Monologue: Dealing With The Weight Of History

0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Run a business and not thinking about podcasting? Think again. More Americans listen to podcasts, then add supported streaming music from Spotify and Pandora. And as the number one podcaster, iHeart's twice as large as the next two combined. Learn how podcasting can help your business. Call 844-844-IHEART. Call Zone Media. Hello and welcome to this week's Better Offline monologue. I'm your host, Ed Zitron.

0:37and god damn am i tired i i'm so tired of watching this routine this goddamn routine every single earnings a big tech company talks about the wonder of ai they post growth of revenue and the finance media writes that that growth came from selling ai despite the fact that none of these companies actually say how much they've earned from selling either AI software or renting out GPUs. Isn't that weird? Isn't that really weird? We're two years in, three years in, honestly, and not a single one of them mentions how much they make from AI. Microsoft did it two quarters running, then they stopped. Not a problem.

1:15No need to check in on the company that has now spent over $200 billion since 2022 building data centers full of GPUs so that they could make an amount of revenue that they are deciding not to share. Like just, are they shy? Are they shy? Is the revenue too good? Oh, I couldn't possibly. I'm too shy. I couldn't share my AI revenue. Perhaps somebody should report this out sometime. In any case, everybody is aggressively, intensely ignoring the elephant in the room. OpenAI, the billion dollar baby that loves burning billions of dollars, who both the California and Delaware Attorneys General decided to let convert to a for-profit entity.

1:52And guess what? OpenAI is already gearing up to go public in 2027. You know what? Fuck him. Let them. Let them file a goddamn S1. Show me the innards of this company. I bet OpenAI's books are going to look like a dog's dinner coming out of its arsehole on Thanksgiving. The Register reported earlier this week that, as disclosed as part of Microsoft's earnings, OpenAI lost over$11 billion in the last quarter. Why are any of us pretending this makes sense? Why? Why are we doing this? Why are we pretending that OpenAI makes sense as a company? What does this company do? What have they done previously?

2:28And what will they do in the future that justifies any of this? I don't know if I have AI booster listeners. I don't know if any of you are really big AI fans. I don't know. If you are, please contact me and tell me why you believe it's worth it and if your answer is well companies burned a lot of money to get to where they were in the future what has to come out of this entity that will justify this expense because that's really the thing that i'm rolling around in my mind what justifies all of this what justifies the capex what justifies the open ai wants to raise 60 billion dollars at the ipo in 2027 it'll never happen but nevertheless like what is it that justifies all that is it the data centers what will the data centers do nothing it's going to be more of the same and that's before you get to the fact that the demand isn't there it's just exhausting i know i'm repeating myself i'm not really gonna stop though i have no intention of stopping in fact i think i'm gonna go harder and i know it's really easy at times like this when the world feels suffocating and illogical and unforgiving and dishonest and frustrating and confusing, to turn our guns inward, to tear down and to disarm and disparage, to fight back through isolating ourselves further.

3:49But these are the motives and moves of those who do not see a future, who crave an eternal status quo where history must repeat the enrichment cycles, the same mistakes that left us in a growth-driven near-apocalypse for three straight years, that have empowered charlatans like Altman and Amadei because they resembled stories of the past heroes of the tech industry like Uber and aws enough to keep you warm and fuzzy every night without worrying about whether gravity exists good sense and mathematics don't need to matter when you're smoking enough copium that you're already imagining your next trip to visit the remains of the titanic so i'm going to tell you something i'm going to tell you to do something dramatic and yes we all know where this is from but i want you to say this out loud as quietly as you want or as loudly as you want fuck these people doesn't that feel good fuck these people fuck them god i'm told i can't swear that you can't address this financial insanity without anything other than the calm poise of a fucking monk but how else am i meant to react to sam altman promising super intelligence for the umpteenth time or claiming in 2027 or 2028 we'll have automated ai science or signing deals for a trillion dollars of stuff that his company can never afford am i meant to applaud am i meant to be excited?

5:02Look at the rest of the tech industry. I mean, you can look at ChatGPT, but even outside of it. Our social networks look terrible. Facebook is a minefield of scams and AI slop. Instagram is 50 % ads or more. Our email accounts are full of spam. I get five spam calls a day. Everything needs a fucking account. Fuck the future for a second. Can we just get the things that we use every day to fucking work again? Or is that too much to ask in an era where everything must grow eternally. I swear to God, the most impressive technology anybody could launch this year is something that actually does what it's fucking meant to.

5:36Pardon me for being a little salty, but God, every day in the news somebody talks about how we're in the midst of a glorious era of artificial intelligence, yet the products we use have never felt dumber. It's trite, I know, but three years into a hype cycle specifically oriented around intelligent software that changes our life, it feels like I should have something, anything that feels like it's measurably improved. Every product feels worse. Everything. Put aside how you may feel about AI and be real. Is there something out there that's actually improved for you? Is there a single thing that's gotten better?

6:11And God, if you say, well, the models have improved a bit, who fucking cares? What does that do for you in a practical sense. What exactly has been done between 2022 and 2025 that actually matters? Whoop-de-fucking-doo, ChatGPT's got a lot of free use as well. Some people use it for code, some people use it and feel deeply buried mental health symptoms activate it, some people use it for search. This is where we're at and this is where we've been and honestly this is where we're always going to be. Why exactly did Big Tech spend over 80 billion dollars in capital expenditures in the last quarter.

