Passive is Eating the Market (EP.347)

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26:40Of course. But I'd note the biggest bubbles of the last five years were SPACs, direct listings, private rounds, crypto NFTs, collectibles, self-storage, and private credit. One thing all of them have in common, they were never or barely invested in index funds. That's a fair counterpoint. How is that a counterpoint? I don't know. How is that a counterpoint? Because the whole thing is that like index funds, the money keeps going into them, so it drives up valuations and the companies in the indexes keep going up. And there was so much silly behavior that happened outside of index funds that I think index funds are so low on what you should be worried about in terms of what's going on in the markets.

27:14I think it should barely even get a passing mention. There's so much other stuff to worry about in the markets. Fair. My last thing I'll say about this is that if you were to look inside the market, there are plenty of winners and plenty of losers. The market is sussing out the winners from the losers. And who had this chart showing like 90-day correlation between us and P500 companies? And it's low. The market for mega cap stocks or large cap stocks is functioning pretty well in my opinion. This is what you can't say as a hedge fund manager that you should be saying is, I can't beat the NASDAQ 100 for the past 10 years.

27:48That's why my returns stink. Because the NASDAQ 100 has been so strong. And I couldn't go all in on these stocks like everyone else. That's what they're complaining about. Yeah, I get it. So you blame index funds. because it's impossible to beat over the last 10 or 15 years just concentrated ownership in Apple and Amazon and Google and Microsoft and Facebook and video. If index funds did not exist, these companies would still be the biggest winners. Yes. I agree. That's a good point. And they all crashed in 2022 as well. Right. All right. I like this take from Taleb, which have you actually read any of his books before?

28:29I read, I think I read Fooled by Randomness. They're kind of hard reads. That book was a hard read for me. Black Swan, I think, is a better title than it is a book. I didn't mean to throw shade at him, but his books are kind of hard to read because he's a really smart guy. So he says, he quote tweets this story in Bloomberg about how Black Swan fund manager says start when the Fed cuts rates. And I think a lot of these Black Swan managers have turned into just perma bears because they know that's good for their funds. Uh, and so Taleb says one of the biggest mistakes by finance idiots, uh, is to conflate tail risk awareness with bearishness.

29:05Believing in black swans does not equal perma bears. And I love this take because that's so true. Like the, the understanding that they're going to be outlier events does not mean that you have to be bearish all the time for them to, he's saying, yes, I know these are going to happen, but you can't predict them. That's the whole point of a black swan. I think I've heard a lot of these guys say, having exposure to these Taylor strategies allows you to be more long and sleep at night. And I think that I love that idea. That's the best sales pitch for it. Yeah, I think the problem is when you package these strategies into like a, I'm thinking to say passive, but it's not passive, like into like a rules-based strategy.

29:47Like if you pack it in like an ETF wrapper, they haven't really worked very well. I think that everybody in theory would pay, would bleed, I don't know, 4 % to 6 % a year in order to get a 30 % return when you get a fixed spike, whatever the numbers are. Problem is, in reality, it just doesn't look like that. Like, they bleed a lot more than that. Yes. With an option strategy, I think you have to understand how the pricing of these things change. Like, I would much rather invest in a hedge fund that does this professionally and pay 2 in 20 than buy one of these in an ETF wrapper. I think that's fair.

30:28It's just, it's, I know why they're trying to sell the bearishness because when stocks are going up, these strategies are just bleeding money every single day. But from a portfolio's perspective, great. If you think about this as insurance, like I don't want to cash in on that. We know that blowups in the market are inevitable. They're inevitable. They're guaranteed. They are permanent features of the market that cannot be done away with. The best form of a tail hedge is just holding more cash because you know you're not going to bleed returns. Yeah. And I'm guessing if you compared the returns on a tail risk strategy to T-bills over a longer term timeframe, it's probably pretty close.

31:08And the T-bills doesn't lose you money nominally. But the point is like, people don't mentally live in long periods of time. When there's a blow up, to be protected from that matters a lot mentally. T-bills protect you though. I think T-bills are the best tail risk strategy there is. But you know what I'm saying. They don't offset losses everywhere else in your portfolio. Right. But to your point, you need someone who's really going to get the bang for the buck when that happens. You need to see like a 300 % return to offset anything. Yeah, you don't want to bleed 8 % a year and then get a 15 % return when these things, like the risk war needs to really be asymmetric.

