Why the Democrats may never be the same again

0:00This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK. If you are currently overpaying on software to run your business, remember this number, 10 ,000. That's the number of new businesses that join Odoo per month. Join Odoo today at odoo.com. That's O-D-O-O dot com. The Democratic Party has taken a big step, a step that could mean it is never the same again. First, there was Zoran Mamdani, hugely popular progressive candidate who won the race to become the mayor of New York. And now in the crucial state of Michigan, they have chosen another progressive candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, winning the nomination to take on the Republicans in November for the Senate seat.

0:47He's already been labelled the most radical candidate ever. This could be the race that shapes the entire future of the party and its direction in the post-Trump era. Welcome to AmeriCast. AmeriCast. AmeriCast from BBC News. You hear that sound? Oh, I think when I hear that sound, it reminds me of money. We didn't start this war, but under President Trump, we are finishing it. This is a big cover-up, and this administration is engaged in it. This guy has Trump derangement syndrome. I have four words for you. Turn the volume up.

1:29Hello, it's Sarah here in the BBC's Bureau in Washington. And it's just in the worldwide headquarters of AmeriCast in London, England. The time is half past three in the afternoon here in London. And there is news to bring you. Actually, the big news, first of all, is that we've got Mike Murphy in this episode. So Mike Murphy, the veteran Republican strategist. He's worked for everyone from Arnold Schwarzenegger to Mitt Romney. He is no friend of Donald Trump, but he is, I think he calls himself an independent conservative. Now, anyway, Mike Murphy, who knows an awful lot about how to win elections, is going to come on and talk to us about, Sarah, this news that we have just had and that we teed up in a previous episode rather nicely, because we've got an actual result now in the state of Michigan.

2:14And it is a big one. Yeah. In the Democratic primary for the Senate seat there in Michigan, Abdul El Saeed, who is a left wing progressive candidate, beat the establishment candidate, Hayley Stevens. And so he's the one who's going to be in the ballot for the Senate in Michigan. And this is important for a number of reasons, Justin, isn't it? Which is that it's a big victory for the left, for the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Not their first this year. It's part of a swing, it would seem, in some parts of the country towards the progressive left. But it is the first time it's happened in a key swing state.

2:48So it's one thing for progressives to be winning primaries in states like New York. is quite another in Michigan, somewhere where they would need to win the Senate seat in the midterms to take control of the Senate. Also, they need to win it in 2028 to take the presidential election. So what happens in states like Michigan really, really matters. And the question now is, how winnable is it with candidates like El Saeed? And can they bring the Democratic Party together behind his campaign? Have a listen to what he said just after he won the primary this week. but right now as bitter and as divisive and as cynical as the campaign against us might have been i want us to realize that there is so much more that unites us now because the campaign that mike rogers and donald trump and their gop maga allies are launching is already more bitter all you got to do is look at the ads you're already watching on tv started today.

3:48You know, they think that you want to use my whole name against me. Mike, listen, man, if you can't say the name, it's Abdurrahman. Keep the name out your damn mouth. I'll be happy to give you lessons.

4:03But they understand that the only way that they think they can win is to drag us into the mud, to believe the worst about each other, to believe that what divides us is bigger than what unites us. They want us to think that the reason some of us ain't got is because of other people got. But it turns out that the reason so many of us ain't got is because of the system that has corrupted our politics to take it away from us. The thing that really strikes me about him is he sounds actually, doesn't he, like Zoran Mamdani in a way. He's got that sort of real aggressive, tub-thumping, but easy style that Mamdani has that was so successful for him.

4:41And I suppose the question then is whether that style, that style has got him over the edge here. It's one in the primary, but whether that style, that aggressive style, is going to be something that appeals to the whole state. Yeah, and there what he's talking about is the way in which Republicans are already campaigning against him. He often cites potential Islamophobia in people who are arguing against him and also that he's being mischaracterized in some ways by Republicans. And he knows that they are going to throw everything they have got at him. The kitchen sink will be flung at Abdul Al-Sayed in this campaign, not just in Michigan, but Republicans will use him nationwide as a bogeyman for what they will say Democrats represent across the country.

