E142: "Rich Men North of Richmond" hits #1, upward mobility, real estate capital crunch, Trump RICO

24:22but the rest of America, the other 80 % have been flat. And I think if you are born into the United States or told the story of the American dream, the story of the American dream is you can come here, work hard, be smart, put in the effort, put in the time, and you'll be able to progress in your life in terms of comforts and assets and all these things. And for most of Americans, that story has not played out. They've worked hard, they've put in the effort, They've tried to be smart. They followed the rules. They've done what the systems and the governments have said you should do in order to get the rewards and They're left with flat earnings over several decades And that's the story of America right now and because of this the top 20 % the top 5 % have acquired You know an outside of the amount of the assets and outside the amount of the income as as we all know and have all benefited from And the vast majority of Americans so that have been working I have a question for freeberg.

25:20Do you think that we should implement policies to change the lines on this graph? Exactly what I was going to ask. Yeah. I want to reference you guys to the Tim Ferris interview with Charles Koch from a couple of years ago. In that interview, he gives a really good example and I'm going to mess this up a bit. But he talks about how certain women that are hairdressers in the inner city, they want to go do the hair braiding thing. But in order to do it, they have to pay thousands of dollars to school to get certified and then they have to go to the city to get a license in order to be able to do that job.

25:56So the economic cost of getting there is insurmountable for them. And there's countless examples like this, wherein the US, we've created policies that have attempted to be forms of protection or perhaps be forms of income generation for cities and governments and so on. that in the process, unfortunately, have limited the mobility of people that want to be individual owners and entrepreneurs in the US. I think that is the first thing I would do to address this problem. Give every American the opportunity to be an entrepreneur to build their own path. Do you think that here, braiding licensing, fixing that problem will cause the dashed black line or the blue line to shrink?

26:38or I guess what I'm trying to ask you is should those lines shrink? Yeah. I don't think it's the government's role, right? I'll tell you. I'll tell you. I just want to hear. I want to hear. I want to hear Friedberg's answer, Jason. I'll answer the question. I'll answer the question. Okay. I said this in the past. If you shrink those lines, you will limit overall progress. And what I mean by progress is improvements in productivity, improvements in advances in technology in business and economic growth because we've seen this many times in the past, there's a certain limit on taxation. So one method is to tax, right?

27:17Pull more money out of the top earners and redistribute it. The problem is when you do that, there's less capital in the hands of those who have proven themselves to be good at driving productivity and improving access for goods and commodities and things that are cheaper for everyone. So there is a cost to doing that and that has been, this has played out. I mean, this is the Roman Empire. This is the British Empire. This is played out countless times in history. In recent years, it's played out probably half a dozen. You're evading, you're evading the question. I just want to know what you think.

27:47What do you think? I think that there's an important balance to strike. So I don't think it's about taking away from the top as much as it's about enabling the bottom, if that makes sense. It doesn't because that's what everybody says they want to do. And this is, it's been 50 years of people saying that doesn't work. What? Yeah. So he's not going to answer. So you answered him off. What do you think? I'm just telling you, there's a consequence to doing, you know, whatever we want to do to try and make everyone equal and end up in a show. Here's my issue. Right. The way that you presented, like you tell it in a language and even I felt it where I was like, wow, this guy's really empathizing.

28:20Wow. My God. He's really. But then the follow up to like, well, what would you do is not existent? And I think that that's the real problem. A lot of people want to pretend that this is an issue and they want to get the sympathy of the masses by giving the populist rhetoric of why this is an issue, but when push comes to shove and the question is, do you believe that the dashed black line or the blue line should be legislatively brought down to meet the other lines? People just evade the question. In my perspective, the answer is no. You cannot do that. And the reason why United States GDP is where it is is because of that dashed line.

28:56It's an existence proof of the fact that this is the largest economy in the world. And so one has to make a really simplistic decision which is do you want economic supremacy? And then try to figure out ways of rebalancing things or do you not? I say you absolutely must start with that which means that that dashed line and that blue line will always have a rate of acceleration. That is greater than the other lines and that's just natural op -x leverage that exists in any company. If you look at a company with 50 % EBITDA margins versus a company with 15 % EBITDA margins because one uses technology and the other one doesn't It's capitalism is right with these examples Yeah, Timoth that is the smartest thing you've said in a hundred and 42 episodes the only pot But I agree a hundred percent Timoth with your I think it's well said, but then you should just say it I think we do a huge disservice by pretending to care and then not seeing the ugly truth.

29:58The ugly truth is none of us want the government to try to bring that dashed black line or that blue line down, we want them to stay out of our way. That is the truth. Yep. So if you talk to that guy that wrote that song and his 80 million followers, he, I don't think he's... What do you say to them? What do you say to them? I don't know. I'm going to get sex in sex go. Okay, look, I think when you see a chart like that, the natural instinct is that you want to argue for redistribution. You basically want to take from one of the top lines and just give it to one of the bottom lines. And I think that only works to a degree.

30:39I think it's important that we have a social safety net. But what we've seen is that Marxist redistribution doesn't ultimately work. It actually makes a society poor. I think this work, Tomathe is right. The simplistic solutions don't work. We're not going to move from fundamentally a capitalist system to a sort of Marxist redistributive system. But that doesn't mean that we can't do things to improve the situation for the average American. And I think there are the policies are more complicated, but I think we could have much more prudent handling of our fiscal situation so that inflation, for example, doesn't either way the wages of American workers.

31:16I think we could have a much more sensible immigration policy so that there's not I think a lot of competition for let's call it low -end jobs. I Think we could have had a better trade policy with China over the last 20 years. I Think there's things that we could do that were more nuance that would have improved the situation for working class Americans and We didn't do it and you compound that with again all these elite failures around things like COVID, around things like foreign wars. Let's add to this the Robert F. Kennedy Jr. critique of regulatory capture that the military industrial complex is bleeding this country dry.

31:57And I think you add all those things together and I can see why there are complaints. There have been four major responses over the past 50 years to this problem. the one and all of them involve creating budget dollars to fund access to everyone of three major things, which is healthcare, education and housing. And it sounds good in principle. It is a good thing to say everyone deserves to have access to buying a home. Everyone deserves to have access to an education. Everyone deserves to have access to healthcare. The problem is, when the federal government has stepped in to build the programs to provide these solutions, they've created extraordinary incentive problems that have caused asset bubbles and have ultimately caused failure in the underlying system that you're trying to give everyone access to.

