Enron Musk Ft. Ed Niedermeyer

27:57And people wouldn't do that unless they had some reason to think that, you know, this is something that is somewhat near. and essentially, again, they have to endanger people to create that perception. So a scam is just sort of ripping people off. This does more than that. This endangers people in order to rip them off. It's almost like we need a new word for how bad this is, you know? Yeah, it's interesting because any other company, someone would be in prison, someone would be arrested, maybe someone would be sued by the government for like billions of dollars. Because this feels like it will continue to kill people unless something changes.

28:40But it also doesn't sound like Elon Musk will actually change anything. Well, yeah. I mean, he's going all in on self-driving, right? I mean, he doesn't seem to be when he's going all in on it. It doesn't seem to be doing anything to make it better. Well, yeah. And that's because fundamentally, the Tesla's approach to the technology, they had to find a way to make self-driving technology work with their existing business model. And they did that by using very cheap hardware, essentially. So if you look at Waymo, Waymo is really the only company that is really actually doing self-driving. They have robo-taxis in San Francisco.

29:12And you may love them or hate them, but it is incredibly impressive to be in a completely driverless vehicle in somewhere like downtown San Francisco. They're doing it. And they do it through two things, fundamentally. One is that they limit the domain it operates in. So it only operates in San Francisco. And then they're expanding to new markets. but it's not a general solution. You create a model that works in a specific area. And the other thing you have to do, it's sort of like turning it into a board game, right? You beat a human, you have to bound the complexity. In the bounded complexity of Go or chess, an AI can beat us.

29:48The other thing an AI needs to beat us at a game is perfect intelligence. I'm sorry, perfect information, rather. Which means, right, in chess or Go or whatever, everyone knows exactly where each piece is. There's no confusion about it. and waymo does that with these really really robust sensor systems incorporate lidar and radar and you're also limited heavily in where it goes yeah so it's the combination of those two things and and the problem is that those two things are incompatible with cars no one is going to spend you know maybe someone would spend three hundred thousand dollars on a on a on a car that they didn't have to drive but but not if it only works in san francisco right that live cars have to be able to go wherever we want them to go.

30:29And they have to have a market, you know, they can't be too expensive. And so the things that you need to make real self-driving work just aren't compatible with self-driving. And so essentially what they've done is just use, you know, cheap hardware that isn't too expensive and that does just enough to make people think that it's self-driving. And I think, you know, one of the things we've learned is, you know, people, we bring forward our ideas about driving from humans. If you see a human, like if you see a kid driving and like doing a driver's test, right? Like if you can do a driver's test, that means for a human that you have the basic skills that you can sort of generally apply them everywhere.

31:15But the problem is that machine learning doesn't work that way, right? With machine learning, the generalizability of AI is a huge topic. Everyone wants to believe in it. But certainly when it comes to something that is safety critical, where it's one thing for a large language model to screw up and hallucinate and everyone laughs and ha ha, that's funny. When it comes to driving, what you're doing is you're reconciling a probabilistic system with the need for 99.99999 % reliability. And that 0.0001 % is where people die. Yes, because we drive millions and millions and millions of miles, right?

31:57And Americans drive too much as well, so that's dangerous too. Our roads are worse. It's not great. Yeah, so what's amazing is that humans are bad at babysitting. That's essentially what it forces you to do, right? You're babysitting like a teenager, essentially, who's driving. You put a teenager behind the wheel, you babysit them. We're not necessarily good at that. But from Tesla's perspective, it doesn't matter because what's important is that we get the liability, right? Except this report is going to potentially change how that is viewed by judges. Well, yes. So Tesla is not – so a vehicle becomes self-driving when the manufacturer or the owner-operator takes legal liability for it.

32:42Right. And so essentially none of what Tesla is doing is self-driving because it sticks humans with the consequences. And Madeleine Claire Elish had a great paper a number of years back called Moral Crumple Zones. And that's essentially what Tesla is doing is using humans as moral crumple zones. And the way they've architected the system, it doesn't give us a good chance of catching the system's mistakes. But again, it doesn't matter because we're just there as the crumple zone. We're just there to take the blame for the system's mistake from Tesla's perspective. Taking a step back, what does Tesla actually do now?

