Debt Spiral or NEW Golden Age? Super Bowl Insider Trading, Booming Token Budgets, Ferrari's New EV

28:12Now, there's a bunch of other things where some people will just set up a market that they know about and that they can control that other people aren't unaware. That's not good. But unfortunately, there's no way to discern when a prediction market gets created, whether it's A or B. And so you have to decide whether it's more important that you can understand these current events faster with more accuracy or not. And I think that's where this decision has to come to. And that's what politicians need to decide and society needs to decide. All right. We're really excited that we're doing another event.

28:44Yes, a new event from your friends at All In. The besties are hosting a new conference, a retreat, a summit in wine country, May 31st through June 3rd. It's called Liquidity. This is for capital allocators and LPs and GPs. Chamath, maybe you could talk a little bit about the vision we have here for the event. There are a handful of conferences that happen every year where money is made. I'll give you a couple of examples. All the top market traders have been invited to this thing called Irosone every year, where you go in front of a large audience, present your best long or short idea. and you can be a debt trader, a credit trader.

29:31You can be an equities trader. I've done it several times. Ackman has done it. David Einhorn has done it. Cliff Robbins has done it. These are incredible places and you pay like$10 ,000 a ticket. And if you take those portfolios, they tend to do really well. Separately, there are conferences that investment banks organize that are off the record, not publicly accessible, where they ask their biggest traders to come to a room and they'll give them each a few minutes to present their best long and short ideas of public stocks. Then there are these equivalent conferences that investment banks do for private companies where the best fast-growing private companies show up and the CEOs get on stage and they give presentations.

30:12All of these things have been closed. I would like to blow that wide open. So what will we do? We will convene the best investors in public markets, the best hedge fund managers, the best private market investors, the best growth investors, the best credit investors, and the largest cohort of LPs representing trillions of dollars of capital and the CEOs of the fastest growing and most important companies in technology. And what we will do over the course of a few days is we'll have some presentations, we'll have best ideas, we'll build relationships. There may be some investments that may happen as a result of that.

30:55We're going to shut down all of the landfill. We're going to shut down the French laundry, we're going to shut down all of it. And it'll be ours for a two day playground where we will build relationships, allocate capital, and maybe make some money as a result. So you need to apply, we will make some allocations to some folks that may not otherwise get in. We'll make some allocations to emerging managers who may need to raise capital and scale up, but can show us good returns. And over time, we'll find a way to increase a lot of this and make it more and more publicly accessible. We have what we are going to essentially take all of these things that I've been a part of that have been in closed rooms.

31:36And we're going to put them together and open it up. Yeah. Well said, well said. It's going to be a wonderful event. Freeberg, anything you're excited about in terms of the event? No, I love Yonville. We're going to Yonville, so I'm looking forward to that. It's going to be great. I mean, a beautiful location, and I think there's going to be ample time for meetings, networking. J. Cal, if you're an investor, you can go to the website to... Allin.com slash events, and you can submit your application. We can't have everybody there, and this is not like a general admission type event. It is specifically for this group of people, capital allocators.

32:11So apply at the website, allin.com slash events. It's going to be wonderful. And Shamath is putting his focus on it. I can tell you because I brought him my first five ideas and he was like, no, no, no. Yes, but better. Yes. Yes. So he is engaged and he's going to make it super tight and tight. Judging. I'm being judgy. Good. I like it. I like it. All great events, all great art has some perspective behind it. and we're excited to have your sharp perspective behind this one. Liquidity, May 31st to June 3rd, allin.com slash events. Okay, let's move on to our next topic. The new CBO report is out.

32:46Freeberg, you said we are in a debt-death spiral. The congressional budget offer released its long-term budget forecast on Wednesday, February 11th. Here are the numbers. 2026 deficit is 1.9 trillion. That's nearly 6 % of GDP, much higher than the 3 % GDP target we heard from Scott Bessett on this podcast. Social Security. We talked about that before Freeberg. Trust runs out in 2032, one year earlier than previously expected. That's obviously going to trigger all kinds of discussions around austerity measures that folks will not like. The debt will now grow from$31 trillion today to$56 trillion in 2036.

