Episode 887 - If not Vini, then what?

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1:00James McNicholas: Hello and welcome to a brand new Arseblog Arsecast right here on Arseblog.com. How are you? Hope you're well. Thank you very much indeed, as always, for being here. Arsenal were in Ireland this week. They played a pre-season friendly against Rail Betis last night. A 3-1 defeat. Not a brilliant game, unfortunately, for the Arsenal fans from Dublin and from all over Ireland, many of whom I met across the last couple of days here. The support for Arsenal, despite the fact Liverpool and Manchester United are the traditionally best-supported clubs, and probably still are by some distance for all kinds of reasons, there's no question that Arsenal have a huge, huge fan base here in Ireland, and many of those people were at the stadium last night to watch the game.

1:48James McNicholas: Shame it wasn't a bit better, but that's football for you, of course. So we're going to talk about the game. We're also going to talk a little bit about the transfer situations with regards to Vinicius Jr. after the developments in Madrid yesterday and what that might mean for that potential deal and what Arsenal have to do next. So without further ado, we're going to get on with the show and with me today in studio in Ireland, in Dublin, in my house. I don't need to go any deeper than that. Elliot Smith. Good morning, Elliot. The podcast is coming from inside the house. It definitely is. It definitely is.

2:23James McNicholas: So, yeah, how's your Ireland experience been so far? Yeah, brilliant. I mean, the show that we did at the Sugar Club was fantastic. People have been lovely. Got a chance to meet a lot of people. And it's nice to be here not feeling like I have to hop on a plane and go so I can kind of settle in, enjoy it. I think we've been reasonably fortunate with the weather, giving us a chance to walk around. It was lovely during the game if the game itself wasn't lovely. So, yeah, so far so good. So far so good. So we should say for Arscast and Arsenal Vision podcast listeners, This will be quite a similar episode because Arsenal were obviously in town last night playing Real Betis at the Aviva Stadium at Lansdowne Road.

3:01James McNicholas: That's what it should be called. That was the old name of the stadium. So for convenience sake, you know, you're here, I'm here, we're doing this podcast. So it's going to be pretty similar for both. So a little apology if you're looking for two distinct podcasts today. But, you know, it being what it is. Yeah. So on the version we put out on the Arsenal Vision channel, like all of my opinions will be better. And then on yours, your opinions will be better. But otherwise, mostly identical. Yeah, so listen, we were there, we were at the game yesterday. There was a nice buzz around town, a nice buzz around Dublin.

3:35James McNicholas: We were in a pub called Toners on Bagot Street, which is quite close to the stadium, packed full of Arsenal fans from all over Ireland. That's the great thing about this particular country is that, you know, even if you are a little bit relatively far away from Dublin, you can make the trip and come and see the Arsenal. It was brilliant to see so many fans, you know, pregame. And, you know, there was a lot of excitement, a lot of anticipation, a lot of buzz, a lot of, you know, families and kids and that kind of stuff, which I guess makes, you know, what happened in the game a bit of a shame. But you can see from the fact that this was a preseason game, I guess in sort of peak holiday period as well.

4:14James McNicholas: And that stadium was sold out. I did like the stadium announcer. Maybe my favorite bit, apart from the fiddle battle before the start. There was a literal fiddle battle before the start of the game where two young ladies had a fiddle off. And that sounds much worse than I mean it to be. they were literally playing fiddles people but there was there was a moment towards the end of the game where the stadium announcer came on he was all very excited he was like and tonight's attendance ladies and gentlemen is and on the screen all the numbers went and he just went sold out he didn't give us a number give us the fucking number what's the number and what's weirder is on the screen the numbers went to all zeros went to like five zeros and then he just I said sold out.

5:03James McNicholas: Sold out. Tonight's attendance is full. I wish they could have told us. But look, the stadium was full and there was a great deal of buzz around. The team was, I think, the same team that started against Girona. So a certain level of seriousness for Mikel Arteta in that regard. Yeah, I think, look, we can get into the parts of the game that weren't thrilling or particularly effective. But like, it is a fitness exercise at this stage of preseason. It will be a truncated preseason, but you could see he tried to ramp up the minutes. He took the same group. He gave them a bit more time on the pitch than expected.

5:37It was nice to see the Gabby's Martinelli and Big Gabby back in the squad and able to be a part of it. But it's so interesting, right, because the game kicks off and within a minute or two, we're in with a chance for a goal. Jokic has a good chance. And I thought, oh, we're just going to destroy Bettis and it's going to be another rollicking time for the preseason. and that was sort of the highlight of the game.

6:00James McNicholas: Yeah, it didn't really turn out that way. We've just watched a replay of the Ocaraz chance here because we were sort of pretty much at pitch level. Really nice seat. So we got a good, really good view of Hector in the second half, rocking that tash, rocking that. I don't know if it's quite a mullet because he's also got the hair at the sides, but he's got the long hair and the tag and what a great guy. I'm sure people have read the interview he did with Sid Lowe while he was here in Dublin just comes across as a brilliant dude, Hector. So that was maybe the most exciting part of the second half.

6:33James McNicholas: But we didn't get a real chance to see that Jokeres chance. You know, we saw it in real time, but it was up the other end and it was hard to sort of parse exactly what had happened. I think it's a pretty good chance. One of those where maybe you just need to move your feet a little bit quicker and get the shot off a step earlier and you have a better chance of scoring. Yeah, it seems like he wants it set up for himself perfectly. He wants it just right on his right foot so he can strike it the way he wants. And so he takes a few more extra steps to kind of prepare himself to strike it. And I think in general, if there's something maybe he can work on this season is just getting his shots off more quickly.

7:10Obviously, in Portugal, both with his strength and his pace and the level of defending there, I think he could get the shot just how he wants it on his right foot in the positions he wants it. When he does that, kind of as we saw at the San Siro, he can score beautiful goals. But as we know, at the top level last season, there were a number of games he just didn't get shots off, period. And I think that's largely down to needing the ball more comfortably where he wants it to strike it. So this was a case of a couple extra steps. And by the time he did get his shot away, the chance was a bit gone.

