Trump's Iran Gamble... What is the US president up to?

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1:59the United States, our troops, our bases overseas, and our allies throughout the world. That was Donald Trump announcing that he has just launched a massive military campaign against Iran, without doubt the biggest gamble of his presidency. There's so much to unpack about this. Why has Donald Trump done it? Why has he done it now? What's it going to mean in the long term for America and for Iran? What does it mean for his MAGA supporters, to whom he promised no more foreign wars? and what does it mean to American voters who, remember, are going to the polls in November. Welcome to AmeriCast. AmeriCast.

2:37AmeriCast from BBC News. You hear that sound? Oh, I think when I hear that sound, it reminds me of money. Nicolas Maduro, he effed around and he found out. This is a big cover-up and this administration is engaged in it. This guy has Trump derangement syndrome. I have four words for you. Turn the volume up.

3:26going on in the Middle East itself, although that's obviously hugely important. It is also really, really important, isn't it, Sarah, for actually for the future of the Trump presidency, you can put it as bluntly as that. Yeah, this is probably the most consequential thing he's done, the biggest gamble he's taken since getting back into office. And the consequences for him and his remaining time in the White House are very, very big. And obviously for America and for the Middle East as well, because this is a really large operation that the US launched early Saturday morning in conjunction with Israel.

3:59They're calling it Operation Epic Fury, which may tell you something about how they're feeling about it. And so far, President Trump's been saying he thinks it's a tremendous success and that they are ahead of schedule. Iran has now confirmed that its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, was killed in an Israeli strike yesterday. And we've just had news today, Sunday, of the first American fatalities, three service members who've been killed and five wounded. And so far, Iranian officials are telling us that over 150 people have been killed there, including some children. And one of the fascinating early things that became obvious, isn't it, Sarah, is that he was sort of dialing all of this in from home.

4:41He's effectively working from home, working from Mar-a-Lago. And you have this weird fact that the president is doing this enormously consequential thing. And normally you'd think of the situation room at the White House and all the rest of it and all the kind of folderol about that and the photographs being taken and the grave faces and all the rest of it. Donald Trump is at home in Mar-a-Lago, which tells you something, doesn't it, about the Trump presidency and the way that they approach all of these things? Yeah, because he knew he was going to do this, which is why they have a specially constructed situation room down at Mar-a-Lago.

5:14And the White House actually posted some pictures of him in there monitoring the operation. And you can see him with Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, the Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Raising Cain, as he loves to call him. But, you know, there was no rushing back to the White House because he's taken the country to war or anything like that. He'd obviously planned to do it from Mar-a-Lago. We also saw a shot of the White House Situation Room with J.D. Vance sitting in the number one chair with a couple of other cabinet secretaries with him. But obviously, the whole thing was being organized and monitored from Mar-a-Lago itself, which is remarkably casual, I think, for something as serious and monumentous as this.

5:57And to announce it, the only thing he's actually said directly to the American people was in a video that he posted on his own social media channel at half past two in the morning on Saturday morning. That's how he told the American people that basically he'd taken their country to war. And he hasn't directly spoken to them either on video or in a TV address since then. Yeah. And I mean, not only is the video extraordinary along and the only intervention, as it were, that he's made, but it's also worth saying that when he made it, he was wearing this white baseball cap with USA on the front. So the The vibe, exactly as you were saying, Sarah, the vibe kind of casual, just the absolute opposite.

6:38You think of those pictures of Barack Obama in the Situation Room when they were killing Osama bin Laden. You think of other kind of major, huge interventions that American presidents have made and the kind of official vision of it, the official production of it, actually, is not too strong a word to use. This is, I think we're saying also produced, but produced to look very Trump-like. Anyway, let's listen to a bit of what he actually said. They've rejected every opportunity to renounce their nuclear ambitions, and we can't take it anymore. Instead, they attempted to rebuild their nuclear program and to continue developing long-range missiles that can now threaten our very good friends and allies in Europe, our troops stationed overseas, and could soon reach the American homeland.

7:34Just imagine how emboldened this regime would be if they ever had and actually were armed with nuclear weapons as a means to deliver their message. For these reasons, the United States military has undertaken a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests. We are going to destroy their missiles and raise their missile industry to the ground. It will be totally, again, obliterated. My administration has taken every possible step to minimize the risk to U.S. personnel in the region. Even so, and I do not make this statement lightly, the Iranian regime seeks to kill.

8:27The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost and we may have casualties that often happens in war. But we're doing this not for now. We're doing this for the future. To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces, and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity, or in the alternative, face certain death. So, lay down your arms. You will be treated fairly with total immunity, or you will face certain death. Finally, to the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered.

