The News Roundup For July 17, 2026

25:14Yeah, I think you're losing a little bit of a back channel for that group, the sort of moderate Democrats. That's it sort of, you know, Graham had, you know, a connection to Trump. They had a way to have that conversation. You know, where does this leave a lot of the very important committee work that Graham was on, that, you know, these folks that are, you know, real stalwarts in government. And where does that leave? I think it also speaks to the distrust from the American people to your earlier point. Like, of course, you don't trust this, you know, anymore. You have what happened with Joe Biden, with his health.

25:50You have people asking many questions about Trump's health, and you don't understand what's going on there. You don't know what's going on with McConnell. And then suddenly you have Lindsey Graham dying, and you're just like, what is going on with the leaders of this government? And practically speaking for policy, supposedly the president favors the Russia sanctions bill that Graham had been working on right before he died. And it's got enough sponsors that you'd think it will pass the Senate. But the president sort of seems to be wavering about it, wanting to add things to it. And without these two senators, especially without Graham, who was friends with Trump, will this policy be enacted or not?

26:27And it's definitely less likely without him, even though they say they want to do it in his honor. So let me ask also just about a few more confirmation hearings. We had Attorney General nominee Todd Blanche in Congress this week. There's been this whole back and forth about whether or not he will meet with survivors of Jeffrey Epstein. Amanda, can you just give us a sense of if he actually reportedly he did meet with some survivors late in the week after being questioned about this? Does that mean that he has the Republican support to advance the nomination? What's going on with Todd Blanch? Yeah, there were two kind of topics that many were looking at going into this hearing.

27:10One was the handling of Epstein and whether he would, you know, reach out to survivors. And the other was this$1.8 billion anti-weaponization fund that the president had asked for as part of an IRS lawsuit in which he was also asking for future immunity from tax claims for himself and his sons. I do think he addressed those issues. And again, just given the math, I think he addressed them to an extent that will likely mollify the Republicans in order to get that nomination through. Tom Tillis wanted that Epstein meeting and he got it. And I think Tillis is going to vote for him. But John Cornyn, a Republican from Texas, was asking tough questions on the slush fund.

27:50And this tax settlement Trump gave himself. And he basically said, well, I can read. He thought Blanche's answers were stupid. But the question will be, does he want to be the guy who gets in the way of the whole party's— And is that the math right now, that one vote could take the nomination? In the Judiciary Committee, if Cornyn voted no, it wouldn't go. He could stop it himself. Nobody thinks he wants to do that, though, so he'll probably swallow his pride and vote yes. And especially after Blanche reiterated that the Justice Department has no plans, no plans. He said it a couple of times to launch that anti-weaponization slash fund.

28:23Because that was really, I mean, we've been talking about the abstinence survivors, but this fund was also a huge part of the question. It was those two things, I think, that could have sunk, potentially sunk his confirmation hearing with some key Republicans. We have to take another quick break. But in just a moment, we'll talk about one more confirmation hearing. and what to watch as the U.S. escalates its war with Iran.

28:47On the latest NPR Politics podcast, we separate fact from fiction in President Trump's primetime address on election security. Two things can be true at the same time. We have ignored vulnerabilities in our voting systems for a long time, and there is no evidence the election was rigged in 2020. The truth and the politics behind President Trump's claims about voter fraud on the latest episode of the NPR Politics Podcast. This season on Planet Money Summer School, we go to China, one of the world's biggest economies. And what we learned is... Americans are crazy. Chinese are crazy. These are two countries full of these crazy hustlers.

29:23The U.S. and China are more alike than you might think. On Planet Money Summer School, a strange lesson about success, how to handle the downsides of progress. Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts. every episode of it's been a minute npr's what's happening in culture podcast starts by asking three questions who how why now if the culture is asking it we're talking about it at npr we stand for your right to be curious and indulge your cultural curiosity follow it's been a minute wherever you get your podcasts and we'll break down the zeitgeisty topics that are filling your feed This message comes from the John D.

30:02and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, recognizing extraordinarily creative individuals whose ideas, solutions, and discoveries expand people's expectations of what's possible. MacFound.org Let's get back to the roundup with this message from Nancy in Decatur, Georgia, who asks, What is the issue about voter ID? I always have to show my state-issued driver's license with my picture on it before I vote. Arthur? Voter ID actually is very popular. Most people agree with this sentiment. It becomes a problem for people who haven't got ID or would have to go to extra trouble to get the documentation.

30:42But I mean, this is exactly what all the Republicans in Congress say. This is an 80-20 issue. Why not do it? But basically— But is it already implemented? Do many states require ID? It really depends on the state. It depends on the state in terms of the ID requirement. For example, I have voted when I've lived in places where I did not have to show a voter ID. I've had to do both. Correct. Yeah. And so it really depends. And then you get into what IDs count. So, for example, there are always battles at the state level about whether student ID will be accepted because that's a population of people that kind of changes the shape of an electorate in a lot of places.

31:21And moves around. And moves around. And so, you know, it's at the state level that these battles are being fought. Two more election questions. Jerry in Illinois writes, if our elections are as corrupt as Trump claims, how is it that he doesn't question the results of the two he has won? Shelley, has anyone asked the president that? I mean, I think that he would say I'm curious about all of this all the time and for every election, including my own. But it seems to be the only ones he tries to talk about are the ones that he has not won. Eric writes, why is it not illegal to claim or promote voter fraud without any evidence, given how important voting and our voting rights is to our democracy?

32:01This is a great question. We've got free speech, but in the indictment against Trump for trying to overturn the 2020 election, his public statements alleging fraud, you know, which he knew were not true, which weren't true, were alleged to be part of his actual physical effort to overturn the election, to incite that mob that came to the Capitol and attacked Congress. So there's free speech and you can say almost whatever you want. But in that case, it was part of a criminal indictment against President Trump that he got out of by getting elected again. I wanted to talk about one more confirmation hearing, and that happened this week on the Hill.

