AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making w/ Nik Suresh

29:25So like, it's just this, I like, I don't know what to tell you. It's insane. It doesn't make any sense. It's like this huge mass delusion event that I feel like we might be writing about for the next 20 years. Like, it's just fascinating. Well, I think what the, the contra to all of this is, it also feels like it could reverse very aggressively and suddenly, because if everyone's just kind of sitting around being like yeah i actually fucking hate or like there's a contingent of people that's impossible to measure of of people who are going to kind of fucking sucks i kind of fucking hate this but i'm going along with it and enough people start just saying they don't like it it just feels like one day that the mood could shift because this is what i've been predicting the whole time that just at some point everyone will stop doing ai or someone they like and respect will say fuck this i'm not doing it anymore and then everyone will walk away they're just looking for permission.

30:19Correct. We're basically talking about coordination problems, right? Which is a thing where a bunch of people want to say a certain thing. If one person puts their hand up, that person will be killed. So no one wants to put their hand up first. What you need is just some event for everyone to say the same thing at the same time. And what's interesting is we're here because a different problem was solved, which is a lot of executives and board members and people are very easily excitable. They always had this sort of latent level of mania, AI coming out in the form of LLMs, solve that problem for them.

30:53Because if you put your hand up and you said, I'm going all in on the metaverse, like that's kind of a joke. It was silly back then. So we first solve the problem by giving them something to coordinate and be frantic around. And now we're just waiting for the first like hyperscaler to collapse for the reverse event. Or just such an Adela or probably not Sundar Pichai with the way that Google's earnings just went. But someone is going to eventually just go, fuck this. I truly, I think it could be meta, but also who knows with that wacky son of a bitch, Mark Zuckerberg, what he'll get up to next.

31:28I hear he's working on a Tamagotchi. Like an actual AI power. That zany guy. He's wacky. You wacky son of a gun. It is really cool though. It kind of reminds me of your other piece I love, which is brainwashing executive today, but the most extreme version of LinkedIn psychosis, where it's just everything you do is an artifact of how much LinkedIn you consume, except everyone is LinkedIn now. Everyone. Can I talk about that brainwash piece for a second? Yes, please, please. Please do. Okay. So the whole thing in the piece is one of my executives, when I still did work for myself, came in and just asked everyone at the company about a product called Monte Carlo, which is like super niche, like fucking nerd thing.

32:13And we were like, why are you talking to all of us about this in our one-on-ones? You only talk to us once a year. This would be like my granddad coming in and going like, tell me about like quantum cryptography. Like there's no way that this is a topic you should be interested in, right? Like it's just so far out of your wheelhouse. Yeah, where'd you hear about this? Like when my kid comes in and says a new word, I'm like, where'd you hear that? Now, I did hear about this and it was LinkedIn. So they did tell me where they heard about it from, which is dire. But I don't know if you saw this, the CEO of Monte Carlo, not knowing I'd written about the company with, you know, I wouldn't say criticize them, but I had some question marks and I was like, who are you advertising to and what the hell's wrong with your website?

32:55So she took that piece and boosted it and said, it's, you know, being shared with executives and boardrooms around the world. It might be the most circulated thing in boardrooms right now. I have no way of measuring that. And then if you look up the Monte Carlo website, from someone who has just gone, you know, I like this piece. I think it raises some good points. Monte Carlo, I don't know if it's always at this, but it's now MonteCarlo.ai. And they've completely shifted their messaging because they are no longer a data observability platform. They're now an agent observability platform. Whatever the fuck that means.

33:32Jesus fucking Christ. what's great as well though is the reaction to your piece and i've been looking it up it is i occasionally see it with mine but i'm more direct with how i feel about ai people so they're less willing to share it but the amount of people i've seen sharing it who are very clearly the subject of the piece is insane to me it's just like people very funny it's just like people like yeah wow i can't believe people are missed uh people are all uh using ai for no reason i of course I'm nothing to do with this. All my AI solutions are perfect. I love AI so much, but these other imbeciles who are using it wrong, it's genuinely driving me insane, if I'm going to be honest.

