Americanswers… on 5 Live! Why has Trump changed his mind on Ukraine?

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1:19Anthony:It is back to normal for American Answers this week, which means that Anthony and I were with Matt Chorley for our live edition of the episode. So many stories going on as well. and we covered quite a range. The fate of the comedian Rosie O'Donnell's citizenship was at one end of that range. We also talked about Donald Trump joining the Chelsea football team on the podium for the Club World Cup final and a little bit about Canada as well. Plus this very important announcement that Donald Trump and the NATO Secretary General Mark Rutter have been making about weapons to Ukraine. so in a nutshell we're going to make top of the line weapons and they'll be sent to nato nato may choose to have certain of them sent to other countries where we can get a little additional speed where the country will release something and be it'll be mostly in the form of a replacement so we recorded the episode just before that announcement but we were talking about exactly those things so all of it coming up welcome to america answers on five live americast americast from bbc news you're gambling with the lives of millions of people you're gambling with world war three president trump's message is very simple we are done being taken advantage of mr president in the name of our god have mercy upon the people we're scared now are you supportive of these onesies i'm supportive of vaccines what is happening like this is not America!

2:50This is a terrible nightmare. This is what victory feels like. Yeah!

3:04Okay, we've got a lot of topics that we need to get stuck in today. Let's kick off with football or soccer, as Anthony would call it. Donald Trump's appearance on the podium at the Club World Cup final in New Jersey last night. Some of the Chelsea players looked a bit confused to be sharing their victory celebrations with the American president when they lifted the trophy. So we've had a question in from Brendan in Leckland who wants to know how Trump's policies might affect the World Cup when the FIFA World Cup is being hosted in the US, Canada and Mexico. So we've got a question here, Anthony.

3:40He says, with Trump continuing to increase the number of countries banned from travelling to the US, surely it won't be long before there'll be a travel ban on countries that criticize trump in his administration is there a possibility that some countries taking part in the football world cup in 2026 will boycott matches stayed in the u.s well if you do that you risk trump's ire definitely and it seems like most countries want to keep their heads down when it comes to that we've seen with these trade negotiations very few have have directly confronted trump they said They're going to keep negotiating.

4:12They don't want this to escalate. And skipping the World Cup, which Donald Trump actually has taken a lot of interest in and is very proud of being the host country for, skipping it would be instigatory to Trump. I think he wouldn't take it well. And while there are countries that are concerned about sending their nationals over here and questions about their immigration status and whether they'd be allowed into the country, I think that the Trump administration is going to take pains not to create a scene when it comes to the World Cup. It's too big a priority for Donald Trump. Because he likes a big sports event, a big hullabaloo, Justin.

4:49Anthony:Yeah, I mean, there are one or two countries where I suppose there could be quite poor relations by the time the World Cup comes around. The obvious one is Brazil when it comes to football slash soccer. One of the things, and we'll probably talk at some stage in a minute or two about what's going on with Ukraine, etc., etc., but just to link the two, there is a bill currently before the Senate that Donald Trump is now rumoured to be more supportive of that would allow the United States to impose very, very tough sanctions, like 500 % tariffs, on those countries that were still buying oil from Russia, essentially.

5:24Anthony:One of the big ones is Brazil. And if that were to happen, you know, relationships which are already very strained between Brazil and the United States would be considerably worse. So, I mean, there is plenty of room for real tensions. I think the question is right between some countries that will be big stars in the tournament and the United States and Donald Trump. You wouldn't necessarily think that a tournament hosted in America would be the one that has previously been in another controversial place. You know, was it the last World Cup was in the Middle East? I know less about football than you do.

5:58Anthony:I know less than Anthony does, weirdly, actually. But, you know, when Qatar got the World Cup, there was a big debate. But the fact that America is now... And in the end, it just goes ahead. And it just goes ahead. And there's a little bit of somebody feels like that, you know, on the edges, feels like they have to speak out. But, you know, people try to separate sport. But Donald Trump... Isn't the entire game completely dominated by money and by people who are allegedly corrupt? I'm using that word allegedly. You did say allegedly. Allegedly corrupt, who have been, at least in the past, associated with the sport at the highest level.

6:29Anthony:So I just think when it comes to kind of principles and World Cup football, then not necessarily we'll be in the same pocket. But the fact that the whole thing's been held in three different countries, I mean, there's already a logistical issue there regardless. Well, they may well be at war. Yeah, US, Canada and Mexico. The borders might not necessarily... First, we don't need to look any further than Canada, really. Yeah. How do you get from Canada by then? it'll be difficult to get from Canada to the United States. Well, we'll see how that pans out. Let's move on and talk about Ukraine then.