9:15Don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations. For many years, you have asked for America's help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want. So let's see how you respond. Can I just pick up on that last point he made, Sarah? No president was willing to do what we did tonight. And that is actually true, because it is also true, isn't it?

9:55And I remember this from back in the day when Obama, actually, right at the beginning of the Obama administration, there were worries about Iran, there was an outreach to Iran, they gave me an interview with Obama, because we told them that we were going to translate it for the BBC into Persian and run on the Persian service. service. And that's why we got the interview. I remember that. That would have been in the middle of 2009, because there was this outreach and this fear that Iran was going to develop a nuclear weapon and it needed to be stopped. But at the same time as they were doing that outreach with us, it has become obvious since that they were also working out militarily how to strike Iran and to destroy its nuclear capabilities.

10:40So that goes all the way back to the Obama presidency. And obviously he not only did he not destroy their nuclear facilities, but he also in the end set up this deal that he thought would at least limit their ability to have nuclear weapons in the in the longer term future. And then it came up again, didn't it? And Trump won with John Bolton, who's who's out and about now rather pleased with what's going on. And interestingly, given how he's fallen out with with Donald Trump, but he wanted them to do it then and Trump didn't do it then. So this is not something that is just suddenly turned to overnight.

11:13This is a set of plans that the American military felt that it had to have in place for some time. Yeah, because they've been watching the possible development of a nuclear weapon in Iran for a very long time. And there's been a twin track process of negotiations about trying to limit that, threats of military action. It's gone back and forward for decades. And it's worth saying, of course, when, for instance, Barack Obama was trying to negotiate this, Donald Trump was often saying that Obama should not attack Iran, not start a war there. There was one tweet he sent out in 2012 saying, don't let Obama play the Iran card in order to start a war in order to get elected.

11:53Be careful, Republicans. But so things have obviously changed since then. But there was so much in that eight minute address that he posted on social media. I think we should go through it bit by bit. The first thing I think is that he did not give a convincing case as to why it was in America's interest to attack Iran now, what the imminent threat to the homeland was. He talked about a threat to US troops and bases in the region and US allies. Well, I don't think anybody believes Donald Trump goes to war to protect his allies, given the relationships he has with some of them at the moment. He's wanted to do this for a long time.

12:30And he has certainly been saying for the last few weeks that if Iran didn't give him what he wanted in the negotiations, he would attack. But that's different from actually really laying out a comprehensive case to America about why it is worth risking the lives of their armed forces and putting blood and treasure on the line in Iran. What's in it for them? He just absolutely has not explained, I don't think. He could have done it in the State of the Union address less than a week before he launched this attack. Didn't even mention it. Yeah. And hasn't even scheduled a television address yet to appear on TV and explain to voters why this was necessary.

13:08Yeah. And here's where it gets really interesting, because you mentioned almost as an aside earlier, Sarah, and I think rightly as an aside, J.D. Vance, the vice president, who's stuck there in the White House. And there were a couple of pictures of him, as you say, in the White House situation room. But oh, my goodness, what is he thinking now? This guy who we know and we know from the leaked messages a year or so ago, weren't there, over his disinclination to be involved in various actions against the Houthis in this area? He said, leave it to the Europeans and it all got leaked out. He doesn't think much of this kind of thing.

13:45generally that has always been his thing i mean i suppose if if he were here and he's very welcome to come on the pod at any stage of course but if he were here he'd probably say well i do believe in overwhelming force when you use american might and i would approve of that kind of thing and the fact that we have gone in all guns blazing but i've generally speaking you know jd vance and that wing of the party but particularly the vice president himself uh and you think of the the things that he said publicly and the things that you assume he says privately. And you do wonder what he makes of this.

14:19Yeah. And what he has been saying in the last couple of weeks is that there is no way the US is going to get into an extended campaign in Iran. Donald Trump is not quite so clear on that. I mean, nobody is talking about putting boots on the ground, having troops entering Iran. This is not Iraq. But one of the things, of course, that will determine America's involvement is whether or not the Iranian people take Donald Trump up on his offer for them to overthrow their government. He said it in his speech there as though it was a simple thing. And of course, we know it's not, especially not after the incredibly brutal way in which protest and dissent was being crushed in Iran last month.

15:00He is basically saying he does want regime change in Iran, but he's not prepared to get involved on the ground and thinks that he can basically affect regime change from the air as long as the Iranian people actually, you know, take it into their own hands to overthrow the government. That is a very big gamble. To put it mildly. And also, what regime would he then be satisfied with? Because there isn't an opposition ready to go in Iran. There's not somewhere to turn with an obvious figurehead and people ready to take over and run the country. And from what we saw in Venezuela, it's very possible that the instinct of the Trump administration would be to do that, not to worry about the ideological nature of the person who you're putting in charge, just make sure they're pliant.

