The Democrats are back… but will it last?

21:49He has a following and I think it's been a real challenge for conservative leaders to come to grips with this and the role he plays in their movement.

21:59Anthony:Okay, so to sum it up, Republicans in a bit of a mess, Democrats really enjoying themselves And we haven't said that, either of those things, actually, for some time, which is a very good moment in which to introduce Jim Messina, a great friend of the pod, great friend of the Democratic Party, of course, because, as I was saying right at the beginning, he was deputy chief of staff to Barack Obama. He then ran Obama's 2012 re-election campaign, which was, of course, a huge success. Although at the time, people said, oh, goodness, he's going to wobble and he might not make it all the way through, etc., etc.

22:34Anthony:Eventually, he did, and he did pretty triumphantly. And Jim is in Montana. Jim, hello and welcome to the podcast. Thanks for having me. How are you feeling? Better than I was on Monday. Feeling pretty good about the results on Tuesday. They were kind of better than even the brightest predictions. So it's a fairly interesting week to look and see where my beloved country is. What do you think we should all be taking away from the elections? What are the key things that you think people who have a real interest in American politics, as everyone who listens to this podcast does, what are the things that you would point to and say, aha, that really matters?

23:16Look, I would say three things. First of all, Donald Trump's overall approval rating really matters. If you look at the two big governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey, he was underwater by 15 points. His approval rating on the economy, which is why he won the presidency last year. Remember, he beat Kamala Harris on who's better for the economy by double digits. His approval rating on the economy disapproval rating is now 60%, including 66 % with swing voters. And those swing voters who voted for him really thought he was going to go in there and focus solely on the economy. And we can argue whether or not this is his fault or not.

23:55But the American view is that he's done a lot of foreign policy stuff. He's done a lot of other things. There's lots of chaos. We've got a government that shut down and he's not focused on the economy. And the first thing is voters send a very clear message to him, which he seemed to have gotten from his tweets, that they're unhappy. The second thing is the Democrats ran really good candidates who didn't focus on the social issues that our party has been obsessed with and instead focused straight on affordability and economic issues. And, you know, these are really different candidates. Abigail Spanberg in Virginia is from a very different wing of the Democratic Party than Mondani in New York City.

24:37But they both focused on pocketbook issues of affordability, housing, child care, etc. And when Democrats win the economic argument, and I've been saying this on your podcast for years, we win the election. And when we don't, we don't. And so we were able to do that. The third thing I think is really interesting is the coalition that President Trump built with these young voters who were, you know, historic, huge Obama supporters. But then he won young men. And that coalition is really about him and not his party. Mondani won young men by 40 points. Sheryl and Spanberger won young men by double digits.

25:20And so the question for the Republicans and Democrats is who's going to win this emerging coalition. And it's really important. These young voters who voted for Ronald Reagan in 1980 stayed Republican for the rest of their lives. The young voters who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 have stayed Democratic. And so, you know, both parties are really heavily contesting these young voters right now. And last night they went back to the Democrats.

25:48Anthony:Yeah. And another group that went back to the Democrats that people have really been interested in, isn't it, is Latino voters. See, this amazing blowout. I mean, Donald Trump got a bigger share than any other Republican in history, didn't he? And certainly in recent history of the Latino votes, like 46 percent. And yet this week they've either stayed at home or they've gone back to the Democrats. I mean, how sure are you that the changes, particularly in New Jersey, that you saw in the Latino vote are really significant? Not sure at all. I mean, they're certainly important for her and she did a great job.

26:24But, you know, you had this right, which is about turnout. Right. And the turnout was historically big for a non-election year, an off-year election year. It was the biggest in New York City since the 60s. It was the biggest in Jersey in, I think, 30 years. So it was big, but it's not like a big general election, midterm election turnout or a presidential election turnout. And so, you know, Donald Trump built the modern campaign for him on getting this massive turnout. And the Republicans have been unable to replicate that in smaller elections. Democrats tend to do better in smaller turnout elections because they have higher educated voters who vote more, especially women, the heart of the Democratic Party.

