Is Donald Trump close to finishing his war with Iran?

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0:30business needs in one place, saving you time, headaches, and serious money. Stop paying for missing pieces. Go to odoo.com. That's O-D-O-O dot com to learn more. With the new Schwab Teen Investor Account, teens can gain hands-on investing experience and build positive money habits. It's an account co-owned by you and your teen, so you can monitor and engage with the account while your teen learns how to invest and manage money. Learn more at schwab.com. The latest on Donald Trump's war on Iran that he called Operation Epic Fury. Well, according to his latest post on social media, it might be over.

1:08Or is it? It's been a very, very confusing few days where we have seen the United States launch a new operation to try and get ships through the Strait of Hormuz, then abandon that operation and then say talks are going well. They might be near the end of a war, but at the same time threatening to start bombing again. So we want to unpick amid all the claims and counterclaims and U-turns what's actually happening, where Donald Trump might take this from here. And as gas prices in the United States are reaching new highs and voters are really feeling the pain, is it possible for Donald Trump to extricate himself from the war that he started?

1:45Welcome to AmeriCast. AmeriCast. AmeriCast from BBC News. You hear that sound? Oh, I think when I hear that sound, it reminds me of money. We didn't start this war, but under President Trump, we are finishing it. This is a big cover-up, and this administration is engaged in it. This guy has Trump arrangement syndrome. I have four words for you. Turn the volume up.

2:16Hello, it's Sarah in the BBC's Washington Bureau. And it's Anthony, right here next to Sarah in Washington, D.C. It's always nice when we're face to face, Anthony, at about quarter to 10 in the morning here in Washington. So coming up for three in the afternoon in the UK on Wednesday. And I tell you that time because we're going to be talking about the war in Iran. And for the last few days, this has been a complex, confusing and pretty fast moving story as we get different statements from the administration all the time about what's actually going on there. So the first thing we ought to do, Anthony, is clarify where we are here and what's happened in the last few days.

2:52It was Sunday that Donald Trump put on Truth Social that he was launching something he called Project Freedom. And this was an American attempt to try and get some of those ships that are stranded in the Strait of Hormuz through sailing the world, dispensing oil and other goods that are trapped there, try and limit some of the economic damage that's being done by this. But he didn't give us very many details about how that was going to work. No, not many details. And the thing you have to remember is that these ships have been stranded in the Persian Gulf going on two months now. So the White House and Trump were characterizing it as a humanitarian issue as well.

3:24These people are on these ships. They're running low on food. They're running low on supplies. And so the United States was going to do this as an American gift to the world. Now, yesterday morning, Tuesday morning, Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, and Dan Cain, who is the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, did another one of these early morning Pentagon briefings. And Hagseth was pressed on providing a little bit more details on what exactly Project Freedom would entail. Two U.S. commercial ships, along with American destroyers, have already safely transited the strait, showing the lane is clear.

3:59We know the Iranians are embarrassed by this fact. They said they control the strait. They do not. So American ships led the way, commercial and military, shouldering the initial risk from the front, as Americans always do. As a direct gift from the United States to the world, we have established a powerful red, white and blue dome over the strait. He was proudly announcing that on Monday, two U.S. flagships made it through the Strait of Hormuz. And that's a huge success that shows that Iran no longer controls the strait. Well, before the war, there were about 130 going through there every day.

4:37There are currently 1 ,600 ships trapped there. And in one day, getting two of them through, does that demonstrate that the U.S. controls the strait and not Iran? Right. And getting them through, and apparently they were harried by Iranian forces as well. Dan Kane talked about how there were some attacks by speedboats, by drones on these ships passing through, and that the United States responded, but that it didn't rise up to a level high enough to constitute a resumption of hostilities. But still, if you're those first two go through and you're all these other ships sitting in the Persian Gulf watching this, it's not going to encourage you to try to make that transit if, even with the might of the United States Navy behind it, they weren't able to get through totally unscathed.

