More, Everything, Forever With Adam Becker

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0:37More Americans listen to podcasts than ad supported streaming music from Spotify and Pandora. And as the number one podcaster, iHeart's twice as large as the next two combined. Learn how podcasting can help your business. Call 844-844-IHEART. 2%. That's the number of people who take the stairs when there is also an escalator available. I'm Michael Easter, and on my podcast, 2%, I break down the science of mental toughness, fitness, and building resilience in our strange modern world. Put yourself through some hardships, and you will come out on the other side a happier, more fulfilled, healthier person.

1:12Listen to 2%, that's T-W-O-percent, on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:28Hello and welcome to Better Offline, I'm your host Ed Zitron.

1:41Better Offline. As ever, go to the episode notes to sign up to the newsletter, please do the premium, it's how I make my money, buy a fuck data centers t-shirt, or join one of the assorted communities if you ever want to fall further into the larger Zitronverse. But today we're joined by the author of more Everything Forever. That's right, journalist and astrophysicist Adam Becker. Adam, how you doing? I'm doing well, Ed. How are you? Got a new podcast, don't you? Yeah, I do. It's called Dreaming Against the Machine and it just came out pretty recently. What's about? Well, it's like a more optimistic version of this podcast.

2:17Okay, no, I like this. I want to hear about that. Tell me. Yeah. So, you know, I spent a lot of time when I was writing my book, More Everything Forever, thinking about terrible people and their bad ideas about the future. And that made me want to think more about good ideas about the future and people who I actually like. And so the podcast is about, you know, trying to imagine what a realistic good future could look like. Yeah. Can you give me some examples? Oh, no, I have no idea. Oh, OK. Yeah. Still working that one out. Yeah. Still figuring that out. I mean, that's that's sort of the podcast is me thinking out loud about these things with different guests each week.

3:02So, yeah, I mean, it's certainly a future where we found a way to wrench power away from these tech billionaires. uh and yeah it's not a future that involves like you know space colonization and super intelligent ai um but uh more than that i'm still figuring that out that's that's what the podcast is for yeah i do get a good amount of people who email and are like yeah well why don't you do you talk about more positive things on the show a it's tough to find them but b also sometimes when i do it people get mad at me yeah but people like i don't think that you mr shill i don't think you mind people being mad at you ed i yeah i don't but at the same time it's like when i'm like i mentioned this uh nebula x1 uh projector thing i really like it's quite expensive it's like this insane thing in like a box as a projector it's like got the speakers you can plug in they're wireless and it's beautiful that works really well i talked about that once and i have people email me saying ed you're a shill you're being a shill you can't and it's like oh my christ do i have to hate everything because there's plenty i do don't get me wrong yeah i feel like you get plenty yeah but i feel like there are some really good things like i feel like if america was not under the gastocracy right now we would be in a kind of golden era of solar like i have solar in my house in vegas and barely paying electricity bill.

4:39It's kind of magic. It's kind of amazing. Yeah. But yeah, no, I mean, there's a lot of great technology and solar is a really good example. Like the solar technology has gotten really great. Battery technology has gotten really great. I think that these are wonderful things. And yeah, if we weren't subsidizing fossil fuels and actually thinking clearly about both what is the cheapest and most effective sources of energy and what would be best for the climate and the planet, I think it would be pretty clear that we'd be going through an even faster energy transition than we are already. Wouldn't energy also be cheaper if we were mass solar?

5:20I'm sure someone's going to hate me for saying that. I think that's true. I'd have to look at the numbers, but solar is, I believe, the cheapest source of energy at the moment. It has been for a bit. What if instead we could just have natural gas everywhere? which is very cheap, I'm hearing at the moment. Yeah, I mean. There's lots of it. Nothing's happened to the supply. Of course. Everyone's fine. Yeah, everything's fine. Nothing is broken. And we're getting really tired of winning. Yeah. Talking of thinking, though, we're talking beyond, just before we got on, one of the most insane things I think I have heard a tech CEO say, and I say this as someone who's heard Alex Karp speak before, Mark Andreessen saying he doesn't have introspection.

