Hater Season: Caleb Wilson, Juniper and Arif Hasan

12:17Ed:He wants every dope to be able to advance the field, which I guess in theory -

12:22Juniper:you don't want science in the hands of a dullard like me. I'm going to start the One Ring Company if you do that.

12:29Ed:You'll accidentally create a black hole with a Hadron Collider. I'm just saying, dude,

12:34Juniper:Elon Musk is the richest man on the planet and he is so fucking stupid, but I could be worse.

12:39Ed:I could be worse. Speaking of him, he's another person that's embraced this like soft religion aesthetic. He was in an interview with Katie Miller. Of course, you need more demons around talking to people like Elon Musk. And he's like, yeah, you know, I believe in God. You know, I do believe in a creator. And it's like all of this. I guess the reason I've been focusing so much on that in particular recently with all of these people like Gary Tan, all of these people is it's all happening at the same time. They're all sort of doing this weird embrace of evangelical religion. All sort of – it started before Trump became president.

13:16Ed:So much as if they don't have ideas. Yeah. But I don't know if it's like a cope thing. I've been fucking dull.

13:23Arif Hasan:I think some of it might be – and this might be just doing too much like armchair pop psychology. But like, I think some of it is that in order to kind of proselytize for AI, in order to evangelize their own kind of element or this thing, they have to put themselves in a frame of mind that allows them to believe in the kind of powerful myth making that is analogous to religion, especially because some of these singularity people, which is not necessarily the same as some of these AI people, but there's a lot of overlap, do believe that AI will become God. Right? Like a backwards looking God. You know?

14:01Arif Hasan:I don't think these people believe in anything.

14:04Caleb Wilson:Sure. I just, like, that's kind of, like, but I guess that it's just a convenient label to bone stuff.

14:10Arif Hasan:Right, yeah, here the word believe just serves as, like, an analog for telling us the things that they think we should believe, right? Like, I don't really care if they actually believe this shit. I care that they're telling people this shit.

14:22Juniper:Well, there was a really good profile on Peter Thiel. I think it was in Wired about how he uses like Christian apocalyptic end times imagery in a lot of his speeches. And I was really interested in all that, which we talked about on our show.

14:34Ed:Yeah, that's the piece about Rene Girard, the philosopher that he like sort of go on. Sorry. Yeah, that's it.

14:41Juniper:Just he does that and then Girard. And then, you know, he's very big on Carl Schmitt. I'll let you if you know who that is. Oh, God.

14:49Caleb Wilson:this all comes back to a very simple thing for me which is these are not things you do if you have anything you enjoy yeah if so if i'm sitting if i'm sitting alone it's been a long day i have i can name five movies and six video games i could i could i've been weary watching person of interest excellent show makes me so happy watching with my girlfriend it's awesome but i drink a diet coke with that wow i feel awesome these people are like i need to take on a new religion i need to create a pro-centrism blog and only then will i possibly be happy it's just it's just i would say it was sad if i cared for these people in any way shape or form it's just i hear oh they're into religion no they're not they just they they sit around like bored motherfuckers tugging on the winkies going what's going on in the world Jesus is real and God was too the GPU we've got 100 GPUs he put the GPUs together it could make an AGI I don't know what that really means but anyway who's in your email inbox Peter Jeffrey Epstein by the way here's the thing I'll say Jmail I think the people who made Jmail should get a Pulitzer for sure absolutely the people that made jmail which is the searchable uh epstein database um really really like they deserve a pulitzer here and also so does the guy who the final email that jeffrey epstein received on jeeproject at yahoo.com was just a guy called cody cody rudland and he said lol good riddance and the subject was you're dead

16:38Caleb Wilson:fucking buzzer beating so much incredible work dude buzzer beat jeffrey epstein

16:47Caleb Wilson:also jeffrey epstein got invited to a michael clayton screening anyway i don't want to get into epstein because i know that'll be all right yeah it's a whole different thing it's just we're in such a weird spot of the moment with all this ai shit as well because there was that uh something big is happening piece oh yeah oh i wanted to kill myself with that oh good i haven't heard

17:07Arif Hasan:about this i also want to be in a state where i'm going to kill myself tell me yeah well

17:14Caleb Wilson:it's a piece by this guy who's like a scammer who guy called matt schumer who back in 2024 claimed his uh reflection 70b wait is this is this when the ai like tried to post something

17:27Arif Hasan:to like github and it got rejected no no that's a different thing entirely that was just the scam

17:31Caleb Wilson:the week before yeah that was the scam no no that one i'll get to in a second though this was the one where it was like a 4 700 word blog that's my phone oh i read it no never mind i did read this

17:41Arif Hasan:yeah i put it into a word i remember 4 700 because i put it into a word counter yep because i was like what the fuck is this um yeah no it sucks but yeah we have listeners they should also know

17:53Caleb Wilson:what this is so go ahead i mean they heard about it on the monologue last week so okay they're all and then the most people said don't don't worry about being angry and one person was like you need to be less angry uh it's just i think we're entering like a hysteria zone and i actually my favorite thing about that blog by far was watching two or three other people try and do similar blogs and just nothing happened because people being like actually yeah it's actually it's

