Radio Better Offline: Allison Morrow, Paris Martineau & Ed Ongweso Jr.

29:22Run a business and not thinking about podcasting? Think again. More Americans listen to podcasts than ad-supported streaming music from Spotify and Pandora. And as the number one podcaster, iHeart's twice as large as the next two combined. So whatever your customers listen to, they'll hear your message. Plus, only iHeart can extend your message to audiences across broadcast radio. Think podcasting can help your business? Think iHeart. Streaming, radio, and podcasting. Call 844-844-iHeart to get started. That's 844-844-iHeart. Jan Marselech was a model of German corporate success. It seemed so damn simple for him.

30:02Also, it turned out, a fraudster. Where does the money come from? That was something that I always was questioning myself. But what if I told you that was the least interesting thing about him? His secret office was less than 500 meters down the road. I often ask myself now, did I know the true Jan at all? Certain things in my life since then have gone terribly wrong. I don't know if they followed me to my home. It looks like the ingredients of a really grand spy story. Because this ties together the Cold War with the new one.

30:40listen to hot money agent of chaos on the iheart radio app apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts and look yeah i feel like rob horning wrote this uh newsletter a few weeks ago that i I think he was honing in on this point that LLMs and these generative AI chatbots and the tools that come out of them are in some ways a distraction because a lot of these firms are pivoting towards how do we create all these products, but also how do we figure out government products that we can provide, right? How do we get into defense contracting? How do we get into arming or integrating AI into arms?

31:25And increasingly, it feels like, you know, yeah, your AI agent is going to be able to not going to be able to order your burrito. But these firms are also, you know, at the same time that they're insisting superhuman intelligence is around the corner and we're going to be able to make your individual lives better, are spending a lot of time and energy on use cases that are actually dangerous. Right. And it should actually be concerning in generating kill lists. Right. Or facial recognition and surveillance. Which is already being around and isn't generative. Yeah, it isn't generative, but the firms that are offering these generative products are spending actual, you know, the stuff that they're actually putting their time and energy into is, you know, these sort of demonstrably destructive tools under the guise in the kind of murky covering of it's all, you know, artificial intelligence, right?

32:13It's all inevitable. It's all coming down the same pipeline. You should accept it. Yeah, and it's, I think the thing is as well, those guys really think that's the next big moneymaker, but I don't think anyone's making any money off of this. No one wants to talk about the money because they're not making any. Like, no one, like, I think I've read the, I've read the earnings calls and not going to listen, of every single company that is selling an AI service at this point. I can't find a single one that wants to commit to a number other than Microsoft, and they'll only talk annualized, which is my favorite one.

32:42ARR. But ARR, but the thing is, ARR traditionally would mean an aggregate rather than just 12 times the last biggest month, which is what they're doing. No, that's the classic setup used to be. I refuse to. My clients ask this to the ground with that one because it's like you can't just fucking make up a number unless you're in AI, then you absolutely can. It's just frustrating because – and the reason I bag on Newton and Roos other than all the others I've listed is the – I feel like in their position and in the position of anyone with any major voice. in the media skepticism isn't like something you should sometimes bring in it's not you don't have to be a drizzled hater like myself but you can be like hey even if this did work which it doesn't how does this possibly last another year and the reaction is no actually it's perfect now and will only be more perfect in the future and i still get emails from people because i said once on an episode if you have a use for ai please email me a regret of mine um every time i get an email like So it's very simple.

33:45I've set up seven or eight hours worth of work to make one prompt work. And sometimes I get something really useful. It saves me like 10 minutes. And you're like, great. And what for? It's like, oh, just some productivity things. What productivity things they stop responding? And it's just, I really am shocked we got this far. I'm going to be honest. At this point, I will never be tired because my soul burns forever. But it's exhausting watching this happen and watching how it's getting crazier. I thought like as things got worse, people would be like, well, CNN stepping up. But it's like watching The Times and some parts of the journal still feed this.

34:25Also, the journal has some incredible critical work on that. It's so bizarre. The whole thing is just so bizarre and has been so bizarre to watch in the tech media. I mean, I think part of it is also just because investors have poured a lot of money into this. And so, of course, they're going to want to back what they have spent hundreds of millions or billions of dollars on. And much of the tech media involves reporting on what those investors are doing, thinking and saying. And whether or not what those people are saying or doing, it's often not based in reality. Yeah, Isaiah is not a member of the tech media.

35:02So I have like kind of a general assignment, business, markets, econ. That's kind of my jam. And when I come when like AI first started becoming the buzzword, like chat GPT had just come out, I was like, oh, this sounds interesting. So I was paying attention like a lot of journalists were. And, you know, like we've hit limitations. And I think part of the reason it's gotten so far is because the narrative is so compelling. Curing cancer. We're going to we're going to end. And it's my favorite one, not my favorite one, silliest one is like, we're going to end hunger. Okay, how? How? Also, the problem of hunger in the world is not that we don't grow enough food.

35:45It is a distribution problem. It is a sociologic, it is a complicated problem. What actually is AI going to do also that you're going to need human beings to distribute it? It just like if you push them one step. If you read the 2027 AI thing, it explains that the AI is going to give the government officials such good advice. They'll be actually really nice and caring to poor people. And what's crazy is here's the thing. And I'm glad you brought that up. One thing I've learned about politics, particularly recently, but in historic means, when the government gets good advice, they take it. Every time.

36:22Every time. Every time they're like, this is economically good, like Medicare for all, which we've, of course, had forever. and came close to numerous times decades ago versus now when we have him. And I think the other funny thing is as well with what you were saying, Alison, is like, yeah, it's going to cure cancer. Okay, can it do that? No. Okay, it's going to cure hunger. Can it do that? No. Okay, easy then. Perhaps it could make me an appointment. Also no. Can you buy something with it? No. Can it take this spreadsheet and move stuff around? Maybe. Sometimes. They can write a robotic sounding script for you to make the appointment yourself.

37:02Wow. You know. I mean, I would even say that, like, I could give the benefit of the doubt to researchers who are really working on the scientific aspects of this. Like, I'm not a scientist. I don't know how to cure cancer. But if you're working with an AI model that can do it, like, God bless. But businesses actually do take money-making advice and money-making technology when it's available. And I think about this all the time with crypto, which is another area I cover a lot. It's like, if it were the miracle technology that everyone or its proponents have said it is, businesses would not hesitate to rip up their infrastructure to make more money.