33:26So it is not stopping, folks. we are looking at an average of$2.5 trillion per year from 2026 to 2036. Also, currently, we're at 120 % debt to GDP. House Committee on Budget expects it to be 135%, so slightly up in 2036. For comparison, Japan is 237, Singapore, 176, Venezuela, 164. The Greeks, 154, UK, 94. 20 years ago, our debt to GDP was but 60%. Here's a direct quote from the report. The fiscal trajectory is not sustainable. Okay. Dr. Doom. What do you think, Freiburg? This is your story, your chance to shine. Well, there's no outlook to 3 % deficit to GDP. There he is. And if you look at the assumptions, one of the key assumptions is that the short-term interest rate, which is largely how a lot of the debt is getting refinanced, is modeled to be around 3.1%.

34:30But if rates climb closer to 5%, as I mentioned in the past, just using the current debt levels, it adds another$650 billion a year of interest expense, which takes interest expense almost up to$2 trillion a year, just paying the interest on the past debt. And because we're running a deficit, that new interest expense increases the debt every year. So the debt goes up and up and up, just by adding interest on past debt. And so this becomes the death spiral that we've kind of highlighted many times. So there's nothing in this report that I think changes the outlook. It's pretty scary. I'll say that the trigger point that I'm getting more and more concerned about, if the Democrats win the midterms, and you end up with a Democrat in the White House in 2028.

35:18I think that there's a bigger problem at foot, which is all of the state and local obligations. We've talked about Social Security looks like it's going to run out of money in a few years here. And so they're going to need to print a lot more money to fund Social Security obligations. It's very unlikely they're going to make a massive cut to Social Security because no one will get elected if they did that. And no one will get elected if they promise to do that. And there's a similar problem at the state and local level, which is that there's pension obligations. We've talked about this extensively.

35:50California has nearly a trillion dollars of unfunded pension obligations to its public retirees or public employees that are going to retire. If you end up with a Democrat-controlled house and a Democrat president in 2028, you'll very likely see a federalization of that obligation, meaning that the federal government will step in to bail out or support those state and local governments, because otherwise there's going to be a real kind of economic crisis afoot. So when you add that liability coming to hit this CBO report, which doesn't include any of that in the next five to 10 years, I think that could be not just the straw that breaks the camel's back, but the concrete that breaks the camel's back.

36:34And that's the thing I'm most worried about. There is a deep connection between what's going on with the socialist movements at a city level, and now increasingly the state level, and what we should expect to happen with the US dollar, and how it relates to federal spending and federal deficits and federal debt. And these are going to be dragging each other into a bad place in the next couple of years, one way or the other. so you know that's kind of what i'm more worried about at this point it seems if it's very hard to cut spending or get congress to approve budget cuts that we need to save ourselves from this debt death spiral imagine how much worse it's going to be in the next couple of years if we have to bail out or federalize state and local debt and state and local pension obligations it's going to be really nasty so that's the thing i worry about the most yeah in my doctor dr doom happen.

37:23Yeah. And I think that that's one of the things that no one talks about at the federal level and everyone ignores it because they assume it's a state and local problem. As we've talked about, and I'll bring it up again, and I'll ask my colleague who works in the administration to think about this idea that, you know, if we can find a way to declare bankruptcy, to restructure the fiscal obligations or the pension obligations that sit at the state and local level, we may have a way out. But short of that, that's going to pile onto this federal problem. Saks, your thoughts on the CBO report and this death spiral, debt-death spiral?

37:59Well, we all agree about the problem of federal spending and the deficit and the debt, and we're all concerned about that. With respect to the CBO study, however, I'll just note that one of the key assumptions here is that CBO projects that real GDP will only grow by 2.2 % this year in 2026. That's a very low assumption given that we grew by over 4 % in Q3 last year, and the preliminary number for Q4 was over 5%. And I think all of our predictions for GDP growth this year when we did our predictions episode was 5 % plus. So 2.2 % is a pretty low number. And then they predict that it's going to slow to 1.8 % after 2026.

38:46So again, these are very meager, anemic growth assumptions. And if you believe that all of this CapEx that's being invested in AI infrastructure is going to have a payoff, then the growth rates could be a lot higher. And that ultimately, I think, is the way to get out of the debt spiral is we need strong growth. Without that, we're not going to get out of this problem. So look, I think that if you believe in growth, then the situation is not quite as dire. What would I do? Well, I mean, if I could wave a magic wand, the two key charts you want to look at are federal net outlays as a percent of GDP.