6:48What's the point? Why not sink some of that capex into making your products better or your users happier? Why not make your products work properly? And again, perhaps that's just impossible for generative AI. Perhaps that's what Copilot and Gemini do. Maybe they just fuck stuff up. Maybe they're meant to only half work. Great. They get to lose money. Their customers hate it. It's a real win-win scenario. And look, while OpenAI may claim to be building the future, it's clear what they want to do is continue the existence of the status quo. Of those that finance the status quo making money off of it.

7:23Of those that herald the status quo's latest ideas getting the clicks. That continue the Valley's rotten cycle of allowing companies to consume as much venture capital as they want until they can cash out. I think they've kind of given up on the thing where it's like, oh, we make something useful and sell it because it's good. OpenAI is not interested in innovation. They want to be a social network, a consumer tech startup, a software as a service company, a business productivity company, or whatever form will make the company grow as big as they want, even if said growth is deeply unprofitable.

7:52All that matters is that it grows. It's cancerous. It's depressing. It's frustrating when you meet people who they can't help but go to bat for this stuff. They claim it's amazing, but their justifications are flimsy. And they get mad at you. They get so mad at you for trying to burst that bubble, for trying to make them talk in practical terms. Because AI does something to everyone that loves it. Sure that there are definitely some people that can use it healthily, fine. But I believe something about this product, because it makes you, to make it do anything useful, put in so much effort to gaslight yourself into believing it's good, that you simply must defend it.

8:36because if you don't defend it you have to admit that the software is training you not the other way around and the most vociferous boosters are so deeply deeply in the hole dig up stupid that they can't help but defend it they can't help but attack those who would not defend ai that they can't help but claim that the mediocre is amazing and that the future will come from stuff that sucks shit. And that's where we are right now. And in times like this, it's easy to feel defeated and even easier to feel depleted. But I encourage you to focus on one thing, solidarity. The news may make you think that darkness is a monolith, that there are few people that feel like you do, but they do and they are everywhere.

9:25They are your friends, your family, and even the members of the Better Offline subreddit. If you feel dark or lonely or lost or ground down by everything, know that many of us do too. You may feel terribly lonely, but even in our mangled, broken internet, there is community everywhere. And even if you may not believe it, people love you and feel the way you do too. Reach out to me at easy at betteroffline.com if you ever want to chat. I can't promise I can read and respond to every single one, but I try to. And the subreddit is there for you too. And I'm on there too. It may feel like the forces against us are all powerful, but they are not.

9:58They're committed to burning billions of dollars only because they know that the second that they stop, the bubble will pop, and they will be revealed as the directionless charlatans they've always been. I believe now that every dollar spent on GPUs will ultimately be a waste, as I can find no compelling evidence that it's possible to make margin on them before they die in, what, the four to six years that they actually have any value. And I believe all of you will feel vindicated in time. It will be much easier to weather the difficult times we're in with friends and allies, and even more fun to celebrate victory with company.

10:31It's easy to give up. It's easy to feel discouraged in the face of adversity, to feel separated from others, to believe that isolation and turning inward is the only response. But I want you to feel emboldened by sorrow, to seek the comfort and energy of others, to make friends, to break bread, to build solidarity, and realize that you're never alone and will never be alone. You may feel like backing down, that the pressure against you by powerful forces is too much. And I tell you that it isn't. and that the only reason that pressure exists is because they fear and may even know that you are right.

11:03Thank you for listening to this show, for giving me your time, for giving me your patience and attention. I deeply appreciate your kindness and support. Tomorrow I'm going to put out a really important premium newsletter about how GPUs may never be profitable, and then next week, believe it or not, I may have something even bigger. In any case, I could not ask for better listeners. Thank you again.

11:32When news broke earlier this year that baby KJ, a newborn in Philadelphia, had successfully received the world's first personalized gene editing treatment, it represented a milestone for both researchers and patients. But there's a gripping tale of discovery behind this accomplishment and its creators. I'm Evan Ratliff, and together with biographer Walter Isaacson, we're delving into the story of Nobel Prize winner Jennifer Doudna, the woman who's helped change the trajectory of humanity. Listen to On CRISPR, the story of Jennifer Doudna with Walter Isaacson on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

12:26In this episode, we dive into how cops are using AI and facial recognition and sometimes getting it wrong and putting innocent people behind bars. So if your accuser is this algorithm, but you're not even being told that it was used, let alone given any of the details about how it works. Listen to Kill Switch on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Michael Lewis here. My best-selling book, The Big Short, tells the story of the buildup and burst of the U.S. housing market back in 2008. A decade ago, The Big Short was made into an Academy Award-winning movie. And now I'm bringing it to you for the first time as an audiobook narrated by yours truly.

13:09The Big Short's story, what it means to bet against the market, and who really pays for an unchecked financial system, is as relevant today as it's ever been. Get the Big Short now at pushkin.fm slash audiobooks or wherever audiobooks are sold. Did it occur to you that he'd charmed you in any way? Yes, it did. But he was a charming man. It looks like the ingredients of a really grand spy story. Because this ties together the Cold War with the new one. I often ask myself now, did I know the true Jan at all? Listen to Hot Money, Agent of Chaos on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

13:56This is an iHeart Podcast.