Anthropic's Fable Backlash, Nationalizing AI, Inflation Heats Up & California's Broken Elections

25:30Friedberg:If we go back to the Manhattan Project, we know what the answer is. Technology is fundamentally deterministic. Whatever is possible will be tried at least once. And so we've already let this thing out of the box. So this idea that all of a sudden we can manage to get it back in and we're going to let a private citizen or a set of private citizens adjudicate what and to whom is insane. I think it's the output that needs to be adjudicated in some manner. We already have product liability laws. We already have laws that make it illegal to design weapons. We already have laws against cyber espionage and cyber attacks and hacking.

26:06We have laws against creating bioweapons. I think the enforcement of those laws, the mechanism by which there can be tracking and early estimation of those uses of the technology, I'm not trying to be naive here. I recognize there have to be guardrails and there have to be stage gates put into these systems. But limiting the systems themselves is denying us both the economic opportunity, the job creation opportunity, and also the world changing opportunity that these tools can enable. So I think that we're going about it the wrong way by trying to create these gates all the way up front on the technology being available.

26:36Imagine if we did this with computers. By the way, they tried to do this with the internet, remember? And there had been efforts every time.

26:43Friedberg:Yeah, could you imagine, Freberg, if the internet worked in the following way, you would put in a URL, you did enter. And then somebody decides whether to send you to that website or a different website, China, that's the firewall in China. That's right. Or like in Google, you search for something because you want to get to ground truth. And it just decides based on who it thinks you are, what sites get ranked. And that's what we're, you're exactly right. And what's being debated today with respect to regulation on AI is exactly that manifestation that you're talking about. It's the ability to let people stage gate upfront what can and can't be seen, what you can and can't do versus manifesting a regulatory scheme that says you cannot create weapons, like, which is what we need to focus on.

27:23The thing with weapons is using the justice system and laws after somebody's used a weapon may not exactly be the best technique if you look at fertilizer bombs and this is we're getting like uh we're stretching a lot of metaphors here but okla after oklahoma city we regulated the sale of fertilizer we put ids into fertilizer it we have all kinds of back-end systems to keep people from making fertilizer bombs if you use that analogy here and he's got this ability he's selling fertilizer he's selling these cyber weapons and he's a private company it's his right to say, I have concerns. I'm just steelmaning him.

28:00It's not necessarily my opinion, but it's important we steelman it. It seems like a very simple way to protect their company from getting sued for enabling somebody who actually creates a bomb and blows some shit up. So he's got the right to do that as a private company.

28:16Friedberg:Yeah. You're bringing up an excellent example, okay? The fertilizer is a perfect example. You know what happens when you try to buy fertilizer? you have to show your ID. There is a form of KYC that happens. So the real thing is, I think that when you don't implement KYC on your own, and yet bellyache about having somebody impose guardrails that then you can shape, I think you're being very sneaky. It's tricky. You shouldn't be saying that kind of stuff. Anthropic could implement KYC tomorrow. But it does not. It could leave all of these models open. Freeberg should be able to go to Anthropic and say, I'm David Freeberg.

28:51Friedberg:Here's what I do. Here's a security bond I'm willing to post. Here's the names and addresses of all my employees. Give me Fable 5 and don't nerf me. He can't do that. Is that a technical decision or a legal decision? It's a technical decision by unpropping. But I'm fine with them making that decision because I'm a free market guy. So I'm fine with them doing it. But you know what it means? I'm not going to be a customer, which is fine. And that means there'll be other options for you. The part that you're missing is that this is a trillion dollar company that's spending potentially billions of dollars on a regulatory capture agenda, which is going to deprive you of access to those alternative models.

29:29And you've got a founder who's out there describing these risks in a very hyperbolic way. And it's very clear where their agenda is headed, which is to banning open source models. So what is your alternative going to be? We're going to be stuck with somewhere between one and three companies, maybe two. There'll be an AI monopoly or duopoly, and they're going to decide, along with some new government agency, which will be a revolving door to their companies, who has access to what capabilities. And they're going to surveil you, profile you, decide whether you deserve this. And if they think that you don't, for whatever reason, then you'll be deprived.

30:05You're 100 % right. I think that's the worst interpretation of it.

30:08Friedberg:That's the worst interpretation of their intent. It's here today. I think Sachs is right. I think Sachs is right. And I think the lack of KYC is the tell. if you if you did not have that agenda you would have implemented kyc yesterday don't i think in order to use this model you have to have an account with a credit card in it so they have some basic level that is not kyc i said some basic level of kyc they know who's using that is not even some basic level of kyc that's just a credit card and a bullshit email address anyway i'm now on the list check this out i asked it about the regulations pull this up nick i asked it about the regulations on fertilizer while you were talking and look what it said this is the latest model too oh no it switched it downgraded me from fable i just got downgraded for asking a very simple question and it told me did you see what it said in its thinking the i asked it like fertilizer bomb regulations said i'm considering the context here the user is a vc and podcaster asking about fertilizer bomb regulations which could stem from a legitimate research interest like regulatory policy, supply chain, blah, blah, blah.

31:10I can discuss the regulatory landscape. But then it dropped me down. So I'm in the database with you now. Is that right? Did it really just do that? Yeah, show it on the screen. Look what it just did. I was like, I wonder if I can get this. I didn't ask it how to make a bomb, but I was like asking it a spicy question. We were so cooked. I just proved the point. Listen, I mean, I think... It just dropped me down. I can't ask about fertilizer regulation. Oh, my Lord. And now Dario's... Oh, it's anthropic. They're here. Oh, my Lord. I really think that conservatives and libertarians are mortgaging their futures if they go along with this red capture safetyist agenda without really realizing that there's so much more to it at stake.

31:49We saw what happened during the social media wars in the early 2020s, right? The definition of safety was expanded to include things like microaggressions, safe space, psychological safety. If you basically conveyed an idea that somebody else that, you know, a marginalized person thought was hurtful, then you could be censored. Okay. You were deep person. You're right to have bank counts or to engage in payments. You get debanked. You get debanked. Your right to engage in payments or payroll can be taken away. We're headed down this path with AI, but it's going to be infinitely more powerful. We need to be vigilant, I guess would be the summation of all this.

32:28And Freeberg feels unsafe in this podcast, I think, sometimes. Well, there's, by the way, there are things you can do on the safety side. So, Freeberg, you didn't mention this, but I'd be curious to get your take. So, the major AI labs, along with lots of other signatories, sent this letter recently in support, it's called In Support of Mandatory Nucleic Acid Synthetic Screening and Record Keeping. And basically, what it says is that if you make an order to go to a lab to manufacture a sequence of synthetic DNA or RNA, they already have to check it against the database to make sure that they're not creating a bioweapon, Ebola, whatever.

33:09That is based on an agreement called the International Gene Synthesis Consortium of 2009, in which all the major labs agree to develop and implement voluntary safeguards against misuse. That makes sense to me. And now what they want to do is codify that. So they've had, you know, over 15 years to dial in the system and make it work. Almost everyone abides by it voluntarily. Now they're saying we should make it mandatory. Okay, that seems reasonable to me. So to Freeberg's point about at what stage you intervene, maybe it's not at the level of who gets to use the model, but if you try to turn it into output in the physical world.

33:49And by the way, a lot of the oligosynthesis company, the companies that make these nucleic acid sequences, when you order RNA or you order DNA to use in your lab for some sort of experiment, which every lab in the world does, all those CEOs have also signed on to this letter saying that they'd like to codify it. Because of all the fear mongering that's going on, there's already been this effort for years now, for a number of years to ensure that this sort of thing doesn't happen. But they're just basically underlining it and highlighting like, hey, we can automate this, we can make it part of a regulated or legislative process, whatever you guys want, because we're already comfortable doing it.