34:17I have a phrase for this, which I think is novel. I might have invented this. It's the N minus two idiot solution, which is if you look around a room and you go, that guy is the smartest person in here. Everyone will agree. And in a room full of sufficiently, you know, ridiculous or compromised people, they're all okay with it because they assume they're number two. Right. So you just need to leave them enough wiggle room. What you can't do is go only one person in this room is smart. You can go two of you are smart and everyone's okay with that. They'll all agree on the first person. They all assume they're the second person.

34:51And yeah, a lot of the coverage has been, you know, this insane phenomenon. And, you know, credit to possibly the Monte Carlo CEO. Maybe she didn't say this in so many words, but maybe what she was actually saying was, I feel trapped by the situation. My whole company's pivoted to AI agents, even though it doesn't make sense. Maybe that was her gentle way of screaming into the void. I don't actually know, but it is very funny. I kind of want to do a blog at some point that's just, you can stop using AI. It's just like, literally, you can stop this at any time. You you feel trapped you can just leave you kind of did that at the end of the piece you did a very empathetic thing at the end saying here's how to deal with the organizational ai stuff if you're told this well just quit and in other situations you could also do something else it's just it's genuinely sickening it is actually sickening in a way that it pisses me off i've said this before in not so many words but this is meant to be an industry of meritocracy this is meant to be the industry where people, oh, we do things for efficiency reasons and we do things because they get good business results.

36:05And now I'm realizing, you've kind of told me this in the past as well, everyone was lying about that. They were just doing stuff that made them feel good. Yeah. I kind of wish we had that. Every so often you'll hear someone say something like, the issue with capitalism is it optimizes everything for money. We just throw away every other value for money and efficiency and productivity. And God, I wish that was true, because we somehow have like the worst of both worlds where we're throwing away other, every other value and somehow still not achieving peak efficiency, right? Like we're doing all these horrible, hideous things.

36:43And then you look, well, how much money are we making? It's like, not even that much money. We're wasting it all on data centers. I mean, the data centers alone are just fucking insane to me. I've been, what's really good as well is on the subject of meritocracy in numbers, trying to just pull together very basic things like, is any of this profitable? And asking people and them getting angry at you. Just very angry, just agitated, being like, why'd you keep asking these questions? Why'd you keep doing this? And I grew up in a rough neighborhood, I've met my fair share of scam artists, and 100 % of the time, if someone gets angry at you for asking for things like that, that's because they are full of shit.

37:23yeah yeah uh you know i was in psychology before i was in it and you see that a lot in things like multi-level marketing scams and stuff you know like they're if you go hey isn't this a pyramid scheme they've got the whole script which is like what do you mean it's a pyramid scheme what's it what's your understanding of a pyramid scheme answer me you fucker and it's yeah it's sort of the same thing here didn't we um maybe we talked about this previously but have you seen like that clip of um you know a very very gentle interview with sam altman and at the end this interviewer who clearly loves him very gently goes like so what's the plan for profitability it's just like oh yeah i've had enough of these questions no he's just like we're making way more than 13 billion dollars this year yeah you know and if you need someone to buy your stock and what's funny is satchin adela was on that call like just your boy your yeah just satchin adela just sitting there with the magic roundabout thing.

38:22Just nothing going on up there, waiting for the next input. The world's most - Just like the little monkey with the symbol that does backflips, just sitting in Sachin Adela's head. It's going - I was going to say, I'm imagining the little macOS speech ball. It's just a little spinning widget up there. The thing is, Sam Altman will never talk to me they've already told me he won't but that's because i know within five minutes he will get pissed off at me because it would just be really easy to just be like hey why don't you make any money why'd you lose so much money sam well we make money and then just you get more and more immature until he eventually tries to get at you through the screen like a dog that sees his reflection easy peasy he'd try and kill me within a day i mean there's no reason to right like no As a PR person, I would rather kill myself than put Sam Altman on a call with me.

39:21Like, I've just... That would actually be the appropriate choice. Whatever you do, do not put Ed Zich on a call with Sam Altman. Yeah, it's also... It's like only a losing proposition for him. Yeah. Because let's say he comes on and he has the greatest showing of his whole life. You know, like he just... He feels every question perfectly. that is the same outcome as just talking to another journalist that's going to jerk him off for an hour right there's no reason for him to take that risk when he can get so much positive coverage from people that aren't going to ask him any questions and i will only ask him the most annoying i'll just ask him are you happy and he'll his head will start like erupting in smoke anyway anyway so we've kind of got off topic i realized i wanted to actually talk to you and break down something that I've heard with various people, which is this whole issue of demos with AI, that AI is really good at making a good enough demo to sell to someone.