32:44We have told every American that they should put all of their net worth and more into their house. And as a result, we've had to continue to drive up the price of housing in the US, drive up, create a housing bubble by pouring a ton of capital in to keep that asset safe and protect it because it is where most Americans have put their nest egg. We've given everyone access to an education by giving free student loans out, and those student loans have caused an asset bubble in the price of education. And we have tried to provide health care to everyone through the federal government that has no accountability, and as a result, the cost of healthcare has ballooned.

33:17So I think the one question for you guys is in the sense that most people are saying these are three critical things that I need access to, but when the federal government gets involved and provides them the cost sores and we have all of these bubble problems and disincentives that arise in the system and money gets stolen and yada yada what's the right solution then right how do you provide sex that that you know that 80 % of Americans access to these things that you know boost their condition in life without causing what is effectively inflation across all I don't think those areas yeah I would like to start by just saying when we look at this chart I think it maybe looks worse than it actually is in reality I think when you look at the chart, you say, oh my God, this is terrible.

33:58But there are people around the world who are fighting to get into this country who want to be part of this chart. Now, why do they want to be part of this chart? It's because they perceive that, you know, even the middle quartile, even the fourth quartile here, the bottom quartile, they feel like that's better than their lot in life in their country. So this, if you were to expand it and put a couple of other countries on it, you would say, hey, even the people who are in the fourth quartile in America are doing better than people in the middle quartile in in another country and the opportunity is still here.

34:28And that's my second point, which is, you know, how easy is it or how possible is it for, you know, the next generation, you know, if you came here as immigrants like many of you did and obviously, you know, my grandparents did, how easy is it to get from that green line to the orange, from the orange to the red, the red to the purple, et cetera? That's the generalization. And that's why I think we need to focus on, forget about all the programs, Forget about tax moving up. How do you move up? That's a wonderful point because I think the generalization that this chart is like chart porn because It meant to be titillating, but it tells a very poor story of that exact dynamic Which is if you started in the green line which I did you know my parents my parents made 32 ,000 That's the most they ever made in their best year But most of the time with welfare we were on living on between 15 and 21 ,000 dollars a year Yet somehow, you know, we went from the green line to the dashed black line.

35:26So the thing that this chart isn't really representing is, is there enough people that go from green to orange, orange to red, red to purple, purple to blue, blue to dashed black? That's what really matters. That's what, that's why I think this chart is mostly pointless. Because if in fact what you saw was that in any given cohort of people, they were not the cohort before that was in the dashed black line, you would say, wow, we're actually creating wealth distribution in a very unique way, which is an entire new core to people are becoming wealthy in every generation. If however, it's the same 50 people that are in the dashed black line, obviously that's not good.

36:09But our lived experience is not that. So I think the real question is like, can we just be, can we find a different way of actually telling the truth using this information so that instead of so that instead of bear hugging random populous sentiments and statements to try to win favor with people, we actually just acknowledge the problem where it lies. That individual that wrote that song, which line is Yon, which line was his father on and which line was his children beyond? That's the critical question. It's not that the lines shouldn't exist. Yeah. And nowhere else on Earth would the three of us.

36:49I mean, you know, which line did you start on? I started in the green. I'm asking for a bird. Where do you start? I mean, between the fourth quartile and the middle quartile. I mean, when we moved to the US, my parents always just looked for gigs that they could make money. So you were fourth quartile, you think? Forty -cag? Yeah, we had no money. I don't know what to tell you. I mean, we, you know, my parents, we moved to LA when I was six years old from South Africa and they worked gigs their entire lives. Yeah. I think my family went from fourth to the middle and then my brothers and I all went up to at least one or two lines higher.

37:21By the way, I think that's the important story. If you guys read some of the comments on YouTube, which we always argue we should or shouldn't have, but I just want to point this out, there's Kitchimov's point. There's immediate approximation of people based on which quartile or quintile they're in rather than an approximation on their transversal of the quartiles or quintiles or whatever. Well, I think what's really true about all four of us is that we all transverse the quintiles We all moved from there to there and none of us were wealthy Just a few years ago. We all you know made our way in the world and in the United States in a way that we would not have been able to Anywhere else on earth and I do think that that is the most powerful aspect of you know American liberalism and democracy still I think this characterization of people based on their their wealth is what's so disturbing to me.

38:15Because you hear it from the public. You hear it from AOC. But it discredits the fact that those people typically were not wealthy a few years ago, that the people that should be celebrated are the ones that went from not wealthy to wealthy through the means of creating things that ended up being useful and productive or whatever the system asked for, and they created value there. And I think that the lack of recognition of entrepreneurship the ability for immigrants to come to this country and transverse these quintiles. Yeah, but that is one of the challenges. Yeah, that would require them to be a little bit curious about the individual and to not use the individual Has just an object to win their argument and you know, I think that's that is the sin of politics is that they're just using just different objects out Let me ask you the question that what do you say to the blue collar worker enrichment that this guy is speaking to you in terms of Their ability to transverse those quintiles to go from low income earner They're a blue collar worker.

39:11They work a union job or they work as a plumber or they work in you know some manufacturing facilities This is the point you're not supposed to grin fuck him so by pretending like all of it This is what they hate they hate all of you fucking people grin fucking them stop grin fucking them stop pretending that you care That you really care and oh whoa was them But the reality is it is implicitly impossible for anybody on this fucking podcast to talk about how this system has not worked for them. And so what we need to do is actually take us that back and just acknowledge the fact that we were in the green line, we somehow by a bunch of fate and luck and hard work and opportunity that this country provided.

39:55And so the real question is, what did that guide? Can he do differently? Has he done or shouldn't have done that has kept them in there? And one of the things that I would like to bring up that is really worth exploring for multi -generational Americans, which is not talked about enough, is when we introduced or when we, I'm talking collectively, we, Lyndon Johnson, really, the war on poverty, that had an inexorable change in the dynamics of America, in black wealth, in white wealth, in the trapped amount of well, the destruction of nuclear families, all of these trends started a few years post the introduction of the war on poverty.

40:33Nobody talks about that. So I disagree with you, Fieberg, when you point to healthcare, and those are secondary and tertiary derivatives of the actual war on poverty. And that was Lyndon Johnson's signature legislation, post -assassination of JFK, and nobody really looks at what that actually did to change and potentially misalign incentives in the United States that have compounded to create this issue. So I would say to the Richmond person, I have enough respect for you, sir, to not grin fuck you and tell you how well was this graph. I don't know what the solution is. And I think we just need to talk and figure out to see if there are some ideas that can improve the situation.

41:12But some of them do come to the fundamental incentives that the government has created that we need to either undo or change. Sex? Yeah, I mean, I think there's a lot of good points in there just to echo some of the things you guys said. I think my family came to America in 1977 and I think my dad was making $27 ,000 a year. So it was green or orange or something like that. One of the bottom, one or two quintiles. And then we moved up because he's a doctor and had that education. So how you doing in this country is going to depend a lot on what kind of education you have what kind of skills you have, like you guys are saying.

