The Tariff Tantrum (EP.403)

23:34This is why the economic data is absolutely mind-boggling to me. My situation and those around me does not inspire confidence whatsoever, but the data tells me that I'm absolutely wrong. My takeaway is that companies don't want to take on new hires or cutting the newest hires and the people who do have some form of experience are okay taking jobs they are overqualified for. Maybe this is just a product of where I live and not a broader theme. Maybe it's short-term uncertainty. I just see my situation and those around me and it gives reason to worry. So I think this is a really good take on how the labor market has evolved because even when people thought there was going to be a slowdown in 2022, the labor market was so hot coming out of the pandemic that companies did not want to fire people because it was so hard to hire them in the first place.

24:15Because people, it was, if you change jobs, you made more money. I continue to believe that was the hottest labor market we will ever see in our lifetime. Yeah. I don't see how it's ever equaled. And if you change jobs, you got like a 20 % or 15 % raise or whatever it was. The wage growth for changing jobs was insane. And so even though companies kept saying, we think a recession is coming, they wouldn't lay people off because they were worried, what if we have to just hire them back? And now the labor market dynamic has shifted where the labor is not in control anymore and the company is back in control.

24:44And I think that's probably why you're seeing this. And even though this is anecdotal, I'm sure that there's a lot of other anecdotes that are just like this. Correct. So the question is like, what do you do with this? What does it mean? How tied is the economy and this person's experience to the stock market? Right. That's a big question. Main Street versus Wall Street. A couple of weeks, months ago, you were talking about consumer spending and you were like, I just don't like what slows this down. I just don't see people spend changing their spending. Well, here's what slows it down. There was a potential recession.

25:13So this chart is from the conference board via the Washington post. Uh, the percentage of consumers who believe there will be fewer jobs in six months is at the highest level since 2013. And this is definitely going to change people's spending habits. There is a slowdown in the economy. The labor market is cooling off. So So again, don't misunderstand. I am not naive to the risks that the economy is facing. I guess through the lens of the stock market, I'm only saying that 15%, whatever we end up getting, listen, I don't want a 30 % decline. It's not the end of the world. That's through the lens of the stock market, through the lens of the economy.

25:52I'm viewing this as a slowdown more than a recession. So NFIB, small business optimism, falls to a four-month low. Here's a quote from Sam Rowe. Uncertainty is high and rising on Main Street, and for many reasons, how future developments are resolved will shape the economy's future. Confidence that the economy will continue to grow is fading. Chamath tweeted, and I really don't like to mention individual names in a negative tone, but I can't help it with this one. He said, long Main Street, short Wall Street, the spread trade of our lifetime has started. And I just don't know what he's talking about.

26:27I mean, I think I know what he's doing. I think he thinks we're all really stupid. That makes no sense, though, in a slowing labor market. It makes no sense. So, okay. How's this for long Main Street, short Wall Street? Americans fall behind on car payments. Their percentage of borrowers at least 60 days late on their car payment is at the highest record, highest on record. This is the subprime 60-plus delinquency index. People got to start buying sedans. We got— Wait, wait. Before we miss it, I want to go back to the person who wrote in that email. Okay. I'm going to offer them some personal advice.

26:59They got an accounting degree, but they're going for the CFA. If you want to get a job, get your CPA. You will get a job in the accounting field. Yeah. Great advice. There is a lack of accountants right now. Maybe you don't want to do that with your life, but if you really just want a job, become a CPA. Honestly, that's what my dad told me when I couldn't find a job out of college, and I basically told him to screw off because I wasn't going to be a CPA. All right. So getting back to stress in the market. So last night, Delta adjusted their outlook for the first quarter. In the securities filing, the outlook has been impacted by the recent reduction in consumer and corporate confidence caused by increased macro uncertainty, driving softness in domestic demand.

27:40The stock was down 50 % in the after hours. The market just opened. It's only down 5%. So it's down 30 % from the highs. Yeah, but here's a quote that I highlighted. So Ed Bastian was on CNBC. He's the CEO of Delta. and Phil LeBeau said, do you get the feeling that we potentially are heading towards a recession? And he said, I don't feel it. As you just said, we're growing 4%, not 8%. If it was a recession, we'd be down 10%, right? So again, things are slowing down and the market is going to react to that very quickly as it already has and is. But there's a big difference between growing 4 % to 8 % and contracting.

