The News Roundup For March 13, 2026

19:10Joshua Johnson:Not aware of anywhere in the medical economy where drug prices, except maybe for one drug for a narrow cross-section of patients, is down 60, 70, 80, or 90 percent. But, Arthur, recent polls show that voters are not buying President Trump's rosy economic view. And a lot of people think he's focusing on the wrong things. Polls are showing that. How are Republicans thinking about the politics of war and affordability and how they interact heading into the midterms? The main thing that they're talking about in this is gas prices. And the president has said, well, they'll go back down. And that's what House Speaker Mike Johnson has said.

19:47Joshua Johnson:There's a few other Republicans, though, who are trying to justify it by saying, well, this is worth the higher cost because the war will bring peace to the world. And I think that's a tough sell. No one voted for that. People voted for the opposite of that. This is flying in the face of everything Trump campaigned on, and it was the main reason he got elected. So it's a disaster for Republicans politically. So talk a little bit about more about Republicans here, Alana. I mean, Arthur's right. Trump campaigned on no more forever wars. I'm the president who ends wars, doesn't start them, on and on.

20:23Joshua Johnson:His base embraced it. Marjorie Taylor Greene embraced it. true MAGA. Then he teamed up with Israel to attack Iran. How are his supporters, including a lot of the GOP base, GOP lawmakers, their supporters, the MAGA base, making sense of this abrupt about face that Arthur describes, especially with the midterms right around the corner?

20:47Jennifer F. Rubin:Well, to be honest, they're making sense of it the same way they made sense of the tariffs, the same way they made sense of a lot of, you know, remember Greenland, a lot of shocking and stunning things that Trump has done, which is just to kind of hope, like Arthur was saying, it ends soon and frankly be in denial. And I think this is all going to change, obviously, after the midterms when they have a chance to face voters. But it's no accident that Republicans are currently fixating on a bill that would set new strict requirements for voting because they are privately very nervous, very, about how this affects their standing in the midterms.

21:20Jennifer F. Rubin:It's just not something most of them want to talk about publicly right now because crossing Trump never pays off.

21:26Joshua Johnson:Well, if we talk about the midterms and we talk about voting, we have to talk about the SAVE Act. That's a piece of sweeping voting legislation that's already passed the GOP House. President Trump has turned the SAVE Act into a crusade on the right. Now he says he will not sign any bills into law until the Senate passes the SAVE Act. And the problem here, Republican leaders have been clear for many, many months. We've talked about it. Arthur Delaney, You've talked about it. They don't have the votes to pass it. More on that in one second. What does the SAVE Act do? The SAVE Act would require you to prove your citizenship when you register to vote and to show ID when you actually cast your ballot.

22:11Joshua Johnson:And that's a major change from how it is that last part. When you register to vote now, you don't prove your citizenship, but you do a test under the penalty of, you know, under the potential threat of a criminal penalty that you are a citizen. And there's just no evidence that this is an actual problem. What about Americans who don't carry proof of citizenship around with them or don't have it at home? They still have a right to vote. So this is, this law, the latest version of this law actually acknowledges what a hassle this creates. They didn't used to have the voter ID part of it. And as a result of adding this, including for mail ballots, which you would have to send in a photocopy of your ID, the law requires state governments to have a photocopier in public buildings.

22:57Joshua Johnson:A photocopier. Yeah. So the government's going to have to get into the business of having you Xerox and print out paper with your ID. I don't think this aspect of it has really been reckoned with. I don't think Republicans sincerely believe it has any chance of passing. They just want to talk about it because they don't like unfunded mandates on state. And Trump is actually saying, start over, right? We're talking about the SAVE Act. He wants now the SAVE America Act, which is this plus trans stuff rolled in. He wants it rebranded as SAVE America, and he wants trans rights or lack of trans rights.

23:29Joshua Johnson:Why? Extraneous stuff, anti-trans? Right. So no men in women's sports and a ban on procedures for minors. What does that have to do with voting? Nothing. And he thinks it will just politically pin Democrats, and I suppose Republicans, so they have to vote for it. Okay, that's Josh Wingrove, White House reporter for Bloomberg. Arthur Delaney is here, and Alana Shore from Semaphore. I'm Todd Zwillick. You're listening to 1A. Well, the president says he will sign nothing until the SAVE Act passes. On Thursday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he would move forward with a vote on the SAVE Act next week.

24:09Joshua Johnson:But as with most things in the Senate, Alana Shor needs 60 votes. There are not 60 votes. And on the right, Trump has turned this into a war against John Thune, the Republican majority leader. Why? Why is MAGA making this existential when the majority leader keeps saying math, math, math, math?

24:34Jennifer F. Rubin:quite simply because sometimes a party's base particularly the republican parties gets caught up in a fever dream and that is essentially what this is the idea that a bill that as josh just helped explain is now some kind of a frankenstein and p.s those provisions have not yet been added to the bill so what are they even going to vote on they've they've fixated on the right on this and believed that it will you know deliver the midterms to republicans because trump is telling them that. There's no evidence that's actually the case. Forget about the math. But the real kind of tragedy for the party, the self-own, as maybe some kids still say, is that Thune's a pretty effective leader.

25:13Jennifer F. Rubin:And Trump is just kind of destroying his relationship with a guy who's been remarkably successful at kind of quieting rebellions and getting things done. So this will ultimately just hurt the party in the long term.

25:23Joshua Johnson:Arthur, there's the why question here. There's the why. I mean, I have seen a shocking number of Republicans on Capitol Hill say it directly. This is our only hope in the midterms. This bill makes it harder to vote. They are openly saying we lose the midterms, what, unless it's harder to vote? I think that it's more they want to, they know it won't pass, and they want to create the impression that, or perhaps they want to create the impression that because they didn't get the SAVE Act, that's why they lost, that illegals stole the election. Now, that's a, they won't admit to that. I've asked some Republicans and I say, well, no, but I think Trump is likes the idea of a pretext because this is an election that looks like Republicans will not do well in.

26:08Joshua Johnson:Americans' confidence in fair elections has plummeted. We have the data. The fight over the SAVE Act might help explain why. Only two thirds of Americans say they're confident now that their state or local government will run fair and accurate elections down 10 percentage points from the month before 2024. That's according to a PBS News NPR Marist poll. Josh Wingrove, what insights do you glean from that? What I glean from it is that Donald Trump has used a years-long campaign to undermine faith in elections that he has lost, and it's working. Yes, because you can lack confidence in your state's ability to carry an election from both sides of the political aisle.

26:47You can lack confidence because you think Trump's going to Kool-Aid man through the wall and mess with it,

26:52Joshua Johnson:or you can lack confidence because you are a Trump supporter and you think Democrats are secretly mailing in ballots or whatever. And so this is hanging over it. Trump has mused about taking over state election apparatuses. Blue state, red state, doesn't matter. We don't know yet whether he will try to use the power of the executive branch to do that. I should note that one thing this might cost Majority Leader Thune is his job as Majority Leader, right? In this, what has been the case is that everyone thinks Democrats will win the House, but Republicans will probably hold the Senate. They have 53 seats right now.

27:24Joshua Johnson:Now the odds are basically have moved to, you know, half. But Arthur, what happens next now? Thune says, I'll put it on the floor. There's all this pressure. End the filibuster, talking filibuster. We won't let it off the floor. We have months for this. Are we headed for a crisis in the Senate? Will anyone notice? There had been talk about essentially changing filibuster rules and having a talking filibuster forcing Democrats to talk and talk and talk until they theoretically would tire out and give up. Thune said he doesn't want to do that, and they may do a mini version of it where there's lots of talking.

