Trump pulls back from the brink... but for how long?

0:00This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK.

0:30No bouncing between tabs. And best of all, no spreadsheets. Stop managing software and start managing your business with one unified system. Try for free today at odoo.com. That's O-D-O-O dot com. With the new Schwab Teen Investor Account, teens can gain hands-on investing experience and build positive money habits. It's an account co-owned by you and your teen, so you can monitor and engage with the account while your teen learns how to invest and manage money. Learn more at schwab.com. Donald Trump invented a brink and then pulled back from his own brink. Is this genius or something else? This was the threat.

1:10We have a plan because of the power of our military where every bridge in Iran will be decimated by 12 o 'clock tomorrow night, where every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding and never to be used again. I mean, complete demolition by 12 o 'clock. And it'll happen over a period of four hours if we wanted to. In the end, he didn't want to. It greatly upset, though, not only people around the world, but also some of his key supporters who are also wondering now whether they still support the war that he started. Can he carry on without them? Welcome to AmeriCast.

1:56Anthony Zurcher:AmeriCast. AmeriCast from BBC News. You hear that sound? Oh, I think when I hear that sound, it reminds me of money. We didn't start this war, but under President Trump, we are finishing it. This is a big cover-up, and this administration is engaged in it. This guy has Trump derangement syndrome. I have four words for you. Turn the volume up.

2:23Hello, it's Sarah here in the BBC's Washington Bureau.

2:26Anthony Zurcher:And it's Anthony right next to Sarah here in Washington, D.C. And it's Justin holding the fort in the worldwide headquarters of AmeriCast in London, England. And I should say as well that the time, because events are moving, aren't they? Events are moving fast. The time is roughly half past three in the afternoon on Wednesday here in London. So we're going to be talking about things that we know about or at least can speculate about that have happened up till now. But if they're happening in the longer term future, well, we are going to miss them. and let's hope we got what we have said right.

2:56And I suppose, Sarah, we ought to start with just the extraordinary events, not only events, but things that have been said in the last 24 hours or so. Yeah, from Donald Trump, we're used to apocalyptic language, we're used to the hyperbole that you get from him all of the time, his boastfulness about what the US might be able to achieve. But I frankly never thought we would see or hear some of the things he's been coming out with over the last couple of days. There was this expletive-ridden post on social media on Sunday directed at Iran, which to call it unpresidential would be the understatement of all time.

3:36And then on Tuesday, there was this astonishing threat to wipe out Iranian civilisation and portrayed as a boast as well. I mean, this is a man who is talking about what could well have been a genocidal crime, which would almost certainly have been a war crime targeting civilian infrastructure that is essential for the people in Iran to carry on. People he doesn't even say he is at war with, people he is in theory supporting. While all the time we kind of knew he was looking for a way to climb down. They didn't actually want to go through with any of this as well. It's head spinning, frankly, in the scale of what Donald Trump has been saying, what the consequences could have been and the way it's turned out.

4:23Anthony Zurcher:Yeah, I guess, Sarah, we're used to this on a domestic level. We're used to Donald Trump pushing boundaries and pushing norms and saying things that are astounding when it comes to domestic U.S. politics. But during his first presidential term, there were people who kind of kept that instinct in check on the international stage. Well, they aren't there now, and he's using what we had become used to over those first four years on the global stage. And it comes at a price. I think that is clear that this is shaking the foundations of the international order when he says this. But I will also point out that, at least in some ways, it worked.

5:01Anthony Zurcher:He did get Iran to agree to open the Strait of Hormuz. He did get Iran to agree to a temporary ceasefire, which is something they said they did not want. They wanted a permanent peace. But I guess the question is, yes, is success short term at least, but at what cost? Well, and that's, Anthony, is exactly what we're going to be debating for the next few hours, days, possibly weeks, is what is victory? Can Donald Trump genuinely claim that there is any success in this? And will people believe him? Because, Justin, Anthony is absolutely right, isn't he, in what's been achieved in the last 24 hours.

5:35But five weeks ago, the Straits of Hormuz were open. International shipping traffic was going through there without paying tolls to Iran. We didn't need a ceasefire because there was no hot war going on. I think, you know, we're going to have to assess how the United States has actually benefited in any way from what's gone on in the last five weeks or so. Yeah, so we use this word claim. Let's just work out what Donald Trump is claiming because it's quite a lot. So that initial post on social media, what, 90 minutes or so before the deadline that he had imposed. I agree to suspend the bombing attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.

6:11It'll be a double-sided ceasefire. Subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the complete, immediate and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz. And then he has this post a little bit later, Truth Social post, saying it's a big day for world peace. Iran has had enough. So has everyone else. US is going to be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. And then this extraordinary line, Sarah and Anthony. There'll be lots of positive action. Big money will be made. Yeah.