41:52Now, that being said, I still think there is a policy role here. I do think that a lot of the policy that has had in this country over the last couple of decades, they've not been great for working class people, and I think there are things we can adjust. But to Tomas' point, declaring a simple war on poverty that's based around redistribution doesn't work because what we've seen is that it also creates a lot of dependency. And so a lot of these policies backfire. So, So simplistic redistribution is not going to solve the problem. However, I do think that having a policy response that does try to create more opportunity in these working class communities.

42:25Again, we didn't need to hollow out our industrial communities by exporting jobs to China. We didn't need to create all this low -end wage pressure by basically having an open border for so many years. So there were choices that we made that did make life rough of these people and then When they start to complain about it, we censor them or call them deplorables And so I do think that the response that The elite has and that really the mainstream media has towards these people Does fuel the alienation and polarization? So we could be reacting we could be reacting a lot better to the complaint here I'll tell you what's happened I think is America went from you know a country where people pulled themselves up by the bootstraps, they believed in radical self -reliance and that they determined their fate.

43:18And then over time, we've solely looked at the government as the determinant of our fate. And what handout, what tax break for the rich, what can I get? What edge can I get on the system? What angle shot, how can I look at the government as a solution to our problems? And what I think all sides of the political spectrum for me to look at and celebrate. And this is why I think Chris Christie and Vivek are like really good candidates, is because they're not looking at handouts or blaming the government or looking to the government to solve problems, but looking at your community, looking inside yourself and saying, Hey, what are the ways in which if I want to, if I want to move up those shradd, and remember, some people work to live.

44:01They don't live to work. They just wanna do their nine to five, put their time in and spend time with their families or do their art, whatever. their job does not define them and we are a biased group of entrepreneurs who are to find ourselves in large part by what we do in our work. Doesn't mean we don't care about our families, but we put that front and center. Some people don't want to move up the line. They're happy and content where they are. But the entire dialogue in America is about how unfair, we split that tax base, as you talk about Freeberg, the spending and everybody wanting their peace and everybody wondering who got a bigger piece of the pie.

44:34I suppose to wondering, hey, how can I improve myself? How can I provide more value to the world? How can I build a business? How can I build a skill set? And that's where the dialogue needs to move in. And I just, when I hear the Vex speak, I disagree with him about a lot of things. I hear Chris Christie speak. I obviously disagree with him about a couple of issues. But I'm liking those candidates. And I'm liking the direction they're going. The Vex has a great line, which is victimization is a choice. And you see different versions of it on both the right and the left. On the left, the victimization is based on identity politics, where if you're born into a certain group, then you're automatically a victim.

45:09Regardless of really your circumstances. On the right, it's more of this populist critique where if you're a working class person, then you've been victimized by those policies. I think there's some degree of truth in both critiques. I mean, I do think that policymakers have to meet people halfway. We need to have policies that work better for working class. We need to have policies that prevent discrimination At the same time people can't just buy into this victimhood mentality where they're like, okay I don't need to do anything on my own to improve my circumstances the whole system is so rigged against me That I don't need to take any agency for my own actions also and I think it needs to be both We have to have policy makers and people meet halfway on this thing.

45:52I also think that there's There's a social dynamic that's also worth exploring here, which is that we live in a culture where a lot of people spend a lot of time projecting a version of themselves. And that version of themselves is mostly meant to accrue social capital to them, but by implication it's to make other people feel envious of them as well. And that's the whole that I'll call it the Instagram phenomenon. And I also think I just think it's important to acknowledge that we live in a point where there's this heightened psychological sensation that everybody else is doing better than you are.

46:35And so you have to find these mechanisms of rationalizing and explaining. And I think that that's also very dangerous. So Jason to your point, there is so much respect. are just very, very simple, you guys met so many of them. Just normal everyday people. And happy. And they're happy. And I have so much respect for that, because they have a balance in their life. And one of the things that defines them is they don't spend time in these media formats that actually exacerbate the sense of being less than everybody else. Competitions. And I find that the reason that consistent thread amongst all of these people that are really well balanced, that at every strata of whatever line you're on, the healthiest people in each of those lines are the ones that actually have a definition of themselves that comes from within that is multifaceted, that generally includes a deep relationship with one romantic partner and it includes your kids.

47:40Everything else is very much secondary. And it's not defined by where you want to go and where you want to be. It's defined by the day you're living. I had a great conversation after a lot of wine and tequila and beer and I know what else. Don't etch them off wedding actually. I forgot the guy's name. So with Drake, I said to the guy, this Italian guy, I'm sorry, forgot his name. Really nice guy. And we were talking about the difference between Americans and Italians and how the Italians are all about, let's just live for today, enjoy our moment, enjoy our experience, enjoy our time. The Americans all just want to talk about where things are going, where we're headed, what we're looking for, what we're trying to achieve.

48:22And so much about, the irony is, I've got my brother visiting from Europe this week, and so much of the conversation difference that we've talked about is in America, we talk about winning. It's like everything is a contest, everything is about getting ahead, everything is about a challenge, everything is about So what's next? How do I get the next level? Scorecard. And that's what's made us the greatest entrepreneurial, you know, society, the greatest 250 years of progress in human history is that I disagree with that. I disagree with that. But it also makes you profoundly sad. If you only live for the scorecard and not the game entrepreneurs have to be scared.

48:58I don't think they're looking at somebody else saying I'm going to beat that guy. I don't think that that's where it comes from. Forget about the term, forget about competition. Just make it about progress. Where am I going? And that we orient ourselves around where we headed versus where we could you know, just enjoying this moment that you have today. The moment and I think that there's a big cultural difference between the US and the guy I was sitting next to it, you're wetting Chimoff. These folks are just very much about enjoying this experience and not thinking about what's next and where we're going.

49:26We come in. Everyone's saunters around. No one's thinking about what time we have to start. Everyone's just enjoying their time with each other and the American. They're like, what are we starting the wedding? What are we doing this? What are we doing that? The litmus test for that I find is when you first meet somebody and I encourage all of you guys to try to do this is to not go to what do you do as the question. Right American class. How long can you go without asking that question? What do you do? And I find it's so amazing to actually have conversations with people where that question never comes up.

50:06you really, really, really learn a lot about people. I think a lot of this also is like, you know, I was watching the center of Tim Scott. I'd love to have him on the program. I know he's maybe not got the highest percentage right now and we got a bunch of other candidates coming on the program by the way for the audience. But I was just taken back by, I saw Joy Bajar or whatever the host of the view is. Joy Bajar. And Joy Bajar. And she was just admonishing him that he doesn't understand systematic racism. He's a black man. And he's like, I am the product of the American system. I'm proud of where I got to.

