GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?

24:02And I think that in that sense, GPT -40 is a really important innovation. By the way, the O stands for Omni channel. I think you may have said Omnivore, which is kind of funny to you. It's omnie, which means all the different media types are currently coming in, right? Like that's the difference. It's not like you just give it any image or give it a video. It's absorbing all those at the same time in parallel, I believe. That's right. So there's three big innovations with the small, right? So one is omnichannel, which means text audio, video, and images. Second, it's more conversational. Like it understands the tone of people talking and understands sort of sentiment in a way didn't before.

24:47And then the third thing, which is really important is that it's just much faster and more performant than the previous version, GPT -4 Turbo. In the speed test, they say it's twice as fast, we've played with it at glue. We can talk about that in a minute, and it feels 10 times as fast. It is much faster. But it's the combination of all three of these things that really makes some magical experiences possible. Because when you increase the speed of processing, thing. You can now actually have conversations within a much more natural way before it was the models were just too slow, so they'd be along delay after every prompt.

25:21So now, like you showed, it can do things like you point the camera at a blackboard or something with math equations on it, and it can walk you through how to solve that problem. Or two people can be talking and it does real -time translation. You know, there's that old saying that every Star Trek technology eventually becomes true. They've just basically invented the whole natural language, real -time, universal translator. Yeah. Anyway, so those are some interesting use cases. But I just think they're going to be able to unleash a whole lot of new applications. And if they're metering the usage of the models and providing the best dev tools, I think there is a bit of a spoiler.

26:00This thing is moving so fast. They're in like Leonardo DiCaprio mode every two years. They throw the old model away. Okay, let's keep sex. What about a thing? Wait, is this thing up? Did you write that ahead of time? I was in the moment. Yeah, that was good. Just one point on that is there are a whole bunch of startups out there that work creating virtual customer support agents. And they've been spending the last couple of years working on trying to make those agents more conversational, quicker, more responsive, I think their product road maps just became obsolete. Now, that's not to say there isn't more work for them to do in workflow in terms of integrating the AI with customer support tools and doing that last mile of customizing the model for the vertical specific problems of customer support.

26:55But my guess is that hundreds of millions $20 of R &D just went out the window. And probably this is the best time to be creating a customer support agent company. If you're doing it two years ago, five years ago, your work is just like been obsolete. Well, I mean, that is the thing of this pace. Like, you know, you used to have to throw away client server stuff or, you know, whatever. You had a web -based thing, you get an app out, you throw away some of the old code. But this is like every 18 months, your work has been replaced. If you're an app developer, the key thing to understand is where does model innovation end and your innovation begin?

27:30Because if you get that wrong, you'll end up doing a bunch of stuff that the model will just obsolete in a few months. I think you're totally right. I think that's such a really important observation. That's why I think the incentive for these folks is going to be to push this stuff into the open source. Because if you solve a problem that's operationally necessary for your business, but it isn't the core part of your business, What incentive do you have to really keep investing in this for the next five and ten years to improve it? You're much better off like Clarno, for example, right? We talked about the amazing improvement and savings that Clarno had by improving customer support.

28:06Release it in the open source, guys. Let the rest of the community take it over so that it's available to everybody else. Otherwise, you're going to be stuck supporting it. And then if and when you ever wanted to to switch out a model, you know, GPT -40, Ford to 40, to Claude to Lama, it's gonna be near impossible and it's gonna be costly. So I also think the incentive to just push towards open source in this market, if you will, is so much more meaningful than any other market. I mean, listen, you were there when I, I think you were there at Facebook when they did the Open Compute project and they just were like, sorry God.

28:43Just talk about, talk about torching an entire market. Explain what it is. So there is this moment where when you were trying to build data centers, you'd have these like one new rack mounted kind of like machines that you used. And what Facebook observed was there was only a handful of companies that provided it. And so it was unnecessarily expensive. And so Facebook just designed their own and then released the Spexel one. Just kind of said, here it is. And they went to these Taiwanese manufacturers and other folks and said, please make these for your cost plus a few bucks. And it was revolutionary in that market because it allowed this open platform to sort of embrace this very critical element that everybody needs.

29:24And I think there's going to be a lot of these examples inside of AI because the costs are so extreme, so much more than just building a data center for a traditional web app, that the incentives to do it are just so, so meaningful. Yeah, and I just showed it on the screen. Sax, you've actually been dancing along this line last night. I was using your new Slack killer or, quote, just around much. I feel like a Slack killer to me because I'm moving my company to it on over the weekend. We're moving to glue. Nice. And when I were doing some very, I make a mini to wet my beak on this one. What do you want me to wet your beak?

29:59I feel like a hundred bagger to me. I'm in. It's a Slack killer. That's the way I was thinking about it. We ask. because, Jake, can you do that again in crystal rock and voice, please? I get to wet my beak. It's like a hundred X. Slide in 500. Wow. Sacks tell me about product decisions. Where does the AI end? And you a product begin. Yeah. Well, it's a good point. I mean, I think where the AI ends, we want to use the most powerful AI models possible and we wanted to focus on enterprise chat. So you could think of us as for sure a slackler slack competitor. It says that slack wasn't built for the AI era.

30:42Glue is AI native. What does that mean? No channels. You know, I showed this to Timoth the first thing he said is you had me in no channels, right? People are so sick of channels. You have to keep up with all these hundreds of hundreds of channels. And the real problem with channels is there's one thread in a channel that you want to see. In order to see it, you have to join the whole channel and now you're getting all this noise. People just want the threads. So if you look at what's the chat model inside of chat GPT, it's just threads, right? You create a topic -based thread in chat GPT. The AI comes up with a name for it, puts it in the sidebar, and then if you want to talk about something else, you create a new chat.

31:18That's exactly the way that glue works. It's just multiplayer. You just put the groups and individuals you want on the thread. Let me just show you real quick. Here's my glue here, and you can see that in the sidebar, I've got all the threads that I've been involved in, and like I said, you can address them to multiple people or groups, and then you've got the chat here. Now, we've also fully integrated AI. And so Nick, who's our producer, it's just in this thread, said, at Glue AI, what countries do SACs talk about most in episodes? Episodes is a group we created to be the repository of all of the transcripts of our episodes.

31:52And so Glue did a search, and it said, David SACs frequently discusses Ukraine the most. Yeah, really? So then Nick said, be more specific about sack stance on Ukraine, Russia war. Oh boy. And basically, well, here it said here, Davis Hacks has articulated a nuance and critical perspective on the Ukraine, Russia war across various episodes, the All in Pod. Here are some key points encapsulating his stance. And it like nailed it. It's talked about prevention through diplomacy, opposition to NATO expansion, humanitarian concerns, skepticism, military intervention, peace, tilt proposal. So, you know, I'll copy and paste this on to Twitter X later today, but the point is it like nailed it across all these different episodes, and then this is a feature of glue.

32:37It provided sources, so it sites, where it got all the information from. So imagine, you know, we're doing this for the all in pod, but you could imagine that instead of it being transcripts of a podcast, it could be your work documents. You now have in your main chat the ability just to ask, Hey, at Blue AI, remind me where we left that project or tell me who the expert is on this subject matter or who's contributed to the most of this project. I've actually figured out using Blue AI who's contributed the most deal flow at craft is pretty amazing. Now let me show you like some of the answers.

33:12What's the answer? I'm not going to say here. I make it's Brian. Brian's my guy. I got to go Daniel and Brian. I want to go, that's how I get sacks on the line. Okay, you take Daniel, all higher Brian. I don't think it's a constant craft. We'll call it craft. Let me show you a couple of things. Sax, I just looked at the chat, JPT4 Omni server, and when you did that query, it actually rolled its eyes. Keep going. Okay. So we talked about how chat you with T40 understands sentiment and conversations and I think there's a really good example. So Evan, who's my co -founder at glue was just testing this for us and he asked what is each besties personality type based on conversations and episodes and first of all, it figured out who the besties are.