32:45And that was for the Trump administration's nominee to lead the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Erica Schwartz. Dr. Schwartz was grilled by senators on how she would handle pressure from President Trump and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Do you commit that you will consider and make decisions on vaccine recommendations from scientific experts without political interference from outside the chain of command, including Secretary Kennedy or President Trump? Senator, your premise is interesting. I don't think the secretary or the president would do what you just said, but you have my commitment to follow the science wherever the science may lead.

33:24That was Democratic Senator Maggie Hessen of New Hampshire questioning Dr. Erica Schwartz. Amanda, what do we know about Dr. Schwartz's qualifications for this, and how did she deal with the question of handling pressure from Trump and RFK Jr.? Yeah, so Schwartz was a deputy surgeon general in the first Trump administration. And as you heard from that clip, when she was asked how she would handle pressure, which, you know, is suggested to be, frankly, political pressure, not pressure based on facts or policy, she largely deflected. She just kept, you know, as we heard just there, she said she would follow the science.

33:57She also said at one point she would never betray the science. She pledged to use what she called radical transparency to start rebuilding the public's trust in our health institutions. but she didn't have a lot to say when it came to specifics about how she would resist any pressure from Kennedy or the president. And we've seen this movie before with the CDC. I mean, people come on, they go on these confirmation hearings, they say that they care about the science, then they get inside and they face that kind of pressure that we've seen RFK and put on these folks, particularly when it comes to vaccines and infectious diseases.

34:31And some of them don't make it. They don't last. One more thing I wanted to just mention on terms of health-related news, an outbreak of a parasitic illness called cyclospora continues to grow in the U.S. The CDC reported up to 7 ,000 confirmed and unconfirmed cases in 34 states on Tuesday. The intestinal illnesses causes cramping, vomiting, and diarrhea. According to the Washington Post, federal health officials have linked the outbreak to shredded iceberg lettuce supplied to Taco Taco Bell restaurants in five states. Amanda, what are we hearing from health officials, especially in Iowa? What are we hearing from folks?

35:09Yeah, so there's— I'm sorry, Ohio. Ohio. I'm based in Ohio now. I'm based in Ohio. Yes, Ohio. So the cases are the highest in Michigan. And so now that we have a little bit—and so, you know, Ohio, we're directly south, so we're all watching this really closely. It's on my family texts and friends and, like, it's reached Hamilton County, you know, type of thing. I am continuing to eat vegetables. We know a little bit more now about where it's coming from in terms of the shredded lettuce, but health officials are still recommending to wash even pre-washed greens, berries need to be rewashed, anything that can contain bacteria really easily.

35:44And I also wanted to note that last year, the CDC actually changed the reporting status of that bacteria and made it optional for states to report that. So even the cases we're seeing reported, could be a dramatic underestimate of the number of cases that are out there. Just to clarify, cyclospora is a parasite, not a bacterium, but the advice to wash produce still stands. On Tuesday, we're going to dive much deeper into this. We're going to answer all of your questions about cyclospora and what you need to do to keep yourself safe. You can email those questions to 1a at wamu.org. Let's move to the conflict between the U.S.

36:22and Iran, which escalated dramatically this week with the U.S. launching multiple waves of airstrikes on Iran and reestablishing its blockade of Iranian ports. Iran has responded by targeting radar and fuel infrastructure in the Middle East used by the U.S. military. Shelley, not long ago, we were sitting here, we were talking on the roundup about this memorandum of understanding between the nations, but it seems like we're back again to open conflict. Yeah, I mean, it feels to me like another escalation again and trading these threats. And it feels like the ceasefire has pretty much been thrown out of this window here.

36:57And now, you know, the question becomes, like, what do you even call this at this point? You know, where are we stuck? And, you know, the term forever war started coming up again this week and this sort of dominated the headlines there. Arthur, what are we hearing from folks in Congress about this? Oh, well, it's if you listen And the Democrats, this is straightforward. We're stuck in a war that Trump bumbled into with no plan, and there's no plan to get out of it. The reason we're stuck is that Iran has seized control of the Strait of Hormuz, and it hurts gas prices. It hurts Trump. And the MOU they had, there wasn't an understanding.

37:34They still believe that they can control this waterway and keep hurting our gas prices. And the only way seemingly to make them stop doing that, I guess, is to invade. Like it's just a total disaster politically for Trump. And gas prices are going to start going back up after we had good news about inflation easing last month. So I think it's a real problem. And then if Trump tries to give Iran concessions so that they'll perhaps be more agreeable to ships going through that Strait of Hormuz, the Republicans in Congress will get all mad. They'll say, you're betraying everything we've said about Obama's deal with Iran to stifle its nuclear program.

38:18So this is just a huge myth. It's not just about gas prices. We have to also just talk about the overall economy. New data shows inflation cooled significantly in June as energy prices fell last month during the ceasefire. Shelley, what does the latest Federal Reserve report say? And, of course, that's before everything that happened this week. Yeah, and you have to keep in mind that the data is backward-looking. So we did have a reprieve. There was the ceasefire. There was the MOU. Ships started moving. Oil started moving. Gas prices went down. Like, the engines of the economy started going again.

38:54And you did see consumer prices drop. But you also had Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve chair, come out and say, you know, this is not time to break out the celebrations. You know, we have I am not I don't feel better yet about the economy. This is one month. And if the if the war does sort of jump back up again, then if the hostilities start breaking out again, you are going to see gas prices go up again. Let's hear just a little bit of the back and forth between the president and Kevin Warsh. First, here's the president calling the Federal Reserve report a win and telling reporters at the White House to remember that for the midterms.

39:31Remember that because nobody else could do it. Prices are way down. Prices are coming way down, and we're going to bring them much lower yet. But to your point, Shelley, Kevin Warsh had a much more somber take when he appeared before lawmakers on Capitol Hill for the first time since he became Fed chairman. He warned against celebrating these latest numbers. Amanda, what should we make of this? This is bad news for the administration headed into the midterms in terms of the Republican Party. So if you look at recent polling, 24 to 28 percent of Americans, and that's, you know, a low number, believe the war has been worth the cost to their pocketbook.