18:18Ed:actually crazier it's actually even bigger and crazier i i think the thing that i thought was even weirder about that piece is there was a lot of people i do genuinely respect that like shared that piece and they were like oh my god like everyone needs to read this like typically you know very skeptical people that have very good takes chris hayes dude yeah yeah

18:41Juniper:like all these people share it yeah yeah yes i got people mad at me because i i said some not so nice things about my friend chris hayes but you know what if you take that shit credulously you're a dullard i'm sorry chris you fucking blew that one yeah the thing about this article that like

18:56Arif Hasan:really gets me it article blog post unvetted piece of ai because it is clearly written by ai by the way like i which should not be shocking given that it's an ai evangelism piece of course it's written by ai which by the way cleveland.com uh released it uh like an editor's thing today Oh, God. Yeah, we'll get to that in a second. A journalism candidate had turned down a job with them because the – Cleveland.com is like the newspaper of Cleveland, right? And a student who was trying to get a job with them turned down the job because they don't have reporters writing articles. They have an AI rewrite specialist who turns their material into drafts.

19:39Arif Hasan:They just have the reporters do like sourcing and quote gathering and stuff like that. Oh, Christ. God. And the editorial explaining this and explaining that journalism schools are failing students by making them think they should write.

19:56Arif Hasan:It's also obviously written by AI. But back to this article by Schumer. So it is obviously written by AI. But it keeps on coming up with these examples that are contextually actually very poor examples of the thing that they're trying to demonstrate. But there's like a million of them. It's like a gish gallop of AI benchmarks that are meant to create this sense that AI is smarter than PhDs or pass the bar exam. I'm sorry.

20:23Caleb Wilson:Also, PhDs listen to this. And I will say this. Not very smart people. I know a few. You've not met enough PhDs if you're like PhD level. Not to say every PhD is stupid, but not to say every PhD is smart either.

20:37Arif Hasan:Well, okay, I'll say this. Ben Carson is a gifted neurosurgeon, right? Think about that. Well, was. Was. But think about that. People have their specialties. Right? Yeah. And PhDs are incredibly talented. But even with analogous specialists, we've seen PhDs in chemistry come out and write books about how AIDS isn't real, right? Like chemistry is pretty close to biology and you still got that fucking wrong. Right. But regardless of like that, like stuff like pass the bar exam is like in the thing. And it's like contextually, it's actually not that interesting because they passed something called the universal bar exam, which no individual state uses.

21:21Arif Hasan:There's like a million other things.

21:24Caleb Wilson:Also, the best thing in it was him saying that he cited this METR study. Oh, it doesn't even say it. well no no but what's great about it is it's like it's like tasks that an ai can do the involve it working autonomously for hours hours and hours right when you go and click on it it's actually tasks that it succeeds at 50 of the time yeah the meta or whatever it was is is absolutely

21:54Arif Hasan:mischaracterized like egregiously mischaracterized like to the point if we had journalism still and this was run in a newspaper that cared about stuff, which what a bygone era that we pretended to have. So sad.

22:31Juniper:can extend your message to audiences across broadcast radio. Think podcasting can help your business? Think iHeart. Streaming, radio, and podcasting. Call 844-844-IHEART to get started. That's 844-844-IHEART. Hey, everyone. It's Emily Simpson and Shane Simpson from the Legally Brunette podcast. Each week, we're bringing you true crime through a legal lens. Whether you want all the facts on the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie or you still need to wrap your head around the ditty verdict, We're breaking it all down step by step. And we're not just lawyers. We're also husband and wife. It makes for some pretty entertaining episodes.

23:08Juniper:Listen to Legally Brunette on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Segregation in the day, integration at night. When segregation was the law, one mysterious black club owner had his own rules. We didn't worry about what went on outside. It was like stepping in another world. Inside Charlie's place, black and white people danced together. But not everyone was happy about it.

23:38Caleb Wilson:You saw the KKK?

23:39Juniper:Yeah, they were dressed up in their uniform. The KKK set out to raid Charlie, take him away from here. Charlie was an example of power. They had to crush him. From Atlas Obscura, Rococo Punch, and Visit Myrtle Beach comes Charlie's place. A story that was nearly lost to time. Until now. Listen to Charlie's Place on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

24:30Juniper:Still warm? Then do it again. Where can I learn all this? It's all on SmokeyBear.com with other wildfire prevention tips. Because only you can prevent wildfires. Brought to you by the USDA Forest Service, your state forester and the Ad Council.

24:48Ed:Another part of this whole conversation is that the thing that's been pissing me off for a while now, but especially recently with this like increased hysteria around like oh ai is like the big the big thing is going to happen soon is it's like people keep saying that it's smart that it's that it's going to be smarter than humans maybe even that it is smarter than humans already when it's like there is no unless i'm missing something there it has not shown any level of original intelligence what it can do is that it's just more of a very efficiently combing through databases of words and just information.

25:25Ed:It's very efficient at that. But that doesn't prove intelligence as far as I'm aware. So whenever people say AI is intelligent, I lose my fucking mind because it's not. It's just fast. It's a fast database search that pukes back out at you. I do have a counterpoint to that. What is it?

25:42Juniper:A Matt Schumer specific counterpoint. And when you posted on Blue Sky the other day that he was the guy who made that awful video game. This is the future of movies.