33:21Will they change? Will they just keep sitting there? And Elon Musk said it's actually epic that the cars killed people. was good because we need we need more babies but we need less adults yes like what is it so so what's happening right now right so sales have peaked and and they're cutting into their prices and their margins in order to keep it you know sort of from from falling even further uh the problem is is that what's left of those margins depend very heavily and and just the demand so the volume demand and the and the profit margins depend very heavily on autopilot and full self driving because these are like unique to Tesla.

33:56They're unique reasons to buy a Tesla. And frankly, you know, with full self-driving, that's$10 ,000,$15 ,000 per car in an industry where like, you know, people have massive fights at the development level over pennies per car. To add$10 ,000 in pure profit on a car, this papers over a multitude of sins financially, And so if the prospect here is that not only are Tesla sales falling, we'll continue to fall because there's no new product to turn that around. But then also you take away this incredible advantage in terms of profit margin, right? This$10 ,000 to$15 ,000, even if the take rate is 10%,$10 ,000,$15 ,000 per car, you spread that over your whole fleet.

34:44And it's by auto industry change, a huge profit margin. But will they have to pull Autopilot out? If they do. And again, my sense is that this is where Nitz is going. If they pull Autopilot, all of those same problems also apply to full self-driving. All of a sudden, Tesla sees another reason for their volume to go down, right? There's people who are now not going to buy the car because they know Autopilot isn't safe and it doesn't have those things. But then it turns into negative margins. And the thing is, their margins have been compressing, compressing, compressing. And they're at the point now.

35:18What turns into negative margins, though? The car business. The car business. So is there a delineation between full self-driving and autopilot? Or are they the same thing? They're fundamentally the same thing. It's just that autopilot, you're only supposed to use it sort of on freeways. And full self-driving, you use it sort of on city streets and everywhere else. So the difference is in what's called operational design domain. but but also the difference is autopilot is is like the price is built into the cost of a tesla whereas full self-driving is an is an optional extra on top of that so what would get pulled out then i mean in theory both of them because they both have the same sort of fundamental problem right and would elon actually do this though would he actually do it is my question because he's he's a dickhead as we well know but also this is the one thing he spent the last month or so to saying autopilot is the best part of the business.

36:08We don't even need the car. He seems to be selling this hard. Yeah. Yeah. No. So the NHTSA does, they move so slowly. They're so tentative. They're so hesitant to confront an Elon Musk type character, which is why this is all taken so long. But they have an immense amount of power. Essentially, they can order a mandatory recall, and then they can even order a mandatory stop sale. They can say it's illegal to sell Teslas in this country until you essentially deactivate the system or implement some kind of fix that we deem is appropriate. And that's probably impossible to fix, though. So fixing, right.

36:51So there's two ways to fix. One is that you dramatically reduce the capability of the system and probably increase the nags even further. And so you basically destroy the value that people want. That's one way. and that's probably the most likely way. The other way is to actually implement like better hardware for driver monitoring because Tesla uses - Which would cost Tesla a great deal of money. And it's really hard, if not impossible, to essentially pull your entire fleet in and like actually install hardware that you don't have the wiring harnesses for it. In theory, it could be done, but I think it's basically economically impossible.

37:25And so then you have this prospect of all of a sudden, Tesla can no longer do autopilot and full self-driving. And given what's happening with their margins now, Tesla then becomes a negative margin business, which means you don't make it up on volume, right? Every car you sell, you lose money on. And one of the ways that I'm, you know, I'm sort of along with everyone else trying to puzzle through sort of some of the decisions that are being made here. But one scenario that kind of potentially makes this all make sense is that Elon kind of gets it that this is going to happen, that NHTSA is not screwing around.