31:49All right. Here's something that's bullish for financial advisors. This is from the Wall Street Journal. More Americans are turning 65 this year than at any prior time in history. They show the people turning 65 by year. And next year, it's going to break another record. The year after that, it's going to be higher than this year. But I think it looks like next year is going to be the actual record of people turning 65. So we have roughly 4 million people turning 65 every year from now until the end of the decade. 20 % of those Americans 65 or older were employed in 2023, which is nearly double the share of those who were working 35 years ago.

32:21Today's 65-year-olds are wealthier. The median net worth of 65 to 74 is$410 ,000 in 2022, up from$282 ,000 in 2010, inflation-adjusted dollars. I think there's just a wave of money coming into financial advisors and RIAs in the coming years from older people who need to know what to do with their money. That's bullish for annuities. it's just it's we've never ever seen a demographic this large this wealthy before that's going to live as long as they're going to live we've never seen it so i don't know anyone trying to guess the ramifications of it and i also think the 20 of people working still someone sent us an email to our what do we call it personal emails personal responses saying that i was a little too uh goldilocks about the fact that we've kind of ended the retirement crisis and saying there's still, you know, 40 % of people who really don't have any money saved and all this stuff.

33:20I think a lot of people are going to have to continue to work longer as well. The people who don't have a lot of money saved into their old age, because people are healthier and living longer than they were. So I think the labor force is going to continue to get older as well. And a combination of social security and help from their kids. Yes. Right. Which is, or home equity. Circle of life. All right. Consumer credit still has a lot of room to run. Another one from Son of Orgis at Carson, who, again, really good charts. So he's showing credit utilization rates, the percentage of available credit.

33:55So this is kind of like my 0 % credit card strategy, which got an email last week from Chase. Dear Mr. Carlson, we're increasing your credit. I didn't even ask. They just did it. That's how good my credit score is. I need to up my credit capacity. Capacity. I got a call from the guy that does all my insurance today. Hey, time to pay the auto and the homeowners. It's a lot of money. I was like, is this going to go through? As I gave him my credit card, he's like, and you're good. Wait, what stone age are you living in where an insurance person calls you to tell you how much you owe? You don't get an email about this and just pay it online?

34:34I thought I had it set on auto pay. No, I have an insurance broker, which was wonderful. Love it. Okay. One of my favorite emails from the last couple weeks or comments was someone said, Michael needs to get a fridge broker because you have an insurance broker, a car broker. That's good. You know, so just one thing in the home insurance is so much money. It's unbelievable. And it's the type of thing that nobody thinks about. Like your home is an investment. I'm sorry. If you net everything out, taxes, insurance, maintenance, like you, you'll get, you'll get 1 % of you on your home. I think that's what Zillow says.

35:10Plan to spend 1 % to 2 % of the value of your home every year if you add all those ancillary costs in. Maybe Michigan is low, but my home insurance is not that much money. All right, mine's a lot. What do you think people net on their house like over a 20-year period? I think it's like 1 % to 2%, obviously depending on a million. No, I wrote about this. It's the most impossible asset class to figure out what the actual return is because you have to add the leverage piece in. It's really difficult to understand what the actual return is. Because if you're putting only 20 % down or 10 % down, you have to include the leverage on it as well.

35:45What's the all-in investment at the beginning? So yeah, the costs are high. Just to net everything out, all of the money that you put in, the down payment, the annual thing, all the money you put in. Closing costs, your favorite. Versus all of the money that you get out, it's 1 % to 2%. That would be my guess. Yeah, you beat inflation. I think for some people, though, it's probably closer to 10 % a year. depending on when they bought, because of the leverage involved. Fair, fair. I'm just saying, like, when you talk about the people that bought a house for$150 ,000 and sold it for$450 ,000 over 30 years, well, yeah, that's a great return, except you're not netting a CVS receipt-sized list out.