40:1186 percent of Americans attribute the recent hikes in gas prices to the Iran conflict. And prices are already up. So by the time the president was saying that this week, you know, where I live in Ohio, prices in June were down to maybe like$339,$329, sometimes a gallon. They're back up to$399. So we're headed back into that$4 approaching$5 territory. So gas prices are volatile and they can go up and down. But Trump is saying prices are down. That's not what anyone actually wants to happen. I mean, as a consumer, you want that. But if inflation comes down, that only means prices go up less. If you have actual price drops and widespread deflation, that means companies are losing money and probably firing lots of employees.

40:57That's a recession. And so I think saying prices are down creates an unrealistic expectation that backfires on the president because people hear him say that. And then they see what prices are actually doing and build a trade. Right. Can you just sort of lay out for Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve what levers they have, how they're doing this delicate dance of trying to manage this? Yeah. And how much they actually can manage it, let's be clear. Yeah. And to sort of set expectations like the economy is still doing very well. The U.S. economy is doing very well. But the inflation picture has not changed.

41:33And, you know, Trump was really pushing a Fed chair who was going to cut rates and try to make borrowing costs lower. And we're just not going to have that anymore. I mean, the markets have sort of priced that in. Warsh has pretty much struck a hawkish tone in his first couple of weeks saying, you know, this is a big, big issue. Right now, there's not a lot the Fed can do short term. They can't, you know, pull a lever and change gas prices or anything like that. It's really more about messaging. And so far we've seen, or say, you know, it's not time to break out the champagne glasses. Yeah, there was one month of okay data.

42:09If Iran starts flaring up again, that's going to change pretty quickly. We just have a few minutes left, and I wanted to just turn to folks' reporter's notebook and share a story you're following. Shelley, can I start with you? I know you wanted to talk about IBM stock plummeting, something that people might have missed this week. Yeah, I was really taken aback by that. IBM, this, you know, sort of old school economy company that has been forever. Everybody knows what IBM is. A very, very old school company really like manages their finances very well, came out and they pre-warned on their earnings.

42:44They came out, you know, a number of days before they were supposed to and say, actually, things were a lot worse than we were expecting. Because of? Because of where a lot of companies are moving their dollars. So they used to be giving them to places like IBM for software and consulting and things like that. And now a lot of IBM's clients are saying, you know, we're actually going to use that money to build out hardware infrastructure for AI, basically. Amanda, what stories have we missed? What did you want to highlight from this week? Yeah, so I've been continuing to track the situation with the Haitian immigrants on temporary protected status that the Supreme Court let take the end of it take effect earlier or late last month.

43:25And there's about 10 days until the deadline, the implementation deadline is for them. And so that's more than 300 ,000 people in this country. And I've been, you know, most familiar with Springfield, Ohio, where there are about a fourth of the population in a city of about 60 ,000. And so I'm tracking that really closely because they're facing an end-of-the-month deadline when they believe that unless they get some other status, they'll need to leave the country. What are you hearing from folks in the community, particularly in Springfield? Yeah, so it continues to be a great deal of uncertainty.

43:57People are trying to figure out their paperwork. They're trying to get paperwork in order for U.S. citizen children. There are a couple thousand children, at least in the Springfield area, that are U.S. citizens of Haitian immigrant parents, many of whom are on TPS. and a lot of the social services organizations up there are preparing for what they fear could be a humanitarian crisis. I'm tracking the Blanche nomination and specifically his involvement in setting up not just the slush fund, the weaponization fund that everyone heard about, but also this deal giving Trump immunity from any taxes he previously owed.

44:35because he was reportedly under audit for more than a decade and potentially owed as much as$100 million if the IRS made an adverse decision. And that was all just let go. And even though they say we're not moving forward with the slush fund, that tax deal is still there. The Justice Department told me so. And someone at the IRS has actually been let go. The Wall Street Journal reported that the person objected to officials ordering favorable audit treatment for the, potentially for the president. So this is, I think, a bigger story than people realize. That's Arthur Delaney, senior reporter at HuffPost.

45:10I want to thank the rest of our panel as well. Amanda Becker, national reporter for the 19th News, and Shelley Banjo, deputy editor-in-chief of Semaphore. After the break, we'll meet our international panel and tackle this week's headlines from around the globe. Stay with us.

45:27Everyone wants to know if AI is conscious, But consciousness is really hard to define. It's the experience we're having right now. What it is like to eat chocolate or to look at the blue sky. So how do we know who or what is conscious? Check out the new ways scientists are finding to measure the elusive phenomenon on Shortwave. Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts. Now we turn to headlines from around the world on the international portion of the weekly news roundup. Joining me today, Joyce Karam, editor-in-chief of El Monitor. We're always happy to have you here in studio with us.

46:01Great to be here, Niall. Robbie Grammer, also with us here in studio, national security reporter at The Wall Street Journal. Robbie, welcome back. Thanks for having me. And joining us remotely, Greg Karlstrom, Middle East correspondent at The Economist. Hi, Greg. Thanks for coming. Hi. Well, we've got a little bit of deja vu again in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. launched several fresh attacks this week against Iranian targets. Iran hit back at U.S. military sites in the region. So far, neither side has shown signs of backing down as they enter a new but familiar stage of the war. Here's what the president told Fox News on Tuesday.

46:34We're going to hit them very hard tonight. We're going to hit them very hard tomorrow night. We're going to hit them very hard the night after. And then next week it gets really bad for them because next week comes the power plants. Next week comes the bridges. We're going to knock out all their power plants. We're going to knock out all their bridges. unless they get to the table and negotiate. The U.S. military has also conducted several daylight campaigns, an unusual move that seems to signal an increasing tempo. Those strikes also reached into areas around Tehran. The Iranian health ministry says at least 38 people in Iran have been killed in U.S.

47:13strikes. More than 400 others have been injured. Robbie, we heard the president saying what he wants to target. Are they imposing the pressure the president hopes they will? Well, the U.S. did strike multiple bridges overnight, and the focus was on supply routes to a port city naval base near the Strait of Hormuz that Iran uses to project its power in the region. So several bridges were attacked around the port city of Bandar Abbas, which is home to an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval base. Very important for the ability to project power into the strait, threaten commercial shipping traffic.