27:57Joshua Johnson:Democrats like doing that, though. A current senator is the world record holder for Senate talking, Cory Booker. So they're saying bring it on. Before we head to a break, I want to update some news from the Associated Press. We mentioned that four crew members had died on the U.S. tanker that had a crash in Iraq. Now, a report from the AP, all six crew aboard a USKC-135 refueling aircraft that crashed in Iraq are dead, according to the U.S. military. That's a flash from the Associated Press. Much more to come on this week's news right after the break.

28:40Jennifer F. Rubin:It's Oscar season, and we watched the nominated movies, so you don't have to. We are making some bold predictions for Hollywood's biggest night, and we may help you win your Oscars pool. Listen to Pop Culture Happy Hour in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

28:58Joshua Johnson:Welcome back to the Friday News Roundup on the 1A podcast. Before we get back into it with the panel, I just want to take a moment for international joy. Spring is trying. Oh, it's trying to break through. it's trying hard and that to many of us around the world means baseball the world baseball classic is going on now a lot of the world's best players all are playing for their countries worldwide tournament style it's awesome team usa of course among the favorites but on tuesday this week a shocker italy versus the united states and well um this will explain it

29:53Joshua Johnson:A slider down and in, Aaron Judge strikes out, and Italy beats the United States 8-6. Not good. It happened, Arthur. Now, to be clear, let's just be clear. Most of the Italian players are Americans, Italian Americans. Most of them are big leaguers or professional players in the United States. But still, look, Italy loves it, and they should. Someone said it's like the USA beating Italy in a pasta-making competition. Maybe. Anyway, I just wanted to share that, USA versus Canada tonight in the quarterfinal. Keep your eyes on the Dominican Republic, DR. They are loads of fun. The Americans could learn a thing or three for them about how to have fun playing baseball.

30:34Joshua Johnson:Anyway, I just wanted to share that little moment because I loved it. Let's get back to— Can I also just shout out as a Canadian? Oh. Tonight is Canada, U.S. And we have a chance for revenge. Yeah, may I shout out U.S. hockey? If somehow Canada beats U.S. at baseball but lost at hockey, I think things are really upside down right now. If that happens, Josh Wengrove, you and I will have dinner on me. I appreciate it. We'll put it on the line. I feel pretty confident, but I shouldn't feel too confident. Hey, Italy can do it. The Canadians can. We can borrow the Italian espresso. We got this question from Susan in Ohio.

31:08Joshua Johnson:Back on the issue of the SAVE Act, Arthur. This is a great question. Is it true that this bill will keep anyone whose birth certificate name and ID name don't match from voting? Mine don't match because I took my husband's last name. That is one of the main problems with the bill that Democrats have highlighted. They've said it disenfranchises potentially millions of women. Republicans have disputed that. But honestly, because it is a moot point and I don't think this will pass, I cannot definitively say, having not read that part of the text, I was reading the part about photocopiers' apologies.

31:47Joshua Johnson:But, yes, that's a legitimate gripe. All right. While we're in the Senate, let's move on to a very rare moment of bipartisan cooperation. It happened this week. The question was, will it go anywhere or bash up against the wall of the House? On Thursday, the Senate passed a bill trying to ease America's housing crisis. Here's Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, one of the sponsors of the bill that got a lot of Republican votes, celebrating passage.

32:12Jennifer F. Rubin:The big problem is we just don't have enough housing in America, and we need more housing of every kind. Housing for first-time homebuyers, housing for renters, housing for seniors, for people with disabilities, for people who have no housing, for people growing their families, rural, urban. And what this bill is about is more.

32:32Joshua Johnson:Rare that a bill sponsored by Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts gets a lot of Republican votes along the shore, but that's what happened here. Give us the highlights. What does it do?

32:42Jennifer F. Rubin:This is basically the most major housing bill Congress has taken up in, you know, 30 plus years. It would modernize a lot of existing federal housing programs. The overall goal is to create more incentives to increase supply, which is a major driver for the rising prices that we're seeing. It would also remove some regulations that are currently getting in the way. And how often does Elizabeth Warren support deregulation? It's kind of a rising sense, I think, among some progressives that Democrats need to kind of embrace outmoded rules getting out of the way to speed economic growth, what we sometimes collectively call abundance, although Warren wouldn't say, I'm an abundance Democrat.

33:19Jennifer F. Rubin:But the one thing this bill does that people are really concerned about is it would limit institutional investors' role in the market, essentially forcing these big financial firms that possess a certain number of, you know, single family housing units to get rid of that. And that is what could bring the bill down.

33:36Joshua Johnson:Could bring the bill down in the House, passage in the House very much in doubt as it heads there. Now, Punchbowl News reported this week that the president said this to Mike Johnson in a private conversation, no one gives a blank about housing. I'll let you fill in the blank there. That coming from a, you know, career real estate developer says no one gives a blank about housing. Arthur, what does this mean for the fate of the bill? Why is Trump apparently not interested? Well, he's doing a war. He's preoccupied with that. And Congress is, he got his tax cuts. I think that was the main thing he wanted.

34:12Joshua Johnson:And he controls the other thing he likes, which is tariffs. So it's, he doesn't care about it. I asked the White House, do you like this bill? And they said, yes, we like it as it is. It's a bill of bills. It's got like more than 40 things in it. And the part that Alana mentioned is a huge problem. A lot of people voted for it in the Senate, hoping that the House would fix that by changing the definition of institutional investors. There's also Republicans in the House who have other gripes about it. So you know how the House, the House is messy and it's a problem. The House is a total mess, but things like this with the narrow majority and the utter mess of the House and its leadership right now is that this bill has no prayer unless Donald Trump makes it a thing and orders Republicans to pass it.

35:00Joshua Johnson:So you're going to do that? Well, what he said to Mike Johnson, I think, is a big deal. Ostensibly, they still support it. there's so many cross-cutting problems, political issues going on related to this that I don't know. Even Democrats were split on this over that institutional investor provision. And one of them was saying, Brian Shatz of Hawaii, that everyone wants this fixed. And you're just saying we can't because we have momentum. I talked to a housing group that said they did want it fixed, but there was such good stuff in the bill that they liked that they were happy for it to proceed.

35:34Joshua Johnson:Well, the history of the Congress is bipartisan bills passed in the House bashing up against the rocks in the Senate. How about we switch it up? Bipartisan bills in the Senate bashing up against the rocks in the House. Only Congress nerds will like that joke. Thanks for laughing, Josh Wingrove. One last note on Congress, by the way, lawmakers, they're still setting records, especially Republicans, not by passing bills on housing or anything else, not by doing oversight, but by not being lawmakers anymore. As of this week, one in eight members of Congress say they plan to quit after this cycle.

36:06Joshua Johnson:Redistricting is pushing some members out. But the real reason for most Republicans believe they're likely to lose the majority in November. Only one election in the last century saw more retirements. Still, some people seem to want to get to Congress, if you can believe it. The president this week endorsed the political rival of one Republican representative from Kentucky, Thomas Massey. Now, Massey, you've seen him lately. He's an outspoken critic of the president, especially on the Epstein files. He's played a key role in getting legislation passed to reveal the Epstein files. He's gone to war with the White House over it, and the president is endorsing his opponent.

36:49Jennifer F. Rubin:He's disloyal to the Republican Party. He's disloyal to the people of Kentucky. And most importantly, he is disloyal to the United States of America. And he's got to be voted out of office as soon as possible. On the other hand, Ed Galrine has my complete and total endorsement. He's a true American hero and he's a great patriot.

37:16Joshua Johnson:It's Galrine, first of all. But anyway, Josh, is the president's support of Ed Galerain against incumbent Thomas Massey strictly about the Epstein files? I think it's broader than that. Massey, I should note, is a pretty staunch conservative and kind of a hero of— Libertarian. You're right. And Senator Rand Paul, also of Kentucky, has gone to bat for him, noting recently in Bloomberg Television, for instance, that the guy Trump's endorsing had a hiatus as a Republican because of Trump. So you're talking about disloyalty. He's pivoted to the guy that literally walked out. So we'll see. Paul is saying that Massey still has a chance of winning.