6:05Yes. This was kind of my favorite thing that's happened recently. Right. For values of favorite, where I mean like horrible and unhinged. But yeah, no, he said that he doesn't introspect and that introspection was invented in Vienna a hundred years ago by Sigmund Freud. And like, okay, what do you think that, I don't know, Hamlet was about? What do you think? All right. What was Hamlet about? Hamlet was about a guy who cried a lot when his life was awesome. Same with Macbeth, same deal. Yeah, exactly. Like, what does he think? Midsummer Night's Dream, drugs. But, like, what does he think? Just ruining Shakespeare, life on air.

6:54Yeah, exactly. Like all art, like any, any, any form of art pretty much ever created by anyone at any point in history. Like, why does he believe this? I think, you know, it does seem like Mark Andreessen doesn't think he doesn't, he doesn't introspect. But what's going on in that magical brain all the time? That magical brain, the egg-like brain that he has. the fucking like the dr robot neck yes yeah it's so funny as well because i'm constantly introspective to the point where i'm like tearing up my own theories and things that i've done and thought about again and again and again it's one of the enjoyable things about being human yeah exactly one's ability to reflect yeah that's kind of makes sense when you look at all the ai stuff though yeah i mean i think that for someone like andreason he's gotten so wealthy and so powerful he's not used to hearing no and introspection from that perspective is just an opportunity to tell yourself no and why would he ever do that to himself but um you know llms definitely never introspect they're not really capable of it uh yeah and you know we we uh we've got this chain of reasoning stuff that's supposedly like introspection but it's not and i think that if you don't introspect that's going to make it so much easier to be fooled into thinking that these things are thinking yeah and also i like the chain of thought reasoning because if you think that's what thinking's like you must not think so hard yeah because it's just what is thinking well every time i hear literally anything i think what would they what do they mean by that what am i it's like every single thought you have is a tucker carlson monologue what do they mean yes what is that yes what do you mean how's my day how's my day today it's the afternoon is it like is it just the daytime do i care about nighttime now does this person care about me do they care about my family what's going on here just like in this constant state of like confusion and then using way too much energy to just go, yes, fine.

9:10Yeah. It's fine. I'm all right. You know, keep yourself busy. It's just what I don't get is what I mean. I take that back. Yeah, I actually totally get this. But if you're that rich, you have so much more time to do so many more interesting things and think about them, for example. Yeah. You know, just like a book or like a song or at that price, at the amount of money that he has, He could just be like, I wouldn't mind seeing, I don't know, Public Enemy. I bet I could just call all of them and pay them all to just do a concert in my living room. I don't think Marc Andreessen is a big Public Enemy fan, but just for the sake of example.

9:50Right, yeah. And it's very, it gets me back to this thought I've had this whole time with the LLM era, where it's like, this is just the digital dunce cap era. This is when we find out all the people who just have not been thinking the entire time, who just all they've been doing is just walk around going like money, money, money, growth. Is it like Facebook? Is it like Facebook? It reminds me of Mark Zuckerberg. Give him a million dollars. Wait, he needs$10 million. Give him 20 just in case someone else gives him 10. Just this constant state of like angry anxiety. Yeah. I mean, God, what was it?

10:28I saw this LLM startup advertising somewhere online that was saying that they were going to do your intellectual labor for you and they were going to do your homework for you and stuff like that in school. And I'm like, do you know what intellectual labor is saying that you're going to do it for me? Because they were saying then you just get to reap the benefits of the intellectual labor. And I'm like, okay, saying that you're going to do it for me and then I get to reap the benefits is sort of like saying you have a robot that's going to do pull-ups badly. And if I just watch it do pull-ups badly, then I will somehow get stronger.

11:08Like, that's just not how it works. That's not how thinking works. Well, it kind of reminds me. I saw this Andre Carpath. You remember Andre Carpath? He's one of the many co-founders of OpenAI. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And he posted this thing the other day where he was like, yeah, I was spending hours working on like a private wiki for all of his research. Not his research project, but stuff he was like looking into strongly. And it's like, yeah, and then you can use an LLM to ask it questions. It's like, why? Like, just why? Yeah. Like, I would get it if he was, like, to be clear, if he was saying, I, as a scientist, I'm collecting tons of data and I want to have it in a place I can poke at it.

