In short
Jared Diamond (author of Guns, Germs, and Steel and Collapse) discusses his new book Prophets, Coaches, and Kings: When Do Leaders Matter?, arguing that leadership impact depends on multiple situational factors rather than on a single “great leader” trait. He frames leadership across politics, history, sports, religion, and business, and uses “natural experiments” and case studies to test whether leaders truly change outcomes.
Guest backgrounds
Jared Diamond is a Pulitzer Prize–winning scientist, historian, and professor; trained in physiology and later led a geography department. He is an ornithologist and mythologist, known for books including Guns, Germs, and Steel, Collapse, The Third Chimpanzee, and Upheaval.
Key claims
- There’s no reliable predictor that an individual will be an effective leader.
- Diamond’s six factors include timing/place, “discretion” (decision power), whether the leader is a founder, persuading people to do what they don’t want, and whether outstanding colleagues share the work; plus the “Hamlet test” (rare cases where only one person could plausibly do the job).
- Leaders can matter, but often they don’t account for most outcomes; in business, year/company/industry explain profits more than CEOs do.
Notable examples
- Bill Gates (timing), Churchill (right moment but not cause), Mark Zuckerberg (right time/place by circumstance).
- Sretzi Kama (Botswana independence; high discretion; diamond-related national policy).
- Rachel Carson (Silent Spring; “Hamlet test” fit via science + exceptional writing).
- Linda Resnick (pomegranate juice industry; funded costly infrastructure; outlasted competitors).
- Hitler counterfactuals debated via “natural experiments.”
- John Wooden (UCLA; coaching matters but is closer to “throwing dice” than total control).
- Joseph Smith and other global religions: charisma plus organizer/engine (demographics, economics, and sometimes military).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOReconnecting with Jared Diamond
1:07 to 2:37
A warm conversation between Dax and Jared, reflecting on their previous interview.
“The stuff in my closet, I actually wear.”
Reconnecting with Jared Diamond
4:17 to 5:37
A warm conversation between Dax and Jared, reflecting on their previous interview.
“I have two daughters that I'm hoping will take over much of my cognition as I get older.”
Leadership Insights from Guns, Germs, and Steel
5:41 to 6:49
Discussion on the themes of leadership from Jared's previous works and his new book.
“It really addressed this question of why were Europeans so successful at taking over the rest of the planet?”
Factors Influencing Effective Leadership
6:50 to 10:40
Exploring key factors that determine a leader's effectiveness and their relevance in history.
“We'll get to go through a lot of specific leaders in four different domains, politics, history, sports, religion, and business.”
The Hamlet Test and Its Implications
10:40 to 14:00
Jared explains the Hamlet Test as a measure of leadership uniqueness and effectiveness.
“The founder of a country like George Washington or Lee Kuan Yew.”
The Hamlet Test Explained
14:00 to 15:31
Discover why the concept of the Hamlet Test is important in assessing individual contributions in history.
“He was both the president and the chief of this very important tribe.”
Counterfactuals and Hitler's Impact
15:31 to 18:06
Explore the historical debate on whether Hitler significantly altered the course of history.
“So let's start where the book kind of starts.”
Natural Experiments in Social Science
18:06 to 20:35
Learn about the method of natural experiments and how they can illuminate social sciences.
“Chemists, molecular biologists, they work in the laboratory and they discover things by means of controlled manipulative experiments.”
Leadership Lessons from Unique Figures
20:35 to 21:36
Analyzing the leadership qualities of figures like Cerezi Kama and Rachel Carson.
“So let's go through some of the columns.”
Rachel Carson's Impact and Legacy
21:36 to 24:43
Discover Rachel Carson's contributions to environmentalism and her unique qualifications.
“The two science books in the last 170 years that made the biggest impact on the world were Darwin's Origin of Species, Rachel Carson's Silent Spring.”
Show all 50 chapters
The Rise of the Pomegranate Juice Industry
24:43 to 27:54
Learn about the entrepreneurial success of Linda Resnick in the pomegranate juice market.
“as being the big chemical that we later found out was what was killing, right?”
The Rise of the Pomegranate Juice Industry
29:56 to 31:11
Learn about the entrepreneurial success of Linda Resnick in the pomegranate juice market.
“I just got YouTube Premium this year, and it's completely enhanced how I use YouTube.”
The Rise of the Pomegranate Juice Industry
31:17 to 32:10
Learn about the entrepreneurial success of Linda Resnick in the pomegranate juice market.
“No more juggling five apps or losing track of your money because money that's just sitting there isn't getting you anywhere.”
Leadership Patterns from Political Figures
32:10 to 38:42
Examine the unexpected patterns in leadership among modern political figures such as Churchill and Mandela.
“You do survey 22 modern political leaders, Churchill, Mandela, Mao, Idi Amin, a bunch.”
Impact of CEOs on Business Success
38:42 to 42:05
Discuss the significance of CEOs on company performance and the factors influencing business success.
“In most cases, we can say certainly one can debate Elon Musk.”
Examining John Wooden's Coaching Impact
42:05 to 45:54
Learn about John Wooden's unique coaching philosophy and its life lessons.
“On top of that, he was great at getting people to work together.”
Religion and Charisma
45:55 to 49:47
Explore the role of charisma in the formation and success of new religions.
“Any other school would be thrilled out of their minds to have every one of our basketball coaches, every one of whom we fired.”
Religion and Charisma
50:08 to 50:25
Explore the role of charisma in the formation and success of new religions.
“We are supported by Arm & Hammer Toothpaste, Monica.”
Religion and Charisma
50:31 to 51:33
Explore the role of charisma in the formation and success of new religions.
“a time-tested ingredient you already know and trust.”
Religion and Charisma
52:22 to 53:36
Explore the role of charisma in the formation and success of new religions.
“We get support from Scottsdale, Arizona.”
The Role of Leaders in Religion
53:36 to 56:00
Discuss how leaders like Joseph Smith and Jim Jones shaped religious movements.
“Because the most powerful statement you can make is being yourself.”
Complexity of Charismatic Leaders
56:00 to 56:30
Explore the dual nature of charismatic leaders and their impact on groups.
“His negative sides were that he eventually went crazy.”
Natural Experiments in Leadership
56:30 to 57:10
Investigate how the deaths of leaders influence economies and conflicts.
“Let's talk about really quick in our natural experiment that we flirted with at the beginning.”
Timing and Impact of Scientific Discoveries
57:10 to 1:01:00
Learn about the importance of timing in the acceptance of scientific ideas.
“Jones and Olson, the first question they asked was, do leaders make a difference economically?”
Judging Political Leaders
1:01:00 to 1:02:46
Discuss the complexities of assessing the effectiveness of political leaders.
“He had it absolutely right, but it was ignored.”
The Role of Charisma in Leadership
1:02:46 to 1:04:23
Examine how charisma influences leadership success in various contexts.
“So business schools, including UCLA Business School, justify their charging tuition of$60 ,000 to$100 ,000.”
Perception of Leadership's Impact
1:04:23 to 1:06:00
Consider how much one individual can influence economic and political outcomes.
“I mean, I still love from your first one.”
Pee Color Conversations
1:10:01 to 1:11:40
The hosts discuss their experiences and observations regarding urine color.
“I could imagine you and I have different experiences, though.”
Migraines and Hydration
1:11:41 to 1:12:32
A discussion on hydration and its potential effects, including migraines.
“And is the anticipation building like, oh.”
Hangover Experiences
1:12:33 to 1:14:06
The hosts share their hangover experiences and the strange cravings they have.
“The way that might when I used to have tics and someone was a blinker, it would set it off.”
Recommendations for Fish Sandwiches
1:14:07 to 1:15:53
A conversation about a specific fish sandwich and food recommendations.
“The most curious one is that it would make me crave a filet-o-fish sandwich at McDonald's.”
Hotel Booking Dilemmas
1:15:54 to 1:20:29
The hosts discuss a hotel booking situation and the challenges that arise.
“What if I was driving down Western tonight with the kids and we were protein Melrose and I was like, I swerved down the side street.”
Ordering Items and Refunds
1:20:30 to 1:21:45
A conversation about the challenges of ordering products and requesting refunds.
“I was ordering an umbrella for my patio.”
Nostalgia and Snack Memories
1:21:46 to 1:24:01
The hosts reminisce about their favorite snacks and childhood memories.
“And then a little over here I'm not enjoying.”
Nostalgic Treats: Ensign's Donuts
1:24:01 to 1:25:49
Hosts reminisce about their favorite childhood treats and desserts.
“I asked her to save me a seed and then I get to class and then she didn't save me a seed.”
Cooking Adventures and Pot Roast
1:25:50 to 1:27:19
A humorous discussion about cooking experiences and a pot roast saga.
“He started it yesterday, and then he said it would be ready at 5.30, and then he put a fork in it, and it didn't crumble, and he said, it's not ready, and then it should be ready at 6.30.”
A Bizarre Doctor Visit Experience
1:27:20 to 1:32:07
An entertaining recount of a frustrating visit to an ENT doctor.
“And they remember they enjoy cooking for others.”
Reflections on Healthcare Efficiency
1:32:08 to 1:35:06
Discussion on the inefficiencies of healthcare and doctor visits.
“Yeah, it was crazy how dirty and fucking, how much pack rat shit was all over these different offices.”
Sleep Apnea and Future Tests
1:35:07 to 1:38:05
Hosts share thoughts on sleep apnea and the upcoming sleep study.
“Intermeaning you and interacting with you.”
Sleep Apnea Discussion
1:38:05 to 1:40:14
The hosts discuss sleep patterns, the potential for sleep apnea, and personal anecdotes.
“I've had friends and they hook you up to so many cables and shit and I roll around a lot and I'm on the move when I go to sleep how many pillows do you sleep with?”
Nurse's Integrity and Work Experience
1:40:14 to 1:41:42
A conversation about a nurse's experience and her integrity in the medical field.
“This is in a really, really, really big ding, ding, ding for facts for next episode.”
Sponsor: Pacific Life
1:41:42 to 1:42:18
A promotional segment about Pacific Life, focusing on financial confidence.
“It's moving forward, even when the path ahead is unclear.”
Jared Diamond's Insights on Leadership
1:42:18 to 1:46:04
Discussion about insights from Jared Diamond on leadership and his impressive intellect at age 89.
“I can't believe he was about to turn 89 the next day.”
Art and Knowledge in Specialization
1:46:04 to 1:50:13
Debate on perspectives of expertise in different fields including art, cars, and wine.
“The other one's signed as well, but that one is worth$10 million.”
Value of Experiences vs. Material Goods
1:50:13 to 1:52:00
A discussion on the value of experiences compared to owning expensive items, particularly wine.
“And I really can't because sometimes I'll be at parties and like all, you know, pour and I'm like, I can't drink it.”
The Value of Wine Experiences
1:52:00 to 1:55:19
Discussing the psychological aspects of wine pricing and experiences.
“And she, too, was like, this wine is so good.”
Shakespeare's Most Popular Plays
1:55:20 to 1:57:36
A light-hearted discussion about the most read plays of Shakespeare.
“yeah yeah yeah anyhow okay talking about okay back to the facts Jared Jared rare things this is this is Sim and it's a ding, ding, ding.”
The Influence of Rumors on History
1:57:37 to 1:59:28
Exploring how rumors shape perceptions of historical figures like Hitler.
“I think so there's still time maybe my Broadway debut I was also in Trojan I was offered a Broadway play not too long ago and I thought that's crazy they offered this to me.”
Financial Insights into College Football
1:59:29 to 2:03:23
Analyzing the financial dynamics of college football teams and their profitability.
“I'm not mad at you for telling me the rumor.”
Understanding the Manger
2:03:24 to 2:04:34
Clarifying the meaning of a manger and its significance in the nativity story.
“Which is a big stone or wooden square that's containing horses, cattle, hay, and donkeys.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Welcome, welcome, welcome to Armchair Expert Experts on Expert. I'm Dan Shepard and I'm joined by Lily Padman. Hi. Today we have, which is a great honor for the second time, but this time in the flesh, Jared Diamond. Jared Diamond is a scientist, historian, a professor, and a Pulitzer Prize winning author. I mean, this guy started in the physiology department, then he became the head of the geography department. Talk about a polymath. He's an ornithologist. mythologist. I mean, he's one of the smartest people we've talked to. Yeah, he really is. His most famous book, of course, Legendary, Guns, Germs, and Steel.
0:35If you have not read that book, it is phenomenal. Everyone should read that book. Collapse, the third chimpanzee, the world until yesterday, upheaval, and his new book out now called Prophets, Prophets, Coaches, and Kings, When Do Leaders Matter? This was so interesting. It's so fascinating. Spoiler, there's not one thing that we can predict an effective leader on. There's many, many things that contribute to whether or not they are. Please enjoy Jared Diamond. We get support from Quince. You know what I think about a lot? The stuff in my closet, I actually wear. Like not the trendy pieces, the sweater that goes with everything or the pants that fit perfectly, the tee you kind of just throw on without even thinking.
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4:16Oh my goodness, you're already here.
