Americanswers… on 5 Live! What next after US government shutdown?

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1:14Hello, it's Justin here. Anthony and I have just come off the air with Matt Chorley, answering your questions, as we do every week on Five Live. It's been a typically busy week, of course. We're only at the halfway point, I suppose, but already been quite a lot of announcements in the US and abroad, announcements that have captured the attention of AmeriCasters. Not always a lot of detail to go on. So we try during this episode to understand why the US government shutdown has happened, what it actually means for people in America, why that US brokered peace deal between Israel and Hamas, or at least the peace proposals have suddenly emerged, what's going on there, and the wider situation in the Gulf as well, and the involvement of those states in all of that.

2:01We kicked off, though, with news about the shutdown of the US government, which obviously has a huge political impact, but also potentially an impact on individual Americans. And those two things, of course, are linked. So we began with that. Welcome to America Answers.

2:18America's America's from BBC News. When Donald Trump calls, they say, yes, sir. Right away, sir. Happy to lick your boot, sir. We are the sickest country in the world. Oh, dear. Are you worried that billionaires are going to go hungry? Of course the president supports peaceful protests. What a stupid question. Are you still talking about Jeffrey Epstein?

2:43Let's start with you, Anthony. What is the shutdown and what happens or doesn't happen? A shutdown basically happens when Congress fails to authorize government spending. Annually, it's supposed to put together what the government is going to spend on programs. And if that deadline expires and there's no new spending authorized, then the government shuts down. It's actually kind of a new modern kind of incarnation. We didn't have shutdowns for much of American history. But back in 1980, the Carter administration interpreted a federal law saying, well, without approved spending, the government will shut down.

3:23And so we've had a series of shutdowns starting mostly in the 1990s as kind of a political brinkmanship where one party may decide to try to block government funding or they have different priorities and there's disagreements. And you hit that deadline without without new legislation approved. And then you see government services curtailed. We're going to see public museums closed. Government workers either are told to stay home without pay or have to show up if they're deemed essential and work without pay. Even members of the military and the National Guard, in theory, could end up not getting paychecks if this government shutdown stretches long enough to the next pay period.

4:02Why does it happen? Because who's politically whose interest is it in to have all these people not being paid and services not working? Well, you know, it is a it is a way for a party, one of the parties to show their level of dissatisfaction with the way things are going, essentially. And we've seen some shutdowns recently. The most recent one was during Trump's first term, where it was Trump who was blocking government funding because he wanted more money for his Mexico border wall. A year before that, it was the Democrats who temporarily blocked government funding because they wanted some sort of resolution on the status of the children of undocumented migrants who had lived in the United States for a long time.

4:49We saw Republicans during the Obama years trigger a shutdown because they wanted Obamacare, the health insurance program that Democrats backed, repealed. So the reason you get shutdowns, basically, is one party or the other is trying to make a point. And this time around, it's Democrats who have declined to back a Republican spending plan that would essentially keep funding levels at their current level because they want health insurance subsidies that are set to expire at the end of this year continue. They want cuts to government medical programs for the poor to be restored. And they think this is a popular issue that is worth drawing a line over.

5:25And writ larger, I think they're members of their base and members within the Democratic Party who want their party to do something to try to stop and slow Donald Trump's seemingly relentless push to consolidate executive power and to shape American government essentially unilaterally. They want something to be done. And this is what they're doing for the moment. Just in the point that Kenny makes, it doesn't make for stable government, in his humble opinion. I mean, it's interesting. Does it or does it not? It makes a balanced government in the sense that they eventually have to find a way out of the shutdown.

5:58They always do. America doesn't completely close and doesn't completely, you know, people don't finally get thrown out of their jobs. although there's a bit of an asterisk on that because we might come back to whether or not that happens this time around. But, you know, generally speaking, they find a way through and you could say, well, actually, in a balanced system, that probably is the right way to approach it. And actually, you know, private America, money-making America, industrial America, normal America, pretty much carries on through all of this stuff. I mean, America is still an incredible engine of prosperity.