11:50Fine. It didn't seem, he was suggesting it was very much, like, just researching the stuff he was looking at on, like, his personal knowledge base. It's like, what is going on in your brain, mate? What are you thinking about all day? It's just like, oh, wouldn't it be great if all these thoughts I was having were in a wiki format in Obsidian? i mean oh christ also the whole point of a wiki is that anyone can edit it why does he want anyone to be able to edit something that he's using well it's not anyone it's just him yeah it's just him it's just his wiki right but that's just but that's just a document that's just like a word document that's i don't understand no i don't either and like i there was a guy underneath there who i'm just gonna be in a newsletter i'm working on today that will actually be out before this whatever yeah um and there was a guy below but he said yeah i'm doing a less professional version of this using open claw it's like to catalog what great thoughts exactly that's what what grand missives from the depths of the brain minds do you fuckwits have what going on because every time i see my new game is to anytime i see someone just being like i i should a i'm I'm running 11 agents concurrently and they're doing this and that.

13:07I try and find what it is they're working on. I've never been able to. Never. There are images of like, there's like a photo of them with like 19 terminal windows. The CC usage saying they spent two and a half thousand dollars and a$100 a month subscription. But you can never just like look at them. You can just be like, oh, wow, you're cooking. They don't know what they're working on half the time, right? They've got one of those processes is like an agent where they asked it, oh, come up with ideas, right? Yeah, come up with ideas, work on an interface series to observe in Figma, and then have another agent look at that and say, this is the one.

13:49And then at the end, something will happen. I'm sorry, can we just pause for a second? The fact that there's something called Figma, like, it's just a Ligma joke. I don't understand. It is. Yeah, how did they do this? Yeah, but Figma's kind of useful. Sure, no, absolutely. I'm not saying it's not useful. I'm just saying the name. The name is a problem. Yeah, having to walk around saying Figma. Yeah. It's kind of like having to say Hadoop. Yes. Hadoop or Superbase. Yeah. Versal's fine, but there are a lot of, even Anthropic is a stupid name. Yeah. I think we need to return to an era where we only let Taiwan name our companies.

14:32because look you got hon high precision limited now there's a company name time one semiconductor manufacturing corporation yeah that's exactly what they do exactly i know i nothing fancy don't need to you got quanta i assume that's something to do with one of their founders maybe they named it if you named it before the 80s it's fine but like no more startup names you can't do dot lee and anything figma nope call it like i don't know art corporation dot biz like i've I don't care. Just make this easier for me. But nevertheless, it's, we were all stuck about this before. And there is another theory that I'm growing with LLM as well, which is, and I'm specifically leading to the journalists using AI one.

15:15It kind of feels like all of these agentic quote unquote processes are taking up more energy than just doing them normally. Yep. Yeah. I think that's exactly right. Way more. Yeah. Cause like, you know, all of this just feels like people trying to avoid the hard work of having to think, right? Especially if you're looking at people using this instead, you know, as a way of writing. The old saw is that writing is thinking. And I also think, you know, I mean, another old saw is that writing is rewriting, right? And so when people say, oh, I'm just using it for editing. And like, that's part of the writing process.

15:50If you're using it for editing, you're using it for writing. And that's like, that's not good.

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17:37This Wired piece is particularly bizarre. Like, I don't need to think about Kevin Roos too much. I don't think he certainly doesn't, and I won't. But Alex Heath, Alex is a weird one because he's been around tech journalism for 15-something years. Doesn't seem like a terrible bloke. But he describes this process of writing his newsletter, where he claims he feels like he is cheating. And I quote Max Zeph, the reporter of Wired.