34:04Like we didn't program that. It just figured it out on its own, which is pretty impressive. And here's what I said about each besties personality. So it says Jason Calcanus role the moderator and entertainer personality traits Charismatic humorous lively and the glue of the group Praise often praise for his ability to make the podcast entertaining and keep the conversation flowing Jason's energy and ability to bring humor and discussions or key almost the defies role in the podcast Comments he's acknowledged for his role bringing the group together Jamal polyhapatia the visionary and hustler Personality traits insightful driven persistent Chimasa Relentless Drive and Ability to Husband and Myerbios Peers, making the corporate part of the podcast and intellectual discussions.

34:43I'll skip me, but does Freeberg, the pragmatic scientists and realists, pragmatic, methodical and a bit reserved? Oh. Freeberg's often the voice of reason bringing a scientific and realistic perspective to the discussion. He focuses on analysis logical reasoning. And then it sites where it got this from. And it says here, overall the dynamic between the four besties creates a well -rounded and engaging podcast with each member bringing their unique strengths and personality traits the table. I think that's pretty incredible. How woke is this? Have you put any rails on or is this just pure chat GPT -40 combined with the data?

35:18Yeah. Yeah. So what we're doing here is we're wrapping chat GPT -40 with blue features that we've implemented to get the most of the conversation. There's things we have to do to scope the prompt and then we're using a retrieve augmented generation service called Raggy, which does Rag is a service that basically slurps in our transcripts and makes them accessible to the AI. So that's basically the stack that we're using. But as the models get better and better, glue just gets better and better again. Can I just make a comment on this? It's just so clean. J. Cal was the key for me in abandoning Slack.

35:56He told me two or three years ago. He called me and he He said, you can tell me the exact channels. I eliminated some channels that worked. Random. There was like two or three channels that you have the random channels. Your slack instance wasn't allowed to have. And I was like, this is genius. And I went in and I was like, all of our companies should just eliminate these channels. And we could only get like 20 % or 30 % compliance. But it really started to turn me off slack because I would get caught in these threads that were just so totally useless. And I thought, why aren't people working?

36:30And this is really great because you cannot blather on about nonsense in glue, which I find really useful. Well, this is what happens when Slack, we used it at 8090 just so we were the, when we got into the early, the doctor big. The doctor big. People start to think Slack is the job and replying to Slack's and having conversations is the job when there's actually a job to be done. There's a job to be done. Yeah, and so it's important. And what I liked about this implementation, SACS, was it's like the ability to make a feed or a data source inside of your communication platform. So the fact that you imported all of the episodes and the transcripts is great.

37:07But what I want is like our HubSpot or our Cell CRM, I want our Zendes, I want our LinkedIn jobs and our LinkedIn job applications, I want our notion, I want our Coda to each have the ability. And when I was using it last night, what you do is you use the at symbol to evoke and to summon in a way. It's like somebody beatled you so you summon your AI, but then you tell it What day to set you want to go after so you say you know at AI? Let's talk about I don't know How do you manage your deal flow a craft you use software like CRM software to manage deals Brian? We just do it on a clue, but we do it all in glue.

37:48So it's ready right there, but you're right so so The first thing that glue AI has access to is all of your chat history, which is amazing because you get like You know, that we can look at all your attachments and we've got, I think, six integrations that launch a little bit more. So yeah, like all of your enterprise data will be there. In the short term, you're right, you have to sum in the repository by app mentioning because the AI needs a little bit of help of where to look. But in the future, it's gonna figure it out on its own. So it's gonna become more and more seamless. But it'll insert itself.

38:16So we have a discussion about sales and then you might have a sales bot that says, hey, by the way, nobody's called this client in three months. Well, that's where I wanna go with it is I call that promptless, which is I want the AI just to chime in when it determines that it has relevant information and can help the team. Even if it hasn't been summoned yet. But we need some model improvement for that, frankly, I mean, we'll be able to get there by GPT -5, but that's totally worth this head. I'll show you just one more fun example if I could. Let me just show you this. So I asked it to write a letter to Lena Conn to be a guest at the All in Summit.

38:52it. And I told it, mention positive things we've said about Lena Khan in episodes of The All In Pod. And so it wrote this letter, dear Chair Khan, we hope this message finds you well on behalf of the host, The All In Pod. We are excited to send an invitation for you to speak at the upcoming All In Summit. And then it says, in our conversations, we have frequently highlighted your impressive credentials and the impactful work you've undertaken. For example, in episode 36, we can all use your trailblazing role. And so the letter was able to quote episodes of the All in Pod just without anyone having to go do that research and figure out what would be the best because I told it, only say positive things, don't say anything negative.

39:33And then it said Warmer guards and it said who the four besties were again. We never told it who the besties are. We just said, write us a letter. So it's pretty incredible. Now this is an example of the All in Pod, Think about any work context where the AI has access to your previous work documents. It's pretty amazing What it can do. Well, I mean it is kind of in the name like this is glue put you together and slack is where you slack up In these all sense the brands give you a little bit of a tip. We should have seen it coming with slack Totally We have a breaking news story. It's a breaking news story to all in exclusive today on the program.

40:12I got breaking news coming in Friedberg your life's work Saxxed it his product review now it's your turn for you. Burke. We got breaking news coming in I did promise you that when oh hollow decides to come out of stealth and Explains what we've done and what we're doing I Would do it here on the only pod first Before the all in exclusive so basically by the time this pod airs we're gonna be announcing saying what O 'Halo has been developing for the past five years and has had an incredible breakthrough in, which is basically a new technology in agriculture. And we call it boosted breeding. I'm going to take a couple minutes just to talk through what we discovered or invented at O 'Halo and why it's important and the kind of significant implications for it.

41:05But basically, five years ago, we had this theory that we could change how plants reproduce. And in doing so, we would be able to allow plants to pass 100 % of their genes to their offspring rather than just half their genes to their offspring. And if we could do that, then all the genes from the mother and all the genes from the father would combine in the offspring rather than just half the genes from the mother and half the genes from the father. And this would radically transform crop yield and improve the health and the size of the plants, which could have a huge impact on agriculture. Because yield, the size of the plants ultimately drives productivity per acre, revenue for farmers, cost of food, calorie production, sustainability, etc.

41:53So this image just shows generally how reproduction works. You've got two parents. You get a random selection of half of the DNA from the mother and a random selection of half the DNA from the father. So you never know which half you're going to get from the mother or which half you're going to get from the father. That's why when people have kids, every kid looks different. And then those two halves come together and they form the offspring. So every time a new child is born, every time a plant has offspring, you end up with different genetics. And this is the problem with plant breeding. Let's say that you have a bunch of genes in one plant that are disease resistant, a bunch of genes in the other plant that are drought -resistant, and you want to try and get them together.

42:32Today, the way we do that in agriculture is we spend decades trying to do plant breeding where we try and run all these different crosses, find the ones that have the good genes, find the other ones that have the good genes and try and keep combining them, and it can take forever and it may never happen that you can get all the good genes together in one plant to make it both disease resistant and drought resistant. So what we did is we came up with the theory that we could actually change the genetics of the parent plants. We would apply some proteins to the plants and those proteins would switch off the reproductive circuits that caused the plants to split its genes.

43:09And as a result, the parent plants give 100 % of their DNA to their offspring. So the offspring have doubled the DNA of either parent. You get all the genes from the mother, all the genes from the father. And finally, after years of toiling away at trying to get this thing to work and all these experiments and all these approaches, we finally got a to work. And we started collecting data on it. And the data is ridiculous. Like the yield on some of these plants goes up by 50 to 100 % or more. Just to give you a sense, like in the corn seed industry, breeders that are breeding corn are spending $3 billion a year on breeding.