15:49And as long as they'll do what the United States tells them to do, otherwise they know that a further and greater attack could come upon them, then I think they would be very, very happy with that. The first casualties have been announced today, Justin, the first fatalities. We haven't heard from Donald Trump since that was announced. Three service personnel killed. We don't know where. We don't know how. No other details about it yet. We're unlikely to get them for another 24 hours or so. But that materially changes America's involvement and how it's going to be received here and how Trump's decisions will be looked on, don't you think?

16:30You know, unfortunately, there will probably be more fatalities, but even just these first three, it's now completely different from Venezuela or the attack on Iran last year, where there were no American casualties. Yeah, which in itself was a stunning thing. I mean, you think of the complications involved in that incredible Venezuela operation, where they went in in the dead of night, They closed off the electricity. The special forces went in, took out the people around Maduro. They actually snatched the man himself. They got him out. All of this done, loads of aircraft in the skies, loads of things that could have gone wrong.

17:02And the odd thing that did go wrong, actually, but absolutely no one killed. And now with this operation, I mean, even huger in terms of the materiel being employed. And obviously there will be, not only have there been casualties, American casualties, but there will be more. And you assume, don't you, Sarah, that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, when he was briefing the president, what the options were, will have said, look, things can go wrong. I mean, we could have a ship that's hit. We could lose hundreds. And you do wonder how that then, how Trump then reacts to that and how the wider American public.

17:38We'll talk in a second about the Republican Party and indeed the Democrats, but just just in general public opinion. It seems to me that when military operations are successful, and you look back to 2003, actually, and the initial stages of it, everyone, you know, broadly, the American public don't take a huge amount of interest in what's going on abroad, kind of thinking, oh, we're doing well, what the heck, it's a noble cause, etc. And I think with this as well, you can see it going very, very wrong if casualties start to mount, particularly US casualties. Yeah, because Iran is treated completely differently from what it did the attack on its nuclear facilities in June, where it almost didn't respond.

18:19It fired off a few rockets with some warning, in fact, and no Americans were killed as a result. And it appeared that they were being quite careful to make sure that was what was going to happen. They know now they're in an existential fight, and they're going to fling absolutely everything at it that they've got. Now, Donald Trump thinks so far that this is successful, not just because of the barrage of artillery that has been dropped on Iran, but because the Ayatollah Khomeini has been killed by an Israeli bomb but pinpointed with American intelligence. Quite a number, in fact, of the leadership have been killed.

18:57And Donald Trump's even been saying it's going to be difficult to restart negotiations with him because so many of the people they were talking to last week have now been killed. So he is viewing this as a success so far, but without knowing exactly where it's going to go or how it could expand. And when it comes to what his end game is, that wasn't contained really in that video, was it? Other than to say in sort of slightly vague terms, well, the Iranian people themselves are going to have to take this over. But what would be acceptable? I mean, given that there are certain key demands, I mean, the most obvious one being you mustn't have a nuclear weapon and you must hand over all the material that could lead to a nuclear weapon, all of it now, which, of course, they were talking about, weren't they, in Amman, in the talks with the Iranians before the attack.

19:44But also there are other things they want Iran to do, aren't there? I mean, specifically to stop aiding and abetting militant groups in the area to get rid of their long range missiles, the missiles that can attack Israel and do attack Israel. So is it is the end game having a regime in Iran that agrees to all of that? I mean, I suppose you could assume that that's the end game, but I'm not sure he's actually quite said it. No, and in fact, let me just run you through the precise quote that he gave when he spoke on the phone to a reporter from Axios on Saturday. He said, I can go long and take over the whole thing, meaning Iran, or end it in two or three days and tell the Iranians, see you again in a few years if you start rebuilding, referencing their nuclear programs.

20:33In any case, it will take them several years to recover from this attack. So, I mean, that frankly sounds like he hasn't made up his mind what the end game is, that he could go back to talks, see if they're prepared to give in to his demands now. That's what he's been suggesting on Sunday morning or go long and take over the whole thing. So presumably that means, you know, finding your Delce Rodriguez and essentially telling them how to run the country from Washington. So I don't think he knows what the end game is. I think he wanted to get rid of Ayatollah Khomeini. The briefing that we've been getting from senior administration officials about why now, because they've been asked a lot, you know, what was the tipping point?

21:14What was the imminent threat? They aren't trying to say that Iran was weeks away from a nuclear weapon. That's a very difficult case to argue, not least because of the damage that was done to their nuclear facilities by US B-2 bombers in June. You know, Donald Trump said they had been obliterated, completely destroyed. You can't claim now that they were days or weeks away from a nuclear weapon. So they're concentrating on the conventional ballistic missiles that you mentioned, Justin, those ones that are being fired into Israel as we speak, claiming that they posed a risk to American bases and troops in the region and that it just was no longer acceptable for Iran to have conventional long-range ballistic missiles.