50:45And she was, you know, she's constantly trying to make him feel worse that the, you know, the conditions are terrible. This is, it's funny because like, it's like a very weird, basically disjoint. Somebody basically saying that Tim Scott is not allowed to be proud of his journey. Basically. That's what she did. Why? Who's right? It's really weird and I just want to take one other moment from the song. Because this song got pegged as like maybe it's propaganda. I don't know if it is. Maybe this guy, people started doing their like how do we take this guy down? Like the left and the right lunatics on the fringe.

51:24Always try to do something happens that's nice or whatever. We got to take the person down and maybe the guy is on the take. I don't know. It's just an artist to me. But he liked or had a playlist of 9 -11 conspiracy theories, but he says here in the song, Lord, we got folks in the street and got nothing to eat. And the obese milk and welfare will God, if you're five foot three and you're 300 pounds, taxes ought not to pay for your bags of fudge rounds. Talk about the welfare state. Young men are putting themselves six feet in the ground because all this damn country does is keep kicking them down referencing, I think, Jordan Peterson and the suicide rate among young men and their hopelessness and et cetera.

52:08And it's very hard. I think I would encourage people to be careful trying to pin this as a left or a right song. This is about working class people feeling frustrated with the system, it was my read on it. And maybe even fighting back and taking a little bit of their power. but a great song. Congratulations to him. And I hope he writes some more tunes. Reminded me of pick a song like The River by Bruce Springsteen or Telegraph Road by Dyer Straits. Just so many great songs about the working man. Congratulations on hitting number one and everybody else can tear it down and in the comments you can tell us we're out of touch even though we moved up the lines.

52:47I think that's by the way why some people like this show and you know have is because maybe we did move up a couple of lines and maybe we might have a perspective at some point in, you know, how to do that. Let's move on, I guess. I think everybody got their shot at this. All right, the big short, too, Michael Burry. He just made a bet against the markets. This was trending. I'm not sure how much of this is all true, but there's been some reporting on it. Burry's fun has recently bought 866 million and put options against the S &P and 739 million puts against the NASDAQ. These are headline numbers on the SEC.

53:25There's probably more to it. Contacts, obviously, we all know the markets ripped. NASDAQ up 37 % this year, S &P up 15 % this year. Inflation getting cracked. GDP looking strong. Unemployment on the floor. A number of job openings still above 9 .X million. Pretty crazy to think about how resilient this economy is with pockets of of disastrous stuff, but what's your take on this free bird? Yeah, I think the reporting's a little wrong on this. So, okay. This came out of a 13F filing and on the 13F filing, you, when you report option contracts, remember each option contract represents a hundred underlying shares.

54:05And you don't have to talk about the strike or the expiry on the option contract when you do the 13F filing. So we don't actually know what the strike or the expiry is on the option, and that dollar amount that's being reported is when they take the number of option contracts multiplied by 100, which is how many shares per contract, and then just use the price on the actual underlying index. He may have paid a dollar in option. He may have had an option that was three years out of the way out of the money. This could be much smaller. It could be a short -term contract. It's just a near -term hedge on the portfolio, and we have no idea which the actual dollar value of the contract is.

54:40It could be really way out. It could just be a short -term hedge. So we really don't know directionally or magnetunally how significant this is. So it's a bit of a misreporting without knowing the strike and the expiry. We don't know how much he actually spent buying these puts and what the bet really means. Is it a near -term bet or long -term? And what's the reason you're having this portfolio, Rich? You don't have to disclose in a 13F what your short positions are. And so all you have to do is disclose what your ownership is. So my suspicion is that Michael probably has what's called the short straddle on and so a short straddle is when you're basically selling a call and You're buying a put and so we know we've talked about these a lot which is instead of taking a naked exposure for 1 .6 billion dollars which seems very Aggressive and risk on and he's not the type of guy if you look at his creating activity that does that kind of stuff His typical positions are 50 basis points 80 basis points 100 basis points So he's not a big risk taker.

55:40So what he probably has on is what's called the short straddle and What you don't have to disclose in these 13 Fs is the other side of the trade where you're short of call And so I suspect that's what that is. So this is a big much ado about nothing. It's good headlines in a moment where there's not much to talk about. It's August and the media, you know, this is The media business losing its business model and Google and Facebook taking all their revenue and Craigslist and Facebook book, you know, marketplace taking all their and Michael by the way, Michael grab it on Twitter and tell us that we're wrong, but I'm sure dollars to know that he's he's got a short stretch.

56:15Didn't he go off but winner he's like done with Twitter. He goes on and off and he auto deletes his tweets. So I said a zappier up anytime he tweets. He puts it in the slack room for me. Have you guys know that the quantity of drinking this is my sense of working a little worried here. Oh, well, you guys tubes in that. No, but let me just say this. Look, I'm I'm back in the United States next week. So this is the end of the vacation end of it's end of a one month where I don't exercise except for swimming and walking I eat gelato every day and I drink wine every day So this is the end and then I'm back.

56:46What's the weight difference day one to day 30? What's day one to day 30? Look at that perfectly chilled mantra. Shea. Oh look at that the glasses I can see the condensation I see the condensation from beer I gained two and a half kilos So what does that five pounds? Yeah, that's fine. You get less level. That's level. I have a moderate four pack. That's two weeks a month, Jarno. No big deal. Yeah, no, you'll be back in the game. We'll get you back in the game, kid. I'm going to see Jake Helen about in about an hour. Freeberg and I are going on a love walk. We have a lot of romantic moments, so we're just going to do a little.

57:19Can I shift the very short back into... Just my last point on the burden thing. The media needs to do a better job of making sure they understand these things just a bit, because the headline is just a little bit weird. Totally. without knowing how to contact. It's very hard to be a finance writer, because if you're a great finance writer, you could be in finance and be a capital allocator. Oh, hey kids. I got a car. Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh. So sure you got a car. Where are the monkeys? I'm so sorry, I'm so sorry. Hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on. Get in the gelato. Yeah, let me fix it, let me fix it.

57:50Let me fix. Where's the gelato? Oh. You know what I'm still on? You know, these two kids this past week, were literally like jumping, I think they're the light. They're the camera. They were jumping in the sea. These two kids were swimming without any help whatsoever. It was the most incredible thing to see. When little kids learn how to swim, isn't it joyous? It's joyous. It's joyous. It's joyous. Okay, back to you guys. Sorry. Back to you. I love you, no, I love you. Bye, bye, bye. Let's talk about wealth disparity from. Tell you coast. I think we're a month, which are $500 a month, Claire hat.