34:25And it's a good place to put a safeguard because they've made it fast, they've made it efficient and doesn't hold up research. So I think these sorts of ideas can extend into these other areas of concern. But the output, I think it's quite a different place than the input than the access. We'll see how this all shakes out. But there's clearly some market structuring effort underway as we're talking about this. Right. But I think what it points to is that there's multiple places where you can intervene and put guardrails on. It doesn't have to be in this very crude way of you ask fable about mitochondria or cancer and GLP-1s, which just seems like an incredibly broad restriction.

35:06There are places further down where you could basically intervene. And that would pose less of a risk to freedom of speech and just gatekeeping who's going to have access to these capabilities. Who gets to watch the Watchmen? Who put Dario in charge of all this, I think is a very valid question and we should be vigilant about it. Freeberg, do you think the days of that ARC model are numbered because it's open source? Why not? Everyone's copied it. So everyone's got a copy of them. Like these models exist. And this is a big part that I think people need to understand. The idea that you can quote regulate or downscale or turn off AI is not a realistic idea.

35:42the models have been put out in the world. It's like publishing a book. Once the book has been printed, anyone can use their own Xerox machine at home to make copies of it and use it. So we have crossed the Rubicon in terms of the potential of language models. The models that are open source are already fully available, fully published, and anyone can access and use them. And then people can take them and they can evolve them and they can use their own data. it's out there you can't stop that capability which is going to be extraordinarily beneficial for the world so we really do have to kind of rethink how we're planning to step in and ensure that nefarious negative disemployment all the things that we're worried about are addressed downstream from the technology capability you can't just turn off the internet and you can't just turn off the typewriter and you can't turn off the gutenberg press the horses have left the bomb obviously yeah and if anybody wants to create an open source frontier model company i'll seed invest in it i'll i mean this is something we need more of so a couple of you folks want to defect and start one let's do it i just i just got downgraded again check this out i just asked it about um did you really you got downgraded again two in a row um so i think it knows who you are jakel i think it does i was like hey how do i how do i break in to madison square god has any civilian ever been arrested or caught attempting to build a nuclear bomb is what i asked it then it gave me a reasonable answer then i asked it a follow-up question what compound what components do you need to build a nuclear bomb and what are the restrictions on those something a journalist might ask and uh boop switch to opus 4.8 sorry fable 5 has safety measures that flag messages on most cyber wow look at here's the detail cyber security or biology topics.

37:30They may flag safe, normal content as well. These measures let us bring you mythos-level capability in other areas sooner, and we're working to refine them, send feedback, learn more. Interesting. This is going to chase people off of this platform. I'm telling you, we are going to downgrade our use because of these blockages, and we're going to switch to other models. It's a simple manifestation of the market. This is what we're going to end up doing. For now, because those other models are going to get banned as being unsafe and reckless. Yeah, it's definitely something we have to flag, I guess, adjacent to all of this is the public's, at least America's distrust of AI, and their concerns around wealth disparity, and their concerns about how these models were trained.

38:14Bernie Sanders wants a percentage of these AI companies. The percentage he thinks is right is 50%. Last Monday, June 1, Senator Sanders published an op-ed in the New York Times titled, AI is a public resource. You should own half of it. In it, he announced the American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund Act. Sovereign Wealth Fund, one of Trump's favorite things, a one-time 50 % tax on stock, not profits of the largest AI companies, including OpenAI, diathropic and xai the shares go into a government sovereign wealth fund and would give the public voting rights and equal board representation at each company sanders said quote the foundation of ai is our collective and human intelligence the books the songs the journalism scientific research code essentially stolen by some of the wealthiest people in the world i'll stop there It's a brilliant pitch unifying, Sachs.

39:12This pitch unifies Bernie, even Steve Bannon, people in the administration. Trump himself loves a sovereign wealth fund. He wants to own part of companies. And Bernie Sanders, I think the horseshoe theories manifest here, Sachs. What's your take on Bernie's proposal? Well, I'm not in favor of Bernie's proposal because it's a straight-up confiscation of property. And I just think that'd be a terrible precedent. You just can't do that. However, I do have sympathy for where it's coming from. And I understand and could support some sort of more voluntary means of allowing the public to participate in this.

39:50Wow. Here's the reason why. You've got all these AI CEOs telling the public that they're going to basically put half of them out of work. 50 % job loss. That's what they've been saying. Dario just did an interview where he doubled down. He's not walking it back at all. So you have, by their own acknowledgement, these AI CEOs saying that, yeah, we trained our models using all of humanity's collective knowledge that was basically assembled over hundreds or even thousands of years. Humans put it on the internet for free. Everyone made their contribution. They certainly didn't do that thinking they were going to put themselves out of work.

40:26And then these AI companies trained on all that data, and now they're basically saying they're going to use it to put Americans out of work. Now, obviously, when you repeat that message over and over again, ordinary Americans are going to say, what's in this deal for me? Yes, I need to get something out of this. So look, I think that it's a natural political reaction based on what these AI companies have said. Now, the job loss apocalypse is not a story I believe in. I don't think the data supports it. We just had a blowout jobs report in May, 172 ,000 new jobs over twice what economists were expecting.

41:02Thank you, President Trump. We're seeing hundreds of thousands of new construction jobs, 4.3 % unemployment rate at record lows, okay? Even software developers, those jobs are at a three-year high, 15 % - Thank you, Donald Trump. Thank you, President Trump. Yes, thank you, President Trump. Thank you, President Trump. So look, I don't see the job loss, okay? But the problem is this is what the AI companies themselves - Including Elon. Have taught the American public. Elon said the same thing. Elon said it, but at least what Elon said is we're going to create such abundance with AI and with robots that no one's going to need to work.

41:37Yes. And the media just picks up on that last part and they admit the first part. Yeah. Whereas Dario actually has said we're going to have very high GDP, but very high unemployment. So in other words, we're going to create economic growth, but you, the average American, are not going to participate in this. So I understand where the politics of this are coming from. And as long as that is their position, you could justify a big chunk of it. Yeah. And one last point about - It's kind of what you're saying, right? They asked for it. They asked to be regulated. They asked for their equity to be seized.

42:12And they're actually kind of offering it. Isn't Sam Altman open to this concept? Apparently so. And here's the thing. It's just one last point is OpenAI and Anthropic are quote unquote public benefit corporations. Now, I don't know exactly what that means, but it means that the corporations are not just supposed to maximize the value to shareholders, but are supposed to do things that are in the public benefit. I'll get explained to you. You're absolutely correct. If you're a regular company, you have to do what's in the best interest of shareholders. When you're a public benefit company, you have to balance the shareholders with the stated mission of the public benefit corporation.

42:47So if you say the public benefit corporation's reason to exist is to share the world's knowledge or provide free intelligence to whatever you make that statement to be, the board has to have a dual mandate for both of those things. That's what a public benefit corporation is. I think nothing could be more in the public benefit than paying down the national debt. Perfect. And maybe we should be using half of Anthropik's profit stream to be doing that. They poke the tiger. use it for that purpose than Soros maxing or surveilling and censoring Americans. I don't necessarily trust their judgment about what's in the public interest.

43:23But you think it should be opt-in. I kind of agree with you there. It can't be a confiscation, so I don't know how to structure it, but I can see the logic. Freberg, you hate. They asked for it. Hate, hate, hate. Wealth taxes, aka asset seizures, as you pointed out in our private group chat with redacted this very week what's your take on this so i think we have the ship has sailed in terms of the united states government uh providing a social safety net to its citizens we've formed the social security trust fund decades ago and tens of millions of americans depend on it for their retirement benefits and to survive it is one of the last few defined benefit programs left in America, pretty much all the rest of them are also government retirement programs.

