Yolo Spenders (EP.328)

24:05And what is my favorite thing about the Wall Street Journal? When they quote random people. Yes. All right. So they said Americans spent 5.8 % more in August than a year earlier while it's tripping 4 % inflation. Delta Airlines, record revenue. Ticketmaster sold over 295 million event tickets in the first six months, up 18 % year over year. People are still spending. So they asked this guy, let's see. He says if he were to buy at current rates, he'd be spending$5 ,000 a month for his mortgage. Instead, he's renting for$3 ,000. And instead of saving for a down payment, he's going crazy. He went on Taylor Swift era's tour.

24:44He went to a$3 ,500 bachelor party in Ibiza. He said, I might as well enjoy it now. Here's another one. Lindsay and Daryl Bradshaw went into credit card debt to finance a vacation to Maui this past spring. We did not have the money, and we were like, let's just do it anyway. So the credit card debt going to Maui, not a big fan of that. I think this is actually a good one. Rather than funnel all their spare change into a house or retirement account, Candace and Jasmine started a bucket list fund after attending back-to-back funerals a few months ago. The couple added a few hundred bucks on their paycheck each month into the fund, which they have used to try fancy restaurant tasting menus and buy a dream designer handbag.

25:21So instead of waiting to have fun while they retire, they are trying to do the opposite and have fun now. As long as they're saving something for retirement, I'm actually okay with this last one. The fact that they're like budgeting a fun, guilt-free spending thing. But obviously these are the usual Wall Street Journal people telling on themselves. but I think this is going to happen to a lot of people. And eventually people will run out. But I think all that's going to happen is people are going to take out home equity lines of credit and people are going to spend credit card debt. And I think the excess savings is not just going to go back to zero and stop.

25:55I think people are just going to go deeper into debt to finance their spending. You can't turn that spigot off unless people start losing their jobs. Of course you can. How? You don't think people like this are going to be like, no, we're not putting Maui on a credit card if we're in a recession? What are you out of your mind? No, that's what I'm saying. It's going to take a recession to stop this. And it will. It absolutely will. But I think honestly, if we go into a recession, the first few months are going to be people not believing and still spending their faces off. Part of me agrees with you that people were, we said this a lot in 2022.

26:31I'm basing this on nothing besides human nature and telling people, no, we have to stop spending after I just been spending for two or three years. like you're nuts. I'm still spending. No. You think people are going to Taylor Swift concerts if unemployment goes up to 5 %? People are spending whatever they were spending previously? No, obviously not that group. But I'm just saying, I think the consumer is in still a pretty good place to like have a backstop. They are, they are. But in a recession, people's behavior changes on a dime. I don't think it's that gradual. If you lose your job, you're spending changes overnight.

27:07Sure, but a lot of it depends on what is the response to the next recession. Because that didn't happen in the COVID recession. That was maybe an outlier one-off. But I think a lot of what happens during the next recession is going to be dependent on what the government's response is. Are we getting a recession in 2024? Yes. It's a much higher likelihood than 2023. The funny thing is, remember, it felt like going out on a limb in January and saying no recession in 2023. It did. Credit to us. 2024 has a way higher probability. I mean, you're right. 8 % mortgage rates. I still can't believe that there hasn't been more things broken in the economy or even in the fund world, like leveraged up treasuries or something that hasn't gotten blown up from TLT being down 50 % or whatever.

27:54I'm really surprised there hasn't been more things that have broken yet. Aren't you? Yes. Yeah, I am. I can't believe more. And maybe it's just to just wait for it. But I don't think this is even a lag thing because the barn rates are getting worse. It's not like rates just stayed where they were and then we'll see what happens. Rates are, you're right, rates are getting worse. And yes, I'd say higher, higher than 50 % chance of a recession in the next 18 months. And I would have said way lower in 2023. You know what is breaking? Utilities, of which, unfortunately, I'm an owner of. There, I said it.

28:37I own utilities. How much am I down? So you've really been going for the rate reversal short-term play here? No, I bought this a couple of weeks ago. I'm down 13 % on my purchase. It is just straight up liquidation. Feels like panic selling. Well, doesn't this make sense, though? Of course it does. It absolutely makes sense. So utilities are down 20 % from the highs this year? Josh and I are going to go deep on this, on what are your thoughts tonight. So when do you expect dividend stocks and utilities and preferred stocks and convertibles, all these? They are. All these fixed income alternatives of the past few years people have been piling into.