58:29Let's talk about wealth, spare to go. No, it's my point's not about wealth disparity. Okay, sorry. I think we should follow up on where the economy is right now and what the macro situation is like. Why Michael Barry might want to short the market? Yes. So in terms of where things stand today, I think the consensus view of the street is that inflation is largely in the review mirror. It was down to 3 % last month and the bet now I think is that it will continue to remain low It will be in this two and a half to three percent range at the end of the year and therefore the Fed will be able to cut rates Next year and the market has rallied quite a bit in anticipation of that.

59:08I think that is the consensus view I think there are at least two really big risk factors to that one is that inflation could still rebound We haven't really gotten that many months of good inflation data and if inflation and ticks back up if there's another wave of it in the next several months, and then will not be rate cuts next year, and that means if it's rates are higher than anticipated, valuations come down. So that would be a big risk factor to the market. The other big risk factor is, I think, in the real economy. It's true that the economy does not seem to be hurt so far by these huge interest rate hikes that we've had.

59:44However, there is typically a big lag in the impact on the real economy of rate hikes. And I think you could still see these rate hikes take effect over the next several months and you could see a real dip in the economy, potentially a recession, and that would be a big risk factor to the markets because right now the markets are pricing in a soft landing or no landing. They're pricing the economy. We're just gonna go fly by. Right, right. So what is the evidence that there might be a lag? Well, a couple of things, and it really has to do with real estate, which I think is the most impacted asset class by rate hikes, you saw that the mortgage rate is the highest has been in over 20 years.

1:00:23Yeah, since 77 .7 .7 .9%. And the rates I'm seeing in Florida and other places, mortgages are like 8%. Well, if it's going to cost you 8 % to buy a new house and it used to be 3 % a couple of years ago, you're not going to be able to afford to buy that same level of house. and you can't afford to sell your current house and buy a new one because your current house is finance at 3 % You're not gonna give a mortgage to trade into an 8 % mortgage So we're already seeing a huge reduction in the number of transactions in residential real estate and so that means that we're not seeing a lot of fresh marks in terms of where prices are But that doesn't mean the valuations haven't gone lower I think that as this washes through the system, you could see a big correction in the values of residential real estate Which is most people's main asset?

1:01:14So I think there's a big risk factor there the other big risk factor is on the commercial real estate side There was an interesting article on the Wall Street Journal about distress funds are forming in anticipation Of a lot of commercial real estate projects Basically going under so the vultures on Wall Street are going to be looking to scoop up these projects I think the really interesting thing about commercial real estate right now is Multi -family until now the conversation has all been about office space and we know that office space has impaired Because of the high vacancy rates that this the sector just hasn't come back the same way from home since COVID right exactly But now we're starting to see real distress in the multi -family sector now Why is this happened because multi -family is full?

1:02:01There's no vacancy problem Yeah, it's hard to get a home and more people would be renting if more is just high. So the problem is on the demand side. The problem is in the capital stack. So let me describe the problem of what's happened here is let's say that you are a real estate developer who bought multi -family. You bought it at a certain price level. Let's say you find a set two thirds with debt. You now need to go out and refinance that project because let's say you did a value add. Let's say you basically disarm improvements to it. That means you didn't put long -term debt on it. You can't put long -term debt on a project that's not stabilized yet.

1:02:36If you want to do value add work to it, you get what's called a construction loan for two or three years. So there's a lot of real estate developers who need to go out right now and finance these projects that they bought. They bought these projects at the top of the market. So let's say you're going out now to refinance. First of all, the rates are much higher. You're looking at paying 8 or 9 percent instead of the 3 to 4 percent that you had a penciled in your model a couple of years ago. Moreover, there's another problem, which is potentially even worse, which is loan to value. You had basically gotten two thirds loan to value a couple of years ago, but values were much higher.

1:03:13Now, values are lower because again, multiples have shrunk as the interest rates have gone up. And so the amount that you can finance is much lower. So you either have to top that off by coming out of pocket with your own equity, or you have to go to one of these mezzanine funds. So now this is sharp funds, they are total sharks and they're going to charge you not eight or nine percent, but like 15 percent. So your capital stack has basically is completely upside down. You thought that you could borrow all this money really cheaply, but now it is super expensive and this project no longer pencils.

1:03:48Meaning you're underwater from a, you've got negative leverage on the project. And so I think you're going to see, again, not just in paired office space, now in paired multi -family. And there is not, I think, a sector of real estate developer who is not in distress right now if they need financing in the next year or two. That's what do you get to do in a race from Hesh? Right. David, David, what do you do if you're long these assets? Do you just default on them and just give them back to the bank? One major real estate guy told me that the big guy is like, you know, Blackstone. The The worst you use was they are throwing their keys at the bank, meaning they are so underwater they're not even going to bother trying to figure out a workout.

1:04:30They're just going to give the key. They're just going to say to the bank, you own this asset now and they're going to move on to the next fund. That was his take at least. You sent a tweet to the group chat about the last line of hope, which was called a hope note, which is where one of these mes finance was just takes your property and then if they happen to hit your high water mark again later on that you would get that you would get some you know, itd insurance and get a little taste of the sale. Chimap, you had a tweet about the housing. Then what's your take? Well, no, my only thought around housing was that very much just supporting what Satya said, like we're in an incredibly untenable situation, mostly because as rates go up, mortgage applications go down and so what you're seeing is just like the number of people trying to transact is very small.

1:05:16And so the inventory is very small and so Saxony well, so I don't really have much to add except that When you think about where this land squarely in terms of the wealth creation that it's supposed to represent or most Americans It's a very difficult situation. It's first. This is I actually think the public like people talk about the political pressure from the White House to the Fed and I think that this actually is probably a very powerful lens with which to look at it. And the reason is because this touches all voters in every state across all political lines. And I think when people talk about is the economy doing well or is the economy not doing well, and as a result, where are your political leanings?

1:06:04I think something like this actually represents a much larger percentage of how people represent whether they feel they're doing well than any other thing. Even earnings quite honestly, because I think that a home is just such a fundamentally visceral psychological component of safety. And so a percentage, a large percentage, or well, and 60 % of people own one, and the people own one are the people who vote. So it may only be 60 % of people, but it might be 80 % of voters. I'm not sure. I think that's that could probably be very well -being true. So my only point in that was just more that this could actually, if the Fed is susceptible to political pressure, I think this is the kind of thing that pressures them to move forward The point of which they start cutting and to start to let go the release valve just because there's just too much pressure in the system If you let this talk.