27:13And so last night, Mikey Sherrill did amazing, or the other night, with Latino voters. But the actual number of voters she got of Latinos would not be enough in a big general election in 2026 or 2028. And so Tuesday night was wonderful for the Democrats. But I don't want us to get too happy. And the reason is, if you think about it, one, it's very unclear whether we can replicate these wins in a bigger turnout election. And two, overall, our brand is about as popular as charging a beer tax or in our country a tea tax. You know, the Democratic brand sucks. And Tuesday night did nothing to improve that.

27:58Now, normal voters who are general election big voters in 2026 and 2028 still do not like the Democratic Party, and they still don't like what we stand for. They like some of our candidates like Mikey Sherrill and Abigail Spanberg and Mondani, but they still don't like the overall brand. And unless we can do overall what we did on Tuesday night, which is be very clear about what we're for economically, I still think we're in for tough times in the future. Yeah, Jim, I've seen some studies saying that if you ask people about particular candidates, if they have Democratic attached to their name, that can cost them 10 to 15 points of support versus the same candidate profile if they're listed as being an independent, which shows you just how damaged the Democratic brand would appear to be at the moment.

28:47And I'm wondering to what extent either these victories show us that that's changed or help to change that perception that the Democrats now represent the higher educated, higher earning folk and that it's Republicans that lower earning working class voters have been turning to and who represents them. Did anything happen this week to tell, I guess, the people who might consider themselves to be Hillary Clinton's deplorables that the Democrats are interested in them after all? Not yet. But it's proof that candidates matter and campaigns matter. So in Virginia and New Jersey, we were able to do that because we ran, you know, tens of millions of dollars of ads and had two great moderate candidates who really focused on the economy.

29:30But in the other 48 states, they didn't see anything yet. And they want to see it. And you have it exactly right. Part of the decline of the modern Democratic Party has been we are unable to win seats in red states with these voters that traditionally have been Democratic voters. And, you know, this was until the most recent election, Labor's problem in the UK, right? But Labor managed to fix that with some of the Brexit voters. We've not yet done that in some of these places. And if we are going to win the House of Representatives, which I think is the most important thing in the world for the Democrats to put some check on Trump's power here, we've got to win in tough districts.

30:12And I don't think last night, you know, solved that. I think it showed what you need to do. And I want to shout out Mondani, too. You know, although he's a very different kind of politician, and I don't think the way you win in New York is the way you win the House of Representatives. He was a good lesson for the Democrats for two reasons. One, he focused on affordability, just like Spanberger and Sheryl. And two, he had the most innovative use of social media since a guy that we all know as Barack Obama. I don't want to compare Mondani to Barack Obama because I don't think they're anything alike.

30:45But he's done the most interesting social media stuff I have seen. And everyone ought to look at him and say, you know, how do you communicate a message? And so I think those are good lessons. But I don't think it does anything to fix our overall problem, to your smart point, that a whole bunch of voters in those states that we're going to need still sit there and say, I am not sure what the Democrats stand for. But Mamdani ran such a good campaign. He drew attention nationwide, worldwide, actually. People were paying attention to him. And now you've got Republicans salivating about the fact that he has such a high profile and they think such left wing policies that they can use him to tar the entire Democratic Party as being unacceptably to the left when it comes to next year's elections.

31:31Yeah. And they definitely tried that in New Jersey, right? They were flying banners over the Jersey beaches all summer saying Mondani equals Cheryl. Most of their ads at the end were trying to tie her to Mondani and it didn't work. She won by double digits. And so, you know, and that's right there. And typically those swing Jersey voters that I know so well in the suburbs really hate the mayor of New York. but they were unable to do that because she focused on pocketbook issues, which is what Democrats have to do. They will absolutely try that. And they tried in some of the elections all over the place in doing some of that.

32:09You know, they went back to the trans issues, trying to win elections like that, and it didn't work. And, you know, I think for a second, we should talk about the breadth of this win because it wasn't just in the states you and I were just talking about. I mean, we won the first two non-federal statewide races in Georgia in 20 years. We got rid of the filibuster in the most ruby red state of all of Mississippi. We built a super majority in Virginia. There were election wins all over the country, which goes back to my earlier point. It's not just about our brand because we haven't fixed that. A lot of this was voters sending Donald Trump a very personal message.