39:21This is from Fred, right? And then you want to look at federal receipts, which is tax receipts as a percent of GDP. And you just don't want those lines to be more than call it 3 % apart. I think that's what Secretary Besson said is try to reduce federal deficits to 3 % of GDP. Historically, tax receipts have bounced around 17 % and the federal net outlays have bounced around 20%. So if you get back to that, we'd be in pretty good shape. And we were. Before COVID, our federal net outlays between spending as a percent of GDP was around 20%. But then with COVID, it bounced all the way up to 30 % in 2020 because of both the function of all the stimulus, but then also the fact that the economy shrank because of COVID.

40:09And we've never quite gotten back to that magic 20 % number. Right now, it's trending around 23%. So we're doing a lot better than we did under COVID, but it's still just a few percent higher. I mean, if it was up to me, I would just freeze federal spending until the economy grew to the point where federal spending as a percent of GDP is 20%. And then you could let federal spending continue to grow as the economy grows. And we're not even talking about cuts here. We're not even talking about shrinking the size of the government. We're just talking about limiting the rate of growth until the overall size of the economy can catch up with it.

40:47But look, as we know, it's very hard to get Washington to go along with that because there is just a lot of spending pressure in Washington. One thing I will say, though, I mean, just to give some credit to the administration here, is that the level of federal employment is at the lowest level since 1966. So during President Trump's second term here, we've gone from roughly 3 million federal employees to a little bit under 2.7 million. So, you know, over 300 ,000 federal employees have been cut. I think that is a good start. I mean, you've seen - 10 % is a good start for you. By the way, I think that's really important to just pause on, just so people understand.

41:25This isn't like some hurtful thing about firing people, they lose their jobs. But when people move from the government workforce into the private workforce, they become productive. They're making things that grow the economy. And theoretically, they should also make more money. So this is positive from an economic point of view, to move the workforce from public to private. It also, to my point, historically, I think it's very important to avoid the socialist spiral, that if you have too many people employed by the government, it becomes impossible to not employ people by the government that becomes ultimately de facto socialism.

41:58So, Chamath, your thoughts here? Obviously, great thing that we're shrinking the size of the government. Those people are becoming more productive going into the private sector. That's a big win. We all agree. 10 % great job in the first year. Hey, maybe 5 % the next two or three years would be even better. But the debt continues to be a problem. Are you worried? Do you think there's a solution here? What would you do if you were running the show? I think you have to take a broader historical context to this. does debt to GDP matter? It depends on many things, but mostly I would say it doesn't matter.

42:37And it's very easy for people to get agitated about that. Now, there are things that matter when you print too much money, which is the value of the dollar, the value of exports, the cost of imports, and how to actually protect your earnings and your wealth. That's a different question. This is a historical look back from about 300 years of debt to GDP of the largest functioning economies in the world. Now, what do you see? What you see is the trend where you, if you smooth it out for wars, which by the way, has this weird effect of first escalating the debt to GDP, but then severely impacting it in a positive way.

43:19The Napoleonic War, the Fanko-Prussian War, World War II, these things all had positive effects on bringing debt to GDP once the war was over. But the general trend since 1700 to now is up and to the right. And the key observation is that it moves in unison, that these things are relative problems. So if the entire world moves in unison like this, there is an argument to be made, which is that you could end up at 300, 250, 200 % of debt to GDP. But if everybody is there, nothing really changes that much. The real question is if one country is able to decouple itself, and its economic output is so meaningfully different than everybody else's.

44:09So my first take on this whole debt to GDP thing is, I think you have to look at it together as a group. Separately, is it important to contain the debt? Absolutely. But for these other reasons, for earnings, for inflation, for all of those very practical reasons that impact your daily lived life. And what do we know there? We know that President Trump was elected on a massive mandate to secure the border on one hand, but to look at waste, fraud, and abuse on the other. And on that side, what did he do? He drafted the most important and prolific private businessman in the history of the world to be his tip of the spear.

44:49And what happened? They identified hundreds of billions of dollars, but when it came down to it and Congress had to act to solidify these cuts, they haven't done much of anything. Which is a way of saying that if the most conservative Congress in the history of the United States has not done much to solidify these cuts that were identified by the White House and Doge, then as Friedberg said, it'll only get worse if there's ever a democratic house and democratic control. So what do we have to do? I think we have to just acknowledge that if debt to GDP continually moves in unison, the music isn't up for a very long time.