6:57We're anticipating some big news from Donald Trump, who's indicated he'll make a major statement today on Ukraine. Last night, he said that sophisticated military equipment will be heading to Ukraine, including Patriot air defence missiles. It's interesting because he's previously been quite critical of Ukraine. He's since made no secret of his frustration with Putin over the possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine. This is what Donald Trump told reporters on Sunday. I haven't agreed on the number yet, but they're going to have some because they do need protection.

7:26Anthony:But the European Union is paying for it. We're not paying anything for it. But we will send it. It'll be business for us. And we will send them patriots, which they desperately need, because Putin are really surprised a lot of people. He talks nice and then he bombs everybody in the evening. So there's a little bit of a problem there. I don't like it. So we've had this question in from Sasha on the Discord, who's asked a question about what exactly sophisticated weapons means. When Trump says he will send sophisticated equipment to Ukraine, does he mean that he's found some patriots to send over?

8:02Anthony:Or is he using the first word that comes to his head, and by sophisticated he just means walkie-talkies? Or is he just blowing more hot air and nothing will happen? Thank you. So this is interesting, Anthony. Let's deal with the specifics first of what we think is actually going. He's there basically saying that he's not doing out the goodness of his heart. He's just selling Europe some of these missiles. Right. And he mentions Patriot missiles there directly. So I think we can count on the fact that there are going to be at least some Patriot missiles sent over. And he is trying to distance himself a little bit.

8:34He criticized the Biden administration for just giving Ukraine all of these billions of dollars of military equipment. And what he was saying there is that Europe is going to pay for it. So what's going to happen is the European Union reimburses the United States for this military equipment. The United States sends it to Ukraine. And one of the concerns has always been that the EU doesn't have the kind of arms manufacturing facilities that the United States does. So the United States is the only nation in a position to provide these sorts of armaments to Ukraine. And this is kind of a workaround, a work through that allows Trump to still keep a little bit of a distance from this and not go directly back on his criticisms of the arms giveaways and his view from the Biden administration, but still do something to support the Ukrainians.

9:23Because I think it's pretty clear now listening to him that he is getting frustrated with Vladimir Putin. And he did say a lot of people were surprised that Putin wasn't living up to his word. I think a lot of people in this case just means Donald Trump, but he is starting to sour a bit, it seems. We've all done that. A lot of people are increasingly annoyed.

9:42Anthony:Yeah, I think Anthony's dead right. I think it's a big turning point. And I don't think, you know, Sasha's question sort of implies that maybe this doesn't add up to much. I think it does actually add up to something. And you could say, you know, if you don't like Donald Trump, you could say it was all about personal peak. It's not about geopolitics and a kind of wise appraisal of the situation. But whatever it is, he's annoyed, hacked off. There are ruder ways of describing it, too, with Putin. And he wants to send the signal. And the Patriot batteries, you know, they're probably seven or eight, I think maybe slightly more already there.

10:15Anthony:So I'm not sure they'll give numbers. But, you know, if they add another three or four, it's quite significant and could make a really significant difference. The other thing that they talked about is offensive weapons, more offensive weapons that could actually reach targets in Russia. And that obviously is more difficult for Trump. And of course, then I don't want Anthony things that you then have the kind of the Steve Bannon wing, the MAGA wing of the party saying not only saying hang on a second, you told us you'd stop the war. But then when Putin says this is going to bring the world closer to nuclear disaster, which he may well do, then do they latch on to that and say, hang on a second, this isn't what our president, this isn't what we elected him to do?

10:58Anthony:Or do they allow him to go ahead because the personal peaking of their man is more upsetting than the idea that they're doing something that upsets the Russians? it's interesting that Anthony because I suppose if you take Donald Trump's aim was to end the war to end the forever wars and America not being constantly caught up in foreign wars and all that and he clearly made the calculation at the beginning that it was Ukraine were the problem Ukraine were the problem of continuing this war and he had to put pressure on them and that was why he gave Volodymyr Zelensky the dressing down and the Oval Office and all that and now he's come to the conclusion that actually maybe it is Putin who's the problem and he's not seeing sense and ending it but still his ultimate aim is he wants to end the war.

11:38He doesn't want long term American resources going to conflicts a long way away from America. That's still ultimately his is America first aim, isn't it? Right. I mean, here, lo and behold, maybe it's the country that invaded Ukraine. That was the one that is is the problem here. But, you know, if you go back and listen to our intro clip that you played at the beginning of this this segment, where it was Donald Trump talking about the risks of World War III, telling Zelensky in that Oval Office meeting that this could escalate. And that's why Zelensky, who he said didn't have the cards to negotiate, needed to go to the table and make concessions.

