Is Trump taking advice from his wife Melania on Ukraine?

0:00This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK. Is the hit Netflix show Emily in Paris just harmless escapist TV or is Emily ruining Paris? I'm Asma Khalid and I host the Global Story podcast from the BBC. The president of France has described the show as super positive for his country, soft power through cinema. But is TV tourism good for a city? For more, listen to The Global Story on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

0:38BBC Sounds. Music, radio, podcasts. Before we get going with this episode, Sarah, Anthony, I have a question for each of you. When do you usually listen to AmeriCast? Let me put that to Anthony.

0:50Anthony Zurcher:I usually listen to it in the morning as I'm getting ready for a day's work. I'll go back and listen to the episode I did the day before. Maybe I don't always make it all the way through because I have a busy lifestyle, but that is my prime listening time. I listen to it on the bus on the way home from work normally. Oh, that's good. As long as we've had it published in time for when I'm leaving, which is about, I don't know, 11 p.m. UK time. Yeah, I'll just stick my headphones on on the bus. And Anthony, if you could change one thing, what would it be? I don't know, recording later in the day so I can have a more relaxed commute.

1:24I thought he was going to say, bring the worldwide headquarters to where it should be. But anyway.

1:29Anthony Zurcher:I mean, it already is here. Yeah, we know where the power really lies, Justin. Don't you worry about that. Look, let me draw a veil over that conversation there because the reason I'm asking those questions is that we do want AmeriCasters, proper AmeriCasters, in other words, listeners, not people who gabble on, to answer some of those questions. We want to know what you think of the podcast, what you like, what you don't like, what you want to hear more of, what you want to hear less of. So there is a link to the questions, a list of questions that's in the description of the podcast, or you could just type it into your browser.

2:02It is bit.ly forward slash AmeriCast feedback. Bit.ly forward slash AmeriCast feedback. OK, let's get on with today's episode. Yeah, today we're going to talk about Donald Trump's apparent change of heart over Ukraine. How far is he going to go when it comes to backing that country against Russia? And is he going to be able to bring Republicans in Congress and in his MAGA base along with him? Welcome to AmeriCast. AmeriCast. AmeriCast from BBC News. You're gambling with the lives of millions of people. You're gambling with World War III. President Trump's message is very simple. we are done being taken advantage of.

2:46Mr. President, in the name of our God, have mercy upon the people who are scared now. Are you supportive of these onesies? I'm supportive of vaccines. What is happening?

2:56Anthony Zurcher:Like, this is not America. This is a terrible nightmare. This is what victory feels like. Yeah!

3:13Hello, it's Justin in the worldwide headquarters of AmeriCast, at least for the time being, in London, England.

3:19Anthony Zurcher:It's Sarah in our BBC Washington bureau. And it's Anthony right here next to Sarah. Welcome back, Sarah. It's good to have you here in the worldwide Washington headquarters. I've been exploring the wide world of America on my holidays for 10 days or so. I was hiking through Yosemite and Sequoia National Parks, and it's breathtakingly beautiful. Why have you not been? You know, that's a good question. I've been all over this country, and that's one of the national parks I haven't been. I haven't been to Yellowstone either, so maybe I have a glaring hole in my national park journeys. The national parks are just about the best thing about America, don't you think, Justin?

3:52A hundred percent. I absolutely love them. I had quite small children, so our national park going was quite limited. We didn't do the kind of the really outlandish stuff, but just the space. And I think anyone who doesn't know America well won't get a sense of that incredible space and wildness that there is in the U.S. It just impressed me from the moment I was there and does still. And it's so much a part of the American experience, too. If you haven't been to the national parks, to the wildernesses, then you haven't really been to America. Anyway, while I was away, it seems that Donald Trump has done a 180 on Ukraine and Russia.

4:36I mean, it's quite remarkable in what felt like a very short space of time that I was on holiday. Suddenly, you know, preparing to send weapons, albeit getting Europe to pay for them to Ukraine. It's quite a remarkable turnaround, isn't it? I just want to say I got really got it in the neck from everyone when I said Melania Trump. This was on an episode, I think a year or so ago. I said Melania Trump was a feminist icon and everyone complained, including my own daughter, who wrote to the program to say I'm an idiot and shouldn't be allowed on in the future. Actually, one of the things he said recently was he talks to Putin and he thinks he has a good phone call with him and then he gets home and Melania says to him, yeah, but they've just bombed another Ukrainian city, etc., etc.