29:12Dude, they are. They have to be getting crushed. PFF is, I don't want to say crashing is a bit too strong of a word, but PFF is getting hammered. Hammered. XLP? PFF is only down 8%, though. That's not that bad. I would have expected worse. Oh, you noob. What? You noobie noob whale. What do you mean it's only down 8 %? Look at it the last three days or the last two days. It's just going straight down. Okay. Oh, okay, there it is. Yeah, it's bad. It's bad. Let's talk about speaking of active investment decisions. Last week, we spoke about I was trying to defend active mutual funds through the lens of, Well, actually, if investors are confident in their assertions that they're selecting the right managers, then maybe they're more likely to stick with them.

29:59And actually, I wasn't that far off. So Jeffrey Patak shared us the average annual return for various categories over the last decade. And he compared them with investor returns. And often there's a gap, obviously, as we know. So the gap between passive returns and investor returns is negative 1.43 % a year. So over the last decade, and I don't know if this is the rules of 1 ,000 or S &P 500, it doesn't really matter, but that's a 12.1 % a year. The average investor in those funds did 10.7%. Now, a lot of this is also timing of money coming in and out, which could just be dollar cost average, for example.

30:40That doesn't necessarily have to mean bad behavior. So these things are really sort of complicated to unpack. So forget about the passive. But the fact is that the average investor in US active equity funds did 11.2 % versus 11.5 % for the category. It's pretty damn good. I have to assume timing is the really big, because if money has been coming out of active funds going into passive, I'm guessing that explains this difference. because it does look like the behavior gap is bigger and passive, and that makes zero sense to me intuitively. Well, Jeffrey did say that that was sort of driving the wedge in the behavior of passive, but forget about that for a sec.

31:20The performance of the average investor in active funds relative to what they could have gotten if they just stayed put is effectively zero, right? They basically earned every return that the managers earned. So credit to them. Kudos to them. That is interesting, yeah. All right, this is also interesting. Wait, back to your confidence, confident in your assertions thing. I can say like, I look for the positive side of most things. I have zero idea what's going to happen going forward from here. Like all the stuff coming together, the fiscal stuff running off, the excess saving stuff running off and consumer balance sheets and all this stuff.

31:51I would not be pounding the table on anything right now in terms of like, this is what's going to happen next. I have zero clue where we, and anyone who says they have an idea, like how many people predicted what would happen now? No one, literally no one. Also, what about the regional bank failures? What is, what are these interest rates do to their balance sheets? I, that's the thing we've, it's like, that was like a three day crisis and it felt bad at the time. Then we moved on and then it's like, okay, I guess everything's fine now. But yeah, you're right. I don't, that's a good question. I wouldn't be, I wouldn't be shocked if over the next week, if things continue to get gnarly, that somebody says something to try and calm shit down.

32:29I don't know if that's going to go well or if that would happen. My other question though, like who owns all the mortgage bonds that were, that were put out there for 3 % another 8%. Michael Burry. Who owns though? Someone's getting crushed on these mortgage bonds and I guess you say, well, they hold them to maturity and they'll be fine, but maybe that's the point. I mean, maybe that's the point. There's no market losses, but right. How many 3 % mortgages were put out there from refinancing people buying and then now rates are 7.5 %? Yeah, listen, I'm definitely not trying to sound hysterical, but, you know, this is where some stuff.

33:06I think so. The thing is, the Fed has probably wanted rates to go higher for a while. There's no way that they wanted him to go this high this fast, especially when it seems like they've got inflation under control a little bit. Yeah. Right? Yeah. Credit to Ackman. He came out a couple of, probably a month ago or so. Talking about buying 30-year on this breakout and a lot of people were dunking. Credit to him. Great trade. Freaking nailed it. All right. First weekly outflow for US fixed income in 39 weeks. This is kind of interesting. People finally say, you know what? This hurts. Don't like it.