37:58Joshua Johnson:It will be unclear. Many of Trump allies are pouring money and effort and time into getting rid of him. But to Alana's point from earlier, this is why we don't see a lot of pushback from Republican lawmakers. And this is why many of them are leaving. It's not a lot of fun to just be required to be a rubber stamp. And if you set one foot out of line, John Cornyn is learning this, you know, a guy that has really towed the line for it. But now Trump is really hamming and hawing over whether he wants John Cornyn in the Senate anymore. This is why so many people seek out. Right, right. This is going to be the very potentially expensive Republican primary.

38:30Joshua Johnson:Trump tried to get Massey out in the last election, too, by the way, and it didn't work. And Massey, he says to everybody, he's confident he can win. But it's going to be close. I don't think I think this is the first time Trump actually went to Massey's district and campaigned for his opponent. He also he was in Cincinnati on that trip as well. We should note Ohio is looking like a center race that is maybe going to be more competitive than Republicans want it to be with Sherrod Brown attempting to come back. Um, meanwhile, on the Epstein files, while we're talking about Massey and his role in getting files released from the Justice Department, um, key details of the story told by the 13-year-old accuser of Donald Trump were verified this week by the Post and Courier newspaper in Charleston.

39:10Joshua Johnson:Now, people will remember this story. We covered it here on 1A. This was the story of files that were withheld by the Justice Department of interview notes of a woman who said that both Epstein and Donald Trump abused her when she was 12 or 13 or 14 in the 1980s. And now Arthur Delaney, those files, some of those interview notes have been released. Others are still being withheld. But the Post and Courier this week verifies key parts of the story, the parts of the story she told the FBI, do check out. They are not the accusation, though, which is not verified. And there are some questions about this person's credibility.

39:47Joshua Johnson:She has reportedly been convicted of fraud and theft, which might be a red flag. So people should be ready for this not to pan out, even though the Trump administration did suppress this from the Epstein files, were caught red-handed, and then put three documents back in which she lays out these allegations and talks about a mysterious retaliation she believes she suffered when she got phone calls that hung up on her and was supposedly run off the road by drivers she didn't know, she thought might have been paid by Epstein, I guess. but she said Trump assaulted her and that she met Epstein at a vacation home in South Carolina, where he was not really, I don't know that we know he was there, but the Post and Courier confirmed other details about what was happening.

40:36Joshua Johnson:The context around it, her mother. Stuff about her mother, stuff about a concert that they went to that she said Epstein went to, they confirmed that that sort of concert was happening around that time. So the story is still alive. All right. A few other stories that we're following here. The Social Security Administration has launched an internal investigation into charges that a software engineer with Doge, remember Doge, accessed two highly restricted social security databases and kept at least one of them on a USB drive, on a thumb drive. The employee allegedly told a whistleblower that he planned to share a version of that data with a government contractor, a private company he was going to start working for later in 2025.

41:20Joshua Johnson:Now, the whistleblower says the incident happened in January of 2025. If the Social Security Inspector General finds that these allegations are true and that this Doge employee copied personal information of nearly every living and dead person in the United States and shared it or planned to share it, Arthur, what can the government do at this point? What would this Justice Department do at this point? You've done plenty of reporting on Doge and Social Security. Well, I don't know what they would do. This is really out there. I mean, that's obviously major criminal charges. That's a huge crime.

41:57Joshua Johnson:And this is not – I don't know if this Doge employee – you know, Doge, the Elon Musk initiative that flamed out after Trump and Elon Musk fought, partly over the Epstein files. Why would they want to protect him if there's evidence he did actually commit the biggest personal data breach in human history? One other very important story I want to make sure that we get to on Wednesday, the Trump administration appealed a case to the Supreme Court that would end temporary protected status for Haitians living in the United States. That's a group of 350 ,000 people who've lived in the country legally, many of them for decades, due to a determination by the U.S.

42:39Joshua Johnson:government that conditions in Haiti were unsafe. The State Department currently lists a travel advisory for Haiti telling U.S. residents not to travel there due to the high risk of kidnapping, civil unrest, and crime. many of these people, Haitians with TPS status, are the types of people who are living in Ohio during the last presidential campaign when the vice president led a disinformation campaign saying they were eating dogs and cats, a scurrilous lie about these immigrants. Josh, the Trump administration has asked the highest court to weigh in on its efforts to cancel TPS for other groups of people after lower courts have blocked those actions.

43:16Joshua Johnson:Based on that history, what are you expecting from the Supreme Court without predicting a ruling? Where is all this headed? I wish I knew. I wish I knew. But they have had success in this. They're sort of, you know, going on all fronts to try to curtail immigration pathways, either, you know, emergency ones or more formal ones. Whether that's success, they've had a good, decent track record with the courts. Whether that extends to this case, I think is just simply unclear right now. But the trajectory of the Trump administration's intent is very clear. They want to curtail this as much as possible.

43:50Joshua Johnson:And before we round out the hour, just a note on what it's like to travel in and out of the United States. The Department of Homeland Security suspended global entry in February due to the ongoing shutdown of DHS. A department spokesperson said that that popular program, which allows for expedited arrival into the U.S. from international travel, was operational again on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a note from security lines all across America today, employees at TSA and other staff at DHS are due to miss their first paycheck since the start of the DHS shutdown, the fight in Congress today. Today's the first day that they're supposed to not get paid.

44:34Joshua Johnson:Show up early. Show up early and give some love to TSA person on the line if you pass through an airport. Josh Wingrove, White House reporter for Bloomberg. Arthur Delaney, senior reporter for HuffPost. And Alana Shore, senior Washington editor for Semaphore. I thank you all, as usual. Up next, we'll have a new panel and the news from all around the world. We'll be right back.

45:01Jennifer F. Rubin:It's Oscar season, and we watched the nominated movies, so you don't have to. We are making some bold predictions for Hollywood's biggest night, and we may help you win your Oscars pool. Listen to Pop Culture Happy Hour in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

45:19Joshua Johnson:Welcome back. Let's get into the international edition of our weekly news roundup. The U.S. and Israel war in Iran is about to enter its third week. Uncertainty grows over when it might end with more mixed messaging from this administration. A mounting human toll. casualties in Iran are now estimated to be more than 1 ,200 people. The Pentagon says there have been 13 confirmed military deaths on the U.S. side. There are massive concerns about the long-term global economic fallout and paths for an off-ramp for the U.S., for Israel, and for Iran. All remain unclear. Elizabeth Hagedorn is with us, diplomatic correspondent for All Monitor.

46:02Joshua Johnson:Hi, Elizabeth.

46:03Jennifer F. Rubin:Hi, good to be here.

46:03Joshua Johnson:Jack Detch is here, defense reporter at Politico. As always, hi, Jack. Good to be here, Todd. And from London, David Rennie, geopolitics editor at The Economist. He writes their column, The Telegram. Hi, David. Hello. All right. We have a lot to talk about around the region and around the world, but let's start inside Iran itself. What story are you following today, Elizabeth Hagedorn? What's caught your eye?

46:27Jennifer F. Rubin:Well, I'm actually following some news out of the Pentagon that you just mentioned. They've confirmed the deaths of six more American service members. A refueling plane went down yesterday in western Iraq and what the U.S. military said was an accident. And while Iran's death toll far exceeds this, I think this is something to watch because as we continue to see U.S. service members come home in body bags, public patience with the Trump administration over this war will inevitably wear thin the longer this goes on. And we're already seeing that pressure on Trump as a result of Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, effectively, which has pushed up gas prices here in the U.S.