47:49So Iran is feeling the pressure. The question is, is it pressure enough to bend or break the regime or bring the regime back to the negotiating table in a way where the regime would actually negotiate on some of the key points that the U.S. is pushing for, reopening the strait, abandoning its nuclear ambitions? And the answer to that seems to be no. I think the key question now, and you said the word deja vu, I think that's key, is will Iran's maximum concessions meet Trump's minimum demands? And the answer to that still seems to be no. We're in this sort of strategic deadlock or dead end where both sides seem to say, like, someone has to give.

48:30The other side surely has to bend at this point. But neither side seems to be backing down. Joyce, this is less than a month than the memorandum of understanding that Washington and Tehran signed. Is that over? What did that accomplish? Exactly. We are actually at a month since the signing of the MOU in Versailles. The issue now is the structure of the MOU is gone. The ceasefire is not there. The Iranians, despite what you hear from President Trump and others, are effectively closed thermos. We used to be at 100 ships before. Now it's, you know, nine to 13 ships on a good day. So what's happening here is the hopes, the momentum that came with the deal has very much gone.

49:17And Iranians, they do see and are using the leverage that is called the Strait of Hormuz. You know, before this, before the war, there was nuclear negotiations. There was talk that the Iranians will seek nuclear weapon to use that leverage. But now they don't need that. They have Hormuz, that they are using leverage on the global economy, on the regional states. Just in the last week, they've had Qatar, they've had UAE, they've had Jordan, they've had Kuwait, they had a Kuwait desalination plant on Friday. So this is very much the undoing of the MOU that has only one month to go. Greg, to Joyce's point, we see that shipping through the straight dropped to its lowest point in five weeks.

50:05Tankers hit a new low not seen since late May. I just want to talk about one of maybe the most confusing parts of the week was on Tuesday, President Trump proposed and then almost immediately abandoned a suggestion the U.S. could charge a 20 percent toll for clearing the straight. What happened there? Well, this was a half-baked social media musing earlier in the week. As you said, Trump posted this, and then 24 hours later, he reversed himself. It's not clear how the Americans might have collected this toll, even if they wanted to. And the numbers involved are huge. I mean, a 20 percent levy on a tanker, for example, a fully laden tanker carrying crude oil would work out to something like 30 million dollars per ship.

50:53And so this would have amounted to a huge tax on oil and gas and other commodities. Why did Trump reverse himself? I think a couple of reasons. One is probably a lot of people in the administration told him that this idea ran counter to longstanding American policy. which is that freedom of navigation in international waters is seen as a core national interest, ran counter to what his own subordinates have been saying for months, Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth, others. They have all said that no one should be allowed to charge tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. And then I suspect he also heard an earful from leaders in the Gulf who, for obvious reasons, don't want anyone charging fees on shipping through the strait.

51:38So quickly reversed. It's good that it was reversed, but it just goes to show how shambolic the policy process is in the White House right now. So as we're seeing both sides drift further apart on the Strait of Hormuz, the way out of this part of the conflict seems even harder. Joyce, your colleague Elizabeth Hagedorn was on the News Roundup last week and had this to say. Negotiators didn't exactly secure an ironclad agreement in their rush to secure an exit from this war. And if you read parts of the SMOU, much of which is quite vague, including the section on the Strait of Hormuz, you see that Iran commits to safe passage in the strait, toll-free for 60 days.

52:16But the ambiguous wording has let Iran argue that it can control traffic, that it can demand ships follow its routes, not those under U.S. Navy protection. So, Joyce, what do we know about Iran's strategy with the strait? And we know what kind of leverage they have, but what do we think they're going to do with it? For sure. I mean, Iran has moved throughout this conflict first from a complete blockade of the of the strait to now try to monetize the strait. We're seeing them, you know, coordinate with the Omanis to to try to come out with a Gulf local strategy to enforce stalls, to try to work out, for example, arrangement with the Chinese on the side to let Chinese ships go through.

53:01The problem we are facing, Naila, is the U.S. has no good options here. If they don't escalate, Iran will control the strait, and that's a red line for the regional states. If they do escalate, as the vice president said, they don't have the capability, the military capability, to open the strait. So you're in a lose gamble. That's why this is very hard. And that's why going to war with Iran without planning what's going to happen. And Hormuz backfired on the U.S. strategy. You mentioned the vice president. J.D. Vance was on Joe Rogan's podcast this week. He said this. I'm very frustrated by the Americans and, frankly, by people in other countries who are like, you cannot negotiate with the Iranians.

53:49Well, then what is your proposal to get people to stop shooting at ships in the Strait of Hormuz? You can bomb them. You can take away their radar. You can take away some of their drones and some of their missiles. But it's just too easy to fire at ships in the straits. So you've got to actually be willing to talk and to try to figure out the problem. Does the president have a strategy here, we think, for this? That's a great question. It depends on who you ask. I mean, when I talk to people in the administration, the justification for this war was, look, There was going to be a point of no return where Iran built up its conventional missile capabilities enough so it had a big enough shield that it could pursue a nuclear weapon.

54:28And once it got its first nuclear weapon, then it would have the ultimate leverage to control the Strait of Hormuz whenever it wanted, however it wanted. It had that nuclear shield to do whatever it wanted. So their argument is we are trying to preempt this. We are successful in that we've degraded the Iranian military. The Strait of Hormuz, obviously a huge diplomatic headache now, but their nuclear ambitions at the moment are on pause. Now, of course, the counter to that and one counter to the vice president, what's your proposal? Some might say don't start the war in the first place. Listen to the experts in government who may have been sidelined saying the Strait of Hormuz will become their maximum point of leverage.