33:45Which is kind of funny now that rates are so high. But yeah, if you're looking at the past performance of bonds, you've gotten crushed. All right. So getting back to inflation going the right way, this alligator tooth. You know why I thought it was funny you said tooth? Because I mean, if anything, it's teeth, right? It's definitely plural. There's many, but let's stick with the tooth. I like that. Jason Furman tweeted, the inflation data from PCE, which is what the Fed focuses on, were much better for August than the CPI data. We now have three unambiguously good months in a row for core PCE.

34:16Annual rates at one month is 1.8%. For three months, it's 2.2%. For six months, it's 3%. This is good. This is good. This is why the bond stuff is so interesting to me, though. Forever, it's like, why aren't bond yields budging at all? the longer term, inflation is so high, and now inflation actually is coming down to trend, and bond yields are taking off. I don't know. I honestly still can't explain it. This is an interesting one. Jeremy Horperdahl, which I think we've mentioned two weeks in a row, so I had to follow this guy. If I mention your tweets twice, I've got to follow you. I'll do the same.

34:54What does this person tweet about? He is total an economic myth buster kind of guy. So someone said, look at how much stuff is up over the last year and all the numbers were wrong. And he said, no, here's the actual changes through August 2023. And some of the stuff is actually falling. Gas is down 3%. Airline tickets are down 13%. Used cars are down 7%. Suits are down 5%. Bacon down 6%. Orange juice down 4%. Milk down 4%. Eggs are down 18%. Some stuff is up still too. Dry cleaning is up 6%. Baby food is up 8%. But some stuff is actually reversing inflation-wise. not just going up at a slower rate, it's actually going down.

35:35Good to see, I guess. Great to see. Okay. My puts on Michael Lewis are up 10x in the last three weeks for calling the Michael Lewis bear market. I read a few of the reviews. Here's one thing I can say for sure. I'll probably read the book. I'm not going to see the movie for sure. definitely not going to see the Sam Banker and Freed movie. I think that guy's a psychopath. He is a modern day Charles Ponzi. I'm not giving that guy my time of day. Did you watch any of the 60 minutes interview? Yes. Thoughts? I'm a big Michael Lewis fan, as I think a lot of people are. I want to defend him a little bit only to so all of the clips that people saw I understand the outrage I think it came off as bad as it possibly could have that being said he could have spent 10 hours with that crew right like and I'm not saying that it was taken out of context and therefore it's forgiven but But he could have spent legitimately 10 hours with them or more.

36:47Who the hell knows? I think, in other words, I don't think that was not, if, if, if that, if that was not an edited interview, holy, holy, holy, holy moly. But I read a couple of reviews of the book this morning and the reviews of the book kind of make it out to seem like he got duped. And here's my take. I, I'm a huge Michael Lewis fan as well. I think what's, what's happening to Michael Lewis is what happened to comedians become too famous. This is my theory. When's the, what's the last funny thing? Will Ferrell or Adam Sandler or Jim Carrey has done. Like those were three of the funniest people over the last 30 or 40 years probably.

37:18And then they become so famous and then they stop doing really funny stuff. They can transition a little bit or they go to family movies or serious stuff, but they can't do the funny stuff anymore. Michael Lewis got so big with the blind side and the big short because I thought the wheels started coming off a little bit with Flash Boys. Yeah, Flash Boys. I don't like Flash Boys. But some of the stuff he was saying about Sam Bankman, I think he got roped into this guy and wanted there to be a narrative and a story that just wasn't there. I think he wanted it so badly that he became a little blinded to it.

37:51And I think he's going to regret writing this book. I mean, the quote that there is still a Sam Bankman-Fried-shaped hole in the world that now needs filling. That's pretty rough. I mean, and he's saying there actually was a business there. It was a run in the bank. Like, no, this was fraud. This is out-and-out fraud. It was taking these two firms and he was trading client money in his own personal hedge fund and losing it. Or I don't know. I just, I don't think he's going to, whatever. The book's probably going to make a ton of money. They're going to make a movie about this. And he's going to be fine either way.

38:27But I think reputationally, he's not, he's going to regret writing this book. I think so. Yeah. Again, I fully understand why people are up in arms. I really do. I just, I hope that it was heavily edited because if, whatever, not, it's not good. It's not good. Um, all right, let's talk about, let's talk about real estate. The 30 year is 7.6%. Will it hit eight? I don't know. Why not?