47:06Jennifer F. Rubin:less than eight months out from the midterms. And so Trump this week has been saying repeatedly he wants to end the war soon. As I'm sure we'll discuss, it's much easier to start a war than it is to end one.

47:17Joshua Johnson:David Rennie, what are you watching inside Iran right now?

47:21Jennifer F. Rubin:Well, actually, I've just come back from Washington. It's been one of those weeks. And talking to people there who cover Iran, think tankers who have got good contacts in Iran, they were saying they were struck by a note of nationalism, even among people who have no love for the Islamic Republic, no love at all for the regime. There is a sense, these just anecdotes, not data, but that actually the mood in Iran, the level of violence, the level of attacks is really causing a wave of, not rally around the regime reaction, but nationalist anger and indignation at the punishment that's being dealt out to Iran right now.

47:55Joshua Johnson:Many generals have warned many times since Afghanistan and Iraq and even before the bombing from the air, tends to solidify, tends to promote nationalism on the ground. It tends to increase cohesion among people, not decrease. Jack Dutch, what about you? What are you watching inside Iran? Yeah, as Elizabeth said, obviously the tragic deaths of U.S. service members, a major pressure point domestically for Trump. But within Iran, I've been looking at the U.S. targeting. At first, it was the U.S. going after economic and industrial targets. Now the U.S. making some noise. Maybe it could go after leaders as the Iranians keep making shifts.

48:31Joshua Johnson:And if that does happen, are we going to see more civilian casualties like we saw, of of course, in the tragic incident in the first days of the war at the girls' school near the IRGC base. Well, inside Iran, in his first message since becoming the new supreme leader, the new Ayatollah, Mokhjabah Khamenei said the critical Strait of Hormuz will remain essentially closed as a tool of pressure. Elizabeth Hagedorn just mentioned it. His message was read on Iranian state TV by a presenter, not by the new Ayatollah himself. The younger Khamenei reportedly survived the missile strike that killed his father, his wife, and his mother.

49:06Joshua Johnson:Iran's Revolutionary Guard closed ranks choosing continuity, familiarity, over change, and he was elected in his father's place just this past week. This morning, the Pentagon, at a press briefing, Secretary of Defense Pete Hex has said the Supreme Leader is likely injured, likely disfigured, though there's no independent reporting confirming that. Jack Detch, U.S. intelligence sources have found that the regime is no closer to collapse than it was on day one of the war. What has Ayatollah Khamenei's election shown about Iran's willingness to resist regime change during this onslaught from Israel and the United States?

49:44Joshua Johnson:It's shown a degree of resilience. I mean, for Israel, they've already made clear that Mojtahba Khamenei is probably another target, whether he's underground or above ground. Another thing Hegseth said today is these were rats going underground, cowering. I mean, very graphic language from the Secretary of Defense. But it shows they're going to be very difficult to dislodge. And you also just look at the control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran's elite military. They control a large swath of the economy, 25 to 50 percent, according to estimates. So if you think in U.S. states, maybe California, Texas, New York and Florida, it's a huge amount of the economy.

50:20Joshua Johnson:and talking to U.S. officials, they're worried about this potential game of whack-a-mole they could get stuck in, right? If Iran keeps putting another person up, Israel or the U.S. knocks them down. There's no clear effect other than to extend the American commitment. Meanwhile, we talk about the connection of this war to the global economy and the American economy. It is clear that a key Iranian war aim now is to increase pain around the Gulf and increase pain in the United States, economic pain, asymmetric warfare. Iran can't match the United States bullet for bullet or missile for missile, but they can sure raise prices around the world.

50:57Joshua Johnson:The Strait of Hormuz, as we said earlier, currently closed. The Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, earlier this week said the U.S. Navy is currently unable to escort commercial vessels through those Straits of Hormuz. Reports this week that the Iranians are mining the Strait. The Pentagon denies it, says there are no mines in the strait now, but they're watching it closely and working on a plan for the Navy to potentially escort commercial ships. That narrow waterway between Iran and Oman carries around a fifth of global crude and liquefied natural gas to the rest of the world. On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency announced the release of about 400 million barrels of crude oil from strategic reserves in response to all of this disruption.

51:43Joshua Johnson:David, step back for us. What could the skyrocketing cost of oil and gas do to both regional and global security here?

51:53Jennifer F. Rubin:So you have to look at two big factors. One is the pressure that Donald Trump is going to feel from American voters. And so it's been quite the week. I began the week in India. I was then in Washington, D.C., where you are. For two days, I'm off to China tomorrow having conversations with a lot of governments. They are focused on two things. They are focused on, is domestic public opinion in America going to make Donald Trump stop this war? That is, for many of them, their hope. So they're looking at, you know, that people far away from America are watching the gas prices in places like Iowa and Ohio.

52:22Jennifer F. Rubin:But also in the outside world, an enormous number of countries, particularly in Asia, just because of geography, they get half, more than half in some cases, their oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz, that incredibly narrow choke point that Iran controls. And so you're seeing reports out of places like Australia. The Australian government was asked, how many days of gasoline and diesel do we have? And they said, well, you know, typically last year, we had about 39 days of gasoline in the country and about 31 days of jet fuel. And prices are spiking at the pumps in Australia. South Korea, talked to a senior official from South Korea, they have very limited reserves.

52:59Jennifer F. Rubin:They are entirely dependent on imported oil and gas. Taiwan, Japan, India, you name it. These are countries that are feeling that they are collateral damage in a war of choice that they oppose.

53:11Joshua Johnson:Elizabeth Hagedorn, tell me a little bit about what your sources in diplomacy and elsewhere in national security are saying about the strait, about the potential for the strait to be mined, about escorts, about the situation. Nothing is getting through right now. And that causes, well, that causes a stroke essentially in the rest of the world.

53:28Jennifer F. Rubin:That's true. I mean, the sources in the Gulf I'm speaking with are growing increasingly frustrated and I would say even resentful of the U.S. for bringing them into this war that they never asked for. You mentioned the strait. Obviously, this is impacting them. The potential to reopen it is looking dire. There are options. Treasury Secretary Besant said the U.S. could plan for an escort once conditions allow. We saw that back in the Strait of Hormuz last in 1987 and 1988 under the Reagan administration when Iranian attacks were targeting Kuwaiti tankers. But there is a massive cost involved in setting up that kind of escort operation to protect commercial shipping.

54:15Joshua Johnson:And the Navy, as I understand it, non-expert, does not like operating in narrow waters like that. Not safe.

54:21Jennifer F. Rubin:Definitely not safe. They'd have to, you know, place destroyers at key locations near the transit point so they could, you know, track down and shoot any incoming fire, you know, what they haven't already eliminated from Iran's stockpile, in addition to destroying mines if those are in fact placed.

54:38Joshua Johnson:Well, while we talk about the war and the impact and what's going on inside Iran, of course, we talk about the preliminary report this week from the military that found the U.S. likely did strike that elementary school in Minab near the Straits of Hormuz in southern Iran. An investigation by NPR shows that the building that was struck was once part of an IRGC military base that was walled off more than 10 years ago. The AP reports the death toll from the attack now more than 165 people, most of them children. Jack, you have reporting this week that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gutted the offices that would have probed the school strike.

55:17Joshua Johnson:What did you find? Yeah, Hegseth couldn't outright eliminate the Center for Excellence for Civilian Protection and other offices at places like U.S. Central Command. But he really gutted their staff, slashed them by almost 90 percent. So you had about 200 people at the Pentagon and around combatant commands around the world that would have investigated this. That's down to about 40. The investigation is still advancing. But, you know, we'll see if CENTCOM can aid in the investigation and whether some of this will see the light of day or how much accountability there will be. Is this because of Hegseth's demonstrated history, his many public comments, the books he's written, that the old rules of engagement are stupid, that they hold the military back and that now the gloves are off for the U.S.

