics.

44:59So the Israeli government would say that the old method distributed by the UN, and above all, the specialist UN agency, UNRAR, that has worked in the Palestinian territories for decades, that it's essentially a creature of Hamas, or at least is careless about Hamas's ability to steal and divert this food. And so Israel's argument is that, harsh though it is, you have to stop food from entering through those UN channels because it will be diverted by Hamas and will strengthen the terrorists. That's the Israeli government argument. The UN's argument is, A, that's false. B, that the way that the Israelis are going about it with, as Nancy says, three active out of four aid distribution centers.

45:38Essentially, these are kind of collection points guarded by American mercenaries and Israeli troops. and the problem is, as you'd imagine, in a place of 2.1 million desperate people, they get stampeded every time there's food to distribute. And so you have IDF troops saying that they are firing for their own safety, but nonetheless, people get killed. They get trampled, they get shot. And then there's a quantity problem that, as Nancy says, these aid distribution centres are delivering a tiny handful of the amount of food that a territory of 2 million people needs. The airdrops even less. UNRWA alone says it has 6 ,000 trucks full of aid waiting to go in.

46:13But this is an argument, as I say, about politics, that Israel says those thousands of trucks cannot be allowed to enter because that food will end up in the hands of Hamas. I think what's really revealing is some of our reporting is that Israeli military chiefs are privately warning their government that more food needs to go in, that a desperate Palestinian population is actually no help in terms of security, and that the territory is on the brink of famine. So this is a man-made political argument that it is better to keep people on the brink of famine or starvation, as the UN is very clearly signaling, because Israel's view is that otherwise it's bad for Israel's security.

46:49David, can I just ask, we just got this question from Mark that says the Gaza Health Ministry is part of Hamas. Why trust their numbers? So you don't necessarily have to trust their numbers. You can trust, to the extent that listeners do trust the UN, you have the UN's food program, the World Food Program, as you said in your intro, Naila, that one in three people in Gaza are going days without eating. And there's also journalists occasionally getting into Gaza. Now, they go in on escorted tours, escorted by the Israeli military, The Economist has sent reporters in. Gaza is a wasteland of rubble, and people are starving.

47:22And I think President Trump was quite interesting when he said that he had seen images on TV that, to him, looked like starving. You can't fake that, he said. You can see those kids are hungry. They need to be fed. I think even the Israeli government does not deny that people are going very hungry. Their argument is just that to be hard-hearted about it for security reasons, the food can't go in. To your point, David, also the IPC is a global initiative monitoring hunger with the backing of governments, the UN and non-governmental organizations. This week, they set an alert, quote, the worst case scenario of famine is currently playing out in the Gaza Strip.

47:59And to your point about Benjamin Netanyahu, He has said on Sunday, he said, quote, there's no starvation in Gaza. But to your point about what the President Trump said in a visit to Scotland, he contradicted Netanyahu. Here are the Israeli prime minister and the president's comments. There is no policy of starvation in Gaza and there is no starvation in Gaza. Some of those kids are that's real starvation stuff. I see it. And you can't fake that. Nancy, two very significant differences here. Is this a break between the two leaders? I think it's certainly a break on this issue, and that's what we saw this week.

48:42You have doctors describing that they're too weak to serve patients in Gaza because they're looking for food. You have one stat after another coming out, one image coming out after another. And the president essentially signaled that he believes the images that he sees and the information that he's getting, so much so that he has sent his special envoy and ambassador into Gaza. They just came out earlier. Steve Wyckoff, Mike Huckabee. That's right, to assess the situation from themselves. So that certainly suggests that the administration does not take Netanyahu at his word and his description.

49:15Now, does that mean that this signals a major break in terms of other issues related to this war? I think it's too soon to say. But I think it's fair to conclude that when it comes to the pace at which food is entering Gaza, that the Trump administration believes it is not at a sufficient pace. Robbie, we've been sort of alluding to these different airdrops of food aid. Humanitarian workers say these are a smokescreen. How so? Well, yeah, I mean, there's two factors here with the aid drops. The first is that it is a drop in the bucket. But plane loads of food can just not be delivered at the scale that's needed in Gaza right now compared to trucks.

