The Consumer is Slowing Down (EP.363)

23:08Yeah, you can constantly look for something else. Nobody's ever been like, ah, bruh. That's the. You got me. Shit. I have no retort. Yeah. And my yeah buts just happen to be glasses out full. I'm sorry if that makes people angry. IBIT, which is the BlackRock crypto ETF. Look at this chart from Balchunas. Prior to this reaching$20 billion, It's the fastest ETF to ever get to$20 billion. The previous record is JEPI, a product that we've spoken about in the past. The JP Morgan covered call strategy. It took them 985 days to get to$20 billion in assets. I bet 137 days. Can I actually give a contrarian take here?

23:52I'm actually more impressed with the JEPI thing than the Bitcoin one here. Because it didn't have any fanfare whatsoever, and it's an income strategy. That's almost more impressive. But yes, these are both very impressive numbers. Fair point. Ben, we had the Bankless guys on the podcast. Bankless is one of the more popular crypto podcasts out there. We had David and Ryan on, I think we'll release that. Saturday, right? This Saturday or next Saturday. It's a Saturday release. Thoughts? I thought it was a really fun conversation. It was kind of like NBA Jam for podcast hosts, right? Because NBA Jam was two and two.

24:29So it was podcast host team versus podcast host team. It was good. And yeah, it was a lot of fun. And we asked them a bunch of questions about crypto. They asked us some questions about the stock market. And they said that they've been told they are the animal spirits is the bankless for stocks or something like that, right? Okay. Yeah, I thought it was a great conversation. It was a lot of fun. I think we're going to try to put that up in video form too. Okay. Okay, Lance Lambert from Resi Club has mortgage rate by generation. So like what, who has the... Oh, good one. This is interesting. And the young people are getting kind of screwed.

25:0680 % of millennials have a rate under 5%. So most millennials got in right before the dinner bell rang. Only 52 % of Gen Z borrowers can say the same thing. So Gen Z did not make it into the low rate environment. So they're going to learn about refinancing in the years ahead. they're going to have to. So he breaks it down by every, you know, less than 3%, 3 to 4, 4 to 5. And it looks like, you know, the majority of Gen Z is, you know, half of them are over 5%. I got to turn my AC up. Hold on a sec. Can you believe it's June already? I mean, got my AC pumping? You sweating? Last week, I said we have all this equity sitting in homes.

25:51And a lot of people came back to me and said, in our email inbox, and said, it's illiquid, and no one's going to tap that with rates so high. And even if rates fall, it's not going to be as big of a wave as you think. And that's fair. That's possible. But some people also sent me this thing saying, government-backed mortgage securitizer Freddie Mac is considering whether to broaden out his portfolio from first-time mortgages to become a purchaser of home equity loans, a move that could offer borrowers more favorable terms than those of private credit markets. So they're saying this new rule would allow them to, I don't exactly get how it works.

26:25They're going to like package these HELOCs up together and sell them as a bond or something. But it would allow them to use this interbank interest rate, which currently sits at like 5 % and make lower rate HELOC loans. Which makes sense to me. Like why should those rates be so high? Why should they be market-based like it's so high when you have such an asset with so much liquidity or equity sitting there? Shouldn't rates be lower on those? At all about this space? That's got to be like pretty risky debt, no? I don't know. If I'm buying a HELOC bond for 10 ,000 people who have a loan-to-value ratio of 50 % in their house or something, and they have a 3 % mortgage, I'm feeling pretty good about that.

27:14Wouldn't you?

27:18I mean, it depends on the rate. Yeah, the rate matters, but I don't know. I mean, the loan-to-value point is obviously important, but just the people that are, in general, tapping their house for equity. Now, listen, people use it for home improvements. People use it for all sorts of things, but they're using it because it's a better source of financing for them. I just think it's such a good piece of collateral that those rates should be lower. Like the spread you get between the 10-year and mortgage rates is ridiculous right now. I think the HELOC would be able to have that be a much narrower spread.

27:57I'm speaking from someone who wants to use their home equity. I don't want them just sitting there. I'm going to do something with it. And I know that it seems dumb because you still have to pay it back. It's not like you get it for free. But that's what I want. Give me my equity for free, please. Someone. Close your eyes, exhale, feel your body relax, and let go of whatever you're carrying today. Well, I'm letting go of the worry that I wouldn't get my new contacts in time for this class. I got them delivered free from 1-800-CONTACTS. Oh my gosh, they're so fast. And breathe. Oh, sorry. I almost couldn't breathe when I saw the discount they gave me on my first order.