43:45And they're getting maybe one and a half percent yield gain per year. With our system, we are seeing 50 to 100 % jump in the size of these plants. It's pretty incredible. Here's an example. This is a little weed that we that you do experiments with in agriculture. culture, called a rabidopsis. So it's really easy to work with. And you can see that what we have on the top are those two parents, A and B. And then we applied our boosted technology to them and combined them. And we ended up with that offspring called boosted A, D. So you can see that that plant on the right is much bigger. It's got bigger leaves.

44:13It's healthier looking, et cetera. Free vocabulary question. Does that mean that the boosted one has twice the number of chromosomes as A and B? Exactly right. So is that like a new species then? Yeah. So it's survived with twice in our chromosomes. Yeah, it's called polyploidy. So we actually see this happen from time to time in nature. For example, humans have two sets of chromosomes, right? So does corn, so do many other species. Somewhere along the evolutionary history, wheat doubled and then doubled again and you end up actually in wheat having six sets of chromosomes. Wheat is what's called a hex -apploid.

44:52Potatoes are a tetraploid. They have four sets of chromosomes. And strawberries are an octoploid. They have eight. And some plants have as many as 24 sets of chromosomes. So certain plant species have this really weird thing that might happen from time to time in evolution, where they double their DNA naturally. And so what we've effectively done is just kind of applied a protein to make it happen and bring the correct two plants together when we make it happen. And so this could only happen for a plant, right? This could never happen with an animal. It wouldn't work in animals. It works in plants.

45:22And one way you can think about plant genetics is all the genes are sort of like tools in a toolbox. The more tools you give the plant, the more it has available to it to survive in any given second, to deal with drought or hot weather or cold weather, et cetera. And so every given second, the more tools or the more genes the plant has that are beneficial, the more likely it is to keep growing and keep growing. And that plays out over the lifetime of the plant with bigger leaves and bigger, you know, growth taller. But more importantly, if you look at the bottom, the seeds get bigger and in most crops what we're harvesting is the seed That's true and you know corn and many other crops and so seeing over a 40 % increase in seed in this little weed Was a really big deal But then we did it in potato and potato is a crazy result potatoes the third largest source of calories on earth And so we took two potatoes that you see here in the middle a B and CD We applied our boosted technology to it to each of them and put them together and you end up with this potato a B CD, that's the boosted potato.

46:21And as you can see, these were all planted on the same date. And the boosted potatoes much bigger than all the other potatoes here, including a market variety that we show on the far right. That's what's typically grown in the field. Now, here's what's most important. When you look under the ground and you harvest the potatoes, you can see that that AB potato only had 33 grams. CD had 9 grams. So each parent had 33 and 9 grams potato. But the boosted offspring had 682 grams of potato. The yield gain was insane. And so you could see this being obviously hugely beneficial for humanity. You know, potatoes being the third largest source of calories, Indian potato farmers are growing one acre of potato in India they eat potato two meals a day.

47:05In Africa potato is a food staple. So around the world we've had a really tough time breeding potatoes and improving the yield. With our system we've seen incredible yield gains in potato almost overnight. And the other two, the potatoes. Those are normal sized potatoes that you see there. Those are like, you know, table potatoes. Basically, that looks like a russet potato right there. That's like a normal sized russet potato. But it's starting as like a little, it starts like a little creamer potato basically and you blew it up into a russet potato as I was. Yeah, so the genetics on AB, you can see there, like little purple tiny little purple potatoes, the genetics on CD or like these little white, you know, tiny little ball potatoes.

47:42But when you put those two together with boosted And you combine all the DNA from A, B, and all the DNA from CD, you get this crazy high yielding potato, ABCD, which by the way is higher yielding than the market variety that's usually grown in the field on the far right. So why not just grow a russet potatoes then? We are. And so we're working on doing this with russet, we're working on doing this with every major potato line. Sorry, the improvement you'll see is actually yield. So it's not the size of the potato, it's the number of potatoes that are being made. And so you'll see... Or have to acre or something like that.

48:12Like the data. You know projects in the 60s and 70s. Shmop, you know how you can tell freeberg's onto something here. You got David sacks to pay attention during it. You got to be a decor in sacks is awake. Sacks like, you know, I might be talking about you interrogating the potato lines. I've never. What's going on? I think it's interesting. But so have you tried these potatoes? They taste different. Oh, no, they're awesome. Yeah, they're potatoes. And we do a lot of analysis. You're not going to sprout any horns yet or anything like that. No, no. You got me. I mean, again, one of the other advantages of the system that we've developed, let me go back here and I just want to take two seconds on this.

48:49One of the other things this unlocks is creating actual seed that you can put in the ground in crops that you can't do that in today. So potatoes, the third largest source of calories, but the way we grow potatoes, you guys remember the movie The Martian, you chop up potatoes and you put them back in the ground because the seed that comes out of a potato, which grows on the top in the flower, every one of those seed is genetically different because of what I just showed on this chart, right? You get half the DNA from the mother, half the DNA from the other. So every seed has to different genetics.

49:18So there's no potato seed industry today. And potato is like a hundred billion dollar market with our system. Not only can we make potatoes higher yielding and make them disease resistant, what we also make is perfect seed. So farmers can now plant seed in the ground, which saves them about 20 % of revenue, takes out all the disease risk, and makes things much more affordable and easier to manage for farmers. So it creates entirely new seed industries. So we're going to be applying this boosted technology that we've discovered across nearly every major crop worldwide. It'll both increase yield, but it will also have a massive impact on the ability to actually deliver seed and help farmers and make food prices lower.

49:59Is it more expensive? No, it's actually cheaper. So, So, do you need more water? Less water, less land, less energy. Do you need more fertilizer? Fertilizer usually scales with biomass, but these sorts of systems should be more efficient. So fertilizer use per pound produced should go down significantly as we get to commercial trials with all these stuff. And we're doing this across many crops. So there's a lot of work to do in terms of like how do you scale production in the field? Tell us about the patents and how important patents play a role in this, because isn't it like like one of Monsanto's big things like they just go and sue everybody into the ground or whatever?

50:42Like I'm gonna answer you one second. I'm just gonna switch my head to it. Just I, wow. We went from SACs as bots to freeberg's crops. I'm glad we're doing him second because all of a sudden like group chat doesn't seem very important. Yeah, wow. He just saw the whole Ukraine crisis here. I would be able to grow wheat in the desert and in the race. He solved the world food problem. Yeah, Sacks. What did you do for the last six months? We made our price chat a little better, but. We added AI to enterprise jet. We cleaned up your slack. So yeah, when you invest, we've invested a ton of money. This was stelt for five years.

51:17We put a ton of money into this business. So when you invest like, I mean, in the 50, North of 50, yeah. 50 million five years and you don't have a product in market yet. Wow, that's some detail. Well, we actually have some product. Yeah, so I haven't talked about the way we've been making money in some of the business we've been doing. Okay. Let me just make sure this is like clear. So that last photo you showed with the different types of potatoes, you had created the super huge ones, but you're saying that the yield benefit here is just you create a much bigger, harder -or -plant that's capable of producing more potatoes.

51:52But the size of the potatoes doesn't change. You can control for that when you breed. So the selection of what plants you put together in the boosted system allows you to decide you want small, medium, large, that's all part of the design of which plants do you want to combine. Okay, because your goal is not to turn like a russet potato into like a watermelon or something like that. No, no, the goal is to make more russet potato per acre so that we use less water, we use less land, farmers can make more money, people pay less for food, that's the goal. And so it's all about yield, it's not about changing the characteristics.

52:21There are some crops where you want to change the characteristics like you might want to make bigger corn kernels and bigger cobs on the corn, which is another thing that we've done. And that's actually been published in our patent. And the reason, by the way, I'm talking about all this is some of our patents started to get published last week. And so when that came out, the word started to get out. And that's why we decided to get public with what we've done because it's now coming out in the open. You mentioned something briefly there about where different crops can be planted.