7:41James McNicholas: Yeah. Like you say, though, early in preseason, and hopefully that's something that can improve as the summer goes on. this might be a bit of a hot take right and i know that leave that to me i know that's your territory but this might be a bit of a hot take i'm not 100 sure i rate this keppa guy that highly yeah i mean if i look at uh how we do when he plays it's really this simple he makes errors and we lose now you know correlation is not causation but i think in this case it may be A combination of correlation and causation. Again, for their corner when they scored their first goal, we didn't totally see what happened from our pitch level vantage point, but it took one quick scan of socials to just see Kepa exclamation point repeated over and over again.

8:31So I think it is fair to say that he was at fault there and at fault for their second as well.

8:37James McNicholas: You weren't particularly impressed with the save that led to the corner. you felt he should have pushed it a bit wider, which I think having watched it again at the time, I was thinking it was quite breezy and quite windy. And I was thinking, well, yeah, it could have been moving around. Mosquera put it behind for a corner. I guess you're right, though. If he pushes that wider, Mosquera has a chance to just boot that up the pitch rather than behind for a corner. Palm's directly back in front of him. If anyone in Venice is taking a risk, making a run, it's right there for them. So, no, I thought that was really poor.

9:10Obviously, the kick out for the second goal is really poor. I mean, I still haven't actually seen either of their goals from outside the box, which I think were good strikes. And to Mikel Arteta's credit, he gave credit to Bettis for scoring a couple of good goals. But for the most part, we made three errors, two by the goalkeeper, one by Kai. And all the goals come from those mistakes.

9:32James McNicholas: Yeah, I like James. James was doing the live updates for the Athletic. And he wrote, there is no man's land. There is absolutely no man's land. And then there is wherever Kepa ended up when that corner dropped into the six yard box. Like he came for it and was like not even in the same postcode at all. I do think like the best thing that could have happened for Melia is what's happened in the first two preseason games. So because if you think about it, when he was signed, he was the first signing. People want, you know, an exciting attacker and people kind of did what they do when you sign a backup keeper.

10:05They got kind of annoyed about it and he's terrible. And why are we signing him? But we've had two preseason games. He's been faultless and actually pretty good in both preseason games. And the guy who is our current backup has been an absolute train wreck. So if anything, Melies come up in people's estimation and maybe people see why we've gone for it.

10:23James McNicholas: Well, yeah, you could even say his stock is rising by virtue of... I would. I would say that in our app. Yeah, yeah. Good plug for the app there. Yeah, good for you. No, I think you're right, though, to an extent. And he did make a good, good save in the second half, Melies. The second goal, I think, you know, this is just a bad kick from Kepa. I think it's Max Damman who plays the ball back to him. He should launch that downfield. That's how you do it. You get the ball upfield. You get organized. It just sort of spooned it up in the air towards the, I guess, the better left wing. They played it inside.

10:58James McNicholas: It is an absolutely brilliant strike. It's an unbelievable hit from outside the box. But as much as we might be focused on the goalkeeper, I'm absolutely certain that when that goal is analyzed and when Mikel Arteta looks at that goal, he's going to have a quick word with Myles Lewis-Galley and Ethan Warneri for not quite closing down quickly enough. The attempts to close down were a bit half-hearted. I think pretty much every goalkeeper gets beaten by that shot, but Arteta's contention will be he had too much time and space to get that shot away in the first place. To be fair, I think it's hard to pick nits with how we defend because we've been defensively the best team in England for a number of years now.

11:42But if you wanted to say something that happens maybe with a little too much regularity, I think players are able to get clear shots away at the top of the box against us every once in a while a little bit too much that we are guilty of sitting off or the midfielder is not following a man into that space. So, look, I think if you're a manager in preseason, in addition to wanting a fitness exercise, you want to see some good things that you're working on succeed. But maybe you want to see a few issues that you can point out and have on film that you can show to the players and say, this is where we need to be better.

12:16I think, you know, Mikel even said it in his post-match comments that if you're going to concede three, you'd rather concede them in a game that doesn't matter. Yeah. That isn't a competitive fixture. So some things to work on there for sure, though.

12:27James McNicholas: Yeah. It was a mistake. I mean, three mistakes. We got a goal back through Piero and Capier, header from a corner, and then Kai Havertz gave the ball away. And listen, they move it very well. Kepa's rooted to the spot. I don't know that there's a great deal really he can do about that one in particular, but it never looks good for a keeper when you don't move. It's one of those, it could have cracked off the bottom of the post. He gets away with it. What I can't see is like if they gave him the eyes or if it was through legs, like I just didn't see it from that angle and it's preseason, so I haven't like searched it out again.

12:58But what I would say is that, yes, there's a change of possession, but there's enough time for him to be set and ready to try to save a shot. And when you don't even make an effort to get to it, like that's not fantastic.

13:12James McNicholas: No. So look, 3-1 down at halftime and not the script that people would have written for this one. And it really did kind of have an impact on the atmosphere and sort of what it was like in the stadium. It was a bit like nobody's going mad or upset, but there wasn't really the buzz that you would have hoped. You know, if Arsenal score a few goals, everyone gets a bit excited. There was a very drunk guy in front of us who sat there with most of the curry sauce on the curry chips that he got on his face, dripping down his chin. Then he sat there asking people to light his cigarette, which nobody did.

13:49James McNicholas: And he was also sitting in the wrong seat beside a quite uncomfortable young lady who had to get him to move when her boyfriend or her partner came back. When her partner came back, the drunk gentleman asked for a high five from her. And it looked like the way you might touch a public toilet. She gave him a high five in a way that suggested she wanted the least amount of her hand to make contact with his hand. And then he just stood up in front of everybody until, you know, we had to ask him very politely to sit down. I mean, he wasn't troublesome per se, but he was certainly not sure he will have remembered too much of that second half.

14:23James McNicholas: Fitness exercise, as you say, and that's primarily what this point of preseason is about. So, Gabriel, Gabriel Martinelli, getting some minutes at the start of the second half. That's them sort of being eased back into action. Yeah, good to see that. I will just point out, Christos Solis was on the opposite side from us and having a pretty low angle to the game. I didn't get a great feel for his performance, but it's another good corner delivery. You know, our goal comes from his corner delivery. It's an excellent delivery, and it just sort of makes you wonder. It's hard to get much better than Declan Rice's.