55:09What's going on now? I mean, it's just as Joyce said, Trump basically has no good options left. I mean, the way that I see it is his options are either walk away, which would be a victory for Tehran, negotiate a bad deal because the Iranian regime, which has proved remarkably durable and willing to endure this pain or have its citizens endure this pain, resistant to negotiations or continue in this sort of forever air war from afar while hoping that at least something comes out of the woodwork to try to bring a change. Joyce, can I just ask you, as we think about widening this conversation out to other regional actors, are you seeing any other ways out of this with neighboring states, particularly with the Strait of Hormuz situation?

55:53Great question. It's increasingly, Naila, looking like these regional states are looking for plan B to bypass Hormuz. So just this week, we've seen the Iraqi prime minister in Washington sign a major deal with Chevron for Iraq-Syria pipeline that would allow Iraqi oil, 5 percent of the global market, to go through Syria into the Mediterranean since Hormuz is blocked. The UAE is looking into doing its own exit pipelines through the port of Fujairah, for example. The Saudis are also looking south. Turkey, for example, is increasingly very appealing for Europe and other countries to get that oil that's stuck in Hormuz.

56:38So I think the region is at a point where they're no longer waiting for a breakthrough, a major breakthrough on the maritime strategy for this war and looking for alternatives to Hormuz so they can avoid Iranian blackmail. So we can't have this conversation without also talking about Israel. Of course, the war started on February 28th as a joint effort between the U.S. and Israel. Here's another clip of Vice President Vance on Joe Rogan this week. But I know beyond a shadow of a doubt that there have been people within the Israeli government who are trying to, like, actually shift us away from that policy because they want to continue the military campaign.

57:20Greg, what's your response to what we heard there? What do you make of the vice president's comments about Israel? Well, I think there's at least one person in the Israeli system who wanted the war to continue, and that's the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who we've seen for the past almost three years now since October 7th, whether it's in Gaza or Lebanon or Iran, has pushed ahead and continued wars partly for his own self-interested political reasons. And so I think I don't think Vance is wrong in his analysis here. But there's been a lot of disagreement, I would say, within the Israeli security establishment about the wisdom of going another round with Iran, of trying to extend the war.

58:04You do have some people arguing in favor of that. You have others who think that the gains of continued fighting are marginal at this point and that it's better to stop the war, perhaps continue some sort of economic pressure on Iran, but stop fighting and perhaps allow for some sort of internal change to happen. So there's a division within Israel over how to proceed. I would even say it is remarkable to hear the American vice president go that publicly and criticize Israel. We haven't seen that tone since probably Secretary of State Jim Baker and during the George Bush, first Bush era. And that didn't go well for Bush.

58:47This is also a reflection. A very different time in American politics now. Very different time. I mean, especially if you look at the votes that have happened this week with among Democrats in Israel. Exactly. So this is this is just Vance saying business as usual cannot continue with with this government in Israel, Whether that it's a short-term strategy to force a change in the election in Israel, perhaps to be seen. But we cannot ignore the internal dynamics within the U.S. public and the Tucker Carlson vans, Megyn Kelly wing versus what Greg mentioned. You know, the other camp in the administration where you see Marco Rubio and others who are more aligned with Israel.

59:28And Robbie, that's the Republican side. Can we just talk about Democrats and where you think shifting American public opinion is on support for Israel just in this context? Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, there's for decades been this sort of ironclad bipartisan consensus on support for Israel, especially within Congress, within successive White Houses. That is cratering. You're seeing a lot of pressure, as Joyce said, from the sort of MAGA flank of the Republican Party and also on the other side from progressive Democrats who have soured on Israel very quickly under Netanyahu's government, both in response to Israel's campaign in Gaza after the October 7 terrorist attacks back in 2023 and also in response to this.

1:00:19Iran war, including some who correctly or incorrectly think Israel had a role to play in helping drag Trump into this war that seems to be spiraling into yet another costly Middle Eastern war with no end in sight. And that's a blinking red alarm bell for Israel. Its most important security partner, political partner is the United States. So when they see that support cratering, especially in the younger generations of Congress as the older generations step aside. That's a really huge strategic type of problem for them that they have to tackle. Question we got on email from Tom who says, are we still liable for the$300 billion in reparations for destroying the Iranian infrastructure?

1:01:13I mean, what I would say is I cannot foresee any administration, particularly this administration, trying to pay back the Iranian regime for destroyed infrastructure. Obviously, in different iterations of these negotiations, Trump has dangled economic incentives for Iran here. But all of those incentives, according to administration officials, were for other countries to open up or to bring new investment lines and new revenue into Iran if it agreed to a final nuclear deal. And of course, that if is what's hanging over this entire war right now. Greg, before we leave the region, can I just ask you about this recent round of strikes on both sides?

1:01:56Has it shifted the balance of power? Has it simply reinforced the stalemate? I think it's the latter. In military terms, we saw far more intense strikes on both sides earlier in the war. So I think the impact of what we've seen over the past 10 days is fairly limited. I think ultimately the balance of power here will be determined by economic factors. Who is going to blink first? Will it be Donald Trump if we see oil prices start to climb to the levels that they were at in March or April? Or will it be the Iranians if they remain under American blockade? You know, inflation there is running at 90 percent or so right now.

1:02:38A million people have lost their jobs since the war started. Who does this economic pressure hit first? I think that's that's ultimately the question that matters rather than these limited strikes that we're seeing each night. Let's move to Ukraine, where fighting has led to the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians since the earliest months of Russia's full-scale invasion. The UN's human rights mission in Ukraine says at least 293 Ukrainian civilians died in June. So far this year, the war has killed just under 1 ,400 civilians in Ukraine. About 8 ,000 have been injured. Robbie, what's changing in Russia's military tactics that's leading to this big jump in deaths?

1:03:20There are two main issues here. The first is that the war is not going well for Putin. This was supposed to be a three-day special military operation to subjugate Ukraine that has spiraled into a multi-year war with staggering losses for the Russian side. Some estimates put it at 20 ,000 to 30 ,000 Russian casualties per month. And so as part of this, because Russia has been unable to make battlefield gains, they're just starting to target Russian civilians. These missiles are striking hospitals. Russian missiles are striking kindergartens in Ukraine. They're striking civilian targets. And the second problem here is that there's a very severe and dwindling supply of air defense interceptors, especially Patriot missiles, U.S.