45:28That's just an observation. I'm not saying it's right or wrong. It's just the observation. But you got to find ways of hedging and owning real durable assets. Because the underlying currency that is used in these economies, even on a relative basis will fluctuate wildly and just fall off of a cliff, which will mean that it will erode the value that you have created for yourself and your family. That I think is the most important takeaway from all of this, which is we probably see things like gold do much much better over time because people will be afraid about the durability of their dollar denominated resources but it will also be true for all these other denominated resources but i think debt to gdp quite honestly if i had to be a betting man will trend into the two three four five six hundred on a relative basis for all countries because i just think the governments of these countries are addicted to spending and there is no reason to stop.

46:25Safe of some other planetary species invading planet Earth. Yeah, a black swan event, yes. Yeah. There's also a question of what Fed action will do to the capacity for excess deficit spending. So if Kevin Walsh really does want to tighten the Fed's balance sheet and the Fed is effectively the first in line buyer of treasuries, meaning they are printing money to fund the government spending, and they slow down or actively slow down and stop doing that, then there is a real kind of question on what action will Congress and the administration need to take. Because what will happen, as you know, if the Fed stops buying treasuries, treasury yields will go up.

47:15And if treasury yields go up, that means the interest on the existing debt will start to go up. And if that lasts for a period of time, and you start going from three and a half to four to four and a half to 5 % on the short end of the yield curve, then it starts to become way too expensive to fund this level of deficit spending, because the interest expense will just start to climb and eat it all up. So I think like the Kevin Warsh question is, if he really is going to reduce the balance sheet, what's that going to do to rates? What's that going to ultimately force Congress, force the administration to do with spending.

47:46Jason, what do you think? You know, we are in a consumer driven economy and the employment rate in this country is absolutely fantastic. So just three quick charts here. You know, this is the number of job openings we still have, even if we burned off in 2022, from 12 million to 7 million jobs, we still have a ton of jobs available. Then if you look at our unemployment rate, it's still at historical lows for our lifetime. If you were born in 1970, this is as good as it gets. 4.456 is what it's been. It's ticking up modestly, but still lowest of our lifetimes. And then finally, the employment participation rate, number of people in our society who are working and able to work.

48:31It peaked at 68 % or so during the Clinton years. And this is still low, 62%. We still have people who could be participating. So all of these problems will be solved if more people were to participate and take those jobs why don't they take those jobs sometimes it's a geographic mismatch sometimes it is a skills mismatch but very often it is the jobs are not paying enough so if you want to give trump his flowers by closing the border you've reduced the number of people taking the jobs off the books and then Then you have the businesses are going to have to raise their minimum wage. They're going to have to raise their offering wage, which then might get the 7 % or so that are sitting on the sidelines to take their jobs.

49:19Crazy prediction. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Trump, who is obviously a populist, and I tweeted about this the other day, got almost a half million views or 400 ,000 views. What if Trump decides he's going to raise the minimum wage? Not saying I endorse this or not, but it's incredibly low at$7 an hour. Obviously, in different cities and states, it's 15 to 20. But what if Trump said we're going to add a dollar to it or$2 to it over each year of the next three? This would be incredibly popular. And it would get some of those people off the sidelines and maybe take these jobs. So just a crazy prediction there.

49:53But I think it's a possibility. And I think they're going to lose the midterms as it stands right now, it looks like. I think that's the consensus opinion. and they haven't been able to do something with this affordability. Well, I think most Americans would say if you raise the minimum wage, that that would increase affordability. You can make the counterargument it's going to just be inflationary, but I think most Americans are going to believe in that. So I wouldn't be surprised if you saw Trump take action there because he does take populist actions like this from time to time. Are you actually paying the economic literature on what raising the minimum wage does?

50:29Yes, it can increase inflation and it can raise inflation and it can lower the profitability of businesses and move stuff offshore. No, what it does is it makes it illegal to hire someone whose labor is worth less than the minimum wage. And so it is shown to create higher unemployment in those segments of the economy. It's like one of those core findings of economists. So yeah, it's true that some people will be a beneficiary of getting a higher minimum wage, but then there'll be other people who just lose their jobs. And it creates an incentive for those employers to shift more labor towards automation.