37:44And like, no one's doing it. And it's like, oh, well, they just haven't, they haven't figured out how to optimize it yet. And it's like, that sounds like a failure of the product and not a failure of people using it. So I get back to the whole like AI cannot fail. It can only be failed. And it's the same with crypto and a lot of other tech where it's just like this is not a product that people are hankering for. And I think part of the notable thing is when we do see examples of large businesses being like, oh, yeah, we're going to change everything about our business and integrate AI. We're going to be an AI first company.

38:16The products that end up coming out of that are there's an AI chat bot in my one medical app now. Cool. That does nothing for me. When I'm trying to search the Amazon comments on a product, suddenly the search box is replaced with an AI chatbot. That's not doing even one-tenth of what you've promised. It's also the same product every fucking time. It's just an AI chatbot that isn't super helpful. And it's great. I remember back in 2015, 2016, I had an AI chatbot company. They took large repositories of data and turned it into a chatbot you'd use. I remember pitching reporters at the time and then being like who fucking cares who gives a shit this will never be like a decade later everyone's like this is literally God I cannot wait to go to the office of a guy who wrote fan fiction about this and talk to him about how scared I am now I can't wait for AGI and I've also said this before but what if we make AGI none of them are going to do it doesn't exist but and it didn't want to do any work that's the other thing like they're not they don't Casey Kagawa friend of the show made this point has made it to me numerous times which is they talk about AGI and Roos did this as well.

39:23Like, AGI this, AGI that. They don't want to define it because if you have to start defining AGI, you have to start talking about things like personage. Like, is this a citizen? Is this, can this thing feel pain? Because surely consciousness could feel pain. Oh, you could take pain out, but how does it have real consciousness? None of the, and hey, how many is one? Is it, if it's, is it one unit? Is it a virtual machine? Like, there are real tangible things and you know they don't want to talk about that shit because you even start answering one of those and you go, oh, right, we're not even slightly close, are we?

39:53We don't even know how the fuck to do a single one of these things ever. And I honestly, the person I feel bad for this as a joke is Blake Lemine, I think his name was, from Google. If he'd have come out like three years later and said that he thought the computer, this guy from Google who thought the Lambda, the AI there. The guy who was like, the chatbot is real and I love it. Yeah, had that come out three years later, he'd be called Kevin Roos because that's exactly what Kevin Roos wrote about being AI. So every is like Bing AI told me to leave my wife and Kevin if you ever fucking hear this man You're worried about me dogging you.

40:25I'm gonna keep going do your fucking job mate anyways it's just insane because I Am a gadget gizmo guy. I love my doodads. I love my shit I really do if this was gonna do something fun I'd have done it like I've really spent time trying and I've talked to people like Simon Wilson Max Wolfe two people who are big LLM heads who are to disagree with me on numerous things but their reaction is kind of, I'm not going to speak exactly for them, but it's basically, it actually does this. You should look at this thing. It does not. This is literally God. But it all just feels unsustainable economically.

41:01But also, I feel like the media is in danger when this falls apart too because the regular people I talk to about ChatGPT, I pretty much hear two use cases. One, Google search isn't working. And two, I need someone to talk to, which is a worrying thing. and I think by the way that use case is just that's a societal thing that's a sign that lack of community lack of friendship but lack of access to mental health services and also could lead to some terrible outcomes but for the most part I don't know why I said for the most part I've yet to meet someone who uses this every day and I've yet to meet someone who really cares about it who like is like if this went tomorrow like if I didn't have my little anchor battery packs I'd scream if I couldn't have permanent power everywhere like if i couldn't like listen to musical day that'd be real might be real sad if i couldn't access chat gpt i would not who cares that's because you haven't tried claude yet i've tried the shit out of claude i've tried claude so much and it's just i don't know i'm i feel like people's response to the media is going to be negative too because there's so many people that boosted it there was a verge story there was a study that came out today i'll link it as well in the notes where it was um a study found that most people do not trust a like regular people do not trust ai but they also don't trust the people that run it and they don't like it and i feel like this is a thing that the media is going to face at some point and ruse this time baby you got away with the crypto thing you're not this time i'm gonna be hitting you with the tv off every day um but it's just i don't think members of the media realize the backlash is coming and when it comes it's going to truly it it is going to lead to an era of cynicism true cynicism in society that's already growing about tech, but specifically I think it will be a negative backlash to the tech media.

42:47And now would be the great time to unwind this versus tripling down on the fan fiction that, and I have been meaning to read this out. My favorite part of this, by far, I say, and of course flawlessly have this ready, why our uncertainty increases substantially beyond 2026. Our forecast from the current day through 2026 is substantially more grounded than what follows. Thanks, motherfucker. Awesome. That's partially because it's nearer. But it's also because the effects of AI on the world really start to compound in 2027. What do you mean? They don't. You're claiming that. And I also think that there's the greatest societal problem that we have too many people who believe the last smart person they listen to.

43:28And I say that as a podcast runner. Like the last investor they talk to. The last expert they talk to is someone from a lab. Yes. Yes. Well, I think that gets to if you just push the proponents, and this is like, I've come into AI skepticism as a true like, I'm interested in this. I'm interested in what you're pitching to the world. And when I hear, and I hear like, CEOs of AI firms get interviewed about this all the time, and they talk about this future where everyone just has a life of leisure. And we're lying around writing poetry and touching grass and like everything's great. No one has to do hard labor anymore.

44:09They have that vision or they have like the, you know, P. Doom of 75 and everything's going to be terrible. and but no one has a really good concept and that's why this is so funny the fan fiction of what happens in 2027 it's like no one has laid out any sense of like how the job creation or destruction will happen like in this piece they say like oh there's going to be more jobs in different areas but some jobs have been lost and it's like how why what jobs they get oddly specific on some things, then the meaningful things, they're like, yep, there'll be jobs. Yeah. And the stock market's just going to go up.

44:47And the number go up all the time, as it is right now as we report. Yeah. Yeah. I believe they say in 2028, Agent 5, which is the super AI, is deployed to the public and begins to transform the economy. Great. People are losing their jobs. But Agent 5 instances in the government are managing the economic transition so adroitly that people are happy to be replaced. I would not. GDP growth is stratospheric. Government tax revenues are growing equally quickly, and Agent 5 advised positions showing uncharacteristic generosity towards the economically dispossessed. You know what this is? We failed to uphold, like, public arts education in America, and a bunch of kids got into coding and know nothing but computers, and so they can't write fan fiction.

