Will the Democrats’ shutdown gamble pay off?

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0:59The Democrats are back. They have forced the shutdown of the federal government in the United States. It is a very big move, a big move politically. It puts them in the spotlight once again. Are they going to gain from it politically or not? Welcome to AmeriCast. AmeriCast. AmeriCast from BBC News. When Donald Trump calls, they say, yes, sir. Right away, sir. Happy to lick your boot, sir. We are the sickest country in the world. Oh, dear. Are you worried that billionaires are going to go hungry? Of course the president supports peaceful protests. What a stupid question. Are you still talking about Jeffrey Epstein?

1:46Hello, it's Justin in the worldwide headquarters of AmeriCast in London, England. And it's Anthony in the shutdown headquarters of America, Washington, D.C. OK, two subjects today. We will get to TikTok because it is hugely important, it seems to me, who owns TikTok and how the algorithm works. It's important anyway because loads and loads of people in the United States use it. But it's important politically because there are those who think it will have an outsized influence on the next election and on the way that people get information for the next election because they don't want to listen to podcasts, although, of course, lots do that as well.

2:19So we will get to TikTok. But first, let's start with the Democrats and the shutdown. And Anthony, a big move from them, a move that feels to many of their supporters, finally, finally, like they're getting to grips with Donald Trump. But it's not without dangers. Not without danger. And from the beginning of this year, the Democrats really only had one play. I mean, they're out of power. They don't control either chamber of the U.S. Congress. They don't control the presidency. They have a tenuous hold on the courts. The Supreme Court is definitely conservative leaning. So they didn't have a lot of options.

2:53one option they did have because of the rules of the U.S. Senate is they can block things. Now, they haven't used that opportunity in the past. There was a budget negotiation in March, and they decided not to use their ability to block the budget from being approved and forcing the shutdown back then. And actually, Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader and other Democratic leaders were harshly criticized by their base for not trying to do more to stop Donald Trump and stop the Republicans in Congress. So this time around, when we came to another deadline for passing a budget, October 1st, the Democrats this time around hit that big red button in the middle of the table, then ground everything to a halt.

3:35And now we'll see how it all plays out. But they are the ones who are blocking essentially what Republicans are trying to do, which is to keep the government open at the existing funding levels, the ones that they passed earlier this year, which gives conservatives an advantage with their legislative agenda and their spending levels. But it is a means to grind things to a halt. Where it goes from here, however, as you mentioned, is fraught with political risk. Okay. And to prevent the political risk getting out of hand and to focus everyone's minds on the message they want, what they've been saying is that we We absolutely have one single thing that we are concerned about that has made us do this.

4:19And that is the cuts, essentially cuts to Obamacare, isn't it? Cuts to the Affordable Care Act that mean that some people who are getting pretty well subsidised medicines at the moment and medicine more generally will not get it in the future. And that, they say, is part of what the Republicans are doing. And that single thing, this is the message, isn't it? And they want to get across that single thing is the reason why they're acting as they are. And that, they hope, is hugely popular. And we got a video, this amazing video, actually, because they are quite a double act now, aren't they? Bernie Sanders, the veteran left wing senator, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the congresswoman, who may well be a candidate.

5:02In fact, I think she's almost certain to be a candidate in 2028, coming together to make this pitch to the American people. If you don't have the money to go to a doctor and you're sick, you die. And that's what this clean bill is about. And so Republicans want us to rubber stamp that. And we're saying no, we need to stand up for the American people. We need to stand up for our health care system. And if they want our votes, they need to make sure that we're protecting every American and making sure that we can do what we can to continue to make health care accessible, affordable as we work to make it a human right for all.

5:41Right. So let me just back that up. Remember, right now, our health care system is broken. Right now, we're the only major country on Earth not to guarantee health care to all people. And these guys want to make it even worse. We're not going to let that happen. No, we're not. All right. So what we're seeing there is the Democrats essentially trying to fight a battle they lost already this year with the big, beautiful bill. The big, beautiful bill, if you'll remember, Justin, was the Trump backed Republican budget proposal that slashed a lot of spending on Medicaid, which is the health insurance program for the poor and is going to allow some subsidies to help people buy health insurance, low income people buy health insurance at the end of this year.