28:34Oh, sorry. Namaste. Visit 1-800-CONTACTS.com today to save on your first order. 1-800-CONTACTS.

29:06are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings, and eligibility vary by state. St. Louis Fed did a post on the commercial real estate market. So lending by U.S. banks has grown substantially over the past decade. This is for commercial real estate, rising from about $1.2 trillion in the first quarter of 2014 to roughly$3 trillion at the end of 2023. A disproportionate share of this growth has occurred at regional and community banks. This is a good data point. Roughly two-thirds of all commercial real estate loans held by banks with under$100 billion in assets. That's interesting.

29:46So those are like local construction loans are giving out? And the thing is that roughly 30 % of outstanding debt is expected to mature between 2024 and 2026. Now, if you want to scare people on CNBC, you say we have a maturity debt wall coming up. Yes, we do. But there's some legitimate things to be worried about. They have a chart showing growth in net operating income. They break it down by apartments, industrials, office, and retail. And everything is growing. But office, not surprisingly, has had, I don't know, 10 straight quarters of lower net operating income than the previous year. And if you look at the next chart, the vacancy rates for commercial real estate properties, this is pretty ugly.

30:30The office space is at like 19 % highest. This chart goes back to 2005. So highest since. So these regional banks are going to, they don't want to have these buildings be written down, slashed in price. So they're going to have to restructure these loans. So this is going to be bad for regional banks. Well, the loans, the maturity is coming. So they have to refinance anyhow. The problem is not only got to refinance with higher debt, right? Money costs more than it used to, But the value of these properties has, in most cases, gone down. So it's a double whammy. As of the first quarter of 2024, the CoStar Valuated Commercial Property Price Index for the office sector was down 34 % from its peak.

31:14Now, that's not like, so the Bloomberg Reed Office Property Index, for example, fell 52%. So those are different things. The publicly traded rates are down 52%, whereas the commercial property price index, which I guess is just tracking the price, is down 34%. I guess the question is, is that enough? Obviously, don't know. We'll see. But I feel like whenever you talk about this sort of stuff, and I'm not hand-waving it away, but everybody knows. And if you look at the equity and the bonds, the prices have adjusted. I don't know if they've adjusted enough, but it's not going to catch anybody off guard.

31:50So we're going to start talking about private markets after this, about private credit and private equity. And I think one of the things people miss when they think about this stuff and predicting a calamity, even when things are bad, like the private real estate market, in private markets, it's way harder for there to be a panic. So it's rarely ever a car crash scenario. Yeah, sites can negotiate. Yeah, where it happens immediately. They kick the can. With illiquid assets, if it was public, people would have been freaking out about this stuff and it would have been down 60%, 70%. But because it's private, you don't get those markdowns.

32:21So it just happens. It's more death by 1 ,000 cuts than a car crash situation. Yeah. All right. So this is along the same vein here. This article was from January 2020, before the pandemic. And for some reason, it resurfaced recently. Well, not for some reason. We'll get into why. This is from Greg Oberynchain and Dan Rasmussen from Verdad. The title is, High Yield Was Oxy, Private Credit Is Fentanyl. Now, again, January 2020, I think we've spoken a bunch about private credit, but for people who are not in the know, I think these first few paragraphs gives a really good introduction as to what it is.

32:59So forgive me for a second. I'm just going to read the first three paragraphs. Private equity assets have increased sevenfold since 2002, with the annual average deal activity now averaging well over$500 billion per year. The average leveraged buyout is 65 % debt financed, creating a massive increase in demand for corporate debt financing. Yet just as private equity fueled a massive increase in demand for corporate debt, banks sharply limited their exposure to the riskier parts of the corporate credit market. Not only have the banks found this type of lending to be unprofitable, but government regulators were warning that it posed a systemic risk to the economy.

33:32The rise of private equity and limits to banks' lending created a gaping hole in the market. Private credit funds have stepped in to fill the gap. This hot asset class grew from$37 billion in dry powder in 2004 to$109 billion in 2010 to a whopping$261 billion in 2019. There are currently 436 private credit funds raising money, up from 261 only five years ago. The majority of this capital is allocated to private credit funds specializing in direct lending and mezzanine debt, which focus almost exclusively on lending to private equity buyouts. Now, I wish I updated the numbers for you all from what it looks like when they wrote it to today, but I'm guessing it's doubled since then.