45:32Yeah. No one's fucking. Because writing is bad. Not enough people spent time in the minds of fanfiction.net, and it's showing exactly. No one's been shipping anyone. Yeah. Yeah. Like, this is clearly, this is just like someone wanting to have a creative, like, vision of the future. And it's like, it's not interesting or compelling. It's joyless. I mean, that's why they brought him on. That's why they brought Scott Alexander on, because to write this narrative, right? Because that's what he spends a lot of time doing in his blog, is trying to beautify or flesh out why this sort of future is inevitable.

46:02Yeah. You know, why we need to commit to accelerating technological progress as much as possible. and why the real reactionary or anti-progress perspective is caution or concern or skepticism or criticism. If it's not nuanced in a direction that supports progress. I just feel like a lot of the AI safety guys are grifters too. I'm sorry. They love saying alignment. Just say pay me. I know that we should have – I get the occasional email about this being like, you can't hate AI safety. It's important. It is important. Generative AI isn't AI. It's just trying to fucking accept it. If they cared about the safety issues, they'd stop burning down zoos and feeding entire lakes to generate one Basti Garfield, as I love to say.

46:50They would also be thinking about the actual safety issues of what could this generate, which they do. You can't do anarchist cookbook shit. It's about as useful. Phil Broughton, friend of the show, would be very angry for me to bring that up. But the actual safety things of it steals from people, it's destroying the environment, it's unprofitable and unsustainable. These aren't the actual, these are actual safety issues. These are actual problems with this. They don't want to solve those. And indeed, the actual other safety issue would be, hey, we gave a completely unrestrained chatbot to millions of people and now they're talking to it like a therapist.

47:19That's a fucking, that's a safety issue. No, they love that. I do think that one criticism of the AI safety initiatives that is incredibly politically salient and important right now is that they are so hyper focused on the long term thousand hundred years from now future where AI is going to be inside all of us. And we're all going to be, you know, robots controlled by an overload that they are not paying attention to literally any of the harms happening. Or are they deliberately not talking about the harms today? Because then they'd have to do something at work when they get each day. You know, it's like when 972 Mag reported on how Israel was using or trying to integrate artificial intelligence into generating gets kill lists and targets so much so that they started targeting civilians and use that to fine-tune targeting of civilians.

48:04You know, I saw almost nothing in the immediate aftermath of this reporting from the AI safety community. You know, almost no interest in like talking about a very real use case where it's being used to murder as many civilians as possible. Silence. You know, that's a real short-term concern that we should have. But that would require the AI safety people to do something. And what they do is they get into work. They're making a quarter of a million dollars a year. They get into work. They load Slack. They load Twitter. And that's what they do for eight hours. And they occasionally post being like, by 2028, the AI will have fucked my wife.

48:37And everyone's like, goddammit, no. Not our wives. The final frontier. But it is all like they want to talk about 10, 15, 20 years in the future. because if they had to talk about it now, what would they say? Because I could give you AI 2026, which is OpenAI runs into funding issues, can't pay CoreWeave, can't pay Crusoe to build the data centers in Abilene, Texas, which requires Oracle, who have raised debt to fund that, to take a bath on that. Their stock gets here. CoreWeave collapses because most of CoreWeave's revenue is now going to be OpenAI. Anthropic can't raise because the funding climate has got so bad.

49:13OpenAI physically cannot raise in 2026 because SoftBank had to take on murderous debt to even raise one round. And that's just with like one minute. You're going to be excited here. No, no, no. Next newsletter, baby, and probably a two-part episode. But that's the thing. They don't want to do these because they get – okay, they would claim I'd get framed as a skeptic. They also don't want to admit the thing in front of them because the thing in front of them is so egregiously bad. With crypto, it was not that big. Metaverse, it was not that big. I do like that Meta burned like$40 billion, and there's a Yahoo Finance piece about this.

49:43just on mismanagement. It's just like they look sick. It's also sick that they renamed themselves after. It's so good. It's so good. Can't go back. Can't go back. Yeah. Like, they should get metai. They should just change. Oh, they could add an I at the end. They should just add an I at the end. It's just, if anyone talks about what's actually happening today, which is borderline identical what was happening a year ago, let's be honest, it's April 2025. April 2024 was when I put out my first piece being like, hey, this doesn't seem to be doing anything different. and it still doesn't. Even with reasoning, it's just more.

50:16You just wait for Q3, Agent Force is going to come out. Yeah, Agent Zero is going to come out. Actually, the information reported that Salesforce is not having a good time selling Agent Force. You never guess why. Wow. Turns out that it's not that useful due to the problems of generative AI. If only someone had said something, which the information... I've bagged on the information a little bit, but they are actually doing insanely good work. Like Corey Weinberg, Jurosawa, Alisa Gardizi, Paris, of course. but i'm specifically talking about the ai team is that people out so of course and like it's great because we need this reporting for when this just collapsed so that we can say what happened because it's going to if i'm wrong and man would that be embarrassing just gonna be honest like if i'm wrong here i'm gonna i don't look like a huge idiot but if if i'm right here like everyone has over leveraged on one of the dumbest ideas of all time like silly silly it would be like crypto It would be like if everyone said, actually, crypto will replace the US dollar.

51:14And you just saw like the CEO of Shopify being like, okay, I'm going to go buy a beer now using crypto. No, this is going to take me 15 minutes. Sorry. That's just for you to get the money. Actually, it's going to be more like 20. The network's busy. Okay. Well, how's your day? Oh, you use money, huh? Yeah. Okay. Yeah. You should let that guy in front of me. This is going to be a while. But it's what we're doing with AI. It's like, well, AI is changing everything. How? It's a chat. It's a chatbot. What if we have an Uber scenario where maybe they abandoned the dream of like this$3 trillion dressable market that's worldwide.

51:46They abandoned the dream of like being a monopoly in every place and focus on a few markets and some algorithmic price fixing so that they can figure out how to juice fares as much as possible, reduce the wages as much as possible, and finally eke out that profit. What if we see some of these firms, they pull back on the ambition or the scale, but they persist and they sustain themselves because they move on to some smaller vision? I feel like Occam's razor, that's the most likely situation is that AI tools are useful in some way for some slice of people and make a lot of – maybe, let's be optimistic.