36:25Yeah, my parents have been in their house since 1991, same house. They've put new siding on, new roofing, new windows, new flooring. all the, they've probably spent more on upkeep and fixing a house than they bought it at in 1991. I'm sure. Yeah. Which brings us into home equity. So Sonu's chart here shows credit cards and home equity as a utilization, like percentage of available credit, how much is being used. And credit cards are right on average. 24 % was a pre-pandemic. So this goes back to 2003. Home equity is below average. It got as high as 50, 60 % in the 2000s, 2010s. Now it's only 40%.

37:04and I think that home equity is effectively locked right now because rates are so high. But my point is, if we do get a slowdown and there's higher unemployment or whatever, there's room to run here for people to go higher on their credit utilization. People are going to be tapping that equity and then we're spending those credit cards. It's not like they're just going to say, you know what, I'm just going to pull back. I think people are going to be spending. I just had to throw this in here. This is from JP Morgan, the Consumer Balance Sheet. total assets versus total liabilities. Look at ScanDown.

37:34That's the Derek Henry, Mark Ingram meme. Right? So total assets is$171 trillion. Total liabilities$20 trillion. It just dwarfs it. It's good. It's good news, right? Yeah. So at my CFA talk, I was talking to some people about us telling them how you and I were walking around Kansas City, the commercial real estate stuff. It's like the biggest thing, biggest risk everyone knows about. And everyone, I keep asking people about this. I'm like, Like, so what's the solution? And everyone kind of just shrugs their shoulders and goes, I don't know. I don't see a solution. There was a story in Bloomberg where Janet Yellen said that while losses in commercial real estate are a worry, U.S.

38:08regulators are working to ensure that a loan loss, reserves, and liquidity levels in the financial system are adequate to cope. She said they've been talking to banking supervisors and have focused on the issue, making sure lenders have enough reserves and liquidity to handle the problem. So do we just get a bailout here? Is that what's going to happen? Because this is a risk that literally everyone sees. Like, do the banks eat a little bit, but then the government also bails them out? I don't know. I don't think that there would be a lot of appetite for that from the public. I'm looking for a chart.

38:41What if Yellen said, listen, you guys can all stay home and keep working remotely, but we're going to have to bail these buildings out. Otherwise, you have to come back and work at them. Fair trade-off? how about the lenders take some losses and the equity value goes down that too how about that how about cap how about capitalism it just it does just seem like the the risks that are staring you in the face are never the ones that cause like the system-wide panic i just feel like this is the austin powers meet austin powers steamroller coming at you get out of the way get out of the away. That's a great scene.

39:24Yeah. No, I don't, I don't, I don't, I don't know. I think that there's just a slow bleed and yeah, some, some equity gets, gets concussed. Concussed? Concussion. Yeah. I was going to say a dented, damaged. All right. Last we talked about layoffs and discharges and we said, what's the difference? We didn't know. Jessica at CNBC, many careful newsrooms will only use the word layoff when there is a chance the worker can be called back. So think seasonal business, including aviation, where they lay people off and then bring them back when travel gets busy. I didn't know that. I didn't know that. I didn't either.

39:58Discharges can be firing or resignation, but the employment has ended. No chance of being called back. That makes sense. So discharge is worse. Yeah. All right. The more you know. Okay. James Safer tweeted on Friday, GBTC had an outflow of 51.8 million, which was the lowest of the day. All right, interesting. Maybe all of the money that is going to leave has already left. That's crazy to me that$20 billion are going to stick in GBTC and pay one and a half percent fee. Well, they have no choice. Assuming that this is in a taxable account and assuming that you have a big gain, which you do because the prices are up a lot, you're not going to pay either short-term, certainly not short-term, or long-term capital gains.

40:48you're not going to pay 20 % to save 1%. Which is why they kept the fee so high because they knew that. Yeah, this is simple arithmetic. So can we assume that a lot of the reason for Bitcoin falling was pressure from Grayscale, all the outflows? But if you net it out, the flows are still positive. I don't know. Maybe it fell because there was a huge run and it was a little bit of a sell. I don't know. I don't know. But no, I don't think that GBTC ad flows were the reason why Bitcoin pulled back. I don't know. Nobody knows. I still think that a lot of it was lower than expectations, but the prices come right back.