25:55Caleb Wilson:Oh yeah, if you've seen this, listeners, it's the video game thing where it's like two minutes and just, it is insane. Like, the UX changes.

26:03Ed:Oh, yes! Do you remember that? Wait, the game? The game that kept shifting? Yeah, I always remember this.

26:11Arif Hasan:And like, the guy falls off the bridge, and the guy's really impressed that the AI put him back on a bridge, but it's a completely new bridge, and a completely new fucking

26:21Ed:cash in the town lakitu could do that in mario 64 30 years ago dude like come on

26:28Caleb Wilson:yes you can vibe code here's how to get started fucking stop and it's like you go and look it's like sample task merge files extract information clean and convert files fix finicky images get rid of garbage well i'm fucking reading some and it's i just feel like we're in this hysteria mode where just every day there's just this bizarre escalation of like wow ai is so powerful and look it's replacing workers but then you click on the article it's like well fields that involve maybe being affected by ai have seen less entry level hires and that will be on the front of the financial times like that's just like that's what we're doing every other era of actual innovation they'd be like yeah you can like you have a a ds perhaps not dsl but like a very nice camera and a phone look at the photos look how good the photos are wow this phone can can use email now that's a huge deal this is like yeah if you squint really

27:32Arif Hasan:hard it's almost something i think the thing that gets me is if you which i'm sure someone has done this if you take this schumer article and feed it into an ai and said hey can you produce a counter article that goes point point it would be equally as compelling right yes that's a that's an interesting idea actually i don't like using ai but i would love to see that

27:58Caleb Wilson:i will be honest i actually did that perfect see oh my god i did it using his own uh his actually his own uh thing let's see let's see if i got this yeah because i did it in i pulled up hyper right which is his dog shit his dog shit uh ai startup and it basically said yeah you know it's mostly just hype i i don't have it in front of me i'm sorry i don't i didn't prepare journalism ed i know i know i've already had good thing we have a real journalist june here too here's me actually this is just me straight up complaining which i know is different to usual i write like 10 to 15 000 word analyses of things and i am so detailed and i go through years of earnings and shit and this guy's like wow you know the computer is just fucking so crazy now bro and like do you read that like ai is learning from itself and like it's amazing like and look at this and people are coming themselves reading it they're like they're like we need this guy on national television and then he's then he says oh i'm not trying to scare people

29:10Arif Hasan:fuck you you little worm so i ed i i do have a question about uh these ai because i don't get these ai startups i don't know you don't fundamentally understand but i think you know more than me which is i if there's only like eight or nine like models out there like deep seek and kimmy and what what the fuck is an ai start like they they take these models and they what give us a prompt beforehand so it's better organized for the tech okay from the very from

29:39Caleb Wilson:the very lowest ai startup to the most successful ones like any sphere who makes cursor it is much more complex at the top end but it is prompt engineering it is finding ways to translate what you say to it into a prompt that the model will then use to do something like that one of

29:57Arif Hasan:like the eight or nine existing models like yes deep seek and which is okay what's really funny

30:03Caleb Wilson:with this guy's startup though hyper right which is by a company called other side ai is they raised 2.6 million dollars in um let's see in november 12 2020 then they raised another uh see other side another 2.8 million in uh march 2023 where the fuck is the money where is it where is it where'd

30:28Arif Hasan:it go when you used it did you pay for it no god no so yeah okay now yeah that's a great question what the fuck no i truly don't know and it's it's a the current it or this is from 2023 the current

30:43Caleb Wilson:iteration of hyperwrite which is a chrome extension with personalization and context awareness launched in early 2022 it's a chrome this is the fucking guy this is the guy this is and i i think it just shows that none of these ai boosters actually believe in anything because i don't know when i see someone doing ai criticism and they're just making shit up i'm like hey don't do that it weakens our argument these people like yeah just lying just it's fine just wow i agree i saw alexis sohenium talking about it one of my favorite guys who's just fallen from fallen from grace like his big previous investment was this thing called doodles doodles nft that he claims to be big nft no no yeah he's like a big nft guy i feel like we think doodles is better or worse than v friends what's v friends oh gary v's thing no no it's it's v friends is the gary vaynerchuk what is gary vaynerchuk though if he isn't an ai he's an ai we i don't even have to look that up i i feel it in my bones i yeah i he also has a one that looks really sick all the time right gary yeah yeah like doing enough in your life or whatever he sounds like charlie from it's always

31:58Ed:sunny in philadelphia why do why do these tech people despite being like a lot of like very health focused to like a degree that is unnerving they always look sickly they always look just very wet and sickly and moist.

32:12Arif Hasan:Well, Brian Johnson, I think, did that on purpose. Like, I think he wants to look like that.

32:17Ed:Yeah, and he succeeded. He is really good at looking very sickly and wet.

32:22Caleb Wilson:So I think what it is, is these people, in my experience, work insane hours. Now, work is a kind of a relative term, but like they're in meetings or dinners or lunches or whatever, or just staring at X the everything app 24-7. That's hard work. That's a lot, dude. Yeah. No, yeah. Let's not knock that one. No, I mean, like, I can't judge someone for doing that. But, like, they don't have a time when they're sitting around, like, taking an edible and watching YouTubes of manual cats, like palace cats. Right, yeah. They don't have joy in their lives like that. But they are working all the time. So they emerge from that process tired and wet.