34:12It's bigger. It's a lot bigger. Right. It's certainly ramped up since then. And so the FT had an article over the weekend talking about private markets, how much cash has come in, how much has been distributed. And they got a quote from the global head of advisory, JP Morgan, who said, the lower rate of distributions. So the article was saying that private equity, I think for eight straight years or something like that has called in more money than it's distributed. And even when you consider like, obviously there's a lag, you don't take the money and give it back the same year. It's still pretty bad.

34:45So the lower rate of distributions from private equity, private debt and venture funds is having a knock-on effect, leading some allocators to pause on new investments into illiquid funds and reduce new investments in more liquid hedge funds. So now here's Robin Wiggles. Because their allocations are topped out now if you're an endowment fund or a pension or whatever? So they're relying on cash coming back to fund all sorts of other projects. Here's Robin Wigglesworth of the FTA. Private capital firms have taken more money in from investors than they've distributed back to them in gains for six straight years for a total gap of$1.56 trillion over that period.

35:16And this isn't just about the recent glut of capital raise, lag returns, and private equity blockages either. Even if you include the big returns of 2013 to 2017, private capital funds have now called in $821 billion more than they've returned over the 14 years that Prequin's data series stretches over. So we had ChartKids turn this table into a chart. And yeah, it doesn't look great. So you not only had a huge influx into private capital because rates were so low, then the IPO window has kind of closed for a while. And you're right. And so all these places topped off and now they're not getting as much money back as they would have assumed.

35:59The point that you just made a second ago about if this was public, you would have seen panic probably a year or two ago. Yes. In the article by the guys at Verdad, they made the point that a lot of these private funds will make the case that their default rate is so much lower than public markets. but it's kind of bullshit because there's tons of restructurings where the original terms of the deal are not met, and they don't consider that a default. Right. It seems like it should be a default. So certainly some shenanigans. And the reason why we're talking about this today is because a private credit firm called Ninepoint Partners has determined, this from Bloomberg, that the best pass forward to preserve liquidity and balance the long-term goals of these three affected funds is to redirect future distributions into additional units rather than cash distributions.

36:54Yikes. Basically, they're not making distributions. That's not good, especially when the pitch is either monthly or quarterly distributions. That's like the whole thing. So my new rule of thumb is if the fund has a number in it, it's probably going to be a problem, right? Three arrows capital, nine point. That's just a new rule of thumb of mine. That's just two examples. We got at least one more. Small sample size. Now, in fairness, so the fund's largest exposure to the sustainability sector comprising about 45 % with the energy sector making up 31%. So it seems like this is perhaps not indicative of the entire industry.

37:30In fact, I would say it's probably certainly not. They've got some things that they're working through. But the question is, are we going to start to see more of these stories over the years? And the weird thing is, you're going to see these individual things maybe blow up or have issues. But the problem for the investors is you're getting back to the car crash analogy. It takes like 10 to 12 years to know if your private equity fund actually worked or not. And so I was the one who was kind of pounding the table six or seven years ago saying these pension funds are going head over heels into private equities, not going to end well.

38:03Well, not private credit. Private credit's different. Yes, private credit is different. But I'm just talking about private as a whole. any of this liquid stuff, if it's a private equity or venture fund, it takes so long to understand if the fund is working out or not that since you don't have those markdowns immediately in a crash situation, a lot of times the investors themselves have no idea whether what they're investing in is doing well or not. Especially if those distributions are slowing, then they have no... Right. So I've made the point, just thinking through this, like even if there is some stress, you have all of this restructuring, you have so much dry powder out there, just desperate.

38:37There are funds that are already starting to snap up these deals before there is even real distress. So I've made the case that maybe the downside is probably higher than some of the real naysayers think it is. On the other hand, the knock-on effect, like the liquidity, the dry powder that I'm describing, who knows if it's really going to be excited to deploy when there is actually stress, right? A lot of the liquidity disappears when people need it. Is the easiest prediction to make that private credit is going to have some really bad events during the next recession? Well, that's, but yes, of course.

39:08Yes, of course, that's what people are going to say. Now, the other point that I, that I had maybe just refuted is that, well, what if there's already money lining up? I feel like, I feel like this is the princess bride. You don't never fight a land of war in Asia. To step in to buy at a discount or yeah, there's going to be private credit fund of funds that are saying we're buying secondary at a discount or whatever. I could see that. All right. Let's do a survey. One more survey. We'll get this off our chest for about surveys are, are bullshit. nearly 80 % of Americans say fast food is now a luxury because it's become so expensive.