41:31So what do I know? Fine, whatever. All right. Investor behavior story time. Bad behavior from myself. Now, before I embarrass myself, I have to point out that I get the big things right. I max out my 401k. Every month I contribute to our GoodAdvice platform in my taxable account. And all that money is not touching it. Never, ever, ever. It's long-term. It's index funds, buy and hold. Set it and forget it. Set it and forget it. I also contribute quite a healthy bit to my SEP IRA, not to brag. And in my SEP IRA, I buy individual stocks, which I'm probably not going to do for too much longer. because eventually the number will get large enough that I don't really feel like doing that anymore.

42:19For my taxable account, my taxable brokerage account, I essentially stopped picking stocks and I held on to five of them that I held and I converted it all to index funds. And any new money is going index funds. I just decided, you know what? I just, it was fun for a while to trade stocks. It's not my thing. I'm cleaning, I'm washing my hands of it. So in my SEP IRA, I have like, I don't know. I don't know what it is now. 11 stocks, something like that. and I'm not actively trading. I'm buying and holding. Again, at some point, I'll probably convert them to index funds. But I do, I don't do it because I think I'm going to beat the market.

42:51I love to do it. I love it. I have fun. I enjoy it still. So for now, I enjoy it. All right, so a couple of weeks back, I was talking about the money that I have in my high-yield savings account. And I took 40 grand out of it and I put it in, I said, you know what? I'm going to have some fun. I'm going to do some trading. Not into picking stocks where I'm going to buy and hold, but just have some fun. Buy some speculative stuff. And I bought PayPal and Snap and Enphase Energy and some other bullshit. I told you Snap was going to crash 30 % on earnings. So listen, not so bad. So the$40 ,000 that I put in there, it's now$34 ,000.

43:33So I said, you know what I want to do with this$34 ,000? I'm bullish on Bitcoin over the long term. And so I said, I don't want to be trading stocks. It's just like, I'm over it. I've been there, done it a billion times. So I was going to take that$34 ,000 and move it into my Robinhood account where I own my Bitcoin and Ethereum. What I could have done, and this was like last week when it was at like$42 ,000. What I could have just done was buy the ETF. Bought the ETF, right. Right. I could have easily just bought the ETF, but I said, you know what? No, no, no, no. No, no, no. I want to keep it clean.

44:12I want my retirement stuff here. I want my Bitcoin in my Robinhood account. So it's all in one spot. Right? I'm not crazy. That's like a thing people do. It's just like mental accounting or whatever you call it. You just, you want it. I don't want to have Bitcoin in three different accounts because I also have, yeah, it's a mental bucketing. And then as I'm waiting for my cash to clear, to move it to my Robinhood account, I missed it. It took off. Bitcoin went from$42 ,000 to$50 ,000. So. So now what are you doing? What am I doing? I don't know. Waiting for a pullback?

44:45Okay. I don't know. But I share all this to say, listen, we're all human, right? Like this is, we all do dumb shit. As long as you get the big things right, you can afford to be a jackass. It's true. Margin of safety. I too look at the maximum retirement counts as like the biggest margin of safety that there is. As long as you know that's okay. Yeah. Yeah. You can afford a few mistakes other places. Anyway, so that was fun. We're going to start an ongoing list here of Audi, Fridge, SEP IRA. No, no, no, no. My SEP IRA. I behave very well in my SEP IRA. Oh, no. I was just saying you're missed up here.

45:23But that was not on my SEP IRA. I can't really miss that much. I know. No, no. It's not a – listen. I'll be fine. No, my SEP IRA, I behave well. Because it's money I can't touch. Worry about it tomorrow. All right. This is a Rorschach test. This headline. Sam Altman seeks trillions of dollars to reshape business of chips and AI. OpenAI chief pursues investors, including the UAE, for a project possibly requiring up to$7 trillion. So what's the Rorschach test? Is that this is either people think this is a huge bubble or it's a huge opportunity? Is that the Rorschach test? Well, it's either, oh my God, this is, that's the top, right?