55:58Joshua Johnson:military? He's no fan of the rules of engagement, but just has gone after anything at the Pentagon that isn't committed to, quote unquote, lethality. And that seems like this was a casualty here, too. Well, in an interview with Axios this week, President Trump said that the war with Iran may end, quote, soon because, in his words, there's practically nothing left for the United States military to bomb in Iran. And here's the president speaking in Ohio at a campaign event on Wednesday.

56:26Jennifer F. Rubin:Well, our military is unbelievable, the job they're doing. I would say, to put it mildly, way ahead of schedule. We've knocked out their Navy, their military in all forms. We've knocked out just about everything there is, including their leadership, twice.

56:44Joshua Johnson:On the same day, the president also told reporters the military is not done hitting Iran. On Thursday in Tehran, Marzia Darabi described attacks earlier in the week that hit her apartment building as workers cleared rubble behind her.

57:01Jennifer F. Rubin:It was so painful. When I got out of the building and reached the alley, it was then that I realized the extent of damage. I heard people screaming from homes and asking for help. That was the highest point of frustration I had experienced in my life because I felt I couldn't do anything. I'll never forget this.

57:21Joshua Johnson:Elizabeth Hegatoran, can you bring a reality check to what we've been hearing from the White House, from the president, from the people around him? The president says there's nothing left to bomb. It'll end soon. Here's my off ramp. Can you see it? Then he says, no, there's more to bomb. Mixed messages from others around the White House. We heard last year that Iran's nuclear capability was, quote, obliterated last summer. Those are the president's words. What are we supposed to believe here? Right.

57:52Jennifer F. Rubin:Well, as you say, a lot of conflicting signals from Trump about both his war aims and the timeline for this operation. As for the nuclear program, Trump continues to say that it was eliminated. But actual U.S. military and intelligence assessments paint a far more mixed picture. It is certainly true that the U.S. set back Iran's nuclear program probably by several years. But Iran still has its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which experts say could be used to make at least 10 nuclear warheads if Iran were to pursue a bomb. So where does that leave us? The U.N.'s nuclear watchdog says around half of that uranium is buried deep underground at a nuclear complex outside the city of Isfahan.

58:34Jennifer F. Rubin:And also some of that material is also buried underground at a nuclear center at Natanz. Now, destroying that material would likely require major ground operations in at least those two sites, which Trump has acknowledged and so far not ruled out.

58:50Joshua Johnson:Senators coming out of classified briefings this week said that they heard that destroying nuclear capability is not a state-at-war aim of the administration in these briefings. Pete Hegseth has talked about destroying the conventional umbrella that would allow it to develop behind the scenes.

59:07Jennifer F. Rubin:That may be true, but then what are you left with? You are left with, you know, what I've heard referred to as an Islamic Republic 2.0, a new hardline supreme leader who may very well pursue the race to a bomb.

59:20Joshua Johnson:David Rennie, how are all these conflicting signals confusing allies and adversaries for what comes next? Can you give us a read from Europe about how leaders and diplomats there are interpreting all of this for themselves?

59:34Jennifer F. Rubin:So I wish I could tell you that governments in Europe are taking a kind of sagacious Kissingerian kind of high-level view of the strategy here. They are basically trying to avoid blowing up their relationship with Donald Trump because he has so much leverage over them for things like trade, but also for more noble things like support that America is still grudgingly giving to Ukraine, which matters to Europe a lot. So the tragedy is that in private, European governments, European officials will admit that they think this war is disastrously badly planned, that there was a good reason why previous American presidents did not go after Iran in this way, why they took the diplomatic track to try and take out the nuclear program.

1:00:11Jennifer F. Rubin:So they are appalled by what is happening and actually concerned that in many cases it's been illegal, that it's trampling international law. But they have a whole bunch of other problems when it comes to not wanting to destroy their relationship with America because for at least another 10 years, Europeans can't defend themselves against, for example, Russia without help from America. But, you know, to give you one last example of the despair here in Europe, the one thing that people are focused on in terms of Ukraine is to try and put more pressure on Vladimir Putin to realize that he can't win this war with Ukraine.

1:00:42Jennifer F. Rubin:What did we see this week? We saw President Trump's administration lifting the sanctions, albeit temporarily, on sales of Russian oil, particularly oil that's already floating around in tankers. Sales of high-priced Russian oil, more money than ever over the last year. So this is the same American government that until recently was berating countries like India for, in their words, fueling, you know, funding Vladimir Putin's war machine by buying Russian oil. And now they're saying, go ahead, buy as much Russian oil as you like. And so, you know, allies are just in total despair. But the truth is no one is willing to say this in public because Donald Trump is vengeful and Donald Trump as leader of America has extraordinary leverage.

1:01:22Joshua Johnson:The inability to tell the truth from European leaders because of leverage, and you see it here in the United States as well. Well, for now, the United States and Israel remain aligned on crippling Iran's ability to threaten Israel and its neighbors. But Israeli leaders appear willing to use the war to inflict deeper damage on the Iranian state than what what Elizabeth Hegedorn has been describing. But on the idea that Israel is the one leading this war effort, the administration is pushing back on that idea. Here's the defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, on Tuesday on Israel's attacks on Iran's oil refineries.

1:01:55Jennifer F. Rubin:Israel's been a really strong partner in this effort where they have different objectives. They've pursued them. Ultimately, we've stayed focused on ours. But what Iran has felt is the power of the world's two most powerful air forces.

1:02:09Joshua Johnson:In that particular case, those weren't our strikes or that objective, or that wasn't necessarily our objective.

1:02:17Jennifer F. Rubin:But the president has made it clear to those concerns that we're not getting pulled in any direction. We're leading. The president is leading. He's determining where we want to go, what the outcome will be, what the end state is, with a very keen eye.

1:02:30Joshua Johnson:Hex, I've had a similar message earlier today at the Pentagon, Jack Dech. Now, Israeli strikes on the oil refinery blanketed Tehran, a city of 10 million people, in toxic black smoke and acid rain. Where are Netanyahu and Trump diverging on their war aims and end goals right now? Is there daylight between the United States and Israel now? Well, I'm not one of the reporters on President Trump's speed dial rotation, which seems like the major way that he's tried to sell the war to the public, but it's hard to get the administration on one sheet of music. The White House says the objectives are destroying Iran's Navy, ballistic missiles, the missile industry.

1:03:11Joshua Johnson:Pete Hegseth has added the nuclear program to that list, as Elizabeth mentioned, and Trump himself has called for unconditional surrender. Now, Bibi's list looks like missile capabilities, preventing nuclear weapons, and regime change, which is a new one this week. And remember, for Bibi, it's really about resetting the regional security architecture ever since October 7th. That's been the motivation in Lebanon, in Gaza, elsewhere. So Israel's keen to do this, but I think you're going to see more daylight between Trump and Bibi as the war goes on, right? Because Trump's goals tend to be more economic, not security-related.

1:03:46Joshua Johnson:We've already heard the rhetoric about the oil problems at the pump. That pressure is going to continue to ramp up as this war goes on. David Rennie, it's pretty clear that the Iranians and the Gulf emirs and the Gulf leaders believe that Donald Trump is very sensitive to economic pressure, that when prices go up and consumers complain and a midterm looms, he'll find an off-ramp and back off. Jack Deitch is making the point that Netanyahu and the Israelis probably don't have the same set of goals. What's your read on the U.S.-Israeli alliance in this war and how long it lasts?