14:54I'm not saying he's going to take Rice off corners, but if he's playing and Rice is playing in a game and he can deliver a corner like that, getting Rice in the box wouldn't hurt.

15:02James McNicholas: Yeah, or, you know, you've got another corner taker when Rice isn't there because it's generally been Saka or Rice or Madweke. Yeah, we haven't had the best corners from the left-hand side when Rice isn't there. So great delivery from Solis. And from what I gather, he did reasonably well. I mean, he had a good chance that he didn't take. But otherwise, I think a reasonable couple of games from him that are encouraging. Yeah, we were looking at Max Downman, obviously, first half because he was in front of us. I did take my eyes off Ben White once in a while to have a look at Max. I think what's fascinating about Max is that the talent is there, the potential is there, the raw ingredients are so obvious to everybody.

15:48James McNicholas: But there were a couple of moments where you could see the rawness and that's completely normal for a 16-year-old. I think there was one where Ben White had made the run outside and Max should have played the pass first time. But he does love to take people on. It's part of what makes him such a good and exciting player. But I think the conclusion, not the conclusion, but perhaps what we were talking about more was at 16 years of age, which is the thing people reference around him all the time. The physical development is it's really weird to me how you can see a player. The season ends, they go away and have like essentially six weeks holidays, and then they come back and they just sort of look bigger.

16:30James McNicholas: It's happened before. It happened with Jack Wilshire. It's happened with Ethan and Miles. to an extent as well, that somehow they have this growth spurt that happens every year between sort of the 1st of June and mid-July when they come back. Maybe we have our own special doctors. I don't quite know, but that was obvious yesterday with Max, wasn't it? That he just looks more physically developed. I can't speak from experience. From what I understand, 16 is a normal age for a growth spurt for others. Yeah, look, it may not have been as exciting a game for him as the one against Girona, but what I will say is, If you think there's a chance that Max will be starting or at least playing minutes in games that matter early this season, which is in play, that could happen.

17:17And you're Mikel Arteta. You know Max can beat a man off the dribble. You know he can score a goal. You know he can provide an assist. But what you need to know is that he can do the other things on the pitch that you must do to win football matches. And I think the best part of his performance last night was the way he tried. I know this is so Arteta-pilled what I'm saying, but the way he tracked back, he took the ball off, bet his players at times. He recovered the ball well, gave it, and then allowed us to turn defending into attacking. So because I think fundamentally what he can do in the attacking part of the game is beyond question.

17:52He can impact the game there. But can he contribute at the other end of the pitch in the way you need to if you're going to start in the Premier League? And I think you showed that he's up for that part of the game as well, which is important.

18:02James McNicholas: Yes. So second half, you have players like Gabriel and Gabriel Martinelli for whom those minutes are useful. You also have Gabriel Jesus who missed a good chance. I think it was set up by Martinelli and he put it wide of the post. But Gabriel, Jesus, Fabio Vieira, Rhys Nelson. And, you know, when we get the players back, when you get Rice and Odegaard and Eze and Matueke and Saka and these guys back in, players like that are even more surplus to requirements. I didn't mention Zubimendi and Marino as well who are coming in. they're useful now because we need those sort of players on the pitch but none of them did anything that would make you think oh you know maybe the door is open very slightly for these guys yeah well i'm sure i'm sure you plan to mention i think we can say obviously like one of the most significant things that happened in the game that's unfortunate is uh copley copley's injury yeah which was confirmed as not good so that that put a real damper on the second half because you These academy kids, this is their chance to play.

19:14I was going to say a number of people. I don't know the number of people. I just know a full sold out number of people. And the mechanism of injury didn't look good. And they were doing that stability test for the ACL. And obviously can't speculate on whether that's where it was. But Mikel, after the match, said it didn't look good. So that wasn't great. I mean, I do think Ibrahim looks good. Again, talk about physical development. big, strong, tall-looking academy player. Looks very much at home in the center midfield. Marley Salmon, again, looks very comfortable in that area. But the quality of the game deteriorated.

19:48One thing I do think is worth pointing out, by the way, I don't think Bettis made their first sub until like 70 minutes or so. I could be wrong about that, but they did not make a lot of subs. They're obviously further ahead in their preparation. Took this game quite seriously, as you would. If you're the manager of Bettis, you say, hey, I'm going against Arsenal. This is a chance to really test ourselves against top opposition to make sure we're ready for the season. I think they took that opportunity quite seriously, from what I can tell. I thought they were very organized. If anything, maybe it's good preparation for us to see an organized lower block that frustrated us and have some chances to work on that.

20:24So I do think that when you play preseason and one team is quite a bit ahead of the other team and their physical preparation, that can make quite a big difference.

20:32James McNicholas: Am I right in thinking that somebody said it's their sixth preseason game, Betis. It might be because I know for Girona, that was their fourth. So for Betis, fifth or sixth would make sense to me. Yeah. Yeah. And we are missing a lot of really, really good, important first team players. I will say, right, like you can look at it and you can look at the midfield and Miles and Ethan are obviously very good players, but they're the youngest element of a very talented midfield that's gotten even more talented with Rune Gimrash coming now. And you can look at the players that weren't there, but I mean, I cannot help but look at the right side of our defense and think that is an area of immense concern going into the season, given the state of the fitness of the squad and who's available because Timber again, not in the squad.

21:20Saliba is going to be out for a while. It's Ben White and Mascara who both started and are really at this point the only available first team players for the right hand side of our defense. That's pretty concerning, I would say, for a team that has an identity built on our defensive solidity.

21:35James McNicholas: An area of concern. An area of concern. Perhaps. I mean, more talks or more whispers that we're looking at Esri Kansa. We were talking about him on the way down to the stadium, and you were, I'm not going to say more positive on him than I was, but in terms of making the case for the kind of player he is, Premier League ready, has played Champions League, He's 28 years of age, can play right back, can play center half. You know, I'm not a big fan, I have to say, of him as a player. I think as essentially a backup for when all the key players are available, it makes quite a bit of sense. What doesn't make sense to me are the figures that are being bandied around for him.