52:26It makes a sizable chunk of a lot of people's jobs somewhat easier. like okay was that worth spending billions and billions of dollars and also burning down a bunch of trees probably not has that happened though no I'm just saying that could be I think best case scenario no I'm not saying you're wrong I'm just saying like we haven't even reached that yet because with Uber it was this incredibly lossy and remains quite a lossy business but still delivers people to and from places and objects to and from places yeah you know you don't have to you know as much as I hate them I'll give them credit you know you don't have to less drunk driving you know And some transit in parts of cities where there's not much in the way of public transit.

53:09This is like if Uber, if every ride was$30 ,000 and every car weighed 100 ,000 tons. When you factor in the externalities, like pollution maybe. But that's the crazy thing. I think generative AI is so much worse as well, pollution-wise. But even pulling that back, it's like I think OpenAI just gets wrapped into Copilot. I think that that's literally – they just shut this shit. They absorb Sam Altman into the hive mind. I think my chaos pick for everyone is Satya Nadella is fired and Amy Hood takes over. If that happens, I think it's Prometheus the one who can see stuff. I don't fucking know. I don't read.

53:47No, he gave fire to mortals. Technique. I just speared fire. It's just frustrating. It's frustrating as well because a lot of listeners on the show email me and they took teachers of being like, are they forcing AI in here? A librarian, oh, there's AI being forced there. I mean, the impact on the educational sector, especially with public schools, it's really terrifying, especially because the school districts and schools that are being forced to use this technology, of course, are never the private, wealthy schools. It is the most resource-starved public schools that are going to have budgets for teachers increasingly cut.

54:25Meanwhile, they do another AI contract. And off-source, like, lesson, the sort of things that these companies, the ed tech, AI things, pitch as their use case is lesson planning, writing report cards, basically all the things that a teacher does other than physically being there and teaching, which in some cases the companies do that too. They say instead of teaching, put your kid in front of a laptop and they talk to a chatbot for an hour. And that's the thing. and the school could of course I don't know spend money on something that's already being spent which is teachers have to buy their own fucking supplies all the time teachers have to just spend a bunch of their money on the school and the school doesn't give them money but the school will put money into chat gpt it's just oh they should ban it at universities as well everything I'm hearing there is just like real fucking bad like the I mean the issue is from talking to uh university professors it's like impossible for universities to ban it can you elaborate I haven't talked to I guess professors are – the obvious example is like essays.

55:29Like professors get AI-written essays most of the time and they can't figure out whether they are AI-written or not. They just notice that all of their students seem to suddenly be doing worse in class while having similar output of written assignments. There are very few tools for them to be able to accurately detect this and figure out what to do from it. Meanwhile, I guess getting involved in trying to prosecute someone for doing this within the academic system is a whole other thing. But in K through 12, especially, it's been kind of – it's been especially frustrating to see that some of the biggest pushers of AI end up being teachers themselves because they are overworked, underpaid, have no time to do literally anything.

56:17And they have to write God knows how many lesson plans and IEPs for kids with disabilities. And they can't do it all. So they're like, well, why don't I just plug this into what's essentially a chat GPT wrapper? And that results in worse outcomes for everyone probably. And so I have some personal experience with IEP. I don't think they're doing it there, but they're definitely doing it elsewhere. And if you've heard IEP, that fucking kills me. That's one of the things that these tools often pitch themselves as. I want to strangle someone. I want to put my hands around someone's fucking truck. Can you describe what an IEP is?

56:51I forget what it stands for. I think it's Individual Education Plan. I might be wrong. But that's the vibe. It is generally the plan that's put for a child with special needs. So autism being the most obvious one, it names exactly what it is that they have to do. Like what the teacher's goals will be, like socio. They like legally have to do all the things in that document. And it changes based on the designation they get. And so like it's different if you get there's like an emotional instability one, I believe. And nevertheless, there's like separate ones. And each one is like the goals of where the kid is right now, where the kid will be in the future and so on and so forth.

57:25the idea that someone would use chat gpt and if you listen to this and use chat gpt for one of these i fucking hate your ass so bad i understand you're busy but this is very important uh nevertheless wow how disgraceful as well because it's all this weird resource allocation done by people and i feel like the overarching problem as well as it's the people making these decisions putting this stuff in don't do work it's school administrators that don't teach it's ceos that don't build anything. It's venture capitalists that haven't interacted with the economy or anyone without a Patagonia sweater in decades.

57:58And again, these VCs, they're investing money based on how they used to make money, which was they invest in literally anything and then they sold it to literally anyone. And that hasn't worked for 10 years. Alison, you mentioned the thing 2015-ish. That was when things stopped being fun. That was actually the last time we really saw anything cool. It was around the Apple Watch era. Yeah. And it was the last, really the end of the hype cycles, the successful ones at least. They haven't had one since then. VR, AR, XR, crypto, metaverse, the Indiegogo and Kickstarter era. Sharing economy. Sharing economy.

58:33But these all had the same problem, which was they cost more money than they made. And they weren't scalable. And this is the same problem we've had. What we may be facing is the fact that the tech industry does not know how to make companies anymore. Like that may actually be the problem. Can I add one thing to what you said about people who don't work? I think there are people in Silicon Valley, and I don't, I'm going to get a million emails about this, but there are a lot of Silicon Valley men who are white men who don't really socialize. And I think they are kind of propagating this technology that allows others to kind of not interact.

59:11Like so much of ChatGPT is designed to like subvert human interactions. Like you're not going to go ask your teacher or ask a classmate, hey, how do we figure this out? You're just going to go to the computer. And I think that culturally, like, you know, people who grew up with computers, God bless. But, you know, we need to also value social interaction. And it's interesting that there are these very small group of people often who lack social skills, propagating a technology to make other people not have social skills. I think there's also a class aspect to that. Totally. I don't grow up particularly with food on the table.

59:55But one thing I grew up with was I don't trust any easy fixes. Nothing is ever that easy. is something that I kind of a, if something seems too good to be true, too accessible, there's usually something you're missing about the incentives or the actual output. So no, I wouldn't trust a computer to tell me how to fix something because I don't fucking like, you made that up. I like, it isn't this easy. There's, there's gotta be a problem. The problem is hallucinations.