28:21Right. And it also could mean there's going to be places in the economy when we have normalization like this or a slowdown that are going to feel like they're in a recession, even if the whole economy itself isn't technically in one. Right. And I still do think that housing could be the savior here. If rates plunge very quickly and mortgage rates fall, I think housing could be the shock absorber. Ben, one thing that we didn't talk about, which I guess I keep dropping hints, like don't freak out. Don't do something that you're going to regret. If you are really nervous now and you're afraid the market's going to go lower, which very well may, and then you're going to get even more together so you go even lower, which it may, and you're having those feelings of, I just want to feel better.

29:06I want to feel safe. I want to go to cash. Please don't. this again, please don't. This is not a comment on where the market is going. The market may go lower. It may go higher. It may not go lower. But the problem with getting out, and we've said this a million times, but it always bears repeating a correction. It's so easy to sell, right? It provides instant relief. But getting back in is so hard because either one or two things is going to happen. Either the market is going to go lower, confirming your suspicions that the market is going to go lower and you're going to feel great that you got out.

29:41Ah, I avoided 4 % downside. I avoided 10 % downside, right? It's going to reinforce that you were right. And you're going to wait for it to go lower or you're going to wait for the dust to settle, LOL, before you get back in. That's one scenario. And then you're not going to get back in lower, let's be honest. Or worse, I guess if I don't know if this is worse or better, you sell near the bottom, at the bottom, whatever, market goes higher. Are you going to get back in? The market doesn't bottom on good news. It's not like the good news is going to come and then you're going to get the all, okay, great.

30:12The market doesn't wait for you. The market bottoms on bad news, not good news. It doesn't let you back in. So please, if you have to, because you're legitimately having trouble sleeping at night, fine. You're taking too much risk and dial it back. But do not go to cash. Do not. Right. If a 10 % correction scares you that bad and you're 90 % in equities, Yeah, you would take some risk. Dial it back to 80 or 70. But don't go all in or all out. That is just cash becomes so seductive, to your point, that it's just this gateway drug to constant market timing. And it's just, it's a bad, like over-rebalancing.

30:49I don't even mind over-rebalancing occasionally, even though you could make a, you probably should be leaning into the payment stocks are falling, but I'm okay with that as long as you're not just going to the extremes of all in or all out. That's the bad, that's the bad part. Joe Weisenthal tweeted, virtually every comment in today's ISM manufacturing report is about uncertainty or hesitancy in doing business on account of tariffs. And he highlighted a bunch of them. Do you think a lot of this, because it feels like a lot of the 2022 recession stuff for CEOs, it's not like they were necessarily predicting recessions, although some of them certainly were.

31:18It's kind of like they were saying, throw us a bone here, help us out, right? We don't want to go into recession. We don't want to lay people off. And I think that's what a lot of these surveys now and the CEOs coming out saying, the slowdown is coming. And they're signaling to politicians like, hey, if you don't want this thing to turn into a recession, do something, please. That's kind of what it feels like. I know you're really good at short corporate America. How much? Not for long. Like, how much evidence do you need that they're really good at figuring it out and navigating challenges? Do you know what I really like, though, about the stock market?

31:50And I feel like the stock market is the least political place on earth now. Because everywhere else you go, there's on social media and on the news, there's spin or there's platitudes and there's lies and you can, whatever, there's confirmation bias, but the market does not care about politics or messaging or spin. If the market doesn't like your policies or what you're saying, it's not going to give you the benefit of the doubt. The market's going to react first and then ask questions later. It's such a great point. It's just pure fear and greed. And that's, some of that obviously is politics like bleeding into it, but you're 100 % right.

32:26You can't lie to the stock market. Right. You can't say this is a great policy. Just wait, the stock market? No. Show us first. How's this for a spin? I saw somebody tweet this. Yeah, the Dow is plunging. This is happening because we have a president with the balls to undo a globalist economic agenda that's decimated American wages and quality of life. This is the pain that comes from real change. It's much easier to just pass the buck. Sure. Guess what? The stock market doesn't care about your feelings. We do have to add some context to GDP now from last week. We said GDP now fell off a cliff.

32:59It looked like the economy is really, really slowing. Matthew Klein wrote a really good piece on this thing on the overshoot. And honestly, the funny thing about where we are in the information age today is 30 years ago, we never would have had GDP now tell us GDP is going to slow. But we also wouldn't have had the Substack, really smart econ guy who knows everything about how it's constructed. How did he figure this out? So he says, while a lot could happen between now and the end of March, I would be extremely extremely surprised if the current GDP now correction for 2025 Q1 turns out to be accurate by the time the official growth numbers are published at the end of April.