39:41This is from LendingTree. The funny thing is, is they say almost 80 % say it's a luxury, but three in four Americans typically eat fast food at least once a week. 67 % of Americans agree fast food should be cheaper than eating at home. 75 % say this isn't the case. Furthermore, nearly half of people say fast food restaurants cost similarly to their local sit-down restaurants, while 22 % say fast food is more expensive. When asked about their go-to for an easy and expensive meal, 56 % site making food at home. This is such nonsense. Give me a break. Yes, that's an outrage click. This was interesting to me.

40:14There was a story about Ramit Sethi in Politico asking about his views on inflation. And he says, I have a rule which is never trust someone's self-report about grocery costs. And I know this because I've spoken to thousands, actually tens of thousands of people, and they often say inflation is crazy. It's impossible to afford groceries anymore. And I'll say, is that right? And they'll say, well, I'm paying triple what I paid three years ago. And I say, really? And he says, as we dig into it, of course, people don't track how much they actually spend. Almost nobody compares in shops at grocery stores.

40:40And this isn't to like poo-poo the inflation thing, but I totally agree with him. How many people do you know that actually budget line item stuff to know what they spend on certain categories? Because people's habits have changed over time. And I don't really think that many people were checking to understand three or four years ago how much they're actually paying that know what the differences are. Yeah, no. I totally, how many people do you know that like actually have a budget? 5 % of people, 10 % of people, maybe. You know, that should be your new opening question. Instead of, can you believe how fast the time has gone?

41:13Say, hey, you have a budget? No, why do you ask? No one will, everyone have small talk will be. That's perfect. Yeah. I'm a podcaster. Yeah, no, this is nonsense. There was actually a really, really good podcast with Joe and Tracy at OddLots about how corporations price their products. And they spoke a lot about the fast food industry. It was really, really fascinating. Highly recommend. All right. Another one from the St. Louis Fed. Man, they're on fire. I guess so. They have a chart, a post, assets and debt across generation. So they stopped it in 2019, they said, to avoid the pandemic period, which was characterized by a lot of atypical financial conditions that may not reflect long-term trends or underlying economic fundamentals.

41:56Okay, whatever. So they showed - A lot of those assets would be much higher, obviously. Yeah. So they show the average value of key household assets held at age 30. They look at baby boomers, Gen X, and millennials. And in last place, believe it or not, was baby boomers. 135K, of course, it's all inflation adjusted. Then next, coming up the rear, millennials, 190K. Gen X, 200K, 201. Generation. Did all right. Not bad. Now, okay, fine. What was the debt? Baby boomers only had$46 ,000 worth of debt. Next Gen X, next millennials. And I guess education was a key component to this, of course. So was mortgages.

42:46So then netting it all out, what was the net worth? At age 30. Baby boomers, $89K. Millennials,$100K. Gen X,$114K. So all this complaining that people do about Gen X and, I mean, baby boomers have it's not fair and blah, blah, blah. Well, the data says otherwise. That's surprising because you think about how many more young people these days are going to school a lot longer, to college or to post-grad, whatever, that you would have assumed just by age 30 that baby boomers would have been further ahead. This is surprising. I guess let's compare. Let's see what happens at 50. Well, at 50, we're going to be so much richer because we're going to have all their assets.

43:28That's true. I think there is something to be said for the fact that the barriers to entry are so much lower in the stock market now, too, for young people. Technology just makes it easier than ever to invest. All right, here's another one. Mike Zaccardi. Let's update it from 2019 on. This is from Ed Yardeni, Ed Yardeni Research. Millennials' net worth was$5 trillion in early 2020,$13.5 trillion today. I mean, millennials are going to be the boomer generation. The young generations are going to hate millennials just as much as our generation hates the boomers. like complaints all this time. Yes, it's going to happen.

44:01Millennials will be the richest generation. Get ready for it. It's going to be a while, but it's going to happen. All right. So here's what's happening. According to Bloomer, key engines of U.S. consumer spending are losing steam all at once. We just talked about consumers choosing. Matt Klein at the overshoot, something similar is consumer spending slowing. So this is a bit wonky, but the Federal Reserve looks at PCE. That's like their preferred measure of inflation. And people use it as an offhanded way to look at consumer spending. That's what the personal consumption expenditures is. So we're going to try and make this some plain English stuff, but let's just go to Matt first.