5:26So, I mean, he's right that it is going to be a pretty difficult and bitter campaign where people will try and drag him into the mud. The question is whether it's something that can then energize the Democratic base as a result of all of that or whether it's going to turn voters off. And that's something we don't know the answer to yet, but something we can definitely start exploring by looking at him as a candidate where he's come from. And you know a bit about this as well, Justin. I know you were talking to our colleague Sumi on the podcast last week about the possibility of El Saeed winning here.

5:54That's a very, very interesting listen if anybody wants to go back and listen to that as well. where you made it clear that he's a former public health official, child of Egyptian immigrants, who has come up through the left of the party but is not a member of the Democratic Socialist Alliance. We've got other DSA-backed candidates across the country. He is not one of them, and he doesn't even call himself a socialist, although he does espouse some pretty left-wing ideas. Yeah, so on that, it may be important. I mean, it sounds as if we're just splitting hairs, but it may be important because, as we also touched on in that episode with Sumi, that the DSA has some policies that are in American terms quite out there, quite far to the left, including getting rid of the Senate, which is where he's trying to go.

6:38So there is an important distinction that he makes between the DSA and him. But as you say, the DSA has backed him and he's very much got the support and the support of the kind of people who in other places like New York would back the DSA. So it's really, I mean, And is it fair to say it's Medicare for all that is the big thing? So health care for everyone. It's never quite clear to me. I've heard him talk about this a few times. It's never quite clear to me whether that means getting rid of private health care provision in the US, private health care insurance. Because that, of course, is always the kind of stumbling block, isn't it, where people on the left talk about health care for all.

7:19People say, well, I don't want to go into a system like Canada or Britain where you have a single payer system. and I can't keep my own health insurance that I'm perfectly happy with. And, you know, questions like that are going to be the ones that he's going to face now, isn't he? It has to be said, across the country, the idea of Medicare for all isn't universally unpopular at all. It depends on how you describe you want to implement it. And he's talking about significantly increased tax on the wealthiest, specifically on billionaires and really dramatic campaign finance reform. What he's not talking about is what a lot of Americans will imagine as soon as you hear the word socialism, because you know this very well, Justin, it's kind of synonymous with communism in America in a way it's not necessarily in Europe.

8:02It doesn't just mean left of centre here. It means pretty much seizing the means of production and nationalising them, having a government run economy, rather than just talking about things like providing health care for all. So that label is very dangerous in itself when it's attached to people, either like El Saeed or the DSA, because it conjures up quite frightening ideas of reds under the bed for a lot of American voters. So the victory matters because, well, for two reasons, really. I suppose the first, because it's the biggest victory for the progressive wing of the party. We talked a lot about New York and New York was obviously a huge victory for them.

8:40But this is a state and also it's the kind of state it is. So it's Midwest and it's a swing state. And that really matters. They're now testing themselves, the left of the party, the progressive left, testing themselves in this state. The other really significant thing, though, Sarah, it's worth mentioning, isn't it? He only just won and he'd been expected to have quite a blowout, hadn't he? A lot of the polls, including his own polls that he publicised before the election, seemed to suggest that he was going to win easily. and I just wonder how he copes now with that fact that he did almost lose.

9:15This wasn't a blowout. No, and the polling had been suggesting he was something like 10 points ahead. The same polling which, by the way, when it matched up Hayley Stevens, his more moderate competitor, and him against the Republican candidate showed Stevens winning in November, Al-Sayed not. But nonetheless, he won the primary but only just, as you say. Now, the theory of the case from the progressive wing of the party is that America is hungry for different ideas, that the Democratic Party hasn't been supplying them yet. And that you need to get rid of this notion of a continuum of politics from right to left, and that you can place everybody along that straight line somewhere or other.

9:53And that we need to look at post-Donald Trump politics completely differently, as a competition between elites and regular folk, between haves and have-nots, and the way in which economic questions of the last few decades haven't been answered in a way that works for the working class of America. And so the progressives say they can appeal pretty much to the same people who came out and voted for Donald Trump in the last three elections because they want to address the same issues that these people have in their lives. That's quite a persuasive case in some ways, but not if you look at the evidence of what happened with the voting on the ground in Michigan.