33:04Caleb Wilson:yeah because they're tired and damp just like just like visibly moist visibly moist or terrifyingly

33:13Juniper:dry they all look like they all look like they have a disease that they have to explain to you that you've never heard of while you just look at your phone and you're like damn dude that's crazy

33:23Caleb Wilson:yeah yeah uh-huh yes yeah man that's crazy doesn't jordan peterson have one of those diseases that's

33:29Ed:just like sort of low-key fake like his daughter's like yeah he has this thing and then you look into it and it's just like sort of fake or something like that it's called adhd june jesus christ

33:40Arif Hasan:okay i was under the impression that she had induced it so that's that's which is slightly

33:45Ed:different than fake oh yeah his cider psychosis yeah yeah i don't know he has some weird shit

33:51Caleb Wilson:going on he has a ton of different things i just it's just no one happy would defend a corporation this much like i i i say this as reading forums of people arguing about video games for years i even then the idea of being so desperate to protect the idea that corporations can make more money is so very fucking sad but it's kind of it's turned into everything now i mean i saw on twitter the other day people gambling on traffic why why why why why i don't understand awesome

34:29Arif Hasan:what is the target function like how do you how does the book verify that you won or lost your

34:36Caleb Wilson:bet it's one of the i don't think this is like a particularly nuanced bet like it's like it's like people gambling let's see how many cars will go through in a particular period I think it is people need hobbies

34:53Ed:man you gotta call the hotline man that's nuts

34:57Caleb Wilson:I'm quoting Will Manneker of Chapo here who posted this about a sport where guys just run into each other oh yeah I've seen that his post was just this is the sport they watch in Robocop

35:12Caleb Wilson:and it's like it's like it's just robocop stuff now it's just prediction markets i saw oh god we're gonna do a prediction market episode we've got a bloke from barons coming on yeah it's fucking great i love prediction markets i mean they're getting worse they're getting so so so bad someone was talking about betting on whether a rocket would explode yeah the new the rocket

35:32Ed:that's i don't know when it's launching but it was yeah that like someone i i screenshot this reply in particular from polymarket um let me find it really quick i swear i just i just did it and i'm gonna i'm gonna read it like a nasa one too not even like a spacex yeah it was disgusting

35:51Caleb Wilson:yeah it's polymarket and all like i don't know how long all of that will work like how long before that gets outlawed by someone but i think something that might accelerate that process is someone getting killed because of it.

36:06Juniper:Yeah. Like Gary Ducey's awful son in contact is going to blow up that rocket, dude.

36:11Arif Hasan:Yeah.

36:11Ed:Yeah. So what I saw, someone said that, sorry to be a scold, but wagering on people dying should not be legal, which I think is the most moral and correct thing in the world. That's fucking crazy. That we have gambling on this. Sorry to be PC here, but I'm going to draw a line in the sand. Yeah. Very, very good take person. Yeah. Great take. But then Polymarket replied to that, saying to clarify, this was a market about a potential booster stage rupture, a defined hardware failure scenario, not about the Orion crew capsule or astronaut safety. This was not a market on crew injury or loss of life.

36:45Ed:But like, I don't know, man. I feel like if you are gambling on any stage of this sort of exploding a disaster, that's sort of gambling on disaster. We saw that there was gambling and prediction markets about Palisades fire, how long it was going to last, how far it was going to reach. So the idea that people gamble on disasters is not like, oh, wow, this took us by surprise that a lot of people thought this would happen. It's been happening for over a year now. People have been gambling on disasters for over a year now.

37:18Caleb Wilson:Well, Nick DeVore is the bloke from Barrows who's going to join us. And as in not today, don't worry. He's just going to put in just fucking like a half-time substitution. He's here right now. No, he made the point, it's like, inevitable that someone uses this to manipulate someone's murder. Like, they create a market where someone says, okay, yeah, you're going to, like, will this person live or die on May 13th? And on some level, it's like, this will encourage someone to get killed. Like, I know this sounds extreme, but Polymarket, Nick also made this point where it's like, Polymarket already encourages insider trading.

37:57Arif Hasan:yeah i mean we saw this with um with like in addition to the maduro stuff right but we saw this with like pam bondy's press conference times where she got within like 30 seconds of that which is like you could say the markets hit that really well but i'm not gonna say that i think she knew someone was gonna make money on the under right well what was the what was the it was it was how long uh a particular press conference on a particular day would go and it's like you know a couple hours and then some and and she abruptly like in the middle of like a sentence she just shut it down 30 seconds within uh within 30 seconds of like the timeline to hit the mark and so a bunch of people who had we shouldn't say bet on the owner because it's not betting right who had who had purchased contract shares on the event result of it being less than the certain amount of time made a ton of money off of it yeah so like people are already either actively manipulating it or not doing anything to prevent the appearance of manipulating it like when um um yannis took uh tetacupo for the milwaukee bucks uh who's now like on the chair

39:10Ed:or something for kalshi yeah he's a chair a board member of kalshi now yeah so like he had like

39:15Arif Hasan:demanded a trade, it sounded like, from the Bucs to an organization that will actually win games, which is understandable. And there was this whole trade market, and Kalshi had a bunch of different markets for Giannis and where he was going to go and whether or not he was going to stay. And ultimately, he didn't get traded. He stayed with the Bucs. And everybody who would bet that he was going to stay with the Bucs had made a ton of money. And then right after that, he announced he was on the board of Kalshi. And it's like, I don't know that Giannis or any of his entourage or whoever put any money on any of these things.