38:02They don't want more deaths on their hands. They're going to force the issue on this and that the margins will go negative and there's no new product to turn it around. maybe you know elon really like it could explain some of his behavior if he's just sort of come to terms with with you know the the core business is going to die and sort of like with twitter right you know he thinks the way his mind works he thinks he can sort of go and tell earth like oh the regulators or the advert right in the case of twitter he's like he's like i'm just gonna tell you know earth that the advertisers killed twitter i don't remember that that interview yes oh i've got it engraved in my brain he he may pull that like that's that's one of the you know we have to like sort of put ourselves in the mind of someone who's obviously not very normal yeah i'll say it's my podcast okay yeah so so i mean that that may be one way to explain all of what's going on because otherwise he would just go out and say that the wokes have stopped autopilot but he would actually pull it you think well i mean i think would have no choice but to put like like i think he's i think right because because if it gets pulled if he if you can't have autopilot and full self-driving it hits this right it hits the volume of sales it has the hits the profit margin on each sale and it hits the stock it hits and it kills the robo taxi idea which was already completely stupid it just kills that you can't have that anymore yeah yeah no and and and even that is a weird thing to pivot to as well because oh it's just astute it's that just to be clear every single journalist who wrote about the robo taxi thing without rolling their eyes and writing that they were doing so committed some level of malpractice in my opinion it's just not going to happen it's complete bullshit oh yeah uh yeah i completely agree um i mean look the idea that you know uh you can do sort of level five self-driving which means fully you know automated no human monitoring or anything and and not in a limited domain but everywhere like no one else is even selling this tesla's been selling it since 2016 no one else is even selling it if it were possible wouldn't one company want to compete on it right yes economic logic surely this seems very put like if you're saying that cars are generally thin margin businesses and you suddenly have a way to sell software on it surely someone else would try someone like ford for example who has tons of cash government subsidies tons of brand power, they would also do this, except if it was too dangerous.

40:33Yeah, exactly. And so what you do see from Ford and General Motors and others is that they have level two systems like Autopilot that are for the freeway, but they have much more robust driver monitoring and things like that. And they're not going around saying, you know, you'll be able to, you can buy a car that will someday drive itself completely by its own anywhere you want to go. Everybody in the business knows that that is not serious and has known for a really long time. And unfortunately, we're in a weird situation where it's like no one has called it out. And so, you know, he's, again, it'll be eight years this fall that they've started, since they've started taking money for this just blatant scam.

41:14And I think the reason that people have got, that they've gotten away with it so far, obviously it's nothing to do with technical plausibility, although it does sort of tie into, you know, know the ai hype that we see elsewhere so people think that agi is near you know i kind of make sense why they might think that it might be because there's shadows on the walls of the cave that suggest it's possible yes but but the real reason i think is that you know the when you say the word self-driving car what what people what americans in particular think is a car that drives itself and what is i mean that's probably because those are the goddamn words but but that's the No, no.

41:51It's misleading in its face. Yeah, yeah, exactly. But what people don't understand is that where autonomous driving actually does work is in these robo-taxis that are fundamentally different than cars, right? A car, you have to be able to buy it and own it. And a car also goes anywhere you want to go, right? And so where this technology works, the way in which it works is fundamentally different than a car. So that's why no one else is trying to make a self-driving car, right? Because it's impossible. But Elon's willing to do it and he gets away with it because it's like he's selling a piece, a puzzle piece that fits into the empty spot in people's brain.

42:35He's the only person who's selling the mental model that people have for self-driving car. And this is why Waymo is actually doing it. They have actual driverless vehicles you can get actual rides in. And no one stops and is like, wait a second, how is it that they're able to do this? But every year Elon says this is ready and then it's not. What's the disconnect there? He's been saying it would be ready since 2019 as well. He has been talking out his asshole about this a minute. Yeah, he has. I mean, even before the official announcement of Full Self Driving, he had a number of quotes saying he thought it was going to be within a year or two.

43:13And there's just these long, long lists of his quotes. No one has been as wrong about this technology as he has. And yet he continues to get more confidence and faith, certainly from financial markets, than even the companies that are proving it and doing it the right way. And I think that's a really troubling commentary on the relationship between technology and capital in our society these days.