5:22Now, a little later in the afternoon, Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, made an appearance in the White House press room, filling in for Caroline Leavitt, the press secretary, who is now on maternity leave. And, you know, Rubio is a contrast in styles from Hegseth, definitely much less confrontational, much more jovial with the press. But he was also asked to try to explain what this Project Freedom was. Here he is responding to questions. This is a defensive operation. And what that means is very simple. There's no shooting unless we're shot at first. So if you hear stories about attacks and launching of firing back and forth, it's not back and forth.

6:00If the fighting resumes, are you saying that it would resume under Project Freedom? And I ask as it relates to the War Powers Act. Yeah, look, the Operation Epic Fury is concluded. We achieved the objectives of that operation. I'm not going to, you know, we're not cheering for an additional situation to occur. We would prefer the path of peace. So that was Tuesday afternoon. We had two cabinet secretaries talk about Project Freedom. Guess what Donald Trump did just a few hours later on True Social? Project Freedom indefinitely suspended just 48 hours after he had announced it in a post on True Social.

6:38He said it was on hold for a short time at the request of Pakistan, which has been the mediator in negotiations with Iran, to see if there could be some sort of a negotiated settlement with Iran. So the United States was no longer going to try to protect the shipping going through, which means there was going to be no shipping going through. He also said that the blockade, which is preventing Iranian shipments from going through the Strait of Hormuz, was also still in effect. So all of that we just talked about, past 48 hours, now back on hold again. Yeah, I mean, I have to say, when I first saw that Truth Social post, and we can dig into what's going on in the peace talks and things in a little bit, But my first reaction was that that was basically a tacit admission, that Project Freedom, declaring that the U.S.

7:22was going to get ships through the Strait of Hormuz, was an abject failure. Two ships in two days is not going to make a meaningful difference to the price of oil or really allow the U.S. to say that they control the straits. Can we say it was a failure that for all that they could make announcements saying Iran is no longer in control, all that did really was prove that Iran was still in control? Right. I think the reality was, as we just discussed, probably most of the tankers were not interested in trying to make that run through the Strait of Hormuz. And without any takers for Project Freedom, there is much of a reason for the United States to try to continue.

7:58It kind of reminds me of the Kennedy Center, right? The Trump administration, Trump said, we're going to bring all these new acts into the Kennedy Center. We're changing the name of it. And then when nobody decided to start doing gigs and other other acts were cancelling their appearances. Well, then Trump said, well, we're closing the Kennedy Center, so we can't do anything anyway. So it's kind of a tacit admission that what they were trying to do didn't work. So they found some way of saying, well, we weren't going to be able to do it anyway and move on. Yeah. And so that throws the ball back to the diplomatic process, to talks.

8:31And let's just catch up with where we are with that, because there have been various discussions back and forward. The latest was that Iran, end of last week, last Friday, put forward a 14-point proposal for how they could see the war coming to an end. And Donald Trump's response to that over the weekend was to say that it wasn't satisfactory, it wasn't good enough. The real stumbling block is still whether or not Iran is prepared to negotiate on its nuclear program. Talk about stopping or limiting uranium enrichment. Talk about possibly handing over to the US or to a third country the stocks for enriched uranium that they already have.

9:05They're wanting to talk about just the Strait of Hormuz, about get that settled before they even start talking about their nuclear program. But of course, it's the nukes that led Donald Trump into this in the first place, and really the only thing he wants to talk about. Right. If all they do is reopen the Strait of Hormuz without dealing with the nuclear program, then we're just back to where we were prior to the start of the Iran war. The way Rubio in that presser yesterday explained it was that the goal of the war was to remove the defense shield around Iran's nuclear program, that basically we're going to destroy all these conventional forces that Iran had, the ships and the air force and the missiles, and that way their nuclear program and their nuclear research facilities would be exposed if the United States had to step in and try to stop it if they broke their promises.

9:52That is a very different kind of a way of framing this war than we heard in the early weeks where Donald Trump was talking about regime change, was talking about doing away with Iran's nuclear program permanently so they could never restart it again, that there would be some sort of a fundamental shift in Iranian government and that people would rise up against the Iranian regime, which last time I checked, Sarah, is still in power. Yeah. So this morning, Donald Trump brought us up today because it is a great window into his thinking, isn't it? Truth Social, so that we can always learn how he's feeling at any moment of the day.