51:10So if you're already worried about those people losing their jobs to automation, that's a downside. So anyway, if the minimum wage were a panacea, and it just increased everyone's living standards without having downsides, why wouldn't you make the minimum wage$100 an hour? You know, everyone would just keep raising it infinitely. Obviously, it doesn't work because if you raise the minimum wage too much, which is to say more than the value of someone's labor, then they just get unemployed. Looking at what happened in the different cities or in Australia or other countries, they have a much higher minimum wage and they have much more happiness.

51:46Businesses and prices go up about 20%, 10 % to 20%. So in Australia, if you go to a restaurant or if you go to a Scandinavian country, things might cost 10%, 20 % more, but you have a happier population. And yes, it could lead to more automation. We got rid of cashiers because it became too expensive in New York to pay 15 to 20 bucks for a cashier. Sure. But we have really low minimum. We have very low unemployment now. And the businesses can clearly afford to pay an extra buck an hour or two bucks an hour. So there's the theoretical academic argument, which you are correct on, and I understand it fully well.

52:22And then there's the reality on the field, which is Seattle, San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, Australia, other places have a much higher minimum wage, they have higher happiness in the population. I don't actually think it will have any impact because I think it's artificially low. But that's just one man's opinion. I think it would change the game here in America. And I think it would actually do something to your concern, Freeberg, about socialism. I think that if people felt that there was a, you know, kind of a backstop against this low, low cost of labor, it might actually make people pretty stoked, you know, that they could get a higher paying hourly job.

52:57And it might take some of that edge off in the same way universal health care might do that. But again, just one man's opinion. I got to say on all this economic data, I think we're kind of missing the lead here, which is we are at the beginning of an economic boom. Again, we saw it in the GDP growth rates in Q3 and Q4 last year, over 4 % Q3, over 5 % Q4. We just had a January job report where the economy added 172 ,000 new private sector jobs. This blew away the expectation, which was around 70 ,000. At the same time, the government shed 42 ,000 jobs. The net of this was to bring the unemployment rate down to 4.3%.

53:37So I remember a few months ago, J. Cal, you were wringing your hands about the fact that the unemployment rate had ticked up. Well, now it's back down. And you're seeing a lot of jobs being created in construction, especially non-residential construction, has to do with the data centers, the AI boom that's going on, 33 ,000 new construction jobs in January. You've seen in President Trump's second term, you've had 615 ,000 new private sector jobs have been created, while again, like we talked about, over 300 ,000 government jobs have been cut, which increases the productivity of the economy. And it does what Secretary Besson says, which is reprivatize the economy.

54:17So I just think that the overall economic news is really good. Again, we have this AI boom going on. There's a new chart showing that the CapEx for this year that's expected just from the four leading hyperscalers is$600 billion, just from four companies. That's a roughly 2 % tailwind to GDP growth right there. That is just the CapEx. That doesn't include all the ROI that you might get from that infrastructure on the software side, on the application side, the productivity side. So we have a boom going on, and I feel like everyone's kind of blackpilling about this. They're focusing on this CBO report that has unrealistically low growth rates.

55:03We're going to print 6%. Right, or they're doom scrolling about Epstein or what have you. And I just think when we look back on this period, it could end up being a little bit like the late 90s. Remember when we look back on the late 90s, we're like, wow, we had phenomenal economic growth. Golden age. Golden age, economic boom. Labor participation. the internet. Right. But if you remember what politics were like at that time period, all I talked about was whether Bill Clinton got a blowjob from Lewinsky. So my point is just, again, I'm not sure we're focused on the right things. I suspect we'll look back on this time period as the beginning of a new golden age.

55:38I agree. I think you're correct. And just in terms of the hand-wringing comment, anytime a statistic is 10, 15%, I highlight it. I wouldn't use hand-wringing. I would just say, we generally look at that when we went from 4.1%, which is where Trump inherited it, went up to 4.5. It's about a 10 % increase in one year. If that trend were to continue, that would be notable. But to your point, it's gone down. And that is because the border, I believe the Southern border is closed. And as you're pointing out, we've got a lot of good news in the economy. So people are hiring still. And so we are in really good economic shape.

56:14I would say it's hard to deny that. All the job creation has been enjoyed by Native-born Americans as well. All the job loss has been on non-Native-born Americans, which is pretty remarkable. So that, I think, is also going to accrue to the benefit of more Americans. By the way, just on the unemployment thing, there was a slight tick up in October because of the October 1 buyouts. Remember, Doge created the buyout program? Yes. They all hit in September or October? When did they hit it? It was October 1st was the deadline for that. And so we had a tick up in unemployment related to that. But remember, all of those were voluntary buyouts.