52:53You available in very specific parts, you know, north of the equator, the campaign jungles, campaign, obviously polar or desert extremes. So if you're successful, what would this do for on a global basis, where these crops are made? Because that's a whole discussion about you praying in the question, totally. The wheat belly of Europe, the cradle of wheat. It's a great question. I'm so glad you asked it because that's one of the key drivers for the business is that we can now make crops adapted to all sorts of new environments that you otherwise can't grow food. Today, there's close to somewhere between 800 million and a billion people that are malnourished.

53:31That means they are living on less than 1200 calories a day for more than a year. But on average, we're producing 3 ,500 calories per person worldwide in our ag systems. The problem is we just can't grow crops where we meet them. And so by being able to do this sort of system where we can take crops that are very drought resistant or can grow in sandy soil or very hot weather and adapt cooler climate crops to those regions. But through the system, we can actually move significantly where things are grown and improve food access in regions of how? Freeberg, when you look at a potato, how do you figure out what part of their DNA is the drought resistant part?

54:10Yeah. And then how do you make sure that that's turned on? So even if you inherit that chromosome, is there some potential interaction with the generally if we can so these are what are called markers Genetic markers and so there are known markers associated with known phenotypes a phenotype is a physical trait of a plant and so we know lots of markers for every crop that we grow Markers for disease resistance drop resistance markers for big plants short plants and so what we do is we look at the genetics of different plants that we might want to combine into the boosted system and we say these ones have these markers, these ones have these markers, let's put them together and then that'll drive the results.

54:48One of the other interesting things we're seeing, which I didn't get too much into in the slides, it's not just about combining traits, but it turns out when you add more genes together, biology figures out a way to create gene networks. These are all these genes that interact with each other in ways that are not super well understood, but it makes the organism healthier and bigger and live longer. This is like when you bring, like, why much are healthier and live longer than purebred dogs because they have more genetic diversity. So there's a lot of work now in what's called quantitative genomics where you actually look at the statistics across all the genes, you use a model, and the model predicts which two crosses you want to make out of hundreds of thousands or millions of potential crosses that the AI predicts.

55:37Here's the two best ones to cross because you'll get this growth or this healthiness. So how do you want to make money free, Brig? Are you going to sell the seeds? Are you going to become the direct farmer? Are you going to become food as a service? Like, how do you make the most money? We're not going to farm. Farmers are our customers and so they're different ways to partner with people in the industry who already have seed businesses Or already have genetics and help them improve the quality of their business And then there's other industries like in potato where we're building our own business of making potato seed for example So every crop and every region is actually quite different.

56:14So it becomes a pretty complicated business to scale We're in the earlier days. We're already revenue generating. I would like a sweeter blueberry No comment, no comment. Yeah. I get tilted by the quality of the Driscoll's blueberries. Let me tell you something about the Driscoll's blueberries. Also, the Driscoll, I've had only one batch of a Driscoll's strawberry that was just off the charts and every 19 ,847 other batches I bought have been total sh**. Yeah. Now, you want the European small ones or the Japanese ones from Hawkeye Desses? Because they're rich and sweet and they're not these like monstrosity of giant flavorless strawberries.

56:51What's that about? Seedless? Could you do a seedless mango? Yes, no. Cut it. She just cut it. Oh my god, how great would that be? Spoon out of work per bite on a mango. It's like the worst ratio. Oh my god. Well, somehow we made it about us. Yeah, no, no, look. I think that's, it is all about you guys. Now, tell us about the blue bear. Sorry. Well, every year, Driscoll's puts out a special labeled package called Sweetest Batch. and they just had the sweetest batch of strawberry and blueberries. I don't know if they're so in the store, but they only last for like a week or two. And that's the best genetics, only growing on a small number of acres.

57:28Really incredible. I'm going to go in as soon as this is done. See if they have it. So I got it a few weeks ago. It's quite delicious. Anyway, let's just say we know the berry market very well. My co -founder, CTO, Judd Ward, who's brilliant idea, boosted breathing was many years ago, who I met because they had a New Yorker article on Judd. I cold -called him and said, hey, will you come in and give us a tech talk. We started talking and Judd came up with this idea for boosted breeding. And so we started the business with Judd and Judd, ran molecular breeding at Driscoll. So we have a lot of Driscoll's people that work at O 'Hallow.

58:00We know that the market really well. Can you go back to the patent stuff like, are you? Or the Sunsheed person? So we spent 50 million bucks on, you know, plus on this business today. So we have filed for IP protections that people can't just rip us off. But I would say, I think that the real advantage for the business arises from what we call trade secrets, which is not just about taking patents and going out and suing people. That's not a great business. The business is how do you build a moat and then how do you extend that moat? The great thing about plant breeding and genetics is that once you make an amazing variety, the next year the variety gets better and the next year the variety gets better, and so it's hard for anyone to catch up.

58:39That's why seed companies generally get monopolies in the markets because farmers will keep buying that seed every year, provided it delivers the best genetics. And so our business model is really predicated on how do we build advantages and modes and then keep extending them, rather than try to leverage IP. So I'm a big fan of building business model advantages. This is going to be a credible sacks. If you think about, you know, geopolitically, what's going on in Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, Afghanistan, those places have tens of millions of people, I think hundreds of millions collectively who are at risk for starvation.

59:12If you could actually make crops, that could be farm there, Friedberg, you would change humanity. And then all these people buying a farmland in America, that could devalue that farmland if that wasn't as limited of a resource, yeah, Friedberg? Like, no, I think, so first of all, like farmland in America is mostly family -owned. That's 60 % rented, actually. So a lot of families own it, and then they rent it out because they stop farming it. But the great thing that we've seen in agriculture culture historically is that the more calories we produce, the more food we produce, the more there seems to be a market.

59:46It's like any other economic system, wheat and rice. Yeah. So those are calorie sources one and two, and there's certainly opportunity for us to apply our boosted systems there. The big breakthrough with potatoes, we can make potato seed using our boosted system in addition to making better potatoes. McDonald's is the largest buyer of potatoes, yeah. So in the US, 60 % of the potatoes go to French fries and potato chips. McDonald's buys most of the fries. PepsiCo, under Frito Lay buys most of the potato chip potatoes. 40 % are table potatoes. In India, 95 % of the potatoes are table potatoes. They're eaten at home.

1:00:23And the Indian potato markets, three to four times as big as the US potato market. In Brazil, it's 90 % table potato. So all around the world, potatoes, different. on the US is, you know, unusually large consumers of French fries and potatoes. I speak on behalf of Jay Kalin. I said, we will gladly invest the million out of 10 cap in both of your businesses. Absolutely. Yes. We will work our way into it. Jay Kalin, I will do the deal. Why does the money? Well, why the money? A little million to each of you guys out of 10 cap. Thank you. Absolutely. You're in. It may not be a 10 cap though, but yes.

1:00:57breaking news. Jamal and Jekal have secure at the back. There's a breaking news. Jamal and Jekal have secure at the back from the best he's actually doing work. Yeah. Well, I appreciate you guys letting me talk about it. I'm excited. I'm excited to hear the both of you. I love it. Yeah. Yeah. Building stuff is hard. There's always risk. It's a lot of work and a lot of setbacks. But man, when you get stuff working, it's great. He's doing the things we do best. Freeberg is solving the world's hunger problem and I'm making I'm cleaning up your slack

1:01:34All right Stanley Druckenmiller has got a new boyfriend Druckenmiller's got a boyfriend and his name is heavy air and they've alope to Argentina Druckenmiller professed his love Tom Cruise on Oprah's couch in a CNBC interview this week. He only free -marked, quote, "'Leader in the world right now, bizarrely is an Argentina of all places.' He cut Social Security at 35 % every came to office. They've gone from a primary deficit of like 4 % to a 3 % surplus. They've taken a massive hit in GDP, basically a depression for a quarter, and his approval rating has not gone down.' truck and Miller has explained how he invests in Argentina after seeing Malay's speech at Davos, which we covered.