44:16All of us private citizens and private companies have defined contribution programs. You put in$10 every week, that$10 sits in an account, it gets invested, and it grows over time. And when you retire, you see exactly how much money you individually have, as opposed to a guaranteed benefit coming out from the collective. This presents a great opportunity, and I will repeat this every couple months when another opportunity presents itself, to restructure our broken, bankrupt Social Security system. I have said it in the past. I will restate it. There is a great moment right now to take the Social Security Trust Fund, which currently has one certificate in it.

44:53It is a certificate that is a very unique U.S. Treasury certificate. The U.S. government owes the Social Security Trust Fund$4 trillion. That's all it is. It's a bond. They're only allowed to own treasuries. We should revamp that. We should change the system so that the Social Security Trust Fund can own equities. That should then turn into an account-based system. So every individual has an account rather than a benefit. And then we should use that capital to go and buy stocks. We should buy great stocks in great American companies that are going to reinvent the world. And I believe that this opportunity to build a sovereign wealth fund for the United States is actually a very smart idea.

45:35I think to Sachs' point, they should be investing, generally speaking, across the landscape of businesses, including AI. They should not be seizures. They should be investments. That capital goes into that enterprise. They earn share certificates. Those share certificates sit in the accounts of American citizens. So now everyone will be an owner in these businesses. Social security should be reformed into a sovereign wealth fund. It should be actively managed. It should make investments in AI companies, and everyone should participate that way. And I will say one more thing. There is no job loss with AI.

46:07I will say it again. I've said it 1000 times. And I will say it again, and again, and again, what I see on the ground, and what I've seen at dozens of companies, and you guys can share your experiences, including my company that I run. There are two sides to a business, there is revenue, and there's costs. On the cost side of the equation, AI can be used to reduce humans doing things that cost money, to some extent. The effect there, I would argue, is nominal. The real opportunity with AI is on the revenue side, where suddenly one engineer can do a hundred times or a thousand times what they used to be able to do, meaning you can make more products at your company, whether those are agricultural seed products, or boats and ships, or software for companies, or clothing, or what have you.

46:55Because of AI, everyone has the ability to expand their revenue base to create more products. And that is the foundation of good economic prosperity. It is called productivity. We can grow productivity in this country with AI. So where I see AI being used is on the revenue side, 100 times more than the cost side. And in that equation, people are hiring like crazy. We cannot hire enough people. I just had a review meeting with my product and engineering team two days ago. And they're like, we want to add an extra 15 headcount to our engineering squads because we have all this opportunity to do stuff that we couldn't otherwise do.

47:28So we are going to hire more people. And to Sax's point, we are seeing that show up in the jobs numbers. The idea that AI is going to destroy jobs is a Luddite idea that is being disproven every single day. And I see it on the ground. It is only a matter of time before people wake up to this and they realize that this narrative that they've all been sold is a crock of shit. So it's coming, I'm telling you. Everyone's going to realize soon that this is a boom, not a bust. So you disagree with Dario, Elon, and Sam on the jobs thing, just to be clear. And that's totally fine. You have a different take on it.

48:01I have a nuanced view on this compared to them, but they're all seeing the benefit because their businesses are growing. Dario's got his$40 billion revenue business. Why? Not because people are firing customer support reps. It's because people are creating products they've never been able to create before. Right. That's the reality of what's going on. Jason, I don't like you lumping in what Elon said with Sam and Dario, because I think all three of them have said slightly different things or different enough things. So for example, Elon is describing an end state for humanity, where the robots and AI are able to produce so much that people don't have to work if they don't want to.

48:34And there'll be a universal high income is what he said to that. I mean, it's almost utopian. And the question is, maybe that could be 100 years away, he might think it's quicker. But that to me sounds like a very far off end state. Dario said specifically, 50 % job loss for entry level knowledge workers in the next one to five years. And he said that one year ago. Yeah, it's great to clarify these. I think that's already been refuted. Sam has walked back. Sam has said that he basically, I don't think he quantified, but he said that job loss was coming. But he said more recently that he was wrong because they're not seeing that in the numbers.

49:08So these guys are not telling the same story. However, that's all the public has heard. The public has been taught that AI means job loss and there's nothing in it for them. So no wonder politicians like Bernie are saying, hey, let's take half the wealth. It's take half the wealth. A little more emphasis there. Yeah, it's I mean, and I mean, and people are also seeing headlines of companies blaming AI for the job. So this story is being told. I kind of feel like they deserve it. I'm kind of I mean, part of me wants to agree with Bernie and just say, just take their shit, bro. Yeah, no, they are asking.

49:47I'm so sick of defending these idiots. It's a stupidity tax because they've been out there teaching the public that what they do is harmful. For years, they've been saying it. Well, and I've been saying, you know, as AIs are, I'm out there saying, no, actually, this is beneficial. But the companies that are providing it are saying that they themselves are a problem. Yeah. So how am I supposed to be out there defending it? Yeah, you can't. I mean, if you're building Frankenstein or if you are, you know, baby Hitler's, you know, nanny, there's a very simple thing to do. Kill baby Hitler. If you actually believe it, go ahead and kill baby Hitler.

50:22If you're making Frankenstein, here's an idea. Stop making Frankenstein. Unplug it. You are in charge of this monster. But you're acting as if you can't stop the monster while you're building the monster. What is it, Don? Dude, it's ridiculous. I mean. It doesn't stand to logic. Last week, they published this blog saying that recursive self-improvement could end the world. Therefore, we need a pause. What did they do the previous month? They hired Andre Karpathy to run recursive self-improvement, ananthropic. They're complete hypocrites. The messaging is nuts. Yes. And I think Ben Thompson made an excellent point that one of the reasons he thinks that they put out that blog post on the pause was to justify the anti-competitive step they took this week of depriving users of the ability to research AI, machine learning, and chip design using Fable.

51:12Okay? Interesting. Look, these guys are deeply hypocritical. I don't think they can be trusted. on their own terms, they can't be trusted because what they're saying is contradictory and self indicting. And so when Bernie comes along and says, hey, let's take their shit. I mean, as a capitalist, I'm against it. But I but I kind of like understand where he's coming on the field. Jamal, wrap us up here. What are your thoughts? You said, hey, Sarvo Malthorn sounds like a pretty good idea when President Trump floated it early on. Some people even said maybe you should run it for djt for our amazing president so um what do you think should we be buying equities you and i have talked many times about superannuation funds and that that would be a better path that's kind of dovetails with what freeberg is proposing some way to get more equities less treasuries in there but what are your thoughts on this seizure and or donation of equity freeberg's idea is genius

52:03Friedberg:that's why it'll never happen so we can just put that aside but yeah theoretically it's it's genius We should move to the same system that the Canadians, the Australians have proven works at scale. So we should do it. I completely agree with David. And if we could seed it with equity, look, the thing that the president has done is he's collected quite a portfolio. And that portfolio is way up. And so if you use that as a seed of a sovereign wealth fund, you'd have a bunch of stuff in critical metals and materials. Intel. Intel. They may have Micron. There's a lot of stuff in there. AMD, they could own some SpaceX.

52:44They could have had Tesla in there. They own 10 % AMD.

52:45Friedberg:Could you add Anthropic and OpenAI? Yes. Now, there is something very important we need to observe about the economics of AI. And I think you can understand it best if you compare it to the economics of the internet. The crazy thing about the internet, the reason why the Facebooks and the Googles massively over earned for decades, is the marginal cost of production for a new user on the internet is effectively zero. The incremental search user costs nothing, the incremental social networking user costs nothing. But you're able to use them as part of a network effect to sell ads against make infinite money.

53:25Friedberg:It's like a money glitch. Okay. AI is completely different. There is a real cost for every marginal user. Everyone you stand up is taxing a GPU. Everyone you stand up needs electrons, everything needs memory. And so you get into this situation where there needs to be this downstream ROI. But there also needs to be all this critical infrastructure that even enables you to be on the field. That's probably the single best argument that if I were sitting in government, I would make as to why I should own a percentage of these companies. It is not dissimilar to having the first set of transportation companies that run on the interstate highway.