6:25So those things were already passed, but they were passed in a way that Democrats didn't have a chance to block it. A procedural thing in the Senate, but even with their minority, they weren't able to to gum it up. This time around, they do have the ability to block funding for the government. And so they're trying to make this about what they weren't able to to make that big, beautiful bill debate about. And that is health care spending, because as as you mentioned, Justin, this is an issue that Democrats feel like they have the public on their side. And not only that, when these insurance rates start to go up, the subsidies go away, tens of millions of Americans lose their health insurance.

7:02They're banking on the fact that there's going to be a lot of anger among the American public. And they are positioning themselves now to take advantage of that anger, to say, see, I told you so. This is why we are fighting for you. And it is the Republicans who are doing this. And they're the ones who bear the brunt of the blame. Got to say, at the moment, Donald Trump doesn't look too worried by this, does he? He posted this photo on Truth Social of a meeting that he'd had with the Democratic congressional leadership in which there are Trump 2028, these red hats, Trump 2028 hats, actually on the Oval Office desk during the meeting.

7:39And I think it's fake, actually. I think they were genuinely there. But there's fakes as well that is done under this weird AI video, which we ought to listen to, I suppose. What's actually going on in it? Well, in this video, it was a press conference that Chuck Schumer, the Senate minority leader, Democratic leader in the Senate, and Hakeem Jeffries, the minority leader in the House, were holding outside the White House after that meeting in the Oval Office with the Trump hats and everything else, except that Trump or someone affiliated with him used AI to change what Chuck Schumer was saying.

8:13Not only that, but then also to change Hakeem Jeffries to make it look like he was wearing a sombrero and had like a big Mexican fake mustache and mariachi music in the background. This was to drive home the point Trump was trying to make, the allegation he was making that Democrats are not just trying to get health insurance provided to low income people, but they want health insurance to undocumented migrants. Here is the clip so you can hear what he has to say. It's obscenity laced. I don't know if we're beeping it out, but it was a pretty coarse, pretty demeaning and racially tinged video.

8:50OK, let's listen to it. Just to be clear, Anthony, as you've made clear, but let's absolutely underline it. Chuck Schumer did not actually say any of this, but let's listen to it. Look, guys, there's no way to sugarcoat it. Nobody likes Democrats anymore. We have no voters left because of all of our woke trans. Not even black people want to vote for us anymore. Even Latinos hate us. So we need new voters. And if we give all these illegal aliens free health care, we might be able to get them on our side so they can vote for us. They can't even speak English. So they won't realize we're just a bunch of woke pieces of, you know, at least for a while until they learn English and they realize they hate us, too.

9:33Did that actually come from the White House, Anthony? You know, it was one of these things that Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social account. It probably was generated by someone else, a supporter, but Trump amplified it. I'm not sure exactly the origins of it, but the White House. So it's a bit like it's like that Gaza video, isn't it? It's out there to shock. They see it and they think, what the heck, let's just put it out. And I should also emphasize the point that federal law prohibits these insurance subsidies, Medicaid benefits from going to undocumented migrants. So this is a false allegation that Trump is making here.

10:12While there is some truth to the fact that legal migrants, legal immigrants in this country would benefit from these subsidies, undocumented migrants are prohibited. So, you know, it's kind of a conflating of a thing to try to make it more unpopular, more controversial, trying to generate public anger. But it's doing it. I mean, the basic premise of this is wrong. And obviously it's doing it in a kind of a racist way. So here's here's a team Jeffries responding to that video in comments afterwards. We are fighting to lower the high cost of living and to protect the health care of everyday Americans.