45:59$7 trillion. I mean, that's a lot of cash. I'll be honest. I didn't read past the headline of this story. Would it be impossible to come up with that much money? No, I don't think so. But the other side of the argument is, oh my gosh, look how much money is going to be coming into the space. How could you possibly fade it? True. This is why every new venture deal is in AI right now. Yeah. Because they assume that money is going to come in and they'll get bought or whatever. Okay. This is from Apollo. This seems high to me still. Actually, one last thing. just as I'm mentally circling back to like why I've made the decision to stop trading those stocks.

46:37Because if you're like just buying stocks you don't believe in, you're going to get shaken up by the volatility in two seconds. And I'm not even talking about Snap going down 30%, but like even a stock that you buy that goes down 12%, like if you don't believe in it, you're just, you're going to bail. Here's the other thing. It's way easier to forget about index funds. No one checks in on index funds on a daily basis. People check in on their stocks on a daily basis. It was too much. And oh, they're going to report earnings today. And I got a lot in. It's just easier to ignore bland, plain vanilla portfolios.

47:09That's one of those. What's one of their biggest selling points for me? Mental alpha. There you go. All right. Despite high mortgages, 31 % of homes sold above their list price recently. This got as high as 55%, it looks like in the crazy period. But this is still higher than it was from all of 2012 to 2019 or 2020. And it's rolling over. This still seems high to me. I guess this is because supply is still so low, but can you imagine if you were dealing with 7 % mortgage rates and you still had to pay above list? What a kick in the pants. This is higher than it was for the whole decade. All right, so they have this housing outlook piece, so I pulled a few charts.

47:53This is from Torsten Slott. 63 % of all mortgages outstanding were issued after 2018. I mean, we're never going to see a refi boom that big ever, right? That was the biggest refi boom in history. Wait, say that number one more time. 63 % of all mortgages outstanding were issued after 2018. That's a crazy high number. Whoa. Isn't that higher than you would have expected? I'm shook. That sounds ridiculous. How? I know. Well, a lot of, I'm guessing because a lot of the earlier mortgages were retired. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. This is active mortgages. is our refinances including it included in this bucket because that would make a lot of sense because everybody refined oh yeah that's what i'm saying it was the biggest refi boom in history okay okay here's another one completely missed that getting back to the boomer demographic thing the median age of all homebuyers is now 49 years old up from 31 in 1981 this is just you can slowly see the boomers moving up every year it goes up and up and up a little bit more Kind of crazy.

48:56All right, survey of the week. I think I have two surveys, maybe just one. Remember a couple weeks ago how you said, so you're saying people can't trust their feelings about the economy, and I said yes, they were wrong. I just think most people are bad at the economy, and not because they're idiots. Some of them are. I mean, let's be honest. But a lot of people just don't pay attention to this stuff because it's so outside of their realm of reality. So for the first time in four years, McLaughlin finds that more Americans say America isn't in a recession than it is one. So for the last four years, more people have been saying we're in a recession than not.

49:34I just think people are just bad at the economy because it's not part of their reality. I think that's right. The overall economy. If you ask the average person on the show, how's the economy doing? There's no reason why anybody would actually be aware. Right. Unless. Let me pull up the BEA data or the FRED data. These people aren't thinking that way. Yeah. Listen, if we're in a global recession and you've got unemployment of 10%, everybody knows that we're in a recession. But aside from that, aside from extreme periods of time, I think people have little to no idea of what's going on in the overall economy.

50:08It's also the same thing with the stock. How is the stock market doing? Most people probably couldn't tell you how it's really doing, even if they're invested in it, probably. All right. Young people are crushing it. This is Liberty Street Economics, which is the Federal Bank of New York. It's kind of funny how the Fed has their own blog post. Liberty Street Economics sounds like something an economics professor would name his blog. That's what they did. Good blog. This gets back to our young people doing fine. Younger adults far outpaced other groups and wealth growth since the pandemic. So let's see.