6:41Anthony Zurcher:And part of that could be what Donald Trump discussed in a brief phone call with a reporter today. And that is that Iran and the United States might cooperate in some sort of a regime governing tolling through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States might, in theory, extract a toll along with Iran through what it had been, as Sarah pointed out before this war began, an international waterway where you didn't have to pay any money to get through. So if that is where the dust settles after all of this, it's kind of a remarkable turn of events. And the fact that Donald Trump is now discussing going into business with an Iranian regime that just yesterday he was threatening to essentially wipe off the face of the earth.

7:25Anthony Zurcher:It is I mean, it's mind boggling. I'm really fascinated by that call. So it was to Jonathan Karl, wasn't it, that the reporter you referenced there. Jonathan Karl is a serious person from ABC News, has a relationship with the president, not particularly close. He's written some quite acidic things about the Trump White House, hasn't he? But nonetheless, the president respects him. And I'm just going to quote to you what Jonathan Karl actually said on X. I asked President Trump if he's OK with the Iranians charging a toll for all ships that go through the Strait of Hormuz. He told me there may be a joint U.S.-Iran venture to charge tolls.

8:04We're thinking of doing it as a joint venture. It's a way of securing it, also securing it from lots of other people. It's a beautiful thing. And the thing that, I mean, number one, as you say, it's just mind boggling because nobody was paying a toll before the war. But number two, it's this transactional thing, isn't it? I think, am I right in saying this, Sarah, that one of the ways, one of the lenses that you've got to look at the way that Donald Trump is seeing all of this is that he thinks the Iranian regime is as transactional as he is. He's sort of assuming, he's treating them as if they're Venezuelans, actually, isn't he?

8:43He's assuming, rightly or wrongly, we don't necessarily know for certain that it's wrong. But his assumption now is, OK, the war's over. It's all over, guys. We're all friends. Let's make some money together. And that that will be enough to convince this regime, which he was previously calling all the names under the sun, that it's worth doing business with him. That is Donald Trump, the man, isn't it? That is genuinely him. Yeah, and I think you've absolutely put your finger on two of the biggest problems with this operation from the very beginning in Donald Trump's assumptions. One, that it would be like Venezuela in terms of how quick and painless it would be to get in and out and complete their operations.

9:23and partly because the way the Venezuelan government has agreed to work with him after President Maduro was captured. And that spectacularly did not happen in Iran because they're motivated by entirely different things than Donald Trump. They're not transactional like Donald Trump is. They're not looking at this conflict and trying to find a way to make more money out of it. They saw it as an existential battle for their own survival, partly due to the threats that Donald Trump was making. And they're driven by ideology, by theocracy, not by the kind of transactional politics that Donald Trump understands and believes that other people are interested in as well.

10:01And it was this total failure to understand the motivations of the Iranian regime that led him to make some of the mistakes here in the first place. And the administration, Donald Trump, Pete Hegseth, continue to say that there has been complete and total regime change in Iran. Well, it is true that the personnel in the regime have changed because so many of the ones who were in charge before have been killed during the course of this conflict. But that does not mean that they have changed their minds about how they're going to operate, how they're going to treat the United States or what motivates them in any way.

10:33And in fact, you know, there are analysts who know the region well say that they may be even more hardline than the people they have replaced and even harder to do business with. So just as America got a fairly big shock as to how the course of this conflict went, I think Donald Trump might be equally surprised by how the course of this peace may go when he's talking to Iran.

10:52Anthony Zurcher:There was an article in The New York Times just yesterday. I don't know if you read it, but it kind of detailed behind the scenes the run up to this war. It's a wonderful piece. It's absolutely delicious in the detail it goes into about the planning for this. Right. And Benjamin Netanyahu came to the White House, the Israeli prime minister, sat in the situation room, which is the high security room where the United States responds to and plans the most delicate strategic moves and pitched this war saying that there would be regime change, saying that Iranians would rise up and overthrow the Ayatollah and the Islamic government.

11:31Anthony Zurcher:And there were advisors, you know, talking about advisors who are saying this is not realistic. There were advisors in the room, John Ratcliffe, the head of the CIA, who said it was farcical. And Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, he used an expletive to describe. But there were people who said very clearly they didn't think that this was going to work out the way that the Israelis seemed to be suggesting it would. J.D. Vance, the vice president, was apparently very against it, probably helps him get a little daylight between himself and this administration, this war. But fascinating to see what the fallout was predicted to be and how, in many ways, this rosy Venezuelan-style scenario that Israel was pitching just was never going to happen.