21:53But they have had them for years. I mean, it's a difficult case to make that something changed, meaning that those missiles had to be taken out. Yeah. And when you say a difficult case to make, a difficult case to make, and here we come to the internal divisions in the Republican, the wider Republican movement, a difficult case to make to the MAGA movement, who were told, we've said this so many times, but it's worth repeating, who were told during that long, exciting election campaign between Donald Trump initially and Joe Biden, and then between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, Donald Trump is for peace.

22:29He is the peace candidate in this election. And you heard it, didn't you? We both heard it on the ground from people who are intending to vote for Donald Trump. We are voting for him because he is going to bring peace to the world. And he's certainly not going to involve the United States in the kind of wars that we've seen in recent years. So you have now in the MAGA movement, don't you, Sarah, quite significant voices saying, you shouldn't be doing this. Yeah, absolutely. Because they took him at his word. I remember, I think it was last May, I went on that Middle East trip with Donald Trump when he visited several different countries.

23:01And we were in Qatar at the huge US airbase there, the Al-Udin airbase. He was speaking to all the troops and he said, I'm going to end conflicts, not start them. And now, you know, that airbase is the one that will be targeted the most by Iran as he has chosen to begin this conflict. So, you know, the contradiction is very, very clearly there. And that is being pointed out to him by some of the people who have in the past been great, great supporters of his, like Marjorie Taylor Greene, who is now a former Republican congresswoman. But she is absolutely sticking to the message. She said on X, we said no more foreign wars, no more regime change.

23:42We said it on rally stage after rally stage, speech after speech. Trump, Vance, basically promised the entire administration campaigned on it, promised to put America first and make America great again. And she says there are 93 million people in Iran. Let them liberate themselves. She doesn't believe that Iran was on the verge of having a nuclear weapon and is basically saying that Donald Trump has been distracted from fixing things that Americans want fixed in their country, like healthcare insurance and the economy and is wasting his time on foreign affairs instead. And then add to that, you've got Tucker Carlson.

24:15Tucker Carlson, who we profiled on the pod just a couple of episodes ago. Anthony and I talked about him and I talked to the guy who's just written a book about him. And really interestingly, the thing that really struck me about what he told us about Tucker Carlson, this great right-wing influencer, used to be a Fox News personality, of course, now has very much his own show online and really does pack a punch. Tucker Carlson, I thought, was not terribly involved in the Trump White House. And the guy we talked to, the author, rather corrected me and said, you know, he does still have real impact on Donald Trump.

24:52Oh, he's there all the time. Yeah, fascinating. I've seen him sit in the front row of various events that has got nothing to do with him, but some of the cabinet secretaries will come in and there's Tucker Carlson with them, sitting there as though he is a part of the administration. Yeah, so here he is now saying he absolutely condemns what's going on in Iran. And you think, well, hold on a second. I mean, number one, he's obviously not getting his way. But number two, is that also leading to all sorts of rows behind the scenes that could destabilise the Trump administration? Or I suppose number three, Trump is powerful enough, feels himself to be powerful enough, to say to those in the party, that MAGA conservative wing, essentially isolationist wing, no more wars wing.

25:36Look, I've got to do this. And you've just got to follow me because it's going to be a success. And I'm going to do it. And the broader American public will go with it sort of in a way embracing his inner neocon, which perhaps is there, you know, maybe in the soul of every American president, you've got a lot of hardware, and you quite like the idea of being able to use it. And I just wonder the extent to which he is able now Sarah to face down those people particularly if this is a success in his terms or he can portray it in those terms where they're actually we maybe slightly exaggerate the impact of these people because there's another twist to it isn't there which is that quite a lot of them don't like Israel and are accused actually of not liking Jews and there is this sort of added twist that some of it that some of that sort of sense of wanting to be done with Israel and the heck Israel can just look after itself is is out of kilter then with the wider Republican movement and the wider the wider feeling in in America but it's fascinating isn't it because it is a big it's a very big discussion they've got to have both in public and private as well absolutely and I mean Trump has said in the past when faced with things like this, that he's acting in a way contrary to what he promised when he was campaigning.

26:53And people saying, where will MAGA go? He says, I am MAGA. He decides what MAGA is because he's the one who invented it. And basically, if he says it, it goes. But we'll discover whether or not that's true. And you said there, Justin, maybe he thinks he can get away with this if it's a success. Well, that's absolutely key, obviously. But when you go into a wider conflict like this in the Middle East, we know that you do not control the outcome and you're not guaranteed of success. So I tell you who I thought put it very well was Blake Neff. He was a producer of the podcast that the right wing activist Charlie Kirk used to do before he was killed last year.