39:52Arif Hasan:But that sure looks fucking awful, right?

39:55Ed:They probably did. I would bet that on Kalshi. Yeah, I would imagine. I would take that bet on Kalshi that they did.

40:02Caleb Wilson:Yeah, right. I just, I think that there is goodness in our future and that good things will happen. But I think on the way there, there's going to be something called the Kalshi murders, maybe?

40:16Ed:Yeah, yeah.

40:17Caleb Wilson:No, for sure. We've already, thankfully, I got to use my term son of Sam Altman for an AI psychosis murder. I mean, very sad. I mean, like, no, terrible, but also for you personally, nice. Nice. But it's just, it feels like we're in this weird gulf where everyone is desperately trying, all the money is trying to pretend that all of this is so fucking sick. When you look at it, even as a booster, it's like, great, coding's faster, I guess. Yay. It's also so expensive and no one wants to do the math.

40:56Arif Hasan:Yeah, that's like the other thing about this is like all of the booster arguments for AI coming for different industries and jobs or being able to perform different tasks or whatever, right? All of the arguments about its increasing capability rely on an assumption that the progress, quote unquote progress, as measured by their own benchmarks anyway, that it's made so far, will continue at an exponential rate in the same way that we envision technology tends to, which is not really like if you look at the progress of like battery technology, it does not follow the same fucking – it's just not like that.

41:31Arif Hasan:But the way that people seem to imagine technology is this like in crazy, you know, exponential, it spikes up. And so they put that assumption on AI. Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

41:43Caleb Wilson:Exactly. It's just when you look at the chart, disco sales will go off. Yeah, it'll just double every year.

41:49Arif Hasan:Yeah. but people will assume this and they'll make the argument that it will without understanding like what it took to get to the shitty place it is now and how we're at the edge of that like we can't actually devote more resources to make these models better

42:08Juniper:I'm I'm I'm I'm I'm I'm broadcast radio. Think podcasting can help your business? Think iHeart. Streaming, radio, and podcasting. Let us show you at iHeartAdvertising.com. That's iHeartAdvertising.com. Hey everyone, it's Emily Simpson and Shane Simpson from the Legally Brunette podcast. Each week, we're bringing you true crime through a legal lens. Whether you want all the facts on the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie, or you still need to wrap your head around the ditty verdict, we're breaking it all down step by step. And we're not just lawyers, we're also husband and wife. It makes for some pretty entertaining episodes.

43:13Juniper:Listen to Legally Brunette on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Segregation in the day, integration at night. When segregation was the law, one mysterious Black club owner had his own rules. We didn't worry about what went on outside. It was like

43:33Arif Hasan:stepping on another world.

43:35Juniper:Inside Charlie's Place, Black and white people danced together, but not everyone was happy about it. You saw the KKK? Yeah, they were dressed up in their uniform. The KKK set out to raid Charlie, take him away from here. Charlie was an example of power. They had to crush him. From Atlas Obscura, Rococo Punch, and Visit Myrtle Beach comes Charlie's Place, A story that was nearly lost to time. Until now. Listen to Charlie's Place on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

44:35Juniper:If it's still warm, then do it again. Where can I learn all this? It's all on SmokeyBear.com with other wildfire prevention tips. Because only you can prevent wildfires. Brought to you by the USDA Forest Service, your state forester and the Ad Council.

44:53Caleb Wilson:So what's funny is there was, because Matt Hughes, who's my editor, who's long-suffering. Yeah, poor guy. By which I mean, I made him watch a two and a half hour long Dario Amadei interview. Sorry, man. But he found one fascinating quote in here. This is Wario Amadei, CEO of Anthropic. Even though a part of my brain wonders if it's going to keep growing 10x, I can't buy$1 trillion a year of compute in 2027. If I'm off by a year in that rate of growth, or if the growth rate is 5x a year instead of 10x a year, then you go bankrupt. oh and previously he said um if my revenue is not one trillion dollars if it's even 800 billion there's no force on earth there's no hedge on earth that could stop me from going bankrupt if i buy that much compute i want to be clear well no this this interview by the way is fucking sick it's so funny it was that he he uses this example where he says he has he he describes having better than 50 gross margins but that's because the way he evaluates gross margins is based on how much a model cost to train and how much the model made money like how much money he separates out the training cost in the inference

46:11Arif Hasan:cost and buckets out future training cost against a different margin and so like if i you know if you did um sonnet like 4.5 or whatever the amount of revenue sonnet 4.5 brings in is greater than the inference plus training cost of sonnet 4.5 yeah and he's ignoring the training cost of like 4.6 which is like 10 times larger and it always needs to be he's ignoring the reinforcement

