The Democrats need to win Michigan… so why is it splitting the party?

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1:25Michigan is ground zero for the Democrats when it comes to the fight that is taking place in the party over its future direction. It is also where a crucial Senate race is taking place, one that's dividing the party in a state that they can't afford to lose if they're going to take back control of Congress. Which direction then are the Democrats going to go in, in Michigan and beyond? Is it a preview of the battle still to come before the next presidential election? Welcome to AmeriCast.

2:17Words for you. Turn the volume up.

2:24Hello, it's Justin in the worldwide headquarters of AmeriCast in London, England. And Itzumi, also in the worldwide headquarters in London, England. Which is weird. I mean, it's wonderful, but it's also strange. It's really nice on this side, I have to say. I might stay. It is as headquarters go. This is quite voluminous, isn't it? It is. The chairs are more comfortable as well. Yeah, I've always felt that when I go to the DC office, really. It's something about old style England, actually, that we like to do in the worldwide headquarters. But anyway, you're very welcome, Sumi. It's really nice to see you in the flesh.

2:57And we're going to talk about Michigan just before we actually discuss why it's so important, just to tell people what is actually happening there. So there is this primary election on the Democratic side that is hugely important, isn't it? And it's taking place next week. And it's a primary election to decide who the candidate is going to be for the Senate seat. And the reason why it's open is that the Democratic senator is actually retiring. So is out of the picture. So it is an open seat. The Democrats have had it in the past, but they haven't got someone who has been the senator in the fight this time.

3:32So they've got to make a choice. And that person is they're going to face off against the Republican candidate in the midterm elections. So it seems to me there are two reasons why Michigan really matters, really matters a lot. And the first is simply that they've got to win it in the Senate race. It's Michigan. I mean, every election cycle we end up talking about Michigan. It's one of those classic purple states. It's a swing state. You have really progressive parts of Michigan, which I know you know from traveling through the U.S. as well. And you have really conservative parts of Michigan. And it has come back into focus because, of course, the tariffs discussion on the car industry, reviving American manufacturing, a lot of that discussion.

4:13We saw President Trump travel to Michigan, didn't we, just last week. So a lot of that discussion has been focused on Michigan. And because it's such an important state, you always see Democrats and Republicans pour tons of money and energy into winning that state. So that's the first reason. But all the more important in this midterms is the Democrats want to try to win the Senate back, don't they? Obviously, it looks like they have a decent path to win back the House of Representatives. The Senate is going to be a trickier, more uphill battle. And one of those crucial seats that they have to defend is, as you said, Senator Gary Peters, a long-serving Democrat, is stepping down.

4:48And so the race to replace him has become this fascinating battle on the Democratic side in particular. And once, of course, that hurdle is passed and they pick who will be on the ticket, then they move on, obviously, to the battle to keep that seat. But it just has raised the importance of the state once again. Yeah. And you mentioned the state is purple. They voted, Michigan voted for Trump, didn't it, in 24. But at the same time, you think of the governor level and to an extent, I suppose, in the Senate level as well. I'm trying to think whether there have been many Republicans from Michigan in recent years.

5:27In other words, I suppose what I'm saying is when you say purple, that mixture of red for the Republicans and blue for the Democrats, it actually really is, isn't it? People still, to an extent, even split their tickets. Yeah, that's what also makes Michigan so fascinating. As you said, they have a really popular Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, someone who's been talked about as a possible presidential candidate down the road and even previously. Some of that is the holdover of Michigan having this strong working class, you know, tradition that has been tied in the past to Democrats, unions and so on and so forth.

6:02And that has shifted in the Trump era, in the MAGA kind of more economic populist era as well, so that Michigan's colors have shifted a bit as well. But because of that past and that present, you get a mixed bag. And it's so rare to see a split ticket these days, but Michigan is a place where it happens. There are others. You know, Kentucky is a deep red state, but has a Democrat governor. Right. But it is in these times fairly unusual. Yeah. And when you come to the importance of this in the Senate, just to completely underline this point before we go on to the other reason why it really matters.

6:37If they don't win Michigan, they will not win the Senate back, will they? It's really as clear as that. Just as we were saying about the state of Maine and we did an entire episode on Maine and Anthony had been there and all the rest of it. And the Democrats have plainly got difficulties in Maine, though they could still win it. But they absolutely need to win Maine. They need to win Texas. they need to win Michigan? They do. In fact, you know, Republicans, as we know, they have 53 seats right now in the Senate. The Democrats have 47. So they need to flip four seats to be able to take the Senate.