4:18Jared Diamond:Yes, I am. How are you, sir? I'm good. How are you? Good. Wonderful to see you in real life. Hi. How are you? Last time we were Zoom, right? Yeah, we were. I think we were Zoom. I think. If you recall. Yes, I do. My sons reminded me. That's their role. In your life? I have two daughters that I'm hoping will take over much of my cognition as I get older. How old are your daughters? 11 and 13. You are in the eye of the storm. Thank you for saying that. I feel a little alone in the eye of the storm currently. We got through it okay. We have twins. They're 39 years old. Oh, wow. Nothing terrible went wrong.
5:01Jared Diamond:In their teens, they wanted more to spend time with their friends and not just alone with their boring parents. Eventually, when they were committed to bring along their friends, they tolerated their boring parents. Right. Jared, I'm so happy to have you in person as an anthro major at your school. Of course, Guns, Germs, and Steel. It's in the Selfish Gene Bible-like canon of things we worship. And so it was a great honor to interview you the first time. but we were over Zoom and now we get to sit together as if I got to take one of your classes in real life. So your first huge book was, as I just said, Guns, Germs and Steel.
5:41It really addressed this question of why were Europeans so successful at taking over the rest of the planet? Were they the product of great special men or were they simply the recipients of great geography, which is what the conclusion of the book was, right?
5:58Jared Diamond:Right. In effect, why are you and I now talking English on the land of Native Americans instead of in London they're talking Nahuatl, the language of the Aztec Empire? Why did it turn out that way? Right. But this book now is interestingly kind of coming at a similar question, which is leaders. What makes a great leader? How relevant are leaders? Are they, as Tolstoy said, are they the passengers of history? Or are they like Carlyle said, history has been shaped by great men, which is true? And if so, when and why is it true and when and why is it not true? Is that a succinct premise of the book?
6:40Jared Diamond:Exactly. The book is not about which is true. It's instead a typical Jared Diamond response. It depends. And so I look at factors. There are about six factors that enable one to explain why leaders some do or don't make a difference. We'll get to go through a lot of specific leaders in four different domains, politics, history, sports, religion, and business. These are the four silos we're going to evaluate leadership, right? But I think first we should know what are the factors that we think contribute to a great leader. First of all, timing, being the right time and place. Some leaders can control their time and place.
7:23Jared Diamond:Bill Gates, when he saw the cover issue of Popular Electronics in, what was it, January 1976, he had been talking with Paul Allen about developing a personal computer, but kept telling Paul the time isn't right. And when he saw that cover, he said, now is the right time, we've got to act fast. So some leaders choose their time and place. Some leaders can't choose their time and place, but they recognize they're at the right time and place. So I see the finest hour of Winston Churchill. Winston Churchill, in the concluding paragraph of Gathering Storm, the first of those six volumes, Churchill said when he had been appointed prime minister, I knew that this was the moment towards which my life had been pointing.
8:04Jared Diamond:He didn't make that. It was the week of Dunkirk. Churchill did not cause Germany to invade France, but Germany's invasion of France did result in Chamberlain's resigning and Churchill becoming prime minister. So he knew it was the right time, but he didn't make it. And then finally, Mark Zuckerberg was at the right time and place, but he didn't know it. He was born in 1984 for reasons beyond his control. The result was that he was a sophomore at Harvard in 2004, which because of changes in the Internet, there had been social media before. And that was the perfect time to have found big social media.
8:41And he was at the perfect location. Harvard had this cachet. People wanted the Harvard EDU. You know, there was a lot of layers on it.
8:48Jared Diamond:You're exactly right. So time and place is one factor. Another factor is what in the book I call discretion, which does not mean behaving discreetly, but means having the power to make decisions. For example, mayors have much less power to make decisions than do governors. Governors have less power than do presidents. Democratic presidents have less power than do dictators. Democratic presidents in wartime and war power than in peacetime. Or in the business world, it's interesting, CEOs of public utilities don't have much power because public utilities are tightly regulated. The CEOs with the greatest power are CEOs of perfume companies and teenage t-shirt companies.
9:33Jared Diamond:A friend of mine is the CEO of a teenage t-shirt company. He's a billionaire because when And he recognizes what will be the trend two weeks from now. He has the complete power to churn out those T-shirts. So he's a billionaire. You point out that if you're the CEO of some power or water system, the innovations happened. You're pretty much overseeing a system that has probably made most of the changes it's ever going to make. There's not going to be a lot of crucial pivots that have to be made. So yeah, the more cutting edge the technology, the more flexible the company has to be, then those CEOs are much more relevant.
10:12Jared Diamond:Right. Even in sports, on the average, a coach of a college team has more discretion than the coach of a professional team. Because with a professional team, the players are there for longer. They have more power. And the professional team has an owner and a general manager. So on the average, college coaches have more discretion. That's a third factor. So timing and place, discretion, how much power do you actually have? A fourth consideration is whether or not you are the founder. The founder of a country like George Washington or Lee Kuan Yew. The founder of a country sets the institutions for good or bad that are likely to continue for quite a while.
10:51Jared Diamond:So founders, and similarly founders in the business world, have more discretion. That's a fourth factor. Fifth factor is that a leader who sees that the public should be doing something that the public doesn't want to do, but convinces, gets the public to do it. Franklin Roosevelt recognized that the United States had to prepare for war, but the American public did not want to prepare for war. But because he saw it and he gradually nudged the government in that direction, he had more influence than a leader who was doing what the public wanted. The thing I find most impressive in the list is the leader who can convince people to do things they don't want to do.
11:32That to me seems like a very esteemable triumph if you can convince people to do things they don't want. Well, esteemable if it's a good thing that they're trying to get them to do. True, true, true. That's right. In the FDR sense.
11:43Jared Diamond:And you know, another example, Charles de Gaulle. De Gaulle, the last thing the French wanted to do in 1958 was to pull out of Algeria. But de Gaulle recognized that they had to pull out of Algeria, and he got to do it in a tricky way. He began by saying, we will not pull out of Algeria until after there have been no terrorist acts for nine months. And then he said, we are not going to get out of Algeria until there have been no terrorist acts for five months. And so eventually he said, and now we're getting out of Algeria. So we got the French to do what they didn't want to do. Then finally, the last thing on my list of six is that a leader who does not have outstanding colleagues, Clement Attlee produced the biggest change in social policies in Britain in the 20th century, but he's not nearly as famous as Winston Churchill.
12:30Jared Diamond:because Clement Attlee had about five cabinet members, all of whom were skilled and talented, and they shared the glory. If Attlee hadn't done it, one of those five would have done it. So that's the sixth reason. If you have the misfortune, each of you have an outstanding colleague. Yes, yes, yes. We're going to have to share that glory, which we do. But we left out the most important one that comes up most often in the book, I think, which is this thing you label the Hamlet test. So explain the Hamlet test. The Hamlet test is a test that leaders rarely pass. People think he or she, she or he, is the only person who could do it.
13:15Jared Diamond:Well, in a country of 340 million people, the United States, it's hard to make an argument that Jeff Bezos was the only one of 340 million Americans who could found Amazon. But in the case of Botswana, a tiny colony of one million, where at the time of independence, there were only 22 college graduates. They had seven miles of paved road in the entire country. That's right. And on top of that, of those 22 college graduates, Sretzi Kama was the chief of the most powerful tribe. And so he was the only chief who could get away with abolishing the power of the chiefs. And on top of that, it was on his tribe's land that were found the diamonds that made the wealth of Botswana.
13:59Jared Diamond:So he was the only chief who could get away with giving away the tribe's diamonds and saying that they were national treasures. He was both the president and the chief of this very important tribe. So, yes, he had to have so many things. That's similar to the competition one, I feel, or sharing the glory. It's like if it's only you. And you're the only person. And so the reason you call it the Hamlet Test, and I don't know that people would necessarily know this history, but explain why Hamlet is relevant. Sure. People will necessarily not know the history. Hamlet is often regarded as the greatest play in the English literature.
14:31Jared Diamond:So Shakespeare wrote Hamlet. Was Shakespeare the only person who could write Hamlet? Well, in this case, I call it the Hamlet Test because this is one of those rare cases where there aren't another 340 million people to consider. To write Hamlet, first of all, you had to have a track record of writing other plays. first. Hamlet was Shakespeare's 22nd play, and he'd already written good plays like Romeo and Juliet and Julius Caesar. But also, to write Hamlet, you had to have a London theatre company, and Shakespeare had the best theatre company, the best theatre in London. So there were only about two dozen outstanding Elizabethan dramatists.
15:09Jared Diamond:We know every one of them, and we've got their plays, so we can read their plays and decide whether their plays were as good as Hamlet. None of them wrote plays that are as good as Hamlet. So that's why I call it the Hamlet test. We know all of the other candidates. Whereas in the case of Jeff Bezos, we can't name all 340 million Americans who might have done what he did. Yeah. Right. Okay. So let's start where the book kind of starts. And this is, again, probably not a very well-known story about Hitler. But in 1930, years before he becomes chancellor, he is being driven in a car in the passenger seat by a chauffeur and a large truck that is speeding towards them.
15:48The impact seems inevitable. The chauffeur floors it. They narrowly avoid what would have probably been the death of Adolf Hitler years before he was chancellor. So then this brings this tasty question. Would Germany have had this trajectory without Adolf Hitler? How do we work through this counterfactual fantasy?
16:06Jared Diamond:So I was born in 1937, which means that I grew up in the world of Hitler. And on top of that, my family is from Europe on both sides. My wife is from Poland. The last of my family in Europe and half of my wife's family in Poland disappeared in the Holocaust. In the case of my wife's family, we know that one of them died. My wife's father's father was killed on the train to Auschwitz. My wife's mother survived Auschwitz with legacies. So in the case of Hitler, historians debate, would World War II and the Holocaust have happened if there had not been Hitler? They write biographies. The trouble with writing biographies is all biographers have to recount the same facts.
16:50Jared Diamond:And most biographers conclude he made a difference. But then A.J.P. Taylor, perhaps the best-known British historian of the post-war period, concluded using the same facts. Hitler was a normal German politician who did what any German politician would have done. And so Hitler did not make a difference. Biographers would argue that Hitler did make a difference because he was way out of line in his anti-Semitism. There were plenty of German anti-Semites, but none proposed industrial-scale extermination. He was the most charismatic speaker for good or for evil. He was infinitely above even Winston Churchill in his charisma.
17:30Jared Diamond:He also was amazingly skilled as a deceiver of people. He's famous for having deceived Neville Chamberlain at Munich. But on top, he deceived German industrialists, and he deceived German generals, and he deceived his fellow Nazis. He was a great deceiver. So those are the reasons why most biographers believe that Hitler made a difference, but A.J.P. Taylor didn't. So how can one settle it? The method that can bring conclusions is the method that I call natural experiments. So I trained in medical physiology. I worked in the laboratory. Chemists, molecular biologists, they work in the laboratory and they discover things by means of controlled manipulative experiments.
18:19Jared Diamond:Meaning you've got two batches of test tubes and one you pour or die in and the other you don't pour. You've set up the experiment yourself. If we social scientists were permitted to do such experiments, I would run around since World War II killing 47 prime ministers and not killing 200 prime ministers. And then I would do the statistics, and quickly I would know whether prime ministers made a difference. Well, that's not nice, and it's illegal, and it's immoral. But history has done that experiment for me. Namely, since World War II, there have been 47 prime ministers who died natural deaths of cancer and heart disease, and Harold Holt drowned.
18:56Jared Diamond:And then there are about 200 prime ministers who didn't die natural deaths. But we can compare the outcomes, and the numbers are so high that we can do statistics on it. or in the business world, if I wanted to see whether CEOs make a difference. I could experimentally kill CEOs, but it's not nice, but let's be less drastic. Instead of killing CEOs, we will kill their first-degree relatives. If CEOs make a difference, they'll get upset. But if CEOs don't make a difference, who cares whether they get upset? And in fact, it happens. When the spouse or the only child of a CEO dies, the CEO really gets upset and the business income goes way down.
19:37Jared Diamond:The next worse is if a sibling of a CEO dies, the CEO gets upset but not quite upset. And yes, these earnings go down. Proportionally. Interesting. The punchline of this is amazing. If a parent dies, you get upset but you expect parents to die. So the earnings go down but less. If your in-law dies, your mother-in-law or your father-in-law. If mother-in-law dies, that's the only death which produces that increase in earnings. But the sample size is small, the effect is small, and it's not quite statistically significant. That's very funny. What it means is that without being permitted to do the manipulative experiment, We can analyze the natural experiment that relatives of various degrees of closeness die.
20:28Jared Diamond:And those deaths, psychologists will tell us, that some of those deaths are a bigger blow than other deaths. So that's the natural experiment. So let's go through some of the columns. We touched on it for a second, but if we start with politics and history, I cannot pronounce his name, but Kama? Cerezi Kama. Cerezi Kama, who we talked about, I think, sufficiently. If we added up the fact that he was the first president of a brand new nation that was incredibly poor, didn't have a lot of college educated folks, didn't have paved roads, had no foreseeable access to money or resources. He's unique.
21:03He makes some unique decisions. Yeah, he keeps around some British administrators that have a lot of experience with administration and bureaucracy. That's kind of a rare choice that he makes. Once they discovered the diamonds, as we talked about, he is in this position to grant all of those mineral rights to the people of the country. He proves that he's an extraordinary leader and that he is unusually high discretion. Anything he says pretty much goes. And crucial decisions plus some favorable circumstances and perfect timing makes him an enormously impactful individual. And then maybe to counter him, let's talk about Rachel Carson.
21:38Who is Rachel Carson?