50:40Individuals 39 and younger, wealth increased by 80 % since 2019. In contrast, 10 % for those age 40 to 54 and 30 % for those 55 and older. Young people have seen by far the biggest increase in wealth. Now, the retort, I know we're not talking to commenters here, but let's just put that news resolution on hold. A lot of people tell us, well, of course, because the older people still hold all the wealth. So, of course, there's going to be a huge increase on a relative basis because young people hold less wealth. Okay, yes, they're starting from a lower base, but it has to start from somewhere, right?

51:13I think this is a good thing. Don't you? And it says the biggest reason was not housing, but the biggest reason was because young people shifted to equities and mutual funds. They're holding more financial assets. Maybe the Robin Hood effect was a positive. So young people actually put their money into stocks, and that's one of the reasons that they saw a big wealth increase. All right. That's a win. This is what happens as you age. You get married. You buy a house. You invest in stocks. You have more money. Yeah, I mean, that is, that's a big jump. It is, right? It's huge. Wait, people ages 40 to 54, did they panic sell?

51:55What's going on here? That's a good question. Only 10%. I'm kind of surprised by that, especially since the housing and everything grew. I thought, yeah, Gen Xers are soft. I've always said that. They think they're hard, but they're not. All right, somebody tweeted to us. This is from Douglas Adams, the salmon of doubt. I've come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies. This goes to Ben being rather pessimistic on the Vision Pro. Anything that is in the world when you're born is normal and ordinary, and it's just a natural part of the way the world works. Number two, anything that's invented between when you're 15 and 35 is new and exciting and revolutionary, and you could probably get a career in it.

52:41Number three, anything invented after your 35 is against the natural order of things. It's funny because it's true. Nailed it. Did you watch? I was going to say, wait a minute. I grew up and I dealt with the internet when I was a young person, but that falls in my 15 to 35. Yeah, very accurate. Did you watch the video that I told you to watch of Tim Urban working with a Vision Pro on? Yes. I don't think the work, I think the movie aspect of it is probably the thing I'm most intrigued about. The working on it and having all these screens and moving around and typing with my hand, that doesn't look like it would be any more efficient than the three screens I have on my desk already.

53:21I don't see why that would be more efficient. Not everybody has three screens. To me, that looked like pretty damn exciting. Okay, I don't think the work stuff to me is, yeah, it's funny because on that video, he said, think about how expensive it would be to buy a screen like this. And I was thinking, well, you spent$4 ,000 on the Vision Pro. So I don't think you're actually saving money here. But again, I think the movie big screen part, which you've been excited about, like you want to wear it on a plane, even though you're going to look like an idiot. I think that's the part that would most excite me.

53:53I can't wait. Every time I see people do like demos and stuff, I'm not a buyer at$3 ,500. That's absurd. There's just not enough applications for it yet, but it's inevitable. My favorite tweet about it was, you never see a single young woman wearing one of these in public. It's only single young men. Of course, yeah. Vision Pro, it's going to be a prophylactic. Let's be honest. Somebody emailed us. This made me laugh. Speaking of the Vision Pro thing, Boomer Ben, a.k.a. the Grump of Grand Rapids, is becoming the get-off-my-lawn guy right before our eyes and ears, and I love it. Someone has to do it.

54:35Listen, this is middle age. The grump of Grand Rapids. This also made me laugh. Another email. Hey, guys, weighing in on the wide V-guy thing Ben mentioned when you guys were discussing the airplane seat survey. After Boeing figures out how to not have doors fly off the plane mid-flight, maybe their next order of business could be to work on the locations of where the seat supports are bolted to the floor. It's never right at the line between the two seats where the armrest is. So if I'm a big guy who likes the aisle seats, which I am, and the seat supports is eight inches into my space, I have to make the decision to put my foot a little bit into the middle seater zone or to squish myself with the leg cramp territory.

55:14And that's my take on middle seat etiquette. I'm totally fine conceding the armrest to the middle seater. Just give me back a few inches of foot space. That is true. Where those bolts are, because you have to have your feet somewhere to stop it from veering over. But I think he's also making an excuse for being a V guy. He's telling on himself for being a V guy. Yeah, the self-admitted V. I had been, as somebody who is now on the inside of coaching youth sports, I'm asking you to make a change from the inside. I know we live in different parts of the country, but it's got to be a grassroots effort.