22:25James McNicholas: I've seen talk of like 60, 70 million. And that, to me, seems absurd and ludicrous. And I know that's Villa holding out for the best possible fee that they can hold out for, and they're perfectly entitled to do that. I just don't think Arsenal should go anywhere near Esri Kanza for that amount of money. But then the question becomes who and when and when are you going to address this particular issue? I mean, I agree with you, by the way. I think we're both aligned on the fact that a defender, for all the focus on Bruno Gimeraj and Vinicius Jr., which we'll talk about now in a moment, I absolutely agree that we need to bring in a defender.

23:01James McNicholas: And if they had any designs, and I'm not sure they necessarily did for Louis Copley to be sort of there or thereabouts as a potential right-back backup, you know, that's gone now. So I do think it is important that we bring in a defensive player. I just don't quite know how they solve that particular puzzle. You said earlier that the hot takes are my responsibility. So I'll try out a take here that's just popped into my head that will probably be deeply unpopular, but I'm willing to own it. Okay. We were concerned about Saka's fitness going into last season. And the move we made in response to that was to spend 50 plus million pounds on Nani Meduake.

23:40Okay. And you could argue that doing that was important and helped us win the title because Saka wasn't available. Was it that much?

23:45James McNicholas: I mean, I feel like every time we talk about him, the price kind of goes up. It was£78 million. £9 ,000 million on Nani Madweke. Point is, we made a significant investment, whatever it was. If it wasn't£50, it was, you know, it was in the ballpark. Ballpark, yeah, yeah, yeah. I would argue that Saliba is going to miss more time this season than Sakhamis last season. And I would argue that Kansa is a better player at his position than Nani Madweke is at his. And I would say that the investment you make in Kansa is a more important investment to make than the investment you make we made in Nani Maduike.

24:28And just a few things to think about. Look, I'm not saying the price is right, but I do think that there is a bit of recency bias of people watching the World Cup where I think he was kind of mediocre and judging him off that. But this is a guy who has played at a team that's been in and around the top four conversation for many years now. He's averaged 3 ,000 minutes starting at center back in the Premier League. He's in the 97th percentile for pass completion, 80th percentile for passes. So he's comfortable on the ball. He plays 60 passes a game at 96 percent. So we need someone who, like Saliba, can get on the ball and be confident on it.

25:04So he's a passer. He's an experienced defender. He's got Champions League experience. He averages 3 ,000 minutes a season in the league. He's right in the heart of his prime from a center back standpoint. I mean, 28 for a center back is probably closer to like 26 for a forward. And it is entirely possible that Saliba is not back until November or even December. You certainly don't want to rush him back. For a team that's identity as defense and whose options on the right-hand side of defense right now are Christian Mascara, a very talented young player, but a young player who can't play every single game.

25:36Ben White, who is not a center back and has injury problems of his own. And Urien Timber, who is also not a center back and has injury problems of his own. I don't know what you think we should do at center back, but I would argue that whatever interest and urgency we showed in getting Nani Meduake in to cover for Saka, we should be showing similar interest and urgency to have a plan for the right-hand side of our defense. So whether that's constant or not, I think it is sensible for us to take that very seriously because that is the kind of injury that can derail a season before you get Saliba back.

26:09And it seems very avoidable as well, because we know the injury is there. This isn't happening week two of the season. It's happened in the summer. We have time to respond to it.

26:17James McNicholas: You son of a bitch. I'm in. Ah, there we go. No, I mean, like I said, it's the price point. But maybe that's the thing, you know, if you do need that player and you are trying to profile that kind of a player who's got all the experience that Kanza has, maybe that is the going rate in the Premier League. I just don't know. Well, and it is the case that you have to also look at what are the alternatives. I wonder, you know, we say that's too expensive or it shouldn't cost that much. That's easy to debate. I mean, I don't think a lot of the players that have moved this summer should cost what they should cost.

26:52So there's clearly price inflation across the board. And I wouldn't want to buy Conta at the expense of having the money to go after a really exciting forward. What I wouldn't want is to, A, not reinforce in that position and try to get through the first half of the season with Timber White and Mascara. I don't think that is a sensible approach. And I wouldn't want to bring in someone who just isn't good enough. There's some analysis for you. No, no, I know what you mean.

27:24James McNicholas: But like somebody who might need time to adapt or get used to the Premier League or – yeah, I get it. Yeah, I mean, there is no one we could buy that has the relevant experience at our level or at the level that he has that would probably be available to move. And by the way, if you're like, I don't care about the experience. I don't think he's any good. You're obviously entitled to that opinion. But again, I think some of that is just informed by what I think was a mediocre World Cup campaign. and I try not to use international football as the way I analyze a club-level player. Sure, that's fair enough.

28:03James McNicholas: Well, we'll wait and see what happens with that position and that deal that Arsenal need to do at some point before the season begins, ideally. Any further takeaways on what we saw or what we didn't see or anything else from the Dublin game before we sort of kick on a bit here? I'm not sure there's too much, really. It was a bit of a damn squib in the end. All the young players that came on, you know, good experience and good development for them. But Arsenal now will go back to London. I guess they're going back today on the training ground ahead of the game against Borussia Dortmund on Sunday.

28:40James McNicholas: Then you've got Como in midweek. You've got the community shield and then fucking bang, we're right back into the season. So I won't say the urgency, but the preseason needs to step up a bit, if you know what I mean, if that makes sense. Yeah. I mean, I guess what I would say, too, is in some of this, maybe watching the game from the level we were watching it or just the fact that I'm not as good at watching games at the ground than I am on TV because I just have less experience. I might watch six games a season that way versus from the TV angle. But Mikel may be working on things that we're not aware he's working on, that he's testing out and trialing.

29:20And some of those things are going to not work. And then it doesn't look good on the pitch. And you think, we look like we're a bit of a mess, but he may be trying things. I mean, Cal Fiore's positioning was very interesting to me. He was floating and roaming all over the pitch. Well, he always does. He always does. But like Kai Havertz, for example, there were times he was the deepest midfielder and Ethan was ahead of him, out of possession. There were things that we were doing with Kai and Jokras' positioning that was really interesting and kind of hard to track from our viewing angle. And so I do sometimes wonder with preseason, in addition to it just being a fitness exercise, if there are things managers are working on and trialing that can make the performance look a little less coherent than it might otherwise, but we're not necessarily aware of.