56:52They all chose the Doge option. That's what created the tick up in unemployment. But again, it was all, I think, a good and voluntary tick up. And now the unemployment rate has ticked down. So again, the job creation right now is strong. and to just put a finer point on it the top two areas where illegal aliens are working in the united states most people don't know this construction number one and the second one is leisure and hospitality so you got two and a half million people working in those two categories which is why i said if you want to see more americans take jobs and you want to see wages go up if you went to those businesses and you find those businesses for hiring illegal aliens which is the easiest thing in the world to do you just show up at a construction site you take pictures of everybody who is working illegally, which is what they used to do in the ICE agency.

57:39They would then do, you know, surveillance of construction sites, and then they would go and find the construction person, and then they had to hire Americans, or that construction company would get in serious trouble. There's been multi-million dollar fines done over the last 20 years, specifically on construction sites, and that would drive more people to raise the wages of construction workers, which would even lower unemployment more, and increase labor participation. patient that's where the big win is go to construction sites so you want you want ice to randomly raid employers construction sites i wouldn't use the term raid raid is no i serve and just check everyone's papers you want serve you want ice showing up everywhere you want to you want a police state number one they're doing this already gentlemen this is well within their purview look up the legal they have been doing this for 30 years this is actually the technique they used before raiding cities in a chaotic way.

58:30They went, they surveilled, which is their right to do. They have the right to do that. I didn't say raid. I said surveil. That is a peaceful, quiet thing to do. And then they find business owners. The business owners are the people who are causing this problem. If there was not a job available in construction for 20, 30, 40 bucks an hour off the books and not paying taxes, those immigrants who are crossing illegally would not be here. If they couldn't get a$30 an hour off the bookshop, working at a hotel, or as a dishwasher, they would not come. And the businesses need to stop hiring them. Okay.

59:04So you mean, exactly. Explain surveil. So what is, how do they, how do they, with a camera, figure out if someone's illegal? What's the camera figuring out? Okay. So you guys, it's very simple. Oh, you have to retina scan first. No, And so then you'll know who's a citizen. No, I want to hear, I want to hear the surveilling. If you want to hear the answer and how misinformed the three of you are and biased, I will tell you. You're all misinformed and biased. This is what surveillance is. I don't know how you're going to surveil someone to figure out they're illegal. It's super simple. You go to the construction site.

59:32Everybody checks in in their morning. They have a truck. This has been done for decades, gentlemen. They take pictures of everybody. Then they go in at the end of the day after surveilling for weeks, Chema. And they have done this already. This is all facts. They've had multiple cases where they go to the construction site. They take pictures. They take a video. Then they go to the business owner and say, show us these people's pay stubs. and the business owner goes, I don't have pay stubs for these people. And they say, okay, here's a video of them working for eight hours a day. Where's their pay stub?

1:00:02Show us their taxes. The businesses are paying people off the books. That is tax evasion. And then they got multi million dollar fines. Here's a very important case. This is from back in 2017. The Justice Department and ICE went after a group which was hiring illegal aliens. This is the largest payment ever in an immigration case. $95 million recovered,$80 million criminal forfeiture,$15 million in civil payments. That represented, according to our Justice Department, in 2017, the largest ever levied immigration case. We can solve almost all of the immigration issues, with the exception of maybe criminal gangs just by doing basic surveillance basic you know detective work asking these businesses to show the pay stubs of the people working for them and ice has been doing this they've already been doing this your suggestion is to do this for every company in america okay so again you're being hyperbolic and you're not which companies do you choose I said, I said this at the top.

1:01:11You pick the number one employer of illegal aliens, 2.5 million people working construction. You start with the largest construction sites, and then you work backwards. Then you start with the largest restaurant and hotel chains. If Stephen Miller were doing this, you'd say he's not compassionate enough. You'd call him a fascist. I have, nope, incorrect. Once again, incorrect. I have stated publicly here on the pod, and I have stated publicly on Twitter that this is actually what Stephen Miller should do, because this would go after the people who are causing the immigration problem. The people causing the immigration problem are the people causing the immigration problem.