5:18In other words, he kind of put it out there, didn't he? That actually, even at home, people are saying to him, hello, Donald, are you seeing what's really going on?

5:28Anthony Zurcher:Yeah, we have a clip of that, actually. On Monday, he was talking to reporters in the Oval Office. And here is what he said about Vladimir Putin. I speak to him a lot about getting this thing done. And I always hang up and say, well, that was a nice phone call. And that missile's launched into Kiev or some other city. And I said, strange. and after that happens three or four times you say the talk doesn't mean anything my conversations with him are always very pleasant I say isn't that a very lovely conversation and then the missiles go off that night I go home I tell the first lady and I spoke to Vladimir today we had a wonderful conversation she said oh really another city was just hit so it's like yeah look he's uh i don't want to say he's an assassin but he's a tough guy it's been proven over the years he's fooled a lot of people he fooled bush he fooled a lot of people he fooled clinton bush obama biden he didn't fool me but what i do say is that uh at a certain point you know ultimately talk doesn't talk it's got to be action it's got to be results and it's fascinating isn't it there's So much to unpick in that one clip, starting, of course, with I go home and tell the first lady.

6:45And you wonder how often he's actually able to do that, as she doesn't seem to be in the White House terribly often. But the crucial bit of that, of course, is where he's saying, look, Putin fooled Clinton, Bush, Obama, Biden. He didn't fool me. Well, this reversal surely has come about because he does feel that he's been made a fool of, that he was so convinced he could persuade Vladimir Putin to do a deal that, as we know, he spent the election campaign promising he'd do it within 24 hours. And it's turned out that, yeah, he's been playing him all along as well. And that's what this is about, isn't it?

7:17It's about Trump's bruised ego.

7:18Anthony Zurcher:Yeah, it's the culmination of buildup that has been happening over time. And I think it was back in April where Trump posted on social media that he was afraid that Putin was tapping him along. And then when we were in the Middle East with him, he said that he couldn't strike any kind of a deal on Ukraine until he sat down and talked face-to-face with Vladimir Putin. Well, that meeting hasn't happened, and I don't think that Vladimir Putin is interested in having that meeting. And I think now Trump is finally coming to the realization that Putin is tapping him along. I mean, when your wife tells you you're an idiot, or indeed your husband, if you're in a position of control, it does have an impact on you.

7:58I think there's a real sort of human side to this, that it's coming quite personally close to home. Plus, of course, politically, there are probably within the old Republican Party, and the old Republican Party still exists, particularly in Congress, an overwhelming number of senators and congressmen and women who would take the view that if we are absolutely going to be humiliated by Vladimir Putin, We have to, in the old-fashioned sense and in the old-fashioned way, we have to stand up to him. We can't just let it happen. And it's really interesting, isn't it, that there is this bill before the Senate, which we've talked about before, that has sanctions in it.

8:43Sanctions particularly, actually, on countries that do business with Russia rather than Russia itself. But sanctions that would potentially, or tariffs that would potentially have an impact on Russia's oil exports. And that bill is ready to go. and the majority leader, so Republican John Thune, telling Fox News' special report just this week, they are ready to go when Donald Trump says do it. At some point, there's got to be leverage on Russia. And right now, they are continuing to fire into areas where they are killing innocent civilians, and they don't seem to be willing to negotiate. And so there are many of us, and Senator Graham has a bill up here which has 85 co-sponsors that would put tough sanctions on Russia.

9:28Why not move that forward? Well, we will. The president, I think, has decided to move sort of unilaterally on that front, both on sanctions and with respect to weapons delivery to Ukraine. So I think he understands what it's going to take to get the Russians to the table. We want to work with him and be partners on that. And when he greenlights the legislation, we'll move forward with it.

9:47Anthony Zurcher:All right. So let me take a bit of a cynical view here. What Thun is saying is he's going to hold off on this overwhelmingly popular sanctions bill in the Senate, one that actually has backing in the House of Representatives as well. He's going to hold off on that until Donald Trump tells him to move. And Donald Trump, despite all this talk about Russia, hasn't told him to move. In fact, he said that he's giving Vladimir Putin 50 days. In the meantime, this bill is on hold for 50 days. So let's watch and see whether Trump unilaterally, as Dune says, puts in sanctions, whether Trump really does start sending these advanced weapons, the Patriot missile batteries to Ukraine, or if it's just another delaying tactic on Trump's part.