1:02:21Here's a 30 -second clip, play the clip, Nick. By the way, do you want to hear how I invest in Argentina? It's a funny story. I wasn't at Davos, but I saw the speech in Davos and it was about one o 'clock in the afternoon in my office. I dialed up perplexity and I said, give me the five most liquid ADRs in Argentina. It gave me enough of a description that I follow the old Soros rule and invest and then investigate. I bought all of them. We did some work on them. I increased my positions so far. It's been great, but we'll see. Yeah, that's quite interesting. He, uh, quick note, you hear Dr. Milner mention ADRs.

1:02:59For those of you who don't know it, I was one of them. They stand for American depository receipts. It's basically a global stock offer on a US exchange to simplify things for investors. Yeah, I mean, he didn't sign a prenup here. He just went all in and he bought the stock, Jamaat. And then he's going to figure it out later. Tell us your thoughts on this love affair, this bromance. There's a great clip of Millay. He goes on this talk show in Argentina and the talk show host. She's just so excited and greets him and then they start making out. What have you guys seen this once? There just has to be a full on.

1:03:36Full on French kissing each other. It's hilarious. Yeah, I mean, like Soros has been very famous for this invest in investigate thing. It's like a smart strategy for very, very liquid public market investors that have the curiosity that he does. I mean, I don't have a bunch of reaction to that. I think that the thing with Argentina that's worth taking away is when you spent decades, about and misallocating capital and running your economy into the ground. The formula for fixing it is exactly the same. You cut entitlements and you reinvigorate the economy. And so the thing we need to take away is if we don't get our s*** together, that's probably what we're gonna have to do.

1:04:22Sacks, the influence of Malay on American politics, will there be any? It seems like he has paralleled what Elon did at Twitter, Facebook, and Zuck did a Facebook. Do you think that this, you know, experiment he's doing down there of just cutting staff, cutting departments, will ever make its way into American politics? Probably not. I mean, not until or forced to. But what Millay did, he comes in and they've got a huge budget deficit it and they've got runaway inflation and they're debasing their currency and does practically overnight. He dislashes government spending to the point where he has a government surplus.

1:05:02And then as soon as he gets credibility with the markets, that allows them to reduce interest rates and inflation goes away and people start investing in the country. Magic. It's magic. There is a path. It's obvious. Listen, I mean, you can't run deficits forever.

1:05:22You your spending exceeds your income, eventually you gotta pay it back or you go broke. And the only reason we haven't gone broke at experienced hyperinflation is because we're the world's reserve currency. So there's just a lot of room for debasement. And there's not a ready alternative yet. I mean, everyone's trying to figure out what the alternative will be. So we've been able to accumulate more and more debt, but it's reaching a point where it's sustainable. And what we've already seen is that the feds have to jack up interest rates from very low, practically nothing to 5 .5%. And that has a real cost on people's well -being.

1:05:56Because now your cost of getting a mortgage goes way up. I mean, mortgage rates are over 7 .5%. Now? Yeah, 6, 7%, depending on how much net worth and your credit rating. Right. And so it's much harder to get a mortgage now. It's harder to make a car payment if you need to borrow to buy a car. And if you have personal debt, the interest rate's going to be higher. The inflation rate actually doesn't take into account any of those things. Remember Larry Summers did that study where he said the real inflation rate would be 18 % or would have peaked at 18 % if you included a cost of borrowing. That's why people don't feel as well off as the unemployment rate would normally suggest.

1:06:35So people are hit really hard when interest rates go up in terms of big purchases they need to make with debt. And then of course it's really bad for the investment environment because when interest rates are really high that creates a higher hurdle rate and people don't want to invest in risk assets. And so eventually the pace of innovation will go down. And Druckermiller made this point. In his next set of comments, he said that treasury is still acting like we're in a depression. It's interesting because I've studied the depression and you had a private sector crippled with debt basically with no new ideas.

1:07:11So interventions policies were called for and were effective. He said that the private sector could not be more different today than it was in the Great Depression. The balance, he's refined, they're healthy, and have you ever seen more innovation ideas that the private sector could take advantage of, like blockchain, like AI? He says, all the government needs to do was get out of the way and let them innovate and said they've spent and spent and spent. And my new fear now is that spending and the resulting interest rates on the debt that's been created are gonna crowd out some of the innovation that otherwise would have taken place.

1:07:42I completely endorse Dr. Miller's view of biomex and actually, I mean, this is what I said way back in 2021. Victory lap. Here we go. Well, Dave, Zach's victory lap. We need a little graphic for that. Drug and Miller use the word bi -nomics and said, I give these guys an F because they're still printing money and spending money like we're in a depression, even though we're in a referring economy. And when they started doing this back in 2021, you know, I tweeted by nomics equals pumping trillions of dollars of stimulus into a referring economy. I'm not gonna pretend like I know what's gonna happen next, but never tried this before.

1:08:14What happened next was a lot of inflation, and that jacked up interest rates. Like we're in a even Keynesian economics, the reason why you have deficit spending is because you're in a recession or depression. So use the government to stimulate and balance things out. You don't do deficit spending when the economy is already doing well. So this is spending. There's no reason for it. It's like showing up to like a party that's going crazy and being like put a gasoline on the fire. Yeah, I mean more importantly, it should limit the approval or action of certain programs that you might otherwise want to do in a normal environment, but in an inflationary environment, you don't have the flexibility to do them.

1:08:56Student loan forgiveness is a really good example. It's now the time, of course not, to do student loan forgiveness, or do we wait for inflation to temper a bit? It's now the time, you know, so there's just a lot of these examples that it actually the opposite should be true. But none of all of those things get you votes. Before we move on from this, look, what we have coming out of Washington here is a contradictory and therefore self -defeating policy. You've got the Fed jacking up rates to control inflation. You move across town and you've got Capitol Hill on the White House spending like there's no tomorrow, which is inflationary.

1:09:27Why would you do both those things? Choose what your policy's going to be. It's like driving with your foot on the brake and the gas at the same time. It's not a great idea for the car. Let me just make one comment, Jake, how before we move on about the truck? Dr. Miller investment statement. Of course. And I just wanted to say, like, I think what it highlights about Dr. Miller and call it a rift in investing philosophy or skill is the difference between precision and accuracy. What I mean by that is precision really references that you do a lot of detailed analysis to try and make sure you understand every specific thing that is going right or could go wrong.

1:10:02But the problem, and so that means you, for example, might do a ton of diligence on a company and make sure you understand every dollar, every point of margin, all the specifics of the maturation of that business and where they are in their cycle. But you can be very precise, but be very inaccurate, for example, if you miss an entire trend. Someone could invest in Macy's back when Amazon was taking off and have done a lot of precise analysis on Macy's margin structure and performance and said, this is a great business. But they missed the bigger trend, which is that e -commerce was gonna sweep away Macy's and consumers were simply that's not possible in the analysis that they were doing.

1:10:40Let's be honest free bird. Nobody can make that stupid of a trade to say Macy's versus Amazon over the next 10 years. Yeah, and so let's end it. And Jake, I want to show that. No, no, no, no, do not pull the tiger. Let's not get into it with other five gestures. The first spread trade in history. Yeah, let me just finish the statement. But the other one is being accurate. And accurate means you get the right bat, the right sentence, the right friend. The problem with being accurate, you could have said in the year 2000, hey, the internet's going to take off. And you could have put a bunch of money in, but the problem was you were right.

1:11:15You just had to have the necessary patience. And so accuracy generally yields better returns, but it requires more patience because because you can't necessarily time how long it will take for you to be right. So a guy like Drunken Miller is making an accurate bet. He bets correctly on the friend on where things are headed. He doesn't necessarily need to be precise, but he has the capital and his capital structure that allows him to be patient to make sure that he eventually gets the return. And to build on your thoughts, having watched this movie a couple of times, and I overthought the Twitter investment as but one example, I had the opportunity to invest in Twitter when and it was like a single digit millions company.