40:18And you kind of covered this before AI was as far down the hole as possible with Brainwash and Executive, but I get the sense that it's just very good at doing enough to sell an imbecile on something. Yeah. And I'm willing to be a little bit more charitable here because it doesn't have to be an imbecile necessarily. It just has to be someone who is not proficient with tech. Because when you work with something sufficiently complicated, you understand there's a lot of difficulty around the fine details and deploying a piece of software and the design and achieving business value, whatever you want to do.

40:56But as an end user, I don't really know how my oven works. I just have some knobs that I twiddle and then the oven works, right? So if you turned up and you said, you know, I've got nanobots that assemble ovens perfectly and then it does it and it bakes a pie. If I don't eat the pie or, you know, whatever, I might go, hey, that was really, really cool. And it is genuinely impressive enough that possibly no one would blame me for investing in it initially. Yeah, because you got shown something that looked plausible. Right. And not just plausible, like literally impossible prior to 2020. Like you couldn't do this sort of trick.

41:38And then the next day you start to find out like, hey, well, you know what, like this, this pie is really bad. And it turns out the oven only has one setting and sometimes it catches fire. And, you know, I still might not be an imbecile because what I saw upfront was so impressive. I would be an imbecile if I kept buying it four years later, right? Like there was a period where the overinvestment was understandable. Well, this actually kind of gets back to Brainwashed and Executive because there's the point in there that the people that buy software are often not the people that use it. So you just have to impress the CIO or the CTO or the CEO enough.

42:17And that person does not have the practical on the ground experience to make that decision, but usually does. Yes. And that is basically what makes not just this con, but like a lot of enterprise bad software possible. You just go, hey, you know, your customer support monkeys, they need a new platform. Do you want to put them on Zendesk? And then someone buys Zendesk. And as the CEO, like, you're never going to log into Zendesk. You should. I actually think, you know, most executives I meet aren't that busy. They're pretty busy. Yeah, they got nothing on. I'm serious. Yeah, like, but they absolutely could just go down and sit next to someone for like an hour and check out what their work looks like.

42:58That might do a lot more for sort of a long term company strategy than whatever they're doing, like going to big meetings. Look, there's probably some level of wealth where that's not true if you're worth personally worth enough billions. But yeah, tons of people worth hundreds of millions of dollars still take the time to do that. And again, they run very profitable companies, and they don't waste their time on this stuff beyond what's necessary.

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46:04It really is just the grimmest thing ever. And I'm guessing that the reason that LLMs are so good at creating these demos is you can vibe code together something that has buttons that work. And because the buttons work, it's good enough. Yeah, the buttons do work. And that's the thing. The buttons do work, which is why it's sort of understandable. But then you had other problems, right? Like, you know, the buttons work until you load it on mobile. And then this button disappears and that button doesn't work. or two people click the button at the same time and it puts down like, you know, it doesn't lock inventory.

46:39So now you've got minus one in the warehouse. Like all these things. And it's not that an LLM can't solve them, especially with human guidance. It's that it hasn't delivered on the promise of human takes its hand off and software is solved. It's also very likely not running on your infrastructure, right? Yeah, I mean, a lot of the time it's literally just running on a laptop and you haven't solved complex deployment issues and that kind of thing. But again, I understand, right? Like if I'm talking to a random CFO, they don't know what infrastructure means in the context of IT. So it's all basically understandable, but it's the same reason sane people don't get super excited about developments that they're not specialists in, right?

47:24I don't walk around every time there's like a new breakthrough in medicine going, oh my God, this is going to change everything. I go, I don't know how to evaluate this. I have no idea if this is game changing. I'm just going to shut up and let doctors talk about it. But this feels like, actually, I think I've kind of worked out something, which is the problem isn't so, well, the problem is the fact that you've got executives buying something that they don't really understand. But that's been a problem before. The problem is they're more incentivized to do it. Instead of that one example of an executive getting kind of brainwashed into buying Monte Monte Carlo.