7:07And if they are to have any chance to do so, they have to hold on to Michigan. They're looking at other avenues. Could they possibly win in Alaska? Could they possibly win in Iowa? But those are stretches. And being able to hold on to that Senate seat in Michigan is absolutely critical for any chance they have. Yeah. The other reason why it really matters, I think in a way is the more interesting one to people. So we can talk about the midterm elections and the need to win and all the rest. So people understand that. But the thing that is really interesting about Michigan that you couldn't really entirely say about Maine or about Texas or about some of the other places that they want to win this time round is just this incredible ideological clash.

7:51It's so clear, isn't it? And it matters this time round because it matters that they get a candidate who's capable of winning in November. But oh, my goodness, it matters in the longer term, the next presidential election. I think you could even make the case that it matters for the future of American politics because it's about whether the Democrats are going to be, in a sense, just throwing everything up in the air and going for a candidate who's outside the mainstream. I mean, it seems to me that they have a set of decisions to make, not only about policy, but about the degree of aggression almost that they show to the electorate.

8:28Say, come on, do this because this is the right way to do it. We're not pandering to you anymore because we're not interested in the middle ground. Or am I overstating it a bit? No, you know, we've talked in the past with the rise of President Trump about the soul of the Republican Party. Right now, we're talking about the soul of the Democratic Party. It is no less than that. You're absolutely right. I think this is fascinating to watch. And it has really riled the Democratic Party. I mean, if you look simply at the debates that they're having between lawmakers on what does the Democratic Party stand for, if it's a big tent party, who can be included in that tent and who cannot be?

9:05This is about the identity of the party. And, you know, there are a lot of questions asked after 2024 and indeed previous to that in 2016 when President Trump went as well as to which direction the party should head in. And the battle we're seeing in Michigan is precisely about that. Do the Democrats pick up a more populist, more progressive agenda? Or do they continue with more centrist candidates who they think might be able to win back some Republicans? It is fascinating to watch again. And I think, you know, you see the different factions of the party being played out on a national scale. And the perfect microcosm for it is in Michigan right now.

9:42Okay, so the two candidates, Abdul El Saeed, he's the progressive. He's a doctor, public health official, very, very good online. There's a bit of the kind of Mamdani. He's incredibly media savvy. He's great at interviews, absolutely, and debates as well as we're going to talk about. Yeah. And on the other side, Hayley Stevens, who, I mean, frankly, I know much less about. And that, in a way, tells you something about the two of them, because obviously I keep an eye on stuff and you see things online and you see debates and all the rest of it. But I still I can't entirely say that I know as much about Hayley Stevens.

10:16And I think for AmeriCasters who know anything about either of these things, it's probably be the same, that she has less of a profile, but a really important role now in this. She does. She does. So I've interviewed Haley Stevens a few times on a number of issues from Ukraine, where she's a staunch supporter of Ukraine, to tariffs, for example, because, you know, Michigan obviously hit hard by tariffs on Canada. And she is a dyed in the wool Democrat. She is someone who is a Michigander, as they call themselves. I'm probably going to get some angry emails now from Michigan saying, you pronounce that wrong.

10:48I'm from upstate New York. What can I say? But she has really built a well and base of support among kind of the traditional Democrat class in Michigan and has also worked with her fellow lawmakers on some of the more progressive issues in Congress. And that's something she's been pointing to. But, you know, she doesn't have, as you said, a national profile until this race. And if you look at the progressive side of it, Abdul El-Sayed has gotten endorsements from Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. So he's one of the faces of the progressive left wing of the party. Haley Stevens has almost been made out on social media, certainly, to be a caricature of the centrist Democrat.

11:34And she's almost, if you see in recent weeks, she's gotten a lot of sympathy for some of the criticism she's gotten online. You know, she was caught running down the halls of Congress and a reporter stopped her and she said, are you going to make fun of me again? Can I applaud you just for something? You're going to make fun of me on the Internet? No, the opposite. No, honestly, the opposite, because I saw that video, which was legendary. Thank you. I think it's widely considered like a legendary video. But do you know what I saw that you did? You took it and then we're like, you know, I'm going to lean into it and I'm going to make it a campaign ad.

12:04So tell me through that process. I am authentically Michigan. That's the deal. And look, this Internet, it's been I don't know. It gets wild. We all know that. But you know who I sound like? I sound like the people who I talk to in Michigan. And that clip went viral because she said, are you going to make fun of my accent because she has this real Michigan accent? And, you know, she has real Michigan phrases the way she speaks. But that appeals to people in Michigan because she's from there. And it's also made her, in a way, a sympathetic character to some who say, well, the progressive wing has really excoriated her for being a centrist.