30:01Because this thing of Kai and Jokras together, I don't know if that's something that Mikel really wants to try and lean into at the start of the season. and maybe it is, maybe it isn't. But I'm not convinced that it totally works in every phase. Like there are times when it looks like it makes sense and there are other times where it looks a little bit of a mess to me. No, I think it's down to personnel and who's available, right?

30:26James McNicholas: So if you have Odegaard, Zubamendi, Marino, Eze, all available to you, I don't think you play Havertz in that role. For me, Havertz and Jacareza are kind of either or, unless you're in a situation where the game demands a goal and you're putting two strikers on. That's kind of the way I want to see those two used. I don't think that we're going to sign another striker this summer. I just don't believe that's the case. I could be wrong. You never know what might happen. The market shakes in weird ways and something might come along and there's an opportunity. So I think what we've got are two number nines in Jokeres and Havertz and I think they're distinct in terms of how they play and I think they're distinct in terms of who they should play against.

31:11James McNicholas: And that's not to be in any way critical of either of them. I just think Havertz is better suited to certain games. Joachim is better suited to certain games. Lean into those strengths over the course of the season and don't have Havertz and Joachim on the pitch together unless you absolutely have to, unless you're trying to batter down the door to get an equaliser or a winning goal in a game where that really is necessary. Yeah, and I would say a mixed game for Miles and Ethan, but I'm not sure that it helps Miles and Ethan when the third midfielder is Kai Havertz, you know, and is someone that's not really a midfielder by trade necessarily.

31:46So just like we talk about center back partnerships are partnerships. Midfields are very much about the relationships between the players on the pitch. And that's one that to me still looks like a work in progress. I'm very, very curious to see what happens with Ethan, right? I mean, that's the one that I think people have their eye on in terms of can he really make the case for himself to have minutes and to be a part of the squad? Because if you think that Rice and Bruno are going to play a lot of minutes together during this season, there's an absolute logjam in that third midfield role. They're just – there's Ezza and Odegaard and Kai at some level and Marino and Ethan and Miles can even play there a bit.

32:29It is just natural that given Ethan's talent and given the interest in him that will exist, there's going to be a lot of people with their eyes on him in terms of whether there's a role for him this season. And I probably rate his talent more highly than many, but I do see the pathway being quite complicated for him.

32:50James McNicholas: No, I agree with that. I agree with that. Let's talk then about the Vinicius Jr. situation and the development that took place yesterday. It was all very, not cloak and dagger, but, you know, there's going to be a meeting. And then we're sort of, oh, look, they've come out of the meeting. And it's sort of like electing a new pope. Has there been white smoke? What is the white smoke for Madrid about Vinicius Jr.? So here's the sort of the state of play via David Ornstein. Real Madrid raise contract offer to Vinicius Jr. Proposal said to reflect 26-year-old's importance to Real Madrid and the project.

33:26James McNicholas: Decision time for the Brazil international. Renewal, which is with Real Madrid, obviously. Await free agency next summer. Club one to avoid, obviously. Or pursue Arsenal opportunity. So that's kind of where we are. this is i don't think this is necessarily an unexpected development because loads of people were saying real madrid you know everyone's like they're not going to increase their offer real madrid are fixed that's it they're not going to do it they're not going to do it they're not going to do it and then they did it and i don't think that's necessarily unexpected to the extent that But I think it sort of leaves them in a better position on both sides, right?

34:12James McNicholas: Where he's got very good agents and they've negotiated this potential rise with Real Madrid. It also, in light of this, gives them greater leverage if they do want to pursue the Arsenal opportunity, in inverted commas, to say, well, look, Real Madrid are giving us this. And, you know, maybe you can, I know you've gone far and you're trying very hard to, but, you know, what more can you do here? What more? Were you surprised by that development yesterday? So maybe I'm an idiot and your mind may vary on that, but I was surprised. I think my optimism that we could get this deal done was based on an intuition that was based on nothing, that Madrid wouldn't raise their offer.

34:59that he had demands may be too strong, but he had requests of Madrid, like a signing on bonus, a renewal bonus essentially, which the reporting was that Madrid don't do that. They don't want to do that. That he wanted an improved image rights deal that they'd only ever broken for Mbappe and they didn't want to do that, wouldn't do that. That he wanted to be paid similar to Mbappe and they didn't regard him as deserving that level and not wanting to go to that level. All the way that things were reported. I had this sort of thing of like, do you hire Jose Mourinho if you really want to keep Vinny?

35:32No, no, I get that. And do you want to have Vinny tied to this project for another four or five seasons at Galactico wages? Or is there a future for Madrid where they want to shift Mbappe left? They want to bring in a Hollander. They want to revitalize this project in a different way under a new manager and go in a different direction. And so in my mind, I thought, if you're Real Madrid, you can't be seen to be pushing Vinny Jr. out of your club. He's a global superstar. But I thought that the offer that they had on the table was likely as far as they'd go. And what gave me a sense that we could get him was the belief that if our offer was better, Roc Nation may say to Vinny, you should go try this new thing.

36:09This is a much better offer. Once Real Madrid, I guess, capitulated and decided, no, we can't just let this guy walk out of our club and have raised their offer to something that, at least according to David Ornstein, reflects his importance to the club, then I think it's hard to see because I've just not seen stars at the peak of their powers leave Real Madrid. That's not something I've seen before.

36:34James McNicholas: Are they, you know, is there a possibility that, you know, and I know the sort of behind the scenes, the whispers are that like, it's more likely he stays with Real Madrid than comes to Arsenal. Whether he stays at Real Madrid and signs a new contract or not, that's a different question, right? But is there a chance that Real Madrid are playing sort of 3D chess here, saying that, well, even if we up the offer, he can take it, or we can demand a little bit more from Arsenal, knowing that Arsenal are going to have to push the boat out even further if they want to sign this guy and pay a transfer fee, whatever that might be.