38:58Uh, yeah, 7.6 as of, I think it got 7.8 last. So Jeff Tucker put outstanding mortgage debt by interest rate. and he's showing that it peaked, the 4 % or less peaked at 77%, call it, in 2022. And now it's going down in the 4 % to 5%, 5 % to 6%, and 6 % or more is starting to move up and take more. So it's like slowly chipping away as people. That's the thing. I know it seems like, quote unquote, no one is buying a house right now, but I think there's still, what, 400 ,000 houses selling every month. It's lower than it was in the past, but there's still turnover happening. There will be - No, there's not.

39:37There's no turnover happening. US pending home sales has now fallen 44 % from its peak. But if you look at existing home sales, there's nothing happening. All of the difference. So there was an article, Zillow did an article. This is just wild. Total residential housing market value by Metro. So it's$52 trillion. The home real estate is at a record high. They said the total value of US housing market is 49 % higher than before the pandemic. The total value of the US housing market surged by more than $2.6 trillion over the past year. And here's where it's coming from. While a small chunk of this growth can be attributed to a 1.3 % rise in the average value of a US home over the past year, the powerhouse behind this surge has been new construction.

40:20Builders have chipped away at the housing deficit as a steady flow of new homes have hit the market this spring and summer. Kind of interesting, right? It's like when a market, it's like if a market cap gets bigger by just issuing more shares without the price going down. Anecdotally, there's not a ton of like land around where I live in the suburbs of Grand Rapids, but they're squeezing in new houses anywhere they can. Like taking down woods and tearing down a farm. Like they're squeezing in new residential places anywhere they can. This is kind of hilarious. Sky high interest rates. brought housing supply to the market finally?

40:59New houses? Yeah, it is. They're kind of the only game. But there are existing homes being sold, though. Not really. It's like 30 % new homes. But it's still, Mike Simonson said there was 340 single-family homes in contract pending stage around the country as of last week, which is, again, way lower. But there's still some turnover happening. Goldman Sachs, Lance Lambert tweeted this, Goldman Sachs reaffirms its U.S. home price outlook. They expect house prices to rise 1.8 % in 2023 and 3.5 % in 2024. Last week we were talking about, there was a quote from the Fortune article. I guess an economist was saying how if there is any relief in interest rates, watch out.

41:39Activity is going to just go vertical. One thing that we didn't take this a step further, Josh did. He slacked us. I'm with you guys and I will take it a step further. not only would home prices dropping 20 % not lead to a financial crisis, I actually think it would serve as an economic stimulus. Nothing creates more activity in local markets like a house turning over. A drop of 20 % nationally, which is very unlikely, would lead to massive turnover. Gen Y families starting households in the tens of millions would create a boom in shopping, renovation, et cetera. They'd be ripping out a million miles worth of boomer carpeting.

42:10And that was a very good take. That is the funny thing about like the, what do you call it? Like the decision tree? Like if you go this way, you go this way. Like all the different paths right now well if rates fail but why are rates falling is it because of a recession or it's like all these paths you could take for what's going to happen in the economy and these things like i could i could totally see uh a boom in demand and activity from falling house prices but i don't know what what causes those rates to fall though i don't know that that's like that's what you have to square it with so you know it's you know it's uh just going i want to say what's the opposite of going vertical, but I don't want to use a crashing word because that's really hyperbolic.

42:51So let's just say that these prices are dropping like a lead rock. Like a lead rock? Like a rock. Like a stone? Like a rock. Lead balloon. Remember the like a rock commercial? Was that Chevy? Yeah. Bob Seger. Great commercial. All right. So here's what's dropping like a rock. XHB. Lowe's and Home Depot. Oh my God. These look so bad. Regional banks. like the things that are tied to utilities, as I mentioned, the things that are tied to interest rates. So a lot of these things that we're doing well are now finally getting hit. Hit is an understatement, but yes, they are. So here's the, here's why like the recession part of the thing matters.

43:34So someone sent this to me, a look at home prices. And I said, if you would have given me truth serum and said, rates are going from 3 % to 7.5 % and home prices just rose 50%, I would have said, I don't care what historical data you showed me, home prices are coming down 10 % or so. That would have been like, if you would have, at gunpoint, I would have guessed that's what would happen. It hasn't. And I know all the reasons because we've been talking about them forever. But this collateral analytics looked at like the thing that matters most to housing is not interest rates. It's not the economy, it's employment.