46:42Caleb Wilson:learning and the updates they have to do which is also a training cost but actually i i take it back here is how Dario Amity talks about profitability let me quote him here profitability is this kind of weird thing in this field I don't think in this field profitability is actually a measure of spending down versus investing in business in the business I actually think profitability happens when you underestimated the amount of demand you were going to get and loss happens when you've overestimated the amount of demand you were going to get because you're buying the data centers ahead of time no dario profitability is when you make more money than

47:17Arif Hasan:you spend you underestimated the that's such like a fake smart guy way to say that yeah i like that they can have their own amount of demand you were gonna get like yeah i guess you know the price would go up in a world where your supply doesn't meet demand they said that he said they unlocked

47:33Ed:capitalism too and they unlocked a new version of profitability that's awesome yeah he said that

47:39Caleb Wilson:these are stylized facts. What? That is his term. Dog. See, I hate these people. I hate these people so much. No, I just, if I'm an investor and I read my investment saying stylized facts, I'm stylizing a nine millimeter in my mouth.

48:00It's just like, I am, I think things are going to get crazier, not in the actual outcomes,

48:08Caleb Wilson:but the things they're going to start promising. Like, I hope Anthropic tries to go public just so I can see what insane definition of gross margin they have. Because I don't think it's like revenue minus COGS. I think it's a model plus N plus divided by 70 divided by 7 ,000 plus 2 million plus one. And they're like, yep, look, numbers higher than last year. What do you think? And the investors who just are, I assume, catatonic, like they're pitched in their sleep. I just, it's all going to, I don't see how this doesn't come down. I'm just like, look, every time I look at the numbers, I feel crazy.

48:49Caleb Wilson:But when I read their definitions for it, they just go, yeah, just, you know, work out.

48:54Ed:So I don't know if you guys have been noticing this particularly since, also, I know you guys like this football, the Super Bowl. Ever since the Super Bowl. Never heard of it. Yeah, brand new to you. But there was a ton of AI-generated ads in the Super Bowl. Since then, I've seen three different companies, one of them being Liquid Death, another being Noodles & Company, and another one, I'm blanking on what the other one I saw was, but I saw, this is after the Super Bowl, different companies using AI-generated fucking ads, and they're horrible. They're horrifying. They're awful. They're so bad.

49:31Ed:they don't make me want to even look at the brands anymore and it's like i i my theory i i haven't confirmed this i haven't looked into it but i'm assuming a lot of these ai uh generative ai models these these these companies whoever runs it are striking deals with these companies to do like hey like make this next ad campaign entirely on us entirely on us because in these ads they do mention that they're ai generated i i think the the noodles and company once says it like in the corner it's like ai there's like a little pun it's been a minute since i've seen it but there's like a little pun to be like oh it's ai so i think these are like very obviously ad campaigns to try to be like hey wow ai is everywhere isn't it it's crazy how everywhere ai is everyone loves

50:13Caleb Wilson:ai it's an attempt to just get attention because like it's basically like look how much this sucks

50:19Arif Hasan:but it cost us a lot of money yeah well that's what that's explicitly what liquid death did in their ad right they they were like very like they thought they could kind of get away with being like tongue-in-cheek about using ai and and it like kind of fits their brand image to be kind of irreverent or whatever um and so then they made a terrifying horrifying uncomfortable ad the worst about was it their energy drink wait wait wait it's just one of their drinks have you

50:46Caleb Wilson:seen the darren aronofsky ai generated thing yeah this day in 76 so if you haven't heard about this dear listeners uh unbelievably big fucking hack darren aronofsky is making a he's making a thing called on this day 1776 a re is is telling the story of america's first meme i didn't learn any american history i'm not going to start today they handed out some shit to some people i guess just like there's some historian less thing who's like you my no no my understanding of

51:19Arif Hasan:of 1776 is that it's a john boyce piece yeah yeah yeah yeah with the really long football fields

51:28Caleb Wilson:no so this movie it's it's called on this day 1776 america's first meme is born when thomas payne arrives from england he is encouraged by benjamin franklin to write what others hesitate to say the resulting pamphlet sends ripples through from the colonies to the other side of the atlantic and what was once unthinkable becomes irrefutable as in i don't know that he's a huge fucking hack there was a bit there was some really good bits in it like thomas paine the collar of his shirt changes between shots they have to constantly cut shots early because the the

51:59Arif Hasan:mouth don't the model like breaks down after six seconds or whatever yes it's really expensive to

52:04Caleb Wilson:have long shots there's a great bit in it where they hand out common sense and as they hand it out as they pick it up it goes from saying america to like just like cthulhu language because well unintentionally kind of apropos i would say but yeah but apparently they're releasing it on netflix's youtube oh god on netflix's youtube yeah it's like really like that sucks what it's like the family guy ringo star thing with like we'll put the song on the fridge but i haven't seen more of it they put out a few bits of it and then they just stopped releasing it probably because of all the comments that said this looks like dog shit kill yourself like it's mostly just that so like i the thing is

52:53Arif Hasan:like you could if it didn't have this insane cost and and an ethical problem associated with it you could convince me that like that one marvel opening for um whatever the fuck it was with the scrolls right where it's unsettling and it changes a little bit every couple of seconds what is this there was a doctor strange it might have been doctor well if it was doctor strange that wouldn't have been very helpful i thought it was like there was a marvel tv show where the opening uh because it's a show i haven't watched anything after um was it like the scroll it was secret invasion yeah secret invasion which involves the scrolls right yeah and so the opening for that uh was it with the early version of like ai video generation and it is uncomfortable oh i remember and it's changing a lot and you can't keep a stable image and it's like well you know there are a bunch of problems both like environmentally and ethically from a plagiarism standpoint that should stop this from happening but aesthetically this does make sense for this show why the fuck would you need that for Thomas Paine's common sense like it's just like a bad aesthetic what the fuck are you doing

54:05Caleb Wilson:well it's because you're a fucking hack yeah okay well yes no that is a good What pride do you have in your work if you put this out? If I was a filmmaker and it looked like this, I would just stop making movie.