37:07James McNicholas: You know, listen, hopium, copium, whatever you want to call it. I think it's... I do trust the information that we're receiving, and I do trust the people who have that information, who behind the scenes are saying, it feels like it's going back the other way, having been a bit more encouraging from an arsehole perspective. So I don't want to downplay that or make it seem like I'm not believing the information that we're hearing. Nevertheless, I still kind of think that there are, that this is still a relatively, potentially a fluid situation where there isn't anything quite set in stone yet. And by virtue of the sheer size of this potential renewal or this deal, that there's a possibility that it can go back the other way.

37:58James McNicholas: Does that make any sense to you? Or do you think now, well, we had the chance. It's kind of gone. We need to think about what next. It makes sense. But if you're trying to think probabilistically, right, just think about the dynamics of a negotiation. At the start of the negotiation, what was reported is they were quite far apart. They were far apart. And in any negotiation, if you're far apart, the only way a deal is going to happen is if both parties move. Right. Is if you move to meet me, I move to meet you. From what I've seen in negotiation, just over life, if both parties start to move, a deal eventually gets done.

38:37Where deals don't get done is if one party draws a line in the sand and says, this is where we are and we're not moving. And the reporting early on was that Madrid had made their offer. It was the best offer they were going to make. They weren't going to move. And in my mind, that's when deals don't get done. Once both parties start coming to the table and move their offer and improve their offer, that tends, in my experience, in my mind, to indicate that both parties want to find a way to get the deal done. And if Vinny wants to stay and Madrid are now willing to move and try to meet him to a place where he can accept what they're offering, probabilistically speaking, I think the most likely outcome is he stays.

39:13Does it mean there is no chance this turns? Of course not. It could turn. Arsenal could improve their offer even more. And Vinny could decide that he wants to be the guy instead of competing to be the guy with other the guys. Now, whether you think he'd be the guy at Arsenal is a different question. So I think, yes, of course, it could still turn, but probabilistically speaking, based on the motions of this negotiation right now, it feels like it's heading towards a renewal.

39:39James McNicholas: So there will be people who say, and maybe with some justification, but I think it's an interesting talking point, that Arsenal have been a pawn in a game between Vinicius Junior and Real Madrid. And I think you could make that argument, right? You could say, what's a way to get a better deal where you want to stay is by introducing a third party. then the question becomes like were arsenal naive or stupid to even pursue this to allow themselves to be used i don't think so i don't believe that to be true i think arsenal if they thought they had a chance to sign vinicius jr should have taken that chance because we've talked about arsenal as a team that or as a club maybe that needs to demonstrate the right amount of ambition in the transfer market.

40:29James McNicholas: So we've done that and we've done it recognizing that it was going to be very complicated and very difficult. And there was always the possibility that Arsenal's interest allowed Vinicius Jr. to get a deal more aligned with what he wants from Real Madrid, because that's just kind of how it works, right? But should we have not done something because that was a possibility? I don't think so. I think you, if you really, really want to change the perception of your club to increase the quality of your team you have to take any potential opportunity to do that and arsenal were prepared to go a long way financially and prepared to deal with the consequences of that financial deal in order to bring this guy in um but that i that idea that we've just been played we've just been used they've just sort of had us over a barrel and every, you know, Real Madrid and Vinicius will come out of this laughing on the other side.

41:27James McNicholas: You know, I get it. I understand why people might think that way. But I also think you've got to go for a player like this. If you feel like you can do it, the wrong thing to do is not go for it. Yeah, I think this is just an opportunity to criticize the club if that's how you're so inclined. And I understand if you're frustrated and we haven't necessarily been as good at buying attacking players as we might like. And you may have felt this was never realistic. And if you felt this was never realistic, then you wonder why we waste our time with it. If you've just won the Premier League and you've made it to the Champions League final and you've been one of the best clubs in Europe for multiple years and you're trying to improve and the biggest area you need to improve is bringing in better talent in the attack, there's not a huge universe of players that do that.

42:11And this is one of those players. I mean, going into the summer, what were we saying? If you could get any player in the world, well, we need a left winger. Well, any player in the world who would be, well Vinny but that's not realistic well you have to be in for that player if you have an opportunity to get him if you're Arsenal Football Club you have to it's a very difficult transfer it was always going to be difficult if you don't go for it you are not showing proper ambition and I think there are clubs that get used in the media to get a player a better deal I think those are cases where the sort of stalking horse bidder so to speak where their interest isn't authentic.

42:46It isn't real. It's being portrayed in the media to try to get an outcome. I think this interest was real. I think the club have been in contact with Roc Nation. I think that this was a very serious negotiation. All of the reporting indicates that and reporting from legitimate sources not just sort of ITKs on social media. And you know I think look if you're trying to buy a house and someone else is trying to buy the house and you wind up having to pay a little bit more and you get the house. Was the other person used? No, they did help the seller get a better deal, but you both wanted the house, and the person who had the better offer got the house.

43:22Like, the mere, we may have gotten Vinny more money at Madrid if that's what happens, but I don't think that's why we were involved. I think this was an authentic effort to buy the player where the player and his agent were authentically considering a move, and had Real Madrid not improved their offer, I think he would be at Arsenal. So, no, I don't think you can demand of the club to show ambition and to go for the best players in world football and then complain when we don't get them because it's very hard to get those players. I mean, Manchester City tried to get Declan Rice and they didn't get him.

43:57Were they used in the negotiation with West Ham? No, I think they wanted Declan Rice and we just, we got him. That's just not always going to be the outcome.

44:04James McNicholas: Yeah. Then the question, let's just sort of make the crazy assumption that he does stay at Real Madrid, however that happens, either with a new deal or with the possibility of leaving on a Bosman, which, you know, is not beyond the realms of possibility either. It's a risky one for a player because you pick up an injury and then all of a sudden you're kind of fucked. But anyway, let's make that crazy assumption that he stays at Real Madrid. The question becomes for Arsenal, what now? because I do think for all the justification that we've made for going for Vinicius Jr., you have a situation to manage as a football club because that kind of a deal raises expectations, raises hopes.