49:58If you do some back-of-the-envelope math, you know, fully kitted out massive cargo planes, there need to be over 200 flights a day over Gaza in order to meet the bare minimum needs compared to just 120 trucks a day, depending on the statistics you follow from aid organizations about this. And that's just not happening. The other matter here is that even if tomorrow magically the tap is turned back on, all aid flows into Gaza, some people have already reached the tipping point. When you talk to doctors, physicians who are aid workers, when people, especially young kids, vulnerable, elderly, start starving, after a certain point, if you bring them a bunch of food, their body has already started shutting down.

50:42So if the food aid does turn back on, there will already, there will still be deaths from famine in the coming weeks and months just because of how the aid has been cut off at this point. For 21 months, journalists in Gaza have been documenting stories of the war. They too are becoming part of the story of starvation. This is AFP video journalist Yusuf Hosuna.

51:06Obtaining food in Gaza is extremely difficult. Even when it is available, prices have multiplied 100-fold. For example, a kilo of lentils used to cost three shekels. Today, it costs 80 shekels. Rice used to cost seven shekels. Today, it costs 140 shekels. The Committee to Protect Journalists says the war in Gaza is the deadliest conflict for journalists it has documented in its 44-year history. 186 journalists in Gaza have been killed since the war began in October 2023. Nancy, you mentioned earlier White House Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Whitcoff did travel to Israel this week to discuss the humanitarian crisis.

51:46On Friday, he visited a GHF food distribution site along with U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee. Robbie, what happened here? And can you just let us know where the negotiations between Israel and Hamas lie now? Yeah, well, negotiations are at a standstill. First, on this visit that Wyckoff and Huckabee had, they praised the GHF, even as others have criticized it. Huckabee said GHF has distributed 100 million meals to Gazans in two months. But if you look at the math for over 2 million citizens, that's less than one meal per day. So it's clear, even with some of what you're hearing from the American side, that just not enough food is getting in.

52:30On the negotiations, they're basically at a standstill. Last week, negotiators were withdrawn from both sides in Qatar. Witkoff visited Israel here before Gaza to talk about the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, but also try to shake loose, you know, try to break this impasse that's going on in the negotiations between Hamas and Israel. We haven't seen that yet. The main sticking point is still over 50 hostages that are still in Hamas' hands, of which 20 are still believed to be alive. But even the White House is conceding that it's going to be very difficult for Hamas to—or it's going to be very difficult to convince Hamas to give up those hostages because they really are the last point of leverage that they have.

53:14We're talking about the events of this week, the humanitarian situation in Gaza, the famine, and world leaders' reactions to it, including the idea that some countries are floating recognizing Palestine. This week, the UK and Canada followed France in announcing they will recognize a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly in New York in September. Germany has also signaled they may begin the same process. Nancy, a Palestinian state does have a large degree of international recognition. Diplomatic missions abroad, teams that compete in sporting competitions, including the Olympics. Just so our audience knows, the state of Palestine is currently recognized by 147 of the UN's 193 member states.

53:55So what does this news this week about the UK and Canada following France, does that change the conversation around the two-state solution? So on one hand, it's fair to say the two-state solution has never seemed farther from possibility right now. who talked about a horrible situation in Gaza. There have been expanding West Bank settlements. There's no political will that we can see in Israel for any kind of two-state solution. And yet there is some impact that these announcements have. You now have four of the five permanent members of the UN saying that there should be a Palestinian state and proposing a two-state solution.

54:33It doesn't necessarily change circumstances on the ground. We haven't seen, for example, proposals of sanctions or other consequences to go behind these statements. But I think it speaks, one, to the political pressure within Europe and their populations and a way for Europe to say that there's an urgency and a desperation to change the situation in Gaza right now. And I think this is their way of signaling that and saying that this is not a today or tomorrow solution, but in the long term, that we need to have a statement of intent that going forward, that the enduring long term solution is a two state one.

55:14David, what have we seen from the Israeli government reacting to these moves to recognize a Palestinian state? We've seen a very aggressive response and frankly scorn. And let's be clear, the reason that France and certainly the UK are saying, France saying it will recognise the Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly in September, the British government saying that it will with certain conditions. They're trying to use it for leverage. These are all conditions attached to Israel saying that they won't do this if they won't recognise Palestinian statehood in September, if Israel stops the war and commits itself clearly to a two-state solution and pledges that it will not take territory and annex the West Bank, for example.