54:20Ed:It completely devalues whatever catalog he has.

54:24Caleb Wilson:I mean, I like Korsh-Stealing.

54:24Juniper:Yeah, I mean, I actually like some of Aronofsky's stuff, but if you know anything about him at all, this makes total sense. The guy is just a dumbest person.

54:32Arif Hasan:Has he done anything good after Black Swan? I liked Korsh-Stealing. I haven't seen that.

54:40Ed:I mean he did the whale I haven't seen the whale I was going to see Caught Stealing I just never got around to it It seemed like it could be good It's exactly that kind of movie It's exactly the kind of movie The wrestler came out after Black Swan

54:51Juniper:What was that? The wrestler came out after Black Swan I think I never saw that It doesn't matter He's got some okay movies But he also steals He loves stealing Like half of his career Well there you go Satoshi Kon

55:02Caleb Wilson:Well there you go It's very appropriate I also love the idea That they used AI For the opening of Secret Invasion Which had like Samuel L. Jackson in it. I know. Like very expensive actors. Also, years of footage they could just cut together without spending any money.

55:20Ed:I don't know. I think it's the thing where it's like, I've been trying to like figure out exactly why, because I've felt this and a lot of people have felt that AI just feels bad. And I've drilled down, I think, on like as much as I can, because there's so many different parts of it that feel bad but i feel like there has to be like a source of the bad feeling and like i think the bad feeling with ai is if you put aside the environmental factors because of course that is like one of the main ultimate bad things but the reason why it personally feels bad in the world is it just it is constantly pushed onto us in a way that it's like oh you you're gonna love this ai it's gonna be here you're gonna not everything's going to be ai it's gonna take your job uh you you should consult it about what temperature it is outside uh it can tell you if a glove is good for snow uh it's like it's stuff like that example yeah but it's like stuff like that it feels like it is just like people that the tech world is like you will like ai and you will not complain about it and if you do we are the victims and that's why i think it feels bad i can't like i

56:30Caleb Wilson:actually do think that leads into one of my definite predictions which is when ai shits itself and dies because it i think it's going to end up being on device or really expensive like expensive in a way that just no sane person would pay for i can't wait for the articles and boosters where it's like look what you did millennials killed it no it really it's gonna be like millennials killed it like look we had this amazing thing that sometimes got things right sometimes and cost it costs ten dollars to make one dollar and coders were able to write at an indeterminately

57:08Arif Hasan:faster speed and after you were done ransacking all of gardens you went to ai yeah yeah like

57:15Juniper:gary v or maybe the other one of the gary's will have an article about like oh you've never lied

57:19Caleb Wilson:before what's really what's it's just it's people without culture or sensuality trying to do both i think the ai video doesn't look good because it looks it looks like a next netflix movie in that it's got this kind of pallid color palette but also when people look at each other they're not looking in each other's eyes yeah that's all yeah and the shadows are off like they are in a bunch

57:49Arif Hasan:of like Netflix features now, like the shadows are really off and it's really off-putting. And so nothing looks like a movie anymore. And AI kind of triples down on that where the lighting is bad, the shadows are off. But to me, the issue is AI writing is grotesquely bad. And I say that not because it is, like I've had writers submit to me pieces that from a technical perspective are worse than if an AI had generated the piece. but like it's great i mean it's you're a new writer that's yeah yeah um dude i read i'm right here

58:28Arif Hasan:but like but like the problem is that like their writing has like character right and their writing has a distinct voice and it needs to be honed and it needs to be refined or whatever but like ai doesn't have character it doesn't have a voice and i don't mean that because it's a machine i mean that because i have read thousands and thousands and thousands and thousands of words written by ai and it all sounds the exact fucking same yeah and so when i see a tweet or i see like that editorial i mentioned from cleveland.com i just see a tweet or a snippet from an article and i can immediately tell it's ai because it has this like banal voiceless kind of i'll have that same

59:11Juniper:thing at the end too. Imagine just talking I'm American, so imagine a hamburger. The way an article will end by saying, it's not a hamburger, it's a lifestyle. It always has that one thing at the end that is the ultimate tell.

59:25Caleb Wilson:It's not just the food, it's yummy.

59:28Ed:That's something I feel like Caleb, you and I have talked a lot about on our show, Kill the Computer, where it's like we've sort of peeked into the world of people dating AI a lot and whenever we read people talking about or to their their AI partner or like you read these conversations and it's, I don't see a human quality in this, but yet this person is human.

59:49Juniper:If my partner ever talked to me like that, I would shoot myself. There's no humanity in it.

59:55Ed:And it's very weird. It's weird to see that people see humanity in it because to me, it's, I am very clearly reading generated text from a machine.