12:19And, of course, before you get to the world stage, what about the Iranians? You know, what level of fear are they going to have? What level of confidence in their own ability to see down Donald Trump are they going to have specifically, for instance, when it comes to the highly enriched uranium, which we know is in Iran somewhere in some kind of amount and which, you know, is or is not now going to be removed. And it was fascinating on that, listening to Pete Hegseth, the secretary for war, talking about it and talking about it for all in all respects, as if that is still going to be removed and as if Donald Trump still has the power to have it removed.

13:04Let's let's listen for a moment to him. We know exactly what they have and they know that. And they will either give it to us, which the president has laid out. They'll give it to us voluntarily. We'll get it. We'll take it. We'll take it out. or if we have to do something else ourselves, like we did in Midnight Hammer or something like that, we reserve that opportunity. But what's clear, what the Iranian, the new Iranian regime knows, is they'll never have a nuclear weapon or the capability to get a path to one.

13:30Anthony Zurcher:Was the president really prepared to wipe out Iran entirely? Like I said, we had a target set locked and loaded of infrastructure, bridges, power plants. Remember, this is a terror regime, a military regime. used all of these things for dual use to fund their military, to fund their terror campaigns. We had a lot of legitimate targets. They knew exactly the scope of what we were capable of. President Trump has the option as the commander in chief to compel an adversary to the table, which is precisely what he did. And at the end, he chose to say, you know what, I'd rather talk to you at the table than obliterate your capability to export oil and fund your terror regime.

14:06So he did make that choice. That was his choice. He was a president of peace. And he's been willing to make those really tough calls that the American people elected him to do. I mean, it's not funny because what we're talking about couldn't be more serious, but it's laughable in how ludicrous the tone from Pete Hegseth is, isn't it, about the victory that the United States has achieved here?

14:26Anthony Zurcher:Yeah, I think on one hand, the United States has achieved a tactical military victory. I mean, you heard Hegseth and Dan Cain, the general chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, tick through everything that the United States has done, all the targets It has hit all the ships that are at the bottom of the Gulf, all of the missile production sites that have been destroyed and the limited casualties that the United States has suffered. So at least on a tactical level, this has been a very effective campaign. The question is, on a strategic level, has it been a success? And you heard Hegseth talking there about Iran's uranium, enriched uranium, and how they were going to deal with it.

15:08Anthony Zurcher:Well, if you listen to Iran and their 10-point peace plan, which they said that the United States has accepted, at least in broad terms, they will continue to have that uranium. They said that they will continue to be able to exert influence over the Strait of Hormuz, which I think they have proven throughout this war. They said that they will continue to support regional actors, these surrogate regimes that are the surrogate forces in places like the Houthis and Hezbollah that have been destabilizing the region for quite some time. And all of that, I don't think the United States is going to agree to, but it does show how there is still so much left to be worked out.

15:52Anthony Zurcher:And that for the United States to declare some sort of overarching strategic victory, I think that is very premature. It's worth saying, Sarah, you have witnessed firsthand, haven't you, the ire, whether it's real ire or fabricated ire or whatever it is. But you've seen Donald Trump in action in recent days when it comes to some of the wildest stuff that he's come out with. Yeah, he came personally to the White House briefing room. So all of the reporters who were absolutely crammed into that room were able to ask him questions about how the war was going. Now, he came there because they were celebrating the rescue of the downed airmen inside Iran who had been rescued over the weekend.

16:34And that was being sold as a huge military success from the United States and something worth trumpeting. So that was why the president, along with the Dan Cain, Pete Hegseth, John Ratcliffe from the CIA, all turned up in the briefing room to speak to us. Let me first give you a little taste of what they had to say. Happy Easter. We had a great Easter. This is one of our better Easter's, I think, in a lot of different ways. I can say militarily, it's been one of the best. And we're here today to celebrate the success of one of the largest, most complex, most harrowing combat searches. I guess you would call it a search and rescue mission ever attempted by the military.

17:18Thursday night, an American F-15 fighter jet went down deep inside enemy territory in Iran while participating in Operation Epic Fury, where we're doing unbelievably well, well at a level that nobody's ever seen before. The entire country could be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night. Your messaging on the war has moved from the war is coming to an end to we're going to be bombing Iran to the Stone Ages. And we've heard a range of those kind of messages. So are you... So which is it? Are you winding this down? I can't tell you. I can't tell you. I don't know. I can't tell you.

17:56Depends what they do. This is a critical period. We're giving them till tomorrow, 8 o 'clock Eastern Time. and after that they're gonna have no bridges they're gonna have no power plants stone ages yeah what is your response to critics who say that I don't care about what is your response to critics who say that is your mental health that should perhaps be examined as this war I haven't heard that but if that's the case you're gonna have to have more people like me because our country was being ripped off on trade or everything for many years until I came along. So if that's the case, you're going to have to have more people.