1:01:40Hold on, let me finish. The people causing this problem are the business owners. They are providing the incentive to come here. Stephen Miller should stop doing the crazy raids and he should go and just surveil and get fines. You don't think it's the government benefits that are incentivizing people to come? I think that's like far down the list. Two, three, four. Far down the list? Yes. Is the free healthcare and the free food and the free housing? I actually have statistics. I can give you statistics. According to this LA Times survey, 75 % of immigrants come here for better job opportunities.

1:02:13People coming to America illegally are coming here for economic reasons. They are not coming here to commit crimes. They are not coming here to get benefits. That is way down the list. That is a small percentage. How is this going to deport all the gangbangers, the rapists, the murderers, the ones who aren't working on a farm? They're not doing legitimate work. That's a total separate issue. They should go do that. That's a separate issue. They should go do those and go after anybody committing bonkers. But that is what ICE was doing. They're trying to round up the known criminals for whom they get warrants, and then they capture them and deport them.

1:02:45That's a separate problem. Yeah, those are two separate problems. I'm not talking about the problem of gangbangers. You can do gangbangers. I'm talking about if you actually want to move big numbers. The gangbangers are a small number. The people working in construction, the people working at hotels are the big number. Yeah, they're both equally important. Sex, we're in agreement. Okay. Yeah, the thing we're not doing at scale is going after the businesses that are creating the incentive for the majority of people who come here. Ferrari has a new car coming in. It's going to be their first all electric vehicle, very polarizing.

1:03:22here's an illustration of the vehicle from car and driver this is not the accurate one because it's going to be revealed in may but this is what they think it's going to look like a thousand plus horsepower four electric motors zero to 60 in under 2.5 seconds uh 330 mile range it's the heaviest ferrari ever 5100 pounds compared to the iconic f40 which was but 3 000 pounds it's going to launch in may of 2026 but we got to see the interior and this is what everybody's buzzing about it's gone viral on the interwebs former apple design chief johnny ive uh on his team with his partner mark newsome who also designed the iconic ford o21c concept car were involved in this well what is that uh it's this is like if you're a car nerd this was like this incredibly innovative moment in design that never happened that ford did it looks very similar to an apple product here's the key for the new ferrari looks like an animated character in cars it does like that you know you have this beautiful square glass key like an iphone you put it in and the yellow ferrari yellow drains out and goes into the shifter that was one nuance that people thought was very beautiful the screen looks very mac inspired except unlike tesla which is no buttons and removing buttons they're adding buttons here and making the buttons very tactile all the sports car enthusiasts love tactile memory-based buttons that you can just have fun with and flip and feel like you're a fighter pilot finally the turning the car on is like starting up a jet you have a launch button, you twist and press and it makes the whole car turn Ferrari orange or red.

1:05:04And yeah, that's the inside. Saks, you buying one? You like it? I saw everyone just, you know, all over this design. And I thought it was a little bit unfair in the sense that I actually overall liked the interior. I thought I found a compromise between, you know, let's call it the all glass cockpit of a Tesla versus a totally analog old Ferrari interior. Like you said, it had a combination of screens, but then also buttons. And they made a point of showing that the buttons were not only nicely tactile, but they also made pleasing sounds and that kind of stuff. It seemed very heavy duty. So I thought the interior actually was pretty good.

1:05:50Again, nice balance between kind of the interior of a race car, the simplicity of that iPad screen, but also having enough sort of buttons that you develop muscle memory around where all the controls are. You don't have to go hunting for them through a menu. I thought the Missier wasn't on the inside. I thought it was on the outside. I hate the look of the outside of this car. It looks to me like - By the way, just to be clear, that look is what people are projecting. It's not the final version. I think this is terrible. This to me looks like a Corvette maybe, or even like a free and Sam. I mean, it looks like a model three.

1:06:23Yeah. I don't, I don't like the, what's that like the black part of the front or, and even the grill, the grill, it looks terrible and the things going on on the sides. And then the back almost looks like a hatchback or something. It's just, you know, a Ferrari should look swoopier. It should look curvier and there should be fewer different pieces to it. A hundred. So I don't know. It doesn't look right to me as a Ferrari, but I thought the inside actually was fine. I like it. Yeah. Chamop, you buyer. When's the last time you actually drove yourself, Sax? Have you actually used a steering wheel in the last decade?