12:13And you saw the administration over the course of the past six months put pressure on Ukraine, cutting off arms funding for a little while, cutting off intelligence sharing for a little while, forcing them into direct negotiations with Russia. It took all these steps. And now this does seem like a pretty significant U-turn in that policy. And it will be an interesting test, as both of you pointed out, whether Trump's base follows along with this, whether they say, OK, we are sick of Putin, too. We need to do this. Or they start to wonder whether Donald Trump is getting co-opted by the military infrastructure establishment that they were worried about to begin with.

12:53Well, we'll see. Again, we're expecting that announcement imminently as when he's up and about in the White House. So we'll be interested to see what Donald Trump's got to say about Ukraine. Yeah, watch what they say and watch if there's sanctions included. Yeah, exactly what's followed up. Let's turn our attention to tariffs. We've had lots of messages in about tariffs. Last week, Donald Trump announced he was delaying his reciprocal tariffs until August the 1st and then announced a new set of tariff rates for countries including Canada, Brazil, Japan and South Korea. and then he ended the week by threatening 30 % tariffs on the EU and Mexico.

13:26Let's go straight to a question that we've had sent in by an American listener about these letters. Hello AmeriCast, it's Bob in Minneapolis. I enjoyed last week's tariff discussion but one of President Trump's comments confused me. He said his letters told each exporting country how much that country must pay for the right to sell products in the US. I thought the importing entity, that is Target or Walmart or Best Buy, pays the tariff and most likely passes some of the cost on to me. Who's right? Great question, Bob. Good voice as well, Bob. I could listen to his voice. Gosh, Bob should be in radio.

14:02He has a great radio voice. Great. I was just thinking he could be doing audio books, Bob. We'd love some more Bob. Bob's right, though, isn't he, Anthony? Yeah, he is. I mean, that's a big debate, right? If you ask Donald Trump and the administration, they say, no, no, oh, the American consumers, the businesses aren't going to be paying the tariffs on this end. It's going to be the exporters, the countries and their businesses that are going to eat these tariffs in order not to drive up prices that is going to just cut into their profits. And they're the ones paying for it. Now, most economists will say that's exactly wrong, that companies, because the margins are so narrow, they're never going to be able to eat all of these.

14:41I mean, a 30 percent increase in the cost of their goods. They can't just swallow that. they are going to have to pass that along to consumers, and you're going to see prices go up in the Best Buys and the Walmarts and the Targets here in the United States. And we've seen some evidence, even in the tariffs in the first Trump presidential term, on things like washing machines, and starting to see some now that prices are going up, although inflation hasn't spiked the way I think some people thought they would. It's taking a little longer for it to work through the system. But if you see these 30%, 10 % to 30 % tariffs on all of these products from major exporters like Canada and Mexico and the EU and South Korea and Japan.

15:24If they stay in place for months and start to really settle in, then I think there's no way you will not see an increase when you're going to the stores here in the US.

15:35Anthony:And just on the technical point about who pays, Bob is entirely right, obviously, But just to reinforce this point, a tariff is not paid by the country that is exporting the thing. The thing leaves that country. The thing is then put in a ship. The thing then arrives. And whoever has imported it pays the tariff and already is. I mean, quite a few. And then they're making some money out of this. Not most economists would say nearly enough to offset the various disadvantages of doing it. But nonetheless, they are making real money. But that money is being paid. And yes, if it's Walmart who directly, I don't know how they do it.

16:11Anthony:It may be that they have a shipper that brings it in and they have to pay the actual money. But someone is, I mean, in America, because they still write checks, cutting a check because you're so backward, Anthony, when it comes to the international financial system. But someone is paying and real money is changing hands and it's a tax is going to the American exchequer and it's going from the company that is bringing the thing in. So dead right. So well done, Bob. Bob's asked a question, he's answered it himself with his excellent voice. Let's turn our attention to the state visit. So we've got more details of Donald Trump's second state visit to the UK.

16:46He's going to be here from the 17th to the 19th of September. It's all going to be happening in Windsor. By total coincidence, the House of Commons will be in recess for party conference season then. So it seems unlikely the President will get a chance to address MPs and peers as President Macron did last week. so there's clearly a juggling act going on here, Keir Starmer needs to give Donald Trump the biggest state visit experience possible without any trouble, without any protests without upsetting domestic situation

17:20Anthony:and you wonder behind the scenes whether they've said to the Trump people look this is a situation we'd personally love you and I don't know that they've said this but say they've got Peter Mandelson the ambassador or someone smooth to say to him behind the scenes or to his people. We would love it if you address Parliament. It'd be great. But actually, it's not that big a deal for us and it probably shouldn't be for you. And also, there is a risk, a real risk, that it gets derailed by some MPs who want to shout out or something. I think a lot of Trump would think, bring it on. I'd love that and I'll shout back.

