Iran's Breaking Point, Trump's Greenland Acquisition, Solving Energy Costs, Billionaire Tax Backlash

17 Jan 2026 · 1 h 11 min · 28 chapters

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In short

Podcast Notes: All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Episode Title

Iran's Breaking Point, Trump's Greenland Acquisition, Solving Energy Costs, Billionaire Tax Backlash

Episode Overview In this episode, the hosts discuss various pressing global issues including potential regime change in Iran, Microsoft's approach to energy costs associated with data centers, a significant compute deal by OpenAI, the backlash against billionaire wealth taxes in California, and the implications of Trump's aspirations regarding Greenland.

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Key Topics

  1. Iran's Breaking Point: Regime Change Coming? (4:18)
  2. Background: Iran has been governed by an Islamic regime since the 1979 revolution, with Ali Khomeini in power since 1989.
  3. Current Situation:
  4. Protests have erupted as citizens, mainly young people, face rampant inflation and food shortages exacerbated by international sanctions.
  5. Average income is approximately $200/month, with high living costs leading to civil unrest.
  6. Predictions:
  7. David Friedberg predicts an inevitable break in civil society due to economic pressures.
  8. Discussion on the potential for U.S. military action to support a revolution, focusing on strategic targets like IRGC sites.
  1. Solving Energy Prices (14:28)
  2. Microsoft's Initiative:
  3. Microsoft has announced it will pay its own energy costs related to data center operations and will not accept tax breaks or discounts.
  4. The move aims to alleviate local concerns about rising electricity bills due to data center energy consumption.
  5. Future Steps:
  6. Discussion on creating a large tax equity fund to help homeowners transition to solar and storage solutions to reduce grid reliance.
  1. OpenAI's Compute Deal with Cerebras (31:18)
  2. Partnership Details:
  3. OpenAI signed a deal worth over $10 billion with Cerebras for computing capacity.
  4. Cerebras creates specialized chips designed for AI workloads.
  5. Implications for the Industry:
  6. The hosts speculate on a renaissance in silicon development and the potential for smaller companies to thrive in the semiconductor space.
  1. California's Billionaire Tax Backlash (35:09)
  2. Wealth Tax Proposal:
  3. Discussion around a proposed wealth tax in California, perceived as a direct attack on private property rights.
  4. Debate about whether the tax will make it to the ballot, with opinions suggesting it could galvanize significant backlash among wealthy individuals.
  5. Predictions:
  6. The hosts express concerns about broader implications for property rights if such taxes are adopted.
  1. Trump's Greenland Acquisition (56:13)
  2. Strategic Importance:
  3. Trump's interest in acquiring Greenland is discussed in the context of national security and resource control amid shifting geopolitical landscapes.
  4. The hosts explore historical attempts to acquire Greenland and the potential economic benefits.

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Key Takeaways

  • Economic Instability in Iran: A growing youth population desiring modernization is at odds with an oppressive regime facing severe economic challenges.
  • Microsoft's Energy Commitment: A proactive step towards corporate responsibility in energy consumption and local community engagement.
  • AI and Silicon Renaissance: Growth potential exists in smaller tech firms specializing in AI hardware, indicating an evolving landscape in the tech industry.
  • Billionaire Tax Backlash: The proposed wealth tax raises serious constitutional questions and highlights the tension between wealth redistribution and property rights.
  • Geopolitical Considerations: Trump's ambitions with Greenland underscore the ongoing strategic considerations of Arctic resources and shipping routes.

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Closing Remarks The episode encapsulates a variety of topical global issues, encouraging listeners to contemplate the implications of economic policies, geopolitics, and corporate responsibility. The discussions highlight the interconnectedness of technological advancements and geopolitical strategies in shaping the future.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Davos Invitation and Plans

0:45 to 4:20

Discussion about attending Davos, interviews, and networking opportunities.

“need of content so they've offered all in a stage to interview people all right so we got stage microphone you're going i'm going up president trump is giving a major talk there on wednesday I understand.”

Current Situation in Iran

4:20 to 9:36

Analysis of the protests in Iran, economic conditions, and potential regime change.

“There have been massive anti-regime protests over the last month.”

Implications of Iranian Protests

9:36 to 14:06

Discussion on the potential outcomes of protests in Iran and regional consequences.

“That always seems to be one of the best ways to handle this is to increase the economic pressure, as you pointed out, Freeberg.”

Legacy of Dictators and Trump’s Impact

14:06 to 14:28

Discussion on the implications of dictatorships and Trump's legacy.

“freed in first quarter of 2026 i mean what does that even mean for his legacy this could be the defining moment of his legacy yeah means there's only a few of us left jason dictators yes he'll be coming for you, Shavon.”

Microsoft's Data Center Energy Strategy

14:29 to 16:28

Analysis of Microsoft's approach to energy consumption in data centers.

“We've been talking about this energy needs for data centers for a long time now.”

Beyond Microsoft: The Future of Energy Solutions

16:29 to 17:27

Exploring additional measures needed to tackle energy issues in data centers.

“The reality is that we have a whole new way of living that is drawing more and more electrons.”

Innovative Energy Storage Solutions

17:28 to 19:30

Discussion on energy storage alternatives and their impact on energy supply.

“You do that by paying for them to get solar and storage.”

Regulatory Challenges in Power Generation

19:31 to 22:26

Addressing the regulatory barriers faced by data centers in energy generation.

“Are you talking with Chris Wright and overlapping in terms of the communication here?”

Water Usage Myths in Data Centers

22:27 to 24:17

Debunking misconceptions about water usage in modern data centers.

“But clean water and the cost of clean water increasing for a local population is the issue and the misperception there.”

Creating a Sustainable Energy Future

24:18 to 28:00

Exploring the potential for a new tax equity fund to subsidize energy costs.

“In fact, it brings down prices for everyone because scale creates economies of scale.”
Show all 28 chapters

The Future of Residential Electricity Costs

28:00 to 29:50

Exploring the potential for making residential electricity free through corporate support and investments.

“terawatt hours to catch up to China, we actually get a two for one, the consumer homes don't have that anxiety anymore.”

OpenAI's New Compute Deal with Cerebras

29:50 to 31:20

Delving into OpenAI's significant compute agreement with Cerebras and its implications for AI.

“And over the next decade, if we can do that, not only do we help Americans with their wallet, but we actually can enable a distributed investment scheme in American energy production.”

Revolutionizing AI Inference

31:20 to 33:10

Discussion on how Cerebras is changing AI inference with its innovative chip technology.

“OpenAI is buying compute capacity from Cerebras.”

Taxation and Property Rights Debate

33:10 to 41:50

Engaging in a crucial debate about asset taxation and the implications for private property rights.

“What I can tell you is that OpenAI is aggressively trying to diversify so that they have multiple paths of inference available.”

Potential for Wealth Tax Legislation

41:50 to 42:00

Speculating on the likelihood of a wealth tax making the ballot and its chances of passing.

“You only need about 8 million bucks to collect the signatures, 850 ,000 signatures.”

Union Dynamics and Political Leverage

42:00 to 44:30

Explore the role of SEIU and potential implications of their political actions.

“Furthermore, if you're the guy running the SEIU, I understand his name is Dave Regan.”

Taxation and Property Rights in California

44:30 to 47:20

Discuss the potential implications of a new tax on private property rights in California.

“Because that has nothing to do with how persuasive you and the opponents of BTA are.”

Future of Union Initiatives and Tax Structures

47:20 to 50:00

Evaluate the future landscape of union initiatives and the potential for new tax laws.

“They didn't wet the other unions' beaks.”

Economic Ramifications of State-Level Taxation

50:00 to 52:50

Analyze the economic impacts of asset seizure taxes on a national level.

“Yes, they're going to start chasing you around the country.”

California's Fiscal Challenges and Union Power

52:50 to 56:00

Discuss the financial struggles of California and the influence of government worker unions.

“So there's not an issue here of California not collecting enough taxes.”

Trump's Greenland Offer: A New 51st State?

56:00 to 57:15

Explore the implications of Trump's approach to acquiring Greenland and its strategic importance.