12:42And that's unfair. Now, on the other hand, Abdul Al-Sayed's team and his supporters would say, well, she doesn't represent what people want to see right now. We ought to listen to the two of them having a go at each other just to kind of get a sense of what they say about each other and what they're saying about the future too. So this is Hayley Stevens, Abdul El-Sayed at their final debate. It took place on Monday. Abdul is running for celebrity. Republicans are propping up his campaign. And Mike Rogers just the other day said in a secret phone call that he makes it easier for him to win, that he's the one he wants to run against.

13:19I'm not a socialist. I'm just a capitalist who understands how capitalism works. The biggest threat to capitalism was never the idea of government regulation. It was always monopoly. So I just want to say the difference between us is$46 million of AIPAC spending. They've set a record in this race to help elect my opponent because they know that she'll be a reliable vote, just like she took last week to send your tax dollars to a foreign government that is aiding, arming and abetting the very people who want to foreclose on the possibility of Palestinian self-determination. This moment in this country and here in Michigan, people have every right to be frustrated about our campaign finance system.

13:58My opponent here on this stage, Abdul, he's got a super PAC that his father-in-law funds that has millions of dollars going into it. And look, in terms of foreign policy, you know, Abdul and I do differ. I believe in a two-state solution. He has attacked me by name for purporting that the people of Palestine and the people of Israel deserve to live side by side peacefully. The goal is always long term peace. And we should say they mentioned Mike Rogers. He's a Republican candidate and he's running on a post. So he's the person that either Haley Stevens or Abdul El-Sayed will face in the general election.

14:35But it is the issue of funding from AIPAC and the question of American support for Israel that once again, this massive foreign policy issue that has once again really driven a wedge in the Democratic Party. We ought to explain what AIPAC is, because it's been around a long time, hasn't it? But basically it funds candidates, it funds causes in the United States that support the state of Israel. AIPAC stands for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, for those who are not familiar with the organization. Yeah, and it's been around a long time. That's right. And it has supported a number of candidates.

15:08And of course, in the past, that hasn't been as much of an issue for Democratic candidates or Republican candidates. But in particular, since October 7th and the war between Israel and Hamas, and in particular, Israel's operations in Gaza and the killing of tens of thousands of civilians has really ushered in this new divide in the Democratic Party, where you still have those who support Israel and those who support Israel's actions and do receive money from APAC. That's Haley Stevens being one of them. And those who say we no longer will receive money from APAC and we don't support the state of Israel's actions in Gaza and now in the war in Lebanon as well.

15:45And that division, never mind the midterms, look ahead, look at the primaries for the presidential fight in 28. Can you imagine? I mean, it is going to be really bitter, isn't it? And very personal and very divisive. This just on the democratic side, this business of do you support Israel? To what extent do you support Israel? What do you think is acceptable? And they had a vote in Congress, didn't they, recently in the Senate where the Democrats split over whether to send military equipment to Israel. And in the end, it gets passed because the Republicans say yes. And some Democrats say no. And some Democrats say yes.

16:25And that's going to be the fight, isn't it, in the primary? It was an amendment to a national security bill, and it was an amendment that had been brought up by those who had been critical of Israeli policies. And the question was, would you strip Israel of not only military funding, but also humanitarian aid? And this was such an interesting vote to watch because you had Democrats like Nancy Pelosi who voted in favor of the amendment. And she said she had some qualms because she didn't want to strip the humanitarian aid, but it came together in this amendment. and there were more than 100 Democrats who voted for it and some Republicans as well.

17:00It ended up failing because the remaining Democrats and almost all Republicans voted it down. But regardless, it tells us a lot about the debate in the party. So the debate in the party. Al-Said has been pretty plain, hasn't he, in Michigan about his view of Israel. He certainly doesn't like the Israeli prime minister, but I think it's fair to say it goes further than Jeddah Nehah. It goes to the actual state of Israel and its behavior. You know, he's been asked about this. And what I find really interesting is he has said in the past, look, I don't want our tax dollars going to support the policies of the Israeli government.

17:33And he brings it back to he says, you know, we shouldn't support, for example, the way that Egypt uses its military weapons against its people as well. And so it's not specifically Israel. But indeed, it is because in Michigan, and we know in Michigan in 2024, this was a really central issue for many voters there as well. I went and spoke to some voters there as well who were really upset about the Biden administration's continued support for Israel during the war. And as the war played out in Gaza as well, they're well aware of just how it resonates with voters in Michigan as well. Yeah. So Al-Said has this line, doesn't he, about his own view of Israel and its behavior.