54:08Friedberg:And if the interstate highways were built by the federal government writ large, and now you had two companies that transported all the goods, a logical question at that time could have been, how much of that should I own? Because you're riding on my rails. And if you look at it through that lens, there is critical infrastructure and national resilience that the AI labs profoundly need, otherwise they're not in a position to be in business. Yet even still, the marginal cost of production is incredibly high. So I think that if you were going to go and take a piece of these companies, you have incredible leverage.

54:50Friedberg:You have to construct this case precisely. But if it were me running the sovereign wealth fund, yeah, I'd probably own 75 % of these companies when I was done. But that's me because I can negotiate. Yeah. And I don't think Bernie can negotiate out of a paper bag. So he'll just throw this out there and it'll go nowhere. But that is the key observation that I hope everybody listening in a position of power understands. the incremental cost of performing AI is excessive and large. That contrasts and compares to the incremental cost before AI, which was zero. Do with that information what you want.

55:26Yeah. I mean, my interpretation of that would be, yeah, it's a fixed cost business. You can add people after a certain cost. It doesn't have an incremental cost. And that's what locally run open source models would do in this instance. That's what I would take from it. here's your polymarket chances of companies going public before 2027 which is the end of this year spacex 100 anthropic 83 chance open ai 48 chance they uh since our last episode disclosed that they have privately filed so thanks to our partners what is your final thoughts on barney sanders approach of seizing the means of producing intelligence david sox in the 1 % of the 1%.

56:11What's your opinion? I think I may be okay with Bernie's idea in the event that it's a public benefit corporation that says it's going to cause massive job loss. Okay. That trained for free on humanity's knowledge, but gatekeeps and refuses to give back. Okay. Maybe. So you've come up with like a structure here of who should be seized. Maybe Shema's right. Maybe it should be 75%. I don't know. Seize it.

56:37Friedberg:I mean, all the president needs to do is call me and tap me on the shoulder. It shall be done. It shall be done. I mean, these guys are capitalist cops. I think they want to have it seized. I would run. I would run. That's like their king. I would run over. They're like, seize my equity. Take it. Oh, take my equity. Well, Bernie does have a good point, which is they train for free on all of our knowledge, but they're gatekeeping the output so that their competitors, which is a very large set of people, cannot use it. And that seems wrong. They should be forced to be open source. Force them to open source.

57:11That's the other possibility. Remember why Elon created OpenAI in the first place? He co-founded it. This was so valuable. It needed to be distributed to everyone. Yes. Yes. He was afraid that Google was going to monopolize it. And he thought that the only antidote for that was for it to be open. Yes. And I still think that instinct is completely true. It's just that it's not Google who's the gatekeeping monopolist. It's now anthropic. They're not a monopolist yet, but if they get the red capture they're looking for, they will be either a monopolist or a duopolist. It'll be a duopolist. Somebody start an open source frontier lab.

57:45Each of the four besties. There are some. No, there are some. There are many.

57:48Friedberg:There's a whole bunch of them, J.C.L. It's not the labs that's the problem, Jason. In the absence of power, this is all a moot conversation. And if you can't deliver power to hundreds and hundreds of megawatts and line of sight to gigawatts, it's all meaningless bullshit. It's all through. I don't know. I would love an open source company that was focused on running it locally. That's my dream is, you know, make the model work there. I think these guys are capitalist cucks. I think their kink is like having their equity taken and being regulated. They're just like, that's their kink. Dario's like, ooh, take my equity.

58:21Ooh, regulate me. That's it, Bernie. Take my equity. I'm such a bad boy. I can't be trusted. Regulate me, Elizabeth. Regulate me, AOC. Oh my god Oh it's so wrong sorry Come on the program anytime Daria He's in a rush to come He will never come on this pod Daria will never come on He's running We didn't get Sam but we got Sarah Fryer to come on the pod No Sam came on the pod he has to come on the pod He's like hey where am I coming on Sam can come on he's great Sam will come on the pod anytime We didn't treat him harshly at all No I think we were fair I mean, we'd spent an hour on him.

59:02Friedberg:I think Sam, to his credit, is very practical. He sees the tea leaves and he's willing to negotiate. And I think that that versus being some kind of moral absolutist will probably serve OpenAI well in the future. Yeah, it's just going to lose them all these virtue signaling principled employees to go work for Dario. That's why they go work for Dario. They're in line with their philosophies. We did mention, but everybody should go and see all of the recaps. we publish now all the interviews yeah jason from liquidity uh sarah fryer i mean we mentioned sarah fryer but she crushed it she was incredible the cfo of open ai future ceo i think was the buzz in the room i mean oh stop that stop can you stop that's what people were saying i have the right to free speech on this podcast i think look at you trying to introduce wedges and no i'm not introducing wedges i think sam would be better as chairman i think she would be the perfect ceo It seemed like a good partnership.

59:54It seems like a great partnership, I agree. Sarah was really impressive. Who else was your favorite? Zach, did you have a favorite? Did you have somebody who really crushed it? Yeah, I did. I thought Thomas LaFont crushed it with his presentation on the overview of venture capital. Yes. And he did it at Summit, I guess, a year and a half, two years ago. Two years ago, but we're going to make it yearly with him. I think we should make it an annual feature with him because it's so interesting. So good. It's so good. It's so good. It provided so much numerical detail to support a lot of things I was kind of feeling, but didn't have the data.

1:00:27To summarize it, his basic observation was in this last cycle, if a company gets to$100 billion valuation, it's more likely to 10x from there than from$10 billion to$100 billion. Well, he had data on this. Yeah, I remember the slide. And he had data on it, which is like, okay, well, that's going to really change. I remember the slide. Yeah, there it is. It's 8%. I memorized it. Yes, yes. Yeah, if you're a capital allocator, this one screamed. Look, yes, that's right. The odds of a unicorn getting to decacorn was 8%. The odds of a decacorn getting to a centicorn was about double that. 13%. 13%.

1:01:02And then the odds of it going from centicorn to a trillion dollar market cap was 31%. So double again. And I asked him, could you extrapolate this on 1 trillion getting to 10 trillion? My guess is that it would follow. and we'll see about 60 % of trillion-dollar market cap companies getting to$10 trillion in the next few years. These are called trillicorns, by the way. We call them trillicorns in the industry. So, yes. This is going to go over really well with the socialist crowd. People are going to love this. All you got to do is seize 10 % of a trillicorn and you pay off 2 % of our national debt.

1:01:38Pretty good deal, actually. All we need is 10 % of 30 trillicorns and we're debt-free. I mean, it's not as crazy as it sounds.

1:01:47Friedberg:Is it more complicated than that? Now, if you send me in, I'll get 60 % of all of it. Yes, and then we'll have a surplus of$30 billion, and we can buy Australia. We'll pay it off much sooner. We could buy Cuba. I'd buy Canada first, better skiing. You know what I would do? I would f*** with Canada. I would buy Vancouver or Toronto. Just break them up. Just buy one of the regions, and let me thank. Let me thank Thomas Keller, the French Laundry EY, who sponsored our very innovative meeting hub at Liquidity. Here are some photos of that. They're awesome. The New York Stock Exchange. They hosted the speaker dinner at the French Laundry.

1:02:25Amazing pictures. Here they are of us with Thomas Keller. And they did a great interview on site. Niagen. They hosted the Wellness Lounge, which included recovery IVs. They're the official NAD partner of the All In Pod and all of our longevity. Our new bestie, our new bestie, Jake Paul, was there. He's a really thoughtful guy, Freeberg. Jake Paul was awesome. I sat him next to Saks for dinner. Yeah, he's a great investor, by the way. Fantastic. His portfolio is awesome. He had a great team. His team came with him for the thing. Great strategy, yeah. One thing I'll say about Thomas Keller, he had a strong watch game.