10:29Well, let me lay some cynicism on top of yours, Anthony, and pick that apart. So those 50 days that Trump has given Vladimir Putin, why? If he was deadly serious about this, why doesn't he just say, let's do it tomorrow, or let's do it in 10 days or something? He could equally well do that. Two weeks. Exactly, exactly. Donald Trump's favorite period of time when he doesn't know what to do. Give me two weeks. And let's look at those sanctions, which, OK, he's not even pressed the button on yet. Secondary sanctions, because there's almost no trade between Russia and America. So there's no point in putting sanctions on Russian goods.

11:00So you would say countries that are buying Russian oil, essentially, will be sanctioned with their trade with America. Well, those biggest buyers are India and China. Those are not two countries that he wants to upset his trade negotiations with by suddenly imposing 100%, maybe even 500 % sanctions on them for buying Russian oil. The Markets don't believe it. You could see that and what they did with the oil price. I mean, Justin, do you believe it that he would actually take action against India and China to punish Putin? Such a good point, that, because nobody believes it, do they? Because nobody believes anything he does about tariffs.

11:32Although, you know, it has to be said that there are tariffs and they are making real money from tariffs. So there is stuff happening, but it's almost as if the stuff that is happening is now not noticed by people around the world because they're so used to things being slapped on and then slapped off again. And I think you're exactly right. I think it's entirely possible that right up to the moment he did it, people wouldn't believe that it was going to happen. And even when he did do it, particularly, as you say, with China, but also with India, I think they want to have good relationships with India.

12:07They do. They say they're on the verge of a trade deal with India. They think that's going to be the next big trade deal that they get across the line. Yeah. So the idea that they suddenly interfere with that through some desire to get at Russia through the back door, I think it's not a great stick to be waving, frankly. I don't think that works. And I'm interested. I mean, I don't know what both of you think about the kind of wider politics of this within MAGA world, because we've just done an episode, Sarah, which you weren't here for, as you were still in Yosemite, I think, where we're talking about Epstein and what MAGA makes of that and how potentially serious it is for Trump.

12:47I just wonder as well what you both reckon to what the kind of threat of retaliation by Russia, of the relationship that many MAGA people quite want to see being successful between the United States and Russia, if that seems to be going up in smoke, is that a problem for him?

13:09Anthony Zurcher:Yeah, one of the things we talked about with the Epstein case was that it was just part of a larger puzzle that Donald Trump is confronting here, where he is moving away from his base. And he's moving away from his base he did on the Iran military strikes, which seems to have blown over now because it was limited and it didn't lead to a wider conflict. But he's moving away from his base on arming Ukraine. And you saw people like Marjorie Taylor Greene, the firebrand congresswoman from Georgia, who is a big Donald Trump supporter, criticize Trump, saying that this was not a war they support. This was not their fight.

13:42Anthony Zurcher:You saw other members of Congress who are also expressing some doubt about whether this is an America first foreign policy where you're sending more weapons and more money, even if you're saying you're selling it to Europe, you're committing more resources to the Ukrainian fight. And J.D. Vance is actually an interesting one to follow, too, Trump's vice president, because he had been an outspoken critic of supporting Ukraine and was the instigating factor in that blow up in the Oval Office earlier this year. And so here's what Vance had to say about that back in May. There's fundamental mistrust between Russia and the West.

14:21It's one of the things the president thinks is frankly stupid that we should be able to move beyond the mistakes that have been made in the past. But that takes two to tango. I know the president's willing to do that. But if Russia's not willing to do that, then we're eventually just going to have to say, this is not our war. It's Joe Biden's war. It's Vladimir Putin's war. It's not our war. We're going to try to end it. But if we can't end it, we're eventually going to say, you know what, that was worth a try, but we're not doing it anymore. The thing is about that clip that we've just heard from Vance, there are two bits to it, aren't there?