21:39Jared Diamond:The two science books in the last 170 years that made the biggest impact on the world were Darwin's Origin of Species, Rachel Carson's Silent Spring. Rachel Carson's book Silent Spring about the damage to lands and to animals and to people caused by toxic chemicals. Jumpstarted the environmental revolution. Now, Rachel Carson was unique. She passed the Hamlet test as Saretzikama. She was uniquely qualified to do it because she was a scientist, so other scientists answered her letters. From childhood on, she wrote prose, but she read the prose back to herself. She listened to it, so she was a writer, but she was also a poet whose writing style is still the most beautiful writing style of scientists today.
22:33She could have just been a beautiful novelist, but also had this biology background.
22:39Jared Diamond:Right. Compared to the best other science, right? Richard Dawkins, who is terrific. Paul Ehrlich, who was terrific. Rachel Carson's writing style is still much better because she read it back and she listened to it with the ear of a poet. Two other advantages of Rachel Carson. She was not a university professor. In those days, if you were a university professor writing for the public, that was really bad because it meant you're writing for the public because your career is washed up and you're prostituting yourself, so you turn to writing for the public. It's still the case today. Really? The only time UCLA denied me a promotion was when I won the Pulitzer Prize.
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23:16Oh, my God.
23:17Jared Diamond:Which proved that I was prostituted. What? That's crazy. It is crazy, but that's academia. Can you answer the psychology behind that? I mean, I understand publishing in peer-reviewed journals and that that's the high watermark for anyone under their employ. They're trying to get their university to have massive cachet. So the more peer-reviewed journal published, the higher that rises. But why does a book for the public diminish that? Partly it's envy. Sure. So someone who writes a successful book for the public is doing what other academics would like to do, although they won't admit it. And it's also the case that there's a belief that if you're writing a book for the public, it's because you can no longer write good papers that get 32 citations in the Journal of Planetary and Earth Science.
24:06Jared Diamond:And nobody reads it except 31 other planetary scientists. Yeah, exactly. So there's a feeling that if you're writing a book for the public, you're doing it because you're all washed up. And since you're all washed up, you prostitute yourself. But Rachel Carson with her beautiful writing style, a man who wrote with a beautiful writing style, who wrote like a poet, everybody would be suspicious about that man. Rachel Carson is a woman. It's okay for a woman to write with a beautiful writing style. And so for all those reasons, Rachel Carson, I think, passes the Hamlet death, was uniquely qualified to write Silent Spring.
24:42Also what was relevant, she really exposed DDT as being the big chemical that we later found out was what was killing, right? The bald eagles. And so that gets to Kennedy, this book. And then all of a sudden we have the EPA and we do outlaw DDT, which is great.
24:55Jared Diamond:In the case of, in the business world, do you drink pomegranate juice? I don't personally, but I'm very, very aware of it. Pomegranates were domesticated something like 4 ,000 BC. They've been around for a long time. Yes, you can get juice out of them in Middle Eastern markets until the year 2002. There was no pomegranate juice industry in the U.S. In the Middle East, you could go to a Saturday market and the salesman would cut open a pomegranate and squeeze a glass of pomegranate. But there was no pomegranate juice industry. The reason is that they're hard. Much of the medical benefit and much of the flavor is in the rind.
25:30Jared Diamond:But you can't do it like an orange, cutting it in half and squeeze it. Instead, to make pomegranate juice, you need literally a three-story press that can grind this really hard stuff and get the juice out of it. Well, as of 2002, pomegranates being Mediterranean climate, pomegranates were grown in the United States, only in California, and there were about 22 pomegranate farmers in California. Of those 22 pomegranate farmers, 21 were ordinary, poor farmers, so they did not launch a pomegranate juice industry. But Linda Resnick ran a company, a successful company. She had lots of money. Her husband invested some of the money in buying acreage in the Central Valley so that they're now the largest agricultural landowners in California.
26:16Jared Diamond:And he discovered that on his land were 125 pomegranate trees about which he knew nothing. But Linda Resnick read about them and learned that they might have medical value. So she invests$150 million in learning what the medical value is. And then they build this three-story press because they've got other products. So in 2002, they launched the pomegranate juice industry, whereupon Coca-Cola and Nestle jump in and start producing fake pomegranate juice. So they spend another$120 million suing Coca-Cola and so on in the Supreme Court. These other 22 farmers, first of all, they don't have the$150 million, but on top of that, they have tiny fractions of the market.
26:54Jared Diamond:Even if they had$150 million, it wouldn't be worth spending$150 million if you only have a tiny fraction of the market. But the Resnicks had produced half the pomegranate juice in the United States, plus they had the money, Plus, their company was not a public stock company whose stockholders would have said, for heaven's sakes, don't waste our money. Yeah, some unproven beverage in the already oversaturated beverage market. That's right. They controlled their money. And so it took them 18 years to make a profit on it. It was not a way to get rich. They got rich in other ways. But they passed the Hamlet test because out of those 22 pomegranate farmers, They were the only ones who controlled enough of the market and who had enough money and who had the money themselves, not as a stock company, that they could lose money on pomegranates for 18 years.
27:42Yeah, there's likely never a pomegranate beverage without her. She has this kink about finding medicinal outcomes for existing ripe plants and fruits. Like, you got to have her weird interest in that to then bring this thing to market. Stay tuned for more Armchair Expert, if you dare. We get support from YouTube Premium. Okay, I got to tell you something. I just got YouTube Premium this year, and it's completely enhanced how I use YouTube. I already liked YouTube for obvious reasons. I'm watching all my car stuff on there. Everything's on there. And thought, how could YouTube get any better? Well, Premium has awesome features like offline downloads.
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32:09Before we move into businesses, I just want to say or ask you, You do survey 22 modern political leaders, Churchill, Mandela, Mao, Idi Amin, a bunch. What patterns emerge when you look at these 22 modern political leaders?
32:25Jared Diamond:Certainly all of them had discretion. Some of them were dictators. Some of them were wartime leaders, Winston Churchill. Some of them were founders, Nelson Mandela and Lee Kuan Yew. Those are things shared among them. But there was one thing she had among them that I hadn't expected. I noticed when I went over the table. Of those 22 founders, there were only two who retired voluntarily, Nelson Mandela and Lee Kuan Yew. The other 20 founders didn't retire voluntarily. They committed suicide like Hitler, or they got assassinated like Anwar Sadat, or they got voted out of office like Winston Churchill.
33:05Jared Diamond:So what it means is that once you become an outstanding political leader and you've developed a high opinion of yourself, you're not likely to lose that high opinion of yourself and step down voluntarily. That was a surprise for me. Yeah, that's interesting. Yeah, it's a good bit of knowledge that we should keep in mind if and when we ever get a charismatic leader that we all love. We need to go, and this person will never show themselves the way out. I mean, that's part of the reason we have term limits, right, on presidents. But that's why they're so crucial, because we know none of them will leave voluntarily.
33:40Jared Diamond:Well, two out of 20. But Nelson Mandela, he was 90 years old. And Lee Kwan knew he'd been in office for 40 years. 40 years is enough. Yeah, I mean, they left, but come on. I mean, they also didn't leave. Okay, so when we look at business, you have Bezos, Zuckerberg, Gates, and Musk not passing the Hamlet test. None of them passed the Hamlet test. Let me be clear. I don't enjoy this man's personality, but I have to say after reading the book on Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson, I find him largely repugnant. But also any industry he has entered, he has had impossible success. When you're reading that book, you're thinking Tesla, but you're forgetting that he started open AI.
34:26He also has SpaceX, which is the most successful. And then he had prior to that, the money exchange thing he had. You don't think he's unique in his Shakespearean skill set?
34:37Jared Diamond:If he is, it's impossible to prove it because we were, Shakespeare was one of, what, 20 Elizabethan dramatists. Elon Musk, he was one of 320 million Americans. How can you go through all of those 320 million Americans the way you can go through the 21 other Shakespearean dramatists? And one by one you say, no, he couldn't, she couldn't, she couldn't. But we have 10 ,000 known engineers, mechanical engineers. By all means, in your spare time, please go through those 10 ,000 mechanical engineers. It'll be more difficult than going through Shakespeare's 21 contemporaries, and it hasn't been done.
35:13Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. It doesn't please me to announce this, but I do think he is an Edison-like figure.
35:20Jared Diamond:That's possible. Yeah, but there's also other competitors in the market. So it's not like Tesla's the only one. If it was still the only one, maybe you could say that. But I feel like it still was a revolution apart from him. Yeah, I mean, SpaceX still one of one. You've got Bezos trying to do it. But SpaceX is very one of one. And then the satellite network he somehow launched is five thousands. I mean, it's astronomical what this one human being has accomplished. But maybe in history, through the lens of history, we will be better able to gauge whether or not he was an Edison or just at the right place at the right time.
35:58Jared Diamond:Right, and of the other big four, Steve Jobs and Bill Gates, et cetera, they were all undoubtedly very talented people. Were they less outstanding, less unique than Elon Musk? Maybe, but it's not possible to make the argument the way you can for Shakespeare unless in your remaining years you wish to go through those 10 ,000 of them. No, I'm far too into boating. Okay, so you took a very quantitative look at whether CEOs matter. We scratched it a little bit. But let's talk about when CEOs die, what happens. We have some good data on that. When CEOs die, the best data set is for Denmark. It's a small country.
36:43Jared Diamond:There are only 76 ,000 businesses in Denmark, 76 ,000 CEOs. A professor at Copenhagen Business School, since he went through 76 ,000, You go there with your 10 ,000. So when CEOs die, the business earnings drop. That's on the average. Like 13 % within two years is the number in the book. Something like that, yeah. Showing that CEOs have some effect. But is the CEO the only person who affects the earnings of a company? And there it's clear no. Again, these professors at business schools have looked at the factors that affect company earnings. There are four. Perhaps the first thing you would think of is the year.
37:24Jared Diamond:1930 was a bad year to run a stock company in the United States, the year of the Depression. 2008 was not a good year in the United States. So the year makes a difference. Second thing that makes the difference, of course, is the company. Procter & Gamble has been a very well-run company for 150 years, and CEO after CEO, there are some industries that are profitable. When you do the statistics, it turns out that the CEO and the individual company and the industry are roughly equal in accounting for roughly one-third of profits. And the individual year, despite 1930, on the average accounts for only between 1 % and 6 % of profits.
38:11Jared Diamond:So that's a case where statisticians can break down the relative importance of those four factors. In conclusion, if a CEO comes along and says, my business has made$100 billion this year, so the least you can do is pay me a lousy few billion dollars, I'm the only person who could have done it. The response to that is, on the average, you account for one-third of company earnings, but that's on the average. Maybe you're the CEO who accounts for 80 % of company earnings, but stockholders shouldn't routinely swallow the line that CEOs account for most of company earnings. They don't. Some do, but most don't.
38:51Jared Diamond:In most cases, we can say certainly one can debate Elon Musk. But in the other big four, Steve Jobs and Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg. Or even Steve Jobs. Even Steve Jobs. Kind of a, what would we describe people's feeling about him? Like a mythical. He has kind of a mythical aura. Despite their undoubted talents, the fact is that other people founded successful companies in their spheres. Their companies ran in different ways. So what one can say about these big five, even Elon Musk, is that at minimum they put their stamp on the way an industry operated. Other people also were successful in the industry, but they ran in a different way.
39:39Jared Diamond:And for example, so there were companies that tried to sell everything before Jeff Bezos. Yeah, Sears and Robach, Kmart, Walmart. eBay, but they operated in a different way. They didn't operate online. And then after Bezos, Walmart then got into the everything store. So what one can say about him and about all five of them is that they may not have passed the Hamlet test. But what they did do is put their stamp on an industry, caused an industry to develop in a distinctive way. How can leaders make a difference? Some leaders can uniquely do something that nobody else could have done at all. Shakespeare with Hammett, Linda Resnick.
40:21Jared Diamond:But most leaders achieve something that other leaders could have achieved, but the leaders achieved it in a distinctive way and put their stamp on a country or on a business. Right. I mean, that's good. it means more people have that option. If everyone has to pass the Hamlet test, that's not possible. Let's talk about sports, and this is fun for both of us. So let's talk about John Wooden. Will you talk a little bit about him and what he accomplished at UCLA? Sure. John Wooden is generally regarded as the greatest coach in American sports in the last century and maybe the greatest coach in any country.
40:58Before John Wooden, I was born in 1937, So the major sports when I was growing up were baseball, I was in the year Boston, the great Ted Williams, and football.
41:10Jared Diamond:Basketball was a comparatively minor sport. John Wooden gets a large share of the credit for making basketball a major sport up there with football. He was a master of detail, the detail that he went to. Not only did he teach his players how to dribble, he taught them how to roll up their socks. makes a difference how you roll up your socks. His practices, they went for two and a half or three hours, and he would tell his play, run that play. And then at the end, he would say, run it again faster, run it again faster, faster, faster. The practices were faster than the game by design. That's right.
41:46Jared Diamond:Which is crazy. You practice a little lighter than you play the game in general. He emphasized being in peak physical condition. So when UCLA played against Duke for the NCAA, Duke's players averaged 6 '8". UCLA players averaged six foot four, but UCLA players couldn't jump higher than Duke players. So UCLA won. He was a great psychologist. He understood individual players. On top of that, he was great at getting people to work together. But then perhaps the most important thing about him that in fact, his own players emphasized, they said, yes, he was a great basketball coach, but he was the most important person in my life other than my mother and father, because for him, basketball wasn't a game.