1:06:54Yeah, there's talk of them doing a safety rate Hike doing another 25 bips the end of the year just to be safe and you know I think one of the things we've learned here is I don't think the data really supports that No, but but they've made poor decisions this whole time and And this is not like the feds, you know, impact with this tool is not like driving a car where you hit the accelerator, hit the brake and you get an immediate reaction. This is more like driving a train where like it takes a little while to get up to speed. And if you slam on the brakes, this thing can come off the rails. Yeah.

1:07:26And that's the scary part for me. Just to build on what Saks said, the most interesting thing about this for me is that typically we think about the fed as being very silent in election years. they really don't try to get that involved mostly because they don't want to seem like they're tipping an election one way or the other. The problem that we have is that rates are at a near -term high. The tenure is ratcheting up faster than we ever expected. It's rallied in terms of rates, meaningfully more than anybody thought since the beginning of the year. And so now we're in this odd position where will the Fed cut?

1:08:03And why will they cut? And if they cut, will they cut sooner than they would have. If they hold on, is it that they just want the country to enter a recession in which case they want to see, quote unquote, regime change? It's a very interesting set of financial and political politics that I don't think we've seen in recent years. Yeah. Well, there's a lot of real estate developers who are literally hanging on by their fingernails and they're hoping and praying for a rate cut. The problem they're going to have is that even if inflation doesn't rebound. Even if the Fed does cut rates next year, the rate that the Fed cuts is the short rate is basically the Fed funds rate.

1:08:41That's at 5 .5 % right now. Even if they cut that to call it 3 to 4 % next year, there's no guarantee that the 10 -year rate, which is what real estate developers get financed on, will move down. The 10 -year rate is what is it now at like a 4 .5 % something like that? And that rate may not come down. a lot of economists are worrying about this, and some of us are worried about this, because the federal government has such huge financing needs. And so just because short rates come down, it's no guarantee that the long rate's gonna come down. And so there may not be this relief that real estate developers are looking for next year.

1:09:14And again, there's this wall of debt that has to be refinanced. I'll give you an example from my own portfolio. I have a building just to simplify. The value is a couple of buildings, but okay. You try to get a building that's worth about $15 million. It's an office building, okay? There's a $9 million loan on it that is coming up to be refinanced at the end of the year. So I'm talking to the lender about rolling it over. And what they agreed to do here are the terms. They agreed to give me 2 .4 million out of the nine secured by the building. That's it. They wouldn't roll over the nine. They'd only give me 2 .4.

1:09:47For the other 6 .6, they wanted me to post additional collateral in the form of public securities. So they basically wanted me to fully collateralize the loan. So in other words, they're adding like a margin account on top of exactly right. That's exactly right. That's I don't mean over collateralized the building with a bunch of security. So why do you need a lot of real estate? Yeah. Yeah. They want me to personally guarantee it. So why don't you just not sell the shares? Just sell the shares and you just sort of participating for hurting your built. No, you're still participating for hurting your building.

1:10:21What the fuck? Right. No, when I took out a margin loan on his own security portfolio. So when I say I don't need this one. I'm just gonna pay it off. So I'm gonna pay off. I'm gonna put it alone and also own the building 100 % and when this credit crunches over whether it's next year or two years. Yeah, yeah. I'll just refi it then. But here's the thing. The average developer can't do that. Like how do they go out and get that extra nine million? Well, the fact let's just point out the opportunity cost to you. You could buy treasuries that pay you five and a half percent. So your actual cost on that capital that you're using to finance the building yourself to buy, you know, to buy the debt is costing you five and a half percent a year of a quarter million risk -free income for the nine million.

1:10:59It's not a pleasant situation. It's something that I can manage through. But my point is that this is something that's going to be afflicting pretty much every real estate developer needs to refinance in the next year or so. And they don't have what you have, which is the balance of the piece to be able to do that. They don't have to chip stack. And by the way, my real estate guys, tell me that this deal that I got offered is a good deal right now. It's a good deal because at least they're trying to be flexible and work with me. most these lenders, they're just like not even open for business.

1:11:27I heard there's just no bid. I mean, this guy, these guys I know that work in commercial real estate debt said though, they're putting out these syndicated loan proposals to the typical funders. And there's no bid. They're like, we'll just tell me the right. They're like, there is no right. There's no. Well, interesting news. We've been talking a little bit about, you know, these bond offerings, and the US is with the higher yields still continuing to draw buyers. Japan very soft in terms of getting people to buy their securities and 127 billion a share into funds that invested treasuries on pace for a record year.

1:12:06Bank America Corp said last week. All right, let's move on to we got Nvidia left on the docket. but we got hop in as a pig's surf. The founder sold out a lot of shares. Let's pick one of these stories. Or we got the SPF, which is gonna be big drama next year when this goes to court. Or, sacks we could go. Those other stories is not a lot of meat on them. I think let's just spend five minutes. Should we do the indictment? Giving you your red meat. Oh, me giving me my red meat. I think five minutes of you ranting and doing your TDS and then we can wrap. All right, well listen, I don't want to speak to your TSS, your Trump Stockholm syndrome, but I will say that Trump, yes, has his fourth indictment.

1:12:50You thought the hat trick was a lot, and now he's got four. Fulton County, Georgia, 13 felony counts, but this one's incredible. It's got a lot of co -conspirators, and all I'll say is there is a small town in Georgia. coffee is I think the name of it and there are a bunch of election machines and a group of this WACPAC went in there and committed a bunch of cybercrimes accordingly and it's not clear yet but when this thing goes to trial just keep an eye on that there's an incredible law fair article and we'll put it in the show notes and a podcast but I think that opening up the aperture of it is what's really interesting to me what I'm seeing is I think there's a lot of viable moderate Republican candidates that would appeal to somebody like me.

1:13:39I have voted 25 % Republican, 75 % a Democrat. I'm a moderate, but left leaning moderate. I would say on social issues, on fiscal issues. I'm definitely in the Republican camp, but I'm looking at Christie. I'm looking at the VAC. I'm looking at a lot of those kind of Republicans, even Tim Scott, and saying, you know what? Maybe that's a better choice than Biden who is very senile. And I think the Republican Party has its moment right now to just associate itself and say enough with the Michuguna, enough of Trump. And you're starting to see Pence come out very strongly, it's Axe. Vivek is still bootlicking, I think.

1:14:17And it's still like trying to get the VP spot with Trump. I think it's a huge mistake. And I think, um, Christy, and maybe it's time for your guy, DeSantis, who is in the pardon camp as well, but maybe it's time for him to, you know, maybe start criticizing him. And then I think it's time to negotiate a pardon for both Trump and under Biden. Pardon both of them, get him out of political life and let's move on as a country. I believe that you're going to see Chris Christie and the Vex surge. It's going to be a three -horse race with the Santas. And I think Trump's going to be out of the race in the next six to twelve month.