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1:01:52Run a business and not thinking about podcasting? Think again. More Americans listen to podcasts than ad-supported streaming music from Spotify and Pandora. And as the number one podcaster, iHeart's twice as large as the next two combined. So whatever your customers listen to, they'll hear your message. Plus, only iHeart can extend your message to audiences across broadcast radio. Think podcasting can help your business? Think iHeart. Streaming, radio, and podcasting. Call 844-844-iHeart to get started. That's 844-844-iHeart. Jan Marseleck was a model of German corporate success. It seemed so damn simple for him.

1:02:32Also, it turned out, a fraudster. Where does the money come from? That was something that I always was questioning myself. But what if I told you that was the least interesting thing about him? His secret office was less than 500 metres down the road. I often ask myself now, did I know the true Jan at all? Certain things in my life since then have gone terribly wrong. I don't know if they followed me to my home. It looks like the ingredients of a really grand spy story. Because this ties together the Cold War with the new one.

1:03:10Listen to Hot Money, Agent of Chaos on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:03:26And we're back. So we didn't really lead into that ad break, but you're going to just have to like it. I'm sure all of you are going to send me little emails, little emails about the ads that you love. Well, I've got to pay for my Diet Coke somehow. So back to this larger point around ChatGPT and why people use it and how people use it. I think another thing that just occurred to me is, have you ever noticed that Sam Altman can't tell you how it works and what it does? You ever noticed that any of these people will tell you what it does? I've read everything Sam Altman said at this point. I've listened to hours of podcasts.

1:03:57He's quite a boring twerp. but on top of that for all this yapping and yammering him and wario amaday don't seem to be able to say out loud what the fucking thing does and that's because i don't think that they use it either like i genuinely i'm beginning to wonder if any of the people injecting ai sure sam altman and dario probably use it i'm not saying it fully but like these aren't people the next person that meets sam altman should just be like hey how often do you use chat gpt gets back to that it reminds me the remote work thing all these ceos saying guys should come back to the office how often you in the office exactly and i think that this is just a giant revelation of like how many people don't actually interact with their businesses that don't interact with other people that don't really know how anything works but they are the ones making the money in power decisions it's fucking crazy to me and i don't and i i don't know how this shakes out it's not going to be an autonomous agent doing whatever also okay that just occurred to me as well how the fuck do these people not think these agents come for them first if the agi was doing this and they read this and be like these people fucking they worked it all out i need to kill them first well i mean that kind of gets back to what you're saying where it's like you know if we entertain the fan fiction for a little bit what is the frame of mind for these agents if they're autonomous or not how are we thinking of them are we thinking about like their persons or if they're uh you you know, lobotomized in some way.

1:05:24Do they have opinions? You know, and I think really it just gets back to like, you know, part of the old hunt for like, you know, a nice, polite slave, you know? Yeah. How do we figure out how to reify that relationship? Because it was quite profitable at the turn of like industrial capitalism. And, you know, I think, you know, it's not a coincidence that a good chunk of our tech visions come to us from reactionaries who think that the problem with capitalism, the problem with tech development is that a lot of these empathetic, egalitarian reforms get in the way of profit making. I think similarly, the hunt for automatons for certain algorithmic systems is searching for a way to figure out how do we replicate human labor without the limitations on extracting and pushing and coercing as much as possible with your agent or something else.

1:06:16And the thing is, yeah, sure, the idea of an autonomous AI system would be really useful. Well, I'm sure it could do stuff. That sounds great. There are massive, as you've mentioned, like sociological problems. Like, do these things feel pain? If so, how do I create? Anyway, but in all seriousness, like, sure, an autonomous thing that could do all this thing would be useful. They don't seem to even speak to that. It's just like, and then the AI will make good decisions. And then the decisions will be even better. Then agent seven comes out and you thought agent six was good. It's like they don't even speak to how we're going to get to the point where agent one knows truth from falsehood.

1:06:50Well, that's inevitable. Of course. Yeah. You know, we just need to give it all of our data and everything that we've paid money for required other people to pay money for. And then it will finally be perfect. And it doesn't even make profit of any kind. That's the other thing. It's like people saying it makes profit. It is the profit seeking. Is it profit seeking? it doesn't seem like we've sought much profit or any. That's also, I think, a good point of comparison to what you were talking about earlier, Ed, with the comparison to Uber and Lyft. These companies that achieved massive scale and popularity by making their products purposefully unprofitable, by charging you$5 for a 30-minute Uber across town so that you're like, yeah, this is going to be part of my daily routine.

1:07:36And the only way they've been able to squeeze out a little bit of profit right now is by hiking those prices up, but trying to balance it to where they don't hike it up so much that people don't use it anymore. And AI is at the point where like, for these agents, I think some of the costs are something like thousands of dollars a month. But they don't exist. And they don't work already. And it's like, you're still not making money by charging people that much money to use it. What is the use case one where this even works? And if it somehow did manage to work, how much is that going to cost? Who is going to be paying$20 ,000 a month for one of these things?

1:08:12And how much of that is dependent on what is clearly nakedly subsidized compute prices? How much of this is because Microsoft's not making a profit on a zero compute. OpenAI isn't making. Anthropic isn't. What happens if they need to? What if they need to? They're going to check. That's the subprime AI crisis from last year. It's just – it's – Well, that's when you get the venture capitalists insisting that that's why we need to do this AI CapEx rollout because if we build it out like infrastructure, then we can actually lower the compute prices and not subsidize it anymore. Yeah, that's a thing.

1:08:44But that's the other thing. So the information reported, OpenAI says that by 2030 they'll be profitable. How? Stargate. And you may think, what does that mean? And the answer is Stargate has data centers. Now, I just have one little question. This isn't a knock on the information. They're reporting what they've been told, which is fine. A little question with OpenAI, though. How? How does more equal less cost? Because this thing doesn't scale. They lose money on every prompt. It doesn't feel like they'll make any money. In fact, they won't make any money. They'll just have more of it. And also there's the other thing of data centers are not fucking weeds.