42:31Jared Diamond:Basketball was a metaphor for life. And so what his players learned out of playing basketball was, yes, to achieve success in basketball, but also to achieve success in life. And that's something that you can't fake. Yes, there were other great basketball coaches. Bobby Knight, who was not a nice person as was John Wooden, but nobody would say that Bobby Knight was a metaphor for how to operate life. Yeah, yeah. How to handle oneself in public. Yeah, a couple of unique things he did. Well, first of all, he won 10 national championships, which is bonkers. But he, unlike these other dictators who, and this will be towards the end, we learn they fell because there's no feedback for them.
43:13He was in a position to be quite strong-headed, but when they had a losing season, he went back to the drawing board and made this realization that these subs weren't playing enough minutes to be good. And when he had a player like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, he changed the game to suit him. He was flexible and was endlessly on a path of kind of discovery and curiosity, and I think that's quite unique about him. He could have gotten set in his ways and said, no, no, I know how to win. Kareem, you'll play the way I play, you know.
43:44Jared Diamond:He was a thinking coach. And as you say, in that, I think it was 14th year at UCLA when his team did not well. Instead of blaming his players, he spent a lot of time figuring out what had gone wrong. OK, and now you take down these universities in a very fun way, which is now statistically, how much do coaches change outcomes? Let's talk about the actual power of the coach. The number is similar to that 30 % for CEOs. Coaches make a difference, but they don't make the entire difference as they think. What other things make a difference? Having a great player with your team. But that's not enough.
44:23The amount of money that the school puts in.
44:26Jared Diamond:Alabama puts huge amounts of money into their football team. UCLA doesn't. Alabama pays its coach three times what UCLA pays its coach. the facilities. UCLA has a much better basketball court, Pauley Pavilion, than does USC, but USC has better football practice facilities, with the result that USC is better in football and UCLA is better in basketball, all of which means that the coaches make a difference, but they don't make an overwhelming difference. And the proof of this is that if UCLA's chancellor and if UCLA's athletic director had seen fit to ask me or to read my book, our athletic department would not now be $155 million in debt from having fired basketball coach after coach after coach after coach.
45:12And you got to buy out their contract. That's bad. And then you get into this incredible statistic in the book, which is when researchers compare poorly performing teams that fire their coach with equally poor teams that retain theirs, both groups tend to improve by roughly the same amount. Interesting. That's right.
45:30Jared Diamond:It's like throwing dice. There's no skill involved in getting six. It's just pure chance. Coaches make some difference, but they're closer to the throwing dice end. Because they're already great. The coach UCLA brings in presumably is already top-tier coach. Presumably. And in fact, our basketball coaches, I think all of our basketball coaches since John Wooden, have had winning records of like 65 or 70 percent. Any other school would be thrilled out of their minds to have every one of our basketball coaches, every one of whom we fired. 100 % of the coaches since Wooden have been fired. That's crazy.
46:06Jared Diamond:They didn't live up to Wooden. Part of it is the culture, too, right? Like in the South, football is the culture. So schools are going to put a lot of money in there because they make a lot of money there. But I have to add to that that UCLA's football and basketball coaches were the highest paid or the second highest paid employees of the state of California. Oh, my. Of the whole state? Of the whole – of all employees of the state of California. And our chancellor, the salary of our chancellor is one-tenth of the salary of our basketball and football coaches. That tells you something. It tells you that Adam Smith was right and market forces are strong.
46:50Okay, let's talk about religion because religion, to me, seems like the greatest place to evaluate charisma.
46:57Jared Diamond:Yeah. Because obviously most religions, if not all, were started by a charismatic prophet who was claiming some kind of revelation. So let's start with Joseph Smith. Let's talk about him a little bit. Joseph Smith, founder of Mormon religion. But let's place him in context. So within the last 200 years, there have been four new religions that have spread around the world. Which are they? Mormon religion, Seventh-day Adventists, Jehovah's Witnesses, and Christian science. All four of those are American religions. But there have been new religions founded in other places. The Mahdi of the Sudan in the late 1800s founded a new religion which expanded over northeast Africa but didn't expand around the world.
47:40Jared Diamond:Why is it that all four of the new religions of the last 150 years that have spread worldwide were American religion? I think that it's a no-brainer. The United States had the economic power and we eventually had the military power, the Mormon religion. Every Mormon man and Mormon women have the option, but every Mormon man is required to spend two years of his life at age 18 proselytizing. On mission. And if he doesn't have much money, then you go on mission 70 miles away. But if you have enough money, you go overseas to Europe and to the Pacific. And that's enabled the Mormon religion, because it's derived from the wealthy United States, to become a worldwide religion.
48:21Jared Diamond:Now, it's true that the founders of all four of those religions were charismatic. In other spheres of leadership, charisma is not the only way to become an effective leader. Augusto Pinochet, the vile dictator of Chile, he was not charismatic in the least. Or Stalin, not charismatic. They terrified people. So there are other ways besides charisma to become a leader in politics. But in religion, the only way to start becoming a leader is to be charismatic. But charisma isn't enough. There are all these charismatic New Guineans and others who found religions in New Guinea, but their religions don't go anywhere.
48:58Jared Diamond:For religion to go somewhere, the religion has to have what I'd call an economic and demographic engine. The leader of a religion or leaders need at least two qualities and maybe three. You have to have charisma or you go nowhere. You also have to be or have a great organizer. So the Christian religion, Christ wasn't a great organizer. I mean, he was killed too early. We don't know how he would have been as an organizer. I heard his room was messy. Uh-uh.
49:27St.
49:28Jared Diamond:Paul was the organizer of Christianity. In the case of Islam, there Mohammed was not only a charismatic, but he was a great organizer. And in the case of the Mahdi of the Sudan, he was a fantastic organizer as well as charismatic. The third thing that a religion may need is it may need a general and an army because religions often face resistance. The Christians did not attempt to fight back because the Roman army was too strong. But the Mormon religion did fight back. The Mormon religion had its own army. Bring them young. Stay tuned for more Armchair Expert, if you dare. We are supported by Arm & Hammer Toothpaste, Monica.
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50:50It's gentler than a lot of what's on the shelf. You've been a longtime devotee of Arm & Hammer. We've talked on here. It's your religion, Arm & Hammer. I have never stood so firmly by a product in perhaps my entire life. Well, look, if it's removing stains while keeping enamel intact, let's go. They also have different kinds. They have the Advanced White. They have PeroxyCare, which is my personal favorite. They have CompleteCare, and they have TheraBreath. So you'll find the one that's right for you. It's also the number one dentist recommended baking soda toothpaste. So it's not just us saying this.
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52:41The weather is perfect in fall. Warm, sunny, no humidity. And you can really do whatever you want with your time there. I want to do a sunrise hike through the Sonoran Desert. Be surrounded by saguaro, and then at the same afternoon, just completely melt into a spa treatment at one of their luxury resorts. Oh, that sounds amazing. I want to do that. Also, I was there visiting my brother once, and I loved Old Town Scottsdale. It's so walkable. They have galleries and cute little restaurants and shops. The food scene alone is worth the trip. What I keep reading is that it's luxurious, but not stuffy.
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54:24Jared Diamond:After the death of Joseph Smith, Brigham Young became the organizer. You see in the book, you know, Joseph Smith gets a lot of the credit in the acknowledgement, but without Brigham Young, he's the one who really takes it to a place where we can have the infrastructure and have the mission and have the capital and resources. Like, Joseph needs him, or we don't really have Mormonism, probably. That's right. This just illustrates then that religion needs charismatic founder, absolutely, needs an organizer, absolutely, and sometimes it also needs an army and a general. And in a few cases, the Mahdi of the Sudan and then Mohammed, Those two fulfilled all three roles.
55:04Jared Diamond:Mohammed, he was an outstanding organizer, an outstanding general, as well as charismatic family, and similarly the Mahdi. But in the case of Christianity... The only one of the three roles that Christ fulfilled was the charismatic founder. St. Paul was the organizer. And eventually the Roman state was the military. That's right. What about Jim Jones? Let's talk about him. He's always fun to talk about. I was going to say cults have that similar trajectory. Jim Jones was a charismatic—I never met him, but he was described as a charismatic religious leader. I didn't know until reading your book, I didn't realize he was quite legitimate before he was a cult leader.
55:44Jared Diamond:He played a large role in integrating Indianapolis. He was admired because he was anti-racist. He led the movement to desegregate Indianapolis. And so he attracted idealistic people. When he moved to California again, he attracted idealistic people. So he had his positive side. His negative sides were that he eventually went crazy. He was a sexual predator. He was economically dishonest. He was a drug abuser. He drove his entire group to suicide, but he was a charismatic person who was also an outstanding organizer. Was he a general? Close to it. He didn't fight in the United States, but he certainly ensured that Jonestown was well protected militarily.
56:29Yeah, they were well armed, as I recall from the documentary. Let's talk about really quick in our natural experiment that we flirted with at the beginning. Comparing 83 heads of state assassinated since the Second World War with the far larger number of 140 who died of cancer and heart disease, what do we find when these great leaders die? Or consequential leaders, I don't know if I'll say great. What happens when they die?
56:52Jared Diamond:What we find when they die depends upon what the social scientist who did the study is interested in looking at. Namely, the natural experiment gives you a database, and then you can mine that database for anything. So, for example, if you compare prime ministers who die of natural death, die of cancer, with prime ministers who don't die of cancer, you can compare and you can ask multiple questions. Jones and Olson, the first question they asked was, do leaders make a difference economically? And when a leader dies, does the economy of the country suffer or does it improve? So Jones and Olson asked about the effect of leader death on the economy.
57:34Jared Diamond:What they found was that if you compared the economy two years later after the death of a leader with the economy two years later after the non-death of a leader, the leader stays in place. On the average, the economy stays the same because half of economies get better and half of economies get worse because some leaders are good for the economy and some leaders are bad for the economy. When Mao and when the founding leader of Mozambique, when they died, the economy got better. Those were leaders whose deaths improved the economy. So you can use that database to look at the effects on the economy.
58:13Another thing, if a leader dies, and this is wartime, does the death of a leader make it more likely that the war will come to an end?
58:22Jared Diamond:and it turns out that if the leader is a dictator and a dictator dies during wartime, then it is more likely that the war will come to an end because a wartime dictator knows that if the war carries on and he loses the war, he's going to be killed like Mussolini, get killed in an awful way. It's not hard to imagine that if Putin had a heart attack tomorrow morning that the course of Kiev would be much different. The Ukraine war would probably come to a resolution in the absence of Putin. I agree with you, and I'm not permitted to do that experiment, killing Putin. But on top of that, the experiment hasn't happened yet as a natural experiment.
59:04Jared Diamond:But we shall see. Yeah. Okay, two last things. One is, when do leaders matter? And this is an example of discretion plus timing. I mean, there are fun examples where it's like it doesn't really matter how profound your point of view is or your discovery. If you're not timing it correctly, it doesn't really matter. We have some crazy examples from science, do we not? So continental drift and plate tectonics. If you look at a map of the world, you look at the east coast of South America and the west coast of Africa, they fit very well. Suspiciously well. Yeah, yeah. which led Alfred Wegener, a German climatologist, to postulate that the continents had drifted.
59:48Jared Diamond:And it's not just that the fit of South America to Africa suggests. The evidence was somewhat limited. He could not think of a mechanism that would enable continents to drift. He suggested that continents drifted because of the rotation of the Earth, but it became easy to do the numbers and it doesn't work. So Wegener died on an expedition to Greenland in 1930, and he was widely disbelieved. This is something I remember because I was a postdoc at Harvard from 1962 to 1966, just at the time that continental drift was proven. Oh, wow. There were many things that proved it. The two most important things that proved it were lines of seafloor spreading, magnetic reversals, and the other thing was the discovery of magma upwelling, this amazing discovery.
1:00:36Is this where two plates are joining, there's a gap and the magma spurts out?
1:00:41Jared Diamond:It was one of my colleagues at Harvard in 1962 who was the first to see with deep underwater vegles, the first to see on these lines the bubbling up of magma. So Wegner had the right idea, but at the wrong time. The evidence for it came out in the 1960s. And again, the foundation of genetics. Genetics was founded by Austrian monk. Mendel published his paper in 1868. He had it absolutely right, but it was ignored. Not until 1900, three scientists independently were doing similar experiments, and they all rediscovered Mendel's. But Mendel in 1868, it was the wrong time. The world was not ready for Mendel, but the world was ready for these other three people in 1900.
1:01:25Okay, so it's hard not to imagine that you wrote Prophets, Prophets, Coaches, and Kings, When Do Leaders Matter? You wrote it in a certain time and place, and that time and place obviously is at a moment where we have great polarization. We have a very polarizing president. When you, or do you, are you willing to run Trump through these six criteria? And what things do you think he's doing well at? Which ones do we think prevent him from being an incredibly impactful leader?