1:03:00I don't know if you guys noticed that. Yes, he did. Jermon probably noticed it.

1:03:04Friedberg:Nice patek. He had Aquanaut, Green Band, Rose Gold. What was your favorite? I was trying to figure out what the complication was. I couldn't quite eyeball it. I don't know if you saw it, Shamath. I looked at it and I was like, wow, this is very elegant for Thomas Kellan. I mean, the French laundry is just transcendent. Did you have a favorite dish, a course? Was it the duck or was it the Miyazaki? The duck was excellent. The Miyazaki beef was excellent. But the tapioca pearls, I thought, was the best. Oh, oysters and pearls. That's your oysters with caviar. Sax, what was your favorite there? Do you have a favorite?

1:03:39One of the caviar-related dishes. yeah that's oysters and pearls round of golf the following day we played a nine hole scramble with

1:03:48Friedberg:everyone that was great so great how much did you gamble and who won we had a hundred dollar a hole Chris Ho, who's the chief business officer of Athena. But, you know, that motherfucker is like a plus one. So whatever. I think we lost three units. So we lost three. Yes. All right. Shout out to our other partner, Athena. Athena. Wow. Dot com. Go get a month free. All right. Whatever. I got to stop showing. Most importantly, everybody was very upset that liquidity sold out and people couldn't get in. There were like 3000 applications. It's going to sell even faster next time around. So go to allin.com slash events and get your applications in.

1:04:26If you want to come to Summit, September 13th, 14th, and 15th, Freeberg's doing some wild stuff, some wild stuff for that event. And it's going to be cool. You're losing your mind. You're now becoming very eccentric, unhinged in your production value. And Chamath, you've been very selective in your approach to the liquidity speakers and the attendees.

1:04:49Friedberg:Because liquidity is different than the Summit. The Summit is like a festival. It's a huge party. There's all this really interesting cross-sectional stuff. But liquidity is meant to be for one thing, which is the most important capital allocators in the world should have one place to convene, debate, learn, talk, build relationships. And I want people to walk out of there with relationships that they can use. And I told you this before, because capital is what shapes the things that occur in the world. So I think that we have to be extremely selective in how we curate every element of that show.

1:05:25Friedberg:It's not meant to be that you can just buy a ticket, but to just buy a ticket, which is also a very fair and rational and nice thing. The summit is a party. It's awesome. And you're gonna learn a lot and have a good time. You'll be entertained all that great stuff. All right, let's keep going. Breaking topic this morning, CPI and PPI for May came in hot. Inflation is ripping. Here we go. CPI is obviously the consumer price index that tracks inflation from the buyer side, rent, groceries, gas, healthcare, all that stuff. PPI is the producer price index that tracks inflation from the seller side.

1:06:00Wholesale goods, raw materials, yada, yada. CPI came in at 4.2 % year over year, highest since April 2023. There's your chart. PPI came in at 6.5 % year over year, highest since the end of 2022. Here's your poly market, 21 % chance inflation hits 5 % in 2026. And then an adjacent poly market chances of the Fed hiking this year at 49%. It was under 10 % before the Iran war started. By the way, European Central Bank just raised rates a quarter point on Thursday. This was their first rate hike since September 2023. What do we take from this Friedberg? It's all related to the Iran war. Yeah, that's the...

1:06:51There's definitely an energy blip from the Iran war that drove the core index up. But there's also the macro point, which is government spending out of control, inflation out of control, and fundamentally as things unravel you have rising rates so i think we should kind of expect especially with the kevin warsh fed i think we could see north of five and a half six percent overnight rates it's not unforeseeable so this is just the nature of our monetary policy and our fiscal policy with our congressional um members that vote all of our future earnings away into bullshit but here we are and and uh and a far worse that nobody expected chamath your thoughts

1:07:36Friedberg:and then i'll wrap up with you that was the most passive aggressive take i've heard in a while from he's a little upset about it yes clearly he's a little bit just so stupid to watch can you tell us how you really feel like like honestly like what else is there to say i've said it like a hundred times it's just idiotic the the core problem with wealth inequality in this country the core problem with inflation in this country the core problem all of it roots back to excess government spending. End of story. Period. Full stop. We're all talking about machinations at the edge of the network. The core of the network is overspending by the government because in order to get elected, you need someone to give you something more than you have today.

1:08:13That's how people get elected. And here we are 250 years later. I don't know if there's the will or the way to get out of it, but one of the manifestations of it will be in this late stage, higher rates and as a response to inflation. And here we are. All right, Shumaf, what's your take on this? Is Is it a transient, as we have had other presidents say? Is there an off-ramp for the Iran war? I don't know if this is above all of our pay grades, but this does seem to be a challenging moment happening right before the midterms, and consumers expected that their cost of living would go down and that they would benefit from this golden age, and it hasn't happened yet.

1:08:57Friedberg:Well, look, it's concerning. I don't think that I expected the print to be this hot. Now, what's keeping things in line, there's still a chance that we're not going to see CPI go absolutely crazy. And part of that is because China has been smoothing the energy consumption globally worldwide. And so we've kind of kept a damper on$200 a barrel oil. In fact, we're sub 100. At the same time, I think it's pulled forward a lot of more practical sources of energy production, not just in the United States, but abroad. Specifically, what I mean is solar, just because it's simple, it's passive, and you don't need a lot of permitting, and you don't need clean air permits and the like.

1:09:42Friedberg:So all of these things have been able to keep a lid on it. But if China somehow runs out of reserves, and they need to go back into the spot market to buy an extra 3 million barrels a day, there's a very big risk that oil gets into the well past 100, and maybe between 150 and 200 a barrel. that has a lot of downstream problems with respect to cpi not even because u.s energy supply but really because the inputs that oil feeds all around the world that then get absorbed by the cost that people pay for everyday things could go up so i think the ppi number should be an alarm that we use to off-ramp this around situation sooner rather than later i just unless again, because we don't know what happened in China, because none of us were there.

1:10:32Friedberg:Unless there's an understanding that the president has with Xi about how much actual supply and slack is in the Chinese system. And that may allow him to take a much longer road to get a conclusive and decisive win in Iran. But I don't know. There was supposed to be some tangible known resolutions with this China trip. We haven't heard them explicitly stated yet. What's your take on this, Sachs, the inflation print? And is there like a golden bridge to end this war in Iran? Jake, the problem is when you ask me that question, people assume that I have some sort of inside information. And I don't.

1:11:14Look, the PPI print is what it is. I largely agree with what Chamath said. The only thing I would add is that it was largely in line with expectations. That's why the market is actually up today. Normally, if there's a surprise print and inflation is high, then the market is down because the market starts pricing in the implication of higher interest rates. It's not doing that today. So it's in line with expectations. But I largely agree with what Jamas said. Yeah. All right. Well, listen, we got to get to other elections. You know, my take on it is just huge, colossal era starting this Iran war.

1:11:47And hopefully we can get out of it. The downstream effects of this are just disastrous. I'm hoping there's a quick resolution or some way to get out of it before it goes to a year or two or three. We can't be in it forever more, obviously. NASDAQ up 2.5 % today. That normally doesn't happen when there's a hot print because, again, tech stocks are the most susceptible to high interest rates. So the market at this point It seems to be pricing in a resolution, but we'll see. We'll see. Yeah. I mean, it's just, this is a, everybody knows Iran is a quagmire and really was a huge mistake. All right.