1:04:04Patriot – U.S.-made Patriot missiles that Ukraine relied on. And so that combination of Russia just escalating strikes on civilian targets and the fact that Ukraine is running out of these supplies is turning into a very grim chapter in the war, even as on the battlefield it seems like Ukraine has the upper hand at the moment. And meanwhile, we saw rare protests in a few of Ukraine's biggest cities this week. Here's central Kiev.

1:04:37The cause the government reshuffles seems pretty benign, but as you can hear, people were animated. Greg, what's happened that led to this outrage? So what happened was the unexpected dismissal of the Ukrainian defense minister, Mikhail Fedorov, who was sacked earlier this week by President Zelensky. My colleagues wrote this week in The Economist that Fedorov was someone who was quick to ruffle feathers and slow to build alliances, which I think helps to explain why he was pushed out. He doesn't come from a military background. He was Ukraine's minister of digital transformation before the war.

1:05:17Once the war started, Fedorov pivoted to drones, to building up Ukraine's drone program. and we're seeing the fruits of that today. But he's also someone who clashed with the older generals in the Ukrainian military. Now, when you talk to them, they say that this is someone who didn't understand how to plan a military campaign. And yes, he did good work on drones, but drones aren't the only thing the army needs. And there's, as Robbie said, a shortage of interceptors. He hasn't done enough to procure missiles and ammunition. These are the complaints from Ukrainian generals. But Fedorov is also someone who styled himself as a reformist, as a sort of anti-corruption figure.

1:05:59He audited the defense ministry. He said he uncovered billions of dollars in overspending, wasteful spending. He's tried to rework the procurement processes, which mean that some well-connected people in Ukraine weren't getting contracts. And so that's another reason why you can imagine he clashed with the powers that be. And I think that's why we're seeing protests in Ukraine right now, where corruption has been a salient political issue for many years. People feel like President Zelensky pushed out a reformist and pushed out someone who oversaw a drone campaign that, at the moment, in places like Crimea, looks to be working.

1:06:37Robby, meanwhile, we did see President Zelensky in Paris on Monday to meet with European leaders and defense firm CEOs to talk about air defense. To your point, 10 members of the so-called Coalition of the Willing announced they were forming a new coalition. They're calling it the Integrated Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition. What's that supposed to be? It is basically a large economic venture to say we need air defense interceptors and we need them now. Right now, the money's there. Europe is pouring billions into new defense budgets. The problem is the production lines are not. Making these types of complex air defense systems, You know, one Patriot missile, I don't have the exact figures in front of me, but costs a significant number of times more than it takes for the type of drone or missile that it intercepts.

1:07:28And so they're saying we need to scale up the production of these air defense interceptors, and we are just desperate to get any interceptors we can. The United States had a lot of patriot systems that were sitting on the shelf that they dispersed earlier in the previous administration to Ukraine. But they also burned up a lot protecting U.S. assets in the Middle East and Gulf allies during this latest war with Iran. So right now the demand is there. The monies are there. But the shelves are bare. And Europe is saying we need to pool all our money together and get production lines up and running as fast as possible, not just for Ukraine.

1:08:04But if there's in the future a confrontation between Russia and NATO, wider members of Europe, we need to be ready for that. Let's move on to the latest from Gaza. It's been nine months since the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in October. Since then, fighting on the ground in Gaza has slowed, but Israeli airstrikes have continued. And Israeli command over Gaza has grown, now controlling nearly 70 percent of the enclave. The EU is launching a new plan to help Gaza recover from Israel's bombardment. Over 90 percent of Gaza's more than 2 million residents have been displaced. 73 ,000 people have been killed since October 7, 2023, when Hamas fighters launched an attack into Israel.

1:08:45Joyce, on Monday, there was this billion-dollar campaign announcement to fund projects to help rebuild Gaza. I should note the UN says it will cost more than$70 billion to rebuild Gaza. But where is this billion dollars coming from? How far can it go? So as you mentioned, it's just a fraction. It's 1.4 percent of what the UN estimates are Gaza needs. It's symbolic, but it's also, you know, signaling EU leadership commitment to just change the situation in Gaza. The problem here, Naila, is the delivery is uncertain. Israel still controls 70 percent, occupies 70 percent of Gaza. The access is also politically contingent because in areas where the Palestinians control Gaza, it's Hamas.

1:09:33And Hamas, as we know, is a corrupt militant organization. So how much they will politicize this money, what will go for actual reconstruction and what will go to embolden Hamas, it's unclear. There's also political strings attached. The EU is urging Hamas's disarmament as part of the framework. So it's very early to determine whether this is a serious plan or just a symbolic pledge from the EU. The situation on the ground is still terrible, very much like President Trump's plan on Iran. This is just stuck. We've never actually launched phase two of the Gaza ceasefire plan. To the situation on the ground on Thursday, UNICEF spokesperson Louise Wateridge joined 1A to talk about the most urgent needs in Gaza right now.

1:10:24Access is really continuing to be a continued struggle for us. And when I talk about that, I mean, you know, critical supplies like fuel and pesticides, medicine, spare parts for desentilation plants. A lot of the infrastructure is completely destroyed now. So if you're thinking in Gaza, you know, you're not just turning on a tap to get water. The infrastructure is not there. It's a whole population relying on trucking. Basically, over two million people, for which half is children, so a million children in the Gaza Strip. And they're relying on everything coming into the Gaza Strip. Well, a new report from The Wall Street Journal highlights the treatment of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli detention.

1:11:06Around 9 ,300 Palestinians are being held in Israeli prisons for alleged security offenses. Before the war, that number was around 5 ,200 people. That's according to an Israeli nonprofit tracking prison data. The Wall Street Journal interviewed 12 recently released Palestinian prisoners. They described physical abuse and starvation. Two men reported sexual assault in Israeli custody. Physicians for Human Rights Israel says 105 Palestinians have died in Israeli custody from October 2023 to June 2026. Joyce, what's being done in and out of Israel to address the treatment of Palestinians being held in Israeli custody?