33:32And he said, basically, Americans imported$28.7 billion worth of gold bars in January. That is up from a monthly average of less than$1 billion. And so raw gold imports are also up. So it's saying this big import of gold, which I don't really understand why there was all this, maybe just because gold's at an all-time high. There was this massive importing of gold bars. And I don't even know what that means, but he figured it out that this dynamic changed the import-export balance that throws off the calculation of GDP now. I guess even Josh said the GDP now guy who created it said, yeah, this was a problem.

34:07So that's going to be reversed. So the economy looked like it was falling off of a cliff from that. And technically it's not really. So thank you to the wonks. I actually put the, so I get the overshoot into my email inbox because it's a Substack. And then they have the Gemini thing for AI. And it says, would you like us to summarize this email? I said, sure. And they say, Klein suggests the model misses subtracting gold imports, leading to an overstated goods trade deficit and a projected economic downturn. Good job, Gemini. I don't, the thing is, I don't have any loyalty to any of these AI programs or models.

34:41And I feel like people keep, well, this is the best one and that's the best one. Aren't they all kind of the same? No. You don't think so? No, I don't think so. I've noticed Gemini kind of stinks. Look how… It gives you one sentence. Well, that's what it said. It was a summary. Yeah, but it's not… No, so there was another one, but I just put that one… I don't know. I just… What are you, just partial to ChatGPT? I like ChatGPT. Okay. I probably use that one the most, but I don't… Anyway. I have to be honest. I haven't even tried the others. But I've used Gemini because it's in my Google, and ChatGPT is where I started.

35:12Okay. So, we've talked a lot over the years about the huge inheritance money that's coming. I've heard estimates anywhere from like$50 trillion or$100 trillion in the next 20 to 30 years. I hate to rate on parades, but it's not going to really happen for a lot of people until they're way older. So this is from J.P. Morgan Guide to Retirements, which just came out the other day. It came out this week. They looked at today if you're 65, the probability of living to a specific age or beyond. And they say if you're a nonsmoker in excellent health, there is a 43 % chance at least one, if you're a married couple, at least one of you is going to live to 95.

35:4873 % chance someone's going to live till 90. And even if you're not in excellent health, because obviously not everyone is, there's almost a 20 % chance someone's going to live to 95. 44 % chance one of them is going to live to 90. The millennials who are waiting on their parents to die to give them their assets, which we've talked about, there's some people who, that's their retirement plan in the back of their head, right? I hope their parents live forever. but you're not you're not going to receive the money when you really need it now maybe some will need it if they don't save for retirement but you're going to get it when you're like 60 65 yeah yeah it's not like you're going in yes and so maybe that's why we need more but i also i also do think that the the wealth transfer will occur during the lifetime of these people you know a lot of it was and yeah some of it also these these millennials that are waiting for their parents to die.

36:40They're going to get everything paid for. Probably. Right? Family vacations and down payments. All right. So we've talked a lot about the economic uncertainty and the short-term slowdown. And I feel like everything that we're talking about right now is definitely short-term in nature. It's not necessarily like this is for sure going to change the long-term. Well, that's the thing. Like if we zoom out, how many events have there been over the last 15 years like this? Not exactly like this, but events that scare the market and we laugh about it a year later, right? Maybe this is different. Maybe this tanks the economy and changes the trajectory of the AI explosion.

37:13And I just don't think it's going to. And I could be wrong, obviously. So as Rick Klein at the New York Times had this podcast, and he transcribes it too, and he said, there's so much else going on in the world right now to cover. I do think there's a good chance that when we look back at this era of human history, AI will have been the thing that matters. And so he says, for the last couple of months, I've had this strange experience. Person after person from artificial intelligence labs, from government has been coming to me saying, it's really about to happen. we're going to get artificial general intelligence.

37:40And he kind of goes through what this all means for the labor market. And again, it's all speculation, but I do wonder, I still think AI is going to be a thing. So if we have a really bad downturn this decade, it's probably going to be because AI doesn't come through like people think it's going to. I think it might be the opposite. I think maybe, what if like, what if we have the downturn because AI is so effective that it's like really impacting the labor market and putting people out of work? Well, that would be the crazy thing is if we get a recession and people, are lose jobs and then AI hits big time.