44:42So he says the composition of this spending, again, we're talking about PCE, has been shifting over the past year or so with an increasingly large growth contribution coming from categories where spending is imputed. So instead of based on actual transactions and observed prices, you strip that out and nominal spending seems to have been slowing. So what is he talking about here? Again, here's Matt. PCE is often generalized as quote consumer spending, but that is not quite the same as actual out-of-pocket spending by households. This is usually an improvement. PCE includes all spending on healthcare, including spending covered by insurance, which would not be captured properly by measureers that only look at direct expenses.

45:23PC also includes net spending by nonprofits on behalf of households. So it's important. It's spending that's done on behalf of consumers, but it's not necessarily things that you're paying out of pocket. So it's important to strip that out. So when you do that, the market prices, the actual out-of-pocket spending, it's slowing down. So potentially good for inflation, bad for the economy? Well, you would think. But then he says inflation, so you would think, right? But the problem is inflation is not falling as much as you might think, given the moderated spending. He has another chart that shows the title of this fake spending question mark.

46:01He says, while aggregate consumer spending has been growing around 6 % a year since mid-2022, much of the growth since mid-2023 has come from imputed categories rather than actual cash transactions. So, you know, the narrative might start to shift, and it might start to shift pretty quickly. So now people are going to be calling for cuts then, right? Yeah. It does seem to be like the handoff going from— But the thing—but here's the thing. What if consumer spending is slowing and inflation is not catching down, so consumer spending is slowing, but rate cuts are still on pause? That doesn't sound like a great setup for the economy or the stock market.

46:45No, but eventually you'd think inflation would have to catch up, though. But, well, yeah, you would. And interestingly, the two-year has made a really big move in the last four sessions. This doesn't sound big, but it's a decent size on the chart, from 5 % down to 42%. Yeah, that's pretty tiny. I feel like we've been in a range, though, for a while from yields, correct? Yeah. I mean, whatever, the T-bills are still all above 5%. from 12 months down, which is kind of remarkable. But you know how quickly narrative shift. So be prepared, potentially. OK. So again, if you're a glass-to-saf full person, you're going to say, yay, this is good for inflation, potentially.

47:25And if you're a glass-to-saf empty person, you're going to say, ah, the economy's slowing. Yeah. Right? And both people can. Choose your fighter. I still think it's bizarre that we're potentially going to see Fed rate cuts with stocks at all-time highs. That seems wild to me. I'm just so used to it happening in the midst of a panic situation. Well, but they're not pricing any more rate cuts for the rest of the year. You don't know where stocks are going to be when they finally do start to cut. What if they're 20 % lower? Which is, you know, historically. Right. Although, what do we say in history?

47:54The stock market could get ahead of them. Yeah, that's fair. All right, Ben. Recommendations. What do you got? All right. Two thumbs up on Godzilla minus one from my son, George. Dude, it's so good. Did you watch it? I did. I thought it was just okay. I just... I mean, what do you expect? It's a Godzilla movie, first of all. Second of all, even stipulating that it's a Godzilla movie, it was f***ing good. The action was phenomenal. Godzilla actually looked real in the beginning. The story was great. What more do you want? What more do you want? It's just the Godzilla. I'm just not a big fan of those kind of movies.

48:33Do you want a coming of age? When was Godzilla born? Did he have any friends? It's like, what did they do over the summer? No, so again, it was, the thing is it felt like a throwback movie. The way they made it felt like it was a movie from like another time almost, which I thought was really interesting and cool. Anyway, credit to Netflix. They just dropped it. They're like, oh, we have Godzilla minus one now. Yeah, because I couldn't find it anywhere else either. Yeah, so good. My son, especially, he just, he couldn't get over the fact, how does Godzilla turn himself into a nuke? Like, so that's what happened.

49:07You know, it's funny. I showed Kobe one scene, the scene in the rain, where the guy's in the airplane and he's going to shoot him, but then he doesn't. So that scene where Godzilla comes out, it was so sick. So I'm showing it to Kobe. He goes, that's not the real Godzilla. That's not Godzilla. Like the fake Santa Claus? I'm really, I've been waiting for you to tell me that it would have been better if I saw it in the theater. I mean, well, it goes without saying. And not to brag, I saw it in the theater before it was cool. I was like an opening night guy, I think. Okay, people did like that one.