“This has been something Trump's been talking about for years.”

The Case for Greenland: Strategic and Economic Benefits

57:16 to 59:31

Discuss the potential benefits of acquiring Greenland, including resources and geopolitical significance.

“So maybe you could just talk about why this is, and again, you're not speaking for the administration, it's not your lane, but why is Greenland so important?”

The Idea of a New Frontier: Exploring Alternatives

59:32 to 1:01:09

Debate the concept of establishing a new frontier as a refuge from current political pressures.

“But security guarantees, maybe other benefits for the great kingdom of Denmark, there could be a strong alliance and partnership for the United States.”

The Need for a Release Valve in Society

1:01:10 to 1:03:49

Examine the historical need for a 'release valve' to alleviate societal pressures and challenges.

“they get overwhelmed with the votes and the elected officials that will fight against them, before this all happens, it's important to think about carving out a legal territory.”

Government Complicity in Fraud and Mismanagement

1:03:50 to 1:09:08

Highlight concerns over government inefficiencies and the impact of systemic fraud across agencies.

“And that's what they do is they take things that were created by great people and they subvert them and they seize control.”

Casual Banter and Humor

1:10:00 to 1:10:10

The hosts engage in light-hearted and humorous exchanges about their lives.

Discussion on Relationships and Tension

1:10:10 to 1:10:29

The conversation turns to topics of relationships and the dynamics between people.

Merchandise Ideas and Closing Remarks

1:10:29 to 1:10:41

The hosts discuss potential merchandise ideas and wrap up the conversation.

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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00All right, everybody. Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world, your favorite podcast. the all in podcast with me again the core four the original four david friedberg tamath polyhapitiya david sacks we're here and there's a lot going on in the world gentlemen how's everybody's week going anybody got big plans for next week jacal your ship has finally come in your invitation was not lost in the mail what well you have been invited to davos what i gotta get my guitar oh davos kumbaya don't blow i'm gonna bring my guitar don't blow it explain to the audience what's happening here sax what's happening well as it turns out one of the houses there is in need of content so they've offered all in a stage to interview people all right so we got stage microphone you're going i'm going up president trump is giving a major talk there on wednesday I understand.

1:01And so there is a stage and microphone. So I canceled my ski trip in Japan to go to Davos. Even Jason. Even J.Cow. Even J.Cow is at Davos. Even J.Cow. I mean, it's pretty funny. I was invited to be part of that. Like, you probably got this too, Chamath, back in the day. Like, they're young leaders for$50 ,000 a year. So we're going to be doing some interviews. and if you want to be interviewed by me and or sax at the usa house email jason at all in.com if you're there if you have ideas for speakers and we're going to be booking in real time i haven't been to davos i guess the way it works is there's a bunch of houses so countries have houses and then companies sponsor houses and there's stuff happening there there's like stages set up and there's constant interview so you know i've got a bunch of requests basically everyone's interviewing everyone else at Davos.

1:58Does that make sense? I mean, it's like all the attendees are just constantly interviewing each other. It's like the podcast circuit. All these podcasters now have run out of guests, so they just interview each other in a giant circle. That's what it is. It's literally going to be heads of state interviewing heads of state. Yes. Everyone's just interviewing everybody. Hey, welcome to the J.D. Vance show. I'm J.D. Vance. With me on the show today is Mondami. Welcome to the show. Everybody's doing collabs there. The snake has eaten its tail, but I think we'll have a fun time. Me and Sax are going, and we're going to tear it up and have a good time.

2:32The USA house, I understand, is like on a main street there. And my understanding is I was talking to the CEO of McKinsey, who's one of the partners, I guess, who sponsors a lot of the stuff at Davos. Look at you rubbing elbows with the global elite, talking, texting, with the deep state. This is fantastic. Yeah, no, I'm going. It's a deep state. It's my deep state era going into 2026. And there's supposedly what the vibe is, Sax, is people just kind of walk around the main town and they'll just pop into USA House and they network, have a coffee. They take a coffee. And then what we've got to do is have producer Lisa say, hey, do you listen to All In?

3:16Hey, great to see you. Would you like to talk to David and Jason? They're going to be sitting over here and just me and Dave are going to hold court. It's going to be fun. I'm looking forward to it. kind of like a little man on the street we might you know I've done a little vox pop in my deck and we might get a wireless microphone and go on the street and see what happens. This is going to last five minutes until people hear that J. Cal is being obnoxious and asking tough questions J. Cal, people don't know this but J. Cal does an incredible Triumph the Insult Comic Dog impression oh my god if you went around Davos is triumphed.

3:54Oh, dude. Oh, yes. It looks like it's the prime minister of Germany. I understand. You turned off your nuclear at the right time. How's the data center project going? I heard the 15-year-old Greta is doing your energy conservation and your strategy. How's that going for you? It's not even going to last half of you. We're going to be detained at Davos. All right, I guess we got to talk about what's going on in Iran. Regime change could be happening. There have been massive anti-regime protests over the last month. As everybody listening probably knows, Iran has been ruled by an Islamic dictator since the 1979 revolution.

4:38Ali Khomeini is in power since 1989. And if you want to understand why this is happening, there's probably two data points that you should know in the short term uh last you know six seven years inflation has been bonkers if you think you know seven eight nine percent inflation during covid was acute and and you know 2.6 now people complaining about uh take a look at this chart boys uh it's it's been 30 percent on average since 2019 due to sanctions obviously those things uh can work there's been food shortages people in the streets long term here's a chart and this is from 2020 so you can add six years to the chart you're seeing here but uh there's a lot of young people in iran and the populace is made up of a lot of 20 somethings and 30 somethings and they have starlink and they have access and vpns and so they want to be part of the future they want to modernize sex this was a point of contention last year, we were talking about interventions going on, you know, foreign wars and your concerns about that.

5:52This one is from the bottom up. So I think that makes it quite different. Yeah. Well, look, this is a highly dynamic situation. I don't really want to comment on something except to say that I trust President Trump to make the right decision and handle it. As I understand it, the protests are either fizzling out or being cracked down on at this point. And I tend to think it's dying down, but I'm not sure. And it's a dynamic situation. I really look, the problem is whenever I comment on something like this, it ends up being Trump advisor, David Sachs says, whatever. And the reality is I'm only involved on two issues and this isn't one of them.

6:30So I don't really think I should be commenting. Yeah. Freeberg, you've been talking about this, and I think it was part of your predictions from the show last week, the prediction show. Here's your poly markets, and then I'll let you give your thoughts on it. Khomeini out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31st. That was up around 27 % and now has dropped to a 10 % chance. And will the regime fall before 2027? $2.6 million in volume, 37 % chance. It's been up there as high as, I think, 50-some-odd percent. And this is before the end of the year. So obviously a breaking news type situation by the time we tape on Thursdays, as everybody knows, I'm out on Fridays.

7:16So this could be radically changing, but just broad strokes. What are your thoughts here, Freberg? I mean, I think it's inevitable that there's a break in the country because of the effect of sanctions. The average income is about 200 bucks a month in Iran. And the price of food is roughly the same as the U.S., maybe a little bit less than the U.S. I mean, a combo meal at McDonald's, I just pulled this up in Tehran, is four bucks equivalent. So again, if you're making$200 a month and it's four bucks to go to McDonald's, costs catch up pretty quickly. I think that ultimately is what breaks civil society, is when people can't afford the things that they need, and people have no choice but to stand up.

8:02And an oppressive system, an oppressive regime can keep people down for so long until they're starving or they can't get access to things like medical care. And these are the sorts of things that ultimately lead to these moments. So it seems like it's an inevitability. The United States put a lot of pressure on the regime in Iran, and it seems to be starting to break. The key question that everyone's asking is, is Trump going to act in supporting the revolution, which theoretically, I would imagine would involve attacking IRGC sites, which are the Revolutionary Guard that are sort of the internal security force that maintains the regime's control over the people.