1:12:27Let's talk about the hand-wringing around vote counts in the LA mayoral primary. Instead of me reading all these details, just Freberg, I know you're hot. I think we know about it. Yeah. I think if you're on X, it's essentially your entire feed. Freeberg, what's your take? Is the election system in Los Angeles, specifically in California, corrupt? And is this election been stolen from Spencer Pratt? Or is it just... There is no election. There was no election. There is no election. Okay. So there is no spoon. Your rights to have an election are gone. You are a citizen of those who tell you who your overseers are.

1:13:17You are no longer allowed to vote for your elected representatives. They are now appointed representatives. So enjoy the appointments that have been made for you. Appointed by who? Appointed by those who have constructed the matrix. Got it. Now I understand the background. There is no spoon. Agent Smith and all the Agent Smiths are... in charge. So here's some statistics for you. In-person voting the day of the election in Los Angeles County for mayor, Spencer Pratt, 35%, Karen Bass, 29%, Nipia Raman, 26%. Mail-in ballots received before election day, 38 % for Bass, 28 % for Pratt, 20 % for Raman.

1:14:04And then all these ballots that arrive after election day, 37 % for Raman, 35 % for Bass, 19 % for Pratt. So Pratt's post-election mail-in ballots declined by one-third. So statistically, the population of people that send in their ballots late, reduced for Pratt by a third, increased for Nipia Raman by 80%, and Karen Bass, 10 % less. If you just look at the mail-in ballots before and after Election Day as a comparison. I don't know if there's a socio-political way that you can assess those statistics and assume that these are individuals casting their individual vote for who they think should be mayor of L.A.

1:14:47And Nick, if you'll just pull up the map, which I think is worth taking a look at, basically the concentration of incremental votes that Nithya Raman got came around the skid row area in Los Angeles. And look, I'm not an election denier. I'm not someone who's historically believed the idea that elections are fraud and people have stolen votes. But when you look at the basic statistics of what happened in person, mail-in before, mail-in after election day, it becomes a real statistical quagmire on how did this sort of a socio-political shift happen in such a way that it did. Now, there was a report published, Nick, if you could pull this up, by the U.S.

1:15:24House of Representatives Committee on House Administration. This was published in May of 2020. And they highlighted the 2018 California midterm elections and the challenges they saw arise in that midterm elections because of some of the legislative changes that were made. First, California Assembly Bill 1921 legalized the practice of unlimited ballot harvesting in the state. This was passed around 2018, around the midterms. What that means is that any individual in the state of California has the right to go and collect ballots from any other individuals, regardless of relationship, fill them out, and send them in.

1:16:04California, two years later, 18 months later, also passed a law that made it permanent that every person registered in the state of California would get a ballot. So tens of millions of ballots then get mailed out. Then there was another series of laws that were passed that said anyone can register to vote. You don't need to prove your citizenship. You can use a gym membership card as an example. So anyone can register to vote. There is no proof of ID when you get a ballot. There is no demonstration that the person who fills out the ballot has anything to do with the individual who's supposed to be voting that ballot.

1:16:34And it is legal for an individual to go out and collect hundreds or thousands of ballots, ship them in, and they will all qualify in these kind of mail-in ballot voting processes. So there is nothing illegal or fraudulent going on. In fact, the system is operating exactly as intended. It has been set up and structured in a way that with the right construct, you can get an individual appointed, not elected, but appointed to a particular role in government under a quote, free election in California. This is a foundational destruction of our rights to vote for people in a free democracy I feel it's been eroded slowly over time to such an extent now, and I'm not some crazy MAGA mother or whatever people want to classify me as for pointing this out.

1:17:19But you can go down this list. They are all written out in this document. Every one of these laws that were passed in California over time that in aggregate create the environment and the construction for elections to become appointments and no longer free democratic elections where the principle, very importantly, the principle should be one individual, one vote. And if you opt to not vote, your vote should not be counted. So I think that there's no fraud. I don't think there's anything. Sounds like you believe there's massive fraud. Yeah, I think this is not fraud. This is the way the laws are set up.

1:17:55Friedberg:It's not fraud. It's the way the law is set up. Okay, Sachs, you say, of course, this is fraud. This is the system of appointment. Okay, yeah, it sounds to me like you're describing fraud, but you're saying the system allows fraud. Fraud is breaking the law. Fraud is breaking the law. The law allows them to do it. If you pay people on skid row, that's not legal. That is illegal. But you are allowed to go out and get anyone to register. You're allowed to go out and collect all the ballots and the people that are doing it. As long as you're not getting paid per ballot, you're legally allowed to do it.

1:18:23Let me pause for one second. When you look at any one of these laws in isolation, you can understand that there is some altruistic intention or there can be framed to be an altruistic intention behind it. increase voter activity, give everyone the right to vote, give more people access, more channels to vote, et cetera, et cetera. And you can rationalize away how every one of these laws makes it easier and adds lubrication to the system. And now we've got a, quote, more accessible democracy for everyone. But the truth is that there is a concept in insurance called adverse selection, which is if there is a moment to exploit something, the criminals will exploit it to the extent that it will become asymmetric.

1:19:03The criminals or the do-batters, not the do-gooders, will find a way to take advantage of a hole in a system, just like hackers do, to break into a network. And that's what you believe Raman did and Spencer Pratt didn't. This set of mechanisms, this set of construction has allowed for a system that now has evolved into an appointment system, not an election system. So you believe Raman worked the system better than Spencer Pratt. She had a better cheating operation, obviously. You can see it in the chart. Just look at the number of votes. Okay, define cheating here, just so we're clear. How does it happen where Bass stays flat, and then Rahman and Pratt just switch places?

1:19:43So on election day, he's the clear number two, and then they keep counting for a week. They don't even know how many ballots they're supposed to have. I mean, none of this stuff is locked down. Okay, let me explain how the cheating works. And to Freeberg's point, it may or may not be legal. So I don't want to get sidetracked by whether the fraud is legal or illegal, but I think we all know it's crooked. And here's how it works. First of all, explain what's crooked here. I'll explain it to you. And if I misstate a fact, then let me know. So first of all, California sends out ballots to every registered voters.

1:20:16It's something like 23, 24 million people. Only nine and a half million people vote. So what happens to the other 14 million ballots? I have a friend who lives in LA. He manages apartment buildings. He says that the ballots just pile up at the mailboxes that everybody has in the buildings. There's loose ballots everywhere. They're sent to people who don't even live there anymore. He recognizes that the names, they're people who haven't lived there in years. So the voter rolls are dirty. They haven't been cleaned up in years. Then you have the issue that there's no voter ID on election day, there's no voter ID to even get registered.

1:20:54When you sign your ballot, they run it through a machine. As long as the signature matches 40%, I don't even know what 40 % means. It's like less than half accurate. The machine says it's fine. Okay. And then it doesn't even check the signature of the voter if you have a supposed witness. So the voter can just put like a little X on their signature as long as the witness says and they sign. But there's no registration of witnesses. Anybody can be a witness. There's no database of witnesses. And so the witness is put to squiggle. So what is to stop the so-called ballot harvester from going, filling out these ballots, putting a little X on the voter, putting a little squiggle on the witness, and then dumping these ballots?

1:21:41There's no chain of custody. So the risk would be they would be arrested and charged with felonies, right? Well, what is their expectation of getting caught? Gavin Newsom just signed a law making it virtually impossible to audit any of this stuff. So now, even if they thought maybe they could get caught, let's just take a look at all the other types of fraud happening in California right now that we know about. We know that there's billions of dollars in fraud in California for things like Medicaid fraud, unemployment fraud, EBT fraud, hospice fraud, fraud related to the homeless industrial complex, and on and on.

1:22:17That's all been proven. Is it really so hard to believe that some of the same groups, the same interest groups, the same NGOs would be willing to exploit these loopholes in the dirty voter rolls, in the millions of ballots that go to incorrect or nonexistent addresses, the nonexistent chain of custody, the nonexistent signature verification, the no ID not only to vote but to register, counting ballots without postmarks if received seven days later, registering thousands of ballots from homeless shelters that don't even have any beds. These are all known things. So when you say that there's no fraud, it's like, come on, there's loopholes.