32:52And by the way, they sent Barack Obama that same message. You all will remember I was in the White House then. In 2010, we lost a historic amount of seats in Congress. We lost control of the House. And Barack Obama went on national TV and said, I just got a shellacking. And no one thought he could win reelection. And two years later, he won handily. So it is just another reminder why Democrats need to celebrate with one glass of champagne, but not two. Yeah, we looked at some of those down ballot races. The Supreme Court, State Supreme Court in Pennsylvania was another one. But as I was looking through them, I saw one place where actually Democrats didn't do all that well.

33:28And that was in Long Island in Nassau County. And I used to work for a Nassau County member of Congress. So, you know, the politics there a little bit. But Republicans actually trounced all of the local Democrats running in that county. What's going on there? And is that a warning sign for Democrats? It is. And it was a warning sign for the New York governor in her 2026 reelection. That was a proof of the old Tip O 'Neill adage, all politics is local. That was about the commuter tax and the anger of people in some of those places who, even though the commuter tax has been on and off and changed five times, they sent a very clear message that they were very unhappy.

34:11And those are the same kind of suburban voters that we did really well with in New Jersey. And to your smart point, we got our ass kicked in New York, in Long Island, a place that I cut my political teeth in. And they sent a very clear message that they are unhappy. And Governor Hochul has got to figure out how to communicate to them about these issues in two years. Yeah. And you said the way that Democrats can take back control, the Congress, the House of Representatives, winning red states and running good candidates. So there's a politician who won in a red district and was a young, charismatic candidate, Jared Golden in the south of Maine.

34:52That was a Trump district, very Trumpy district. He just announced in an op ed that he's not going to be seeking reelection. What do you think the thought was behind that? And is that a warning sign to Democrats? It absolutely is a warning sign to Democrats. Here's a 43-year-old politician who used to be a Republican, became a Democrat kind of in the Obama years and won a very difficult seat and held it through good times and bad and just got a primary from the left. People saying, oh, you're not liberal enough. You know, we've always, when we win as Democrats, we are the big tent party. And we have people like Mondani and Abigail Spanberger.

35:36We have people like Bernie Sanders and Jared Golden. Like, we can have both of those. And that's how you win in America. The way you win in my home state of Montana is different than the way you win in Long Island, New York. And that's OK. But there's a very boisterous, I think very small minority, but pretty big amount of people in Washington, D.C. that seem to want to have a purity test. And, you know, you can have that test. You're just going to be in the minority for a very long time. And in some ways, that's how we got Donald Trump, too. Yeah, I've noticed that some papers and news websites are already listing all the potential Democratic challenges for the nomination for 2028 off the back of this week's elections.

36:18And it's a widespread of names and many, many more will join in before we get to that point. As the party needs to pick its next nominee, can they have a sensible debate, do you think, Jim, saying exactly the things you have? We need to be a big tent party and field candidates who are ripe for the states and the districts that they're in? Or is there going to be a kind of civil war for the soul of the Democratic Party to get to a place where they get rid of purity tests, where they get rid of an obsession with social issues and can concentrate on a simple economic message? Is it going to be tidy to get to that point?

36:50Or does there need to be a real internal battle first? Well, a famous man once said he wasn't a member of an organized political party because he was a member of the Democratic Party. So, you know, we make everything messy. But here's the great thing about the Democrats and why I love them so much is we really love to win and we really love to govern because we understand what governing is. And so, you know, we went through this purity test in 2020, we had all these really exciting candidates like Bernie Sanders, like Mayor Pete, like other, et cetera. And then kind of in the course of 48 hours, the entire Democratic Party decided the only candidate that could beat Donald Trump was Joe Biden, and he became the nominee and beat Donald Trump.

37:34And so I think that electability is going to be really, really important for the Democratic Party in 2028, because I think they have seen just unprecedented damage by what Donald Trump has done to this country. And they look at J.D. Vance as a mini Trump, and they're going to do whatever they can to stop him. And so I think that there's going to be a real focus on who can build that coalition. That said, it's going to look messy for a while. I've now met with over 20 people who think they're running for president of the United States. A lot of them are not. They just don't know it yet. But, you know, it's an open race with no incumbent and no favorite.