1:11:48You know, the Wall Street Journal is just yet another report on a very important issue that when the New York Times reports it, Nick Kristof, when the UN documents it, when Al Jazeera reports it, it's documented. But then little gets done. As you mentioned, the number of these prisoners has only increased since the war of October 7. Even 350 of them are minor or under the age of 18. Some of the stories are just horrific. So beyond documentation, not much is being done right now, despite, you know, some calls from Israeli civil society groups to just champion their struggle and the violations going on.

1:12:34Much of this information is coming from Israeli nonprofit groups. Exactly. The problem, though, is you have a government in Israel now with Ben-Gavir denying rights to any of these prisoners. Even when they're detained, there is no lawful—not always there is a lawful, clear process of how—is it martial law? Is it something else? So it's very much, yeah, it's a stain on this government, and it's going to depend what happens in the next election to see if this issue gets resolved. But it's at least documented right now, and it's getting international media exposure. So Israel's national elections have been set for October 27th.

1:13:19A Hebrew University of Jerusalem poll shows support for Netanyahu fell from around 40 % in early March to around 29 % in June. Greg, Netanyahu's government, as Joyce has been talking about, is one of the most far-right in Israeli history. How are we thinking unfavorable attitudes towards Netanyahu will affect him and his party in October? It's a very difficult election for him, and it's yet another Israeli election that will be essentially a referendum on one man. Do you want Netanyahu to be the prime minister or not? And the challenge for him is that for many years his selling point has been, I am Mr.

1:13:58Security, I can keep you safe. And that reputation is in tatters now. His current term more or less bookended by the worst security failure in Israeli history on October 7th. and an inconclusive war with Iran earlier this year. And whilst all of that was going on, Netanyahu has done everything in his power to ensure that ultra-Orthodox Jews, one of his coalition partners, can continue to be exempted from mandatory military service at a time when most other Israeli Jews have been serving long tours of reserve duty. So he's quite unpopular. His chief opponent, Gadi Eisenkot, is a former army chief whose son was killed fighting in Gaza in late 2023.

1:14:44So someone who is difficult to attack on security grounds and who paid a very heavy personal price in these wars. It's difficult ground for Netanyahu. And yet the main thing that he has going for him, as usual, is that the Israeli opposition is divided. So, yes, you look at polls now and the anti-Netanyahu camp has more seats in parliament than Netanyahu does. When you ask people, who do you want to be prime minister? Eisenkot often has a plurality. Netanyahu comes in second. But can the opposition form a viable government? It's not clear if they can. And that may be Netanyahu's only path to victory in October is hoping that his opponents won't be able to form a government.

1:15:26And for the first time, Naila, in this election, we're seeing Netanyahu getting the cold shoulder from the White House. So this is also significant. A few days ago, we confirmed that he was visiting the United States. He was due to arrive Saturday night, Netanyahu, and to meet, perhaps meet President Trump Monday or Tuesday. Then this on Thursday, his office said he has to reschedule because Lindsey Graham's funeral has been delayed. It's unclear, actually, if it's about Lindsey Graham's funeral or if he didn't get the meetings that he wanted from the administration. So for the first time since the war, just Netanyahu's international, what he's always used as the favorite son of Washington and U.S.

1:16:24politics is now seen as more isolated internationally and definitely by the administration. One last question about the region. I wanted to ask you about, Joyce. We have seen Israeli forces beginning to withdraw from parts of southern Lebanon. Israel's maintained a presence in Lebanon since the start of the Iran war. where there's sort of this creation of these pilot zones as part of this framework between Israel, Lebanon, and the U.S. State Department where Israel's turning over control of southern Lebanon to the Lebanese government. Where are these? How much territory is Israel still going to be occupying?

1:17:00So these are very small towns in the south that are a testing ground of Israeli withdrawal and then the Lebanese army would step in. And it has happened. It is effective as a small test, but Israel very much still controls big portion of southern Lebanon. The timing, though, is significant, Naila, because the Lebanese president arrives on Saturday to the United States due to meet President Trump on Tuesday. This is the first such visit for a Lebanese leader since 2009. We're seeing the administration just ramp up its support for Lebanon, trying to see if there is an opportunity there to move the framework, the security framework with Israel to a larger agreement.

1:17:46But of course, you need a full Israeli buy-in for withdrawal. And that hasn't happened yet. On Monday, the State Department launched a campaign to diplomatically dismantle the International Criminal Court over what Secretary of State Marco Rubio called a threat to American sovereignty. But as we speak, the ICC and its friends are waging a war against our country, not with bullets or missiles, but with statutes, compacts, and the force of so-called international law. When the ICC was born 24 years ago, they told us that it was merely a narrow backstop, a global court that would step in to prosecute only the gravest offenses, things like genocide and war crimes, and only when a nation's courts were unable to prosecute them on their own.

1:18:34But the truth is, it was something far more radical and extreme. It was a global tribunal staffed by unelected globalist bureaucrats who claim their power is almost unlimited. In an op-ed published in The Wall Street Journal, Rubio warned of, quote, a world in which U.S. soldiers, police officers, border patrol agents, and elected officials could be dragged before an international court tried by judges from random countries around the globe, found guilty under international laws we neither consent to nor control. Robbie, probably important to point out here the U.S. isn't a member of the ICC, was not part of its founding.

1:19:10The president has openly expressed his dislike of the court since the first term, signing several executive orders related to this. So why this campaign now? I mean, look, the ICC has long been a target of successive U.S. administrations, particularly Republican administrations, for exactly what Rubio said. In their eyes, this is a court that is unaccountable to any American voter, any American policymaker, and could theoretically have jurisdiction over charging Americans over certain crimes here. And this was sped up by some of the ICC indictments against Israeli leaders, including Netanyahu and the former defense minister, Galan.