18:37Then Claude Cowork then automates the drafting process that used to take place in his head. To your point, you were completely correct. After the agent finishes its draft, Heath goes back and forth with it for up to 30 minutes suggesting revisions. It's quite an involved process and he still writes some parts of the story himself. But Heath says the workflow saves him hours every week and that he now spends 30-40 % less time writing. Yeah, mate, how much time do you spend prompting? Yeah, and also 30-40%, even if that's accurate. it 30 to 40 percent less time in order to produce something that's writing in the smeared out voice of the internet and yes you're trying to get it to write more like you but come on and and also you know i i just i don't understand why they would be willing to relinquish not just the the process but also the sort of like intellectual ownership i i don't mean like you know, in the, in the like intellectual property sense, but like, like the, I wrote this thing.

19:40Yeah. And, and, and like the, the way that you know something when you wrote it that you, you can't know even if you were there for the editing. Like I know, I mean, I, you know, I'm, I'm getting older as we all do until we die. And as I get older, my memory is, you know, not as good as it used to be. I think it's still pretty good, but you know, I have trouble remembering all sorts of things that I didn't used to have trouble remembering but I know the stuff that I've written inside and out because I was in there you know in the trenches with it writing it yeah and and so I know it you know chapter and verse why would you give up having that kind of knowledge of your own work and your own thinking well that's the thing look for me with my writing as well it's not just like the writing and the reading all that it's i will be writing something and i will think and in my case it would be like didn't the information mentioned in june 2024 the open ai's annualized revenue like i will go through an insane chain of events in my brain but it's because of my interaction with the work that i remember that stuff it isn't just and then i linked to thingy and then think it was way that that reminds me of something I was working on in 2024, 2025.

20:59And I'm not sure that, I'm not sure that these people have had that joy of an experience. Yeah. I don't even mean this condescendingly. I just mean there is a certain joy to being like, wait, I remember this and digging something out that you painstakingly read and probably didn't even use at the time. Yep. Yeah. No, that's exactly it. It sucks. And also it seems like more work. yes i agree this seems like way more work to me like i am okay i connect all of these things and i make sure they work and i've written a long text document also he says that it's got all of his old articles in it wouldn't that fill up that context window anyway yeah putting all that technical stuff aside yeah yeah yeah no i mean i just um i don't understand because like if you don't write it, then you're not thinking your way through it.

21:54And like, yeah, okay. I go into writing something and I have sort of an idea of what it's going to be, but it's as I write it that I realize what I actually think about these things. And I get to a spot in the writing where I'm stuck and I realize, oh, I'm stuck because there was something that I thought I understood or two ideas that I thought were connected. And now I'm realizing the connection is less clear or my understanding is less good than I thought it was. And so I have to sit down and work it out or I have to go check an idea that I realized I was taking for granted and maybe it wasn't true.

22:26And then this stuff is out there in the world with my name on it. And I just can't imagine having something out in the world with my name on it that I wasn't dead sure of and felt that I had thought my own way through on. Otherwise, I'd die of shame. Same. Yeah. Like, I fuck stuff up. I make typos. Most people love to email me about them. And they sure do more than they say nice things, in fact. But it's the beauty of that fuck up that makes it mine. But on top of that, you have said this, and Cal Newport recently said it as well, where it's people are scared of thinking. And I extend that to, Cal also said, concentration.

23:14I extend it to friction. I think that that moment you just described when you're like wait what does what does that mean what does that mean wait what do you well no wait i don't get that yeah that moment is deeply uncomfortable that is introspection yeah like and it sucks and when you don't like i spent a lot of last night learning about the japanese economy because me curious little critter and it does tie into things in worrying ways but and there were moments where i'm like great okay oh the plaza record what's that oh christ i have to learn another thing oh what's this oh there's some sort of dilemma oh japanese economies are And there were constant points.

23:50I'm like, what does this, why am I fucking stupid? Why don't I understand this? But that's how you get smart. That's how you learn things. And you, I don't see how you do that. Having an LLM burp stuff up for you, even if it's based on things you have said. yeah no i think that's exactly right um yeah also if it's just reading stuff you've written before is that like at some point it's going to stop being you entirely because it's just eventually it's just going to be more ai than person very weird yeah no i i completely agree And you're also, I mean, this to me is bringing me back to something that I said, I think the first time I was on your podcast, which is that in a way this is taking the sort of billionaire experience and making it like the billionaire cognitive experience and making it available for everyone because billionaires never have to do anything uncomfortable like think.