10:26El Saeed won among young voters, particularly well-educated voters, Muslim voters. Where he didn't particularly take votes and where Hayley Stevens won much bigger was among black voters, white working class, white voters in rural areas and older voters. And if you're not picking up those kind of people, particularly black and working class voters, then I think it's extremely difficult to say you are somehow putting forward a progressive slate that will appeal to people who maybe voted Trump in 2024, but could be persuaded to vote Democrat in 2028. The education difference, Sarah, is fascinating, isn't it?

11:03Because it's something we've seen before, but it seems to be becoming increasingly accentuated in the US. You remember Trump saying, we love the uneducated voters. We love people who haven't been to college, etc., etc. and really making a thing about it and speaking directly to them, that this now has become, hasn't it, a real divide within the Democratic Party, but also within wider American politics. If you are on the progressive left, you are increasingly likely to be someone who is very well educated with either a full college degree and possibly a master's degree as well. if you're not that way inclined within the democratic party and more widely within the us you're more likely to have finished school and nothing more and that divide is huge now isn't it and i and just wasn't the case i don't know 20 30 40 years ago no it's the biggest divide in american politics now it's the biggest predictor of whether you're going to vote republican or democrat is whether or not you outhold a college degree whether or not you finish the high school And I think that does speak to the idea that politics isn't the same as it used to be and simply a choice between left and right.

12:18Let's hear from Mike Rogers. So the Republican candidate who was mentioned in that clip we heard from Abdul Al-Sahid, mentioned as being someone who wants to stick him into a certain box and put him there. Let's get a flavor of what the Mike Rogers line is going to be, because where Abdul Al-Sahid wants to talk about health care, it is fair to say, isn't it, that Mike Rogers wants to talk about other things. Let's listen. I have never seen someone so radical, so extreme, get nominated by a political party. And the DSA candidates in the state in two different congressional races look like they're pulling it off as well.

12:58The Democrat Party is lost to this hardcore socialist attitude. And listen, I fought terrorism my whole life. I was an FBI special agent, U.S. Army officer, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. I find it shocking that I'm going to go up against a guy who believes America deserved 9-11. That's why this race is so important, Lawrence. Justin, the first thing we must say about that is that Abdul El-Sayed has not said that America deserved 9-11. That was a comment that was made by Hassan Piker, a streamer, influencer associated with the left, who El-Sayed has campaigned alongside. So that's why Mike Rogers is drawing that comparison between the two of them.

13:38But he is putting words in El-Sayed's mouth there. But it does show you the way in which the right is going to attack not just this candidate with his past associations with more radical people, but the way in which the right is generally going to use this playbook against these kind of candidates. And there is no doubt at all, isn't there, Sarah, that this is what the Republicans feel is a potential vulnerability of El Saeed when it comes to the general election, when it comes to having to appeal to Michiganders right across the board, including Michiganders who are still keen on the state of Israel.

14:11indeed Michiganders who are themselves Jewish who want this candidate to be a more moderate one than he has seemed to be and certainly not someone who pals around with Hassan Piker and it's really interesting isn't it that a lot of the campaign already and we're only hours into it already the campaign is focusing on his views on Israel and indeed his views more generally Donald Trump really went for him on Israel when he had a rally recently, a day or two ago, in Las Vegas. Let's listen to that. Abdul El-Sayed. Can you believe this?

14:50This could only happen to me. Abdul El-Sayed, lovely gentleman. He's a man of hate. And now he's going around saying, no, I love everybody. I love him. He doesn't love everybody. Put him in office. You're going to find out what he loves. He doesn't love Israel. He doesn't love Jewish people. He hates them. He hates them with a passion that burns in his heart. And there's not a freaking thing he can do about it. There's not a thing he can do about it because he hates them. Now, he's never said he hates Jews or Israel for that matter. But leaving aside that, he was accused of blaming a lot of America's ills on Jews by Hayley Stevenson, his competitor in the primary race.

15:34This is going to come up a lot because Israel was a big question in this race and it will be in all the Democratic primaries. I think this is the big fault line now that runs through the Democratic Party. And they're going to have to work out a new position on this, I think, because they're pretty split between older party members and voters who continue to support the state of Israel, which was always the party's position, and you still are, to be America's position, and younger activists who are very, very opposed to certainly the current leadership in Israel and its policy in the Middle East, particularly towards Gaza.