1:19:53Israel is also not a party to the Rome statute, the founding treaty of the ICC, but the Palestinian territories are. And so Trump officials were pretty infuriated and thought they were spurious and unfounded, you know, underscoring bias of international institutions against Israel. I mean, the counter here is that there are no open cases against Americans in the ICC. The ICC is mainly for crimes against humanity and war crimes. And it was originally set up for countries that just didn't have the developed type of judicial systems where they could hold people like this accountable. So there is this huge political debate right now in Washington among some of these legal experts and policymakers of like is this campaign – is it well-founded?

1:20:45Is it grounded in fact? Is there actually a targeting of Americans or are they targeting an international institution that could be important for holding to account people who committed war crimes in places like Sudan? or Libya or Afghanistan. No, and I agree with Robbie. It's a curious case from this administration because on the one hand, yes, we know. We know President Trump doesn't like international law. He's said it on the record. I don't want international law. I have my own morality. I have my own laws that just guide me how I govern. Fine. But in this case, particularly Naila, why don't we reform the ICC, especially if you're not a signatory to the Rome statute.

1:21:33The wars that the U.S. is fighting in Iran, the strikes they've done in the Caribbean and Afghanistan, the ICC cannot go after these because Iran, Afghanistan, and in the Caribbean area, those cannot be prosecuted because they're not signatories. So the timing is just conspicuous. Why do this now? Now, the only targets for the ICC recently that has been controversial in U.S. politics have been Israel and going after Benjamin Netanyahu. Not to say that the ICC does not have flaws. They've been over-focused on Africa, on Israel. But why not, you know, proceed with reforming the ICC rather than dismantling the whole thing?

1:22:17Greg, one last question on this. Is it even feasible to try to diplomatically dismantle the ICC? What can or can the U.S. do here? I mean, the U.S. can't literally dismantle it. It's an international body that can only be dissolved with the agreement of member states. And the U.S. is not a member state, but it can make it very difficult for the ICC to do its work. We've already seen the U.S. impose individual sanctions on judges and prosecutors and things like that. Visa bans, travel bans, banking sanctions would have a chilling effect on people going to work for the court. And then you could imagine conceivably, depending on how far you want to push this, you could impose commercial sanctions as well.

1:23:02If you make it difficult for banks or insurance companies or even software vendors to work with the ICC, you could effectively cripple its ability to do its job. OK, we are going to put aside political news for a few moments for the rest of the hour, because with this. A spectacular Spanish display. Spain will play the World Cup final. And this. And Argentina, the world champions, are going to the 2026 final. Spain beat France in one semifinal on Tuesday. Argentina rallied to beat England 2-1 in the other semi on Wednesday. And the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup final between Spain and Argentina is set.

1:23:48Argentina is seeking its fourth title, looking to become the first back-to-back World Cup champion since Brazil. Pulled that off in 1958. in 1962. Spain is looking for its second title after winning in 2010. So, Joyce, you get to go first because you're wearing a jersey in the studio, so you get to go first here on just a showdown of soccer's present versus soccer's future here. Predictions? Hopes? Highlights? No, I contemplated whether I come in a white flag or my France jersey, but then, yeah, I insisted on wearing my France jersey. Great World Cup, you know, despite everything happening. Predictions, I'm terrible at it, as you can tell.

1:24:32But, you know, I mean, it's going to be a great game. Argentina has been feisty, has been combative. There is no one like Lionel Messi. We like Argentina. We don't like Argentina. He's just, he's very unique in how he plays and a legend. Spain has been very controlled of the game. So, you know, experts say they have the upper hand. We'll see on Sunday. Robbie? I just hope both teams lose. What? I just, you know, I was, every team I was cheering for, Spain and Argentina. That's a great answer. I've never heard anyone say that. I will point out that Cabo Verde, the favorite, the underdog. Well, they won everyone's hearts.

1:25:15They won everyone's hearts. They brought both of these teams to a draw in 90 minutes of playing. um and so um i uh you know that part of me would i think it'd be very interesting to see messi take home yet another world cup win to cement his status as a legend um but every team i've cheered for outside of the united states obviously has has lost so i will be watching and i i will i guess i will defer to joyce and just uh have her tell me which team to support here because all my teams have been eliminated. Yeah, same for me too. Greg, what's been the view of the U.S., mostly the U.S., Canada, Mexico hosting this tournament?

1:25:54Curious your thoughts on that from outside the U.S. Well, I think the only low light of the U.S. and Canada and Mexico hosting it from where I am is the time difference. I mean, I really wanted to watch the U.S.-Belgium match. Was that about a week ago, but I couldn't justify waking up at 3 a.m. on a weekday to watch it, which was when it started here. So that's been the only downside. Aside from that, I mean, in terms of predictions, I feel like Argentina is going to win. That would be my guess. And you just have to feel for England. Honestly, I'm not an England fan, but I feel like every World Cup, they think this is going to be their year, only to have it ripped away from them in some heartbreaking fashion.

1:26:35Yeah, I can say my family in England definitely feels all of that heartbreak. Well, if you're looking for more soccer talk on 1A, you can tune in next Tuesday. I will wear my jersey as we break down the highs and lows of this World Cup, what the off-field drama has been, and we look forward to next summer's Women's World Cup. And we want to hear from you. What was your favorite memory of the World Cup? You can leave us a voicemail at 855-236-1A1A, or you can leave us a message using our app, 1A VoxPop, and we'll share your stories on Tuesday. A big thank you to our panelists, Robbie Grammer, national security reporter at The Wall Street Journal, Greg Karlstrom, Middle East correspondent at The Economist, and Joyce Karam, editor-in-chief of El Monitor.

1:27:14Mike Kidd is our sound designer and engineer. Chris Castano is our digital editor. Maya Garg is our senior managing producer. Alexandra Boti is our senior supervising producer. Chris Turpin is our executive producer. Aileen Humphreys is the editor and producer of 1A On Demand. And Thomas Liu produces our podcast. Special thanks to Matthew Simonson for additional podcast and on-demand support this week. This program comes to you from WAMU, part of American University in Washington. Distributed by NPR, I'm Nyla Boodoo. Have a great weekend. Enjoy the games. This is 1A.

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