8:42And if they take out IRGC sites, will that actually result in the people being free? And what's the transition plan? This is obviously a very messy situation. Reza Pahlavi is in Europe. And he said he's ready to come back and he is the Shah's son. And if he comes back, How are you going to give him influence and control? This is the same question that recently came up in Venezuela. There is a very large infrastructure that needs to be overseen of government agencies. And, you know, you can't bring an outsider in and just plug them right in to take over everything. It's a very difficult transition.

9:15And that's when things fall apart, when people steal stuff, when things get turned off. So how do you maintain kind of the core functioning of society without breaking it by bringing someone new from the outside? That's where this gets very messy. So I don't know what's ahead. Yeah, and the strikes didn't happen last night. Besant announced some increased sanctions. That always seems to be one of the best ways to handle this is to increase the economic pressure, as you pointed out, Freeberg. And for people who are not familiar, Iran is a large country. It's the second largest in the Middle East behind Egypt, I believe, and close to 100 million people, 95 million people, I think, live in Iran.

9:56this would have a dramatic impact on the region if there was a transition here obviously you've heard about uh different houthis and hezbollah being supported funded housed in iran so this would be quite dramatic hanchum off if this turned over uh even if it's a 10 to 30 chance this were to happen any thoughts on what that would mean you know we've been watching this modernization of the Middle East and just Saudi, UAE, Qatar, everybody having a seat at the table, increasing influence, increasing modernization in those countries. What would this do in the region? It's really hard to tell. It's an incredibly vibrant people.

10:39If you look at the Iranian diaspora, they're really a dynamic part of every culture they join. If you know Persians in LA or Persians. I mean, you and I play poker with the diaspora in LA. These are the most fun people in Westwood. They're the greatest. They're the greatest people. They're shutting the club down. The last people out at the game. Yeah. They're really great. The thing that I would say is that I don't think that you can paint the Middle East with the broad brush here. It's a very different culture than the other Middle East countries. It's a fundamentally different religion. It's a fundamentally different language.

11:10So I would just say that I don't know what's actually going on in Iran. There's been so much information containment that I take Sax's point of view, which is I think the only people in the United States right now that have an accurate sense are probably the military and intelligence apparatus of the United States. And the rest of us are underreacting or overreacting to small pieces of information without really knowing the context and the mosaic of the whole. In a breaking news environment, it's best to do some research. and uh yeah be humble and thoughtful by the way your positions yeah the crazy thing about this if you shift away from iran was specifically the information warfare game is totally different so what did you have you had spacex enable starlink over iran and then there was the attempt to use that mechanism to get information out to fill in the mosaic right so yeah was what was happening 90 % with what was happening 10 %?

12:11Was there counter revolutions that were supportive of Khomeini? None of us knew anything because you would see these snippets and it was very hard to actually triangulate. Then you have this entire information channel get shut down. And you had all kinds of blocking mechanisms that essentially drove the packet loss down to like 80 90%. And it's just important to understand that is the generation of warfare and information that we are going to see in every conflict going forward, especially when you have something as ubiquitous as Starlink and other things in the sky to help you get the information out, you're just going to see these tactics increase.

12:45And I don't know if you guys ever saw it. Anthony Bourdain, rest in peace, did a really great Parts Unknown in 2013 or 14. That's the best Anthony Bourdain I've ever watched. Yeah. If you want to see Iran, it looks so amazing. Look at the Anthony Bourdain Parts Unknown in Tehran. It looks like a party. Well, yeah, and young people there. Total vibe there. Yeah, young people are like really living their life under this oppression. And you really get the sense that they're not much different than us or any other folks in the world. And the journalists who took them around were later detained. And I really respect Andy Bourdain for even doing that episode, man.

13:25They took a lot of risk doing that. Remember, there was a period where one of the most popular accounts on Instagram was the rich kids of Tehran. Right. If you follow them, you'd be like, man, this looks like L.A. or New York. Yeah, Hong Kong. Yeah. London. Yeah. Yeah. Dubai. Great potential there. Yeah. Rooting for the people of Iran to have their freedom. And yeah, I actually, and I'll say, Sachs, I trust Trump in his targeted neocon era. I'm trying to phrase it properly here to not offend anybody, but I think he's really - Trump doctrine. well i mean he he i think doesn't have a problem using our military and the force we have to take a dictator out if it doesn't cause world war three and if two dictators and two societies are freed in first quarter of 2026 i mean what does that even mean for his legacy this could be the defining moment of his legacy yeah means there's only a few of us left jason dictators yes he'll be coming for you, Shavon.

14:28All right. Microsoft is going to pay its own way on data centers. We've been talking about this energy needs for data centers for a long time now. And there's been this theme, hey, if the data centers are going to take all this energy, it's going to spike local power consumption. We saw a number of data centers, gentlemen, maybe pull out of projects where there was local pushback on them. On Monday, President Trump, our President Trump, addressed this PR crisis on Truth Social, calling out Microsoft, and never want Americans to pay higher electricity bills because of data centers. Two words, data centers.

15:10I ended the last part. Microsoft will make major changes beginning this week to ensure that Americans don't pick up the tab for their power consumption. Microsoft President Brad Smith announced They will pay higher electricity rates where they are building data centers to cover the cost of the new power generation and grid upgrades. Seems like a pretty simple idea. And they're also going to pay to replenish water that it draws from the reservoirs. That issue has also been a little bit overblown. Freeburg, you probably, or actually, you probably know a lot about that. And you can explain the data center recycling water issues and the misperceptions.

15:45and they're not microsoft has announced they're not going to accept any tax breaks or electricity rate discounts so that era seems to have ended shavath you're involved in a number of data centers and obviously david sacks you're involved in this as our ai czar and civil servant so shavath why don't you start us off here you guys can find the clip but we talked about this a few weeks ago that these kinds of things were in the offing i really like it it's a very good first order set of things to do, which is to step into a local area and take all of these energy issues off the table, at least to the extent that you're contributing to it.

16:24The problem is that the data centers are only part of the problem. The reality is that we have a whole new way of living that is drawing more and more electrons. We are at a shortage for what we need. The reaction of the utilities is to now build, which is the right reaction. The problem is that for the last 20 years, they've been underbuilding. So as they catch up, even if you have the data centers that are willing to pay their fair share, rates will still go up. So what do we need to do that is beyond what Microsoft just announced? I think all the hyperscalers should copy what Microsoft did.

17:09I think it's great that the president was able to get these guys to the table to agree to it. What is the next major thing? The next major thing is when you actually create a$100 or$200 billion tax equity vehicle and you have them completely subsidize and pay for the electricity costs of homeowners. How do you do that? You do that by paying for them to get solar and storage. Why would they do that? They would do that for two reasons. Number one, and the most important, is that it will give them a social license to operate throughout the country. The second reason is that the president preserved the ability to make those kinds of investments and be tax advantaged for doing it in the one big beautiful bill.

17:56So if you put these two things together, I think step one is you go into a local area, you tell the local residents, we'll pay for the water, we'll make sure there's minimal noise, and we'll make sure that we take absolutely no discount, we pay our fair share, even if it means paying more than you do for electricity. That's step one. But now I think we need to go in with step two. Here is a bunch of money that we have allocated to go and fit your house out with solar, with storage, with next generation heat pumps, with a modern set of infrastructure so that you are totally resilient, And now you are completely ambivalent to what the grid has to do in reaction to all the demand that's coming.

18:39Yeah. I had Zach Dell from Base Power on this week in startups, I don't know, a year ago now. And we were talking about this. And I said, hey, why wouldn't you just... And what they do is not solar. Because solar takes time. You've got to rip up your roof. There's some complications with solar. You need to have the space for it. It's expensive to install. They just put a battery, like a little R2-D2 outside your house. they fill up that battery when energy is cheap and plentiful and they deploy it when it's expensive and the grid has challenges and he said those kind of deals are in the works or the discussions were happening and that was back then so this is a really easy win-win-win type situation you're describing sacks this feels like proactive now thoughtful ways to communicate to the populace of, hey, the AI boom is here and you have concerns, we're going to get ahead of them.