55:58And so essentially this is a diplomatic play. It's not that Britain or France thinks that somehow it's going to be magical as a diplomatic solution to recognise Palestine. This is an attempt to put leverage on Benjamin Netanyahu to make him realise that his government will be an international pariah if it doesn't stop the war because they're in despair about America putting that kind of leverage on. For the moment, Israel is responding with scorn. You had Bibi Netanyahu saying that this was a reward for Hamas's monstrous terrorism, accusing Britain of sort of appeasing terrorists. The leader of the Knesset, the speaker, Amir al-Khanna, saying that, real scorned, saying that, well, maybe London or Paris should be the capital of this new Palestinian state, given that Europe looks more and more like the Middle East, which appears to be a kind of nasty reference to immigration into Europe.

56:45So a sense of kind of the Israeli government punching back because ultimately this is all about leverage. that only the Americans really have. And I think our fear, the economists had a leader this week saying, we absolutely support the idea of keeping the hope of a two-state solution alive. The danger is, if you do this deal now, you try and have leverage over Israel, but you lose your leverage over the Palestinians. If you ever did get to future negotiations, there is also leverage needed over, say, make sure that Hamas isn't part of the government of whatever future state Palestinian gets. And if you've given them the enormous concession of recognition, now and it doesn't work, then you've kind of used one of your best diplomatic tools too early.

57:28And so it's a kind of tragedy. I think what you're really seeing is the West, except America, desperately trying to find ways to put pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu. Yeah, so we talk about pressure on Netanyahu. In Washington this week, more than 40 Senate Democrats signed a letter to the Trump administration imploring them to step up the U.S. role in addressing suffering and starvation. They urged the resumption of ceasefire talks, criticized the Israeli-U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. We saw language this week from Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, who became the first Republican in Congress to describe the situation in Gaza as a, quote, genocide.

58:06Robbie, what did we see this week with domestic politics and particularly the fact that Marjorie Taylor Greene called what's happening in genocide. Yeah. You know, I've been on Capitol Hill this week talking to Republican lawmakers and Republican staffers about this, asking, is this the beginning of a sea change? Are you worried about, you know, your party's future stance on Israel? The consensus there was they're not. The center of gravity in the party is still very staunchly pro-Israel. But they can't ignore the fact that Marjorie Taylor Greene, some other outside conservative influencers who wield enormous influence in the party base are starting to openly question the U.S.-Israeli relationship in a way that's unprecedented in the GOP, in a way we totally haven't seen before.

58:52And so on the right, you're seeing shifts that may not come for years until some of these people are out of office, but a new generation of Republican leaders could start to question this. On the left, there was also this week a symbolic vote in the Senate to block arms sales to Israel. That vote failed by a wide margin. The vote was 70 to 27. It was led by Bernie Sanders. But notably, you've seen some centrist, hawkish, staunchly pro-Israel Democrats vote for this. They knew it was a symbolic vote. They knew it wasn't going to pass. But senators who wield enormous influence in the party on foreign policy, like Jean Shaheen, who's the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee vote in support of Sanders' resolution here when they hadn't in votes in the past.

59:42And it just shows how even among the Democrats who will theoretically one day come back in power, they're really losing patience. They're really worried about the turn Israel is taking with Gaza right now. And that's going to cause long-term lasting damage to Israel's relationship with the United States, which is its most important strategic relationship in the world. We do have a few listener questions I wanted to get to. David, can I put this one to you? Laura asks, does it violate the Geneva Convention to blockade or deny food, to deny access to food and water for a military purpose? So you are not allowed to deliberately target civilians in war.

1:00:15That is certainly part of the laws of war. And also collective punishment is clearly ruled out by the rules of war. And so the idea that you're collectively punishing people for being Palestinian. And I certainly think that there are real pressures on Western governments as their own members of parliament, their own publics argue that what is going on here is even if you leave to one side the very contentious argument about genocide, I think clearly there is the use of hunger as a tool, the use of collective punishment. And if we saw further herding of Palestinians into incredibly small controlled spaces, the so-called humanitarian zones, that is also clearly a war crime.