14:50There's the business of this is not our war and we could wash our hands of it and all the rest of it. But the first bit, he's talking about getting over the mistrust between Russia and the West. And that's another aspect of this, isn't it? That there is this kind of sense among some around the Trump administration, if not Trump himself, because maybe he doesn't really think about it in these terms, but that the West has become decadent and that Russia, in a sense, is a more civilized nation or is upholding aspects of civilized behavior, manliness and all these things we've talked about in the past.

15:27And however kind of caricatured and odd it might seem to a lot of people, there is this kind of sense, and J.D. Vance has expressed it more in the past, hasn't he, that they're kind of ambivalent when it comes to seeing Russia at all as a bad player on the world stage, that they don't want to be there. They're having to be dragged there.

15:46Anthony Zurcher:Right. And that's why it was such a challenge for the right in this country to come to grips with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, because there was all of this sympathy going back to Donald Trump's first term and even before that, that Russia was an upholder of kind of conservative values, of religious values, pushing back against this kind of humanistic, liberal, anything goes mentality of the West. And you've actually heard Vladimir Putin try to tap into that a little bit, too. He gives some speeches that sound like it was taken straight out of CPAC talking points, something that a right-wing influence would say about how horrible liberalism has corrupted culture and values.

16:29Anthony Zurcher:So there is this kind of a synergy that is there waiting to happen if Donald Trump and the right can just find a way to solve this pesky situation in Ukraine.

16:44OK, let's turn to our wildly popular series now of what are we missing? So stuff that is not necessarily about Donald Trump, but is potentially very important. Sarah, kick us off. There's a really fascinating story going on in Texas, Anthony's homeland, of course, where they are attempting to redraw the boundaries of the House of Representatives seats there. Now, this happens, of course, you know, all over the world. is perfectly normal as populations shift and people redraw electoral boundaries. But they're doing it not just after a national census. So it's not the right time to be doing it at all.

17:19And that's really nakedly political. They're basically trying to create five new seats that would pretty much all be Republican and might just allow Republicans to hold the balance in the midterm elections next year, meaning that they could maintain their majority in the House of Representatives. Now, there's a lot of pretty nakedly political boundary drawing goes on in the US, but I think this is a bit more egregious than usual. And it opens the window on how this goes on all over the country. Texas is such a fascinating place. I mean, this legislative session, they hardly ever meet anyway, do they?

17:50How many days do they sit in Texas?

17:52Anthony Zurcher:Yeah, Texas, they only meet every other year. Now, sometimes they call special sessions for emergencies and things like that. But yeah, they are the citizen legislatures. They go back to their used car dealerships and cattle ranches and whatever else Texas politicians do. I'd heard rumblings about this happening for some time now. And there was pressure from the Trump administration to do this because next year may not be a good year for Republicans and they need House seats wherever they can find them. They think they can really squeeze a lot out of this because Hispanic voters have been trending to the right.

18:23Anthony Zurcher:If they draw relying on those Hispanic voters in Texas, they might be able to dilute some of their really strong conservative districts and push some of the Democrats out of office. Isn't there a risk though, Anthony, that they overstep the mark and mess themselves up because i mean you talk about hispanic voters trending right and all the rest of it they've got to get people to the polls and we've been mentioning a few times recently things that may persuade people they can't be bothered to vote republican this time round so i just wonder whether they might have shot themselves in the foot in a sense by diluting where they need support and going overshooting going for something that they don't actually get because of that, quite crucially.

19:04Anthony Zurcher:Yeah, when they drew those seats in 2021, they did so to protect their incumbents, which incumbents like to be protected. They were very happy. It was, if they do cut it too fine, there is the risk that next year is such a big wave year for the Democrats that it swamps all of these districts they were hoping to win and they may lose more than they thought. The other kind of interesting dynamic here is you see Gavin Newsom, the governor of California say, well, if Texas is going to redraw their lines, then California should redraw their own lines to make more Democratic seats there. Now, California had a ballot measure that set up an independent commission that tried to remove politics from this.

19:43Anthony Zurcher:So the maps there are drawn to be more equitable and less politically biased. My home state of Virginia now did the same thing. New York did the same thing. Actually, it's been Democratic states that have been trying to remove politics from this line drawing, which now a lot of Democrats, a lot of liberals are saying was unilateral disarmament because you see Florida and Texas and other states come in. So this is all stuff that is, you know, big, complicated political mess. What have you spotted, Justin? My spot is Anthony Bernal, who is, well, he used to be known as Jill Biden's work husband.