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45:31Bring the boom. XBoom.

45:39so changing subject slightly elon also very recently laid off most of the supercharger team which to me is one of the funnier things he's done because the supercharger network for tesla appeared to be a completely unregulated monopoly where everyone gave him free money and the entire industry had started like most of the industry started buying into his charging standard and And then they'd said, you know what, Elon, we'd actually like you to have more power. Please just run this whole thing. And then he fired most of them. What the hell happened? Yeah. So at a high level, the weirdest thing about all of this is that Tesla has money.

46:17Tesla, on paper at least, has almost$30 billion in cash. And so it should be spending its way out of its problems and not cut it. But instead, Elon, and this is why I think this is as much just sort of about him and sort of who he is now rather than anything to do with the business is that he just cuts stuff. It's like, oh, we're having trouble. Let's get rid of the dead weight. Let's get rid of cost. The problem is that this doesn't solve any of his problems. I think with supercharging, it's a little different. And so supercharging, like Tesla itself, was a really critical piece of this sort of going zero to one with the EV business.

47:01Like I think, you know, when Tesla first got started, they had to do something like the supercharger network, right? It wasn't really optional. Like it was a key part of growing their market. Yeah, because no one could charge their cars otherwise. Yes. And as long as it was Tesla exclusive, it was, and increasingly over time, as competition got better, it became sort of the reason to buy Teslas. When he opened it to others, that changed, right? Then all of a sudden, it's no longer, you know, well, if you want access to Tesla Superchargers, you have to buy a Tesla. No, no, you can buy a Rivian, you can buy a Ford, and you get access to those things.

47:37It's no longer a unique selling point for Tesla. And I think that's one of the reasons you've seen demand fall off, right? There's a lot more competition now, and a lot of that competition can use the same chargers. I think because it's been so good and so reliable, people assume that it's also a good business. I'm not sure that that's actually the case. Real estate is very expensive. It ties up a lot of capital. Yes, they're making probably some gross margin on the electricity. They probably sell the electricity for more than they buy it for. So there is some kind of a business there. But whether or not that's paying off the cost of capital in a way that would actually be attractive as a standalone business is not clear.

48:17And I think there's reason to suspect it may not because it is essentially a – it's like a feature for Tesla cars. It's like sort of putting cash on the hood or something like that potentially. So the business of supercharging has never really been fully disclosed. and essentially it seems like maybe this may actually be one of the more rational decisions in that the business itself may just not be that good. Tesla, by opening it up, they'll get revenue from other owners of non-Tesla vehicles and in order to make that business look good, they simply can't invest more. There's no incentive in them to grow.

49:00There have been estimates that suggest it's worth like 10 to$20 billion. Like it's actually generating real revenue, but we just don't know, do we? Yeah, like a lot of things with Tesla, the accounting is very opaque, right? And again, like, you know, they supposedly have$30 billion of cash or almost$30 billion of cash on their books. And yet they somehow don't seem able to like meaningfully spend their way out of some of these problems. So I, you know, I'm not a forensic accountant. I'm not gonna make any allegations about them like cooking their books, but I do know there's been a lot of suspicion about that over the years.

49:32Um, and, and certainly when it comes to superchargers, it's never been broken out in a way that would allow you to say, oh yeah, this is definitely something that can stand alone. Frankly, if it were like, like if he, if it were a standalone business, it would be something you could spin out right now or sell to a competitor or something. Surely it would be something you would volunteer the information for as well to show how good Tesla was. But you also wouldn't fire the entire team before doing it. You also would not do that. know. But talking of broken, how about that Cybertruck? What the hell is going on there?

50:04Yeah. So again, it's a question of priorities. The car business is a capital intensive business and Tesla's been, they've had a lot of things go well for them, but they've been resting on their laurels. And you have to invest your money in something in order to keep growth going in the car business either right you keep expanding the superchargers or the you invest in new cars or you update more cars more add-ons yeah and and so the soup so the the the cyber truck like in some ways there was it was it was a brilliant idea to make a big truck because if you can only compete in one car market in the world the combination of volume and profit margin in full-size trucks in america is the number one best business period right right that that business keeps the Detroit automakers going.