47:59It's, I will buy anything with AI on it. And in fact, I believe that if I don't do this, I will be under existential threat. Yeah, 100%. And for what it's worth, that executive didn't buy Monte Carlo in the end, they just wasted a bunch of time. And I suspect if Monte Carlo had AI on their front page, they would have bought it, right? Just instantly. I think they would have been like, yeah, especially because with this whole thing where no one is actually using the tools. It lets you tell your CEO that you've made an investment in AI and it's transforming something. Don't ask any questions about what it's transforming.

48:36It's actually hard to make businesses more profitable, especially established ones, right? Startups can do whatever they want because they have nothing to lose. But if you've been in business for five years or 10 years or 20 years, there's a lot of things you're doing and it's not as easy as just going, claw double my profits. If that worked, we'd already be seeing it. That doesn't work. It kind of sounds like most software doesn't solve problems. Well, I don't mean that. I don't mean that no software solves any problems. I just mean people regularly buy software that does not actually improve their companies.

49:10Yes, that is pretty common. And this is not an LLM point, right? This is just generally true. Yeah, yeah. And I really, I must be clear. I mean this on a much larger scale than LLMs. Yes. I would say a lot of software does not deliver on its promises. They tend to have much stronger sales teams than they have. Firstly, literally programmers, like the programmers tend not to be very good at a lot of companies. I had to explain to a physio yesterday that we're not a regulated field. Like this blessed, very happy man was just like, oh, yeah, they wouldn't let you program a computer without like a license.

49:47I had to study physio for so long.

49:53I know. I felt like I was breaking his heart. That's really fucking good. I don't know. I kind of think you should have to now. Okay. I kind of think we need a computer licensing. Well, maybe, right? Like anything else serious. Like, you know, if you want to be a firefighter, you train, you take it seriously. Yeah. I had to explain to him, like, hey, man, like, they'll let you program if you've read zero books on the topic. Right? You can be a principal engineer. And he went, that can't be true. I've met people who earned like$300 ,000 that have never read one book. Like it's. Yeah. It's so good.

50:30To be clear, that regulation of to do software engineering at a company, you need a license. Maybe not. But I think we can extend it to you can only use social media on a sit down computer. That's a good start. And you can only talk about programming if you've read these three books. Like you have to qualify to be able to post about it. You can't post about it. Yes, I think it would be helpful if we had some sort of accreditation that lent some trustworthiness to the right people. Because I don't even read comments I get on things anymore. I do emails. If someone emails me, I'll read it. But like the quality of comment is so bad.

51:10And it's not just people that, you know, disagree with me. A lot of them have literal reading comprehension issues. I rarely get like an actual critique on what I've written. I get critiques of what people think I've written. But even sometimes people will agree with me and I'll see they've also missed the point. And I'm like, well, I'm just going to stop reading these. But to answer your question, though, about software, you know, not being very good, there's the quality issue of a lot of programmers aren't very good. You can have badly programmed stuff that is still good enough to deliver value to someone.

51:41But a lot of software is fundamentally ill-conceived. So an executive will hear some pitch that's like, well, if you get this software, you you'll have 10 % more throughput on your customer support whenever. A lot of the time, that is just not true. So they do the whole migration into a new system, and there's just no outcome at the end of it. They just don't see an improvement. That's, I mean, it really just feels like the entire software industry is based on nothing at this point. It's just, I keep thinking of calamity at this point, because we've got tons of people coding with LLMs, not reading the code anymore.

52:19You've got software being bought by people that don't use it and don't really understand it. And now just a mass acceleration of that problem that already existed for 10 or 15 years. I think probably the problem we're discussing is probably at least 15 years because it's like a very SaaS-based problem because software as a service allowed you to subscribe to software rather than buying an expensive license up front, which sounds good right up until you're in year three and there's been three price increases and you realize you're paying Oracle. but it feels that we're just accelerating dramatically towards something breaking somewhere at scale like i i really am i mean we were talking about github last night right yeah oh my god the github outages have been so funny i've been really enjoying them they uh i think i mentioned uh that that uh what was it called oh my god i'm i'm gonna disappoint my friends so much forgot the name of the piece but it's uh about github and like their massive outages uh it's it's by efron lake github used by basically every every person in software engineering and it it has the uptime of an unstable startup with two thousand dollars yeah i would say a startup with two thousand dollars can achieve higher uptime than that like i that's actually probably true there look there's some uh extenuating circumstances like GitHub deals with a volume of traffic that a startup doesn't, but they're not broke, right?