44:08So over a 20 year period, they find that like, there's other factors that drive it. But mostly if people have jobs, housing is going to do fine. And I think that's the one thing. And maybe that's why people were so surprised that the labor market was so strong. And if you want the biggest reason why housing prices have stayed strong and not fallen off a cliff, it's because people still have jobs and they still have money to spend. Yeah. So what happens if jobs start going away a little bit? I guess it depends how many jobs go away and how bad a economic slowdown would be. That's the, I don't know, if unemployment rate increases 1%, is that really going to impact the housing market.

44:44I just feel like you're not ready to see the Dow at 14 ,000. Here's the thing though, counterintuitively, could we see like a correction if we get a recession, but then rates fall and the Fed steps in and of course the markets take off. Of course. Like people would be so mad, but that's all right. Uh, one more thing on our UK and Canada housing prices we talked about last week. A lot of Canadians wrote in and said, I see what you're saying. It is wicked unaffordable up here, but we're letting in so many immigrants to the country and we didn't build enough houses, just like the US, that immigration is the thing that's keeping housing prices up and housing prices in Canada are not going to fall.

45:23Thoughts? Their immigration policies are much less strict than here. They're letting people in. I don't know anything about, I have no thoughts. I wouldn't even pretend to muster a thought. I heard that from half a dozen people in Canada. So I'll leave that to them, but I could see that, I guess. The question is, what is going to cause companies to start laying off employees? I mean, it all comes back to consumer spending, right? If people are still spending and still buying, I mean, this is very circular logic, but I don't know. It's hard. All right. Let's talk about Disney for a second. Alex Morris, who has a wonderful sub stack, wrote a post on Disney, which I still own.

46:06Disney Global Parks data. So he has attendance versus per capita guest spending. Attendance is more or less flatline. I'm just going to assume that they have capacity. They have a certain capacity and they hit it, right? Epcot has 10 ,000 people a day, whatever the number is, that's it. So unless they're building more parks, it's hard to have more guests. I'm surprised that it's still a little low. I guess there was still pandemic stuff going on, but it's still a little lower than it was pre-pandemic. A little bit. But anyhow, global capita per guest spending is growing rapidly. So Disney hotels, just as an example, Disney hotels, it was$234, I guess, a night in 2010.

46:52And it just goes up a little bit every year. And then in 2022, it really went up. And there's been a lot of pushback for becoming sort of unaffordable. And Disney is committed to spending a lot of money on doing more in parks. That was their strategy. They wanted people who were spending more to come to the parks, even if it was fewer people overall. It's a premium service. Survey of the week from Coinbase. New survey of 2 ,000 American adults suggests 20 % on crypto. Okay, I think that's high, but whatever. And the vast majority see an urgent need to update the financial system. Come on. The vast majority?

47:33can that be? I mean, honestly, if you ask everyday citizens, probably most of them would say yes. I actually don't agree with the 20 % crypto thing. If you ask people, do we need a new financial system? I think most people would say yes. Without understanding. Actually, as I'm thinking this through, I actually think you might be right. I think people would, just because I don't like the way things are going, so I think we need to change it all without understanding what that entails. I think people would say yes. Could be. You think 20 % of people own crypto? That sounds very high. No way. I feel like people have been making up this data for years.

48:09I feel like the number is all over the place, and it's never as high as they say it is. Again, making it up, 1 in 20? Does that sound reasonable? 5 %? Sure. That's fair. What's the crypto market cap these days? I don't know. Is it 1.5 trillion? Calicox with a heck of a tweet. A little more than$1 trillion for global crypto market. I think it was$3 at the peak. She has a chart showing the consumer debt-to-asset ratio for Americans under 40. And she tweeted, You, send me colon. Millennials are going to crash this economy. They spent all their student loan money on Taylor Swift tickets. Me, send me colon.