6:37and yet, as Anthony's just described, really since the Carter administration, it has been possible and there have been quite a few of them quite recently, as again he was describing. Has it had an effect on the United States, on individual civil servants who don't get paid until the end of the shutdown? Yes. Occasionally. I mean, there's a threat this time, isn't there, Anthony, that the air traffic controllers who don't get paid just start to go sick and then it does have an impact, a really serious impact on the US because, of course, so many people need to fly in order to keep... And you need a certain number of people for that to actually work in a way that other people might be able to cover jobs.

7:11So that's sort of the background on it. It's a really good question. Thank you for that, Kenny, on how these things work in general. But we've got another question on the shutdown. This is from Rob, who got in touch on AmeriCast's Discord server. Looks like there is another government shutdown. Trump is threatening this time to make vast layoffs and cuts to areas Democrats like if it happens. Does the president gain extra powers during a government shutdown to do that? or is there more Trump rhetoric with no basis? That's a really interesting one. And the answer is that they do have the power to do it.

7:41If you think back to Doge, this thing that we don't talk much about now, this effort, Elon Musk was involved in the fact he headed it, didn't he, to get rid of a load of civil servants, effectively. And that's the reason why, earlier in the year, the Democrats decided against forcing a shutdown because they were worried that a lot of people would lose their jobs permanently. This time around, that is the threat. that people, and that's the big risk for the Democrats, that actually a load of people are thrown out. And actually the kind of the central functioning of the administrative state, the Republicans hate that the Trump administration hates, all these people beavering away in agencies doing this out of the other, they just get rid of them and really make a fundamental change to the United States.

8:26And they do, as I understand it, Anthony will correct me if I'm wrong, I mean, you know, it would all go to court because everything goes to court. But at the moment, they think they have the right to do that. Right. And the Democratic response here will was and has been, well, the Trump administration's already doing that. Those doge cuts you talked about, Justin, they were made without a shutdown. They already the Trump administration already slashed government spending, not in a shutdown situation, laid off a bunch of government workers, despite there not being a shutdown. Now, what the Trump administration is saying is that there's even more power to do this now because it essentially will show who is essential and who is not.

9:05And with funding expired, they can just more easily shutter government programs and layoff workers. Democrats say, we'll see you in court. They're trying to call the Republican bluff. But to talk about what the presidential power is in a shutdown, it really it has been and it still is to determine who is essential and who isn't. What government services need to stay open, even without pay for the employees and which ones can be shuttered? And so that does give Trump and the Republicans a leg up in kind of managing how this shutdown plays out. And they're going to do so in a way that causes the most pain possible to Democratic priorities, Democratic programs and the least pain possible to what the Republicans want to do, such as immigration enforcement and collecting tariffs and the like.

9:50Right. Let's move to international affairs. The week began with Donald Trump announcing a framework agreement for ending the Gaza war. So Barry in Costa Rica has sent us this question. Donald Trump and Netanyahu have now presented a plan for peace within Gaza. This plan was presented without Hamas's agreement. And Trump suggests that if Hamas does not comply, the US would fully support Israel's ongoing military action. Does the team believe that this is a serious attempt to achieve peace? and, dare I say, showboating to support Trump's claim to secure the Nobel Peace Prize. Where to start with this?

10:30Justin. Does he want the Nobel Peace Prize? Yes. And he keeps saying now that they won't give it to me, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. But he obviously does want it. And he annoys him that Obama got it. For, I mean, what he would argue, and I think a lot of, well, I remember, actually, the Obama administration people I used to talk to were pretty surprised by. I didn't think Obama had done anything to achieve it. It was incredibly early in his time in office. But also, you know, you could also argue, I think, quite cogently that Obama failed to do things in Syria that he originally said he was going to do to stop the use of chemical weapons, that he didn't respond very much to what Russia was doing back in the day in Crimea.