10:28and this morning he told us assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to which is perhaps a big assumption the already legendary epic fury will be at an end and the highly effective blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be open to all including Iran and he went on to say if they don't agree the bombing starts and will be sadly at a much higher level and intensity than it was before. The idea there that if Iran agrees to what has been agreed to then epic fury which is what he called the war, essentially, will be at an end, does sound as though he's incredibly optimistic about talks. We've been here before, it has to be said, with these signs of optimism.

11:08But is there any reason to think that we might be getting closer to something that they could at least call a deal? I don't know. I mean, at least Trump in that post acknowledged that it might be a big assumption that the Iranians are going to abide by whatever agreement they struck. There was a report in Axios this morning, an online political news site that said that they had coalesced around, the Iranians and the Americans had coalesced around a 14.1 page memo that dealt with Iran giving up, suspending nuclear enrichment and its nuclear program, that the strait would be opened up to all traffic, that the United States would lift sanctions on Iran.

11:50I don't know how much you could get into in one page and how much that would actually firmly resolve the differences and provide the kind of assurances that the United States is seeking with regard to Iran's nuclear program. But at least it might provide enough of a framework for both sides to say, OK, this is over and then let the negotiations continue. But again, Sarah, if we just get back to the way things were two months ago with negotiations continuing over the details of how Iran may or may not be conducting its nuclear research, what was the point of all of this? The administration, the Republican Party, has paid a huge political price for this war.

12:31And if all they get out of it is, well, we sunk the Iranian Navy, we blew up their planes, they have fewer missiles because we blew them up or they launched them at all of the Arab partners in the Gulf, that isn't much of a success by any measure. And really, it's just a list of things to talk about rather than things to agree, isn't it? Yes, we will discuss the nuclear program. We will discuss the Strait of Hormuz, all of the things that need to be sorted out. They're suggesting that there's a possibility that what might be negotiated with Iran is that it would put a moratorium on uranium enrichment for at least 12 years, maybe 15 years, with the US asking for 20 years.

13:10That's not what Donald Trump went into this about. He wanted to put a permanent end to their nuclear program, no enrichment activity whatsoever. This is sounding an awfully lot like what Barack Obama agreed with the Iranians back in 2015 an agreement that was ripped up by Donald Trump in 2016. And he says there's a reason he needed to start this war. Every other administration, like Barack Obama, has put together a terrible agreement with Iran. Only he can fix this. Right. A moratorium with a time limit is not what Donald Trump wanted. But it was exactly what, as we've discussed in past episodes, exactly what was in that joint Iran nuclear deal.

13:47Now, I'm just watching my computer here. We're getting little notices popping up. And Donald Trump apparently just spoke with the New York Post. And he said it is too soon to start thinking about face-to-face peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, although he is still optimistic that they are close to some sort of a framework to end the war. When asked whether the paper should send reporters back to Pakistan to prepare for a new round of direct talks, the president responded, I don't think so. I mean, who knows? I mean, this is, as you mentioned, we've been here before. It seems like over the past two months, there have been these flurries of what seemed like progress on negotiations, that things are getting close to development.

14:32The price of oil comes down and the stock market goes up. And then within a couple of days, we start to unpack what really happened. And the reality is that we're right back to this kind of extended stalemate where Iran is suffering, clearly under the blockade that they're not getting the oil revenue they once did, but they aren't suffering so much that the regime is collapsing. And the Trump administration, the rest of the world, the global economy is also suffering from the strait being closed. And that is starting to exact a political price on Donald Trump. I tell you, Sarah, I was just up in Pittsburgh this last weekend where the price of gas at pretty much any station in the city, is over$4.65 a gallon.

15:17So even more expensive than here in the Washington, D.C. area. I believe the average price of gasoline nationwide is approaching$4.50 a gallon, which is up about 50 % from before when this war started. And that is a very tangible sign of what the cost of this war is for American consumers. And there was a poll out just a couple of days ago where American approval for Trump's handling of the cost of living, of the cost of energy, was down into the 20 % range, which is just brutal for a president who campaigned on lowering the cost of living when he won the election in 2024. Yeah, because it's not just the price of gas or petrol, is it, which won't necessarily sound that high to some listeners in other parts of the world, but over $4 for Americans is painfully high.