38:12And then a lot of these people don't get hired back. Right, exactly. That's the nightmare scenario. Well, that's the - And by the way, that scenario is not like that hard to imagine either. No, not really that corporations would use the excuse of laying people off and just filling their positions with AI. But I think if we get a big bust or a big boom the rest of this decade, AI is the thing. Yeah, I agree. I agree. All right. So we got the crypto reserve. Let me read a tweet from the crypto czar, David Sachs. Just a few minutes ago, President Trump signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

38:52The reserve will be capitalized with Bitcoin owned by the federal government that was forfeited as part of criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings. This means it will not cost taxpayers a dime. It is estimated that the US government owns about 200 ,000 Bitcoin. However, there has never been a complete audit. The executive order directs a full accounting of the federal government's digital asset holdings. The U.S. will not sell any Bitcoin deposit into the reserve. It will be kept as a store of value. The reserve is like a digital Fort Knox for the cryptocurrency often called digital gold.

39:18Premature sales of Bitcoin have already cost U.S. taxpayers over$17 billion in lost value. Now the federal government will have a strategy to maximize the value of its holdings. The secretaries of treasury and commerce are authorized to develop budget neutral strategies for acquiring additional Bitcoin, provided that these strategies have no incremental costs on American taxpayers. In addition, the executive order establishes a U.S. digital asset stockpile consisting of digital assets other than Bitcoin forfeited in criminal or civil proceedings. The government will not acquire additional assets for the stockpile beyond those obtained through forfeiture proceedings.

39:51The purpose of the stockpile is responsible stewardship of the government's digital assets on the Treasury to Treasury Department. All caps, promises made, promises kept. Are you fucking kidding me? This is the biggest nothing burger ever. They didn't do anything. We got mad last week about them using taxpayer funds to buy. So at least they're not doing that. Listen, I own a lot of Bitcoin. I loved seeing it dump on this news. This is such bullshit. Promises made, promises kept. You didn't do anything. You're keeping the Bitcoin that you have. Now, listen, I'm not like completely minimizing it.

40:29I understand like this, the symbolic important nature of like establishing a crypto reserve, but it's, what a hilarious spin. Yes. So Cliff Asnis actually wrote a piece. Taking a victory lap for not selling the Bitcoin that we forfeited, that we got from Silk Road and wherever else we got it from. Yeah. Yeah, they're just not selling it. So Cliff Asnis, not a big fan of crypto usually. He's a quant guy. He says the new crypto Fort Knox is as dumb as it sounds. And he wrote a whole piece on this. And he this is, I think, the best point of like why we shouldn't have been buying. And again, I'm glad that we didn't just buy.

41:07He said, finally, and perhaps most obviously, even if crypto is a viable long term competitor to the US dollar, why on earth would we be promoting this direct competitor to ours being to our being the world's reserve currency, something that conveys upon the United States exorbitant privilege? Like we shouldn't be trying to compete with the dollar. It's one of the biggest benefits and advantages that we have over the rest of the world. I don't understand how proponents of Bitcoin as alternative to the dollar is not anti-America. Am I missing something? Why would you want anything to compete with the dollar other than because you want to get rich personally?

41:44Well, that's it. It's the bad thing. I mean, that's it. Give me a break. There's no spin zone in which competition for the dollar benefits our country. Is there? Yeah, and we've seen that the reason that stable coins work so well is because it gives people in other countries access to the dollar. Right? That's why stable coins are so popular. Again, I'm not anti-crypto. I just don't see it that way. By the way, I dipped a toe. I put some really low limit orders in when crypto started crashing. Did they get filled? Some of them got filled. One of them almost last night, I put it in for like 77.

42:23And I got close. But yeah, because I was sitting on a big cash pile. Mr. Market Timer guy here. And we say don't do. This is my brokerage account. I'm okay market timing in crypto. Okay? Okay, that's fair enough. All right. Rocket is buying Redfin. What is your take on this? Makes sense to me. TechCrunch reports that the new combined entity essentially pulls the two companies' respective strengths in home search services and financing, bringing everything together under one virtual roof. It's an all-stock deal for$1.7 billion. Redfin's market cap at the peak was almost$10 billion. But it was a meme stock.

43:00I mean, this thing went crazy. What is Redfin? Is it just shitty Zillow? Well, I wonder if this is Rocket just trying to compete with Zillow. But I love – Redfin has amazing research. Like their weekly pieces on the – That's true. It is amazing. And it sounds like the CEO is going to continue to keep – to stay on at least for a while. So I don't know. Not being a – I shouldn't say shitty Zillow. I don't know anything about it. I would just say it's like second tier Zillow. Yeah. I really like Redfin though. They have great research and I hope they keep putting it out. Okay. There was an article in the FT by Robin Wigglesworth, and it's a great chart showing private market marks of the private equity companies, two of which I own.