19:29So have you been involved in any of these discussions? Are you talking with Chris Wright and overlapping in terms of the communication here? Is it just a free market solution? Well, Jason, the president's been ahead of the curve on this issue really since the beginning of the administration. I don't know if you recall, but he said that he was going to make AI companies into the biggest power companies because he understood that the data centers that they needed required a lot of power, but they were going to stand up their own power generation and they wouldn't just draw off the grid. And so I think this understanding has always been there.

20:00When I've talked to the hyperscalers, they also tell me that their plan is not to draw from the grid, is to basically set up their own power generation behind the meter. It's called co-location. And in fact, I think ultimately this will bring down rates for residential consumers for two reasons. One is that when the data centers create their own power, they can sell back or donate back to the grid when they connect. They don't have to connect to the grid, but once they do, they can donate back. And then second, there's a number of fixed costs in power generation. It's not just variable, right?

20:36There's these large fixed costs. And so as you increase scale, those fixed costs get amortized over a greater amount of supply. And that brings down the variable rate, basically the meter rate for everybody. So scale is good. And I think the deceptive nature of the criticism here about like Bernie Sanders and people like that is what they say is, well, we just have to shut down all the data centers, period. When the real problem here is that he and others like him have over-regulated power generation to death so that it's too hard to set up net new power, right? I mean, if power generation were easier, there wouldn't need to be a limit on what the data centers could use.

21:16They could just bring their own power. So that is the obvious solution here. And it's good to see Microsoft make this pledge and sort of formalize that. I think all the other hyperscalers will do that. Again, it was never part of their plan, I think, to draw on the grid for their power needs. They always, I think, understood that they'd have to stand up their own power. And the issue is just regulations getting in the way of that. And just one final point on this is that there are a bunch of regulations by FERC, for example, that interfere with the ability to do co-location. Co-location is when you put a data center and the power generation next to each other, you do them together.

21:54And Chris Wright, the Secretary of Energy, has directed FERC to make a bunch of changes to make behind the meter and co-location easier so that these data centers can stand up their own power. And the only reason that hasn't happen is just because of the usual bureaucratic delays, but that is well on its way to happening. All right. Does that make sense? Yeah, it makes total sense. And, you know, if we start thinking about incentives, incentives obviously matter. And I don't think a lot of people know this, but I think I talked about it when we were talking about nuclear-free bird. In France, the people who live near the vine uh i think is how it's pronounced uh reactor they pay 0.1 percent tax versus the 12 regional average and so they and then i think the uk has also talked about these sort of danger zone or uh proposals and payments you can give people a discount to incentivize them and reward them giving them free local electricity etc for living near a nuclear power plant that hasn't come up here in the united states and there's been a lot of uh fud fear uncertainty and doubt freeberg around these data centers people throwing around a lot of talking points i think you and i discussed offline the the misperceptions about water usage and that the water usage is largely recycled in these data centers um if you know about that would you would you inform the audience about that piece of data well we got a lot of water it just goes around in a circle.

23:24So I don't think that's an issue. But clean water and the cost of clean water increasing for a local population is the issue and the misperception there. The modern cooling systems, these data centers, the water recirculates and transports the heat out of the data center. So it's not like the water is used up. I guess there's a separate type of evaporative cooling that does use up some water, but modern data centers don't use that. So the water issue is really a total hoax, and it's really kind of a sub-hoax of this larger affordability issue. I'm not saying that affordability isn't an issue, but it was caused by Biden's 9 % inflation, and now Democrats are trying to make it an issue.

24:05When it comes to the power for data centers, again, this all comes back to the fact that the regulations make it too hard to generate net new power. So, again, scaling demand on its own, not a problem if you also scale supply of electricity. In fact, it brings down prices for everyone because scale creates economies of scale. Yeah, and 90 % of that water is reused, and there's closed water loop systems. Here's my pitch. I think the president should try to create a$300,$400,$500 billion tax equity fund and help eliminate the electricity costs of 50 to 100 million American households. Amazing. Well, let me give you the math.

24:47So we consume in this country about 4 trillion kilowatt hours of electricity. Average price is 18 cents a kilowatt hour. So it's about, call it$750 billion of spend on electricity every year. One third of that,$250 billion, is residential consumption. Two thirds of that,$500 billion, is industrial and commercial consumption. Theoretically, you could increase the price on industrial and commercial consumption by call it 50 % and make all residential electricity in the United States free. If you're a residential user, you get a cap of free electricity every month. And if you use more than that cap, you get charged.

25:29But below that cap, you're free based on whatever square footage of your house. I don't know, whatever. And then on the commercial and industrial side, the reason you would then have an incentive to build private power systems would be that you can bring your cost down. And instead of centralizing all of this with the utilities, what it can do is it can force a market demand for industrial and commercial users to build their own power systems, which would increase overall electricity supply in the United States, the data centers are the tip of the iceberg. But if you make this a pan industrial problem, then all of the industrial companies would have to take this path.

26:07The problem is it doesn't change the net consumption model. If you actually go to solar and storage for every 15 million homes, you take a terawatt hour of demand off the grid. That's an extra terawatt hour that you don't need to build, but you can't build that quickly. So the reason why I like solar and storage is you make these folks so self-reliant. Now, all of a sudden, we're actually catching up to China faster than we would have otherwise. You're talking about residentials? Yeah. Your idea, which is a good one, the problem is they're still using grid services. Right. Or they don't have to.

26:38That's the point. Like if they end up with industrial users, well, the industrial users will then invest in solar systems. You don't know that for sure. My point is today the homeowners are using. there is no solution to not using yeah if the industrial price goes up by 50 you've now created a market force to drive them to make the investment i understand particularly if you've if you deregulated i understand the math but my point is and you get this first year capex depreciation so they actually get a benefit and instead of putting all of the building guys you're talking through each other chamat's point is that you're still taxing the grid his proposal adds another layer to what you're saying so he's in agreement with you freeberg hey yeah let's have the businesses pay a little extra and and not or and let's have them also take them off the grid take them off the grid to reduce it well there's 80 million freestanding homes in the united states and it's about 15k to put these battery packs in like base power zooming you can probably get it down to 10 and if you just do back back of the envelope math you're talking about a trillion dollars so basically for 100 billion you could do 10 of the country if you were to do that over some time period, we would have, we would stop worrying about the grid, I think is Shemot's point.

27:47And you could do it with battery, you could do it with solar. Well, you would not stop worrying about the grid. But Jason, just to refine what you're saying, because you're directionally very right, the consumers would feel less of these issues. And instead of all of us worrying how to underwrite terawatt hours to catch up to China, we actually get a two for one, the consumer homes don't have that anxiety anymore. They don't have the bill. And because they're generating their own power, they're off the grid. And now what that means is that extra terawatt hour can actually go to the commercial and industrial applications, including these data centers.

28:22And you're right, Freebird, we should raise their tariffs. I just think it's a lot, it's a lot more complicated and a lot more expensive. No, your method is very more complicated. No, listen, none of this is free. None of it's free. However, we have such an amazing opportunity with AI that it makes sense to do this. That, I think, is the big picture. AI is such a huge opportunity. There's so much investment. Why wouldn't you do this is the question. And if we want to live in the age of abundance and we want to bring the bottom half of the country up and we want affordability, where do people spend their money?

28:51Food, groceries, their rent, and their electricity and the utilities. So if we want to figure out a direct way to do this, and for all the hippie dippies who care about the environment and clean energy, this is a win there as well. And it doesn't come out of Americans' pockets and their taxes. It comes out of corporations, which are printing money. If you want to talk about redistribution of wealth, this is a way for the great American MAC-7 corporations to give something back to Americans. And you talked about this right from maybe three or four weeks ago that, hey, maybe there would be some way for great corporations to do great things for Americans.

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29:26The fact that Americans don't think about their water bill that much is a mitzvah. It's a great thing. Now, if they didn't have to think about electricity, wow, amazing. We will look back and I think that we will want to have seen these big companies who are unbelievably profitable step up on behalf of American homeowners. Some might say, absolutely. I just think it's a great mission to the moon style framing to say, what if we could make all residential electricity free in the United States? And over the next decade, if we can do that, not only do we help Americans with their wallet, but we actually can enable a distributed investment scheme in American energy production.