16:09And I mean, I know you've recognised this as well, just in the way it's coming up. It's a listmist test in the Democratic Party now. For a lot of people, if you are not prepared to use the G word, if you're not prepared to say that Israel committed genocide in Gaza, then there's a large swathe of the party will not support you in a primary, and might even turn away from you in the midterm elections or even a presidential election, especially in Michigan, a state where I spoke to people during the 2024 presidential election, really committed Democrat activists who said they would not vote for Kamala Harris because she wouldn't criticize Joe Biden's Israel policy and his closeness with Benjamin Netanyahu.

16:48They were furious with Harris. And they think it was her refusal to carve out a different policy towards Israel that cost her the presidential election. Now, it might have cost her Michigan. It didn't cost her the whole presidential election because she lost seven swing states. But there are people very, very convinced about that in the party, and they are going to want to test every potential candidate as to where they stand on Israel and judge them on it. And so I think this is going to become a bigger and bigger issue, actually, in democratic politics. It's not going to disappear in the rearview window.

17:19Yeah, and it's also hellishly complex because, on the one hand, there are plenty of Democrats. In fact, I'd probably say most Democrats would be absolutely clear that they do not like the current Israeli government. They do not like Benjamin Ashton Yahu, the prime minister. And they'd be quite clear about that, quite open about that. But then it gets difficult. So how much funding should there be for weapons for Israel? How much funding should there be for other things for Israel? And that is a question that splits the Democrats. but still those Democrats who would say fundamentally, well, we think Israel has a right to exist as the Jewish state.

17:55But then a further complication. What about those Democrats who do not think that Israel has a right to exist? It's interesting, isn't it, Sarah, that Al-Sayed, although plainly he doesn't hate Jews, and I don't think anyone would seriously make that charge against him, what is his view of the right of Israel to exist? And I have never heard him be absolutely plain that he thinks Israel has the right to exist in secure borders as the Jewish state. And that, it seems to me, is a potential difficulty not just for Jewish voters, but also more widely, actually, for Americans who sort of cleave to the general view that although Israel has done awful things, they would say that actually the state ought to remain there.

18:42That's probably still the majority view, Jessica. but I don't underestimate the way in which Americans' view towards Israel have changed quite dramatically in the last couple of years. And if you look at polling, you'll see that for the first time, a majority of Americans, about 60%, don't think that the US should automatically support Israel in whatever it does. If you ask if they have a more favourable view of the Israelis or the Palestinians, you'll see for the first time, since polling was asking this question in the last 25 years or so, you see a majority saying that they've got more sympathy towards the Palestinians.

19:13There's been quite a significant shift in public opinion, actually, and that kind of knee-jerk support that there used to be on the left and the right for Israel in America. It's changing quite significantly. But Abdul Al-Sayed, as you say, Justin, has to clarify his position of exactly where he stands. And he was asked about American support for Israel in an interview he did with CNN with Caitlin Collins just after he won the primary this week. I'm opposed to unconditional military aid for any country. That is Israel, yes, but that's also Egypt, where my family immigrated from. That's Pakistan, that's Saudi Arabia, that's the UAE.

19:46And that's not because of a focus on what's happening anywhere except for a focus on what's happening here. I don't want to fund a foreign military that does genocide, apartheid, or has taken us to a war we don't need to fight. I believe in equal rights to peace, dignity, and self-determination for Jewish Israelis and Palestinians alike. I believe our responsibility, though, more than anything else, is to use our tax money here in Michigan to provide health care in Michigan and schools in Michigan and roads in Michigan, rather than to send it to a foreign government that might use it in the form of bombs and tanks.

20:17I think it's important that all of us feel safe and Jewish safety to me is a priority, just like the safety of my own daughters. But I do think it's important for us to differentiate between safety and between our different political positions about the interests of a foreign government. And I do think that it's unfortunate when people mix those issues. I've been very, very clear. Jewish people and Judaism are a light unto the world. I'm deeply grateful for them. And I will always stand with the Jewish people against any anti-Semitism in any type, just like I understand the experience of being discriminated against for how I pray.

20:52I don't want anybody discriminated against for how they pray. I think what was really interesting listening to him also there, though, was as he's talking about not wanting to provide unconditional military aid for any country, and that's sparked obviously by the money that the US gives to Israel, you do get echoes of No More Forever Wars and the kind of America First policy talking about not wanting to get embroiled in other people's conflicts around the world, wanting to save the money and attention to deal with the domestic situation, to put your funding into education and healthcare, rather than sending it to foreign governments.