55:44It's got to start somewhere. On Saturday morning, I took Kobe, who is six years old, to his baseball evaluation, I guess, for lack of a better word. There's 10 coaches. They all sit at a desk and they watch the boys take ground balls, pitch, and bat. The problem is the window for six-year-olds was they told you to get there at nine o 'clock. So we did. I got there at nine o 'clock and we didn't get seen until 1020. It was absolute madness. And you know what people get when they're in crowds and the lines are long and people start to get frustrated. and could you, this is, you know, people have ideas about how things should work.

56:29Especially with little kids. It was really quite foolish because by the time we got in and actually did the thing, the coaches, their eyes can't be everywhere. So the whole experience, once we got to the front of the line, it took two minutes. They watched him take ground balls. But by the time they're pitching and swinging, the coaches aren't even watching. It's the biggest waste of everybody's time. So this is the weirdest thing to me about youth sports is that they have them do tryouts from such an early age. because at that age, you're trying to tell your kid, do your best and put your best foot forward.

56:59And these kids, they don't know any better. They're sex. Who cares? So yeah, it used to be, listen, you're on this team because this is a neighborhood you lived in or this is the area or this is the age you signed up for. Not like the coaches are going to be evaluating the players and how fast they are and how it's just ridiculous to me that young kids have to go through, and obviously the pressure comes from the parents, but of trying out and trying to prove themselves as opposed to just playing and figured out there where you have some kids who are really bad and some are good on the same team.

57:30That's the thing about it that irks me is like, why are we putting pressure on these kids at such an early age? Because they're going to end up hating it. It's nonsense. You know the Midwit meme? Yes. That was the Super Bowl. So you had the Midwits saying Chiefs win. You had the Geniuses saying Chiefs win. And you had the people in the middle, the idiots like me, who said, but everybody knows the Chiefs are going to win. And yet the Niners are favored minus one and a half. Of course the Niners are going to win. So credit to me. I did win money on the game because I just, I had no conviction. So I teased everything.

58:02I teased like the Chiefs up to plus eight and the Niners up to plus 10. And so no harm, no foul. But on the last play of the game, on the last, in the last drive in the fourth quarter, when the Chiefs were driving, if instead of kicking a field goal to send them into overtime, had they scored a touchdown, I would have won the final in a large box pool. And so, spoiler alert, I didn't. But fun game. Okay. The box game for Super Bowl, and I'm sorry to Alex who runs this for our company, I told him this. It's the slot machines of Super Bowl games. It's not fun. Oh, it's fun. It's fun. It's not fun.

58:38I mean, it's a little bit of fun. There's got to be something more fun than the box game. It's not fun. It's like total random. Well, I'll tell you what's fun. I put 22 bets on the game. That was a hell of a time. I had a great time. Lots of fun. Okay. but my only analogy from this game is betting on the chiefs every year is like betting on the u.s stock market like some years it's not going to win but most years i've bet on the chiefs for five years in a row a couple of years i didn't win every other year i won like before the season i put a bet on a big bet on the chiefs winning the super bowl and most of the time it wins and this year it won again i really can't believe they won after that christmas game against the raiders it was just like all right they're just they're done they just don't have the weapons that was a Correction.

59:18Patrick Mahomes is the vanguard of the NFL. Don't bet against him. All right, recommendations. In the Super Bowl, there was ads for movies, which the worst part about it is you see a little teaser trailer ad, then it says go to whatever website to see the full trailer. That's crap. Give me the whole trailer on the, what? Like a 30 second just tease. Where do you watch the game? So I said to Robin, I said to Robin, were you by yourself? The kids, my wife. I said to Robin, can I just, can I please watch the Super Bowl this year by myself? I actually really want to watch the game. I just want to watch the game one time by myself.

59:55She goes, we have people coming over. So I was like, well, can I go upstairs? So you lost. So I didn't really get to see many of the commercials. You want to watch Super Bowl by yourself, but people call me grumpy, the grump of Grand Rapids. Huh? Well, I just want to focus on the game. You're the loner of Long Island. I just wanted to focus on the game that's fair so anyway we saw the preview for Twisters which is a sequel to Twister and my son he watched every my son is like addicted to action movies every day so what action movie are you watching today? have you shown him Twister yet? so we got Twister last night so good just an unassailably great movie plot and it has Bill Pullman wait is it Paxton?