1:09:20They don't grow in six weeks. They take three to six years to be fully done. If Stargate is done by next year, I will fucking barbecue up my Padre's hat and eat it live on stream. That's if they're fucking alive next year. also the other thing is getting back to 2027 as well year 2026 2027 is going to be real important for everything 2027 or 2026 is when wario amaday says that anthropic will be profitable that's also when the stargate data center project will be done in 2026 i think that they may have all just chosen the same year because it sounded good and they're going to get in real trouble next year when it arrives and they're nowhere near close i can't wait until all of those companies announce that because of the tariffs that they have to delay their timeline and it's like completely out of their hands.

1:10:09But no, the tariffs, you understand the tariffs. I got a full roasted pig. I'm going to be tailgating Microsoft earnings April 23rd. Cannot wait. Yeah, you should go to like a data center. Have a marching band on the end of severance. Yeah, but that's the thing. I actually agree. I think that there's going to be difficult choices. Sadly, there's only really two. One CapEx reduction, two layoffs. Or both. Because they have proven willingness to lay off to fund their CapEx. But at this point, people are asking to what end? Like, why are we doing this? It just feels like the collapse of any good or bad romantic relationship, where just one party's doing shit that they think works from years ago, and the other party is just deeply unhappy and then disappears one day.

1:11:00And the other party being... I watched an episode of Lost last night and it just happened. Lost is a far more logical show than any of this AI bullshit. Let's not get that crazy. No, it's a bad show. No, I wouldn't say that either. Talking about something that's very long, very expensive and never had a plan but everyone talks about like it was good despite never proving it, Lost. Yeah, sorry. I really do have some feelings on that. You're going to get some emails. I'm sure. You're getting an email from me. Yeah. He is texting me. It is writing an email. It is just sending me the. Very quiet. It is just sending me the.

1:11:36Vibrating. Wiltapistole emotion. Emoji like a hundred times. Yeah. Yeah. It's. I think it's just. I can't wait to see how people react to this stuff as well. When this. Because I obviously will look very silly if these companies stay alive and somehow make AGI. AGI is killing me first. Like the Gravedigger AI truck is going to run me over outside my house. It's going to be great. but i can't wait to see how people explain this i can't wait to see what the it's like are we never said the tariffs maybe right and i talked to an analyst just last week who's like a bullish ai tech investor and he said he said already you're seeing investment pull back because of expectations in the market uh that there was these stocks were overbought in the first place and now there's all this other turmoil, external macro elements that are going to kind of take the jargon of like the froth out of the market.

1:12:33It's all gonna deflate a little bit. And so I was asking him like, is the AI bubble popping? And he says, no, but tariffs are definitely like deflating it and delaying whatever progress that we are gonna be promised from these companies is gonna be delayed. Even if it was gonna be delayed, they were gonna find other reasons. This is a convenient macro kind of excuse to just say like, oh, well, we need we didn't have enough chips. We didn't have enough investing. We didn't have enough compute. You know, be patient with us. We're going to have the revolution is coming. What's great as well, talking of my favorite Wall Street analyst, Jim Cramer of CNBC.

1:13:10So Corweave's IPO went out. I just need to mention we are definitely in the hype cycle because Jim Cramer said that he would sue an analyst, DA Davidson, on behalf of NVIDIA for claiming that they were a lazy Susan. As in basically what the argument is is that NVIDIA funded CoreWeave. So the CoreWeave would buy GPUs. And at that point, CoreWeave would then take out loans on those GPUs for CapEx reasons, CapEx including buying GPUs. so very clearly and also you attack gill over at da davidson you and me kramer in the ring but it's we know we're in the crazy time when you've got like a tv show host being like i'm gonna sue you because you don't like my stocks i think that like we're going to see like a historic washout of people and the way to change things is this time we need to make fun of them i think we need to be like actively we don't need to be mean that's my job we can be like to your point at your article, Alison, it's like, say like, hey, look, no, what you are saying is not even rational or even connected to reality.

1:14:13This is not doing the right things. Apple intelligence is like the greatest anti-AI radicalization ever. I actually think it's so bad. It's so fucking bad. And I, before it even came out, I like downloaded the beta. I was like, I'm going to test this out because, you know, I talk about this thing on my podcast sometimes and it's so bad. It's so bad. It turns it off for most things, but I have it on for a couple of social networks. And I mean, I guess with the most recent update, it got marginally better, but it still constantly tells me, so-and-so replied to your blue sky skeet. I check. They didn't.

1:14:48That person didn't even like the skeet. I don't know where that name came from. And this happens like every other day. It's just completely wrong. I'm like, how? My favorite is the summary text for Uber, where it's like several cars headed to your location. we're gonna take you out Kalanick Kalanick mode activate it no it's it's great as well because I usually don't buy into the Steve Jobs would burst from his grave thing I actually think numerous choices Tim Cook has made have been way smarter than how Jobs would have done this is actually like he's gonna burst out of the ground thriller style actually did zombies pop out anyway because it's nakedly bad close it's not a great reference but it's nakedly bad like it sucks and I've never I've People in my life who are non-techie will constantly be like, hey, what is Apple intelligence?

1:15:38Am I missing something? I'm like, no, it's actually as bad as you think. And it's also small other things beyond just the notification summaries. The thing that every time I highlight a word and I'm trying to – sometimes I might want to use fine definition or any of the things that come up. I have to scroll by like seven different new options under the like right click or double click thing. And if you hit writing tools, it opens up a screen-wide thing. It opens up a thing and I'm like, who has ever, who is trying to use this to rewrite a text to their group chat? Who is this for? I feel like Apple, to its credit, is recognizing its mistake and it's clawing it back and like delaying Siri indefinitely.

1:16:22I mean. I don't know if I agree on that one. That's fair. Because the thing they're delaying is the thing that everyone wanted. I think they can't make it work. Because the thing they're delaying is the contextually aware Siri, right? Right. Yes. They're quote unquote delaying it. It doesn't exist. It never existed. We'll see. Apple's washed. You think Apple's washed? No, I mean, but that's the thing. It's the most brand conscious company on the planet. And I wrote like when they did their June revelation of the Siri AI is going to come out and they said it was going to come out in the fall and then it was coming out in the spring and now it's not coming out ever, question mark.