10:52And Mr. President, the next time you have something to say about me, don't cop out through a racist and fake AI video. When I'm back in the Oval Office, say it to my face. Say it to my face. OK, he's not amused, but then Donald Trump responded then to that, didn't he? So he posted Hakeem Jeffries responding to the video on Truth Social with the same fake moustache, the same sombrero and images of mariachi band characters as well. So it's fair to say that neither man is stepping down. And as ever, support for the president from the vice president, J.D. Vance. Oh, I think it's funny. The president's joking and we're having a good time.

11:47You can negotiate in good faith while also poking a little bit of fun at some of the absurdities of the Democrats' positions and even poking some fun at the absurdity of the Democrats themselves. I mean, I'll tell Hakeem Jeffries right now, I make this solemn promise to you that if you help us reopen the government, the sombrero memes will stop. Somehow, I think the Democrats will not be reassured by that assurance. So getting back to the Oval Office photo of the Trump 2028 hats, Hakeem Jeffries, according to reports, leaned over when Trump tried to hand those hats to Schumer and Jeffries, looked at J.D.

12:22Vance and said, well, what do you think of that? Because Vance obviously has 2028 presidential ambitions that would be thwarted if Trump found a way of running again. And Vance kind of dead face said, I have no comment. yeah so actually i mean it's weird isn't it because they do this and hakim jeff has openly said it's racist and yet they are going to meet again almost certainly they'll have to meet again if they're going to bring all this to an end and and from the white house they seem to think that this is just well as jd vance was saying it's all part and parcel of everything i just wonder if they feel they slightly got the upper hand because there is something a bit wooden to put it bluntly in the minds of many Democrats about their congressional leadership.

13:06They think Hakeem Jeffries is not quite as energetic as he should be, as forceful as he should be. And Chuck Schumer definitely, you know, the feeling, isn't it, behind the scenes with a lot of Democrats is it really has seen better days. He's not suited to this era when it comes to communications, et cetera, et cetera, not really suited to living up to Donald Trump. And so the Trump team kind of feel they've got the upper hand, don't they? Yeah, you know, obviously when Chuck Schumer is the face of your party, he's not the most charismatic, most engaging personality. I was actually kind of surprised Hakeem Jeffries hasn't elevated his stature more.

13:47In fact, I think one of my predictions at the beginning of this year was that Hakeem Jeffries would become the face of the Democratic Party and be effective in that. That hasn't been the case. And part of the reason I think it hasn't been the case is because Democrats haven't had the ability to do much in Congress in the minority. And now, finally, this has given them a bit of a platform. But the memes and the insults and the misrepresentations, I mean, that kind of is par for the course in American politics now. And and so I think, you know, maybe J.D. Vance is right, saying that the American public can differentiate between AI videos and and what's real and will treat this as as a joke.

14:27But but you're also, I think, right that the Republicans feel like they have the upper hand here, that they're the ones who are just trying to keep the government open. It's Democrats that are trying to block things. And and usually when shutdowns have happened in the past, it's the the party that grinds things to a halt, the party that's making demands. they're the ones that get the public's blame. And it's a little too early to tell so far how that's going to shake out. But Republicans don't seem all that disappointed that there's a shutdown now and don't seem all that concerned about what it might do to Trump and the Republicans' political standing.

15:03Yeah, you do feel if they are going to avoid getting the blame, and indeed the opposite, actually make hay out of this, the Democrats have got to have a kind of forceful leadership. And never mind the Democratic Party, Anthony, Never mind people in the United States. Right around the world, I think it's fair to say, there are people saying, come on, get your act together. And we hear regularly, don't we, really regularly from people saying, who's in charge of the Democrats? We've had another, Sid in West Sussex, who's been in charge saying, I'd like to know if the Democrats actually have a leader at the moment.

15:31It seems there is nobody to counter the constant stream of Trump administration nonsense. It would also surely be advantageous to use the classic opposition party tactic to constantly criticise everything the party in power do and blame them for every problem while giving nothing away about their own policies. Is Kamala Harris, Siddhar, still the leader of the party? And if so, where is she? Well, she's on a book tour, isn't she? She's on a book tour. And if you look at her book, I mean, it's not the kind of thing that you would come out with if you're positioning yourself to be the leader of the party.