50:55They barely make any money on anything other than trucks. The trucks essentially subsidize most of the rest of their businesses. And so targeting that segment was smart. Targeting it with essentially a meme was not smart. And I think that to me, the Cybertruck is a symbol of sort of Elon's ego sort of hitting escape velocity and essentially reaching a point where he can no longer take advice, like whether it's just in terms of the styling, you know, like you could have done a wedgie truck like that and not made it look like such garbage if he'd listened to his, his stylist, Franz von Holthausen, is certainly talented enough to have made a much better design or version of that concept.

51:42It was clear, Elon was like, no, I want it to be flat and straight lines and I want it to look like low polygons, like a video game. Like the game of flashback. Yeah. And I think it's like in his mind, the difference between a rendering and reality is like blurry to him. I think for him, like if it looks good in a rendering, well, of course, it's going to look good in reality. And, you know, the rest of all of Tesla's designs have been, you know, you can definitely tell the quality problems if you know what to look for. But they've got these curves and these different panels and these things going on.

52:18The guy other than Elon designing them. Yeah. Well, I mean, obviously, they have a designer. It's just that Elon won't listen to anybody. I think that's – I don't know of any other way to explain, right? Like the product planning team would tell him, listen, Elon, like we know this full-size truck segment is so huge. We can build our next wave of growth if we get the right product in the segment. They could though, right? Yeah. They made the Model S for trucks, like an 80 to 100 grand fucking brilliant truck, which they are fully capable of doing, surely. Yeah. Well, except that Elon doesn't believe in market research.

52:55Perfect. Sure. Absolutely. And he goes with his gut. And it's like if he thinks it's cool, then it's going to work. And I think this has been true enough for a long time. But has it? Okay. I actually want to push back on that. Has that actually been true since like 2016? Because what cool idea has Elon Musk had that's worked in that time? Well, since 2016, so I mean, I've always argued that, you know, full self-driving was also one of the, it was really the first time where he sort of hit this escape velocity. Like he's always had these hype-y kind of things. Yeah, it's a good idea. I'm not saying it's not.

53:36It's just that the way he manifested it is the problem. Yeah. And I mean, I think throughout the history of the company, right? So the Tesla Roadster, the original one was just going to be like a Lotus Elise with batteries and an electric motor shoved into it. Elon kind of both turned it into a better product and a product that really established Tesla's brand, but also killed the financial viability of it at the same time. uh you know and and and and at that point right it was all about building up hype he didn't have to perform as a business he could he could emphasize sort of brand building and looks and feel over the profitability because it was an early stage it was you know their their pure play you know it's experimental yeah yeah so we just use it to raise more money and then and then we'll get serious right the problem is just never released the second roadster it's just never coming out no no it's fucking insane like there's so many people have written about this thing oh and people put money down on it remember the the founder's edition people put down 50 at the entire full price 250 000 up that's completely bonkers that is bonkers that is come on but but but like this is the thing with tesla too though is that like once you get away with something for a while how do you then decide okay this is not actually acceptable i think this is kind of the problem that full self-driving and autopilot are having, right?

54:57And I think hopefully NHTSA will take action and that will be it. It's the government, right? They should be the ones who step in. And frankly, I think if you want to look at what does this whole story sort of point to in terms of being the underlying problem, it's not Elon, really, in the sense that Elon's just following his incentives. He's come out of a situation where it's okay to kind of lie and exaggerate in order to make yourself wealthy. And he's been good at that. And so he's just kind of continuing to follow the incentives there. The real failure is law enforcement and regulators, right?

55:36Like as a society, you have someone who's endangering what's already a very dangerous activity, making roads even less safe while lying about, claiming that it is safe and doing it to become wealthy. Like, even if you think it should be okay for Elon to do this because he's magic and special, the example that it sets, right, that it tells everyone else this is an okay way to become the richest man in the world is by endangering other people and lying. You know, that is an example that as a society, I don't think we can afford to let sort of sit unchallenged. And so I think the real failure there here is just, it's the government.