18:37That gives you a pretty good flavour of what it was like in there. I found it really, really remarkable because after the triumphalism about the rescue of that downed airman, and that was a story from the movies, essentially, that they were able to tell about how that was achieved. And we got onto questions about the progress of the war. You heard him there saying he doesn't even know whether or not he's ramping up the war or winding it down. And making these threats, talking about, you know, an entire country being wiped out overnight and that night might be tomorrow night, without sounding genuinely serious about it.

19:12I mean, his tone was not playful, but I mean, it was almost as though we're not talking about real events here. And I think the dichotomy was, I got a sense from him that he didn't want to do this. He had to go through the emotions of saying that, you know, hell would rain down on Iran if it didn't agree to his deadline, that there was a degree of game playing around having set this deadline and saying he was committed to it, but that he wanted to find a way not to have to do this, that he was very much hoping an off-ramp would be offered somehow, but at the same time without reaching out in any way to try and grasp a branch that was being offered to him.

19:51So I really did get a sense of somebody who didn't believe the words that he was saying as he was standing there talking to us. How does all of this sit now with the Republican Party and with his base? Not necessarily entirely the same things, but let's kind of go through, number one, I suppose, whether this matters to them, but number two, whether it mattering to them matters to him, if you see what I mean. In other words, has he kind of given up on the midterm elections or the other things we would normally talk about at this stage. So, Anthony, it is fair to say, isn't it, that quite a few of those who had already slightly left the room when it came to being ready to go to war with Iran, that they've become ever more aggressive and open in their dislike of the whole thing.

20:43Anthony Zurcher:Yeah, I think some of the, I guess you could call them usual suspects now Now, on Donald Trump's base, people like Marjorie Taylor Greene, who is sharply critical, said it was evil and madness for Donald Trump to make these kind of threats. Candace Owens, who is a Republican right-wing commentator influencer calling Trump a genocidal lunatic. We heard from them. I think we also, however, heard from some voices within particularly Republicans in Congress that we haven't normally heard from. People like Nate Moran, who was a congressman from Texas, saying that it was counterproductive, that this isn't what America is, this isn't who America is to threaten genocide.

21:26Anthony Zurcher:And Ron Johnson, the senator from Wisconsin, who was one of Donald Trump's most loyal supporters, someone who carried water for him when he was challenging the 2020 election results, he said that blowing up civilian infrastructure would be a huge mistake. And he disagreed with Donald Trump's rhetoric. So we have, I think this did expose some cracks within the Republican base, some concerns certainly among Republicans who are looking at these midterm elections coming up. And it's not Donald Trump on the ballot. It's their names on the ballot. They're going to have to deal with the consequences of this.

21:59Anthony Zurcher:And while some of that may be subdued now that Trump didn't follow through with his massive bombing campaign, that there is a ceasefire, I think those fault lines are there. And I think it's going to make it more difficult, honestly, in two weeks time if Donald Trump doesn't get an agreement from the Iranians that he's happy with for him to turn the engines back on, get the planes back in the air and resume bombing. I think that is when you will see maybe even more open rebellion from his right flank. There's also, Justin, I don't know if you know, there's been a movement on the other side from the Democrats who were appalled by this threat to wipe out a whole civilisation that came from Donald Trump on social media, saying he's not fit to be president anymore and calling for the 25th Amendment of the Constitution to be invoked, which allows for the removal of a president if he's no longer fit to serve.

22:53Now, of course, these are Donald Trump's opponents. They would rather he wasn't in office in the first place. But we've not heard this from them before. I think up to 70 lawmakers all signed on saying it was time that the cabinet intervened to remove Donald Trump. So that's not something that is going to happen, obviously. But it is a measure of the level of political debate that was sparked by that post on Truth Social that we've gotten to the point where for the first time, they're not just saying that his policies are wrong or that they don't like him. They say he is literally not fit to be in office.

23:25Do you think he cares though, Sarah? Hang on a second, Justin. I can no longer ignore the messages that are coming in my phone asking me where I am because I'm supposed to be in an edit suite putting together a package for the six o 'clock news. So hold that thought, but ask it of Anthony. I'm going to run out of the studio and leave you guys to it. All right, good luck, Sarah. Bye, Sarah. Yeah, so that conversation then, Anthony, leads us to the question, does he care about the midterm? Does he now think he's lost them or his party's lost them and it doesn't really matter to him anymore?

24:00Anthony Zurcher:Yeah, I think he cares about it. I mean, he seemed like he's cared about it in the past because I think he realizes that if Democrats take over the House of Representatives and maybe even the Senate, that it will grind his legislative agenda such as it is to a halt. But it would also lead to two years of fairly rigorous oversight and investigations of his administration. I mean, he doesn't have to think back too far to remember what happened when the Democrats took over the House of Representatives in 2019, in January 2019. It was only a matter of months before Donald Trump was impeached for the first time.