11:10And that actually, you know, you think of what Mitt Romney said about Russia being a threat and Obama effectively laughed at him and all the rest. So did all of that, should all of that led to the Nobel Peace Prize? I mean, you could argue about it. So and Trump does. So, you know, he does definitely want it. The extent to which what he's doing in Gaza is genuine. I mean, it's obviously genuine in the sense that it's embarrassing for him if it all just falls apart completely. But how much he really is invested in the detail of it. Yeah. I mean, you could certainly argue probably not much. I mean, it's hard to have a peace agreement when you have that agreement only with one side in the war, right?

11:52Although there is some progress, I think, that has been made because the Trump administration pulled in Arab partners, the Gulf states, and has apparently secured some agreement to work in the context of these negotiations. So it's not entirely one sided. But obviously, some of the details of this 20 point plan, such as disarmament agreement on by Hamas of giving up power entirely. It seems unlikely that they are going to agree to that when Israel has not made firm commitments for withdrawal or even a ceasefire going into it. I don't know what you think of this, Anthony, is a really interesting executive order that Trump's just brought out.

12:34effectively, kind of seemed to me like sort of Article 5 guarantee of the future security of Qatar. So they've said, I can't remember the exact terms of it, they said effectively an attack on Qatar is now an attack on the United States. I'm not quoting directly, but that's the effect of things. Which, hang on a second, Qatar, I mean, it's, when you think of those who criticize Qatar would say, number one, that it's way too friendly with Hamas. Hamas leaders obviously live there famously because Israel tried to kill some of them recently. But also it has a wider involvement with Hamas. So why is Trump suddenly being so pallid to Qatar?

13:12He forced Benjamin Netanyahu to apologize to them for the military action that they took in Qatar, etc., say he'd never do it again. And you do wonder whether that is part of something to encourage the Qataris to put pressure on Hamas and for Hamas to be able to see, whoa, we haven't got any friends left. This is the end game. I don't know, Anthony, am I reading too much into that executive order? But it's really striking. Yeah, I think it was interesting. And obviously, the Qataris have played a key role as intermediaries in these negotiations. That was a role that was really kind of thrown into doubt when Israel launched a strike on Hamas representatives who were in Doha, in Qatar.

13:57So I think this is a response to that, to try to smooth things over, to allow them to feel comfortable serving as an intermediary and being able to help broker a peace agreement. But you've got to remember, this isn't a treaty. This isn't a mutual defense pact that would be approved by the U.S. Senate. This is Trump giving his word, essentially. And that is only as good as Trump's word can be and will only last as long as Trump is president. So that may help the Qataris feel like it will deter Israel from doing something similar. But it is not going to be a solid long-term guarantee. The team are going to be talking about this more in the extended podcast version of this episode.

14:44So if you want to hear more from Justin and Anthony talking about Trump's plan for Gaza, you can hear that on AmeriCast when it lands a bit later. Right. Yesterday in the US, hundreds of military leaders from across the world gathered to hear Donald Trump and his Defence Secretary, Pete Hegseth, talk about standards in the US military and the President's latest plans to deploy National Guards, this time in Portland, Oregon. So let's listen to a bit of the President and Pete Hegseth. It's tiring to look out at combat formations, or really any formation, and see fat troops. Likewise, it's completely unacceptable to see fat generals and admirals in the halls of the Pentagon and leading commands around the country and the world.

15:23It's a bad look. It is bad, and it's not who we are. So whether you're an airborne ranger or a chairborne ranger, a brand-new private or a four-star general, you need to meet the height and weight standards and pass your PT test. And I told Pete, we should use some of these dangerous cities as training grounds for our military, National Guard, but military, because we're going into Chicago, very soon. That's a big city with an incompetent governor. Stupid governor. Stupid. It was striking that the speech was met by almost total silence of the audience. I don't think they knew what they could do.