56:24So I thought that was a really good point to end the interview. Because while Musk has and continues to be, and probably will for a while, he'll continue to be a horrifying man that constantly tests how far a billionaire can go, the failure to hold Tesla accountable is one that lands at the feet of the government and really the media. For years, the press has given Musk fairly unquestioning press, even to this day, though there are some exceptions people like ed nidemeyer laura kolodny linette lopez alan onsman kristin grind ryan mack if i left you out i'm really sorry but this sounds like a lot of people but there are so many more members of the media who have just huffed musk's farts even last week alex kantrowitz of big technology i really really respect alex i've loved his work since buzzfeed i think he's phenomenal except for this he uncritically published an email from musk about his plans for Grok, the large language model he's bolted onto Twitter, and how it will interface with Twitter's newsfeed generating stories.

57:25Stories from tweets. Now, the big miss here, other than just copy-pasting something Elon Musk said, was leaving out the fact that Grok has been doing stories already. It's been summarizing the news, including multiple hallucinated stories, like one about basketball player Clay Thompson allegedly vandalizing places with bricks after and Grok misunderstood that people were referring to him bricking shots in a basketball game. Very basic English, and even then, Grok can't get it. Alex, what the hell are you doing, mate? I said this on Twitter, and I'll say it on here. What are you doing? You are smarter than this.

58:00I do not know why you're doing this. No one should be doing this. If Elon Musk sends you something, you give it a critique. You look at it through the fair lens, because this man is not trustworthy. Elon Musk, he half-asses everything. He rushes. He tricks. He cheats. he half explains and moreover he lies. Elon Musk is not someone to take at his word or to treat with the benefit of the doubt. Every time that we buy into whatever weird narrative or made up thing he has about how Tesla will work itself out of a jam or how X will be big, we're helping a man who has acted disingenuously and dangerously and will continue to do so.

58:37A man who platforms actual Nazis, a man that retweets anti-Semitic things. This is who we're dealing with. And as I've said before, though, governments must also take Musk a lot more seriously. And they should cut him out of subsidies and programs, I'd say permanently, but at least as long as he continues to release this buggy, dangerous software and platforms racists and insane freaks who would kill people like me. I am Jewish, and I'm confident that some of the people he shared would absolutely murder my ass dead. And that's the thing. This is the guy. This is this guy has billions of dollars.

59:15Elon Musk. He's a liar. He's a scam artist. It doesn't matter that he's got billions of dollars. One can still be corrupt, selfish and a complete fucking idiot with that many zeros in the bank. While the threat of Elon Musk is something to take very seriously, though, the his ideas are most certainly not. So I challenge you as a member of the media, as a listener, as a consumer, to look at everything he does in the same way you would a teenager that has been lying to you for months. That's who Musk is, and he's been lying a lot longer than a few months. He's been lying for the best part of a decade.

59:49And he manages to make money and spike Tesla's stock every single goddamn time. People like Jim Cramer and his ilk fuel his murderous, genuinely dangerous ideas. I challenge you, whoever this is listening, to think very critically about this man.

1:00:15thank you for listening to better offline the editor and composer of the better offline theme song is matt osowski you can check out more of his music and audio projects at matt osowski.com m-a-t-t-o-s-o-w-s-k-i.com you can email me at easy at better offline.com or visit better offline.com to find more podcast links. And of course, my newsletter. I also really recommend you go to chat.wheresyoured.at to visit the discord and go to r slash better offline to check out our Reddit. Thank you so much for listening. Better offline is a production of cool zone media. For more from cool zone media, visit our website, coolzone media.com or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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1:02:34Stop settling for weak sound. It's time to level up your game and bring the boom. Hit the town with the ultra-durable LG XBoom portable speaker and enjoy vibrant sound wherever you go. Elevate your listening experience to new heights because, let's be real, your music deserves it. The future of sound is now with LG XBoom. And for a limited time, save 25 % at LG.com with code FALL25. Bring the boom. X-Boom. This is an iHeart Podcast.