16:06And it has knock-on effects as well, doesn't it? A lot of Food has to be transported via road. And so increased fuel costs, put prices on that. And it is food and gas that are the things that American voters are the most susceptible to. That's where they're feeling the pain. And that's where they're going to make Donald Trump feel the pain as well, if this carries on for very much longer. The most expensive price for a gallon of gas right now is in California. It's$6.16 a gallon. Part of that is because of gas taxes in California, environmental-minded gas taxes in California. But as I was mentioning in Pittsburgh, that's the western part of Pennsylvania where it's higher than average.

16:44It's higher than average in a lot of these Midwestern states, Michigan and Wisconsin and Ohio and Iowa. And if those names sound familiar, it's because that was the region that delivered the White House to Donald Trump in 2024. And this war is hitting the Midwestern states really hard when it comes to gas prices. It's also hitting the Midwestern states really hard when you look at the rising cost of fertilizer, which is exported from the Gulf. Farmers in Iowa, I was reading the New York Times story the other day about a farmer who voted for Donald Trump because he said he was going to be the president for farmers in the history of the United States.

17:21And he has been devastated by the tariffs, which has cut off his foreign markets. And now the rising price of gas and the rising price of fertilizer, he ended up having to sell his farm. You know, a lot of that is directly attributable to the policies that Donald Trump has put into effect. And these are some of the reasons, of course, why Donald Trump promised he wouldn't do this kind of thing and why very many people exactly like that former voted for him because they didn't want to see these type of forum wars that can have these consequences. But I've noticed the administration making a different argument in the last couple of weeks where they say, look, the economic cost of Iran having a nuclear weapon would be far, far higher than what we're paying short term, they say, at the moment in order to deal with this.

18:03And that it poses such a threat, not just to America and the region, but to the rest of the world, that there is no cost too high to stop them, essentially. And I'm not sure that this is an argument that is getting through to voters or possibly ever could. But Donald Trump clearly believes it because he was asked the other day about the low polling ratings that he's getting at the moment as a result of all of this. And he definitely was trying to make the argument that if people could see this as a question of the cost of Iran having a nuclear weapon, then they would answer polling questions differently.

18:33It's an interesting take, but have a listen to what he said. It's interesting. They did a poll on the war with Iran and they said only 32 percent of the people like it. Well, I don't like it and I don't like war at all, but we're equipped better than we have the greatest military in the world. Well, you saw what happened with Venezuela. You see what happens with everything. But they said 32 % of the people are against President Trump. Well, when you explain it, like, is it okay for Iran to have a nuclear weapon? It wouldn't be 32%. But even if you said that, they'd be a 32 % because the polls are fake.

19:09Our country's booming now, despite the fact that we're in a, I call it a mini war, because that's all they are. They don't have a Navy anymore. Think of it. But then 159 ships, like we have a war right now, and we're into like, what, six weeks? They said, what's taking so long? We were in Vietnam 19 years. We're in Iraq for many years, 10 years, 12 years. We're in all these different wars. Korea has seven years. I won't even mention World War II. That's a big baby. But you have the wrong person up here. You'll be in World War III. Sarah, not as long as Vietnam. I'm not sure that's a winning message when trying to defend or justify this war.

19:56Yeah, the question of the cost of the war is something that's very well worth looking at as well, isn't it? As we're going into the 10th week of it now, journalists have been asking ever since this began what the financial cost is. Finally, last week, a Pentagon official answered a question in Congress about that. So approximately at this day, we're spending about$25 billion on Operation Epic Fury. Most of that is in munitions. There's part of that is obviously O &M and equipment replacement. We will formulate a supplemental through the White House that will come to Congress once we have a full assessment of the cost of the conflict.