53:52Like what's going on here? And more importantly, they weren't having these issues a couple of years ago. Like they're doing something wrong. I've heard it's related to, you know, Azure migrations from inside Microsoft. It probably doesn't help that they're slinging LLM slop everywhere too uh in in that post by uh by efron he he did talk about how almost every change log they've had has just used the word agent and ai over and over he never sees the word oh yeah yeah there's no like stability or the word improvement it's just agentic i think that there are now 11 different companies that claim you can do agents with credit cards now as well it's just like that It's like the tech industry is all just kayfabe.

54:34Sorry, what do you mean agents with credit cards? What does that mean? Well, that's a good fucking question, Nick. They are suggesting that you can connect an API of some sort to an AI agent, and then the AI agent will go and buy something with your credit card. I mean, look, as a matter of technical truth, that is true. why would you do that that's such a bad idea well because you were you you love well i mean no one uses it no one's actually using these things doordash is doing a command line interface now why what is good fucking going on dude this whole industry is well what i think it is is just especially bay area people have just been driven completely insane by this stuff and they are The way I describe it is it's a community of 30 to 50-year-olds desperately trying to impress 22-year-olds, and they're all desperate to make the, like, they're all like, on God, this is permanent underclass.

55:43And they kind of look around. They're like, yeah, agentic, right? Fuck. Command line interface. For real, for real. Yeah, on God, no cap. and it's just insane because even like mark mark andreessen being like based it's like shut the fuck up you are 100 years old did mark andreessen say based i believe i believe he has said based more than once that's actually worse than all of the ai investments go fuck your mosaic browser you fuck it's just like it's just like these people don't know anything and i think we're just because the argument about the capex for example keeps coming back to well these are the richest companies in the world run by some of the greatest tech talent in the world.

56:25What if that isn't true? What if that's not true at all? And in fact, what if it's not run by the smartest people? And indeed, as we've been discussing today, there is an active culture to reduce intelligence across the board. And that's the thing. If I am right, the entire tech industry is going to experience a depression because everyone went insane. Everyone got taken into heaven's gate, except instead of killing themselves and other people they're just doing command line interfaces with fucking doordash i don't understand why you'd want a cli for doordash that's baffling uh but i i i'm not even going to talk about that because it's upsetting me because like i don't like what do they think no see i can't hyphen cli lets you order doordash directly from your agent search stores find the best deals check out and more see like okay no you can't you can't trick me to talking about this i have like 80 different thoughts and i'm not what i love is the first response is boris cherny the head of clawed code saying brb downloading i don't know much about computers but do you do you download a cli like i mean yeah you type in like you know you type in something but like i don't know i just i feel like these are the people with the money and they gave me even half this money i could do basically anything else and make them way more than zero or negative as is happening to them but it's like these people are never going to i this is a horrifying thing to say i realize these people are never going to learn without suffering like it's just it really is that the tech industry i'm not saying i want anyone to suffer i really wish there was a soft landing out of all of this there was a way out of this without genuine depression hitting the tech industry but i think that's the only way anything changes because they've never like the the dot-com bubble was much i mean the telecommunications side was big but the dot-com bubble the tech industry was much smaller back then and i think that something like that is the only thing that could change things because they need an egregious screaming in the face they need to be told not just that they're wrong but they need to be shown it in a graphic way yeah unless they're going to start learning stuff unless they're going to start learning things so you know i had you on my podcast a few weeks ago.

58:57And the guests right after you were the authors of a book called Crisis Engineering. So they did some of the healthcare.gov bailout. One of them, Marina, was the CTO of Veterans Affairs in the US. And the thesis behind crisis engineering is just that organizations don't undergo change unless they're in an acute state of crisis, which is not just a problem. I mean, a crisis so bad that there is a complete dissolution of sensemaking, like panic in the streets. This is sort of true everywhere, right? Like people tend to make big lifestyle changes after a huge divorce or, you know, some massive event like that.