1:17:00But throughout the whole like two hour presentation, the letters AI were never spoken. Artificial was never spoken. It was Apple intelligence. We're doing this. We're doing our own thing. It's not, you know, because they already understood that when you say something is like that looks like it was generated by AI, you're saying it looks like shit, you know. And the suggestions are also really bad, too. I've had like over the last few weeks, a few people give me some bad news from their lives. And the responses it gives are really funny. Oh, no. It'd be like someone telling me something bad happened.

1:17:32It's like, oh, or like I'm like, what was the worst one I had? It was like, that sounds difficult. And it's like a paragraph long thing about like a family thing they had. Like, and it's not even like got like any juice to it. Like, I didn't read too long. Those would be funny suggestions. But, like, it can't even, it's proof that I think that these large language models don't actually, well, they don't understand anything, they don't know anything, they're not conscious, but it's like, they're really bad at understanding words. Like, people are like, oh, they make some mistakes. They're bad at basic contextual stuff.

1:18:07And we had Victoria Song from The Virgin the other day, and she was talking about high context and low context languages. And I said, I can only speak English. I imagine not being able to read or speak in any others that it really fumbles those. And if you're a listener and you want to email me anything about this research, how the fuck does this even scale if it can't? Oh, we're replacing translators. Great, you're replacing translators with things that sometimes translate, right? Sometimes? Sometimes. Sometimes. It just feels, also inherently, like that feels like an actual alignment problem, by the way.

1:18:41That right there, that feels like an actual safety problem. Like, hey, if we're relying on something to translate and it translates words wrong and you know, especially in other languages, subtle differences can change everything. Maybe that's dangerous. No, no, no. We got the computer wake up in like two weeks and then it's going to be angry. And that's the other thing. We're going to make AGI and we think it's not going to be pissed off at us. I don't mean Rococo's modern basilisk or whatever. I mean, just like if it wakes up and looks at the world and goes, these fucking morons. You need to watch Person of Interest if you haven't.

1:19:14One of the best shows actually on AGI. Genuinely, you need to watch Person of Interest because you will see how that could happen when you allow a quote-unquote perfect computer to make our decisions. Also, when has a computer been particularly good at decision-making? I don't know. I feel like so much of this revolution, quote-unquote, is based on just the assumption that the computer makes great decisions and it oftentimes doesn't. No, it often does not. Why would I think that the same search function in Apple that cannot find a document that I know what the name is and I'm searching for it, why would I think that that same computer is going to be able to make wise decisions about my life, finance, and personal relationships?

1:19:57Because that's Apple and this is AI. Oh, that's true. I'll show myself out. I don't know how much is AI versus just like a good translation app. Like I genuinely don't know like how Google does it. Because AI is such a squishy term that we really don't like in some way, like, I guess AI could be expanded to include a lot of modern computing. Like I can see travel and like emergency situations where you need where like a good AI translator would be like a real lifesaver. Just as a small aside, I was just in Mexico and my stepkids were using Google Translate and we're like kind of remembering Spanish and, you know, blah, blah, blah.

1:20:41go into a coffee shop and I wanted to order a flat white. And so I used Google Translate to say, like, how would you order a flat white in Spanish? And it said to order a blanco plano, which means flat white. But, like, across Mexico City there are wonderful coffee shops. And you know what they call them? Flat whites. Because isn't it an Australian coffee or something like that? I learned that very quickly with the help of Reddit because I went to the barista and ordered a blanco plano and they were like, who are you? You crazy gringo cat. Sorry, I speak English. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, like, it's, the functionality is very limited on those things.

1:21:22And it's just like, also, it gets back to like, if it's 100 % reliable, it's great. If it's 98 % reliable, it sucks. And just as an aside, did any of you hear about, like, the latest, like, quasi-fraudulent thing with Joni Ive that's happening? I just saw the headline. So Sam Altman and Joni Ive founded a hardware startup last year that has built nothing. There is a thing they claim there's a phone without a screen. And OpenAI, a company run by Sam Altman, owned principally by Sam Altman and Microsoft, is going to buy for half a billion dollars this company that has built nothing, co-founded by Sam Altman.

1:22:03Sick. I feel like there should be one law against this but it's just like what have they been doing? and this is just kind of cliche to say quote the big short but a big part of the beginning of that movie is talking about the increase in fraud and scams and it really feels like we're getting there and RIP to the humane pimp by the way rest in peace you won't be missed motherfuckers two management consultants both like indignity eat shit Jesse Lou Rabbit R1, you're next, motherfucker. When your shits are gone, I'll be honking and laughing. Your customers should sue you. The description, so my colleagues at the Information Report of this journey, I have Sam Altman news, and the description for the device really makes me trickle.

1:22:49Designs for the AI device are still early and haven't been finalized, the people said. Potential designs include a quote-unquote phone without a screen and AI-enabled household devices. Because others close to the project are adamant that it is, quote, not a phone, end quote. And they've discussed spending upwards of$500 million on this company. This is like a bad philosophy class where it's like, what is a phone that's not a phone? Semiotics for beginners. Jesus fucking Christ. Oh, my God. Amazing. Like, that's the thing as well. This feels like a thing the tech media needs to be on as well. Just someone needs to say, I'll be saying it.

1:23:27like this is bordering on fraud like it seems like it must be legal because otherwise there would be some sort of authority right you can't do anything illegal without anything happening but it's like this is one of the most egregious fucking things i've ever seen this is a guy handing himself money one hand this is should be fraud like this is like how is this ethical and everyone's just like oh yeah you know this kevin roose maybe you should get on this shit Find out what the phone that isn't the phone is. What the fuck? And also household appliances with AI. Maybe like something with the screen and the speaker that you could say like a word to it and it would wake up and play music.

1:24:06Like a Roomba. Yeah. A Roomba with AI. Just declared bankruptcy. DJ Roomba. Put it on the blockchain. Roomba dead? Why Roomba dead? I think they did. I don't know actually. I remember I read the headline in the last few weeks. It was acquired by Amazon, but I think the deal fell through under Lena Kahn's FTC, I'd assume. Sick. And then... Got him. Also, one quick note on the Jody Ives-Sam Altman thing. I guess it's notable that Altman has been working closely with the product, but is not a co-founder. And whether he has an economic stake in the hardware project is unclear. Yeah. You know, he just seems to be working closely with it.