20:29So you're saying the full cost at this point is$25 billion? Yeah, that's our estimate for the cost. Okay. Interesting, because I'm glad you answered that question, because we've been asking for a hell of a long time and no one's given us the number. So if you could get those details over to us, that would be great. Early in the war, we heard a cost estimate of a billion dollars a day. The war has been going on now for 70 days approximately. So that would suggest a price tag closer to$70 billion, not$25 billion. So maybe some things that they're not including in that$25 billion list of such as damaged or destroyed infrastructure, American bases, for instance, maybe some other of the costs, not just of munitions, but of moving all the equipment around, of the personnel being paid overtime, of having to deploy all of these ships to the region.

21:20So I think 25 we might take as a low estimate, but it still is a remarkably high number when you think about all of the different cuts that the Trump administration did over the past year. $25 billion would get a lot of health care, would get a lot of food support. And I think Democrats are going to be making that point over the next few months. There is a big question hanging over all of this. Is the Trump administration prepared to launch more munitions at Iran? That was the threat in Donald Trump's Truth Social post this morning, Wednesday morning, saying we'll start the bombing again and it'll be at a higher level than ever.

21:55Pretty much everything he has done and said over the last week or so has made it pretty clear he's not eager to start a bombing campaign again. Yeah, and Marco Rubio on Tuesday saying Operation Epic Fury is over. Pretty definitive, like these major combat operations have ended. And when you say something like that, to turn around and go, oh, no, we're right back where we were two months ago with a full-on bombing campaign, I think that would make the American public much more uneasy about whether there is any kind of off -ramp any time in the future. Because the one thing they said, and I've talked to Republicans about this in the past, one thing that they were afraid of is a forever war.

22:37And just because it's a series of different named operations, one after the other, doesn't mean there's an end. It just means it's a forever war with a bunch of different names attached to it. So I think there is a very real political risk if they resume hostilities. I think the Iranians looking at this and looking at what Donald Trump has said and all these threats about blowing them back to the Stone Age and civilization erasure and then a bigger bombing campaign than had ever been started before. I mean, all of that makes them think that these are just bluffs and that the reality is that the United States doesn't want to start again and they're going to act accordingly.

23:14Yeah. So there's the different names of Operation Epic Fury. There's economic fury that's going on with sanctions, Project Freedom. But also I love some of the words that Donald Trump's been using recently. Mini war. We heard him saying earlier already. He started calling it a skirmish. I call it a skirmish because Iran has no chance. they never did. They know it. He'll call it anything except a full-scale war at the moment, which I think just demonstrates how much political damage this has been doing. They can spin it out for a while and say, look, we're in the process of agreeing a memorandum of understanding about what talks would be based on.

23:53Essentially, we're having talks about talks. That's fine. That sounds like a diplomatic process is in play. But there is a limit to how long the US can pretend that it is winning in any way at all if the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, isn't it? And I think what we've learned this week from Project Freedom is it's a lot harder to get shipping traffic moving through that than they hoped it might be, and that they may have to start giving concessions to Iranians if they want this open. Yeah, and Rubio in that press conference complained about what Iran was doing in the Strait of Hormuz, said that it was akin to piracy, that it was a violation of international law.

24:29He said he was going to go to the United Nations and try to get the Security Council to pass a resolution condemning what Iran was doing there. And I think that also is a reflection of the fact that this is proving to be a very real headache. And as we've mentioned before, this was a predictable headache for a lot of people who looked at the game planning of war with Iran and that that would be the most obvious Iranian response if they were threatened, you know, existentially threatened by a military campaign. And that's exactly what they did. And I think the Iranians realized that that is their pressure point.

25:04That is what they have influence over and what they can use to force the United States to make their own concessions. And they seem to want to be able to continue to exert influence over Hormuz, which Rubio said was unacceptable, that any kind of tolling, any kind of Iranian regulation of traffic going through Hormuz, the United States would not accept. But if that's the case, then they may have to give on other areas like the nuclear program or on lifting the sanctions that are currently on Iran. Yeah, it's interesting. A website seemed to be launched in Iran today that looked a lot like where you would go if you wanted to register to pay a toll to get through the Strait of Hormuz.