30:09And we force the corporations to step up and do their part rather than centralize it. So I just like the framing of making this whole thing free, making residential electricity free in the US as a core benefit. The other thing is we've talked about this. I've mentioned this a couple of times before. I think the single biggest dollar short, it's not clear when, that one will be able to make will be on these utilities. Because if any version of what we just talked about happens, and all of a sudden you have private homeowners that are their own utility, and then Freeberg CNI being their own power utility, what do the utilities do?

30:48what does all this capex go to how do they pay back their bonds what happens to their rate base this is a huge economic question that i think will come up if even a small modicum of what we just talked about materializes yeah and you know people having their first x number of kilowatt hours a year free you know obviously you're not going to have unlimited free you know that that's going to be pretty transformative for america it's aspirational we all like the idea i like it okay Okay, OpenAI has struck another compute deal. This one's worth over 10 billion. OpenAI is buying compute capacity from Cerebras.

31:25That's C-E-R-E-B-R-A-S. They committed to purchase up to 750 megawatts over three years. Cerebras, like Rock, makes specialized chips for AI inference. Cerebras is in talks to raise$1 billion at a$22 billion valuation, according to reports. And they're expected to IPO this year, potentially in the next couple of months. Sam Waltman is an investor in the company. so uh he knows it well and there is he really stopped i mean it's in the notes it's in the notes you can't say this stuff if you don't know if it's true it's in the notes it's in the notes take it out and post if it's not i reported by the misinformation i don't know it could be information could be misinformation shout out okay to our friends at the information these were your competitors at rock yeah uh they were contemporaries yeah they're fantastic we both started at the same time, we took slightly different technical approaches.

32:18The big difference that what Cerebra said initially from the start, and this is my friend, Andrew Feldman, so I'll give him a shout out. Very smart guy. If you see a chip, what you actually see is a wafer. And a wafer is full of little chips, right? And you literally tear them off. That's why they're called chips. Andrew was like, no, I'm just going to make one ginormous chip the size of a wafer. And so if you look at it, Nick, maybe you can find a picture of it. These things are huge. and at the time people were like i don't think they really understood what the power of what cerebrus was building and what andrew is building and then the first folks that really got on board were the emiratis so mgx and g42 and you started to run these models and what you started to see was man their inference is blazing fast again back to what we talked about last week because when you have the compute and the memory in the same place physical distances are now minimized and the complexity is minimized.

33:11So you just have incredible speed. What I can tell you is that OpenAI is aggressively trying to diversify so that they have multiple paths of inference available. They have a huge deal with AMD. They have a huge deal with NVIDIA. They now have a huge deal with Cerebris. If you look at the trail of breadcrumbs, my belief, there's going to be a renaissance in silicon. Young, small teams building decode silicon can make a fortune over the next 10 to 20 years. it's a huge opportunity it's going to be like the pc wars dell versus compact versus all of these companies it's super exciting congrats to cerebris they deserve it is there um any argument that compute needs will level off in some way we will have built so much capacity and the software will get better there's been some talk about anthropic being resource constrained as the contemporary to open AI.

34:05And I think there's pretty much uniformity amongst elite AI users that Claude is a much better product now than open AI. And the models are better. The applications are better, but they're doing it with less. So could the build out be, could it slow down? Is that a scenario that's out there? Or is this always going to be up until the right for the next five, 10 years? What's your crystal ball say? Sax, are you still there? I'm here. Oh, okay. Why is this video off? Turn it on. I mean, you can turn it back on and then when you talk, we'll just go back and forth. Texas still has a ways to go, I have to say.

34:41All right, there you go. All right, so anyway, Abbott. This is your best internet? Texas infrastructure is... Oh my God, Sax is going to do the Texas bounce back. Abbott will send someone over immediately. They're pretty responsive in Texas. My prediction is there'll be a big meme by the end of this year called the Texas bounce back. And it's a bunch of billionaires. They do a little jiggy as they dance back from Texas back to California. No. You're there for good, huh? Well, here's the thing. Okay. Well, let me just talk about BTA because that's where this is going. Well, I mean, listen, you move houses.

35:16Say you move houses, you could have a little internet issue. It's okay. Well, I mean, I'd rather have an internet issue and keep 100 % of my money than... Lose 5%. Lose 5 % plus 13.3 per year. and it's not going to be a one-time tax. That's the biggest lie. It's 5 % now, 5 % later, 10 % after that. Yeah. You know, it'll be an exit tax. They're coming for all of it. Yeah. So the internet can get fixed. Let's put it this way. My internet can get fixed a lot more easily than California can. What are the 10 states that constitutionally ban asset taxes? Yeah, so it's direct and implicit in those states' constitutions or they have an amendment to the constitution that makes it direct or implicit that you can't do a wealth tax or an asset cession.

36:04Which are they? Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas. According to Grok, only Texas explicitly bans wealth taxes. Yes, that is correct. But because of some of the other state constitutions, it's implicit. So Texas has in their constitution a prohibition on, quote, tax on wealth or net worth. Washington has a uniformity clause, which treats income as property, which bans non-uniform rates. Florida's constitution bans any sort of personal tax. Pennsylvania has a strict uniformity clause, which would make it impossible to have graduated tax rates or distinguished tax rates amongst populations.

36:44Illinois has a strict constitutional mandate for a flat non-graduated tax rate, so you cannot do a separation. and then asset seizure is referred to as a civil asset forfeiture which is a separate legal issue but implies in states like new mexico nebraska and north carolina you cannot actually have an asset taken from you by the state so there's a bunch of states that this would be constitutionally protected against freeberg has your mind changed since last week about whether this is going to make the ballot? I don't think it's going to make the ballot. I mean, look, I think it's not, I'm not saying 100%, I'm saying slight overweight that it's not going to get there.

37:27So nothing has changed in your perspective. I think we're going through the rolling wake-up process right now, which is people are waking up to the fact that the asset seizure tax is an elimination of private property rights. That fundamentally what you're saying, and I wrote this in my tweet, that private property now becomes public property because as soon as you give the government the right to collect your post-tax assets through a legislative vote, you are basically saying that you no longer have private property because at any point in the future, the government can vote to say, I'm going to take your private property, which is different than an income tax, which is when you earn something that you didn't have before, and they take a percentage of your earnings of your income.

38:06The statement now is after you've made your income, it's now your private property, they can come and take it. And so that is a distinction that has never existed in the United States, and I will make the retort right now to property tax, because people always say to me, well, what about property tax? A property tax is a service fee on a particular specific asset. The money that is collected provides services for that asset to make it more valuable. So you get roads, infrastructure, policing, fire care, schools, all the stuff that comes with property tax makes that asset more and you have the option at any point you want to sell that property and stop paying that property tax.

38:42You have the option at any point to downgrade your property and get a cheaper property and pay it lower. And here's the other important point about property tax. It's uniform. Uniform means that everyone pays the same percentage, the same property tax rate in a county. This asset seizure tax that's being proposed is a demographic tax, meaning that the state or the legislature defines a specific group of individuals. In this case, they're saying anyone with a net worth over a billion dollars. And then they can go and take assets from only that group. that is non-uniform taxation it means that for the first time we're saying based on the demographics of a person meaning whatever you want to use to define that person in this case their wealth you are going to be treated differently and that is different than an income tax because remember when you have graduated income tax rates and you say high earners tax get taxed more what you're taxing is the earnings not the individual you're not looking through to the individual to determine and whether or not they're wealthy, all you're doing is looking at the independent earnings amount that's coming in.

39:44And so a uniformity clause is supposed to protect people from being demographically discriminated against. And you may roll your hand and be like, oh, who cares about the billionaires, eat the rich. That's great. But fundamentally, you're giving the government, the legislature, the ability to, in the future, take any demographic definition they want and go in and take any percentage they want of after-tax property from you. That is why this is so troubling. And we can harp all day long about eat the rich. And obviously this group is biased. But the general population should be very much aware of the fact that as soon as you give a legislature the ability to discriminate a group and take whatever percentage they want.