1:11:55And I just thought, you know what? This thing is only like the headline, and I told them, like it's the headline, it's not like the entire blog post, it could be a cacophony of idiots. This thing is gonna be chaos, and I was right, but I was wrong, right? Great bet, but my wrong analysis. Right. And so you can add precision to other aspects, like when you sell your shares or when you double down, but you have to get the trend, right, which is Evan Williams, great entrepreneur, Jack Rade, entrepreneur, Twitter taking off like a wee He just make the bet, right? And the problem is you knew too much about journalism.

1:12:28You knew too much about the space they were trying to disrupt. And that could be a mistake. Corridor PayPal, none of us knew anything about payments. That was one of the reasons we were successful. All the payments experts told us it couldn't be done. Right. So that happens a lot. I had never even, I didn't even know what a Facebook was when I joined Facebook. It's an American college phenomenon. No, sirs, you don't have that in Canada. But you knew Zach and you saw some growth charts and you saw some precision in his ability to build product. And that's the way to go. The great thing about network effect business is there's a trend line that sustains because it builds if it's an appropriate network effect.

1:13:03So you can be accurate about buying into the right network effect business. You don't need to use all of this diligence to be perfectly sound around the maturation of the revenue and the margin structure and all that stuff as long as the trend line is right. And you're willing to be patient to hold your investment. I think Dr. Miller's point is incredible. He took a look. He very quickly made a macro assessment. From a macro perspective, what Millay is doing is significantly different than what we're seeing in any other emerging market, let alone mature market with respect to fiscal austerity and appropriateness in this sort of inflationary, global inflationary environment.

1:13:38And he said, you know what? I don't see any other leader doing this. This is a no brainer bet. Let me make the bet. And as long as he's willing to hold this thing for long enough, eventually the markets will get there and call it a spread trade against anything, he'll be proven right. Well speaking, so not to, but speaking of bets, Jake, how you told me this week that you just met your largest investment ever. Tell us about that. Yeah, so I've gotten very lucky now because a lot of my founders from the first couple of cohorts of investing I did when I was a secoya scout have come back and created second and third companies.

1:14:11And so you know that happened with TK, Uber and the clock kitchens that happened with Raoul from Report of then superhuman and then it happened recently just in the past year my friend Jonathan who's the co -founder of thumbtack Asked me to come to dinner and he said hey, you know you were the first investor in thumbtack We'd be the first investor in our next company Athena and I said sure what do you do and explain to Tim in it? And then we put a seven figure bad in which is rare for us as a seed fund right normally our bet sizes are a hundred K to 50 You know it's a fifty million dollar fund.

1:14:41Why did you do it? Yeah, it's very simple. It's the fastest growing company I've ever seen, and I'm including Uber in that. It has been growing at, you know, a rate that I'll just say is faster than Uber and Robinhood when we were investing in them, tens of millions of dollars. It's a very simple concept. When Thumbtack was building their marketplace, they used researchers in places like Manila, et cetera, in the Philippines, knowledge workers. And what they realized was the point 1 % of those knowledge workers were as good or better than, say, Americans at doing certain jobs. And so they've created this virtual EA service.

1:15:21You can go see it at AthenaWOW .com. And we now have two of them inside of our company. It turns out Americans don't want to do the operations role. So it's kind of like AWS. You just give them $36 ,000 a year. They give you essentially an operations or an EA. And they have ones that are kind of cheap of staffish and This company is growing like a weed. So I am working with them on the product design as well. So imagine having you know two or three of these incredibly hardworking people who are trained with MBA class level curriculum they spend months trading these people up they pay them two or three times what they would make at any other company and then they pair them with executives here.

1:16:06And it's kind of been an underground secret in Silicon Valley because it's only by invitation right now because they can only train so many people. But if you've tried to hire an executive assistant, I don't know if anybody's tried to do that recently. You cooked me up so I will be guinea picking the service. Yes. Soon. And I have two of them. And so it is just the greatest that you can have in operations for people powered by AI tools as well. Yeah. So that's the kind of secret sauce here is they're training them and they watch you work and then they will learn how you do your job and then how quickly you can delegate and get stuff off of your plate is the name of the game.

1:16:43So we have an investment team with researchers and analysts in it, we have a due diligence team and then you have like executive functions in our fund. They have now started shadowing, you know, highly paid Americans in an investment firm, ours, and then train them up. Now our due diligence, our first level screening, and our tracking of companies is being done by these assistants for what I'll say is a third to a fourth of the price I was paying previously. So what that does in an organization is we're just delegating away and then moving our investment team to doing in person meetings and doing higher level stuff.

1:17:20And so you're 80, 90, so at 80, 90, we have this funny thing where we've made it a verb. Whenever you see somebody doing high quality work at a quarter to a tenth of the cost. We say, you just 80 90 did. Correct. So you're 80 90 in the investment team. I'm 80 90 in the investment team. And you know what? It was scary as hell for them. Because you're like, am I going to leave you job? It's like, no, you now get to instead of doing a check and call once a month, you can do a check and call every other week or every week. Or instead of doing 15 first round interviews a week, you can do 25 because you have this assistant with you doing all the repetitive work.

1:17:55The way that companies will work in five and ten years. I don't think guys any of us are going to recognize what it's going to look like. Yeah. So anyway, I mean, like watching SACs as demo earlier, how much progress and how seamless that product works with the features it has enabled by the underlying models, you just get to thinking how all of these vertical software applications become completely personalized and quickly rebuilt around the AI. Totally. It's so obvious. Imagine how long it would have taken John to write a letter to Lena Con to like if we said John invite Lena Con but be sure to reference all the nice things we said about her on episodes of the pod.

1:18:36I mean 10 hours of work. You gotta go find the episode. Yeah, listen to him to figure out what the best quotes are. You got it. You got it done in five seconds. It's incredible. Totally. And this is building that same sort of capability into a very specific vertical application that's specific to some business function. and you can probably spend a couple minutes or an hour building that function, and then it saves you hours a day in perpetuity. I think that's why these tools companies or the tools products that Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and a few others are building are actually incredible businesses because so many enterprises and so many vertical application builders are going to be able to leverage them.

1:19:17I got right their entire business functions. I got myself and my co -founders at 8090. We get the stream of emails of companies that are like, or people that are like, we have this product idea, or we have this small product. One of the emails I got, this is crazy, was from a guy that's like, oh, we've 8090 Photoshop. So like we have like a much, much cheaper version of Photoshop and the guy was doing like a few million bucks of ARR and growing really nicely. But then it turned out that somebody saw that and then 8090 did. So that there's a lot for that think and so to your point, freeberg none of these big company standards.

1:19:54Chance. Yeah. Yeah. It's every meeting. Not because they're not because the products aren't good, but like, Jake, I was going to go off an experiment with this. Saxon to go off and build a product. You know, as every time that you're at a boundary condition, we're all going to explore, well, maybe we could do this with AI. Maybe we shouldn't hire a person. Not because we're trying to be mean about it, but it's because the normal, natural thing to do. And the op -ex of companies is just gonna go down, which means the size of companies are gonna shrink, which means the amount of money you need is gonna go down.

1:20:27And that's just gonna create the ability for these companies to sell those products cheaper. So it's a massive deflationary tale here. We had the same thing happen with compute, and now it's happening inside of organizations. I wrote a blog post about this on my subs that called ADD. This is the framework I came up with. I told my entire team, look at what you got done every week and I want you to ask three questions. How can I automate this? How can I deprecate this? How can I delegate it? And you know, the automate part is AI and what you're doing, David. The delegate part is AthenaWow .com and then the deprecate is, hey, just be thoughtful.