38:21And so, you know, people should really look at it. I think the most important thing, and I say this to all of them, is, you know, focus on helping the Democrats win in 2026 so we can actually get the House back and have a fair election in 2028 and don't have Trump try to steal it. And so, and I think people get that. The thing I'm going to watch in 2026 is who all these candidates most want to campaign with them. Because in 2006, the whole world thought that Hillary Clinton was going to walk to the nomination. And you started to see all these candidates running who wanted this young unknown guy named Barack Obama to campaign with them, not Hillary.

39:01And it started to become the rise of Barack Obama. And so I'm really looking at who these candidates want to campaign with them. And so far, it's a really interesting mix of people that aren't leading in the polls. And so I think that'll be the first thing that your Very Smart podcast looks at.

39:20Anthony:It's funny that, Jim, we've got to let you go. But I remember being at a debate that all the Democratic candidates were having in that election you've just referred to that first time when it was Hillary and where was Obama? Who was this Obama and who were the others. Someone said it's like Gladys Knight and the pips. In other words, you know, there just wasn't anyone else in the fight, they thought, until, of course, they realized that wasn't the case. We've got to let you go there, Jim. It's such a pleasure to talk to you. Thanks. Thanks again enormously. And we'll stay in touch if we may. Perfect.

39:52Thank you all. Have a good day.

39:59He's interesting, isn't he? I want to know who the 20 potential candidates he's met with are. And more importantly, who he thinks has and has not got a chance. But of course, I mean, we've got three years to be talking about this, haven't we? Who's going to be emerging? Gavin Newsom, governor of California, often at the top of a lot of people's lists as a potential Democratic candidate for 2028. And what we haven't mentioned yet is that he had a pretty significant electoral victory as well with this Proposition 50, where he was asking California voters to allow him basically to change the electoral map to deliberately make five more House of Representatives seats winnable or almost guaranteed wins for the Democrats, which, you know, it was in response to Texas doing a similar thing.

40:46But I don't know. I don't know why voters aren't a little bit more queasy about such a very, very deliberate gerrymandering. Well, you talk about the overwhelming need to win the House of Representatives if you're a Democrat. And this is one of the ways they could do that. And I think there was a lot of concern among Democrats that what Texas had done is essentially helping to cement a pickup of three or four more seats, maybe even five there to give them a better chance of holding that House majority. the Democrats in California felt that they had to do the same thing. And it is in California.

41:20It's temporary. It's only for the next few elections. And then it goes back to the way it was before. And the boundaries are drawn by this commission in 2030. But but I guess it just tells you how much those Democrats want to win and how important they see control of the House of Representatives, control of any lever of power will be in next year's elections.

41:43Anthony:You know what? If we had a dinger, I would ding it now because I think we should make an announcement. We keep getting asked this question. Who's who's in charge of the Democrats at the moment? Who's the leader? Guys, we've got a leader. We've got a leader, at least for the time being, it seems to me. And it is Gavin Newsom. And it's because of what you've just been talking about. And it's it's not just because of that. It's because he took a risk in doing it. And I can remember, I think we even mentioned when he first announced that he was going to have this proposition that people said, oh, well, he might lose.

42:16Anthony:And there was money going into the other campaigns, et cetera, et cetera, to stop it passing. And he raised the money big time, really big time. And he went ahead with it and he won it hands down. Instead of agonizing over the state of our nation, we organized in an unprecedented way in a 90-day sprint. People from all over the United States of America contributed their voices and their support for this initiative. We stood tall and we stood firm in response to Donald Trump's recklessness. And tonight, after poking the bear, this bear roared with an unprecedented turnout in a special election with an extraordinary result.