18:14but he has campaigned alongside for instance Hassan Piker this guy who I mean if Marianne were here she'd be laughing at me now but I'm trying to explain what he he's on Twitch which is a thing better you than me okay uh well I I will it won't be better than me than you but I'll give it a go so Twitch is this thing where you basically just put your life online and Hassan Piker is very very successful very well known among a certain sort of cohort isn't he of younger progressive Democrats. But he's also, it is fair to say, has said things in the past that many Americans would find outrageous about 9-11.

18:56Apparently at one stage he said he thought Hamas was better than Israel. So all sorts of things that he is semi-resiled from, but only semi. And the question for El Saeed from more centrist Democrats is how can you go and campaign with these people and keep us on a path that is relatively moderate. And I think that, you know, in the end, in this fight, in this primary election, if people are being asked to make a distinction between the two of them, that seems to me to be one of the big things. It's not so much the actual policies. It's just how big are you willing for the tent to be? Where are you willing to go to get your support?

19:37Yeah. And we should say that, you know, for many Jewish Americans in particular, they see the comments that Hassan Piker has made in the past as truly anti-Semitic. And, you know, there's been a call by some Democrats to ensure that all Democrats distance themselves from him. But again, you know, he does have a massive following. So particularly somebody like Abdul El-Sayed has said, well, you know, this is someone who has also captured part of our base. And I was speaking to a Democratic analyst and someone who had worked previously in the Obama administration and is tied to the Jewish American community.

20:10And he has said, this is something that on the one hand, obviously we understand the opposition to the state of Israel, but you are also making Jewish Americans uncomfortable and feel unsafe at a time where you're seeing anti-Semitic incidents across the country on the rise. So it's not just, of course, about foreign policy, but it's about how Jewish Americans then also identify with the Democratic Party or not. And so that's part of why this has been such a difficult issue for the party now as well. And now you have this new name attached to the Democratic Party, which is the Democratic Socialists of America, the DSA.

20:45And that has added another layer to what the Democrats see as their identity moving forward. Are they socialists? Are they not? Yeah. Now, he's not formally a member, is he, of the DSA? Abdullah Saeed is not. Yeah, which surprised me. I only discovered that the other day, actually. Because he's so closely associated with their staff. I don't know why he isn't a member, but anyway, he isn't a member. And you heard him say there is not a socialist. So maybe that's why he's not a member. Because lots of people who are in the DSA say, you know, it's what it says on the tin. They are actual socialists.

21:16And they believe in socialism. And they like the sort of things. You look at Mamdani opening his state shops in New York now, which he would say socialism. And there's nothing to be upset about that. Al-Said says he's a capitalist and not a socialist. But he's very closely involved, isn't he, with this group that you mentioned, the DSA. In my time in the States, so in the early noughties, the DSA were there, but they were very much on the fringes, actually, of the Democratic Party. They kind of mattered a little bit occasionally. It just seems to me that exactly as you're saying, that this is their moment.

21:56Because if Al-Said wins this primary, and particularly if he then goes ahead and wins the general in Michigan in the autumn, my goodness. I mean, yes, they've had a success in New York, but this is a really major league thing. And it seems to me that they've got a success then with a guy who absolutely could be a presidential candidate in the future. And certainly from within Congress have this kind of power base that the moderates in the party will find very difficult to get past. That, in a sense, is why this matters so much, isn't it? Indeed. You've seen some of the more traditional Democrats really anxious about the rise of the DSA.

22:37Of course, Zoran Mamdani is his own phenomenon, isn't he? And you have to think about the fact that when he won and we saw these DSA candidates also win in New York, a number of Democrats who are more on the centrist part of the party said, well, look, what happens in New York, it can't happen elsewhere. But we are seeing the movement rise elsewhere. Abdul El-Sayed is not a DSA member, as you said, but he shares a lot of the progressive agenda with them. But we saw Colorado as well, where a DSA candidate won. And so, you know, for the party, there is real concern that this could be picked up immediately by Republicans and used as their platform.

23:14Yeah. And the reason being that some of the DSA platform is quite out there, isn't it? It is fair to say it is outside what we have previously thought of as the American mainstream when it comes to politics. And it's a good opportunity, actually, just to to hear what it is. So they want a new constitution. They want really big changes. And conveniently, their co-chair, Megan Romer, was on Fox News with Shannon Bream recently. In fact, earlier this week. And this, I think, is an absolutely fascinating exchange. OK, so we're going to put up on the screen a few of the things that are part of your platform.