1:01:57Jared Diamond:I did not run Trump, nor did I run Angela Merkel through my criteria. In fact, I said I will look only at leaders whose careers have come to an end because we can pass judgment. In the last couple of years, our view of Angela Merkel has changed greatly. For the better or worse? I'm unaware of this. For the worse. It's not that she was an evil person, but it's now regarded that her decision to bring one or two million refugees into Germany, she was praised for it. She said, we can do it. Just admirable. Well, they have a far right rising currently. We have a far-right rising party. And it's now recognized that, yes, it was a noble thing to do, but pragmatically, it was not a good idea for Germany economics.
1:02:40Jared Diamond:So that's the reason why I don't discuss any political leader whose career hasn't come to a close. That makes sense. That's totally fair. So business schools, including UCLA Business School, justify their charging tuition of$60 ,000 to$100 ,000. Business schools say, we will teach you how to be a successful CEO, and the way to be a successful CEO is by being charismatic. Well, the trouble is that there are many different ways to be a successful CEO, just as there are many different ways to be a successful politician. Charisma is one way, but there are political leaders and there are business leaders who've not been charismatic.
1:03:17Jared Diamond:Other ways to be successful are to be a master of detail, to terrify people, being a good, good discussion leader, being able to pick good followers. Feedback's got to be important, right? Because as you say, this is the downfall of all dictators is they are no longer subject to feedback, which is dangerous. Yeah, this is something that I know from my own experience running a laboratory because for 40 years, I ran a laboratory doing manipulative experiments on the gallbladder and intestine in the UCLA physiology department. I had about five students. The students were all naturally younger than I, and that meant that they had been trained more recently than I, and my students didn't hesitate to tell me, Jared, you are out of date.
1:04:01Jared Diamond:We've learned more recently, and we've got the better method, so step aside. And I learned to shut up. That's hard to do. Well, Jared, I gotta say it is, again, an enormous honor to get to talk to you. Do you turn 90 next year? I'll be 89 tomorrow. Oh my gosh, happy birthday! Okay, so a year and a day away from 90, I suppose. That's exciting. What a life. Yeah, what a life. I mean, I still love from your first one. He won the MacArthur Foundation Prize. And they were quickly really bummed out that they gave it to him because they found out all he was going to do is continue to look at gallbladder.
1:04:43It's such a joy to get to have some of your time. And I really, really loved your book. You're a very fun writer. There's nothing too dense or academic about it. It's just a very pleasurable book full of lots of funny and fun historical antidotes. It's a great examination. I do think we, just philosophically speaking, I don't know if this is an American thing or a West thing where we prize individuality. I do think we overinflate in general. And if you could say, is there any conclusion at the end of this, studying this? We overinflate how much one person can change the country, the economy, all these incredibly dynamic forces on the planet.
1:05:20Do we not overestimate what one person can do, or do we have it right?
1:05:23Jared Diamond:On the whole, I would say in politics, certainly in the United States, and probably in most democracies, yes, we exaggerate what even a prime minister is capable of doing. It's really hard to change the economy, and if the economy is going well, we give the president credit, and if it's going poorly, we vote against the president. But it is hard for the president to change the economy. It's even harder for a governor and it's hardest of all for a mayor to change the economy. Yeah. And you might take office on the day they announced the global pandemic. What now? How effective can that one person be in that scenario?
1:05:59Well, again, what a pleasure. Jared Diamond, please read Prophets, Prophets, Coaches and Kings. When do leaders matter? It's wonderful. I hope we get to talk to you again on your next book.
1:06:11Jared Diamond:Thank you. Yeah. I do lots of interviews. So I know there are different interviews. and it's a great pleasure to be interviewed by you two. You've done your homework. You express yourself vividly. You understand these matters. You ask good questions. So for me, it's a pleasure to do this interview. Go brewing. Oh, no. He is an armchair expert, but he makes mistakes all the time. Thank God Monica's here. She's got to let him have the facts. I got to tell you. Tell me. Last night, I did about 90 minutes of booking things. We're going to see Metallica. Oh, yeah. At the Sphere. I'm so excited. And then I was like, what else are we going to do?
1:06:53We're going to be there for two nights. Ooh. So I got a reservation at my favorite steakhouse for night of the Metallica show. And then Wabi Wabi helped me get a reservation for best friend. Oh, nice. Aw, Roy Choi. And then how about this left curveball? You coming? You listening? I'm here. I'm like Cirque du Soleil. Let's do that Friday night. Go on to get tickets for Mystere. That's my favorite. I've seen it eight times. Great show. I don't think the boys have seen it. Okay. And I'm on the page for Cirque du Soleil and I'm kind of cruising through. Well, there's so many shows. There's so many different Cirque du Soleil shows.
1:07:31I know. Well, you know what my favorite one is. Oh? Yeah. It's lovely. Water. Love it. Yeah, you're a water sign. No, I'm not. No, I'm not at all. I'm not at a sign. Double earth and a little bit of fire for my rising. Go on. You started that. Well, lo and behold, I see not only is there a Mike Jackson Cirque du Soleil, Michael Jackson. Sure. It's at my hotel. I go, fuck that. I'd rather walk downstairs than cross town. So now we're going to Cirque du Soleil, Michael Jackson. That's fun. What a fucking weekend we're about to have. Wow. This is one of those crazy hard choices. You know, a soapy's choices.
1:08:09if you will. Between Mystere and... Yes, it's like, do you go with something you know you love that you don't get to see that often? And I love passing it on, right? I've taken so many people who've never been to Mystere and I know it works. Yeah. Or something new that's close by. That's in your backyard. Yeah. It's an elevator ride away. I hope it's good. The tickets were more expensive than Mystere, so that makes me think minimally people want to see it more. Maybe you could go on YouTube and just watch like two minutes to make sure people are flying around and it's not just like. I don't want to see an impersonation of Michael Jackson for 90 minutes.
1:08:45And I'm not going to say which one, but I once went to a Cirque show that I was underwhelmed by. Only once. And you're not going to say which one? No, because that's mean. Is it still work? Is it still up and running now? Probably. Okay. I have seen four of them. I've seen Mystere. I've seen Love.
1:09:03Jared Diamond:Oh, the Beatles one. I saw that one twice. Okay. One of my funniest experiences of my life was me and Panay went and we had drank each of us over 100 Diet Cokes that day and the show starts 10 minutes in we peed right before the show 10 minutes in I go to him I go dude so embarrassing I gotta go and he goes oh fucking thank god you said that I'm gonna pee my pants we go we sit back down 12 minutes later I'm like I cannot believe I'm about to tell him this I'm like I gotta fucking go again he's like oh my god I'm so good Monica we peed 6 times in 90 minutes do you think it was psychosomatic? no every time I peed volumes of pee.
1:09:39What? Yeah. Weird. Tons of, tons of girthy urine. Tons of Diet Coke piss. Yeah. Clear as water. No, probably pretty brown. No. Really? No, I just think when you drink that volume of liquid, it flushes out anything that makes your yawn yellow. Interesting. Yeah. I used to kind of be obsessed with that. The color of your yawn? Yeah. I could imagine you and I have different experiences, though. Because you're staring right at it. Oh, no, because I drink so much more fluid than you. Yeah, you do. And so much more water than you. And I pee so much more than you. Yeah. That I almost never have seen, like, orange.
1:10:20Orange. Other than that time I had the catheter and they put a dye in there. Yeah. And I hated seeing that orange yawn in the bag. Of course. No one likes that. No, it's gross. But. Unless you have anyone listening who's got orange yawn. Yeah, let's be nice. Yeah, you're beautiful. It's a pretty color Beautiful baby Amber But you're also like You're peeing Where you can look Straight into the toilet I got a great view Of my own Yeah You've got to bend over I turn around You know I pee Well then you evaluate In the bowl Yeah Well then it's already been You can still tell The difference Yeah but it has been Diluted quite a bit By the half gallon Of water in there So think how fucking Orange it was Before you saw it diluted So you see the pee I see raw Oh, yeah.
1:11:03Out of the penis. Oh, wow. Yeah. I pee out of my penis. That's what's unique about me. Tell me more. Yeah. So I'm using that and I can see the yawn. Okay. Yeah. So I know right away before. I don't even got to look in the toilet. I thought this whole time that you were saying Y-A-W-N. Y-A-W-N. Yeah. That's what I thought. Like a yawn. I thought it was like a southern word. Well, it is a southern pronunciation of urine. Urine. Yes. Yawn. Yeah. Okay. Anyway. I know, yeah, I pee sitting down. That's how I pee. And then I wipe. And then I stand up. Take a gander. And then I look. And I'm like, okay.
1:11:41And is the anticipation building like, oh. Like if you're suspicious, it's going to be bad. Yeah. Are you like, oh, no, let's find out. Sometimes I'm like, yikes, I didn't drink water, I wonder. This week. And then sometimes I'm happily surprised. I'm like, oh, I didn't need it. Right. I drank too much, maybe. No, the other day I drank so much water one day that I got a migraine. No, that's not why you got a migraine. But those two things happened. Definitely correlated. It made no sense. I was drinking so much water all day. And then I was like, oh, I'm like getting a headache. Weird. And then it was just like growing and growing.
1:12:26It was so bad. I don't even like hearing about it. If I'm being honest with you, I don't even like hearing about someone having a headache. Really? Because I feel like I'm going to get it. The way that might when I used to have tics and someone was a blinker, it would set it off. I'm like, I don't even want to know about headaches. Okay. Well, this is, you know, you call me a hypochondriac. But I just want to like point the finger. So you had a real throbber. It was so bad. And I was driving home and I was like, I like don't probably shouldn't be driving. Like I am disoriented.
1:12:52Jared Diamond:Wow. And then I took four Advil as soon as I got home. And then I put this like ice pack thing on my head and nothing, it was not working. None of that helped. No. And then I have this thing called, it's like this peppermint oil thing. And you make a halo around your hairline with it. And it just like really tingles in it. And that started to help a little bit. And then I think the Advil kicked in and then, but it was, it was rough. What was the duration of this agony? Good question. Thanks. You ask good questions. Thank you. I don't know. An hour? Longer than that. Two hours. Maybe two. I didn't want to look at my phone a lot.
1:13:31That would hurt, you know? All I can, it makes me remember having hangovers and that I would be laying on my pillow in bed and I'd like keep micro adjusting my head and I'd find this little sliver of space where it's like, oh, there's a little relief. Yeah. And you just try to hold in that exact same spot. And then that goes away and then you got to re... Isn't it crazy? Aren't hangovers crazy that we have them and then we do that again? Sure. Yeah. Like. Price of admission. That's a powerful drug. That it makes your head split. And, I mean, all kinds of things it does. Yeah. All kinds of things.
1:14:10The most curious one is that it would make me crave a filet-o-fish sandwich at McDonald's. Very common. But that doesn't make any sense. I don't like fish. Wait, that's crazy you said that because I was going to bring that up in the last fact check when we were talking about fish and how you hate fish. And now Aaron hates fish. But I was about to say, I can't believe you guys don't even like filet of fish sandwich. I can tell you when I was hungover, I love them. I have never eaten one not hungover. Okay, well, I have a recommendation for you. There's a restaurant, Little Fish. It's in Melrose Hill.
1:14:46It's so good. they have a fish sandwich there that went like they they created it during covid and it was out of their house at first and then it was this pop-up and now it's a restaurant the fish sandwich fried fish sandwich is is a filet of fish basically but just much better ingredients presumably it's so good it is oh my god it's crispy the cheese is so good on it it has some sort of sauce oh my god tartar type tartar type and um you should get it i want you to get it maybe just the next time i feel terrible it won't be hangover hangover induced but you know the filet-o-fish is a few people who i know who are really really big into food it's their favorite food oh really it's like a very interesting thing where's this place located i I don't know what Melrose Hill is.
1:15:44What's that? Melrose Hill. Well, wait till you watch my video. Fishtown? My resi video because it's all about Melrose Hill. Oh, it is? Yeah. Presumably Melrose Boulevard? Between what and what? It's like Western and Melrose-ish. Oh. Where there's like Arc Out. I mean, I'm just wasting the video. You guys just got to watch the vid. Okay. When's the vid drop? I don't know. Okay. But anyway, highly recommend that. What if I was driving down Western tonight with the kids and we were protein Melrose and I was like, I swerved down the side street. I'm like, I can't even find out about what's happening there.
1:16:17We gotta wait for the video, everyone. I'm not supposed to be here. I don't want to know. I gotta wait. Okay, well, that sounds so fun, Vegas. I'm very, very excited about this trip. Oh, you guys are gonna have. With the errands. You're gonna have a great time. I had a less, I don't even, I probably shouldn't tell it. Oh, yeah, let's hear it. No, no, No, because it's like not. It's not becoming of a young woman? It's no. I was shameless about something. Oh. I was shameless about something. But and people will like this. It didn't work out. Oh, OK. OK. OK. OK. I'm going to New York. Yeah. And I as if anyone listened to the Eric Good episode, which is an incredible episode, please listen to that.
1:17:08Yes. He's such an amazing person. Yes. I stayed at the Bowery, my favorite hotel. Yeah. And I went to book my room. Uh-huh. And two days were sold out in the middle. Oof. You had to go to another hotel. Yes, but I was like, wait, what am I going to do now? Like, do I go there, then go to a different one, then come back? Yeah. Do I just forget? Sleep in the lobby for a couple nights? Yeah. Or do I just forget this and go to a different hotel this time? So this, you know, and then I was like, do I dare? Reach out to Eric. Yes. Okay. I did. Okay. His publicist. I reached out to his publicist and I said, I am so embarrassed to do this.