24:56Yeah. I mean, it's also reminding me of one of my favorite tweets of all time, which I just found and I'm going to read it to you. Being a billionaire must be insane. You can buy new teeth, new skin. All your chairs cost$20 ,000 and weigh 2 ,000 pounds. Your life is just a series of your own preferences. In terms of cognitive impairment, it's probably like being kicked in the head by a horse every day. yeah i think i'd be fine but yeah yeah i mean i would be good i think a billion dollars i'd be just fine i feels like a skill issue to me i oh it's definitely a skill issue although you're also yeah yeah yeah the uh of you know that uh the arrested development meme of like no it never works for anyone else but it just might work for us yeah exactly yeah people fool themselves to think this would work for them yeah i and i also think that there is a busy box mentality to it as well when you start using these things and it's very clear from the moment you start using them that they will not just do anything on their own you can't just be like do this yep like just just check this out what do you like will you do this and it spits out lots of stories about things being one-shotted but very few actual examples that matter to me or really anyone I talk to it's like oh it fixed one problem but you can't just say do this entire task yeah so once you've done that I know my reaction to that is always the fuck is this I don't I'm I don't log on to a website have it break and then go that's okay I use another website but I think that there is something about the experience that because it's so convoluted and you have to contrive all of these little doohickeys like fucking Pee Wee Herman making breakfast yet when you get to the end of it you're like wow i'm so smart i made the i made it do this but also i'm going to give it credit for the thing that i ended up doing most of the work on if i'm honest right i mean but this is also this is part of why i think the people who are most convinced that this is going to take over every job and one shot everything are so often software engineers because yeah okay this thing is changing the way that people code and does seem to be able to you know write some code for some people but you know that's a limited human task right and and even for people whose job is you know to be a software engineer the actual writing of code is is just one part of of what the job is and the thing that's i think that the trap that these people fall into a lot of the time is they believe that their job software engineering writing code is like the the ultimate human intellectual achievement and so if you have something that can do that it must be able to do anything and that's just not true and it can also it can do that kind of yeah like it's like it can write code yep but no one also can seem to explain what that means in the end because all these companies it does sound like you've got companies where you've got a bunch of people just not writing any code yep and i hate to ask now what yeah like really they're not firing anyone and the largely across the entire software stack things seem to be getting worse so yeah good i mean it's like question mark yeah i mean anthropics uh claude code you know code base dropped and they're like yeah we wrote claude code with claude code and then there were a bunch of coders in there saying yeah i can tell that you did i also love that we're meant to be scared of claude mythos this thing that can find this obvious marketing trick yes that can find any number it can find every vulnerability and everything and that's other than the fact it required human human people to actually find the vulnerabilities and coaching and yep and indeed like one of the main but one of the main exploits of free bsd was not actually exploitable you could just make it crash like and regardless Yeah.

29:23But they couldn't find the vulnerabilities in their own software. Yeah. I mean, I'm sure, like, I'm very willing to believe that it's a helpful tool for finding certain kinds of vulnerabilities. But you're completely right. This is a marketing gimmick. Come on. It is. And it's also, I'm kind of honestly a little bit scared of how well it worked on people. Yeah. like how many people just like yeah this is the scariest thing ever i will because i couldn't see it it's because we've got this this narrative that comes out of these you know ai cults like the rationalists that uh that ai is going to take over the world and be able to you know make itself super intelligent and end humanity once it's able to write its own code and all of that's just a sci-fi fantasy but you know it makes it very easy for anthropic to do these sorts of marketing gimmicks or um oh man i don't remember who it was who pointed this out but someone i saw someone online say it's not just that it's a marketing gimmick it's also that this is a way of sort of soft launching it as an enterprise only product that's not available to the general consumer and you could you can tell they're kind of toying with that idea too but it's not really obvious what the plan is yeah because the way they sell this shit is having one million different guys with an ai avatar on twitter posting that this is what changes everything every time they do anything yeah like and i just i've also been playing a fun game which is called go and try and work out what these big integrations do it's not a very okay when i say it's fun i mean it's exhausting because i went on the goldman sachs and anthropic they're automating accounting and compliance roles and uh but don't worry the firm is in the early stages stages of developing agents based on anthropics model that will collapse the amount of time these essential functions take what are those functions who the fuck knows they don't say they just don't say they they like they don't because they probably don't have an answer i want to i want to see those contracts i want to see the actual outcomes but it's i mean this is kind of a vague point to say but i feel kind of insane that we're still talking about it on this level yeah it's still we're still talking about it like we're trying to establish whether the sasquatch exists yeah i mean i just the the amount of vibe-based crap around all of this like to me i mean because of my background as an astrophysicist to me like the the number one thing that is clearly just vibes is this whole push for uh orbital data centers which is just like what they do i feel like we might discuss this before but it's like isn't isn't the amount of power they create like wouldn't they isn't it an insane amount of power for like one megawatt i haven't looked too deep into the tech yet i don't I don't remember how much they like, I don't remember how, like what the, what the numbers are for power generation, but I know that bleeding off heat is a serious problem.

