Enrollment and possibility (E)

0:00Hey, it's Seth. And this is Akimbo.

0:11Recorded live on Tipi Lake in Algonquin Park on the site of the camp where I grew up Camp Arowan a place that reminds me about two words that we don't talk about enough possibility and enrollment you can watch the video of this recording at akimbo.link along with the show notes but here we go possibility is super important. Possibility is about openness and fairness and the fact that if you put in the effort, something might come of it. And as we build a culture, as we build a society, as we train our kids, one of the most important things we need to do is make it clear to people that it's possible.

0:58I talked to someone in the book business in 1990 when they published 50 ,000 books a year, they would tell you that their biggest challenge was finding great authors, finding enough great people to write great books that they could sell. Last year, a million books got published. So what happened? How did we go from 50 ,000 books to a million? Because not all of them are junk. Well, what happened was, the Kindle, What happened was an open publishing platform made it so that people realized it was possible to publish a book. iTunes and Spotify have led to an explosion of the number of people who have made music professionally or semi-professionally because they know it's possible to get their music heard.

1:53Back in the day, folks at Encyclopedia Britannica had to look long and hard to find people who were good enough to edit the encyclopedia. Wikipedia is open. 32 million people have registered with names and passwords to make minor edits to Wikipedia. It's possible to edit it. Of the 32 million, 3 ,850 have moved up high enough in the hierarchy to actually be authorized to start a page without oversight. Which leads to the second word. And the second word is the one that's missing. It's the one that's missing from so much of the marketing that people want to do. It's missing from so much of the politics we want to shape.

2:38Definitely missing from the way we do education. And that word is enrollment. Enrollment means that while it may be possible, it's hard. It's hard because you're going to need to bring grit to the table. The grit to show up and maybe be rejected. The grit to do it wrong until you do it right. The grit to discover the best way forward. And because we live in a place and a time when you're not always forced to do what you do, Enrollment means it's voluntary. It's voluntary to become a baseball fan. It's voluntary to put all the effort in to become good enough to write a book that other people want to read.

3:28And if we are unable to secure enrollment, then we're going to find ourselves with a shortage. We're going to find ourselves with a shortage of people who are able to do this work. We're able to communicate the way we need them to. So imagine a quadrant, four corners. In one corner, high possibility, high enrollment. These are areas where we know that on the other end of our effort, something good might happen, and where we know that if we put in the effort, we might be able to pull it off. Hence, we have an enormous number of people who are spending an enormous amount of time trying to win at social media, trying to win at publishing music or videos, or just getting a whole bunch of likes online.

4:20High enrollment, high possibility. There are other quadrants though. Consider the odds of becoming an NBA basketball star. High school student is more likely to be struck by lightning than they are to become an NBA basketball star. The possibility, regardless of your grit and your effort, is tiny. And yet the enrollment is huge. The reason the enrollment is huge? A couple of reasons. First of all, we make a huge deal, a great deal of hoopla, around the people who win that lottery. Second, we've built an entire infrastructure around the enrollment. The NBA hasn't done it single-handedly. We've got high school basketball, we've got college basketball, you've got the sneaker companies, you've got all of it constantly reminding people that this is something that people like us do.

5:13So we have an imbalance. Too much enrollment, not enough possibility. Two other corners. There's the corner of low possibility and low enrollment. This is, for example, the people who are training to be lava surfers. Because you don't have any chance to be a professional lava surfer. There aren't enough volcanoes where you can surf. It's too dangerous. And there's no systems in place to get you enrolled in that journey. and the last quadrant is the quadrant of high possibility low enrollment and this is probably the biggest quadrant in our lives and this is the quadrant of say being a nurse because we know that if you put in the time and you put in the emotional labor and you really dig in with care you can become a nurse but the number of people who are willing to do that isn't as big as it could be because we don't have a system in place to help enroll people who might want to go on that journey.

6:17We haven't created status around it. We haven't created enough systems to encourage people that this is the thing they want to do. Instead, we've built those enrollment systems poorly around a different kind of education, an education that's about compliance. It's about getting a grade, maybe about surviving school, maybe about going to a famous college. But those kids aren't really enrolled in that journey. They're just doing it because the system pushes them to do it. So back to where I am up here in the north woods of Ontario. There are a bunch of different kinds of summer camps, but there are two that come to mind.

6:57One model, I'll call it the American model just to characterize, is based on competition and it's based on scarcity. Everyone's going to do something, so you have to do it. And our team might beat their team, so let's go. And that's a mirror of a lot of the other things that we put kids through. Because we're not asking for you to be enrolled. Your parents sent you to this camp, and everyone at this camp is going to do this, so buck up. The other model, the model that I learned here at Camp barawan is the model of possibility because there isn't a scarcity of what you can do. If you want to get in a canoe and paddle like I've been doing for the last 20 minutes, great.