15:57Sitting up straight and breathing in. You can't really hackle, can you, as the commander-in-chief? But on the other hand, you don't applaud either. Right at the beginning, he was concerned. Trump was concerned, wasn't he, that they were a bit too silent? I've never walked into a room so silent before. This is very... Don't laugh, don't laugh. You're not allowed to do that. you know what just have a good time and if you want to applaud you applaud and if you want to do anything you want you can do anything you want and if you don't like what i'm saying you can leave the room of course there goes your rank there goes your future but you just feel nice and loose okay because we're all on the same team and i was told that sir you won't hear you won't hear a murmur in the room.

16:41They said, we've got to loosen these guys up a little bit. He wanted them to cheer. And I was thinking they're not going to do that. That's not in the Constitution. They don't owe allegiance to him personally. It was the most bizarre thing. I mean, you can imagine the chatter. If they can have private chat about it all. Do military people have water coolers? They probably don't, do they? Well, not that. They're not drinking enough water. They're having too many milkshakes, according to Pete Hankseth. Anyway, we've had a question in from Evelyn in Whitstable. I'd like to know your thoughts on Trump's speech to the military yesterday.

17:15I made myself listen to it on Fox News. The intent, such as there was, seemed to me to be priming the military to take action against US citizens who are deemed to be an internal threat. Do you agree with that analysis? Yeah, I think that was probably the key part of yesterday's ceremony speeches. I mean, the Hegseth lecturing generals on being too fat and saying that we're aren't going to have beardos, people with beards in the military anymore. It was interesting, but it was when Donald Trump got up on the stage and started talking about how many of the people in the room were going to be in charge of taking care of the enemy of within, the internal enemies, not just the external foreign enemies.

18:00That was pretty remarkable to have him tell these generals that the military is going to be, in theory, used for domestic law enforcement. And even went so far as to say that the American cities could be training grounds for the U.S. military, for the National Guard. I think that is, once again, a reflection of Donald Trump's willingness to use the U.S. military, whether it's the National Guard or, in the case of California, use the Marines, to quell civil unrest. And despite the objections of some of the local officials and Democratic governors, I think there is concern. There has been concern in the past within the military about that use of their forces.

18:45There was certainly concern in the first Trump presidential term where Donald Trump wanted to deploy military during the Black Lives Matter protests. And members of his own military, leaders of his military objected to that. But you could see that Trump wants to keep pushing this. And one of the messages, I think, to the brass yesterday was either get on board with what we're doing or there's the exit. So I think that there is, you know, it was a notable development and another reflection of just how quickly things are changing here in the country as far as what the president was willing to do with American troops.

19:19And if you want to be conspiracy minded about this, you do look ahead to to what it's a year's time, isn't it? And just over a year's time when they have the midterms. And we've talked quite a lot about the midterms. And at the moment, the Democrats would be expected to win because that generally is what happens when you've got a president, one party, the other party does well, et cetera, et cetera. And the polls suggest that they are on course just about to win, but not much more than just about. And I think there is a real fear that he might be toying with not overtly kind of imposing some kind of martial rule, but just tipping as many balances as he can tip.

20:01And we talked a lot about gerrymandering and what was going on in Texas, what is going on in Texas, trying to make sure that the Republicans get more seats than they would do under the system as it is at the moment. whether there are other ways in which the Trump administration can kind of weight the scale in order that they do better in the midterms than they would otherwise do, and possibly even manage to keep the House of Representatives, which would be a staggering achievement. I'm using the word achievement with inverted commas. Because if it's achieved by tipping the balance. I think that to a lot of people who are worried about America, that would be the big worry now, that there are going to be all sorts of shenanigans over the next year.

20:49okay we've come off the air with uh matt chorley on five live and we are now anthony and i ready to talk uh not live as it were although i suppose it feels live to you anyway it feels live to us and as promised we're going to talk a little bit more about um donald trump's peace plan for gaza with an email that we didn't have time to get to with Matt. It's from Thaddeus, who lives in the southeastern United States. He asked this, when you hear about the US conducting peace in the Middle East and you see how much Trump's family is profiting off the deals that the US is making, are people just ignoring the fact, since it's expected he'll just sign a blanket pardon for his family for profiting off the actions of the president?