1:18:00Yeah. Especially so soon. But, you know, I'm going to be in New York. I'm trying to book the Bowery and it's saying there are some days that are sold out. I don't know if there's any wiggle room here. Like, I don't know how true that is. You know, like, are there special rooms they keep? My guess is yes. And I was like, I'm really sorry. Like, I know this is upsetting. Yeah. And she was like, of course, let me ask. And no problem. Don't apologize. And I was like, oh, my God. and then he did offer on the air you have that as a defense he did and he offered which was so sweet a friends and family rate which I was not trying to do you weren't trying to get a bargain you just didn't want to sleep in the lobby for a couple nights yeah I just want to go to another hotel I love so so then this morning I wake up to like there's like an email chain that has started and it's like so it's so nice like the person I don't know if I should shout him out.
1:19:07His name is Jeremy. He works with Eric. Yeah. And he's a good guy. Really good guy. Yeah. We love him. He sent an email to the people there and was basically like, it's so nice. Like, our good friend needs a room. Make it happen, basically. Yes. It was so nice. And they were like, make it happen and give her the friends and family rate. Make sure it's a nice room. Like just so kind. Yeah. And then the guy responded back and was like, no.
1:19:42Can't do it. He was like, we're booked. Yeah. Don't know what to tell you. And he was like, what, the first couple of days? And I was like, sure. Yes. Like, thank you all for trying. This is so, so, so sweet. I'm so embarrassed. And I clearly don't deserve love. And yes, I'll, yes, I'll take those first two nights and then I'll figure out the rest, which is very upsetting. So a lot of times when you reach out and you ask for a little help, you end up in a worse position. I found this to be the case because then they offer something as a consolation prize and then you feel obligated to take that, but you don't really want the consolation prize.
1:20:18I'm not saying that's the case you're in, but sometimes I am in that situation. Yeah, of course. Yeah, yeah. And then you're like, why did I? Forget it. I shouldn't have done this. Now I'm, yeah. Well, that did happen recently. That's not the case here, but that did happen to me. I was ordering an umbrella for my patio. Okay. And I ordered it. And then they sent me an email very kindly and was like, just confirming for you that this is the stand you want for the umbrella because that stand doesn't actually go with this umbrella, but maybe you're buying it for another. And I was like, no, thank you.
1:20:50Thank you. Yeah. That was so nice for you to catch. And yes, can I do the one that's the right one or whatever? They're like, yes. And then they were like, oh, it's sold out. but we have this other one and it's more expensive, but we'll give you a discount. I was like, that's so nice. Yes. And then they're like, Oh, that's sold out too. You know? And then I was like, and then I just had to be like, thank you so much. I'm going to press pause on this whole thing. I'm not going to get it. And I felt bad because they had done so much back and forth. They were really trying to be like a good business.
1:21:23Yeah. And they were, but like, I was done with it. I had to cancel something recently. I ordered another Hyfactor 2000 for this house. Oh. And all of a sudden, five weeks has gone by. I'm like, where is my Hyfactor? Oh. And then I emailed them. Hey, does this get lost in the shuffle? For people who don't remember, it's the thing that zaps. It's best that I don't actually articulate. It's the thing that zaps. Dax is hyperplasia. And I am dying right now. There's like two things I want to zap. Okay. And it's driving me insane. Okay. I like almost want to fly to Nashville. Which ones? Just a little bump here I don't like.
1:21:58And then a little over here I'm not enjoying. And at any rate, so they're like, no, it's back ordered. But mind you, when I order it, it said in stock, right? So then I'm like, okay, well, now I want to find it. Is there another place I can get it? Sure. So I find another place. Okay. But I don't know. I want to order a second one if the other one is going to come. So then I sent an email and said, and this is the language I use. I said, if it's okay, I would like to initiate a refund. Wow. Yeah, yeah. Oh. I have found the product from another vendor, I said. I think I'm maybe trying to sound like a doctor because I think you have to be a doctor to have this.
1:22:35Oh. You know what I'm saying? So I'm trying to. You shouldn't have said if it's okay. That feels layman's. That's true. Or just they would be more mad. Yeah. Yeah, they would be entitled to be mad. And I wasn't. They'd say, I have an MD. It's okay. I would like to initiate a refund. I have found another vendor that can get it here quicker. and so I have received a refund from that and I've ordered another one but now I'm prepared for that one. It'll probably take five weeks as well and then I'll be like, I should have just stayed the course. Shortcuts are always the fastest way to the back of the line, I've been told.
1:23:08Uh-huh, and I've been told there's no short. Oh boy, you can't even get that out. That's how little you believe in that. I believe in it so much. Yeah. I've been told there's no shortcuts to anywhere worth going. Uh-huh, that's also good. Yeah. Yeah. It's really good. It was on a necklace. Oh, it was on a necklace. That's a lot of words for a necklace. It was on a compass necklace from Kohl's that Callie had in high school. And I loved it so much, she got me one. I recall this story. Yeah. Yeah. It's a pretty important story. It's a heartwarming one. It's a really important story to our friendship.
1:23:43You know, Callie used to be so... Oh, she still is. Oh, my gosh. She used to be so nice and thoughtful. I was going to say that. Yeah. She really did, though. at the beginning of our friendship, she was making up for a tough beginning. Okay. If you remember, she didn't save me a seed and like it was horrible. Okay. And I was really vulnerable. I asked her to save me a seed and then I get to class and then she didn't save me a seed. Okay. It was really bad. Yeah. But once we got through that, she used to bring me treats all the time. Really? She used to bring me Ensign's donuts. Yeah. The chocolate ones with the crumbles.
1:24:18And then it was like wax over the chocolate too. Yeah. They had different kinds. They had a waxy chocolate one. They had a regular. Ew. And then they had a chocolate one that had little, it was a cake donut. Oh, right, right. I know this one. Yeah, it had crumblies on top. That was your favorite. I like the wax chocolate covered one. Regular wax? Or did you like that it was chocolate inside? No, no, it was a vanilla with chocolate wrapping. Like the Hostess ones that I loved. Yeah. Those are. The Hostess ones didn't have as much wax on them as the Intamins. I love Intamins. It makes me think of my Pop-a-Bob and Grandma immediately.
1:24:56They constantly were chowing down on an Intamins coffee cake. Yeah, the coffee cake. Grandparents fucking love coffee cake. I know. It still has never got you. Got me. Yeah. It feels very dry. I agree. I was in New York with friends who have good taste that are going to come up later, and they recommended I get a coffee. We went to Zay Bars after, and they were like, have you had the coffee cake? You need to get it. And I was like, ooh, I was lying. Like, I wasn't excited about the coffee cake. It tastes a little bit like sand. I didn't get it, though. You didn't. Okay. Yeah, it feels like sand consistency a little bit.
1:25:29It looks like sand. It is sand. That's the thing. It's just made of sand and cinnamon flavor. Listen, feel free to send us some coffee cakes. You know, Weakley's prepared a stew. Oh, wow. He started on a stew yesterday. Yesterday? On a pot roast. Okay. Yeah, and that's what we're eating for dinner tonight. What do you mean he started yesterday? He started it yesterday, and then he said it would be ready at 5.30, and then he put a fork in it, and it didn't crumble, and he said, it's not ready, and then it should be ready at 6.30. Then 6.30 rolled around, and he put a fork in it. He's like, it's not there.
1:26:04So then we ordered Indian food, not to trigger you, but we did, and it was so delicious. And then he put his fork in it right after we finished the Indian food, and the whole thing crumbled. He goes, well, now it's perfect. So then he just, that's fine. Okay. No more heat. Okay. It goes in the fridge and then it'll get warmed up tonight. We'll have a nice pot roast. Okay. Well, I'm excited to hear how that goes. Yeah, it is. The end of that story. Remember the, and by the way, just for anyone that listened to the last fact check, he told on himself and he admitted that his wife said, Aaron loves cooking.
1:26:37He said, no, I don't. I know. And then he left that fact check and he called Ruthie and he said, I admitted on the fact check that I had done this. And she said, well, if you recall, it was harsher than that. You said, I hate cooking. It was even worse than I remember. Oh, no. I hate cooking. What a strange, strange. You too. I know. You too. There's something wrong with us. But he acknowledged it publicly. That's all you can ask for. Well, it's something to ask. Yeah, it's an improvement. Yeah, it's better than nothing. Than just sticking with it. I think a lot of guys just, they stick with whatever dumb thing they did.
1:27:18And then they can't cook ever again, even though it's their favorite activity. Yeah, and they want to. And they remember they enjoy cooking for others. Yeah, and then, like, you know, the wife's out of town. And then they get something stuck up their butt, obviously. And then the wife comes back into town and they're like, it smells like pot roast in here. Did you order it? Where do you order a pot roast from, hon? That's what they would ask. Oh, I got it. Sears. Tool department. That's why you've never seen it. It's made by craftsmen Okay Well I see there's a pot on the table Comes with a pot That's a craftsman brand pot Okay Yeah Came with a pair of pliers I would like to talk about a divorce Well okay Okay I went to an ears, nose, and throat doctor Yes What happened?
1:28:02Well I guess the headline is I don't have a deviated septum or anything Uh oh Yeah Which of course I wanted I know Yeah I'm sorry And then I'm going to now do the sleep test Where you wear a thing on your finger Oh. I think I'll start that tonight. It's supposed to have arrived. What does it do? It tells you if you have sleep apnea or whatever. It measures how many times you wake up. Oh, like an aura ring or something? But I think it's a little more, I haven't seen it yet, but apparently it's like a full sleeve that goes over your finger. Oh, it's medical grade. And it's Bluetooth and it communicates with your phone.
1:28:32Okay. So I'm excited about that. I'm excited to get a terrible score, which is a weird feeling. Well, no, I want it confirmed. You want validation. Yes, I want, like, data to support this experience I'm having. Okay. But the experience itself was I went and the doctor didn't come in the room for an hour. Yeah, this happens. I know. It's upsetting. Was this person recommended? Yes, by my primary care physician. Okay, great. He did those, he said, oh, yeah, I know two great ones. One's older, but he's really, you know, he's done a million. Okay. I was like, oh, I'm not afraid of older. Oh. Let's go older.
1:29:10and then I'm sitting in the room by myself for an hour and then I have to pee. Oh, yeah. So then I got to pee. I don't know what to do. I just walk out of the room. Sure. I walk down the hallway. I walk through the lobby. I go use the bathroom. I come back in. The door is locked to get back in the hallway. Oh. And the receptionist is, she's not having it. Like, there's just too many people there, I think, right? She's purposely ignoring anyone that's in the thing. So now I'm like, this is hysterical. I can't get the receptionist's attention. it was an hour waiting there and now all of a sudden i hear the doctor go where's my patient i've lost my patient i can hear him he's yelling and i go i'm here i have to go to the bathroom and now i'm locked out of the hallway this is how it starts and he's like oh oh oh let him in then then the receptionist pays attention for a minute and then i go in there and it was the most bizarre interaction I've ever had with a doctor.
1:30:06I don't even think he could see me. Because of his age? I just don't know. I don't know. I don't know. But it was a very bizarre experience. And he's poking around in my nose. And he's talking about another patient the whole time. Can you believe that thing we saw with that patient at 10? He was talking to somebody else there? Yeah, his helper. And so he's not talking to me at all. Okay. And then when I start to engage, he just doesn't want anything to do with it. Okay. And he fills my nose with all this numbing cream. And then I sit for another like 20 minutes. And I'm like, Jesus Christ, man, I didn't know I was going to be gone for three hours.
1:30:42I had other stuff. And then they take me to another room and he crams a camera way down. Wow, could you feel it? Yes. He's like, all right, this should have gotten rid of your gag reflex. All right, now I'm going to put this in. He goes, ah, all right, I wish every patient could handle this. So I got a compliment. That's good. That was really nice. All to say it was a very unsatisfactory experience, but I got the referral for the sleep study, which I guess is all I needed because I didn't have a deviated septum. And now the next only thing left is to get the sleep study. But then I got a message on my voicemail two days later.
1:31:20It was like, hi, I'm calling from such and such doctor and we'd like to schedule you for an ear test, hearing test. Oh. And I'm like, I will never come back there. Like I would never, you guys know things. Oh, I got to add to the fucking, the office was dirty. Oh God. Like I'm looking at, I'm in the room with the camera and they've got some computer equipment. Clearly they've upgraded to the system, but instead of getting rid of the old equipment, there's all these keyboards just crammed in the bottom of this car. It looked like when you're in high school and they bring the AV car. It's just all the old shit that's not fixed that they're not going to throw away.
1:31:57Yeah. And I'm just kind of looking around. Everything is shit stacked up everywhere. There's fucking keyboards hanging on the thing. Chords everywhere. I'm just like, I don't want to go back there for anything. Yeah. Ever. I'll cut this. Was that in Beverly Hills? Yeah. I'm sure the guy was a legend. It's Hitterman. Yeah, it was crazy how dirty and fucking, how much pack rat shit was all over these different offices. And the notion that I'm going to come back for a hearing test so I can sit in that room for an hour and then I can, yeah. Okay, this is funny. So when I first moved here, and this is definitely privilege, right?