43:44Are you viewing this as a buying opportunity? Yeah. They're not getting slaughtered, but they're down pretty good. They're getting hit pretty hard. I think some of them are down. Remind me which ones you own. I own Blackstone and Blue Owl. Okay. But it's funny because it shows KKR, Blackstone, Carlisle, Apollo, Aries, and Brookfield. Then the stocks are getting slaughtered. And then it shows private market marks, just straight flat. I know people get really upset. Like this drives Cliff nuts. And I understand exactly why, but this is like the benefit of private markets. This is why people do it, right?

44:19And I know it's not the whole reason. And I know it's like a charade, but like, sorry, this is one of the benefits of not market to market. It is what it is. It's not going to change. I had a tweet that went a little viral the other day. I'm going to throw it in here right now and see if you laugh or not. I mean, it's not necessarily my best work, but this is okay. All right. I'm putting it right underneath the chart here. What do you think? You know what really sells it is the plus 0%, right? That was good. You're right. So the tweet is current drawdowns S &P 500, the NASDAQ, the Russell, and then private credit is plus 0%.

44:55You're right. That was very good. I did it. That was very good. Oh, so the Wayback Machine, usually we look at our old charts, but Josh sent us this piece in the New York Times that was like 30 charts for how COVID changed the world. And I pulled a couple out. And I still think the craziest, maybe the craziest chart of all for this decade is oil prices that went negative. And then Russia invaded Ukraine and it went crazy. And then it's still just kind of normalized. I think it's back to$66 a barrel. Almost where Billy Bob says the perfect price is. Did he say the perfect price is? $67? I forget.

45:27$70? Um, and this one I'd never seen before alcohol sales in the pandemic. I had never seen this before. Went absolutely bananas. I think I was drinking every night. Oh yeah. That for like eight months, maybe even, maybe even two years. Who's to say? I do remember you telling me like, I'm, what are you doing now? I'm pouring myself a drink. It was like six o 'clock at night or something. Uh, but I, I didn't really, it was like being at a hotel every night. it's on the pre-pandemic trend now, but it went up massively through like 2021, 2022. I never see, did you see any of these charts that stood out to you?

46:04I mean, there's a lot of good ones. I haven't looked at them yet. Okay. That's all I got. All right. You know, I'm not, I'm not usually a self-help guy. In fact, some of the self-help nonsense that eat people up, that people eat up makes me a little angry, but it's not really fair because I do know that there are people that take a lot of comfort in the self-help stuff. I know that it helps people get through some hard times. So. I do wonder though how much, because there's so much of it coming out all the time. I just wonder what percentage of people it actually helps and what percentage of people just consume and consume and consume because it makes them feel better, but it doesn't actually change their behavior.

46:42Yeah, I don't know. I guess the reason why I have like even a little bit of a soft spot is I remember Tony Robbins' book, Awaken the Giant Within. Like my mom had it on her nightstand when my parents got divorced a long time ago. I just remember that book being there. And so maybe that's why I have a little bit of a soft spot for it. But I think it's mostly bullshit, even if it does help people. But anyway, I say all that to say that this tweet I liked. Somebody tweeted, Blue W missed. I'm 37. Instead of regretting that I can't wake up age 18 again, I pretend to myself that I'm 90 and I've woken up at age 37 and then I get to magically, wonderfully have the next 50 years again.

47:21That's good perspective. I like that. That's good perspective, right? Yes. So I was driving, I don't know where I was, but you know when you drive through kind of a rural area and there's that one house that has just a million things strewn about the lawn? There's like cars on cement. There's stuff everywhere. It's like a house from like 40 years ago. It doesn't belong in modern civilization. And so I saw this Pontiac Transport minivan. Look at a picture of this. You remember these things? And the one that I saw was like red with a gray. I just, I, so I, I went down a little rabbit hole of 1990s minivans and I can't believe how ugly some of the cars were that we used to drive in.

48:00They were just, remember like the Astro vans and look at this thing. It was just. The Buick Aztec or was it the Aztec? Was that the ugliest car? That was like around 2000. It was like. Oh yeah. That was Walter White drove and breaking bad. Yeah. That was pretty bad. But the 90s had just the minivans. Remember the Plymouth? The Plymouth. There was like a weird like box shaped little car. Was it a Plymouth or a Chrysler? I can't remember. Oh, yeah. There's some bad, yeah. Ben, as we've said a bunch, we're not spring chickens anymore. I just saw an Instagram reel where it was a couple of dudes, and they were doing a reel of, did you know the president of the Boston Bruins, this former hockey player, Cam Neely, was in, was CBass and Dumb and Dumber, and their minds were blown.