40:24You've set precedent. And it's over. Now what you've done is you've made all private property public property because the government is simply giving you permission every year to keep your stuff. And the government shouldn't even know. It's like they're coming onto your ranch and calculating how many tractors you got. You got an old Corvette. How much is that worth? What's your old roadster worth? What's your grandma's jewelry worth? How much moose is worth? Moose is, yeah, they could take 5 % of moose. Very valuable thoroughbred there. Absolutely is. There'll be a new job category, tax appraisers.

40:52Tax appraisers. And then you don't know whether the person paid - Knocking on your door. I'm here to walk around your ranch and calculate everything. And it doesn't solve the geometric debt problem, right? We have a problem where every year, if we keep funding things with a deficit in California, we're looking at a 30 billion a year deficit. We've got 500 billion of debt, and we have a nearly$1 trillion pension obligation that is not funded. That money is going to come from somewhere or it is not going to get paid. It is more likely that they're going to do everything they possibly can to get that money from somewhere rather than not pay it.

41:26And the same is true for all pension obligations across the country. Illinois has a big problem like this as well. Well, can I take the other side of that bet that you mentioned about it not getting on the ballot? Please. Yeah, go for it. Well, I've never understood why this wouldn't get on the ballot. And I've never understood why once it's on the ballot, it wouldn't pass, which is why I left. So let's take the first one of these in terms of it getting on the ballot. You only need about 8 million bucks to collect the signatures, 850 ,000 signatures. It's not that many in California. There's definitely millions of people in California who would love to stick it to billionaires.

42:02so they're going to gather the signatures that seiu has the money the only way that it wouldn't therefore make the ballot is if gavin newsom and the political machine bribe the seiu with enough political benefits that they'll withdraw it but what the seiu is asking for is whatever it is the 30 billion dollars and i don't know if gavin newsom has that much money laying around somewhere that he can just give them. Furthermore, if you're the guy running the SEIU, I understand his name is Dave Regan. Regan, Dave Regan. You got to be looking at what's happening on X right now and you got to be gleeful.

42:39You got all these billionaires are panic tweeting all day long. It's not all day long. I tweet in the morning from the bathroom. Well, we're all doing it. Morning constitutional. I went on a base tweeting spree this morning. So if you're this guy, Regan, you're like oh my god look how much leverage i've got you know twist a pig's ear watch him squeal he's twisted these billionaires ears and they're all squealing so why wouldn't you increase your leverage by spending the eight million dollars put it on the ballot and then negotiate with was that a deliverance reference i hope not no it's just an expression i don't know why your mind is going to deliverance i don't know you squeal louder You got deliverance on the brain.

43:23Maybe I do. So I'll tell you why. So I've obviously been a believer. I've been a believer in the long cycle. And I've said this for a long time. We are going to end up in either a socialist or some sort of fascist. Either way, it's a tyrannical system to get us out of the death spiral that we've been in for some time. So that is true. But I still want to retain my sense of individual agency. And I do think that those of us who are in California who actually care should retain some sense of agency rather than suspend our ability to have an influence in the outcome here. I think we need to speak openly and honestly about where this leads to, let people hear it, let the people in California decide.

44:02And frankly, if we've done our job, we've spoken loudly, we've spoken clearly, we've revealed to people where a private property seizure tax leads to for everyone in this country and the deletion of private property rights in this country and they still sign up to it, then I'm out. Yeah, I get it. If it was a centimillionaire tax, she would have been out. I agree that we should fight it. I'm not being fatalistic. I don't think the outcome is predetermined, but I don't understand why it wouldn't get on the ballot. Because that has nothing to do with how persuasive you and the opponents of BTA are.

44:36It's just about whether SEIU, UHW will spend the requisite amount of money, 8 million, 10 million, 12 million, whatever, to gather the signatures. And, I mean, we've heard they have the money, right? So why wouldn't they? It only increases their leverage to demand more concessions. They have$14 million to gather the signatures, which the estimate was they'll need somewhere between 5 and 15. So they have the cash they need to gather the signatures. It's a good bet. And they have roughly$10 million to run an ad campaign. And their estimate is they need between$50 and$100 million to run an ad campaign.

45:06Sounds like a good investment. The next step will be that they'll try and get this thing signed up. Now, the polling data, it shows that there's room for influence, Zach. So I do think that if people can understand where this is headed and look, if America wants to sign up to this, Godspeed, man, like that's where America is going to end up in the socialist death spiral loophole. Like, good luck. Have a good time. I'm going to terminus to start the foundation. I don't know where the hell that is, but I'm out. You're out. I'm out. And in the meantime, all we can do is speak truth to it and try and shine light on it and see where it goes.

45:43Hey, maybe 51st state Greenland. Maybe we'll just do the first state. Look, I'm not saying it's going to pass, although I do think it's probably slightly more likely than not to pass once it's on the ballot. I just don't understand why it's not going to be on the ballot. And once it makes the ballot in, let's say, April, I think there's going to be a big freak out and rush for the exits because there's a lot of people who, you know, this is my theory is I'm going to beat the rush before the end of the party. People don't realize this. It's not billionaires. I have received dozens of texts, emails, calls from people, founders, business leaders, CEOs that are out.

46:17If in April, this thing ends up on the ballot, because they're like writings on the wall, if no politicians in California are willing to stand up and talk about private property rights, and no one's willing to say like this leads to a death spiral for the state and potentially for the country, and no one's going to say that, then it's only a matter of time before this happens. And it's only a matter of time before it hits me. Right. So everyone is looking for a place. Let me give you a data point on that. there are other unions who weren't part of this ballot initiative who are preparing similar ones for 2028.

46:47And those ballot initiatives are going to be more bulletproof. They're going to be better lawyered, all that kind of stuff, more likely to survive constitutional challenges. The only reason why there is political opposition, I believe, to the BTA is because it was done by only one union, the SEIU, UHW. This guy did it on his own. And the loot, all the proceeds from this confiscation would go, almost all of it would go just to this one union or its causes. So they didn't cut in the other unions on the loot. They didn't wet the other unions' beaks. As a result of that, the other unions are actually against it.

47:27And this is why Newsom and the other politicians feel relatively unconstrained and saying they're opposed to it. And that's why I think that if we defeat this in 26, it doesn't mean it's dead for good. It just means it's going to come back in a new form in 28, but with much more broad-based union support. All the unions are going to do it together. So I just think this is inevitable. And I think that for all the founders and whether you're pre-exit, post-exit, or on your way to an exit, my advice would be that, to quote Maya Angelou, when a state shows you who they are, believe them the first time this is the direction of travel in california and whether it's seiu or whatever they do in teachers this is where it's going they'd love to see something you said something that resonated with me which is the next versions of this will be better lawyered and more bulletproof i've had a team of people looking at this the thing that is the biggest weakness here is looking at the fact that this is a wholly new tax that is applied retroactively.

48:35And when you look at the Supreme Court at the federal level, the case law on this, this is the strongest challenge that people will have. And this is where there is a preponderance of evidence in the favor of people saying that this is unjust, and this is a taking, and being able to use the Supreme Court to bat this back. now that'll take five and ten years to litigate because it'll be there drawing itself through the courts forever but when you look at the fact that that will be the angle of attack that people will take if this passes i a hundred percent agree with you sacks if this union were smart enough what they would have done is say this is going to start jan 1 of 2027 it probably would make the ballot, it probably would pass, and they would get all the loot, and it would be very difficult to legally challenge this thing.

49:29It was a huge miscalculation by that union, but in 28 or 30 or 32, this will rear its ugly head, it will be better architected, and there will be no way around it. And at that point, why create an artificial line at one with nine zeros after it? Why? Why? It's stupid. Go to 100 million. Get everybody. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Move that number up a little bit. Let's get it to 250. And if what we're saying is right, then why would it not happen at a national level? Of course it will. Yes, they're going to start chasing you around the country. It's disgusting. Well, because I'll tell you why.