1:32:32Like I understand. Yeah. Yeah, I'm lucky I can go see someone. Let me say that. Oh, right. Yeah, I'm totally lucky I get to go see you. That's not what I'm about to say. When I grew up, I obviously had doctors and stuff, and I grew up in the suburbs. So I don't know. I just went to the doctor. They all kind of seemed the same to me. Nice, I guess. In retrospect, now I'm like, oh, those are nice? I thought that was standard, right? Right, yeah. Same with my small town. Like, when you went to the doctor, they were nice to you. Oh, I mean, like, it's not dirty. Oh, right, yeah, yeah, same. Like, it was a pretty new facility in my small town, yeah.
1:33:10Yeah, just like the chairs look nice or whatever. Anyway, when I remember when I first moved to L.A., I was like, oh, my God. everything all the doctor's offices look like grungy sure like there's diseases all over everything yes and then I was like oh it's probably because I'm not going to nice ones and then I started going to nice ones and it's the same what's going on it is weird that my small hometown had a much nicer setup than this really nice quote in nice okay so are you gonna go to a different person and do a hearing test were they worried no I don't even need a fucking hearing test my hearing's fine but they think yeah Also on the thing, Nate, like, you know, you're filling out a questionnaire, which I did.
1:33:54By the way, I got there like 20 minutes early to fill out. I knew there would be a lot of, that's another, I mean, if I can be airing grievances. It's like I'm in the same fucking network, right? I go to the same, it's the same group. How could they not have, like, I don't understand how that hasn't been digitized in a way that, like, you know my birthday. You have my insurance information. I've gone to all these doctors in this network and I got to start from beginning. Tell me if anyone in your family's died of cancer. All of it is just waste. Because it was a new place. It's waste for them.
1:34:24It's waste for me. I know. It's just so inefficient. It's crazy. There's no way this couldn't be coordinated. So, yeah, in that paperwork, it's like it was asking you questions about your hearing. Well, none of them would have alerted them to that I needed a hearing test. Right. I have no complaints about my hearing. Yeah. Do you think you're a little defensive because you were deaf when you were born? No, I don't think that's what's going on. Anyways, back to the person. Yeah. And then I just thought like, oh, yeah, they're like a machine that's just like, yeah, now they can get another fee for checking my hearing when I had no complaints about my hearing.
1:34:57And then, yeah. Yeah? Yeah. You got to watch out. So I was unsatisfied with that experience. And so, okay. But what's lucky is what would I have done if he was like, oh, yeah, you have a DBA symptom. Let's schedule a surgery. I think I would have to go like, nah. No, yeah. Intermeaning you and interacting with you. See? And then the fucking filth of your office and your lack of punctuality. And here's the other thing. I understand that people get behind. Yeah. Like, actually, I wouldn't have even brought this up if the guy had said, hey, sorry, I'm an hour late. Right. I'd have nothing to say to you right now.
1:35:37Yeah. I wouldn't even have thought about it. I was like, but the notion that you're coming in an hour late, you don't even address that. And then you don't even really look me in the eyes and even talk to me at some point. Yeah, I agree. I'm like, oh, I'm a part of. It's not a good experience. I'm in a factory. And they're just cha-ching, cha-ching, cha-ching, cha-ching. Okay, but this is why we're different, right? And we did just talk about this on an episode that will come up. Like, you're like, I guess I'd have to tell him, like, this place is a dump and I hate him. And I'm like, no, you could just say, just say, like, okay, I'm going to go home and think about it.
1:36:07And I'll be in touch. And then you just aren't in touch. Well, funny enough, to be more specific about what we just talked about, I was saying in the past, I would confront people about if they asked for something kind of that I thought was inappropriate. I would tell them like, hey, this isn't you shouldn't really be asking me. Yeah. Right. So in the past and I want to I want to call back and go like, no, I'm not going to have a hearing test there because you're an hour late. Still, no one said sorry. And it was a terrible experience. You guys need to fucking clean the office. And why don't why are you keeping all those keyboards?
1:36:38What do you think you're going to do with those keyboards? instead I just didn't return the call and I'm never going to return the call. Right. So I, cause I was saying my new method is I just ignore stuff. I don't like that. Of course. But I'm saying if you're in there and they're like, Oh my God, you need surgery. Let's get, no, no, I wouldn't go in there. The thing that you brought up the scenario and that he's like up there and he's like, Oh wow. You have a deviated septum. We need to do surgery. Yeah. Then you say, okay, I would like to go and think about this and I'll be in touch. Not like, well, I'm not doing it here with you, sir.
1:37:11Yeah, I'm going to go see the other guy. I should have. And I'm going to tell my GP to stop recommending. I did cross my mind to tell him to stop recommending. I was going to say that of all things to do, you could just be like, hey, it's not an issue. But I do just want to let you know that that was not a good experience. And like maybe recommend. Recommend the other guy. Yeah. Yeah, just keep it to the other guy. But now you need to see the other guy to make sure he's worth the recommendation. I hope he's worse. I'm like, oh, wow, I actually got the right guy. He could be. Well, luckily, I don't need an operation.
1:37:41The other terrible truth is he might be the best at the operation. I know. This is to get into bedside manner, right? And then who gets sued and who doesn't. Yes. So maybe he's still the best. Okay, so the sleep thing. Okay, so you're going to monitor that. And then is there, do you have to go to a facility and sleep there one night? That's the old way. And that would have been preventative for me because I can't barely sleep in my own ideal situation. I can't imagine. I've had friends and they hook you up to so many cables and shit and I roll around a lot and I'm on the move when I go to sleep how many pillows do you sleep with?
1:38:15I bet I burn 600-700 calories a night fucking flopping around all night so what I'm hoping and thinking will happen is if they conclude I have sleep apnea and I need a device I'm praying that this company I'm dealing with for the device will just supply it and I have them dial it in I hope, like, I don't even suggest I got to go back to that guy. Yeah. Yeah. Don't even whisper that. I'll just fucking, I'll be like, I'm buying one on my own. I'll read the manual. I'll have chat. Tell me how that works. I already know. I'm going to go to my hyperplasia guy. My high, what's it called? Hyfector. My hyfector guy.
1:38:52I got a guy. Oh, the one great thing. I shouldn't, I should have said this. Okay. Had a great nurse before the man eventually came in. We love her this year, obviously. And I told her I had a high factor. And she said, oh, I know why. She said that she missed working for a dermatologist, that she had worked for a dermatologist for a lot of years. I said, oh, wow. So you worked at a dermatologist forever? And she goes, yeah. And I go, did you ever use the high factor 2000? Did you ever just use it? She goes, the entire time I worked there, I wanted to. And I go, why didn't you? She goes, I didn't want to get in trouble.
1:39:28She goes, and there's one here in one of the offices. And I think about using it all the time. And I'm like, go for it. I have one and it's awesome and I'm having so much fun zapping everything off my body and she was like she got it she's been coveting it just like I did for years and this is a major ding ding ding too do you think I could get sued by HyFactor they might call and say you gotta stop talking about this device when the LAPD shows up at my house um sir we understand you have a medical device in here and we also understand you're not a doctor. We have it in writing. You initiated a rebund.
1:40:08Such a good device. They should actually have me as an ambassador or a spokesperson for it. It's made by ConMed. Okay, stop, stop. Tell us, stop. That's the manufacturer. It's such a good instrument. Okay. This is in a really, really, really big ding, ding, ding for facts for next episode. Oh. But it is, I'm a little just, I don't care. Okay. Okay. It's for Adam Grant. Yeah. And we get in a conversation about cheating and employees and if those are connected, if people cheat in the office. Exactly. Yeah. Are they more likely to cheat or be dishonest in the office if they've cheated on their partners?
1:40:52Yes. And we both are, we're both like, we don't think that's the case. We know people. The group you're using was on a very specific whatever. You'll hear that. You'll hear it. It's a healthy debate. But this is funny because this nurse has such high integrity. Like she's like, I want to so bad and I'm not gonna. She probably has never cheated. And she's probably never cheated. And now we know. Well, maybe he's right. Maybe when we found out he's right. What if I followed it up? I go, you've never used it. She goes, no. Have you ever cheated? She goes, what? What the hell does that have to do with me wanting to burn off the skin tag I have?
1:41:31All right. You want to do some facts? Let's do some facts.
1:41:34Jared Diamond:Stay tuned for more Armchair Expert, if you dare. Confidence. It's listening to your gut. It's moving forward, even when the path ahead is unclear. For nearly 160 years, Pacific Life has helped people keep their promises, building confidence for generations. Whether you're confident in your financial future or just beginning to envision it, We're here to help. Ask a financial professional how. Pacific Life, the power of a promise. Pacific Life Insurance Company, Omaha, Nebraska. And in New York, Pacific Life and Annuity, Phoenix, Arizona.
1:42:17Okay, Jared Diamond, my goodness gracious. Yeah. I can't believe he was about to turn 89 the next day. Yes, he's definitely now 89. He's 89. Since we recorded it. And he's so, he's still so smart. Like part of that is it is a. Use it or you lose it. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It is. Yeah. I mean, I'm inclined to think that as well. Although I do know a couple of people that were brilliant and they used it. Yeah. So that happens too. Sure. But it is so impressive that at 89 he's as articulate as he is and can roll out his whole book. in the manner that he can. I know. Yeah. It definitely made me think of David Attenborough.
1:43:05Right. And I have thought a lot about this, like leadership and what makes a good leader and all the factors a lot since we interviewed him. What is cute is he has so much he could be proud of or impressed with. And what did he talk all like when we weren't recording? Gallbladder. Well, that was his expertise early on. Oh, ornithology. Well, ornithology, but his children. Oh, yeah. It's like, it's so cute that no matter what someone does, right, he's just like, he's so into his kids' lives and what they're up to. Yeah. It's very sweet. Of course. And yes, and when we walked out, because I walked him out and waited for his Uber, a little bird shot up into our oak tree.
1:43:53And he immediately was like, oh, that's a such and such, such and such. Yeah. And normally they're this and they're blah, blah, blah, blah. And I'm like, it's, that's why, like, I can't comprehend doing that. I can do it with cars. Yeah, so you can comprehend. I can in that way. Yes. But birds don't look that distinct to me. Well, and people would say that about cars. They would. Yeah. They absolutely would. Yeah. I think I told you that was, ding, ding, ding, that was one of the examples that in this archaeology class I had, they were talking about moche art in Peru and how they can tell what year the pot is made.
1:44:30Yeah. Based on how the pattern changed in art. Like it evolved. And of course, when you're to the lay person, these things all look identical. And I'm almost suspicious of like, but you're telling me you guys have figured out that this one came 1 ,000 years after this one. And then the professor said, now there are people in this room that could look at taillights of an impala and tell you what year it is. And I was like, oh yeah, I can do that. the F1 drivers can hear the sound and know what part that's real. Like, that's why I, I know not to like be controversial, but I know you and other people don't believe in Psalms.
1:45:09And like, to me, that's unfair. What are Psalms? Sommeliers. Oh, yeah. And it's like, that's unfair to them. Cause they can do that. They can taste it and they can know the region. And just cause like maybe you general, you who doesn't think this is real, can't do that or don't taste a difference and say who cares, it's what they know. I don't dispute that they know it. Okay. Some people do think it's all made up. Well, there have been some pretty bad blind tests that they've failed. Some people, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Some well-knowns have failed some cheap wine tests. So that's one issue. Sure. My bigger issue is like this one's better and more valuable than that one.
1:45:57So I'm already the whole endeavor I kind of bristle at because I think it's the same reason someone decided one of these baseball cards is worth$10 million and it's printed on paper and it's identical to the other one. The other one's signed as well, but that one is worth$10 million. You decided it's worth$10 million. Well, depending on who's in it, how rare they are. Like, it's, I mean, people would say that about classic cars. Like, okay, this one happens to be worth so much money. Okay, I don't see that much of a difference between this and this. Like, you know, it's all interesting. Everyone has their own niche.
1:46:39And I guess I'm just saying it's cool to have a niche. Yeah. And I don't want to disrespect any of the niches. Yeah. But yeah, anyway, ornithology. It triggers my class warfare stuff. I know, so I wish you could just understand that. It's like there's a million-dollar bottle of wine. You guys are jerking each other off. Like, you're going to get drunk the same. Does it taste better? The car is going to get you from A to B the same. But can it get you to A to a quarter mile in nine seconds? That's an objective, quantifiable thing. Can the wine taste a lot better? Yes. Also, the more you drink it.
1:47:18Yes, taste is very subjective. Like, I think a Big Mac's better than a$100 piece of fish. Okay, but the—if you drink wine, as I do, and I do not claim to be—I'm not a SOM. Okay. And I would not be able to tell the difference between a million-dollar bottle of wine and a thousand-dollar bottle of wine. Right. Is there a million-dollar bottle of wine? Let's ask what the most expensive bottle of wine that's ever been auctioned. I'm going to ask it right now. What's the most expensive bottle of wine ever to be purchased? This record appears to have changed in 2026. A 750-milliliter bottle of 1945 Domaine Dalla Romane Conte, DRC, Romane Conte, sold for$812 ,500.