48:48Like, how do you know that? And like, Oh, like they didn't know. Well, cause we all knew it. Everyone who was eight years old, that's what I'm saying. Yes. Like it was a big thing at the time. That guy over there is sea bass. I still contend. That's the, on Wayne's world deal. A couple of weeks ago, Kyle Brandt said Wayne's world is the most quotable movie of all time. It's dumb and dumber. Absolutely false. Dumb and dumber is the most quotable movie in history. All right. This was a good one from a YouTube comment. I bet most of you wouldn't think of this as a top recession proof job, but it's definitely up there.

49:14A casino dealer. My mom has been working in a casino for 20 to 30 years. and no matter the economy, people always find a way to gamble. Yeah. I do wonder if that will be put to the test though of the DraftKings and fans, because DraftKings has already done a lot, the stock. I wonder if that will be put to test in the next actual recession. Yeah, I think so. The fan duels and - I think so. But it is funny to think the casinos might be a little different than that. This is a great email. I don't really, I don't know that I have a great response to this, but I thought it was cute. Inspired by Ben's great take on eggs being a great cheap source of protein.

49:47I wanted to challenge you guys to come up with top 10 bank for your buckway to feed a family. I mean, I know you're going to say Little Caesars. Oh, I was going to say, I was thinking eggs, bananas, Little Caesars, and pasta. Jimmy John's. Oh, wow. You have eggs, bananas. You can't feed a family about bananas. I guess you do breakfast bananas. Bananas for breakfast. Bananas are so cheap. Yeah. Every time. I just got three pounds of bananas yesterday for like$1.50. What are you, a gorilla? Three pounds. How much is that? Me and my son and my kids, we all love bananas. How much is the three pounds?

50:20But the thing is, it's like two big things of it. The thing is, I get a lot because everyone's, you know, one or two of them is going to be bad and you're going to throw them out, but who cares because they're so cheap. So I just buy extras. You don't throw out the bad bananas. You make a smoothie out of it. Come on. Well, my wife does that. She freezes them and they make banana bread too. My kids love banana bread. So we do a lot of that. Okay. I'll think about that. Okay. Story time. I guess we can talk about this. So you came to visit me this weekend. For reasons that are uninteresting, We put off my brother's funeral service.

50:48He didn't want a regular funeral, so we put it off and had it this weekend. And so, I don't know. It was maybe a month after he died or so. And I was kind of excited for it at the beginning. And then I dreaded it as it was approaching because I knew I was going to see all the people I know in my life that, like, mean something to me and to him. And it was definitely an extreme day. So I appreciated you coming, for sure. and it was funny how many friends and family afterwards came up and said, so I talked to Michael and I felt like I knew him already. Everyone already felt like they knew you, which was funny.

51:24So you did a good job fitting in and literally meeting everyone in my family.

51:31But yeah, I mean the most profound thing was the fact that we'd set it up for this. He didn't want a regular funeral, so we just had what we thought was going to be an open house for like in a big event hall. and we did it for three hours because we figured people were coming to go and like everyone just stayed. Everyone came and nobody left. It was, I don't know, 300, 350 people standing in your room only. So that part of it was, like I don't even think he had the realization of what a profound impact he had on people, you know. So that part was cool. It was, but just seeing the looks on people's faces, that was the worst.

52:08Yeah. My uncles, my aunts, cousins, his friends. And so that part was just, it was all like, that was awful. I like. You know, it's the most contagious thing in the world, tears. Yes. If somebody comes up to you with tears, you're not gonna be like, you're not gonna like laugh. That's what happened to me. Like in his friends seeing me for the first time, they were feeling bad for me. I was feeling bad for them. And so, yeah, there was a lot of tears shed. It was, but it was, you know, it was great to see the impact he had. It was still, It was just a very, very hard day. And I just been thinking a lot.

52:44And I don't know if this is true for you, because I think one of the things that I've always thought was like a very positive about you is like you, I think Tim Ferriss said this once, and this is getting back to that self-help stuff. He said like, the only way to make it through life is like the ability to have difficult conversations. And I feel like whenever we partner up on something, I'm the good cop and you're the bad cop. Like you don't mind having difficult conversations with people. Like you actually like flourish in those moments. But only in business. Well, okay. Not in my personal life.