1:04:22Jennifer F. Rubin:Well, I read a column a couple of weeks ago sort of making the point that in some ways one of the shocking things at the very beginning of the war when we saw the assassination of the former supreme leader Ayatollah Khomeini, that was essentially the Israeli playbook. The Israeli playbook is that you kill your enemy's top leadership, including civilian leaders. You take out the leaders of, you know, and Israel would always say they're terrorist leaders and so that, you know, they don't deserve to be treated as heads of state or legitimate leaders. They're, you know, the heads of Hezbollah or Hamas or other leaders.

1:04:49Jennifer F. Rubin:But it is, in fact, exceptionally rare for one government to kill the head of state, head of government of another country. And for all that he's a wicked man leading a very violent and awful regime, the Ayatollah Khamenei was effectively Iran's head of state. America didn't used to do those things. It's very, very unusual to take out another head of state. That's the Israeli playbook. So there is, I think, a sense in the region that America, for whatever reason, is playing to some extent with the Israeli playbook. you're quite right to focus on the divergence between the two goals. And I think Jack is absolutely right to mention regime change.

1:05:23Jennifer F. Rubin:You know, we've seen occasionally Donald Trump, you know, off and on talking about the Iranian people rising up. We've seen Israelis, including Bibi Netanyahu, calling for the Iranian people to rise up. There is, in my conversations, a real sense of suspicion that when Israeli leaders, particularly Prime Minister Netanyahu, calls for regime change in Iran because he wants the people of Iran to breathe freely and have a of democracy, there's a great deal of sort of cynicism as to whether that's true, that actually Israel could live with a broken Iran that wasn't capable of threatening Israel, wasn't capable of funding its sort of allies and proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas.

1:05:59Jennifer F. Rubin:And so, in fact, there's a sense that a broken Iran, just kind of wounded and unable to strike beyond its own borders, would suit Israel just fine. And so there's tremendous cynicism about the degree to which, You know, when we talk about what's the endgame, I think one of the clear points of divergence is there's a sense that Israel could live with a much messier, much nastier, much less stable endgame than probably many people inside the Trump administration.

1:06:24Joshua Johnson:Well, let's move around the Gulf, the GCC, the Gulf countries. Elizabeth, you've talked about them already. Iran launched a fresh wave of drone and missile attacks on Thursday. They hit fuel tanks in Bahrain. Saudi Arabia intercepted drones targeting oil fields. Kuwait reported hits on its energy infrastructure. The White House says the administration is in close contact with its Middle East partners and that Iran's attacks on neighbors underscore why they had to eliminate this threat in the first place. You've talked a little bit about how the GCC, the Gulf partner countries around the Persian Gulf, are feeling about getting dragged into this conflict.

1:07:01Joshua Johnson:What are the biggest threats that Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait are facing right now or perhaps will face when the war concludes.

1:07:09Jennifer F. Rubin:I mean, as you mentioned, they are facing direct hits from Iran on their critical energy infrastructure. And I think the more protracted this war is, the more likely we are to see continued export disruptions, tourism revenues decline in those countries, GDP downgrades of Gulf economies that have long prided themselves on economic resilience and even potential domestic unrest. And, you know, again, many of these countries were lobbying against a war, telling the Trump administration instead to cut a deal with Iran, which, you know, was a possibility, although, you know, a remote one just a few weeks ago.

1:07:47Jennifer F. Rubin:And so, yeah, I think it is safe to assume that behind closed doors, there is a lot of resentment toward the Trump administration right now, even as we are seeing more measured public statements from these countries.

1:08:00Joshua Johnson:Stability and peace for investment, for fun, for luxury hotels. I mean, that's the whole selling point in Dubai. Stability, safety. That's the whole thing. They're losing it.

1:08:11Jennifer F. Rubin:Absolutely. And, you know, I think, again, we will see mounting pressure on the U.S. from GCC states like Saudi Arabia, like the UAE, like Qatar, driven by these hits on their infrastructure.

1:08:23Joshua Johnson:Well, this week, Israel said it's preparing to expand an incursion into southern Lebanon, another front in this war to fight Hezbollah militants backed by Iran there. Hezbollah started firing rockets into northern Israel when the war in Iran began. Lebanese authorities have called for a ceasefire and offered to directly negotiate with Israel. But they've acknowledged their failure to disarm Hezbollah since the November 2024 truce. The United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres has called for a ceasefire as well. Jack Detch, Lebanon has been in a diplomatic scramble, but has the Israeli government shown any interest in negotiating any end on that front of the war?

1:09:06Joshua Johnson:No. Israel hasn't shown an interest in doing it because they don't believe the central government of Lebanon, which has been weakened over the years, has an ability to control Hezbollah. They see Hezbollah continuing to be an irritant, firing rockets into Israel. they're basically saying to the Lebanese, look, if you can't clean up this mess, we're going to do it for you. And until then, there are not going to be any talks. Well, on Wednesday, Iran's president, Massoud Pajeshkin, laid out three conditions to end the war from the Iranian perspective, the recognition of his country's rights, reparation payments, and guarantees against future aggression, presumably from Israel and the United States.

1:09:46Joshua Johnson:And it's unlikely that, of course, Donald Trump is going to accept any of these terms. We can put that aside. But the whole world seems to be waiting for what we've already mentioned, that off-ramp, the moment when Donald Trump declares victory and walks away. What would that off-ramp look like? And how are different actors trying to engineer it now, David?

1:10:10Jennifer F. Rubin:Complicated for what would be a good off-ramp for some of those actors. So, you know, So you're quite right to focus on the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, those Gulf monarchies that sit just across the other side of that narrow band of water from Iran. And as you say, many of them, like the UAE, cities like Dubai, their whole pitch was that they were essentially kind of Singapore with camels, right? They were super stable capitalist hubs where you could live a glorious life and pay low taxes and invest. They're going to be AI data centers. You know, all of that goes wrong when you look on a map and see how close they are to Iran.

1:10:44Jennifer F. Rubin:But what's really fascinating, I commend to anyone who has an Economist subscription, which obviously is all of your listeners. There's an excellent piece by my colleague who is based in the Gulf, writing about the real dilemma that these Gulf monarchies face right now, which is, as you heard, Elizabeth was right, that all six of the GCC countries told the Americans not to do this. But in private, according to our reporting, they have now been saying, OK, now you've started it. you had better finish this properly because what they do not want, to your point about what's a good off-ramp, they don't want a wounded, angry, hardline Iran that has been damaged but not actually controlled, that continues to have the ability to put the Strait of Hormuz in threat, continues to be able to pound those Gulf monarchies with weapons that undercut their entire prosperity agenda.

1:11:31Jennifer F. Rubin:And so there is a real sense that they want it to end really soon, but not so abruptly that it just leaves an unfinished, wounded Iran to cause more mischief.

1:11:42Joshua Johnson:We talk about leverage. David Rennie mentions the leverage that keeps them quiet, Jack Deitch, in criticizing Donald Trump. Asymmetric warfare, we've mentioned that, but Iran appears to believe that it has a measure of leverage over Donald Trump too. Yes, they're under fire, but that economic pain and political pain will before long convince him to pick up his arms and go home. Quick insight into what the Iranians might be thinking today. Gas prices are up 20 percent. Gas is$3.63 a gallon in the U.S. Air defense magazines are getting limited in the Gulf. The Iranians are looking at those numbers and saying, let's test the time limits and the patience of Donald Trump.