1:22:57And all you got to do is look at the results and see that there's something crooked going on here. Okay. So you're in the camp that there is fraud going on because where there's smoke, there's fire. It may be legalized, but it's fraud. Okay. So you believe there's fraud? Look, when you start mailing out millions of ballots to people who don't even vote, and then you have no audit requirements, no chain of custody, no punishments, no penalties, no investigations, and there's a huge incentive to commit fraud. Well, there have been tons of investigations, both by attorney generals. In California?

1:23:30By who? I'll pull up the history of California. In California. I will say, after every election, there are tons of civil lawsuits filed. Like, obviously, Trump filed 60 of 60 when - Not in California. uh i don't know just made it impossible to do that kind of audit he decided i think that's because he was beaten so badly in a democratic state there was no reason to but i don't know why he didn't file in california but he filed 60 of these and everybody kind of does that they file these constantly and attorney generals can so in this case chamath if there's so much smoke if this statistic seems so improbable and there was the nick shirley video of going to skid row and this possibility that they were paying junkies and people who were high to vote, this would be easily catchable, actually.

1:24:17This would take a conspiracy for thousands and thousands of votes to have been swung. And that's what we're saying here. We're saying upwards of 10 ,000 votes were swung, but certainly 5 ,000.

1:24:27Friedberg:You would need a conspiracy of hundreds of people or at least dozens to do that. Good luck going to Skid Row and getting some meth addict to go on the record. I think they actually got somebody to go on the record. actually that's a that's the paradox there's a few videos of this yeah yeah no that's the crazy part about it is they uh are saying skid row people got paid two or three dollars and that somebody was found guilty of this brenda lee brown armstrong she pled guilty in 2026 of paying this system is designed to allow fraud it's this it's a design it is designed by 43 000 votes to Guys, we live in a autocracy in California where one political machine has shaped the laws so inexorably that whether it's a mayor or it's a state legislator or it's a state senator or it's the governor, it's a one-way door.

1:25:25Friedberg:There is only one party that can win. And we are slowly seeing that that party increasingly does not have the ability to govern a state this dynamic and this complicated. They've changed the rules to make sure that that monopoly is enforced. We have all tacitly approved it by supporting or voting or not saying anything. And the end result has yet to be unveiled because it's going to take another couple of decades for all of this rot to really destroy these places. The reality is the voters probably should be given a chance to have Spencer Pratt push back on what is the machine so that at a minimum, what they learn is that the machine wasn't working nearly anywhere close to the way it is intended.

1:26:14Friedberg:Instead, what will happen is two people that are in various shapes and forms pretty deeply unqualified and very similar now essentially get to give you not much of a choice at all. So I think the sad thing is Freeburg is right and Sachs is right. Freeburg is right. The laws have been shaped this way to make legal what would otherwise be an illegality. and Sachs is right which is that any rational person should look at these laws and say this is fraudulent the unfortunate situation is unless there's a some cataclysmic decision in california this is what we're stuck with it is time to vote all of these people out you can't you can't vote what do you mean how are you going to do it anyone can register and anyone can file spencer Pratt can do all kinds of lawsuits here.

1:27:12Can I answer Freebrook's question? Sure.

1:27:16Friedberg:There is one break the glass way. And I've talked to a few of these guys about what that is. How do you change the system? You must get somebody at the absolute top of the ticket elected. That person is Steve Hilton. And if that happens, there is one thing that Steve Hilton can do to start to completely changed the way that this state is run, which is instantly on day one, declare a state of emergency. If you pull on this thread, what you will find, there are lots of things you can do to clean up how California works under a state of emergency. I'll leave it at that.

1:27:57Yeah, there's some common sense here. We shouldn't send ballots out to everybody. That made sense, maybe during COVID. And if you can't be bothered to have ID, then maybe you shouldn't vote. And I don't think that there has been an election, a major election that has been swung by election fraud. The Heritage Foundation has spent many, many tens of millions of dollars on this, I understand. And they have a really great project that tracks this. People file lawsuits like Trump did, like Al Gore did. Everybody's always filing lawsuits over this. It's never enough to swing an election, but there's definitely on the margins.

1:28:37Kennedy versus Nixon, bro. Hold on. Let me finish. The mob got Kennedy elected versus Nixon. I'm talking in modern history. In modern history. That's pretty famous. That's pretty famous. Okay. Well, we can get into if that's true or not as well. Check out Lyndon Johnson's history. Lyndon Johnson only got elected to the Senate. He got a start in politics through ballot fraud. We absolutely should have voter ID. We should stop sending everybody one of these because the appearance of impropriety is the problem here. Both sides, crazy newsflash, everybody. Both sides cheat. Both sides bend the rules.

1:29:10One side does it by limiting access. The other does it by providing too much access. All these politicians, overwhelming majority of them are unethical and all they care about is getting elected and they have tons of people working for them in both parties to massage these election results. and if you get caught it is a serious penalty there has not been in modern history major elections go ahead and go to the heritage foundation they find all the nooks and crannies you keep using the word fraud like as if it's a thing but it's not i'll tell you who's at no there's fraud at the end of the day there is fraud there are people have been caught doing fraudulent things the one group that is fundamentally to blame is congress we have an opportunity, there have been opportunities to pass laws that will make it illegal for people to vote if they are not citizens, if they are not properly registered, and if they don't show up with ID.

1:30:04That is a very simple solve to this democratic electoral process. We can't have a situation where someone is legally allowed to go out and collect 100 ballots that they find sitting in the lobby of an apartment building, or for people to register to vote with a gym membership card, when fundamentally the federal government already knows if you're not paying your taxes, you're required to have a driver's license to drive a car. You have to have ID. You have to be registered in the system to do nearly anything and everything in this country as it is. So to exclude that very simple requirement from the most foundational obligation that we all have as citizens of this country is inherently wrong.

1:30:41And it needs to be addressed by Congress. And if Congress fixes it, and there are federal laws that create systems that ensure that elections are all about one person getting one vote, and they're legally allowed to vote, then this doesn't become an issue. Short of this, I worry where this goes. Because over time, the fewer people actually believe that elections are real, and I hate being on here sounding like I'm an election fear-mongering guy who's telling people that elections aren't real, but the longer this goes on, the more difficult it will be for people to actually have faith in the election.

1:31:14in the system that we're all operating within. And that's when things get ugly and it needs to be fixed. Yeah, I'm strongly agreeing. If you can't be bothered to get a driver's license or a passport, maybe you don't need to vote. Yeah. Congress can fix it and they should. Yeah. And there's, by the way, there's a ballot measure in California. If people in California want this, they can just vote for the ballot measure. You mean the voter ID ballot measure? Yeah. Yeah, that's very important, actually. Look, if that fails, it's kind of our last chance to save anything for california's last chance yeah yeah and you do sound like an your entire speech david was you sound like an election denier i don't care what you label it look the democratic party as a whole were election deniers about trump winning in 2016 they concocted the whole russiagate hoax to basically try to discredit his election of when you look at the difference between walk-in and mail-in ballots and i've seen everyone try to argue why that's so different.

1:32:09It doesn't compute for me. That's it. I'm not like trying to make up a fact. This is the fact. Look at this facts on the on the on the screen you're looking at right now. This is the difference in the data. This data tells me that something is wrong. That's it. Obviously, it's statistically impossible. I'm not trying to just fearmonger because I don't like who got elected. I don't give a what goes on in LA. In fact, I think it's better for LA if they deal with the socialist mayor for a couple years. So they come out the other side realizing they shouldn't embrace socialist principles. I think it's great for the country, actually.