1:14:53That's just my prediction. Your thoughts? That's sex. Well, I want to give you a chance here to expound on your blue meat, not red meat for you. It's blue meat. Blue meat. Your TDS is flaring up again, Jason. I think it's using. No, not TDS. So let me ask you to expound on this part and theory, because you claim that you think that Trump is now playing for a pardon. That that's the big point. I think it's playing for a pardon, yes. The kids explain that. How do you get for your dinner? Yeah, so I think he is going to go buck wild. He's, you know, lashing out, et cetera, in the hopes that he can cause so much chaos because you're seeing him, you know, with these tweets that are kind of border lighting on violence and inciting people, gag orders, that kind of stuff.

1:15:36I think he's going to keep pushing the envelope to the point at which he breaks the Republican party makes Americans really burnt out because the Republicans can't win with him. He's got like 30 % support, however, he's not going to be a Biden. You've said that before. I think everybody knows it. He's the weakest candidate of the field and I think you guys really want to get a win and you want to move past him So I think this combination of the Republican Party Flipping on him and you're starting to see the crack, you know, and people starting to criticize him Once the evidence comes out and people see him in court and people hear the details of his criminal behavior his abhorrent behavior his behavior that Viva Governor Christie, you know either side of the aisle would never participate in And I think there's going to be kind of the United States is going to say, you know what?

1:16:23Pardon him. Blanket pardon if he just steps out of public life. And I think Biden's going to need a pardon too for Hunter. And so I think this could be the solution for everybody to move forward. It sounds crazy. But I think that the stuff that's going to come out is going to be much worse than Watergate, specifically, again, I'll reference the article of some of the behavior of his whack -pack and what they were doing, you know, in a coffee county, like the beverage, coffee counter -charger, when you start hearing what they did, you know, lying, forging documents, and basically committing computer crimes, this woman who Trump, a Sidney Powell, Trump put his fate in Sidney Powell and Giuliani, is a critical era.

1:17:08And I think it's all gonna blow up in his lap. These people were lunatics, they were committing crimes, and I think they're gonna get him. And I think he's going to need a pardon. So he's not built for jail. I can tell you Trump is not built for jail. Well, this is one problem with your theory Jason. Go ahead President can't pardon state crimes That is true. I think they could be a grand negotiation. This Georgia arrico indictment can't be pardoned Well, however, I do think that there could be a plea and so this could plea out I think they probably want to plea it out every well all people want to plea this stuff out right both sides That's all I have to go to see what you're about to talk about.

1:17:45I know. And you know what? If you want to talk about deep state conspiracies and sacks believes in this deep state conspiracy, here's a conspiracy. I just think that you free brought all four of these. I just think that you cannot think rationally when it comes to this stuff. Okay. Fine. You didn't know that Biden appointed Merrick Garland. You didn't know that these Georgia, Georgia, Georgia can't be parted in. You know, federal and the state crying. Of course I do. Of course I do. I've talked about it being not partnable before. I think there is going to be a grand reconciliation. I think everybody's gonna get together and say how do we move on and I that might even be underway right now The one thing that's definitely not gonna happen is Trump takes a plea deal.

1:18:21He's gonna find this to the better at Like what's gonna happen? I said it back in August What do you think about it? Yeah, I said it last August when they rated more a logo is that the way they're carrying on With this these law fair attacks on Trump. We now have the fourth indictment apparently is a mobster they're going after him with a Rico statue that was invented to get organized crime in mobsters. And apparently these lawyers you relied on, as Dopey as they were, apparently they're like button men for the mob who have to be entitled as well into this Rico statue. I think people can see this for what it is, which is it's a...

1:18:57I'm trying to think of the right word. I mean, it's basically law fair, right? They're bending the law in any way they can to go after Donald Trump. And I know that his behavior wasn't good in this, but I don't think it was... Do you think anything might have been criminal? no i'm i'm part of that a hundred percent you know they just from okay interesting let's look at that fox news poll where they asked to do you think the republican party let me see think the republican party is going to cut ties i think the fox news poll asked the right question which is in connection with efforts overturned twenty twenty election did donald trump do something illegal something wrong not illegal nothing seriously wrong i'm in that middle i'm in the middle bucket got i think it was wrong but not illegal got a look i think that what democrats are doing with this partisan law fair is that they are polarizing the outcomes.

1:19:42They're either gonna send Donald Trump to the big house or to the White House. That's what I said back in August last year when they raided more of law. I'm here for the White House. I'm here for the pardon. I'm here for the pardon. Do you think the Republican Party is going to support him or do you think they're gonna break ties and try to move on? And what do you think they should do? As I explained this, they see the way in which the law is being misused, is just being weaponized in a partisan way to get one of the major candidates for president. They're trying to drive him out of the election.

1:20:12I know. Do you think the Republicans are going to stand by him as these, as he goes to court and these, these trials start up? I think that there are. There's. There's. Of course, they're rallying around him. It's ensuring that he will be the nominee. Okay. I think they're going to cut ties and the Republican party is going to expel him. Okay. J. Cal. Did you not also predict that Jeff Bezos was going to run for president? I think Jeff Bezos will run in his lifetime. time and not necessarily this one. I said, you know, I think Jeff Bezos will run his lifetime. I think we, Jeff Bezos is living his best life on a yacht with, I know.

1:20:41I'm a hot friend. You know, you can't do that for a nice yacht. And then I was like 500 million. Your yacht delivers his toast every morning. Oh my God. Give me a break. Is this watch spot by your trunk? Get back in the ring. He will do. He'll do five ten years. I'm good. I'm good. Five years max. Five years max on a yacht. He get bored out of your mind. It's so crazy. my yacht has a support vehicle. His yacht has a support country. It's called Malta. Your support yacht is his thing. It's five years. That's the max you can do on a yacht. He's boated. He's been one year on a yacht. He's done. It's too boring.

1:21:20Gatsah boring. Yeah. Jake, I think this is a groundswalt to put guys with huge yachts in office. I think I don't think so. Listen to that song you play. I think Bezos. You're someone with Bloomberg trip. He's spent 100 million. That's the first question, the first debate. Boom, he's out. No, he missed his window. I would, man, Bloomberg would have been great. I got Bloomberg. Jacob, Jacob was betting on the yacht grounds well. I mean, a boy can dream. Are you telling me you wouldn't vote for Bezos if he was against? Yes. Of course you would. Would you vote for Bloomberg? Of course you would. that you want an executive.