1:06:57When's the last time you actually used a steering wheel? Full self-driving has made me a driver again because I just set the full self-driving. Wow. You're driving yourself. Well, with FSD. Yeah. Okay. So you're now driving around Texas. I like it. With FSD. Okay. Because the Uber takes forever. So now I'm just like, yeah. You like, you've always liked to drive Chamath, I think. You're driving yourself these days or you? I drive myself in a Model Y with FSD or I take a Waymo. One of the two. Yeah, Waymo's in the valley now, yeah. I've had a Ferrari. What I would tell you is that there's just something that's very unique.

1:07:35There's a Ferrari experience that's different from every other car. And I think that the new CEO, Benedetto Vina, is a very talented executive, and I think that he's probably going to land something beautiful. The thing is that we are racing against time, and I've said this before, but FSD and autonomy is going to shift the number of people that even know what it means to drive. it will feel like when we look at somebody who really embraces thoroughbred racing, it's just going to happen in smaller and smaller places and less and less often. And that's not because these cars aren't beautiful, but it's because the risk will not make any sense for most people under most conditions.

1:08:25And I think that's the big thing that's going to change. like the car culture in america was a profound part of the american culture you know driving from a to b on vacation the sense of freedom the building of the interstate highway system these were huge parts of what made america great and the rails on which all this productivity sat on top of and now i think it's all going to change so i don't know i mean i think the car will probably be beautiful like ferraris are beautiful there's a ferrari dealership in redwood city and whenever I drive by it, I slow down and I look out. Yum, yum. They make beautiful cars.

1:09:03Piece of art, yeah. And I think in places like China and India, they're always going to have a market. But I think in places like the United States, it's going to become so expensive to pay for the insurance if you are driving yourself that the idea that you would buy any car is going to feel tougher and tougher just because I think the math is going to be tough. but the experience inside of the Ferrari is second to none. So it probably is that there's going to be a bunch of high-end cars like Ferrari, where you pay for the experience. You're in a position to pay for the car. You'll pay for the insurance.

1:09:38The luxury. All of it. And then the rest of us will be using FSD or Waymo. 100%. We have two Model Ys and we have to get another car. And it's like, well, what else can we buy? We have no choice. It's either buy one of the last Xs or buy a Y. Well, deprecating the X really bought. I have a real problem now, which is I have five kids. So the X is the only car that can manage seven people. So I need a new solution. There is a three-row, by the way, Model Y, but it's a bit tight. It's a bit tight. It's not good. It's a bit tight. I wish Elon would have made the minivan or the three-row SUV. And who knows?

1:10:16Maybe he does someday. When I was in Abu Dhabi, I saw my dream car. It is this Lexus minivan. and the doors open and it's like first class airline seats yes and the front is completely blacked out so you have total privacy this car yes this car yes i this is not it's not for selling it's not available in america why is this car or minivan whatever not available in the united states i think it's the lexus lm and then there's the alfred oh my god in japan sacks it's incredible cars this is the interior this is the interior you want to be driven captain's chairs it's got a full screen look at this divider between the two with the drivers in the front um and then you have this incredible those aren't the captain's there show the captain's there's the captain's beautiful captain's chairs they're gorgeous it's basically like an executive van these are like etihad first class airline seats it's unbelievable look at these look at these two seats Unbelievable.

1:11:19Gorgeous. And you have a full monitor in front of you, David. You press a button and the monitor rises and falls so you can talk to your driver or have CNBC on. I like getting in and out of SUVs or minivans. So easy. The height is good for me. So easy to get. And the Alfred is the other one. None of these are available in the US. These are the number one cars in China, Singapore, the Middle East for chauffeur driven cars. They're incredible. What an Alfred? What's that? Alfred is the Toyota version. And then Lexus is obviously the higher brand of Toyota. And they make, I think it's called the LS is the name for these.

1:11:53Can I get them in the news? All right, boys. I love you very much. That's another amazing episode of the All In Podcast. 261 weeks and counting. Wow. Still going strong? Episode 261? I think it's 261. All right. Back at you. Let's get out of here. Love you, boys. Love you, besties. Bye-bye. We'll let your winners ride. Rain Man David Sacks. And it said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you, West. I'm the queen of Kenwa. I'm going all in.

1:12:31Besties are gone. That's my dog taking a notice in your driveway. Sacks. Oh, man. My Abitasha will meet me at Blaine's. We should all just get a room and just have one big Hugh Georgie because they're all just useless. It's like this sexual tension, but they just need to release somehow. Wet your feet. Wet your feet. We need to get merch. I'm doing all in.

1:13:04I'm doing all in.