44:49James McNicholas: You don't just do deals to keep fans happy. We all know that. You do deals like this to try and make your team better. Nevertheless, people will be disappointed if you don't get this player because the pursuit of this guy isn't just because he's available. It's because you want to make your team better. And I think anybody listening to this could reasonably argue that there is significant room for improvement in Arsenal's forward line. Of course. Right? Going after a player of the quality of Vinicius Jr. is also tacit admission that despite the fact this is an opportunity, you're saying we have identified this area of our team as in need of like urgent improvement but we recognize that that's where we can improve and we're also willing in order to make that improvement as i said pay the big money on the the the transfer fee pay the big money on the wages shatter your wage structure shatter your image rights structure there's a talk that or a report that they were going to give Vinny 100 % of his image rights as a way of incentivizing him to come into the club, right?

46:03James McNicholas: So Arsenal's willingness to go as far as they can financially is an indication that they know they need to do something in this part of the team. So how do you manage that? We've seen the club pivot before. Is it good enough now to say, well, we couldn't get that player, and we don't really want to spend that kind of money on anybody else and that's understandable. You don't spend that money on anybody else. But is it now incumbent on Arsenal to demonstrate the ability to pivot as we have in the past? Because Vinicius or nothing doesn't feel like a smart strategy. And I know the other night you made the point on stage at our live event in Dublin that you think our squad is really, really good And I agree with that, that our squad is really, really good.

46:57James McNicholas: But if you go for Vinicius and don't get him and then don't get anybody else, do you leave yourself open to hiding for nothing when in the first few weeks of the season's goals are a bit hard to come by and everyone goes, well, you know what you should have done? You know? Yeah. I mean, look, first of all, you have to be able to distinguish your emotional reaction to this from your intellectual reaction. Like I am heartbroken if we're not going to get Vinny Jr. Because that was very exciting and I allowed myself to believe. And I don't think without justification that it could happen. So yeah, that sucks.

47:31Intellectually, to your point, right now I think we're betting odds favorites to win the Premier League, right? Like we have a very, very, very good squad. And I don't know that that squad is any worse. I would argue it's quite a bit better with the addition of Bruno Gimaraes. And now has easily the best midfield in the league, if not the best in the world. We're better. And we're going to compete to win and most likely be favored to win the Premier League when the season starts that Friday night against Coventry. But that doesn't mean you don't do everything you can to not only try to win the league, but try to win the other competitions.

48:03And Mikel Arteta spoke about that. And they asked him, is your goal this season not just to win the Premier League, but to win the European Championship? He said, yes, we want to win all the trophies available to us. I don't think the attack is sufficient to feel confident that we are doing everything in our power to win those trophies. Look, I've said this before, and if there's one thing I'll do is I'll always say it again. Say it again, that's for sure. 71 goals, in my opinion, won't win the league again. No, no. And I think the firepower that we have offensively is not sufficient to want to try to go win the Champions League because ultimately when you need that goal to win you a tournament, I'm not sure we have the firepower for it.

48:41Now, if you offered me Vinny Jr. or our star players to just be fit all season, I might pick the latter. because honestly, if Kai Osaka comes back fit and if Kai Havertz is fit and if Martin Odegaard is fit, right, we're going to look a lot better. We are still thinking of the arsenal that had a lot of Nani Maduike, Gabriel Martinelli and Victor Jokeres front threes during the run-in. And that's not something we want to see again. But let me be clear. We should be signing another forward and a left-sided forward and a player that can be the quote-unquote first choice there. What I don't want us to do is just fire the money cannons that were aimed at Vinny, at whoever the hell else is out there, and overuse our financial resources on a player that doesn't warrant that.

49:26James McNicholas: Like you don't want another, with all due respect, another Nani Maduweke, right? Who was pretty big money, seven trillion pounds we paid for Nani Maduweke. 70 trillion. 70 trillion pounds we paid for Nani Maduweke, who, you know, played a role, but didn't necessarily deliver what you expect a player in that position to deliver in terms of goals and assists. Like what I'm saying, like, okay, we were willing to go to 120 million transfer fee and 500 grand a week. Do we want to go to 100 million and 350 a week for a Nico Williams? Like, no, I'm not sure that we should now take this pent up enthusiasm to spend big on that star forward and aim it at someone who is not at the level because then that's financial firepower you can't use to go get an actual star player when that player becomes available.

50:14So as much as I wanted Vinny and as much as I think we should still try to find a solution for the front three, the players that I would be very excited about joining are not in huge supply. The names are pretty familiar. No, that's true.

50:30James McNicholas: There isn't like a lot out there. I just feel like that pursuit of Vinicius Jr., whether it turns out to be unsuccessful or not, and it does look a bit more like not, it raises expectations. And, you know, we've said the decision to sign players is not about keeping fans happy. As much as we're all invested in transfers, as much as we all want to see those things happen. It just, the optics aren't great. You know, if you're saying we're going to go for this and then come the end of August, even with justification, intellectual justification like you've made, if nothing else happens. That has a ripple effect, I think, through the fan base in terms of how people feel.

51:21James McNicholas: rightly or wrongly because I think there is a big midfield upgrade like Christian Norgard out Bruno Gimaraes in is a significant midfield upgrade and I also take your point about if Saka's fit and if Saka gets back to his best we've got one of the best players a Vinny level player of our own not quite Vinny level I think but at his best he was in that conversation for sure but we haven't seen that best since that hamstring injury So I understand why people would be skeptical about that. Like, I do get it. But we know from experience, even last season, you know, not just online either. I think, you know, you could feel it sometimes in the stadium that the nervousness that permeated through the fan base for all the reasons we've talked about and explained.

52:11James McNicholas: And ultimately, we got ourselves over the line and won the Premier League and were champions. And it's fucking great. But you could feel that. You could feel that. And I just wonder if you run the risk of that dynamic being part of our season, that every time we don't score a goal or every game where we struggle to score a goal, it becomes the, well, you should have, you should have, you should have. And I think we, you know, we do understand how difficult it is to find those players. I think where it's even more about. So let's say we were never linked with Vinny Jr. And someone just said to you, this summer, Arsenal are going to buy this guy, Christos Solis.

52:50They're going to buy a good, competent defender. We don't know who that is, and hopefully that does happen. And they're going to buy Bruno Guimaraes. How would you have ranked that summer? I would have had that as a 6.5 out of 10. I still, or maybe a 7, but like short that attacking player we need. But where I think the criticism I'm not prepared to levy at the club about the Vinny pursuit, I am prepared to say, look, it seems pretty clear from reporting that Mikel Arteta wanted Morgan Rodgers, rated Morgan Rodgers, and believed he could be the guy for us. Now, you may say we were right not to go to the money for that player.