48:49Nah, they're in the best position to pay off their debt in over a decade. I don't think people realize... Data doesn't lie. Numbers don't lie. I don't think people realize how old millennials are getting. right? I'm approaching my mid forties. I'm a millennial. Most millennials are like getting into their mid to late thirties, early forties, a certain like Gen Z. Millennials are not the young people anymore. It's Gen Z are the young people. Not only are they not young, I have multiple doctor appointments in the next couple of weeks. My body is entering a different phase. Yes. I have a doctor's appointment on Friday for an old man ailment.

49:22Yeah, it's not great. but this millennials are getting older they're this is the thing they're not young people who live in their parents basement anymore all right ben what's this what's this okay so i mentioned a couple weeks ago last week maybe we had our first broken bone and i forgot to mention uh i didn't realize cast technology has improved so much i don't know if you had this with kobe when he broke his leg but libby her arm cast is waterproof she can they want her to go in the water and get it wet and go in the bath and then she just has to wrap a towel around it and whatever the cast technology is and helps with the smell.

49:56They, they like, they said like, eh, try to keep it out of lakes maybe. But if she wants to take a shower or bath every night and get the cast wet, she can't. Huh? That's why. Cast technology has improved. It's pretty interesting. I did not know this. Did, did you see the Mark Zuckerberg, Lex Friedman metaverse video? Yes. Pretty cool. Yeah. They've, they've, they've figured some stuff out. they've come a long way since the, since the cartoons with no legs. I guess the metaverse is still going to be a thing. For those who don't know what we're talking about, Lex Friedman did a thing with Mark Zuckerberg where they put on the goggles and it's not just like they're like zooming with each other.

50:32Like Ben and I are doing right now. They're effectively face to face. It's remarkable. Old guy here. I still can't, I still can't see myself wanting to use that very much. I'd like it for a phone call over anything these days, but I hate how it could be used. Hey, you prefer a zoom to a phone call. I, I, I'm much bigger phone call guy than zoom. Yeah. All right. Um, all right, Ben, there's like a question. Like, what did you, what did you change your mind on? What's it, what's one idea that you killed? And I always struggle to come up with an answer. Like, I don't know. I feel like I don't have like, I mean, I have, I have opinions, but I don't know.

51:14I don't know. And then it occurred to me, the biggest thing that I've changed my mind on over the years, dark meat chicken. Growing up, I was strictly a white meat guy. I think that's because I was averse to maybe the aesthetic. I don't eat bananas with bruises. I think dark meat chicken just doesn't – as a six-year-old, it just looks a little bit suspicious. Same thing with turkey, I assume? Same thing with turkey. For Thanksgiving, okay. But objectively, dark meat tastes better than white meat. At least objectively to my taste buds. Would you agree? I'm a dark meat guy, yes. Yeah. So you've changed your mind on this, okay.

51:57That's the biggest thing I've changed your mind on. Okay, because I always thought white meat was dry and just never did it for me. It's dry, it's dry. It's only good if you had a bunch of salt on it. I saw, I was in a parking lot. I'm glad you kept an open mind about chicken. Yes. I was in a parking lot the other day and I saw the long Wagoneer. And at first I wasn't sure. I thought it was like a special one. I thought it was like a limousine sized one. Like I didn't think it was a one that you could purchase because it looks so big that I genuinely thought it was like a one-off extra trans. I don't know what I thought, but then I saw another one and I'm like, holy shit, these really exist.

52:37The Wagoneer with the extra space, I wish I had a measuring tape. It looks like it's 26 feet long. I'm looking at a picture right now. It does look really elongated. It's like a suburban, yeah. Length. How big is this thing? Let's see. And these are the people who take up two parking spots at the grocery store and the soccer games, and I can never get in and out because of them. So it's the Wagoneer L. it's$111 ,000 starting MSRP let's see dimensions length why are they giving it in inches alright I can do the math it's 19 feet it's literally a boat it's too big I think you could fit a mattress in the trunk for$111 ,000 you better unbelievable People have fewer kids now and bigger houses and bigger cars.

53:37And we wonder why people complain about not having enough money. Wagoneers are going to cause a recession. That's what's going to do it, Ben. I said this like two years ago. I saw a movie. I don't know. Maybe it was like Friday night. I was looking for something to do, board flipping. What service was it on? I can't remember. Probably Netflix. It's called The Foreigner. You ever hear of this movie? Netflix one, maybe? It's not a Netflix one, but it was on Netflix. It was with Jackie Chan and Pierce Brosnan. And Pierce Brosnan is an Irish sort of quasi-government employee. That sounds like a straight-to-DVD movie if I've ever heard of one.