53:11Oh, well, maybe that's part of it. But I'm like that in all aspects of life. Like, I don't like having difficult conversations. That's just my - Yeah, you climbed out of your car instead of honking. Right. But I feel like I've had so many conversations with friends and family members that I never thought I would have in the past month or so that like, I feel like nothing can - I feel like I have this armor on now. Like, I don't - There's nothing that can make me not willing to have a conversation with someone about something. Because you hear other people opening, up and it's just like, there's so many of it that I told you, I'm, I'm totally desensitized now, maybe for right or wrong.

53:47I, it just, it totally has taken a layer of something off of me. So I think that, and I think that's going to be good and bad in certain ways, but anyway, it was, you, you did great. Your, your speaking was incredible. Yeah, it was, I put a lot of work and thought into that. Um, so I was glad people liked it, But I just, yeah, I wanted to get a good sense of him. And I tried to make it more upbeat and positive because I didn't want to just sit there and cry the whole time. So my son told me that I can't weep up there. So I did what I could. Did George have fun with me? George had fun with you, yes.

54:25I told you that my kids were very excited to meet you because they've heard so much about you and they've seen it on YouTube. And George goes, so he's bald, right?

54:34That was the – but there was a few people who said, I've only heard Michael I've never seen him because they don't watch the YouTube or whatever they you know they've and so they didn't they were trying to pick you out and some people were way off right because there was a few I have a few people who were like New Yorkers or that were there and so anyway yes but but it is like the the one of the best parts about this that you never want to go through a situation like this but you just it makes you realize how much like love and support you have from people and that is like the thing you don't want ever to have to feel that, but knowing it's there is wonderful.

55:04Yeah. So I'm an emotional person, as you know. I like to feel the feelings. And I've been on a lot of airplanes over the past couple of weeks. So I've had time to get into some things. And for the first time in my life, I've been binging a podcast. Thanks to you. I'm a huge fan of Neil Brennan's comedy. I love his Netflix specials. Three Mics, I think, is an all-timer comedy special. It's incredible. And so he has a podcast called Blocks, which was one of his Netflix specials, where the blocks are things like anxiety and doubt and depression, all these sort of whatever you feel. He's a very deep guy.

55:45Yeah. Whatever we all feel in our daily lives that inhibit growth and whatever. Right. So he has a podcast where he interviews friends, comedians, actors. And And for the first time in my life, I binged a podcast. I didn't listen to all of them because there's over 100 episodes, but I think I listened to like 10. Just pick out the best guests, basically, right? So I started from the most recent one, Billy Macy, William H., and just worked my way backwards. And then I skipped around and I went to the beginning. But one of the... So I can't recommend it highly enough because it's not a typical interview.

56:19Oh, tell me about this time that you got this job. Who else almost got the job? what you know what's it it's it goes deep and you get to see that like all of these people are people and to hear them talk about just life like I I just I enjoyed the shit out of it um but I also noticed that I really enjoy and I think especially because laughter uh tears are contagious and so is laughter like when you're listening to a podcast and it's emotional and and especially when it's funny like you want to see people you want to laugh with them and so I understood for the first time why people watch us. And you can now watch us on Spotify, by the way.

56:57But I was upset because the first interview with Letterman, there's no video. And so it didn't really hit me until I was like, oh man, I wish this is disappointing. I wish I could watch it. So are you watching the Spotify one while it's on? Is that how you did it? Well, I'm not like sitting down on my couch, but I was on the airplane. And if it's in the car, just a glance over. So I very much enjoy, not that I'm going to ever sit down and watch a podcast on my couch, although I know a lot of people do, but I get it. It's a much richer experience. If you didn't listen to it, I like the Jerry Okama one, actually.

57:33Okay, I skipped over that one. I like Jerry. He's a funny guy. All right, so Ben, I want to give you credit. The Pit is my favorite Ben Carlson recommendation. I love Pittsburgh. I've only been there once, but I had a great time there. Wonderful city. It's such a good show. It's, it's so, it's just so high quality. I don't like the squeamish parts. As we mentioned earlier, the top of the show, I look away, but my God, is it good? So here's my, here's my take. And this may be a little hyperbole, but they have the Oscars for movies and they have the Emmys for TV. I feel like every year, this sounds like a Bill, Bill Simmons taken in a way, but every year they should have a heavyweight belt and the heavyweight belt goes to the person who is the best actor or actress that year.

58:22Like the best performance of anything. So it could be a movie, a TV show. It could be SNL, any of this stuff. And I feel like Noah Wiley as a doctor on that show right now is the best performance on anything right now. He is so good and believable. And again, I think it's because he was on ER, but yeah, it's a very good. One of the things about the show that I really like is like, I have a pretty good life and I think I'm very aware. I wake up every day thinking about how lucky I am to be where I am. given my shitty background and whatever. But this is such like a great reminder of like how great we have it.