17:53Anthony:But maybe behind the scenes, the view of his coming on the state visit, he loves the dignity of it. He loves all the trappings of it. He loves the royal side of it. And actually, this probably isn't such a big deal. So if it was seen in any way to be derailing it, maybe he's been quite easy to suggest that it wouldn't be a good idea. Is that right? Anthony, talking about the state visit, is there a sense of excitement, interest? People following this in the US, the US audience likes the royals? I think there still is a very big interest in the royals here in the United States. People eat all that up.

18:32They like the pageantry. And Donald Trump is first among them. He likes the spectacle of it. He likes the ceremony, the pomp and the circumstance. I think he would be much more interested in going to Windsor Castle and being around the king and having all the ceremony there than speaking to a bunch of grubby members of parliament who might heckle him. I don't think he's going to be losing any sleep over not being able to address Parliament. Maybe there's a certain part of him that likes the kind of Churchillian moment to bask in the reflected glow of the storied halls of Westminster. But I think he is much more into the British royalty side of it.

19:14So I don't think there's going to be. I mean, I understand what what Farage is saying there. And I understand that that he perceives this as as a slight and a way of kind of delicately handling the situation. But my instinct is that on on the American side, they're just going to be perfectly happy to to have their their royal turn and put on their their tuxes and be feted out in the countryside. He loves his rallies. He loves addressing rallies of adoring fans and, you know, workshopping his gags and all of that and his lines. But would he want to do a sort of standard elector, you know, speech to the Westminster Hall?

19:50I'm not sure if this feels like his vibe. Yeah, I think it's a good question. I mean, he does. And he has sometimes enjoyed the kind of confrontational speech where he gets up in front of the UN and tells them all off. You know, I think it's more fraught here because he does have warm feelings for the United Kingdom. And generally, he has been sympathetic to them. And he likes Keir Starmer, despite the fact that, as he likes to point out, you know, there are different political ideologies. But he still has a good personal relationship with him, it seems. And so I think, you know, that may not be the goal in this case.

20:24He wouldn't want to go there and wag his finger. He would want to be received well. And that, as you point out rightly, it may not necessarily be the case. I mean, Parliament is a raucous kind of an environment, even more so than Congress. And when a president, an American president speaks to Congress, sometimes that doesn't turn out all that well. Yeah, but at the moment anyway, it doesn't look like it's happening. Finally, I want to talk about just briefly about Rosie O'Donnell, because Donald Trump is a comedian. and listeners might not know, but Rosie O'Donnell's a comedian. Donald Trump is threatened to remove her US citizenship, posting on Truth Social at the weekend.

20:57Because of the fact Rosie O'Donnell is not in the best interest of our great country, I'm giving serious consideration to taking away her citizenship. She's a threat to humanity and should remain in the wonderful country of Ireland. If they want her, God bless America, in capitals. It's after she posted a TikTok video last week criticising the Trump administration's response to the Texas floods. Well, Hattie Midnight on Discord has been in touch, saying, why is Trump stressing about what Rosie O'Donnell does? She's been in Ireland since January. When was she last on US television? Or is social media so important now, she only needs to post a TikTok to get him rage-posting?

21:31What happened to the media not responding to every little crazy thing he posts on social media about? I suppose the problem is with everyone. I suppose the first question, Anthony, is can the president withdraw someone's US citizenship? And the easy answer is no, no. An American could renounce the citizenship. It could be revoked if an American goes abroad and commits treason, for instance. But just living on foreign soil is not enough to give grounds for revocation. It's not within the president's powers, particularly for someone who is a natural born U.S. citizen like Rosie O'Donnell is. But I suppose it tells us something about how just constantly online he is, Donald Trump.

22:08Anthony:Also, how obsessed he is with her. Yeah. I don't know an awful lot about it. But Anthony, wasn't it the first debate where it was Megyn Kelly, wasn't it? I asked him, what was it? You describe women as fat pigs or something like that? And he said only Rosie O'Donnell. Is that am I misremembering? That is exactly right. That was the very first right out of the gate question, the very first presidential debate or Republican presidential campaign debate in 2015. And it was Megyn Kelly asking about Trump's misogyny and quoting these lines that Trump said about women. And Trump's quip was only Rosie O'Donnell.