43:05Anthony:And it will potentially have a real national effect because it could either rescue the midterm elections for the Democrats, if it's a bit tight, or possibly give them a much bigger majority than they would otherwise have. And it also might lead to further meltdowns in Texas, where, of course, all of this started in a sense, where the Republicans in Texas decided they wanted to do their own bit of gerrymandering. In other words, it is potentially something that has had huge national consequences. And he, the governor of California, Gavin Newsom, yes, he annoys a lot of Democrats. Yes, they say he's too smooth.

43:47Anthony:Yes, they say he's obviously West Coasty, which he is. Yes, they say, hang on, what does he stand for? Because he does seem to be able to drift about a bit in the wind. But actually, it just seems to me he's done something and done something really eye catching. And at the moment, if we're asked the question, who's in charge? Increasingly, I think that's the answer, isn't it? It's Newsom. I've seen a few liberal commentators say, well, maybe I was wrong about Gavin Newsom, that he has won them over. So it is it's been an interesting journey this year for him, starting with having Steve Bannon on his podcast and generating a considerable amount of hate from from liberals there.

44:28Some of his repositioning on transgender athletes in high school and in college sports generated a lot of controversy. It felt like, oh, he's tacking to the right because he wants to win a general election. But then, you know, there's that moment where after the fires in California, after the the Marines and the National Guard were activated in Los Angeles, where he kind of leaned into a fight with Donald Trump and started to kind of find his voice as presenting an alternative. And and you're right, I think he has he has encouraged a lot of people on the left to give him another look, which is quite an accomplishment.

45:07Yeah, I don't know. Do you think he wants an AmeriCast dinger, though, or a sting? The only two we've done so far have been for George Santos and for Elon Musk. So it's that company, Gavin Newsom. Herschel Walker, too, don't forget. Oh, yes. Sounds like a cast list for Gavin Newsom's podcast, actually. A reality TV show.

45:24Anthony:Yeah, that's it, guys. Anyway, we've declared a winner, and our winner is Gavin Newsom, the governor of California. That's just about it this time round. My goodness, there's plenty to talk about. We ought to come back, actually, in our next episode, or possibly the one after to what is going on in the Republican Party because that too is very interesting. But for the time being, bye-bye. Bye. Bye, y 'all. AmeriCast. AmeriCast from BBC News. Well done for getting all the way to the end of another AmeriCast episode. That makes you officially an AmeriCaster. It's not easy navigating your way through the news in America, particularly at the moment, but you did it and we're delighted to have you with us.

46:04so if you do have a comment or a question about any of the stories we've talked about or anything you'd like us to talk about do please get in touch you can email us americast at bbc.co.uk you can whatsapp us a message on 0330 123 9480 and we do answer your questions every single week on the podcast you can always join the discussion in our online community on discord the link is in our podcast description in your app and we'll be back with another episode very soon till then See you later. Bye-bye.

47:02American dream is alive but not well. For more, listen to The Global Story on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, I'm Simon Jack. I'm Zing Zing. And together we host Good Bad Billionaire. The podcast exploring how some of the wealthiest people on the planet made their money. And we are back with a new season. From sporting superstars to music moguls and celebrity CEOs.

47:25Anthony:We'll be taking a closer look at the lives and fortunes of some of the world's richest people. and asking you to decide if they're good, bad, or just another billionaire. Good, bad, billionaire from the BBC World Service. Listen now or search for Good, Bad, Billionaire wherever you get your BBC podcasts.

47:43How has America shaped the world? I'm Asma Khalid, host of the Global Story podcast from the BBC. As the United States marks its 250-year anniversary, we've been exploring the surprising and often hidden ways the U.S. has shaped the modern world. And today on the show, we answer your questions about this moment and what to expect in the years to come. From the BBC, it's the United States at 250. Listen to the global story on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

48:21Is the American Dream still possible? I'm Asma Khalid, one of the hosts of the Global Story podcast from the BBC. One of the most successful exports the United States has ever sold the world is the American Dream, that tantalizing promise of a better, freer, richer life. But is it still attainable? I feel like the American dream is alive but not well. For more, listen to The Global Story on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

49:10Good Bad or Just Another Billionaire.

49:12Anthony:Good Bad Billionaire from the BBC World Service. Listen now or search for Good Bad Billionaire wherever you get your BBC podcasts.