1:00:41no it's Bill Paxton and Helen Hunt and Philip Seymour Hoffman Philip Seymour killed it. And Connor Roy from Succession is in it. And just what an excellent, and usually I'm - And Carrie Alwaz? Yes. Does that pronounce his name right? I don't think so. Usually I'm anti-remaking a classic like that, but that was such a 90s action movie. The new one I think looks great. So my son is all in and he watched Twister and he is, he's in and we watch a new action movie like once every other day in our house now because he's just a junkie. Have you shown him Planet of the Apes? Because that trailer looked incredibly good.

1:01:12No, he saw that, he saw that trailer and he said he's in too. And he also said he wants to watch A Quiet Place, which I think is a little too... That's not enough. No, not for that age. I finished all three seasons of Slow Horses in the past couple weeks. And it's one of those shows where I got done with it and I'm sad that it's over. Gary Oldman is like one of the better characters of the past 10 years or so, I think, in this show. And six episodes, like I told you. And it hits all the things you want from a spy. It's like the Russian sleeper cell, the rogue agent from M5, that MI5 that goes off on his own.

1:01:48And it's all these things that you want from a spy show, but then it's never what you expect it to be or never what it seems. Very, very good show on Apple. I think Apple, it's few and far between, but they have some high-quality shows occasionally. I just heard whining in a door slam. Oh, Snow Day today. All right, one more. I think I've mentioned this one before, but this is a Mike White movie. he's the White Lotus guy I think he is just the master of like internal class struggles he's so good at this so Brad's status is a Ben Stiller movie it's an Amazon one I think and I feel like certain movies hit you differently at different stages of your life so he's a middle aged guy who takes his son on some college visits and it's him, the whole thing is Ben Stiller is internal monologue thinking through he's upper middle class but he's not nearly as successful as his friends from college.

1:02:42And he's going through like, why didn't I become as successful as them or as rich as them or have as much money as them? And then it's like, well, if I did have that much money, my kids would hate me and I'd have to do it. And it's all this class struggle the whole time. It's just, it's as much of a good of like a mirror up against culture as it is a good movie, but I enjoyed it. When did it come out? Like 2017, it's an older one. It's called Brad's Status. Older one, oh my God. I know. I don't think I ever asked you about Burning. Did you finish that movie? I did not. It was a little slow for me.

1:03:19Really? Slow for you? Yeah, you said it was a little slow. I mean, it was slow for me, but you're a slow movie guy. Okay, so I'll keep trying, but it was kind of hard to watch. Wow, okay. I mean, you don't have to watch it. I thought you liked it. Anything from you? I don't think I watched anything this week. Okay. No crappy horror movies? Whenever we go through the email inbox, I can always tell which emails I can skip because I'll see like four demented movies listed at the bottom. Like, oh, this is a Michael email. I can skip this one. You know, our emailers have been, some emails come in and say, this email is for Ben.

1:04:01Yes. That's actually helpful. Or this is a Michael email. But I can always tell when there's a list of like demented words at the bottom, that's for you. What am I even watching? Really not much. I don't know. What happened last week? Oh, I did watch the fifth episode of True Detective last night. Bad, isn't it? It's just not great. True Detective season, what is it, season four? Four. Is the 2022 stock market. So the 2022 stock market hit a new all-time high the first day of trading and then crashed from there. So like the first episode was intriguing. and you're like, oh, this is going to be interesting.

1:04:37It's bad. It's a bad show. It's like, ugh. I don't know what happened. I feel like they, could they salvage it with a great ending? No, I don't think so. I'm not, I don't even care about the storyline anymore. Yeah, yeah, it's not great. I'm going to keep watching, but ugh, bad show. Well, there's one left. All right. Thank you, everybody, for listening. Enjoy the rest of your week. Animal Spirits at the compoundnews.com. We will see you next time.

1:05:10We'll see you next week.