58:56The people, both the stories and the people in the emergency room that are like, obviously happens all day across the country and across the world. Like these are real stories. And the doctors that have to deal with this trauma on a daily basis. Like you cannot begin to imagine what those people, what those like real heroes do. It really makes you appreciate doctors and nurses and anyone in the healthcare profession a lot more, doesn't it? Like, can you imagine if every day you had to deal with that much? No. Oh, my God, yes. I have a friend whose wife is an ER doctor, and I thought about it. Like, oh, my gosh, I can't.

59:29It's obviously not always that hectic. But there are obviously times when it is very hectic like that, and you're constantly going from one trauma to the next, and I can't even imagine the amount of stress that puts you under. And I talk to people who say, like, listen, because I've had a lot of doctors reach out, actually, because of my brother and say, like, listen, And because we do this all the time, we have to separate our thoughts and feelings. But every once in a while, we have these feelings that creep in, and that's when it's hardest. And they show that on the show. Yes. My God, it's good.

59:59Lastly, I finished Paradise on Hulu, and I enjoyed the hell out of it. I wasn't looking forward to season two, but now I am. Did you like it or not? I think I liked it too. I think season two could be a bear market. It happens a lot, but I don't know. We'll see. I have faith in the creator, the guy that did This Is Us. Yeah, it's better than I thought it would be. When they make the reveal of what's going on in the first episode, I kind of felt like, oh, really? Well, because you're like, is this going to be super cheesy? Yes, that's what I thought. And it was pretty well done. So I watched a Michael movie this weekend on HBO.

1:00:34I watched Heretic with Hugh Grant. Yeah, I don't think you liked it. No, I didn't like it. It wasn't for me. It's kind of like I knew what was coming and what was happening. that kind of movie just doesn't like I knew it was going to happen. Hey idiot, get out of the house! I thought the end was really dumb. It totally fell apart. But I enjoyed the first 80 % of it. You didn't enjoy it at all? I mean it was a good performance by him. Yeah. But just not my thing. It's okay. No big deal. I want to end with two things. One, I want to make the prediction that we make during Ever Correction which is that at some point when you have such a big like you have so many big down days.

1:01:15We're down 3 % yesterday. The Nasdaq was down 4%. We're going to get a face ripper one of these days. That's obvious, right? In corrections, even if the correction still goes down, you get one big face ripper along the way. Always. And then two, we're going to be in Miami next week, which I'm really excited about. I can't wait to be in the sun. And we're going to be at Future Proof Citywide. I really hope the market stabilizes for many reasons. I don't like seeing the market go lower. I also really don't want to be like, having a good time and, you know. I do remember Josh was saying this the other day in our firm call that it was like September 2022, which is like the height of the inflation.

1:01:52That was when we had the first city future-proof in California. And yeah, I don't know. I kind of like having a little more excitement in the air about it. You're right. It's more fun when it's just laid back, but I kind of like people having people a little on edge thinking about this stuff. Really? But I just, I don't want to be like, because we have a good time there. We do. You know, and I don't want to be having a good time when the market is imploding. Okay. So you want to see a rally? I just want to say, can we just chill out? Stop the selling for a second? I didn't look. So the market is open.

1:02:24It's 10 o 'clock Eastern or so. That's the piece down 30 basis points. Okay. Yeah, not great. But I don't know if this is good or bad. The selling is very orderly. You're not seeing... It is very orderly. Nicole was talking to Josh about this. You don't want to see the VIX grind higher. like you want to see a VIX spike to like really get a flush like a higher grind is like just indicative of like uncertainty and it's just it's not good you haven't seen but like on the flip side you haven't seen like the credit market react that's when you really start worrying about a recession when the spreads finally blow out right so we'll see where this goes we'll see where this goes we'll see you next week I don't know what type of show we're going to do next week well we're doing a live annual spirits at FutureProof so if you're there are we just going to do a regular show?

1:03:12I think we do, especially if there's a question going on. I think there'll be plenty to talk about. Yeah. We thought about trying to do something different, but I think we're going to have to do just a regular piece going on because it's going to be a crazy time. All right. Well, market drives narrative. All right. Animal Spirits at the Compound News. Thank you for listening. Everybody stay safe. Stay sober. Don't overreact. We'll see you next time.

1:03:41Thank you.