1:21:03What are you doing that you don't need to do? And that's 80, 90, something like there are things inside these products that you don't actually need. What's the core functionality of the product? you know, make it as affordable as possible. And then what's gonna happen for people who think this is bad for society, you've got it completely wrong. We're gonna have more people be able to create more products and solve more problems. The unemployment rate's gonna stay very low. We're just gonna have more companies. So the idea like there was somebody who was working on very small software. I wanna get pitched on very niche ideas.

1:21:36I wanna create something where people can find people to play pickleball with, right? Like a pickleball marketplace. place. Now that didn't wouldn't typically work because you would need $5 million a year to build that product. But if you can build it for $500 ,000 a year, well now you've only got to clear that number to be profitable. So a lot more smaller businesses, a lot more independent. All these little niche ideas will be able to be built. And a VC who says, I'm not giving you $5 million to build that app will be like, but I will give you $500 a day. And that's what I'm seeing on the ground in startups, the same startups that had a request of $3 million in funding five years ago, or now requesting 500 to a million.

1:22:13It's deflationary all the way down. Did you guys get to be incredible? Did you see the Google thing? Did you guys see the Google AI Gemini stuff? ChatGPT Omni Launch. At the same time, or perhaps strategically right before Google dropped its latest AI announcements at IO. The biggest announcement is that they are going to change search. This is the piece of the puzzle on the kingdom that they have been very concerned with and they're going for it the new product and they have like 20 different Products you can see them at labs .google where they put all their different products But this is the most important one they call it AI overviews Basically, it's perplexity for most users by the end of the year.

1:22:54They're going to have this Here's how it works and you can see it on your screen if you're watching us go to YouTube Here they give an example. How do you clean a fabric sofa? This normally would have given you 10 blue links here. It gives you step -by -step guide with citations and links. So they're preempting the issue of people getting upset. And as I predicted, they're going to have targeted ads. Here's the things you need in order to clean your couch. You can only use this if you're using your Gmail account. If you use a domain name on Google Docs, it won't work there. So go to labs. Google.

1:23:27But they're doing citations. And I think that we're going to see a major lawsuit here. Those people who are in those boxes are going to look at the answer here and realize, maybe they don't get the click through and that this answer was built on that. And now we're going to have to have a new framework. There's going to need to be sacks a new company that clears this content so that Google can do answers like this. The workflow stuff in Gmail also kicked ass. The demo that they showed was you get a bunch of receipts and the person giving the demo, She said something to the effect of well, wouldn't it be great if like you know the AI assistant were able to find all the receipts and then Aggregated them and put them in a folder and then also actually generated an expense report or like a spreadsheet on the fly it It's crazy.

1:24:13Yeah, I got to say I think that it's free to change your mind And so it's good to do that. Oh, and I think that Chimath an a rare moment of reflection might do a, are we gonna have a re -underwriting? Is this a re -underwriting? I changed my mind all the time. I just, I mean, you know, because I'm, I'm, I'm a gentleman, breaking news, japan, re -underwriting his Google train. Sorry, I know, your ears out. I think the Google thing is pretty special between last week's announcement of isomorphic labs, which let's be honest, that's a, that's just a multi -hundred billion dollar company. So you're saying there might be many, Think about it this way, right?

1:24:53Multi -billion dollar opportunities sitting there dormant inside a Google that AI unlocks. Look at a company like royalty pharma. So if royalty pharma with a pretty, it's a phenomenal business run by a phenomenal entrepreneur, Pablo Lagaretta. But what is that business? That's buying two and three percent royalties of drugs at work. And you can see how much value that those guys have created, which is essentially 90 % EBITDA, margin business. It's outrageous because they're in the business of analyzing and then buying small slivers. I think something like isomorphic ends up being of that magnitude of margin scale, but at an order of magnitude or two orders of magnitude higher revenue.

1:25:31So if you fold that back into a Google, if you think about what they're doing now on the search side, these guys may be really kicking some ass here. So I think that the reports of their death were premature and exaggerated. Absolutely. And the report of their death freeberg was based upon people don't need to click on the ads. But as I said on this very podcast, my belief is that this is going to result in more searches and more knowledge engagement because once you get how to cook your steak and get the right temperature for medium rare, it's going to anticipate your next three questions better.

1:26:09So now to say, hey, what wine pairing would you want with that steak? Hey, do you need steak knives? And it's just going to read your mind that you need steak knives and schmalt likes to by steak knives, but maybe you like to buy mock meats, whatever it is, it's going to drive more research and more clicks. So while the monetization per search may go down, we might see many, many more searches. What do you think, Freyberg? You work there. And when we look at the future of the company and the stock price, Nick will pull it up. Man, if you had held your stock, I don't know. Did you hold? I think I bought some original stock.

1:26:44You're in the worst way. I saw it. Oh no, I sold all my stock back when I started climate because I was a startup entrepreneur or needed to live. So which, you know, I, I, I, I, I, I did the math on it. It was pretty, it'd be a, it'd be worth a lot. It would be worth billions or tens of billions. No, no. Would it have been a billion or no? No, no. Okay. You know, I was not like a soup. I was not a senior exact for anything. I think what you said is probably true. So that's a creative. I think the other thing that's probably true is a big measure at Google on the search page in terms of search engine performance was the bounce back rate, meaning someone does a search.

1:27:27They go off to another site and then they come back because they didn't get the answer they wanted. And then the one box launched, which shows a short answer on the top, which basically keeps people from having a bad search experience because they get the result right away. So a key metric is they're going to start to discover which vertical searches, meaning like hey, cooking recipes, that kind of stuff like referencing travel. There's lots and lots of these different types of searches that will trigger a snippet or a one box that's powered by Gemini that will provide the user a better experience than them jumping off to a third party page to get that same content.

1:28:03And then they'll be able to monetize that content that they otherwise were not participating in the monetization of. So I think the real victim in all this is that long tail of content on the internet that probably gets cannibalized by the snippet one box experience within the search function. And then I do think that the revenue per search query in some of those categories actually has the potential to go up, not down. Explain. Explain. Give me an example. You keep people on the page so you get more more search volume there. You get more searches because of the examples you gave. And then when people do stay, you now have the ability to better monetize that particular search query because you otherwise would have lost it to the third party content page.

1:28:44So for example, selling the steak knives is another, you know, it's kind of a good example or booking the travel directly and so on. So by keeping more of the experience integrated, they can monetize the search per query higher. And they're going to have more queries. And then they're going to have the quality of the queries go up. So I think it's All in there's a case to be made and I haven't done a spreadsheet analysis on this but I guarantee you Going back to our earlier point about precision versus accuracy My guess is there's a lot of hedge fund type folks doing a lot of this precision type analysis Trying to break apart search queries by vertical and trying to figure out what the net effect will be of having better AI driven One box and snippet and my guess is that's why there's a lot of buying activity happening in the stock right now And I think they're probably all missing to a lot of these call options like isomorphic labs.

1:29:36I can tell you meta and Amazon. What meta and Amazon do not have an isomorphic lab and Waymo sitting inside their business, that suddenly pops to a couple hundred billion of market cap. And Google does have a few of those. So other bets could actually pay off these are more. There may be, I mean, there's Calico. No one talks about Calico. I don't know what's going on over there. I have to extension. Yeah. Let me get sacks involved in discussion sacks. When we show that example, it's obvious. Google is telling you where they got these citations from and how they built there. Patuclean your couch, how to make your steak.

1:30:05Those, they were in a very delicate balance with content creators over the past two decades, which is, hey, we're going to use a little bit of your content, but we're going to send you traffic. This is going to take away the need to send traffic to these places. They're going to benefit from it. To me, this is the mother of all class action lawsuits because they're putting it right up there. Hey, we're using your content to make this answer. Here's the citations. We didn't get your permission to do this, but we're doing it anyway. What do you think is the resolution here? Does all these content go away because there's no model, does Google try to make peace with the content creators and cut them in or license their data?