49:37All right. next one, Dark Matter on Apple TV Plus apparently I'm the only one who watches shows on Apple but this was we're getting a lot of recs for that I'm three episodes in so this was a book that I read I probably gave the book as a recommendation on the show because someone emailed us and said Ben you need to read these the guy's name is Blake Crouch I believe he writes a bunch of sci-fi novels and this is his best book that I read and it's mind bending and one of the great things I love about seeing a book turned into a movie or TV show is when your vision of the book in your head matches what they put on screen and it matches it totally.

50:15So I'm like, oh, this is what I was picturing. There was something very satisfying about it. That's a good point. And it's Joel Edgerton and it's Jennifer Connelly. And it's, it's this, it's this kind of time travel thing between different paths. Like what if you made this decision instead of that decision, but each of you lives this separate life between the decisions. And what if you could hop between those lines? It's very existential and sci-fi. It's, it's, and I'm curious to see where they take it because the end of the book got really, really crazy. But I, I'm giving that two thumbs up. That's a very good one.

50:50So Logan got a Darth Vader toy where you press something and Darth Vader talks. So I guess Logan is learning about the dark side because he asked when did Darth Vader go to the dark side. Yeah. And so I showed him. So I said, well, let's go to the canon. So we watched Phantom Menace, which I know this is not breaking news, but really, really unbelievably bad.

51:20And George Lucas directed it. I don't even understand. How did that even happen? Well, he did all the prequels, didn't he? Yeah. I can't believe, can't believe a bad it was. We finished Attack of the Clones this morning as we were eating waffles. Much better. I know you're not a Star Wars guy, but Attack of the Clones was fun. It was watchable. Now, I forget, what's the guy's name that played Anakin? Just the worst actor of? Hayden Christensen, right? Oh, stunningly bad, stunningly bad actor. But Attack of the Clones, fun movie. That's my hat take about the original Star Wars. Besides Harrison Ford, they're all really bad actors.

51:57yeah yeah yeah that's fair Mark Hamill is a he's not great yeah he's really bad that's how good the movie is though that the movie worked despite him alright I watched The Holdovers I thought you'd seen it before no I never saw it never saw it okay and well remind me what you thought of it you loved it right I really liked it I thought Paul Giamatti should have won an Oscar if Oppenheimer didn't exist okay what do you think I thought of it you probably got bored. Too slow. Yeah. Too long. Yeah. Okay. Clearly a good film. Well done. Well written. Well acted. I thought the guy who plays the teenage boy with the curly hair.

52:39He was good. I thought he was amazing. Yeah. He was good. It's a Ben movie. Yeah. It's a Ben movie. Listen, the first 45 minutes I was like intrigued. I was like, all right, where is this going? Then I, you know, just didn't really go anywhere. I lost interest. I lost interest. But I watched it. I thought it was a good ending too, though. Yeah, it was good. I thought there was a payoff. Okay. Yeah. But it's a good movie. That's just not for me. All right. I don't know why I press play on this one because I'm not, as much as I love horror, I don't necessarily love the Antichrist genre. I thought The Exorcist is wildly overrated.

53:11Even you have a line in the sand, apparently. Yeah, listen, I'm like the consumer. I'm choosing between my horror movies. But I watched The First Omen, which is on Hulu slash Disney. By the way, how's your Hulu-Disney integration going? I don't know they'll they'll cut all the streaming services kind of run together for me at this point but like when when you open Disney sometimes it looks like it's a Disney Hulu app and other times it doesn't it's not it's weird it's disappointing there's certainly more options now yeah so anyhow so I saw the first Omen streaming on Disney Hulu so I said check it out nothing else remind me how old this movie is no the first Omen is new the first Omen came out in 2024 the original Omen the one with Damien I never saw that 1976.

53:55But the first Omen, which is a prequel to the one in 1976, I got to say, pretty good movie. Okay. Pretty good movie. We had a friend in college who his nickname was Damien. I feel like that movie just, hey, kind of looked, but I feel like that name just completely went away after that movie, correct? Like you can't name your son the Antigrace anymore. No, no. So, but But anyway, but the original Omen is also on Disney. So I am going to watch it. I'll report back next week. Okay. You and I are going to Charleston. And I'm excited to watch maybe, what's that movie that you recommend? The Shack Shed?

54:32Shed Shack? Shake Shack. Shake, no. The movie is called Shake Shack? No. Snack Shack? Snack Shack. That's it. Is that going to be on the airplane, you think? What do you think? That's possible. I guess it could be. It's a newish movie, so it just came out. So I don't know. I think you'll like that better than holdovers. How's that? Okay. That's the most you can expect. All right. All right. We good? Animal Spirits at the compoundnews.com. See you next time.