1:12:20Joshua Johnson:Can the Iranians still test it with their cheap drone strategy? Iranian drones cost$30 ,000. It costs a couple million to shoot them down. Is that dynamic still at play? $4 million to shoot down a$20 ,000 Iranian drone. They'll try and play that game all day. And so they think that time is on their side, even though they're much weaker. What do they say? You have the clock. We have the time, right? Isn't that the same? You have the watches. We have the time from Afghanistan. That's it. And speaking of time, for more than four years, nearly every Friday here on the Roundup, we've talked about Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

1:12:56Joshua Johnson:Now there's a big new influence on that war, Russia's ability to sell oil at top dollar. thanks to the war in Iran and thanks to the relaxing of U.S. sanctions against Vladimir Putin's Russia and its oil. The AP reports that Russia's daily revenue from oil sales is on average 14 % higher this month than last month. Now, we also know that the United States is shooting Tomahawk missiles at Iran, the exact weapon Ukraine has long wanted in its arsenal against Russia. Meanwhile, Ukraine has said it has anti-drone expertise that it can share with the United States for its war in the Persian Gulf. David Rennie, can you talk a little bit more about how these two conflicts are starting to affect one another?

1:13:43Jennifer F. Rubin:Yeah, so Europeans are now scrambling to work out what has happened. Their plan to try and choke off the supply of oil revenues to Vladimir Putin's war machine. The Europeans are still weeding themselves off their final oil purchases from Russia, but they see it as absolutely integral to trying to convince Vladimir Putin that he can't win this war, that he needs to tell it off. And now we have the Americans. So for the moment, we should say it's not a full green light to buying any Russian oil you like. It's that there's a lot of Russian oil sitting on tankers currently on the sea, and there's a one-month waiver for all countries to buy that oil.

1:14:17Jennifer F. Rubin:And so that is a shock for the Europeans. The flip side, if you want to know, you know, one of the most iconic kind of things I've read today in terms of this is a 2026 news story was the Saudi state-owned oil company Aramco reportedly signing a deal with Ukrainian weapons startups to buy drones that can target those Iranian Shahed drones that are now coming into the Gulf, which of course, those are the same design of drones, originally Iranian, then the Iranians gave the designs to the Russians that have been pounding Ukraine for over a year now. The Ukrainians have the world's best counter-drone weaponry, and they are offering to sell it to the Saudis.

1:14:54Jennifer F. Rubin:And so you now see the two conflicts joining up. And I think the Ukrainians very cleverly seeing an opportunity to demonstrate that, contrary to what Donald Trump likes to say, Ukraine still has some cards to play.

1:15:06Joshua Johnson:Famous line in the Oval Office you're referring to when Donald Trump confronted Volodymyr Zelensky, David Renny, and told him he had no cards to play. Turns out, events have revealed that's not true.

1:15:16Jennifer F. Rubin:Yeah, when a Shahad drone is heading your way, and Ukraine is the only country that knows how to stop it, then you have some cards to play. And to Jack's point about, you know, the Ukrainian drones are also cheap. It's not shooting down a$30 ,000 Shahed with a$2 million weapon. These are very clever weaponry. And Ukraine has these startups founded in basements, you know, in bunkers in Ukraine that know how to stop these things.

1:15:38Joshua Johnson:Meanwhile, President Trump had a call on Monday with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Ukraine and on the Middle East.

1:15:46Jennifer F. Rubin:Look, there's tremendous hatred between President Putin and President Zelensky. They can't seem to get it together. But I think it was a positive call on that subject. And we obviously talked then about the Middle East. And he wants to be helpful. I said, you could be more helpful by getting the Ukraine-Russia war over with. That would be more helpful. But we had a very good talk. And he wants to be very constructive.

1:16:12Joshua Johnson:The president says Vladimir Putin wants to be helpful and that he wants to be constructive. Putin later pledged his unwavering support. That's a quote for Tehran. At the White House on Tuesday, Karen Travers from ABC News asked White House Press Secretary Carolyn Levitt how Putin planned to be helpful and if the president pushed Putin on reports that Russia is sharing intelligence with Iran.

1:16:37Jennifer F. Rubin:The president and his special envoy, Witkoff, have both said that, of course, they've sent a message to Russia that if that was taking place, it's not something they would be happy with, and they hope that it is not taking place.

1:16:49Joshua Johnson:Jack Detch, what do we know about this situation? So the Russians apparently have provided intel to the Iranians to help target their strikes, and that's probably the reason why the U.S. is down two exquisite air defense radars in the region, one of them in Qatar, which is helping the U.S. shoot down some of these Iranian Shah heads and other projectiles which are flying their way. You don't do those types of things if you're Iran without exquisite targeting capabilities like the kind that the Russians have, like the kind the Russians use against the Ukrainian energy grid. So that's a sign that the Russians kind of playing both sides, talking out of both sides of their mouths.

1:17:29Joshua Johnson:And it's interesting to see, we still see Donald Trump expressing impatience with Zelensky. He was telling Politico earlier this week, Zelensky has to get on the ball, has to get a deal done. He said he thinks Putin's ready to make a deal. So it seems like the reading that's coming from the White House still is that Putin's ready to go. Zelensky's stalling, which seems quite interesting. It seems sort of an opposite of what we're seeing in terms of the facts on the ground and in the talks. Jack, it's one thing for the president to take a putatively pro-Russian stance when Ukrainian troops are in harm's way.

1:18:03Joshua Johnson:When American troops are in harm's way in the Gulf and dying, and there are credible reports that Russia is aiding the enemy and the president doesn't publicly say, knock it off or else. How are we supposed to interpret that in light of everything else you're talking about? I think it shows the degree of trust that's developed between the Trump team, between Steve Whitcoff and some factions of the Kremlin. I mean, you just see the tightness of that relationship. Whitcoff consistently saying - But what is trust if they're helping Iran target Americans? What does trust mean? I mean, it's the relationship between these two people.

1:18:36Joshua Johnson:again. I mean, it's, you know, it sort of defies gravity here, given what's going on in the region. But you look at this relationship and seemingly it hasn't been affected by what's going on by this significant aid that Russia appears to be providing to the Iranians. We got this email from Jay in Virginia, who says the substantially higher oil prices buoying Russia's flagging economy, helping finance its expensive war with Ukraine. Ukraine also loses by the fact that the U.S. is using its Patriot missiles in the Iran war, making them less available for Ukraine to fend off Russian attacks. For a president who claims to be pro-peace, Trump sure seems to be pro-war.

1:19:14Joshua Johnson:Jay, thanks for that comment from Virginia. Meanwhile, the United States is allowing India to buy Russian oil again, as David Rennie mentioned after lifting sanctions last week. Under pressure from President Trump, the world's most populous country has started relying on oil from the Middle East, but is now pivoting back to Russia. David Arani, what's the impact? Talk a little bit more about the impact on India and this shift in the global oil supply.

1:19:41Jennifer F. Rubin:So India is in a real bind. I was just in India for the whole of last week talking to people in the government, talking to former government officials. India has 25 days. This is not a public figure, but I was told India has 25 days of oil reserves. They actually have room to store 75 days, but they didn't fill it up because it was too expensive. So they run out of oil pretty quickly. They get half of their oil, just over half of their natural gas comes through the Strait of Hormuz. So they are exceedingly dependent on that Gulf supplies. They're also dependent on its planting season and fertilizer.

1:20:12Jennifer F. Rubin:A lot of fertilizer is made from natural gas. A lot of it comes from countries like Saudi Arabia. If that doesn't arrive in time, then the harvest is not going to be good this year. That's a food security issue for them. So as you're right, They are now turning back to buying more oil from Russia. Now, we should say, to be strict, the Russians have been supplying a lot of oil to India, and India has been refining it because it was extremely profitable. It's not only before this war. You know, India was making a lot of money. They have a lot of refineries. They have refineries that can cope with high sulfur, Russian oil.

1:20:43Jennifer F. Rubin:They're kind of four-wheel drive type refineries that can make money under a lot of different circumstances. So this was also a money-making deal for them. But there is a real fear for the Indians about the geopolitics of this. And if you want to think about just how complex this world is, so you're right, the Indians now have been allowed to buy Russian oil again for 30 days. But they're also acutely concerned about their giant and not very friendly neighbor, China, which also is going to have to buy more and more Russian oil because it can't get oil from the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz.