1:30:42What's going to happen to content creation? When somebody like Google is just going to take wire cutter or these other sources that are not behind a payroll and just give you the goddamn answer. Well, look, this is the same conversation we've had two or three times where we're going to need the courts to figure out what fair use is. And depending on what they come up with, it may be the case that Google has to cut them in by licensing by doing licensing deals. We don't know the answer to that yet. By the way, I do know a founder who is already skating toward the puck is going and creating a rights marketplace so that content owners can license their AI rights to whoever wants to use them.

1:31:19I think that could be very interesting. I was out. I had a call with him yesterday and you and I will be on that cap table together once again. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So I don't want to say who it is because we can't let him announce his own round, but only participating in the seed round. Look stepping back here It's interesting if you go back to the very beginning of Google the OG Google search bar had two buttons on it, right? Search and I feel lucky. I feel lucky was just tell me the answer just take me to the best result And no one ever did that because it kind of sucked Then they started inching towards with one box, but it wasn't you didn't get the one box very often And it's very clear now that Gemini -powered one box is the future of Google Search.

1:31:57People just want the answer. I think that this feature is going to eat the rest of Google Search. Now, it's a little bit unclear what the financial impact of that will be. I think like you guys are saying, there'll be probably more searches because search gets more useful. There's fewer blue links to click on, but maybe they'll get compensated through those relevant ads. Hard to say, you're probably right that Google ultimately benefits here. But let's not pretend this was a deliberate strategy on their point. They got drag kicking and screaming into this by innovation and perplexing other companies.

1:32:32Yep, they had no idea. They got caught completely flat -footed and they've now, I guess, caught up by copying perplexity and sucks perplexity. I think they're kind of screwed now, unless they get. Yeah, it's over. And an acquisition deal. Exactly. but Proplexi came up with the idea of having citations in your... Having a comprehensive search result, yeah, which was something... Search result with citations and related questions and they did it extremely well and quite frankly all Google had to do with copy them now they've done that. And I think it does look like a killer part of that. And by the way, this was all something that I saw 15 years ago when I did Mahalo, which was my human power search engine, and which I had copied or been inspired by a neighbor and down in Korea.

1:33:15They were the first ones to do this. You know it, Chum -Hup, because there were only three of our markets where Google couldn't displace the number one. Korea, Russia, Japan. Russia had, what was the Russian search engine? God, I can't remember it now. Japan had Yahoo Japan, which Masa Yoshisan had carved out. It wasn't a part of it, and they were loyal to that. And very nationalistic Koreans, and very innovative folks at down in neighbor. just me search that was so amazing. You do a search and you'd be like here's music, here's images, here's answers, here's Q &A, it was awesome. But you know, it just shows you like you need to have a lot of wear with all and timing is everything as an entrepreneur.

1:33:55My timing was 10 years too early and the wrong technology. I used to humans not AI because AI didn't work 15 years ago. One thing I would say about big companies like a Google or Microsoft is that the power of your monopoly determines how many mistakes you get to make. So think about Microsoft completely missed iPhone. Remember, and they screwed up the whole smartphone mobile phone era. And it didn't matter. It didn't matter. Sacha comes in, blows a thing up to a $3 trillion public company. Same thing here with Google. They completely screwed up AI. They invented the transformer, completely missed LLMs.

1:34:30Then they had that fiasco where they had... Black George Washington. Black George Washington doesn't matter. They can make 10 mistakes, but their monopoly is so strong that they can finally get it right by copying the innovator and they're probably going to become a $5 billion company now. Sorry, $5 trillion company. It reminds me, you know, the greatest product creation company in history. I think we all know who that was and take a look down memory lane. Here are the 20 pick is felt Apple products of all time. The Apple Lisa, Macintosh Portable. We all remember the Newton, which was their PDA, the 20th anniversary Macintosh Super Sexy.

1:35:08People don't remember They had their own video game. I was at a conference a couple years ago that Jeff Davis spoke at I think he's given this talk In a couple other places you could probably find it on the internet But he talks about Amazon's legacy of failure And how they had the fire phone and the fire this and the fire that and he's like our job is to fail big swings We have to make these blunders, but what makes us successful is that we learn from the failures and you know, we make the right next decision Yeah, but I say if you're a startup and you make big failures, you usually got a business.

1:35:42One and done. Yeah, but this is how you state, but this is how you state competitive. If you're a big founder led tech company, the only way you're going to have a shot at staying relevant is to take big shots that you're going to fail at. I just don't know. You can't just high -five to you. This would do things that you're going to fail at. Right. Remember this boombox? This is one of the huge different screen startups and big companies is that big companies can afford to have a portfolio of products, they have a portfolio of bets, some of them will work and that keeps the company going. Startup really has to go all in on their best idea.

1:36:13Totally. I always tell founders just go all in on your best idea. They're always asking me for permission to pivot and I always tell them, do go for the best idea. Don't hedge, don't try to do five things at once, just go all in on your best idea. Yeah. And if it doesn't work out, you reboot and start with a new cat table. Go live. And so to speak another amazing episode is in the can. The boys are in a good mood. You got your great episode. No guests this week, just all bestie all the time. And very important. The March to a million continues halfway there. You got us, their fans. We hit 500 ,000 subbies on YouTube, which means you all learned a live Q &A with your besties.

1:36:56Come and act ya. In the next couple of weeks, we're gonna do it live on YouTube. So if you're not one of the first 500 get in there now so you get the alert we're gonna take your questions live It's gonna be dangerous any questions no questions Who knows what could happen on a live show and by the way, I just want to let you know that Phil Helm you breaking news Phil Helm you with the Drey Montgomery and just resigned from open AI We didn't get into that but the open AI resignations continue Phil Helm you as tweeted. He's no longer with open AI You guys like my baby casual ear pink sweater It's pretty great.

1:37:30We're going to get summer chumatsu and now the buttons coming down. Are you going to go and linen? When is linen chumacho up? The unbuttoning is about to happen in the next two or three weeks. The great unbuttoning. This is how you know it's kind of like Groundhog Day. You know that summer's here when you lose chumass buttons. That's Memorial Day. When after Memorial Day, the button can come down. Yeah, we're going to go three buttons down. I'll still be on my black tea. The sax will still be blue blazer blue shirt red tie and Freeberg in fields of gold look at freeberg in fields of gold taking us out staying fields of gold coming at you two for Tuesday See all the next all the pod for the Sultan of science The rainman did a sax and chairman dictator.

1:38:14I am the z100 morning zoo DJ. We'll see you next time. Love you boys

1:38:30We open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. I'm going to the US. I'm going to the US. What? What? What? What? What? What?

1:38:48What? Oh man, my hamlet is actually meaty. We should all just get a room and just have one big hug or two because they're all just like this like sexual tension that we just need to release that house. What you're that big? What you're here for? Big what? We need to get merch. I'm going all in.

1:39:16I'm going all in. And now the plugs, the all -in summit is taking place in Los Angeles on September 8th through the 10th. You can apply for a ticket at summit .allinpodcast .co. Scholarships will be coming soon. You can actually see the video of this podcast on YouTube, youtube .com slash at all -in, which is search all -in podcast and hit the alert bell and you'll get updates when we post. And we're going to do a party in Vegas. My understanding when we hit a million subscribers and look for that as well, you can follow us on xx .com slash the all in pod. TikTok is all underscore in underscore talk, Instagram, the all in pod.

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1:40:37You can listen to my other podcasts. This week in startups to search for it on YouTube, where you're favorite podcast player, we are hiring a researcher, apply to be a researcher doing primary research and working with me and producer Nick, working in data and science and being able to do great research, finance, etc. All in podcast .co. Slash research. It's a full time job working with us the besties. And really excited about my investment in Athena, go to Athena Wow. See you in a wow .com and get yourself a bit of a discount from your boy, J .K .O. AthenaWow .com. We'll see you all next time on the All -In podcast.