1:00:54And so the problem is politics. The problem is that the only power that actually has real influence over the Israeli government right now is the American government. And so European leaders are tying themselves in knots because their own parliaments, their own parties, their own publics are so distraught about what is happening in the Middle East. But law is not going to be, unfortunately, how this ends. It's important. We shouldn't lose sight of it. But this is ultimately about politics. Nancy, let me pose this question to you. David, Robbie, I would love to have you weigh in as well. have the events of this week that we've been talking about, the humanitarian situation in Gaza, world leaders' reactions to it, including this idea that some countries are floating recognizing a Palestinian state.

1:01:36Is it possible to say that there's been maybe a tipping point this week? Yes, I think so. I think we've seen a number of events, not only here in the United States, but across the world, as you know, suggesting that there is exhaustion with this war. You know, this is a word that the Israeli military has said cannot be won anymore, that the military objectives have been achieved. And I think it's not just the images, but as Robbie points out, that even if everything were to start today, the consequences of the last few weeks make it such that there are things that cannot be undone, that the suffering will continue.

1:02:13And I think without sort of clear military objectives for what this is supposed to achieve, I think the images that Trump would say that there's something happening here that we can't fake it. You did say that. That was a – there was a pattern point. There are points when I think there's a convergence of sort of thoughts. Now, having said that, how long is it a tipping point? Does it lead to any substantial change? I don't know. But I think we are, as we've been discussing throughout the show so far, seeing a shift in sort of how the international community is viewing its war and a generational shift, particularly amongst the young.

1:02:55We heard that this week from Republicans. We heard it from Steve Bannon talking about that he's starting to see in his own base a change in views. Yeah, I mean, I'm skeptical that we've reached a tipping point that will lead to any sort of meaningful sea change here. What I've heard from administration officials, from Republican lawmakers, is the same thing that I heard months ago and in the aftermath of October 7th attacks is this entire humanitarian crisis, this war, can all be stopped in an instant if Hamas lays down its arms. You're not seeing a lot of pressure directly on the Israeli government, even if Trump is talking about starvation, even if Trump is talking about America trying to open up new aid distribution centers.

1:03:41And Israel so far has shown time again that it is impervious to international pressure. You hear Israeli officials say, this is existential. If we lose the world popularity contest, so be it, but we need to do this. And so what I have seen is a bellwether of a tipping point that could come in American politics that could affect and reshape the U.S. relationship with Israel in decades to come. But here, given the people in power in both Congress and the White House, I don't see it as a tipping point. But there are a lot of people who are much smarter than me who might disagree. We did just get this question from Lonnie Robbie.

1:04:18Just on a related note, I wonder if you can – if you want to enter this and maybe, David, I'll have you weigh in. Lonnie says, why doesn't Hamas agree to return the hostages and stop fighting so food can be brought in? I mean, that's the question that you hear from every administration official, from every Israeli. I mean, it's important to note that every country that's escalating pressure on Israel right now is equally— Also saying that to Hamas. Is also saying that to Hamas. From Hamas's point of view, this is really the last point of leverage that they have on the Israeli government. When they release these hostages, there's nothing left for them to hide behind.

1:04:53So for Hamas, which is besieged right now, facing everything that they're putting Gazan civilians through with this war, this is their last line of defense. And that is why this last measure that Wyckoff and others are trying to negotiate is just so difficult and so intractable. David, final thoughts on this? I think the final piece of the jigsaw puzzle is if you talk to Israeli political analysts, they will tell you that one of the reasons this war is carrying on is not only because Hamas is not defeated as Netanyahu says it can be, as others think it can never be because you can't just defeat an idea.

1:05:28It's carrying on because Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition has some members' parties, extreme right-wing parties in it, that will not forgive him if he has a ceasefire and puts the fight against Hamas lower down his list of priorities than getting the hostages home. That's the reason that this war is still going on. And that's Israeli domestic politics. To preserve his coalition from falling apart, he can't stop this war. That's what you would hear from Israeli political analysts. That's why I keep saying, unfortunately, this isn't about a winnable war or an unwinnable war. This is about politics.