16:03It's pretty frank and pretty critical, honestly, of some of her fellow Democrats. I don't think she seems interested. I mean, maybe when 2028 rolls around, she might jump back in. But at least the moment she isn't trying to present herself as the face of the Democratic Party. And that's kind of a reflection of how the American system works, how the American political party system works. There's no shadow government. There's no leader in waiting that that is the face of the out of power party. It really kind of depends on what levers of power your party holds, who becomes elevated as kind of the public face of that.

16:39And because the Democrats don't really have any power in Washington, it's been hard for any of these people, whether it's Chuck Schumer or Hakeem Jeffries or even Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Bernie Sanders, to break through and be that one face of the party, particularly when there are a lot of people who want to be the face of the party and they're all kind of trying and scrambling around. Yeah, and you wonder whether Zoran Mandani is going to become the face of the party, even if the wider party doesn't necessarily want that to be the case, if he's elected mayor of New York and if he becomes a kind of great star of the Democrats in a way that further discomforts them.

17:15But just before we get to the kind of wider thinking about whether there is a sort of proper preparation going on, a proper debate, a constructive debate going on about where the party wants to be. It's just worth saying about the Kamala Harris book as well, in case people haven't seen it or seen reviews of it. It's quite backward looking, isn't it? I mean, you said it doesn't seem to be a kind of program for her to stand on for for 2028. It is very much about the things that happened. I mean, even the title, isn't it? It's all about the campaign and the way she was let down by, it was a long list of people who let her down, wasn't it?

17:50In fact, pretty much everyone, it seems to me, did from the book, possibly accepting herself. But it doesn't have a kind of program for where America needs to be in a decade's time, does it? In any way, shape or form. No, no, it's not a campaign book. You know, a lot of politicians, when they're thinking about running for national office, come out with these, you know, vision for America type books. And oftentimes they're ghostwritten or co-written with someone behind the scenes to make sure that it is dry and non-controversial and can kind of get the points that the campaign, the nascent campaign may want.

18:26I mean, Kristi Noem is the one exception to that, the governor of— Yes, the dog. —who talked about killing dogs in her books. That was a bit of a mistake. But generally these things are pretty safe reads. And that's not, as you mentioned, that's not what Kamala Harris's book is, which makes it interesting. And I think, you know, makes it worthwhile to kind of see, you know, peel back the curtain and see what was going on behind the scenes and some of the some of the strategies and some of the obstacles she feels she has. But but, yeah, a platform on which to run, it's not. And, you know, you talk about who's benefiting, who's who's kind of been emerged as a face of the Democratic Party right now.

19:08I would suggest that it's the Democratic governors more than anything in Washington that have benefited the most from this year. And that's Gavin Newsom in California and J.B. Pritzker in Illinois in particular. They're the ones who have had the real platform and the real power because they're governors and they have control in their states to offer more robust resistance to what Trump is trying to do. OK, so those are the names. what then are the policies potentially because because this is the next question that that people ask and in fact again we've had well we get these questions all the time but uh for instance anthony barry gibson in new york city says um has written us a text actually so after leaving office donald trump and his team clearly spent four years planning and preparing for a second term he's thinking about project 2025 which wasn't necessarily i suppose trump himself and his team But it was certainly people who wanted him to win, wasn't it?

20:05So does the team, our team, see any sign of preparation or planning by the Democrats for 2028? I think that's a really interesting question, Anthony, because that goes to the heart of whether they're addressing with real honesty the reasons why they lost last time. And the big kind of overarching question about whether everything has changed in American politics because of Trump and whether they've got to change, too, or whether they can sort of just sort of sneak back in because everything will sort of revert to normal once Trump is off the scene. It's those big things. I suppose that's that's the thing.