21:28And I think that is one way in which actually it's really interesting to watch the left and the right coming together on something that wasn't being talked about much 10 years ago or so, but it is actually becoming a more prevalent idea in American politics. Righty-ho, that is a perfect moment, Sarah, in which we can turn to Mike Murphy, because Mike Murphy is joining us now on the line. The great Mike Murphy, who has been such a leader in the Republican Party, the former Republican Party, the Mitt Romney Party, the John McCain Party, the Arnold Schwarzenegger party as well. He is no fan of Donald Trump, it is fair to say.

22:02He's also the co-host of Hacks on Tap, which is this fantastic US podcast. If you can't get enough America with us, you should certainly go there to get it. So, Mike, it's a real pleasure to talk to you. Thanks for joining us. Oh, thank you. I'm happy to be here. Good to see you guys. Now, can I start by asking you this? We've been discussing, Sarah and I, this victory for abdul al-sayed and it's obviously a very big deal there's no question about that but there are obviously dangers there as as well how do you see it how do you place it in terms of the kind of balance between whoa big deal this is going somewhere and could be greatly successful for the democrats and woo hang on a second this could be a mistake i'm more of the woo hang on a second model because you know i'm an independent voter now but i'm still a conservative ideologically I'm not in love with the progressive left, but I want the Republicans under Trump, kind of the dictatorship of Trump right now to have less power.

22:58So I want Democrats to win elections. I'm hoping we get back to a world where I can go back and start beating Democrats again. But in the present crisis, got to get rid of Trump and the lockstep Republicans behind him. So why take a risk in a critical control of the Senate race like Michigan? Now, I know Abdul, I'm friendly with him. I think he's an impressive guy. But ideologically, I can't support him. And I'm worried that he'll be less effective as a candidate. And Mike Rogers might win the Republican candidate. And here's why. The election wants to be in these swing states, a negative referendum on Trump, basically about the economy and some of the family corruption.

23:41That is the natural order of things right now. But when the Democrats nominate a controversial candidate, they give the Republicans something to talk about other than Trump and move the focus of the election away from, well, we got to change what's going on in Washington. We're getting killed economically here, the tariffs, everything else, to wait a minute, this guy wants to blow up Israel, defund the police, you know, seize the means of production. So they give the Republicans something to work with. And I would say, why do that? Does the fact that he nearly lost to Stevens, does that fact also then weigh on his ability to win when it comes to it in November?

24:21Yeah, I think it's a live concern. And, you know, I'm an old Michigan hack. I grew up in Detroit. I've done five successful statewide Senate and governor, et cetera, and state office campaigns there. When you look at the returns, you know, he got 50 and a half and she got 49 and a half where the vote came from. he blew it out in the college towns and with kind of the college educated white well-educated luxury opinion liberals and that was enough to barely win she won the factory town she won the automotive workers she won the african-americans in detroit so when you look at her vote they are more culturally conservative and more susceptible except for the african-american vote which is loyally Democratic.

25:08But those UAW voters in the auto plants and the supply plants, they're low-hanging fruit for Rogers to peel off him. They're older, more Catholic, more blue-collar, more culturally conservative. You know, it's funny, these Bernie candidates, and Ploutner was the same in Maine before he blew up. They're always talking about, we're going to fight for the working class, and then the working class goes out and votes for somebody else. Well, they carry the faculty logic. And it was the same with El Syed. He did great at the University of Michigan and Isabella County, Central Michigan. You know, if you've got two PhDs in aromatherapy candle making and ancient poetry, you were for him.

25:48If you're bended metal for a living on the Dodge line, you were for her. You were for Haley Stevens. Yeah. And Mike, earlier we were talking about how that does tend to suggest that this idea that the Democrats need to get behind a more populist economic message and that that's the way to counter Trumpism rather than with traditional centrist politics is defied by the demographics of how the votes fell in Michigan for El Saeed. But what you were saying earlier, I know you know that you were characterising El Saeed in the way that Republicans will, because it's not true that he wants to seize the means of production, defund the police or blow up Israel.