1:06:03Let's turn now to the war in Ukraine. On Monday, President Trump said he's slashing his 50-day deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to reach a peace deal. I'm going to make a new deadline of about 10 or 12 days from today. There's no reason in waiting. There's no reason in waiting. It's 50 days. I want to be generous, but we just don't see any progress being made. We should note that since that announcement, Russian drone and missile strikes on Kyiv on Thursday killed at least 31 people, injured more than 150. Nancy, how realistic is Trump's speeding up of this timeline here? Well, CNN put together all the deadlines that have been put forth since April.

1:06:47April, I'll count them, one, two, three, four, five, six deadlines that have been put forth usually with two weeks. And the truth is that Russia has blown through all of them. And so the president keeps moving the deadline and the consequences end up being the same. I think with every deadline the president sets, he is signaling his impatience. And with the Russians continuing to operate the way they are, they are saying they have the time. And I think the president is seeking leverage in these negotiations. And I think the Russians are signaling that they believe that they can keep fighting successfully in this war.

1:07:23And so whether this new deadline will change the course, I guess it's possible. But if history is any guide, that this has just become a demonstration of how differently they see the clock, essentially. Let's talk about another deadline, and that's about trade and tariffs. On Thursday night, President Trump issued an executive order with updated tariff rates for more than 65 countries, with a new deadline of those taking effect next Thursday instead of August 1st, which had been the original. David, what has been the reaction in Europe, outside the United States, to the president's moves yesterday evening?

1:08:04Well, it's been a very different story in different bits of Europe. And I think we should give a brief shout out to Switzerland, which has been hit with a 39 % tariff. Yeah. And a lot of that is just... So, you know, we know, we've discussed on previous shows that the formula that the Trump administration uses is this kind of just very simple formula where they divide the trade deficit by trade flows and you get this number. Basically, a lot of people have been buying gold because the price of gold has been going up. A lot of gold is kept in Switzerland. It's shipped to America. That looks like, on their formula, Switzerland's been going gangbusters, exporting stuff to America.

1:08:38It's just been gold bars. You know, this is not trade. And so their formula has just gone completely berserk. Britain is on 10 % because we're besties, right, for whatever that means. Europe has got a 15 % deal, and that has been getting a mix of relief from some players, like the big German car makers, because they'd been facing something closer to 28 % on German cars coming across to buyers in the US. But France, pretty unhappy. France always wants Europe to get tough, is always up for a sort of get tough stance. We saw fascinating footage of President Emmanuel Macron with his own French cabinet saying to the ministers that this is not the end of this.

1:09:17This is only a kind of first step and that we were not, what does he say? We were not assez crâns. We were not feared enough. Europe was not feared enough. which sounds good. It sounds even better in French. But the truth is that Europe doesn't have the cards. It needs the trade with America. And Donald Trump is playing pretty tough with everyone. Also, let's talk about, David, the U.S. and EU trade deal that the U.S. did enter, both did on Sunday. That agreement sets the max tariff on imports of goods to 15 percent. And as you noted, that was not changed in the executive orders from Thursday evening.

1:09:51But that is the highest level in decades. American goods exported to the EU will face no tariffs. Previously, these exports faced a tariff of about 1 percent. That's according to Goldman Sachs. Here's what EU Trade Chief Mara Sekovic said about the deal on Monday. A trade war may seem appealing to some, but it comes with serious consequences. With at least a 30 % tariff, our transatlantic trade would effectively come to a halt. So, David, given the deal that already happened this week with the EU, when we think about the fact European countries ship more than$300 billion in goods to the U.S. each year, that's more than a fifth of all U.S.

1:10:36imports. Economically, how are economists seeing this move by the EU? I think there's a lot of disappointment that Europe wasn't tougher. You know, Europe didn't quite fold like a cheap suit, but it was pretty close to it. And, you know, I know that this will come as an absolute surprise to all listeners, but the deal is not actually quite what it looks on first sight. So we had, for example, President Trump boasting about the fact that Europe is going to buy$750 billion of American energy. So that's natural gas, oil and nuclear fuels over three years. Here's the problem. That comes out of$250 billion worth of buying American energy a year.