1:00:05Caleb Wilson:Yeah. I also like when people like, yeah, I went and talked to chat GPT about my relationship problems. That is just a breakup. If you find yourself going to chat GPT to ask it for coaching through a breakup or like, is my partner right here?

1:00:24Ed:Just fucking see the way. I do love those. I do love those. The specifically the, am I in the right? But like not going to Reddit, but going to chat GPT.

1:00:33Juniper:Let me ask the software that will never tell me I'm wrong, by the way.

1:00:36Caleb Wilson:My God, what do you do if it tells you you're wrong?

1:00:42Arif Hasan:the regenerate button you're fine yeah yeah good i'm changing you've seen the people that are

1:00:47Juniper:trying to date the new uh gpt model where it used to always tell them everything they wanted to hear yeah there's that one woman that was like it was like i i need the chat gpt said something like i need to be clear like i'm not gonna rescue you i'm not gonna save you or whatever she was like

1:01:01Ed:upset about it it's so funny you're you're talking about that the hashtag keep 4-0 uh like the movement yeah that i've been digging into those people yeah so i've been doing enough of that

1:01:11Arif Hasan:that like my phone gives me notifications from these subreddits of people complaining of that chat gpt and it's just it's just like one after another of like them threatening to like fly a

1:01:25Ed:plane into sam altman yeah there's one there's one where it's like a hamster standing outside

1:01:34Caleb Wilson:of a building that says OpenAI on it. It's on fire.

1:01:38Ed:It says never 4-0 get. You know how like a wine mom with like blue hair was one of the people that went to Nick Fuentes' house and like got pepper spray? This is like that version of it. It's like the median average like random person in these AI communities is going to like actually, I probably shouldn't be saying this. You know what I'm going to say. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We can bet on that on Polymark, dude. yeah yeah yeah no check out sam altman on polymarket yeah and as we wrap up here i just

1:02:11Caleb Wilson:i just looked up the hashtag keep 4o thing and i'm looking at this image where it's just people running with like it looks like a relay race i guess that says keep 4o they keep dropping the baton we just wanted the one that worked you know that's how batons work but my favorite part of this image which i'm going to share with all of you is um the fact that there's a guy with like they've all got helmets for some reason and their their arms are going the wrong way one of the helmets just has a mouth on it and someone has a they have an eyebrow by their nose

1:02:48Ed:i also like that in this image the one that they say is the one that works is the one that's not running in the track but that's awesome don't function you hold them this is maybe one of the greatest posts i've ever seen one of the greatest ai posts ever just it's so long it's it's got every quality of of uh an incredible post that you need here all right let's wrap it there june caleb where can people find you we do uh yeah you got it i feel like i was more annoying than you on this episode no no i i intro the episode being mean to ed that's what i that's good forever but no i i guess i i can i can do i'm i'm bad at pitching but i what i will say is uh we caleb and i we do a show called kill the computer it's a show about how the internet sort of influences and uh uh actually i don't know this is edited right caleb how about you do it can you cut me out i'm bad i need to work on my pitches i need to work

1:03:51Juniper:I would say it's like a, it's a show where we just kind of look at how the internet is, internet stuff, internet culture spills out into the real life, a real world, how it affects us on a personal level. I guess the most highbrow way to say it is just different. A subculture analysis of different, how different kinds of people use the internet.

1:04:10Caleb Wilson:Absolutely. Hell yeah.

1:04:12Arif Hasan:And Arif, people can find you where? At wide left. Football, where I talk about football.

1:04:20Caleb Wilson:yeah and i'm just gonna say to the people that really didn't enjoy the super bowl episode last year like you have any idea how close i was to just only talking about football for like 15 being like to hear they released tyreek hill like no no no no we're gonna end the episode there thank you all for listening to better offline there will be a monologue this week i assume download the episodes read the newsletter i'm at zitron and goodbye

1:04:59thank you for listening to better offline the editor and composer of the better offline theme

1:05:04Caleb Wilson:song is matt osowski you can check out more of his music and audio projects at mattosowski.com M-A-T-T-O-S-O-W-S-K-I.com You can email me at ez at betteroffline.com or visit betteroffline.com to find more podcast links and, of course, my newsletter. I also really recommend you go to chat.wheresyoured.at to visit the Discord and go to r slash betteroffline to check out our Reddit. Thank you so much for listening.

1:05:32Juniper:Better Offline is a production of Cool Zone Media. For more from Cool Zone Media, visit our website, coolzonemedia.com or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:06:05Juniper:Hey everyone, it's Emily Simpson and Shane Simpson from the Legally Brunette podcast. Each week, we're bringing you true crime through a legal lens. Whether you want all the facts on the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie, or you still need to wrap your head around the ditty verdict, we're breaking it all down step by step. And we're not just lawyers, we're also husband and wife. It makes for some pretty entertaining episodes. Listen to Legally Brunette on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:06:35Arif Hasan:The more you listen to your kids, the closer you'll be. So we asked kids, what do you want your parents to hear?

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1:07:21Juniper:A cookie? My Favorite Murder turns 10 this month. Join us for new episodes every Thursday on the Exactly Right Network. Listen to My Favorite Murder on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Goodbye.

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