59:34And yeah, I think you're right. I think it's why my advice to most people now is not like, you know, raise a huge stink about this. It's like, if someone is actively hurting something in front of you that you care about because of AI, yes, stand up and say something. If you work at a fire department, and you just need some money to fix a fire hydrant or whatever it is that is important to you right now, we're so far past the point of arguing with these people. I'm like, just ask for your money and ask for an extra$10 ,000 for a chatbot that doesn't work. Fix the problem. Just pretend this doesn't exist until it all blows up.

1:00:12It'll be fine, right? Like I'm just waiting to pick up a bunch of really cheap NVIDIA shares. That's all I'm doing. well that's the and that as we wrap up here that is kind of what i'm telling people which is after this blows up and it will goodness it will there is going to be a lot of money and competency i think you've already kind of seen this as well it's just like people are going to realize because of the crisis to follow the the imbeciles have taken over the business idiots are everywhere and i'm already i mean little pr work i i've done in the last few months even then it's people being like yeah i keep talking to people and they just day i generate fucking everything they don't seem to know anything and i think that that is going to be everywhere the things that people read i don't think it's going to be a utopian society or anything but i think that there is going to be in engineering in any kind of business management role a certain degree of right did you get taken by this because i must be clear once this explodes i am not going to stop pointing out people who fell behind this oh i'm going i'm going to be i i have detailed notes to quote casey newton not speaking about anyone specific about who i might be pointing out here um the i i we will it will actually be i think our civic duty to remind everyone who fell for this And I think the net result of that is competent people are going to make more money.

1:01:45Yeah. And if I could, I have one bit here where I think I'm a bit less optimistic, which is once this blows up, suddenly everyone will pretend that they were never for it, right? Oh, yeah. And a lot of these people are then going to immediately pivot because they have no principles, right? Just chasing money. A lot of these AI experts are going to be to go on LinkedIn and change their byline to AI project cleanup crew, right? Like I think the time to be competent is right now. Like I pay my team entirely through not doing AI. I'm the only fucking guy out here in Melbourne I know that isn't just doing AI projects 24 seven, right?

1:02:24But the market is there and it's maybe the easiest it's ever been to find sensible clients because now they're all signaling when they're insane. Once the bubble blows up, I'll have to find out by like signing the contract and finding out if they suck on the day. Now I don't have to. I just need to see, can they make it through a 40-minute conversation with me without asking me to pivot their whole business to AI? And if they don't do that, they're almost certainly awesome to work with. Well, thankfully, my rautism allows me to document every single person I've ever seen mention AI. And it's really easy to tell.

1:03:01And by the way, every listener of this show, your civic duty when this breaks is take screenshots and respond to anything anti-ai someone says when they try and pretend that they never fell for this this is going to be like the super bowl of this you images oh yeah i've been keeping i have hundreds of screenshots of people saying stuff about ai and it like the dumbest shit in the world i cannot wait i'm gonna be quote posting so much my fucking trackpad breaks i will keep a folder and then i will send it to you right after you invent a death note right oh no no i don't want these people to die i want them to be alive to read how much i'm going to post about them i need them to like they need to be alive so that they can suffer by by facing the truth again and again and again and i think it i think it is going to be funny It remains funny to me, though, that there are people who are still questioning whether there's a bubble.

1:04:08It's just remarkable to me, in fact. I don't know anyone sensible who's questioning it. Even people I know who are like, I really like AI, they're like, this is clearly a bubble. It's fucking over. It's Jova. well you know what much like much like this podcast then nick where can people find you uh two places so the first one is my personal blog ludic.blog that's l-u-d-i-c blog or my website which is hermit-tech.com and we have a blog on there too lovely and you can find me of course on google.com slash google and then type in ed zitron criminal and uh ignore all of the other stuff just look at the podcast i of course will be back later in the week with a monologue and you who knows it's earnings week so who the what the fuck's gonna happen who god damn knows anyway love you all thank you for listening this has been better offline

1:05:12thank you for listening to better offline the editor and composer of the better offline theme song is Matosowski. You can check out more of his music and audio projects at matosowski.com. M-A-T-T-O-S-O-W-S-K-I.com. You can email me at ez at betteroffline.com or visit betteroffline.com to find more podcast links and of course my newsletter. I also really recommend you go to chat.wheresyoured.at to visit the discord and go to r slash betteroffline to check out our reddit. Thank you so much for listening.

1:06:12Thank you.

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