50:10Because we still have plenty of conservatives in the rest of the country. California is screwed. But we got to start stacking sandbags around the rest of the states. Freeberg, you said something that I really liked in your post, which is it begs the question, what will happen when California goes BK and then they go to the feds? And it doesn't actually matter who is in charge at that time. But let's think about it if Trump were in charge for a second. California knocks and says, hey, I need you to bail us out. the deal that california would need to do with the president for that to even be palatable so that he could build a coalition of republicans around it man california will go through tremendous pain measures but then go through the other side so now imagine aoc's president aoc's president so she says i got to do this and then when it goes to congress how does this actually happen this is again where i think sax is right as long as there is a 49 51 kind of a balance i don't think anything can really happen without meaningfully deep austerity in california i think there's a way out for now if the filibuster is gone by that time yeah and it's simple majority and then if there's a democrat in the oval plus a democratic congress yeah david you're right because that is the one shot on goal that they have a two-year window to run that play at the federal level and they will be able to get it done now ask yourself the question what happens to the citizens of florida the citizens of texas and the citizens of north dakota and the citizens of all these states that pay federal taxes have not had this problem in their state and they're basically paying dude alaska has a surplus alaska has a surplus yeah but why should what do you do what do you think it'll happen california it's unfair all those citizens and this is where the union starts to unravel.

52:01And that's where I get very concerned about where this leads. As soon as you allow this asset seizure tax to pass, even on a state level, the economic ramifications are on a national level, the economic ramifications are inevitable that some states are going to have to bail out other states. And that's where things get very ugly. The bill will come due at some point. This is super easy out here for the Democrats or people who are supporting this. Just go after fraud first, tax a second. That's got to be the mantra going forward. We're going to eliminate fraud and waste, and then we'll have a discussion about taxes.

52:33That's the only way for them to find an escape hatch here. Okay, we've beaten this to death. Well, it's how you win the moderates. Yeah, I mean, like... Yeah, that's what I'm talking about. But just some interesting stats here. So California collects roughly double per capita what Texas and Florida do. So California collects about$10 ,319 per taxpayer, whereas Texas,$5 ,469. Florida,$4 ,914. So there's not an issue here of California not collecting enough taxes. The issue is all on the spending. And on that front, the California budget has doubled over the past decade while the population stayed flat.

53:13And in fact - And services got worse. Services got worse. Test scores got worse. Crime prevention and enforcement got worse. Where's it going? They let convicts out of jails. Everything's gotten worse. Where's the money going, Saks? Say the word. It's going to these government worker unions who have accumulated too much political power. Look, you go all the way back to FDR, and he was opposed to, even though he was for unions, he was opposed to government workers unions because he thought they would accumulate too much political power, and they elect the politicians, and then the politicians are the ones paying them.

53:49So they just end up extracting more and more and more iteratively with every election cycle. It's the same as an antitrust monopoly in a corporation. It's the same ultimate dynamics as having a monopoly in private industry and corporations. It basically gives you a monopoly on political power, and it gives you the ability to monopolize assets. And that's effectively where we are. Now they're at the point where one union is saying, I'm going to take the assets,$100 billion of assets from a small minority of people in the state. The reality is that a lot of it is the pension obligations. You can work for the state for 20 years, retire in your 40s, and you basically, what, you get like 90 % of your wage for the rest of your life.

54:31It doesn't work. It doesn't pencil out. It's got to end. They use your last year's W-2, so you stuff it with overtime your last year, and you end up retiring with like 150 % of your annual salary for life. It doesn't even apply to your spouse, too. But this was the promise that was given in order to get the votes that have gotten us to the point we're at today, because that is how the unions operate. Right. It is a system that drives political influence by making these sorts of benefits law and brings them to bear. if the average retirement age is 50 and your lifespan is 80 like this is way this is not how it was intended people used to get these at 60 and they would die at 68 it was like let's say you start working for the state at 22 and you can retire at 42 actually what a lot of people do is they'll go then take a second government job and they'll stack a second pension but yeah you could retire at 42 and if you if you stuff it with yeah yeah you can stuff it with overtime and and i think it applies to your spouse as well just fact check me on that I know I'm aware of it in New York where a little bit of this stuffing on the margins does occur, I've heard.

55:39I'm not against police officers and teachers and people getting reasonable. You need to do superannuation funds. You have to have people buying into the market over time, and the government shouldn't be managing this. It's just the government is terrible at whatever it does, and there's too much for them to do. Let it stand alone. Take it out. Carve it out. you're you're forced to put 12 into this or your employer puts a little bit into it and then we'd have a very happy society more participation in the market would solve so many problems okay i just want to hit one last topic congratulations to greenland on accepting a very generous offer from president trump we welcome you as the 51st state maybe that'll be happening any day now u.s officials met with reps from denmark and greenland at the white house on Wednesday to discuss how the US could take control of Greenland.

56:32This has been something Trump's been talking about for years. And remember my rule number one of President Trump, he says a lot of things. One way or another, we're going to get it March 4th, 2025. I need it for psychological reasons to actually own it. 2021, he said that we're going to do something with Greenland, either the nice way or the more difficult way, January 9th, 2026. Denmark doesn't seem to want to play ball they say they have a fundamental disagreement about this that being said there's only 50 000 people there and it's a poly market's got it a 17 chance that we acquire it which is significant as a starting point 50 000 people getting a half million or a million dollars each would probably be a pretty good deal it's a very strategic piece of land if you look at what's happening with the ice caps melting, SACs, and Russia positioning a lot of their ships up in the Arctic, there's a pretty clean shot going past Greenland to the northeast of America.

57:36So maybe you could just talk about why this is, and again, you're not speaking for the administration, it's not your lane, but why is Greenland so important? Well, it is becoming more significant from a national security standpoint as those Arctic ices melt and you have new shipping lanes that have opened up. So it is important on that dimension. But look, American politicians have wanted to acquire Greenland for a long time. The great Secretary of State, William Seward, wanted to acquire it. He acquired Alaska. He wanted to get Greenland, too, was unable to make that deal. But FDR and Truman both were interested in acquiring Greenland.

58:09It didn't work out, obviously. So this is an old idea that's new again, thanks to President Trump. I think he makes a great point. Why does it belong to the Danes? You know, it's a small country in Europe. It's not part of North America. And I think if we can acquire it for national security reasons and resource reasons, we should. And I think the odds of him pulling this off are much greater than 17%. Chamath or Freeberg, you have any thoughts on the 51st state? I don't know anything about it. Well, they don't have to become a state, to be clear. No, no, I don't. They can become a protector. Yeah, I mean, territory, whatever it is.

58:44Yeah. It could be like a country club, whatever. It's important that we get memberships. This is a huge piece of real estate in the Western Hemisphere. It doesn't really make a ton of sense for Denmark to own it. It makes a lot more sense for it to be part of the US. And? We're willing to pay for it. And I think that we can make them an offer that they can't refuse. Absolutely. And it has - We're going to send Luca Brasi over there. I thought Luca Brasi, get a bank of an offer. it's got a lot of railroads minerals there's a lot of oil offshore their big export now is is fish obviously but this has lots of potential freeberg in terms of the resources and um yeah why not get it done trump loves real estate we got him for another three years i say let president trump cook and if he wants to buy some other land i'm here for it i love building the empire this is my favorite trump freberg you love this trump or not the old adage is there's always a deal there's always a price except when you're negotiating with the government so i don't know how that's going to go my understanding my experience is that they do not want to deal they're not interested there's a whole bunch of national pride associated with that you can't break national pride as we know as patriots of america it is very hard to fight national pride i don't know if the economics are really going to play out.

1:00:09But security guarantees, maybe other benefits for the great kingdom of Denmark, there could be a strong alliance and partnership for the United States. I think it could be important for the U.S. to have a new frontier. You know, maybe what we can do is send all these progressive socialists off to Greenland to tame this new frontier. I want to go. Yeah, send Mondami there. They get that grit. We need that spirit of the frontier of cowboys, of exploration. yes then mandami seems like a very resilient gritty guy he'll come with this whole crew the socialist roe kanna let him set up there let's see what the idea of having what's called a freedom province or freedom state or freedom city economic free zone yeah yeah and and i do think if we if we are looking down the barrel of socialism in the united states which i think socially leads to a destruction of individual liberties and a degradation of the social fabric in America.