7:40Get in a canoe and paddle. On the other hand, if you want to sail, sail. If you want to run, run. If you want to make clay and fire it in the way that people did a thousand years ago, do that. You can do any of those things, but you've got to do something. That's the mantra. It's very straightforward. And if you enroll in one of those things, and the systems are all pushing you to enroll in something, then you're people like us. Then you've decided that you want to level up. Not to beat somebody else, but because you can. To be better at it than you thought you could be. And then you create a cycle.

8:22It's a cycle of you moving forward, and a cycle of mutual generosity. because as you move forward, others can move forward too. Alert listeners and readers will have already come to the conclusion that this lines up with my rant about management versus leadership. Management requires neither possibility nor enrollment. The people who work for you aren't meeting your business plan. They are simply doing their jobs. and they're doing the jobs you ask them to do because it's their job to do it. That you have authority and management is based on authority. Leadership, on the other hand, always requires enrollment because leadership, the difficult job of creating change with volunteers, people who are engaging with you to go somewhere you're not sure is going to work, needs enrollment.

9:25people who want to go where you are going and the best way to get enrollment as a leader is a to sell people on the possibility on painting a picture how things are going to be better over there and be just as important creating cultural systems that reinforce the sense of enrollment people like us are marching people like us are lining up people like us are devoted to this cause it's that cultural reinforcement that enrollment begets more enrollment that is what is missing from so many of the movements that well-meaning people seek to make who are trying to make things better but can't understand why no one else is coming along well they might not be coming along because the thing you're doing is impossible.

10:20But it's more likely they're not coming along because we haven't socialized and normalized the sense of enrolling. People like us do things like this. And so if we're unable to make the cultural change we want because people aren't signing up to be part of what we're building, people aren't engaging in the thing we're offering, maybe it's because they don't believe it's possible. Maybe they've been burned so many times before that they're hesitant. But I think it's more likely that they're not enrolled because expending energy and grit is expensive. Because enrollment means we might be disappointed.

11:08Enrollment means committing to do difficult work, to stick through the dick to show up and to show up and to show up. And if you don't have enrollment, it doesn't matter how possible it is. Because if you're just handing people possibility on a platter, maybe they'll take it. But then as soon as it gets difficult, as soon as you need them to show up again, they'll be gone. Because you just handed it to them last time. They didn't earn anything. They didn't demonstrate to themselves that they were capable of making a difference. So when I'm looking at education, when I'm looking at systems design, when I'm looking at demand creation, possibility, benefits, features, yeah, fine, you need that.

11:57That's the cost of being in the game. But what you really need is the systemic cultural approach that creates enrollment. people like us extend ourselves to do things like this. That our status in the hierarchy, that our position among the people we care about will go up. We'll go in the direction we want it to go if we enroll. Because being enrolled is the juicy part. Being enrolled is the difficult part. Being enrolled is the thing that we're gonna need to spend our effort on. Who wants to come with me? Who wants to go over here. That is at the heart of the change we seek to make. Enrollment begets more enrollment.

12:46Possibility begets more possibility. When we turn on lights for ourselves, we turn on lights for other people too. That's the heart of what I wanted to talk about. Go make a request. Hey Seth, it's Maria. Hey Seth, my name's Kyle. Greetings, Seth. This is Stephen out in Madison, in Wisconsin. Hi, Seth. Alicia from Charleston here. Hi, Seth. This is Anupam. Hi, this is Caitlin. Hi, Seth. Warm greetings from Curacao. Hey, Seth. My name is Nick Ryan from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Hey, Seth. This is Rex. Hey, Seth. Hi, this is Vasilis from Greece. Hi, this is Roberta Perry. My question is... And that completes my question.

13:25We truly love hearing from you. If you've got a question, please visit akimbo.link. That's A-K-I-M-B-O dot L-I-N-K and click the appropriate button. I'm really grateful for the questions you've been submitting this summer, each one better than the last. Here we go. Hi, Seth. This is Chris Lebeau from St. Louis. A question for you regarding the themes of kind of smallest viable audience and also kind of selecting an industry. I've heard you speak a lot about both and the idea that, of course, what we create is not for everyone. A question for you comes along the lines of, if one spots an industry where you don't necessarily have a lot of experience, a question I find I often run into is, what is your experience in this industry?

14:15And of course, the answer to that is little to none. And so I guess I'm curious how you might approach that if you've spotted an opportunity in a domain where you're not that kind of expert. And, you know, having listened to your work for a while, I wonder if the answer will be something along the lines of, you know, make work so good they can't ignore you. But I was just interested to hear your feedback on how you might approach entering a new marketplace where you are less of a known quantity, less trusted, etc. If you need knee surgery, my hunch is you'd probably like knee surgery to be done to you by a surgeon who has done knee surgery before.

14:56There are certain industries where showing up with a lack of industry experience is not really a plus. But the key way to untangle this question is to realize that not everyone wants what it is that you are bringing to a market. and trying to please everyone, the middle of the market, the people who are comfortable with the status quo, is a great way to fail. The alternative is to find someone whose priority is something new. That if, for example, you have a background in computer engineering and you come up with a new way to make shoes, maybe you sell them in quarter sizes or half sizes and you can get them in different shapes and colors.