21:29When do people realise, Thaddeus asks, his interaction with the Middle East is not for peace but for profit at the expense of many lives. Anthony? We talked about the political equation in Donald Trump's assurances to Qatar, the defense assurances, but there is also a personal component to it. Donald Trump's business has interests in Qatar. I think they're planning a resort and golf course there, also elsewhere in the Persian Gulf. And this is one of the complicating factors of Donald Trump's presidency, his first term. And now in particular, his second term is that he's doing things. He explains them in kind of larger international relations and foreign policy goals.

22:16But he is also his personal businesses run by his sons are profiting from this. They're profiting from these investments in the Gulf. They're profiting from joint agreements, investing in cryptocurrency. and has made billions, at least on paper, billions of dollars from it. Now, whether there's criminal liability from that, whether there'll even be investigations into that, it's all kind of a gray area. But it is something that Trump's critics have pointed to as the possibility of ulterior motives in what's driving Trump's foreign policy. So as our listener mentions, as Thaddeus mentions, in theory, Trump could pardon, blanket pardon for any kind of federal criminal liability on this.

23:03We'll see if he decides to go down that route. But at least for the moment, it seems like people have bigger concerns than just Trump's businesses now. There are bigger things at stake here in the United States. I think particularly that point about the blanket pardons, who was he who set the stage for that? One, Joe Biden. And a lot of Democrats feel in those last literally last few days of the biden administration they just did all sorts of things that make it now really easy i mean he probably would have done it anyway frankly but make it really easy for donald trump at the end of his administration just to give complete blanket pardons to anyone who might have any kind of comeback over any of this i suppose they would also say that the closeness of them all including trump himself to the monarchies in the gulf has actually rather eased the way for diplomacy.

23:56I mean, the jury's out on that, I suppose. I mean, Qatar is an extraordinary state in many ways, as we've already discussed, but it's hugely involved now financially and obviously in London, but certainly in New York as well, but also in other parts of the United States. You know, there are cities kind of twinned with Doha that you wouldn't expect. I think one of them is Charleston, South Carolina. So there are all sorts of links that you think yes are questionable slash corrupt would be the accusation but actually what the trump people would say also potentially helpful to the united states and you know again and again anthony when when people are asked what is the most important thing to you politically this stuff doesn't come up and it has given him a leeway to do things that previous american presidents just would not have thought of doing.

24:51I mean, certainly in modern times, it is right to say, isn't it, that he has enriched himself to an extent that just would be unimaginable. Right. And think of all the hay that Republicans made of Joe Biden and his son Hunter and his business ties to Ukraine and to China and the allegation that the Biden family was was profiting somehow off Joe Biden's positions of power, even if Biden was not directly involved in that. Well, here we have, you know, clearly Trump's family profiting enormously from the fact that Donald Trump is president and profiting because not just foreign leaders, foreign countries might be directing money towards Trump's businesses in order to curry favor.

25:42But even here domestically, we just saw a settlement that Google, the company Google had, because of a lawsuit that Donald Trump filed against YouTube for the suspension of his account after the January 6th Capitol riot. Donald Trump is going to be pulling in billions of dollars in that settlement, which he is then directing to building this massive ballroom at the White House. And other settlements have led to contributions to Donald Trump's presidential library. So you see Donald Trump's position of power leading companies and businesses domestically and foreign to change their behavior and also to direct vast sums of money towards Donald Trump.

26:30And that is something that is, as you mentioned, Justin, truly, truly remarkable in modern American history and also one that doesn't seem to have generated the kind of discomfort, at least among members of Donald Trump's own party. I think we've got to go. There were great questions, all of them, including Thad or Thaddeus or Thaddeus. But anyway, thanks for that question. Fascinating. Just to say Friday's episode is going to focus, drill down, as the Americans say, on the Democrats. Because, of course, this shutdown that we've been talking about is as a result of a decision, a set of decisions they have made.