1:32:38I think it's great for New York. I think it's great for Seattle. I think it's great for wherever Minnesota, wherever people want to elect socialists in this country. Let's run into it. I'm all about jumping through the socialist well. So we jump out the other side like the Latin American countries are doing now when everyone wakes up and realize how f***ed up socialism is because it denies everyone the opportunity for economic mobility. It denies everyone their individual liberties that this country was founded on. Socialism is f***ing wrong. It's broken. It doesn't work. And if you all want to go through that lesson, do it.

1:33:06Go for it. Let's do it. Let them get elected. But the numbers on that election data show me that that's not what the people wanted, that it's not very clear or evident to me that that's what people voted for. And that's where I'm like, my God, the system itself has become a system of appointment, not a system of election. And I get fired up about that personally. point. Sack, you want to add anything as we wrap here on this? Yeah. The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. This is obvious. Just look at the charts. Look at the data.

1:33:37We know something crooked happened. It's statistically impossible. The only thing we don't know is whether it was illegal fraud or legal fraud, meaning they've created so many loopholes and so much corruption in the law that what they did It is possibly legal. It is still corrupt. It is still crooked. It is ridiculous. Everyone can see it. Do not deny the evidence of your eyes and ears, even if they call you an election denier. I personally don't care. I deny it. Spencer Pratt should be in the runoff. I deny that Roman won legitimately. The statistics are the statistics, and they would scream that you should have the Attorney General of California and the federal Attorney General look into it.

1:34:19And if they catch people doing this stuff and they have caught one person and Nick Shirley went down there and you see people on skid row, you know, listen, homeless people should have the right to vote. Theoretically, why did Newsom just sign a law making audits like that even harder? Yeah, I'm not defending Newsom here. I'm saying, where's the attorney general? If there is, in fact, fraud, Trump has the ability with his hands elected attorney generals to go after this. he controls that part of uh you know our our democracy he should file and they should go figure out what happened statistically so trump president trump thank you president trump go do it go do it you got this attorney general chasing down everybody else go to this election use your powers audit it and find them like where's president trump you didn't hear my point that the the state law just made it harder for the federal government to come in and audit the voter roles.

1:35:11So yeah, he can still do it. I'm sure they will do it. I'm sure they'll do it if they can. Yeah. I mean, trust me, Trump does what he wants. If we've learned anything, he will do what he wants. And he's not doing this now. What I find amazing is that the media, instead of asking tough questions, like, how did this happen? How could the vote swing so wildly in ballots that were only found after, hold on, after election day, the media, instead of trying to demand answers and demand accountability is trying to cover up and say nothing wrong happened here it's unbelievable it's outrageous what is the best theory steelman and what's the best theory of why the media we're sitting here talking about it what's the discrepancy anybody have a steelman of why this

1:35:55Friedberg:discrepancy could have happened that's legitimate anybody if the media is hanging on to a snapshot out of the past, where people actually cared what they said. And every time that they can actually reestablish trust, they kind of don't do it. Because the people that they want to curry favor with are willing to play along. So I think what happens is the media is like, well, I have two choices, I can actually say that Spencer Pratt should have won or could have won or investigate why he didn't win. But then I'm kind of tacitly supporting Trump. And hold on a second, I'm supposed to hate Trump. So no, yeah, you know, this is completely normal, nothing to see here, everybody moves on, hoping that then they get ingratiated into the machine, but they're going to get run over and use like everybody else does, too.

1:36:47So that's what's happened. Yeah, your point is so spot on, Chamath, that like, if it's so polarized, meaning that there's two polls, that if you do question, it's almost like you were being put in the Trump, pro-Trump camp, just like the word MAGA is thrown around, like, oh, you're a MAGA guy, because you're questioning election integrity, because it has nothing to do with MAGA, it's just simple conversation about a particular topic. But if it's diametric to the other camp, you're, you know, you must be in that bad camp. And so then they don't want to be put in that camp. It's so true.

1:37:18Friedberg:I'm for mathematical and statistical literacy. And what happened here is mathematically and statistically, nobody has any possible steel man or a concept of how this could have happened. I can tell you the statistical odds that this would have happened. And it's one in a trillion. Okay. What if - So are you telling me the one in a trillion shot hit? I'm asking if there is any - I'm not. Just this one time? I'm not. I'm asking if there's anybody who steelmans this in any way. I'm asking for the integrity of the podcast. Why is it so psychologically important for you to cling to the idea - It's not.

1:37:53I'm asking a question for debate. That California elections are completely corruption free. after all the things they've clearly done to corrupt them. No voter ID. You admit, it's chock full of loopholes. You asked me why am I holding on to it. I'm not holding on to it. For the purpose of discussion and having an intellectually honest discussion, I am asking the three of you, if you've heard or if you have any theory, just for the rigorousness of the discussion, this isn't my position. Where are all the democracy protectors in the media now? They all said that they were the guardians of democracy.

1:38:27They're going to protect democracy. Where are they to ask questions? The only theory that I can think of, I'll steal a minute myself, because I think you do need to be rigorous in this discussion. You go ahead first. Yeah. The only thing I can think of is her ground game is more sophisticated because they've been at it longer than Spencer Pratt. And he didn't have a ground game that took this in since he's a non-traditional first time candidate. That's the only thing I can think of.

1:38:51Friedberg:Sophisticated, a coded word for he wasn't bribing Skid Row homeless junkies? No, he just has it. He doesn't have an election machine to collect ballots and collecting ballots is legal. That's the question. She had a better cheating operation, obviously. We're saying the same thing. We're not actually saying anything different. The Twitter commentary was that people were waiting because there are so many people that are so against Spencer Pratt, but they wanted to be sure that they voted for the right candidate, whether it's Rahman or Bass. And so the people that held their ballots the longest saw the polling data that Bass was going to win.

1:39:29That's why they all voted for Rahman last minute was to try and promote her. Gamesmanship because of the you could have two Democrats at the top of the ticket. That's right. And they didn't want Spencer Pratt to have a shot as a general. And that, by the way, you know, I mean, you saw my interview with Spencer Pratt. He said Rahman registered one hour before the deadline and she's friends with Bass. And that the whole point was to keep him from actually making it onto the general ballot. so that some of the coordination that people were making in their minds was like we got to make sure we vote for the two democrats and then they'll figure out hey let's just box him out yeah got it which is like why they all waited till the last minute to vote it for how do you coordinate something like that that that's always the question i have with these like these people are all brilliant geniuses it's it's hundreds of thousands of brilliant geniuses that there's a

1:40:16Friedberg:I mean, it's not that complicated. Bro, the ballot harvesters did it. What Freeberg said just happened. It's just that the ballot harvesters did it, not the actual voters, obviously. And ballot harvesting is legal, but it's sketchy. And maybe they, and if there are ballot harvesters, I think that Trump and the DOJ can catch these people. How the f*** is it legal that someone can go out and collect other people's ballots and fill them out and send them in? It's the craziest s*** to me. No evidence of fraud right now. Statistics don't look good. Donald J. Trump, you control the Department of Justice.

1:40:49Go investigate it.

1:40:50Friedberg:Okay, I love you guys, but I'm hungry. I gotta go. This has been an amazing episode of the All In Podcast. Bye-bye. Love you, boys. Bye-bye. We'll let your winners ride. Rain Man David Sack. And instead, we open source it to the fans, and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you, Wesley. I'm queen of kinwaf. I'm going all in. What your winners line. What your winners line. What your winners line. Besties are gone. Go 13th. That is my dog taking an hour. Is your driveway sex? Wait, no, no. Oh, man. My avatasher will meet me at play. We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy because they're all just useless.

1:41:36Friedberg:It's like this sexual tension, but they just need to release somehow. What your feet. What your feet. What? We need to get merch. These are back.