1:21:11Jennifer F. Rubin:And one of the things that frightens officials in India is that if China becomes the biggest buyer, or even bigger buyer of Russian oil, then Russia is going to be utterly dependent on China, the same Russia that sells vital arms and supplies to the Indian military. So you then think forward to an India-China border wall of the sorts we've seen in recent years. Their nightmare scenario is that when the Indians need those Russian spare supplies for their weapons, the Chinese say to the Russians, uh-uh, no, we are your biggest buyer of oil. don't you supply the Indian military with those spare parts.

1:21:45Jennifer F. Rubin:That's the nightmare scenario for the Indians. So there is just, you know, it's like someone came in and kicked over a kind of game of risk. There are just pieces flying in every direction in terms of the disruption being caused by this war in the Gulf.

1:21:59Joshua Johnson:Well, we'll wrap up our discussion for this week. There'll be much more to come on the war around the Gulf. I'll give the last word on this topic to Matt, who wrote us to say, The IRGC has effectively been at war with the United States and our allies since its founding after the 1979 revolution through proxy attacks, terrorism, and hostility. This is not a new development. Gulf states are largely supporting U.S. and Israeli actions against this threat despite Iranian retaliation strikes on their territory. This conflict stems from Iran's longstanding aggression and nuclear ambitions, not from Trump, quote, dragging the world into war.

1:22:38Joshua Johnson:We'll leave that comment there. Matt, thank you for reaching out to us. I want to talk about another key place in the region, of course, that's Gaza, where Israeli strikes continue despite a shaky ceasefire going back to October. On Thursday, a fire erupted at a camp west of Gaza City after a strike hit tents where displaced Palestinians were sheltering. Palestinians in Gaza say the regional escalation has triggered new fears of economic collapse and hunger there. Hamas is rebuilding in Gaza, meanwhile, including police, including courts, including arms. The world's attention, Elizabeth, has been focused away from Gaza, understandably.

1:23:20Joshua Johnson:What's happening right now?

1:23:21Jennifer F. Rubin:Well, one of the immediate impacts is that Israel has resealed Gaza's border crossings. And this is just as people in Gaza were starting to see some improvement in their daily lives following that ceasefire the U.S. brokered in October. And, you know, we haven't heard a peep from the Trump-chaired Board of Peace since its first meeting in Washington last month when they unveiled an ambitious plan for rebuilding Gaza, for a peacekeeping force, and to disarm Hamas. And so we're left with major uncertainty about the next phase of this ceasefire as the Iran war continues to demand U.S. diplomatic resources and attention.

1:24:04Jennifer F. Rubin:Indonesia has threatened to quit and not send peacekeeping troops to Gaza. Talks on Hamas's disarmament have stalled. And of course, there is the concern, too, that the Gulf states aren't going to be in a position to provide the funds to rebuild Gaza as planned.

1:24:21Joshua Johnson:Well, if you're watching Hamas in Gaza and you're watching Hezbollah in Lebanon, You're also watching the Houthis in Yemen. They are all backed by Iran. They are all the proxy network that Matt mentioned in his comment just moments ago. That group has disrupted shipping in the Red Sea in the past. It's threatened to get involved if Tehran was attacked in this war. So far, they haven't done it. There's a whole lot of wait and see. Jack Detch, what can you tell us about the Houthis' role at this moment and what planners are planning for in the Red Sea? The Houthis are not involved right now, but we've seen them in this tit-for-tat missile war with the Israelis.

1:25:01Joshua Johnson:They have quite a bit of ability to develop their own drones, their own missiles. They have parts that are being shipped in from Iran as well that U.S. Central Command has tried to flag. So they could get involved. They could continue to harass shipping. They could raise prices. We haven't seen it yet, but that's something to watch for for sure as this drags on. Well, before the United States and Israel attacked Iran and sparked this war, the United States was in talks with Tehran in Geneva. We talked about them a lot here on the Roundup when those talks were still going on. U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, went to the media this week to talk about why the United States abandoned those negotiations and decided to start bombing.

1:25:43Joshua Johnson:Here's Witkoff on Fox's Hannity on Wednesday. They opened up with telling us that they had the inalienable right to enrich, to which we responded that from President Trump that we had the inalienable right to stop them from enriching. So but they opened up by challenging us. Their next statement to us was that they had 460 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium. 60 % enriched uranium would take a week, maybe 10 days at the outside, to bring up to 90 % weapons grade. So it was a clear threat. David Rennie, what do you make of that explanation from Steve Whitcoff about why the United States abandoned negotiations mid-talks and started shooting?

1:26:30Jennifer F. Rubin:So, to begin with, the argument about whether Iran has the right to enrich uranium goes back to the beginning of the nuclear standoff. This goes back to, you know, years and years of talks, beginning with the Europeans and then the Americans joining them under President Obama. The argument from the Iranians was that they don't want to build a bomb, but they are a sovereign nation and they have the right to a civilian nuclear program. And so they have the right to a rich. Now, no one believed them that it was purely for civilian nukes. They've got a lot of oil and gas, for one thing. Why do they need nuclear power, given how much trouble it's causing them?

1:26:59Jennifer F. Rubin:But there is a real concern among diplomats, particularly if you listen to, say, people like the Imani foreign minister has been briefing colleagues that he thinks that Steve Wyckoff, the special envoy misunderstood that second part of what Steve Witkoff was telling Sean Hannity there about when the Iranians mentioned that they have this highly enriched uranium, which Elizabeth mentioned at the beginning. It's sitting there. The nuclear strikes last summer took out lots and lots of the centrifuges, the enrichment facilities, but they do have 440 kilos, we think, of highly enriched uranium. The argument from Steve Witkoff is clearly that mentioning it was a threat, that they were saying, you know, you be careful because we have this dangerous stuff.

1:27:36Jennifer F. Rubin:There are voices, including reportedly the Amanis, saying, no, no, no, the Iranians were sort of suggesting that, you know, if we do a deal, then that would be the kind of thing that we would discuss with you is where to put that. Now, who knows? There is, I think, a concern among people who've been involved in these negotiations for a long time that Steve Wyckoff, whose credentials for doing this job is that he is an old friend of President Trump's and a property developer, that that is not necessarily the background that you need to be handling delicate questions of nuclear physics. Now, of course, the Trump administration would say that's the whole point.

1:28:08Jennifer F. Rubin:The pointy-headed experts, the hand-wringers, they got us into this mess. We need someone like Witkoff to sort it out. But, you know, we're not going to sort this problem out this week, I think.

1:28:17Joshua Johnson:I wasn't in the room for those talks. Nobody here was in the room for those talks. But there is an argument for experienced diplomats who don't misinterpret messages coming from other countries and misinterpret them in ways that might misinterpret and offer for a threat. And we'll leave that there for this week on The Roundup. I want to thank Elizabeth Hagedorn, diplomatic correspondent for All Monitor, Jack Detch, defense reporter at Politico, and David Rennie, geopolitics editor at The Economist. He writes the great column, The Telegram. Mike Kidd is our sound designer and engineer. Chris Castano is our digital editor.

1:28:50Joshua Johnson:Maya Garg is our acting executive producer. Alexander Bote is our acting senior managing producer. Aileen Humphreys is our senior producer and editor of 1A On Demand. And Thomas Liu produces our podcast. Special thanks to Arfi Getty for additional on-demand support this week. This program comes to you from WAMU, part of American University in Washington, distributed by NPR. I'm Todd Zwilich. This is One Ad.

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1:30:03Jennifer F. Rubin:It's Oscar season and we watched the nominated movies so you don't have to. We are making some bold predictions for Hollywood's biggest night and we may help you win your Oscars pool. Listen to Pop Culture Happy Hour in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.