53:26Fine. That it was an overpay. Don't go to the money. Fine. But that was the target. We wanted him. We did not get him. He went to Chelsea. Then we pivoted to a very hard-to-get target, and it appears, as of the time of the recording this, that we're not going to get that player. It will be starting to build up a bit of a catalog of key targets Mikel Arteta identified that were not delivered. And the track record, at least in attack, for recruiting from outside of the club has not been particularly strong. Now, we still won the league. We still made the Champions League final. We're still very, very good, where we've recruited in other areas of the pitch, midfield and defense in particular we've been sensational but the next sort of final piece to go to that level mikhail keeps talking about wanting to take the club to a new level i think you have to have stars and attack to go to that level i i think that is the thing that brings in the new enthusiasm brings in the excitement gets people fired up i said this at the sugar club the other night but like if you said to me what what are the three hallmarks of a legendary manager right one is they win shit and Mikel Arteta has now done that and he had done that before the FA Cup but he's now won something big so he's on the start of that trajectory two is they get some of the biggest best players to play for them right Declan Rice I think would be in that category maybe Bruno Grimorich we have some that we made ourselves in our academy yeah fine but three is that they also play football that captures the imagination and delights the fan base and that the fans say, I loved showing up to watch Mikel Arteta's Arsenal.

54:55And I think that's been more mixed. There have been times, certainly we scored 91 goals two seasons or three seasons ago. That was sensational. I am sure Mikel Arteta would like Arsenal to be able to be more dynamic and go up a level in terms of the attacking football we play. And that I only think you get by bringing in elite talent. So that's a long way of saying, even without the Vinny pursuit, there was a need to bring in and to elevate the level in the front three we have not done that yet and that for me would be a huge miss if we don't accomplish that's yeah that's kind of where

55:27James McNicholas: i am with this and that's kind of what i've been alluding to in in this conversation i do wonder you know if the morgan rogers situation was informed by the venetius jr opportunity if you like because it looked like rogers was going to come and then it all went quiet and that chelsea swooped in and hijacked. But maybe that's because we decided, well, if you can sign Morgan Rogers or you can sign Vinicius Jr., who do you go for? I mean, for me, there's no question, right? No question. I think the spending on Morgan Rogers would have been an interesting talking point. I don't think it would have been a slam dunk.

55:58He's the right guy at that price for that position.

56:01James McNicholas: No, absolutely not. Whereas Vinny is a slam dunk, the right guy for that position. Absolutely. Yeah, anyway, listen, we'll have to wait and see what they do or how things develop. time of recording is about 11 a.m. on Thursday morning. So, you know, by the time this evening comes around, there could be something else happening. I just think that the club need to think about this very, very seriously, that the next level of improvement, as we've said, is in the attack. And that kind of star quality, however difficult it is to find, you've really got to push the boat out to try and do it. They've done that or are doing that with Vinicius.

56:35James McNicholas: I don't think they can just stop if Vinicius doesn't happen. Is there a name that, like one or two names, like if, since it doesn't look like it's going to be Vinicius, do you have a sense of who it would be that would excite you where you'd say, yep, we pivoted correctly. This was a good pivot. That's, you know, that's a really great question. I mean, the one that springs to mind is Julian Alvarez, who I think would take the attack to a different level. You'd still be talking about a Martinelli and Solis left-hand side, one or the other, because I don't think he's coming in to play off the left.

57:09James McNicholas: No, no, no. Yeah, I think that one's really complicated as well. So I understand it. I understand it. But, you know, once you sort of take the lid off the Pandora's box, so to speak, of Vinicius Jr. or a player like Vinicius Jr., you know, it's out there. It's in the wild. Would you try to pull a Chelsea to Liverpool with a Bradley Barkola? Is that a name that you think? Not at the money that PSG are looking for. I mean, I think he's a good player, but I don't think he's quite at the level. But then I find it really difficult to get a true sense of what anybody is worth these days because the transfer fees are so inflated that we're sitting here not justifying, but talking ourselves into a£60-70 million move for Esri Kansa.

57:55James McNicholas: And I get it, but that's also nuts. It's completely nuts. Of course it is. It's just you don't get to go into the store and complain that the prices are too high and walk out with the merchandise. The prices may be too high, but then you have to walk out of the store. Well, you know, you could also shoplift. Well, that's true. So you're saying just send in a team, take the player, you know. Exactly. Bring him to some black site item for a little while. Give him a haircut. Bit of plastic surgery and then come back. Hey, we found this amazing new talent somewhere. Yeah. Anyway, listen. Vinicius Senior.

58:30James McNicholas: nobody will ever know my name is mr snrub um okay listen we're gonna leave it there because we have got a bit of uh traveling to do we're going to uh see a little bit of ireland over the next couple of days so we're gonna get ourselves on the road shortly i'll let you do what you need to do with your bit of this podcast but uh for now elliot thanks very much and uh I'll see you downstairs. Sounds good.

59:21James McNicholas: specialists are there to help you launch with confidence. This is podcast advertising without barriers. Get started at acast.com slash advertise.

59:35James McNicholas: Thank you very much indeed to Elliot. You can block him in all the usual social media places. I can't really block him here because he's actually downstairs in my house right now before we go on a little bit of a trip, not around Ireland per se, but sort of down and then back up and across. That's kind of what we're doing. Hitting Kerry later on today, and then we'll be in Galway tomorrow before coming back to Dublin. So looking forward to that. And who knows what might happen in the time that we are on the road, so to speak. So look, I'm going to leave it there for today. As ever, thank you very much indeed, as always, for being here, for supporting, for downloading, for sharing the podcast, for just being part of everything that we do here on Arseblog.

1:00:17James McNicholas: You can join myself and James on Monday for an Arsecast Extra. We'll be talking about the Borussia Dortmund game, which I think is the Emirates Cup game. So we'll talk about that on Monday. Hope you have a great weekend. For now, take it easy, folks, and we will catch you on the next one. Until then, cheers. Bye-bye.

1:00:57I'm out.

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