15:45Not everyone's going to buy your shoes, but someone who's looking for something that feels new will be thrilled at the fact that you don't have a lot of experience in the shoe business. So where we go with this is simple. It's not for everyone, but it might be for someone. And your job is simply to find someone. Hi, Seth. My name's John. I'm from Boston. Loved your episode on systems thinking. I've been a systems thinker for a few years now, and getting meta, why do you think systems thinking itself hasn't been more widely adopted as a discipline or service yet? It is a great meta question about systems thinking.

16:25What is it about the system of systems thinking that makes it difficult for it to be adopted? Well, let's start with the fact that raccoons and beavers and squirrels and even dogs are not particularly good at dealing with systems thinking. The beaver up in Canada will build a dam. Why build a dam? Well, they build a dam so that they will be able to kill lots of the trees as the water rises, and they can then use that to feed their family, and at the same time, build a safe home isolated from predators like wolves, etc. But I'm guessing the beaver is not conscious of any of that. They simply build a dam.

17:12That's what they do. Cause and effect. Cause and effect is at the heart of how every species evolved. If you did something that led to you getting eaten, you didn't have descendants. And since you didn't have descendants, your habits didn't get passed on. And our habits as creatures are to do things where the cause and effect are closely related. We evolved to smoke cigarettes because smoking cigarettes gives us pleasure in the short run as well as the status hit that would have happened in the 50s or the 60s. It took a long time for people to see the system they were entering into when they got addicted to a product that was going to kill them, when they saw the long-term industrial system that was built up around making a profit from running ads, changing the culture to make it seem cool, et cetera, et cetera.

18:11Once people saw the system, most of them couldn't change. They were physically and emotionally addicted to what they were already onto. And it took even more shifts, mostly cigarette taxes, to push people to get back to the cause and effect. Yeah, I'd like to smoke, but not that much. It costs too much today. So what we're getting at here is that systems thinking is not hardwired into the way we look at the world. But as our culture moves faster, and as we are able to dig deeper into what's connected to what, if we seek to succeed, by most measures, seeing the system is critical. So no, it's not easy.

19:01And if you need to sell systems thinking to most people, you can't do it by explaining to them why systems thinking is worth it. We need to do it by bringing the long-term impacts to the short term, by moving it all up front. Because when it's up front, it goes back to being an issue of cause and effect. Most of the people who are moving to Silicon Valley to get a job for a startup aren't aware of the long-term systems impact of TCPIP, distributed computing, and the social ratchet. All they know is if they want cultural status and maybe a big pot full of money, if they want to join the party that's going on, they got to go to Silicon Valley to do it.

19:48cause and effect, not necessarily systems thinking. But our obligation is to build a cycle going forward so more and more of us understand we are in a system and we're either going to be masters of that system or pawns in it. Hi Seth, this is Nick from Campbell and I've just listened to the episode about building slack into systems and i totally agree um especially on the work front where i struggle is on the personal front um i tend to stress out if i'm trying to do something relaxing like watch a tv show uh and you've even mentioned it if you have an hour to watch tv then you clearly have an hour to be doing art.

20:37So I struggle with that. Then if I'm in the middle of doing art and prioritizing that in the evening, then have I actually built slack into my personal life? So that's my question. Thanks for this question. It's super juicy. Let's think for a second about the difference between television and listening to a record player. If you're listening to a record player, every 17 to 22 minutes, you need to stand up, turn the record over, or go through your collection and pick the next record. Left to its own devices, a record player is not going to keep you entertained 24 hours a day. Television and radio before it are different.

21:29They are a spigot. You turn them on and it keeps coming. And the question that most people have been trained to ask is not, should I turn it off now? It's, what channel should I switch to? And the idea of this always-on spigot doesn't feel like relaxation to me. It feels like receiving a new stream of distraction on a regular basis. Yeah, if you love Billions or Star Trek, turn it on, watch it, engage with it, do it with intentionality, and then be done with it. But if you're looking for what to do to build slack into your personal life, my answer is go take a walk. Take a walk. Bring your dog if you want.

22:20My answer is sit in meditation with intent, intentionally doing nothing. Not receiving marketing messages with entertainment sandwiched in between, but nothing. Because what we are able to do as sentient humans with control over what's coming in and what's coming out is we can use intent to decide to make a difference or not. and if you are able to get a better night's sleep, if you are able to clear your mind, what you will find is that new opportunities arise. And as these new opportunities arise, you will have more resources to work your way through them. I haven't had a television in my house for almost 20 years.

23:12And what I find is between that and not going to meetings, I've reserved six or seven hours a day that most people don't have. And I use some of that time to intentionally get bored, to intentionally find myself needing more stimulation. I find that a form of slack because I can use that resource when the opportunity arises. Thanks for all of your questions. We'd love to hear from you. We'll see you next time.