1:24:46He just hangs out. He's just hanging out there. taking a salary in an equity position. Whoa. I do think it's very interesting, all of these different AI device startups that have popped up in the last couple of years. And my question for them is always just like, to what end? Like people didn't like Amazon Alexa. And it also lost a shit ton of money. Yeah. And Amazon's still trying to make it work. Siri's never been super popular. And I just don't, like one of my co-hosts on the podcast, I run intelligent machines is obsessed with all these devices just because he's like one of those tech guys Leo yes he's and we love to make fun of him for it we love him but he his latest device is this thing called a B we just had Victoria Song on talking about this the thing that records everything it records everything all the time and then makes puts that up in the cloud and then I guess doesn't store the full transcripts but does store a little AI generated description of everything you did and whoever you talked to that day and there's no way I mean he's in Leo's in California which is not a one-party recording yeah you gotta get consent from everybody to record and the bee is not doing that but it's just baffling to me because I'm just like I guess he's like well it could be nice to have record of all of my days all the time and I'm like I guess but to what end just record it Just record it.

1:26:13Write it down. Yeah, write a diary. There's literally a Black Mirror episode about that. I believe it's the first episode of Black Mirror. Everyone has like a recording device. And then it does, when you were talking about this on the show, I was listening thinking like in this Black Mirror thing, it reminded me that like when Facebook started having like all your photos collected under your photos and like how we started reliving so many experiences online. It's never been pleasant. You can scroll back and look at how happy you were six years ago. Not a problem. It creates this cycle. Imagine if every interaction, every romantic interaction, every sad interaction, everything you could replay back to yourself.

1:26:59It sounds like a nightmare to me. I do think it's also just a night like humans. We're not built socially to exist in a world where every interaction is recorded and searchable with everyone forever. Like you would never have a single friend. Romantic relationships would dissolve. Yes. Eternal sunshine of the spotless mind. Like. Yes. But even then, like memory is vastly different to the experience of collecting it. Like just existing. Like we are brain slot. I don't know. My brain just goes everywhere. but like compared to memory which can be oddly crystalline and wrong you can just remember something you can remember a subtle detail wrong or you can just fill in the gaps memory sucks also doesn't having like a device that constantly records everything erode at the impulse or maybe the drive to be as present you know because you're like well it's got my back to it but this is also got huge privacy implications where suddenly the cops could just be like yeah we're just gonna take a recording we're just gonna subpoena everybody who was in this area's B device and then suddenly get a recording of everyone's days ever that just happened to be in this place because we think a crime could have happened there.

1:28:06But I think that there's an overarching thing to everything we're talking about which is these are products made by people that haven't made anything useful in a while and everything is being funded based on what used to work. What used to work was you make a thing, people buy it and then you sell it to someone else or take it public. This only worked until about 2015. It's not just a zero interest three era thing. It's we have increasingly taken away the creation of anything valuable in tech from people who experience real life like our biggest ceos are sam altman wario amadei sundar pishai mba former mckinsey satan adele of mba i mean tim cook mba like these are all people that don't really interact with people anymore and the problems the people in power are not engineers they're not even startup founders anymore they're fucking business people making things that they think they could sell things that could grow the right economy of course and we're at the kind of the pornographic point where it's like a guy being like what could a what does ai do you can just throw a bunch of data and give you insights well what if we just collect a date on everything happening around us ever that would be good then you could reflect on things that's what people do right and i actually genuinely think there is only one question to ask the b found on that are you wearing one of these now and how often do you use this because i if they use it all the time i actually kind of respect them i guarantee they don't i guarantee they don't and they'll they'll probably say something around a lot of privileged information as opposed to everyone else who's not important and this fucking joanie oh it's going to be a phone without without a screen what can you do with it i don't know i haven't thought that far ahead i only get paid 15 million dollars a year to do this the question is also who wants a phone without a screen the screen's the best part i love the screen i love to hate the screen but they don't talk to anyone they don't have human experience they don't have friends that like they have friends who are all like have 50 million dollars in the bank account at any time they just like exist in a different difficulty level they're all going up very easy they don't really have like predators of any kind they don't really have experiences so they're what they experience in life is when you have to work out what you enjoy and because they enjoy nothing all they can do is come up with ideas that's why the rabbit r1 oh what do people do uh order mcdonald's can it do it not really but it also could take a photo of something it could be pixelated that could kind of order an uber through it maybe what was great was the rabbit launch the rabbit launch and he tried to order mcdonald's live and it just didn't work it took like five minutes to fail it was and that's the thing like i feel like when this hype cycle ends the tech media needs to just be aggressively like hey look fool me thrice shame on me like like maybe maybe next time around we can ask the questions i was asking in 2021 where it's like what does this do who is it for and if anyone says it could address millions of people It's like, have you talked to one of them, motherfucker?

1:31:04One of them. I think we can wrap it up there, though. Allison, where can people find you? You can find me at CNN.com slash Nightcap. I write the CNN Business Nightcap. It's in your inbox four nights a week. Hell yeah. Ed? I write a newsletter on Substack, the Tech Bubble. I co-host a podcast, This Machine Kills, with Jathan Sadowski. And I'm on Twitter at BigBlackJacobin. You're on Blue Sky, too, right? Yeah, bluesky at edwardonguessojr.com. You can read my work at The Information. I also host a podcast called Intelligent Machines. And you can find me on Twitter at Paris Martineau or on bluesky at paris.nyc.

1:31:46And you can find me at edzitron.com on bluesky. Google, who destroyed Google search? Click the first link. It's me. I destroyed Google search along with Papagopragabam. Fuck you, dude. if you want to support this podcast you should go to the webbies i will be putting the link in there i need your help i've never won an award in my life i am it's the best episode sorry best business podcast episode if we are winning right now please help me please help me win this and if i need to incentivize you further we are beating scott galloway if you want to defeat scott galloway you need to vote on this thank you so much for listening everyone

1:32:29Thank you for listening to Better Offline. The editor and composer of the Better Offline theme song is Matt Ossowski. You can check out more of his music and audio projects at mattosowski.com. M-A-T-T-O-S-O-W-S-K-I.com. You can email me at ez at betteroffline.com or visit betteroffline.com to find more podcast links and, of course, my newsletter. I also really recommend you go to chat.wheresyoured.at to visit the Discord and go to r slash betteroffline to check out our Reddit. Thank you so much for listening. Better Offline is a production of Cool Zone Media. For more from Cool Zone Media, visit our website, coolzonemedia.com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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