1:01:05Before that happens, it's important that those who are on the other side and before they get overwhelmed with the votes and the elected officials that will fight against them, before this all happens, it's important to think about carving out a legal territory. And that legal territory should allow for the resurrection of the great American union, of the great American spirit. And we should find a place within our sphere of influence before we get overwhelmed to set something up. It's called Texas, dude. It's called Texas. Remember the Alamo. We're making our last stand here. Absolutely. The.50 calibers are up on the ranch.

1:01:43I think it would be helpful to get something that's federally set up, Saks, that you could have untouchable legislation that says this is not to be touched. This is pioneering, whatever it is. Freebird, join the militia. We got a militia. And maybe Greenland is the place, but it's something that feels, it's got to be something that feels difficult, something that feels open, something that feels a little bit untouched. And it's regionally encased with a set of legislated things like Guam or Puerto Rico or something where you set it up and you're like, look, this is untouchable. It takes a big action to change it.

1:02:19Something where people can have protection against the socialist milieu that's all the way. Well, you know, it is kind of interesting as I remember from my high school history, I think the frontier was officially over by 1910. I think that was meaning every longitude basically had been fully explored. Every latitude and longitude had been sort of settled. And that is when the progressive era kind of began. And I do kind of wonder whether the frontier was this like escape valve for pressure that builds up, you know, resentments that build up in the economy. me, people could always just go west and become pioneers and find new territory.

1:03:00That's right. And in a way, that's what America was for Europe, right? I mean, Europe was sort of this overcrowded place. It was oppressive. And people just left that they could opt out by going to America and settling over in what would become the United States. And I kind of wonder whether maybe we need something like that again. And by the way, I think the digital frontier - As an escape hatch for all the discontents. You're right. So they don't become democratic socialists in America. And for a while, the digital frontier became that escape valve. But now that's being shut off, and it's being closed down.

1:03:31And the place where it's been run from is being subjugated to the socialist. So the question is, what's next? I think it's a very good question. Well, the problem is that the socialists, they're not explorers. They're not pioneers. They don't create anything. They're not builders. What they are is they're really good at hijacking existing institutions. And that's what they do is they take things that were created by great people and they subvert them and they seize control. And that's what they're going for is total control. first in California and then in Washington. But I do wonder whether the existence of some sort of release valve might defer that day, right?

1:04:13Because you get less pressure building up in the system. Yeah. All right. Another amazing episode. And just want to give a shout out. Chamath did an amazing interview with my guy, Howard Lutnick. That was fun, huh, Chamath? That was awesome. He's awesome. Yeah, I'm really impressed by him. And Freeberg, on a bit of a heater here, today we dropped an incredible interview with fda commissioner marty mccarray am i pronouncing correctly mccarray great job there and uh also you're you got to hang out with your childhood hero we grew up on howard stern on the east coast but you grew up with adam carolla and you got to interview him you were fanboy fangirling a little bit there at the start weren't you well it was great i'd never met him so it was great to interview him i mean he has a a lot of interesting ideas.

1:05:00I got a lot of texts about his coined term gyno-fascism, which I think some people - Explain to the audience what gyno-fascism - Watch the interview. Okay, watch the interview. We don't want to get a - He was great. You had to see the start of this interview. Javad Freberg's like, Mr. Carolla, I used to watch you and Dr. Drew talking on Loveline, and it really was formative in my years as a broadcaster, and now I, too, am a broadcaster. It was really cute. It was really cute. I never said I'm a broadcaster. I would never. You were like, I would never, I would never degrade myself like that. I actually am doing random acts of broadcasting.

1:05:40The sun never steps on the all in empire. And I also did a, a fun CES interview with the CEO of McKinsey, Bob Sternfels and Haymont from general catalyst. And that's up on the feed. So four, four, one, two, three, four. interview shows waiting for you in your feet and to the mainstream media trying to keep up with this gfy gfy good for you have fun trying guys believe that jacob has been invited to davos i can't wait to see i'm bringing my acoustic guitar i'm gonna tear it up we're gonna have fun did you guys see me rage bait twitter two days ago what did you know what did you do i put this thing where you showed your legs no remember when we did the interview at the all-in summit where talzi talked about the obama documents yeah well this guy did a rant i thought the rant was great but i just retweeted it and people lost their mind basically he was calling for obama's arrest oh god oh gosh i said very casually gosh this is a really underreported oh i saw that one I was wondering who that guy was though I'm like hmm Did Nat make you take it down?

1:06:54No he's still up there Wait who is that streamer? I don't know who he is It could be AI Could be AI I think he said he met Did you guys watch Nick Shirley's new video? Oh no He goes looking for the Check this out There's these transportation companies they get$10 million a day in Minnesota. A day? A day for non-emergency medical transportation. So the state will pay if you transport someone that's autistic to Target to get them groceries, 50 bucks a ride. And there's a website where the transportation company gets to log into the website and they're registered as one of the transportation companies.

1:07:39And they're like, I took someone from this place to Target. And you get, and you fill out all these forms and then you get a check immediately. It's a trust system? They never investigate. They don't audit. They don't check. Nothing. So Nick Shirley starts going around looking for the transportation companies. And it's like a liquor store. He's like, where's the transportation company? The liquor store guy's like, there's no transportation here. It's like a burrito place, like a deli. All of these places are just like transportation companies. Tens of millions of dollars a week just being given out.

1:08:12And by the way, this is not a race thing. It does no one any good to cast this as being a Somali thing. And that, I think, is what's getting everyone in trouble. No, it is. And by the way, it's what shuts off a lot of people to actually being able to look at the fraud. And it's not about the Somali people. It's about the fact that fraud is allowed by the government. And it's about the fact that the government either is implicit or complicit in this fraud. And I think that that's what people need to pay attention to and ignore all of the rattlings about what community or what group or who's doing it and just focus on the fact that the government lets this shit happen.

1:08:47If you think about the state of California spending$350 billion a year and you ask yourself the question, are those government agencies and the agents in those agencies doing their job of making sure that there's no fraud taking place? There is no way anyone's going to raise their hand and say, yes, they're great fiduciaries of taxpayer money. and that's what we should all be paying attention to and get out of the political divide on all this and the racism and all the bullshit and focus on the fact that the government does this shit. All right, everybody. Another amazing all in episodes. Thanks.

1:09:16Thank you for tuning in. Like, oh, by the way, guys, we hit a million subs on YouTube. They sent me a gorgeous plaque. I'm putting it up in my office. It's amazing. And they sent the million plaque. It's great. All the team autographed it and wrote a really nice note. Can I say something? Yeah. You're welcome. You're welcome. Jermon would like to say you're welcome. Jermon's like, you're welcome. All right. See you at Davos. Kumbaya, Davos. We'll see you there. We'll let your winners ride. Brain man, David Sack. And it said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you, Wes.

1:09:58I scream. I can't lie. I'm going to win. Let your winners ride. Besties are gone That's my dog taking a No, it's in your driveway Oh man My avatasher will meet me at once We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy Because they're all just useless It's like this sexual tension But they just need to release somehow Wet your feet Wet your feet We need to get merch Besties are back I'm going all in

1:10:38I'm going all in

From the publisher

(0:00) Bestie intros!

(4:18) Iran's breaking point: regime change coming?

(14:28) Solving energy prices: Microsoft first hyperscaler to "pay its own way" and subsidize residential electric costs

(31:18) OpenAI's compute deal with Cerebras, the renaissance in decode silicon

(35:09) Billionaire backlash in California: Wealth Tax exodus

(56:13) Greenland acquisition: Why it's crucial

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Referenced in the show:

https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-january-31

https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0364

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115884759090137876

https://www.ft.com/content/3f392c9b-c07d-42f5-b000-0a7347ad1ec0

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-forges-multibillion-dollar-computing-partnership-with-cerebras-746a20e4

https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/openai-signs-compute-deal-worth-least-10-billion-chipmaker-cerebras?rc=f8fu8f

https://x.com/chamath/status/2011486582386106387

https://x.com/friedberg/status/2011703965143220457

https://x.com/chamath/status/2011197387830935777

https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027

https://x.com/chamath/status/2011197387830935777

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