32:38And so, because like space is a vacuum vacuum is an insulator. And so even though it's cold, you can't actually get rid of the excess heat very well. And so you need these giant radiator veins that are bigger than the entire international space station just for one data center. Yeah. And it's just not going to happen. and that's just one issue. You've got the radiation, you've got the fact that you can't upgrade the damn thing without doing a spacewalk. Like, what the hell are they thinking?

33:182%. That is the number of people who take the stairs when there is also an escalator available. I'm Michael Easter And on my podcast, 2%, I break down the science of mental toughness, fitness, and building resilience in our strange modern world. I'll be speaking with writers, researchers, and other health and fitness experts and more to look past the impractical and way too complex pseudoscience that dominates the wellness industry. We really believe that seed oils were inherently inflammatory. We got it wrong. Many of the problems that we are freaked out about in the world are the result of stress.

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34:49so i just looked up real quick projects like star cloud aim for roughly eight kilowatt of power in early prototypes that's not enough uh well just to give you some context uh an mvl 72 of gp200 72 gpus is about 142 kilowatts yeah so that that's probably not gonna work no that's but you know what that's also insane i read about that i read a headline about that i think in the new york times read one in cnbc it it makes me think that if i was an evil person like a like a had a top hat and like a little curly mustache of some sort like i could just get so far just being like yeah you know i i used the model the other day and it actually is fully alive it's fully alive and it told me it's coming for your job specifically and then just go on being verified and like give them the job i'll be like yeah the ai bot came up with this mate they're coming for your wife i would be on the front page of new york times terrifying message from british traveler yeah i would just claim i was from the future like that would be in the kevin roos would be immediately intrigued it's funny i was i was about to say kevin roos would believe you yeah no i think i think he would hit me with a bean can like sila in heroes little reference for those listening remember heroes from decades ago but it's just it's frustrating as well because even though you got the big blinking warning signs and you especially like you've really gone deep into how nutty these billionaires are and how distant the things they're saying are from reality it is ours are still somewhat of a niche belief which is strange still yeah it's like i know i know it's like we're the reality-based community and somehow this is not the dominant narrative or even one of the dominant voices in the narrative instead it's like okay you know there's a few of us and the crazy people are just louder and have way more money how do you see any of this going like just you don't have to come up with a perfect dance here i realized somewhat on the spot but it's like how does this realistically go from here because even putting aside the economics it doesn't seem to be getting better in a way that matters yeah i mean we're in a bubble it's gonna crash at some point right that bubble's gonna pop and at that point i'm not completely sure what's going to happen it's going to depend on you know where we are when the bubble pops what happens um or what's happening when it pops but uh you know i think that we're gonna see a few things right we're gonna see

37:40i i would like to well there's a few different things that can happen yeah sorry i'm i'm stumbling over my words here but like i think okay i think that what the tech industry or the leaders of the tech industry would like to happen at that point is they would like to use the fact that by then you know that they will have and kind of already have um you know eaten all of the new computing hardware and you know created these giant data centers and try to repurpose them for something else because at this point, you know, like it's, it's, you know, hard to get a stick of Ram, uh, if you're not using it for a giant data center.