1:48:10One bottle. Wow. Yeah. I mean, what do you think about that? What do I think about it? Does that seem... I think anything when you're getting to this level and it's an item is like, it's crazy. And I can wrap my head around if that's your world. Uh-huh. I mean, it's interesting though. I'll say this. One thing that's really unique about it is that the million dollar painting can be enjoyed. I know it. Yes, I agree with you. The million dollar car can be enjoyed. this you just you have to be getting that much pleasure out of knowing you own something rare I agree with you you can't experience it or it's gone I know I agree with you on that okay thank god that's great but that's different to me than like being in the wine world and knowing what things are from and stuff like that but like yes owning million dollar bottles of wine is seems a little crazy to me to me you've run out of things to buy yeah and you're like it wouldn't be I'm probably never get even these crazy watches you can wear them Of course.
1:49:14Yeah. Here's one. There are some weird exceptions. For example, a magnum of Champagne Avenue Falk 2017 reportedly sold for$2.5 million. But that transaction included an NFT digital artwork. Oh, my God. Another fake thing. Right? It's fake. Now, so they're not drinking it, right? No. The NFT, I don't think you can. It's not the NFT. I'm teasing. I'm teasing. No, the 812. Right. There's no way someone's. I hope they drink it before they die. I hope they drink it. Yeah. Or maybe they're probably going to pass it down. They'll probably get sold at another auction at some point for$2 million. It's just to tell people I have this thing.
1:50:02I know. We got to admit that's a little bit. I know. Okay. I agree with you on that. Okay. Now, what do you. But I was saying, as someone who does drink wine, I can't taste the difference between a$12 bottle and a$50 bottle. And I really can't because sometimes I'll be at parties and like all, you know, pour and I'm like, I can't drink it. Sure. But I definitely think there's got to be some stratas we'd agree upon. So yes, I bet you can tell the difference between an$8 box of wine and a$150 bottle of wine. Yeah, I can. But I would bet a considerable amount of money that you can't tell the difference between $150 bottle of wine and a$2 ,500 bottle of wine.
1:50:47That I would put a good chunk of money on. I probably could not. I do think, though, it's all relative. Like, some people can't really care. They don't care or taste the difference between$12 and$100. I like Ernest Gallo when I was drinking wine sometimes. I would get that big fucking jug at Save-On for like$6. Okay. Pound that thing and drink it right out of the bottle. Yeah. Great. I'm not a get—I'm not like—but I've got— snobbiness is like, you don't think you're going to become a snob at something. And then once you get in the world, it happens. Snobbery follows. Yeah. The most expensive bottle of wine I think I've ever paid for, um, was to be consumed in the moment.
1:51:30It was at a restaurant. It wasn't like to own and present, but I wanted it. To show people. Yeah. Um, was recently. And I think it It was like$2.50. Oh, wow. Okay. It was a lot. Yeah. Shared. Okay. How many bottles? Three and a half glasses in a bottle of wine? No, like, I would say like five. There's five? Yeah. Okay, so$50 a glass. Yeah. Yeah, okay. It's a lot. I'm not saying it's not a lot. I have thought about that wine multiple times since I had it and my friend had it. And she, too, was like, this wine is so good. And so I believe you a thousand percent. And I also believe in paying for experiences because that's what you're going to take with you.
1:52:17Right. Right. So I agree. But would you also acknowledge that your your brain does some stuff when you know, like, I'm going to spoil myself. This is obnoxious, but I've decided in this moment's worth it. This moment's special. I'm going to go for it. Yes. There's a lot built around it. Yeah. Yeah. OK. There is. I totally agree with you. But also, I'll buy wine from, shout out, Silver Lake Wines. Great wine shop. Let me just put it this way. It's the exact same bottle of wine, but it was$25. I'm pretty certain you wouldn't reflect back on it a lot. I know. Even though it would be good. It would be the same.
1:52:51The part is, this is what I'm trying to tell you. Okay. It couldn't be$25. Okay. Because it is too good. Unless, it's all relative. Unless the cheapest bottle of wine is five cents. Well, we agree the price of grapes are the price of grapes. Well, it depends on where it's coming from, region. This is an Italian wine and the year is rare. I know. They don't have very many. They don't put grapes in some wine and then gold in others. No, no, I know. Yeah, but the quality of the grapes and when they harvest and how they harvest, it's all. I'm sure they go up, you know, some percentage if you grow them perfectly and you take all the time and all that.
1:53:31But just the base ingredients are the base ingredients of wine. Again, like a car. Well, not true. Well, the base ingredient. Carbon fiber disc brakes. Are they metal? Are they carbon fiber? Is the body aluminum? That has to do with this too. Is it in steel? Is it in wood? I mean, there are factors. There are factors. Yeah. Yeah. But they go up by orders of magnitude in certain spaces. Sure. Luxury brands tend to, they get an order of magnitude of markup. Yes. Yeah. Um, but. By the way, I'm delighted. I co-sign on your decision to do that. Yeah. And it's great that you reflect on it. Yeah. But I've also, what I was going to say is I buy wine from Silver Lake Wine.
1:54:15Shout out. Great wine store in LA. Great to buy from them. Okay. And there's this. I really like Barolo wines. Okay. That's my preferred wine. It's not that easy to find. So I will buy it if it's at Silver Lake Wines. I've bought many. And I don't know this cost from this cost. It's all in my cabinet. And I'm not. You don't remember what's what. I don't remember what's what. And some are significantly more than others. So, but there are times where I will have it and I'm like, this is not good. Yeah. Wine also turnts sometimes, right? Yeah. Something's wrong with the cork you can get. Yeah. Yeah.
1:55:00and and nothing and I'll look and I'll be like oh that was one of the expensive ones oh that happens that happens and I'm like ew I'm not buying that again so it's not there are you won't completely fool yourself exactly you're like this is like shit and then you look at the back no this is actually delicious because it was exactly I'm like oh yuck yeah yeah yeah anyhow okay talking about okay back to the facts Jared Jared rare things this is this is Sim and it's a ding, ding, ding. Shakespeare's most read, most popular place. I think number one has got to be Romeo and Juliet. Yes. It doesn't, it just has top three.
1:55:40Okay. So that is in there. Yep. I would say Romeo and Juliet. I'd say Hamlet. Mm-hmm. And then for my third, I would say King Lear. No. Damn it. You want to try again? Midsummer Night. Midsummer Night's Dream, yes. Midsummer Night's Dream. I was in, oh. I was almost out, though. Oh, you are? Yeah. How many other ones are there? Oh, he has so many. Oh, too many. Well, he said he wrote 22 before he even wrote Hamlet, I guess. He, a very prolific man. Okay. Now, I was in Midsummer Night's Dream in college. Yes, you were. And I recently was watching, or I was on Instagram, and I was served Amy Poehler talking to Darcy Carden and both friends of our pod and Amy was saying that she was a fairy in Midsummer Night's Dream.
1:56:35Oh my goodness. And I was a fairy in Midsummer Night's Dream. Oh my god and you love her. And I love her. Yeah. And so we have some shared DNA for both fairies. You have something to talk about the next time you see her. We have so much to talk about but that is I wonder if you were the same fairy. No, she said she was like pea blossom. Okay. And I was mustard seed. Okay, so the fairies are peas blossom, not pea blossom, peas blossom. That's who she was. Okay. Cobweb. Okay. Moth and mustard seed. So there's only four fairies. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. They're very small parts. Yeah, very exclusive. And small actors.
1:57:21anyway so I just love that that we're both of the fairies yeah I was never in a play in your life? I'm trying to think I don't think I've ever been in a play well you know I also is that true? I think so there's still time maybe my Broadway debut I was also in Trojan I was offered a Broadway play not too long ago and I thought that's crazy they offered this to me. No, why would it be crazy? I don't know. Offered is a little crazy. Yes. But like. I've never done theater. Yeah. Well, I've done comedy theater. Yes, you have. But it is different. But yes. Yeah. You've done sketches where you had to memorize stuff.
1:58:04So it's not like you only did a part. Oh, yeah, yeah. I've done a lot of stage work. Yeah. I just have never been in a play. I was also in Trojan Women. It was Trojan Women. That sounds pornographic. Trojan women and Iphigenia at Aulis. Oh, my God. That also sounds pornographic. Iphigenia? Yeah. Oh, my God. I was her. Iphigenia? Uh-huh. Oh, wow. Was she a temptress? Uh-uh. She's a kid. Oh, okay. If you remember in the Odyssey. Yeah. She's the kid that is sacrificed. And that's why Helen's sister kills the husband. Oh. Because they sacrifice her. Sacrifice. I was sacrificed. Oh. Yeah. Okay. So that was a pretty big part.
1:58:54Okay. All right. That was cool. Okay. So Hitler was almost in a life-killing car accident. 1930. And then also, you know that rumor, but it is a rumor because I looked, that his mom wanted to get an abortion. Oh, I don't even know. That's like a common thing people say. It says there's no historical evidence of that. But it is a common thing people say. So then I was like, wow, he really like. I don't know how common abortions were in 1900 Austria. She wanted to abort. Okay, it was. So how would anyone know that? She wrote it in her journal? Maybe. I don't know. It's a rumor. Okay. I'm not mad at you for telling me the rumor.
1:59:36I'm only saying it's often useful to think about how the knowledge has been acquired. I agree. You hear like someone say some study they heard about. And then you go, well, explain to me how that study was done. And you realize there's no way to do that study. I mean, there's a Reddit. But I just don't trust Reddit. So I'm not going to even do that. How much money does Alabama put into their football team? If UCLA is 150 grand in the hole, I got to imagine this is going to be a big number. University of Alabama spent$82.9 million directly on its football program. While the university relies heavily on the football program to generate the vast majority of its overall athletic department revenue, the massive annual expenditure is funneled into various components to keep the program operating at an elite level.
2:00:24Will you ask how much money the football team generates? Yes, I will. I don't know if this is a cash positive. Also,$25.2 million dedicated to paying head coach. 25 million a year to support staff 7 million game day expenses 7.5 million recruiting 4 million oh my god okay um how much does the university of alabama football team gener football team generate a lot i bet 147.7 million wow that's through their merch i guess operating revenue wow that's crazy net profit 64.8 million wow the south baby it's worth it they should spend 100 million i know no because they still want to make money well maybe they'd make one they make 75 georgia generates an estimate of 147 million to 153 million in average annual revenue whoa ask me u of m i know that's generally the biggest merchandise team i've heard that in the past the Overall, UGA Athletic Department pulls in roughly$233.5 million to$241.8 million.
2:01:34Quarter B. Quarter B. Wow. Okay, what do you want? U of M? Yeah, how much does it generate? Football team or? Football team. Okay. $175.3 million. I'm shocked. I have heard many times that they are, for whatever reason, they tend to sell more merch than any other team. What? For whatever reason, yeah. That's crazy. What was the money exchange thing? I think you're talking about, that Elon had, I think you're talking about PayPal. Oh, yeah. Or x.com slash PayPal, xMoney. It definitely was PayPal, because weirdly I'm reading another book that just talked about PayPal. Great. Although PayPal is who bought his.
2:02:14So his was called something else. Exactly, Peter Thiel bought it. Yeah. XMoney was what it was called. Oh, that was what it was called. Was Jesus' Room messy? I don't know. I couldn't find any information on that. but I looked. He probably didn't even have a room. Exactly. He lived in a shed. People didn't have like multi-room dwellings, I don't think. I think he lived in a shed. In a manger. When he was a baby. Well, I'm sure they would have continued living in that manger, no? I thought a manger was a basket. No, a manger is like a little tiny farm. Oh. There's a sheep and a... I mean, I knew he was in a farm.
2:02:50I want to double check if that's true. But I thought... I, oh, I thought that basket he lit. What's the definition of a manger? It says manger. How do you spell manger? M-A-N-G-E-R, I think. Oh, okay. Then that is correct. It looks like manager to me. A manger is a long wooden or stone through used to hold food and hay for farm animals like horses, cattles, and donkeys. So, well, yeah, like a barn, like you said. Oh, see, that's what I thought it was, a basket that he was in. But the basket is in a manger. Oh. The basket itself is not the manger because that basket could be anywhere and it would still be a basket, but it's in a manger.
2:03:29Okay. Yeah. Which is a big stone or wooden square that's containing horses, cattle, hay, and donkeys. Yeah. I don't think a donkey could fit in that, so. That photo. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Well, I learned something today. I thought it was a name for a bassinet. You didn't grow up Christian. What can you do? Exactly. What can you do? I would not, we would not know the word manger if Jesus hadn't been brought into a manger. I've never heard it apart from in the biblical sense. Yeah. And the nativity scene is the manger. I should still know though, because, you know, I did take religion with my hot professor.
2:04:04Yeah. And you went to a few, you went to a few youth church groups with your friends too. I went to youth group with my friend like a couple of times. I also went to synagogue. That was more fun. It was it? Yeah. Okay. With my friend Julia. Anyway. Anyway. That's where I got Liberti at a Jewish bazaar. Oh, wow. Yeah. Wow, wow, wow. Yeah. All right. Okay, love you. Love you.
From the publisher
Jared Diamond (Profits, Prophets, Coaches, and Kings, The World Until Yesterday, and Guns, Germs, and Steel) is a Pulitzer Prize-winning scientist, historian, and UCLA professor. Jared joins Armchair Expert to discuss growing up in the shadow of World War II, his family’s connection to the Holocaust, and his path from physiology to geography. Jared and Dax talk about testing history through natural experiments, measuring the influence of CEOs and coaches, and the six factors that determine a leader’s impact. Jared explains the “Hamlet test” for irreplaceable leaders, why timing can matter more than talent, and how democracies overestimate a president’s control over the economy.
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