1:22:00That's what the country needs. A professional executive. You're on ground, so I'm. Who's your non -traditional candidate, Freeberg? Who would you love most? Who's, you know, like a, you know, not going to obviously run? Or like it would be a small chance? Who would you have? I have a economist. Yeah, I'm an economist. And a economist? They're just terrible political speakers. They're just not good at that. Chimoff, who would be your wild card? Hold on, I'm texting. I'm texting Nat to bring me another class of mind. Oh, God. He's so trunnel. I think we're wrapping up. He's on glass four. Oh, he's on glass four.

1:22:30That's glass four on air. We don't know how many he pregame. Keep going, keep going, keep going. I'm gonna keep pregame. He pregame. Saks who is your wild card. If you had to pick a wild card, not in traditional, not for this election, but for an election. Somebody who is not part of his, Peter Tiel, who's gonna be picked. I have to care about that. No, no, no, no. I'm actually listening. I've supported other financially or at least verbally. R .F .K. Jr. DeSantis and Vivek. I mean, how many more candidates do I have to support? Um, well, if you got, give me a favor. And you're claiming to Trump.

1:23:04What are you gonna know? How about you talking about your guy, young people, supporting three candidates, not named Trump. But for you, it's never enough. Well, no, I want to hear you. You're throwing to the boss and say, but we'll see. Someday you will. Someday you'll stand up against him. I said, what about playing you? I just don't think it was organized crime. It wasn't a rico and diet. I want to hear you say he should drop out of the race as an influencer in the party. I want you to say you should drop out That's all I want you to say all right. Let's move on. Well, how about you? I want to talk about it.

1:23:31Yeah, no I want to talk about it on being down 40 % of it. Okay, I Stock web public That's the competitor to stripe since 2018 this was incredible since 2018. Adyen has reported every six month period of growth at these 26 % or greater and they reaffirmed a 65 % EBITDA margin and they were down at one point today 40 %

1:24:05and so if you look at Adyen what does it mean about Stripe and I think the answer is that's right at that $50 billion around $55 billion is worth 25 billion. So there's a 50 % mark down right there. That's a 25 out of 100. Bill Gurley had a great tweet on this. Multiple suppression as a bitch. Multiple. The same thing that's happening in real estate. The reason why there is. It might be a buy. The reason those multi -family developers are getting whammy right now is, again, it's not because of vacancy. Everyone wants their apartments. The problem is multiple compressions. The value is much lower, which means they can't get as much debt.

1:24:53So all of a sudden they got a pony up a bunch of equity or get expensive mezz to fill out the capital stack. This is the problem is there's multiple compression everywhere. And it's just taking time. Yes. It's taking time to work through the system. This is a train. What is right for not a car? Not a car. David, where do you buy sex? Where do you buy sex? I think you're right. I think that we have a almost perfect comp there. So yeah, you're right down 46 % year to date. That doesn't even include what happened last year. Yeah, right? Yeah, so I should do right. You 20 22 14 the thing to remember about all these businesses stripe adian paypal is that they're middlemen businesses Which by definition means that they don't have pricing power they actually have to reflect the prevalent pricing power of the incumbent even sponsors of their technology.

1:25:39So for example, if you have a deal with McDonald's, McDonald's bids you out to five different people and they pick the cheapest one. So your margins over time tend to be compressed and over time your share of profits tend to be compressed and you have to give up a lot. So how do you maintain profitability? So an odd -end maintains 65 % EBITDA margins in the face of this revenue decline. The only way they can do that is by cutting staff using more technology and creating op -x leverage that replaces what they're losing. So the real takeaway is that this is a very tough, tough business that is a race to the bottom.

1:26:19And it is a surplus business that benefits the buyer, i .e. the ubers, the McDonald's, the door dashes of the world, not the seller, i .e. the adians, the paypal's, the stripes. What's the changing quest? If you're Uber and you negotiated a deal for three years, which is right, then you go to ad yen and you negotiate your next deal and they want to win it because they need the top line revenue and now you got a dogfight, let alone all the other players who are going to do a caters. They're all race to the bottom businesses. And so tough business. Tough business. If you have a very diffused business model where you're trying to do too many things, and so as a result, you have a somewhat bloated op -ex relative to a company that's going to do a lot less but do it just much better, I think you're going to be very challenged.

1:27:02Yeah. Well, you know, this could be the buying opportunity for a lot of these equities. If you believe in them a long term or so, Dan Loeb is placing a bunch of bets. He bought some Uber he bought in video. You know, he's he's out there buying up stuff. So we'll see. Let's talk about the important. I think this is like a very interesting one. We didn't get to it last week. Pen gaming, a gambling company and gambling has become legal in the United States sports wagering has been accepted by the NBA ESPN TV shows everything. It's been incorporated into. I've been gambling for fucking 30 years. Now it's been integrated into the funniest on glass.

1:27:39All the buttons are gone. When I bought a piece of the Warriors, the funniest thing was I got a call from the NBA because you have to submit like this huge application like, you know, everything open the commando. Okay. And they knew that I was a big fucking sports better. And they were like, hey, dipshit will allow you to sports bet in Vegas. If you show the tickets, but otherwise, you know, they knew who my bookie was they were like you cannot call this guy anymore. You can't Sports it was crazy. Well, I caught call Okay, don't barcise. Don't see fucking me. I said

1:28:21Nick delete the fucking little bit of the first part. Don't do that. That didn't put the bed. That's small

1:28:31Rapid come on. We got to go. Let's go for I really think that you're I really know I love you guys so much. I really love you guys. I love you guys. I love you guys. I love you guys. I love you guys. I love you guys. I can't wait to come back. I can't wait to come back for the best. Did I? Oh, please. Bob. All right. So am I going to see you when I get to LA? I'd like to see you. Sure. I come see you. When do you get here Thursday? No Wednesday. Wednesday. Wednesday like one. Oh, yeah. I'm here. put me out the group shot with Dre. Dre shot after me. Jake Allen, I have a lunch date. We gotta go.

1:29:03Okay, so for the queen of Kenwa, the Sultan of science, the architect, the sasshole himself, and the dictator, Tamaaf. I love you guys. Drunky monkey, Tamaaf Paihapatia, I am. Undoubtedly, the world's greatest moderator. We'll see you next time. What? We'll let your winners ride. Bring man David Sattas. I'm going on a clean up. And it said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. I'm the US. I'm the queen of Kenwai. I'm going on a clean up. What? What? What? What? What? What? What? What? What? What? Besties are gone. That's why a dog can give you a wish. You're driving away.

1:29:47Sit down. Oh, man. My ham and the dash are going to meet me. We should all just get a room and just have one big hug. because they're all just like this like sexual tension but they just need to release them out.