1:11:15Europe only imports from the whole world about$100 billion so far. So unless, you know, we in Europe basically kind of sit around, you know, fire pits for the entire winter burning American LNG, we're not going to get to that number. And America doesn't even have that much LNG to ship Europe. So this is a slightly fantastical deal. And there's lots of details yet to be done. The real interesting political point is that we were all talking a few months ago about how Trump was going to be constrained by the fact that Americans were going to be paying more for stuff. And as you say, Nyla, a lot of stuff comes from Europe.

1:11:47And, you know, was that French cheese, that French wine, that German car going to cost so much more that people got angry? For the moment, the Trump administration is very confident that inflation hasn't really kicked in, that companies in particular are eating the pain. They're not taking as much profit, but that can't carry on forever. And that's going to be the interesting story over the next few months is, Are we seeing a bit of a kind of phony war and the pressure starts to build? And the pain felt by Americans gets to the point where some of these deals have to be revisited. But for now, Europe is not looking like the winner out of this very one-sided deal with Donald Trump.

1:12:25Just one small point. When you tried to read the details of this deal in the European press versus the American press, it was different language in some cases. So referencing David mentioning the$700 billion deal, the U.S. says that Europe will purchase it. Europe says it intends to purchase it. Those are different things. Those are two very different things. So when you look at the language, it was—and the Europeans said it was a framework. The U.S. talked about it more definitively. So to the points that David made, adding to the confusion is sort of the certainty of the language with which each side is looking at it.

1:12:56And then we got this question from Sue in Illinois. Robbie, I'm hoping you can take this one. What guarantees do countries have that Trump will honor any of these trade deals, given that he seems to change his mind frequently? Well, you know, you are always one true social post away from a massive new tariff deal that could roil your country's entire market. So the point is, it's a great question, and there aren't many. I mean, to Nancy's point, this EU-US trade deal that you – Commissioner President Ursula von der Leyen signed with Trump, there were smiles, there were handshakes, there was mission accomplished.

1:13:33It turns out they spiked the ball at the 20-yard line. There's still a lot to be sorted out in this deal that they claimed was a done deal. As you look at the EU's readout versus the American readout of what this deal entails, there are still so many discrepancies, and that spooked the market. It spooked a lot of investors and it spooked a lot of manufacturers. And I think that's just going to be a common theme we're going to see over the course of the next few months as these deals come in and people realize there are still discrepancies. The American side hasn't ironed everything out. And Trump, again, could turn on a dime and decide to announce, you know, double the tariffs or half the tariffs on your country in the coming days or weeks, depending on how geopolitics change and views in the White House shift on a country.

1:14:16David, we did see in the executive orders of Thursday evening that Japan and South Korea, who have agreed to deals, had the same rates set. My question to you is if that signals some more stability to countries like India that have yet to make an agreement. No, because when the poor South Korean trade minister came back from his bruising visit to Washington, he had to admit that the deal that they have hasn't actually been written down. They have nothing in writing. All they have is a truth social post from President Trump, which obviously is now, you know, the equivalent of Holy Rit, Ten Commandments Carved on Stone.

1:14:50But nonetheless, normally you come back with something in writing. They don't have anything in writing. So that's pretty unhappy. And India is in a world of pain because they have been told that they have a, I'm quoting a truth social post here because that's what we do nowadays, right? That they have a dead economy, says Donald Trump, like Russia does, and that they are a very annoying economy for having lots of protectionist barriers. That's true. They have a lot of protectionist barriers. So they're currently being threatened with, I think we're up to 50 % tariffs on India right now. But he's also saying that he might punish them still further for buying Russian oil, which last week was not a thing that made Donald Trump angry.

1:15:25But this week is a thing that makes Donald Trump angry. So go figure. Let's move to China, starting with the U.S. relationship to China and how it's changing. On Thursday, the White House, as we've been talking about, revealed a new tariff plan that included a 40 % tariff on Chinese products. This time aimed at indirect shipments, that's products manufactured in Chinese factories set up in other countries. And as the future of trade with China hangs in the balance, Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby has gone all in on China. He says the only way to stop China's rise as an economic and military superpower is to pour all resources into securing the Western Pacific.

1:16:03Nancy, you've been reporting on Colby for The Atlantic. What do we need to know about his views and how it compares to the rest of the Trump administration? So I'm always fascinated by people in the Pentagon or in government in general who you might not have heard of but have a real sway on policy. And Bridge Colby, I think, is one of those people. He's the number three person at the Pentagon. And, you know, there's consensus that of all the countries in the world, the one that poses the biggest threat to the United States perch as a leading superpower is China. It has the ability and the will to do so.