20:41Are they addressing them or are they hiding from them? Yeah. And I think you have 100 different groups that have 100 different plans. And if you have 100 plans, then you don't have any plan, I suppose. And that's kind of a reflection of where the Democratic Party is, where there is no kind of central, cohesive organization or leader to unite the party around. And that was what was unique about Donald Trump and what happened after after 2020 is that, you know, Trump from very early on, it seemed planned on running again. He had a team around him who had experience managing, operating within the federal government for four years and a lot of thoughts on what their obstacles were and what the challenges were and how to get around them the next time around.

21:26It also became very clear within the first year or so that Donald Trump was the front runner to be the nominee. So you had this kind of a unique set of circumstances where there was one person and one team all making the same plan, all getting ready to to take power. And Project 2025 was part of it. But but there were also plans within Trump's closest circle on what to do. And then when Trump got reelected, it was it was just, you know, flip the switch. And and we've seen what's happened this year with the velocity with which these plans have been been implemented. And I just think it's impossible for Democrats to have something similar because there are just too many people buying for that leadership position with too many different priorities.

22:13And you see the party being pulled in a bunch of different ways. Yeah, I agree with that. But I do think I think Barry and others who ask us this question deserve an answer that at least points in the direction of a kind of fundamental debate that really genuinely is now taking place in the party. And I would point him and everyone else is interested in the Democrats in the direction of Ezra Klein. I mentioned him before on the pop because he is a New York Times journalist and he's an author, very popular author. His books do incredibly well on the sort of mainstream left and is a great critic of the left, though he is of the left himself.

22:53But he has really gone for it in the wake of the killing of Charlie Kirk. He wrote this piece, didn't he, Anthony, saying that the assassination was an awful thing, which lots of people thought, but also going further than that, praising Charlie Kirk, praising him practicing politics the right way. That's what Ezra Klein said, practicing politics the right way and asking the question, do we have any one in the Democrats who's willing to practice politics the right way? In other words, to go to our opponents and talk to them and lecture them and argue with them as Charlie Kirk did. And my goodness, there was quite a reaction to it on the left.

23:38And here he is speaking to the New Yorker. So this is Ezra Klein on why the Democrats should avoid the politics of hate. I think we should not engage in oppositional mirroring where whatever the other side does, we do. right? You hate me? Oh, well, you know what? I hate you. And he also said the Democrats were continuing to reject Trump voters, which was a hangover from 2016 when Hillary Clinton, of course, characterized at least some of those who voted for Trump or were planning to at that stage as a basket of deplorables. Here he is. I do think this politics of deplorables was very real. There is certainly people, right, who don't agree with the things I believe in the world, right?

24:20They began to feel that the Democratic Party genuinely didn't like them. And one of my strongest, most strongly held views about politics, one of my most strongly held views about politics is that the most important question for a voter is not whether they like you, but whether you like them. If they're going to trust you with power, the first thing is not whether they agree with you. The first thing is just whether or not they feel you like them and will take them into consideration. OK, a couple of critiques of that. First of all, do you think that Democratic voters feel that Donald Trump likes them?

24:52You know, I mean, the door swings both ways. Right. And and it almost seems like Ezra Klein is endorsing the Michelle Obama strategy from 2016, which is when they go low, we go high. And I think there are a lot of Democrats who felt, well, we tried that and we got kicked in the face. And it almost seems like the reaction to that was we need to be more pugnacious. We need to fight harder. We need to get down and mix it up with Donald Trump more. And just ignoring him and trying to take the high road and be friendly and be nice to his voters and understand their concerns is how we got into this mess to begin with.

25:31Yeah, I think what Ezra Klein would say to that is, hang on a second, Donald Trump won. So there are enough people who think he likes them, if that is important in politics. And I sort of get his point that it is important in politics. As a voter, you have got to feel that the person you're voting for does kind of like you or at least accept your right to think the things that you think. And there is this sense, isn't there? God, we've talked about it so much on the pod, haven't we, down the years now, actually, that the Democrats tend to have this kind of sniffy attitude to the voters and their concerns, that just sort of exudes a feeling that people are using language they shouldn't, thinking thoughts that they shouldn't, behaving in ways that they shouldn't, when it comes to climate change, etc., etc.