54:12Yeah.

54:16And Jackie Chan's daughter dies from a bomb. And it's a revenge type of movie. Pretty basic stuff. But I mentioned this only to say not that you should watch it. It was fine. but did you know that Pierce Brosnan is Irish in real life? Never thought about it. I guess I would have assumed British because he's James Bond. So he plays an Irishman, as I mentioned, but I Googled it. I was like, wait, is he Irish? Sounds like a pretty damn good accent. He's actually Irish. I always assumed he was British from James Bond and how great is Mrs. Datfire? I do like that movie. What a movie. I wanted to see, I really want to see The Creator even though it got like sort of so-so reviews Might see it this week.

55:07I also, it's been a while since I went to the theaters. You know what I might see? I'm not a fan of this particular type of horror Creators has 7.2 on IMDB. That sounds pretty good That's not bad. Yeah. Might see it tonight Saw 10 Now, I'm not like a torture porn type of guy Ten of these? Listen I saw I definitely saw one I mean obviously I saw one I actually watched probably the first three of them the first Saw is legitimately incredible movie it might even be a film and then I probably saw I don't really remember actually I remember two I don't know if I remember three and I probably bailed after three I probably saw the first three in the theater okay so Saw 10 was not on my radar had no interest in seeing it but until it got really good reviews like this is not like the other nonsensical ones like i might say it might go to the theaters this is why people are worried about ai taking over hollywood though why because they're just they're regurgitating the same stuff you could put all the first nine saw movies into a ai and say make it like this but different write it for me all right i've been on an 80s movie kick lately they had the big chill on the rewatchables last week yeah i need to see that i mentioned it probably two years ago that I finally saw it and I really liked it and I decided to watch it again after listening to it.

56:29And I think it's one of the most high quality 80s movies there is because the 80s, there aren't so many high quality movies in the 80s because they're all so... 80s. I mean, standout. Yeah, they're so 80s. They're not very self-aware. They're cheesy, corny. That's part of the reason I like a lot of them. But this is like a very high quality. What's the best movie from the 80s? Raiders of the Lost Ark? In terms of quality? No, that's the 70s. No, it was like 81. That's 80s? Yeah. Glenn Ross? This is one of them. I hated that movie. Really? This is one of them. Yeah, I thought it was terrible. Great acting, terrible movie.

57:06I don't like watching plays that are turned into movies. Oh, The Shining. Okay, that could be it. But there's not that many high quality ones, right? And this one is moving up my list of one of the more high quality ones that I've seen. I really liked it. I don't want you to see it. It's a coming of age. You don't like coming of age movies. What do you mean? I want to see it. You're not going to like it. Okay, watch it. It's not your kind of movie. All right, so I have a list of the best movies from the 80s. Empire Strikes Back, I would agree. Raging Bull, I'm sorry. Raging Bull is tough. That's a film, not a movie.

57:39Blade Runner, Shining, When Harry Met Sally. When Harry Met Sally is probably my favorite. Die Hard, Cinema Paradiso. Never heard of it. Oh, Aliens. Aliens is my favorite movie from the 80s. That's it. I thought that was 70s. Okay. All right. Princess Bride. All right. Some good movies here. Hey, are you watching Yellowstone? I feel like I haven't seen anybody talk about it. I'm out. No, I watched it. Yellowstone, didn't the new season come out? No, they're replaying the old season on CBS. Oh, that's why I haven't seen anybody talk about it. Okay. They didn't finish yet because Kevin Costner walked off the set.

58:15I watched it. It got bad. Wait, he walked off the set? No, he left the show. He said he's done. Good for him. It turned to shit. I agree. Yeah. So he knows stuff. All right. Glad to have Duncan back today producing. Welcome back, Duncan. Yep. Germany. Well, yeah. Thank you, Duncan, for coming back and producing the show as always. Thank you for listening. AnimalSpiritzPod at gmail.com. Also, listen to Talk Your Book on Monday. We talk about investing in the music industry. Very interesting podcast. See you next time.

58:51Go Go.