1:16:33The split is how to address it. And Bridge Colby puts forth that the way that the United States needs to do that is to focus all its energy and resources towards it, even if it comes at the expense of places like Ukraine and the U.S. posture in the Middle East. And so that's relevant because we saw this play out earlier this summer when the U.S. suspended a shipment of weapons to Ukraine. He was part of that decision-making process. And it really raises the question when we're proposing that the only way the United States can remain super powerful, super influential is to not do superpower kinds of things like try to lead on the key national security or world security issues of our time.

1:17:12And so he is of the belief that if the United States puts its resources fully towards threats from China, that that will deter China from going after its interest in the region. David, how are you thinking about the idea that the U.S. needs to aim all of its foreign policy focused towards China, especially as we're hearing what Nancy's talking about? Well, what I can tell you is that an awful lot, I was just in Singapore until yesterday, an awful lot of Asian governments are not 100 % convinced by this pitch. You know, the happy pitch is, yes, America is doing all these scary things in Europe, like leaving NATO potentially in the lurch when it comes to Ukraine, like imposing a bad peace deal on Ukraine.

1:17:50but the pitch from American diplomats and people like Bridge Colby is this is only so we can focus on China. The problem is they then see the extremely aggressive Trump behavior towards Japan, towards South Korea. They also know that Bridge Colby sounds quite tough now but he used to sound a lot more tough and indeed to get confirmed to the position that Nancy talked about, number three at the Pentagon, he had to soften his line on Taiwan and say that it's actually not an existential national security interest for the United States, for Taiwan to stay out of China's clutches. It's just very important.

1:18:22And so the direction of travel, even for a hawk like Bridge Colby, is towards basically washing your hands of allies and treating allies in Asia almost as badly as you treat allies in Europe. Let's not forget Bridge Colby is the same guy who's trying to question a deal to sell nuclear submarines to Australia, which used to be one of the big plays to containing China. So in Asia, people hear this kind of hawkishness, but they're not as convinced as they might have been even a few months ago. Well, we have reached the end of the hour, and I want to leave time for stories that we haven't talked about.

1:18:57What's in your notebook? What stories you're looking forward to next week? What we missed? Robbie? David already beat me to the punch here, but the U.S.-India relationship. Trump came into office giving India a bear hug. Everything was was going Modi's way. And all of a sudden in the past few months, the U.S.-India relationship has really soured. Mike Waltz, his former national security advisor, called it the most important bilateral relationship for the 21st century. But now Trump is castigating India on true social. They're mired in this deep trade war. Trump is pressuring India over its historic ties to Russia.

1:19:34It looks like it's blowing up, and it just goes to show how unpredictable global diplomacy could be in the second Trump administration. Nancy? Next week's a collision of deadlines set by the Trump administration. Putin needs to do something differently in Ukraine, according to the president, by next week. Tariffs that were supposed to go into place on August 1st now will go into place August 7th. And I'm really curious about how that plays out next week and how they're able to sort of negotiate this, not only when it comes to the war in Europe, but to economic policy as well. David? President Bukele, the Trump administration's favorite Central American leader who locks up American detainees for them in his supermax prisons, has just changed the Constitution so that he can be president for life.

1:20:17A big thank you to all of our panelists today for their analysis and insight on the week of international news. That's David Rennie, geopolitics editor and columnist at The Economist. His column, The Telegram. Robbie Grammer, national security reporter at The Wall Street Journal. And Nancy Youssef, staff writer at The Atlantic, covering national security and the Defense Department. Mike Kidd is our sound designer and engineer. Chris Castano is our digital editor. Maya Garg is our senior managing producer. Alexandra Bote is our senior supervising producer. Amanda Williams is our special projects editor.

1:20:51Aileen Humphreys is the editor and producer of 1A On Demand. And Barb Anguiano produces our podcast. Special thanks to Matthew Simonson for additional podcasts and on-demand support this week. This program comes to you from WAMU, part of American University in Washington, distributed by NPR. I'm Nailah Boodoo. Thanks for listening. Let's talk more soon. This is One It.