Radio Better Offline: Brian Koppelman, Cherlynn Low & Mike Drucker

24:25I remember reading that book like the day it came out, and it really did freak me out about what was possible. Now, we're not even there yet, right? It even isn't where that version of AI was. But Yudkowsky's... Yudkowsky, yeah. Yudkowsky, sorry. So I find him quite distasteful. But on top of that, he's a fucking AGI doomer. And he's just, yeah, sure, if a frog had wings, it could fly. it's like yeah if the computer wakes up and does this this could be scary he's one of the few people that seems to actually think about what agi could do but also we're so far more off from it that i can't see him as anything but a grifter because all he is doing is grift it's just he's been on it long before there was he was on it as a non-profit no he non-profit grifts exist i mean you're talking about what i've written you think i don't know non-profit What the fuck's the matter with you?

25:14You were looking at yourself. I'm in my domain next to you. Brian won. Yeah. But he's, I have a different view. Now, I'm not saying all his opinions are correct. What I'm saying is that that's somebody who flagged a bunch of these potential issues a long time ago. And, of course, it shouldn't. I mean, it's horrible that these people in charge are so willing to slough off human beings. And so excited. Yeah. The moment they think there's this much of an edge, but also because of what I study in life, I can't be so – we've all of us who write about this stuff in fiction, right? You do it because, okay, you guys have to report on something.

25:53You have to – I can take sort of like my partner and I can take what's in there and try to dramatize what might happen. Yeah. And always would try to point out exactly that these motherfuckers will do all this shit. It's not surprising to me. it's horrific but not surprising.

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29:43What bothers me as well with it, and I think you're completely right. And also, like, I'm not completely saying everything you're saying is wrong. Like, you actually have well read on this, which is nice, because a lot of people who mention the AGI stuff don't read anything. um but i think the thing is as well is so much about this ai agi thing is not about what it can actually do yeah the best fiction about agi girlfriend sarah showed me the kill switch x-files episode fantastic agi episode it's scary because it's not about the people making it it's about the computer itself and the intention spilling into it a lot of what the agi discussion now is and it will automate jobs and that's the last time i'm gonna think about it before i say here's anthropic kevin rose uh and it's and i think what it is is there are discussions to be had around what this stuff could do if ai could do the things that they're saying it could do if it could replace jobs it would be doing it but also it would actually require a change in society it's almost as if they're like they want all of the profits from all of the exposure and the ability to lay people off without actually doing anything to earn it and it comes back to what you about yeah the people running this aren't even trying to build ai they're not mark zuckerberg's building a manhattan-sized data center to build super intelligence i wonder though when you say and you guys all speak to this i wonder when you when when um when you talk about that google could have done this or should have done this and then it's a great point that you made about um that it is the way that it communicates because what i wonder is you're all expert you're all native early adopters native to not only the internet but native to tech and so sure you could you have used altavista to do oh yeah jeeves for fuck's sake right it's a baby but i'm saying you could have used all that but for generations of people who aren't literate in the millions billions of people exactly that even if that was possible through google image search but you ever try google image Watch people try to do a Google image searching.

31:44No, I agree. I'm thinking this is making it for people friendly to them, as you said. Easy for them. And I wonder if that's the - That's exactly what I'm saying. That's why people like ChatGPT. It's not because it's this amazing product. It's because it does what people go to Google - That's hard. But communicating well in an inviting, seductive way is very challenging. Yes. Yeah. So for tech to be able to do that to regular people is the amazing thing. It's almost like you're taking that for granted. Google invented this tech. The 2017 Attention Is All You Need paper was eight Google scientists.

32:21I just looked this up. I thought it was several. But it's like Noam Shazir. They ended up paying like$2 billion for character A just to bring him back. Google had this technology. And had this movement just been, we're going to make inference of meaning better, exactly what you're talking about, it would not be this big story. the thing is they need it to be what you were describing our use cases good bad whatever they are things that people use it for the actual things they're describing on i as a phd level intelligence it's going to solve physics it's like no it's not but if they say what if google search worked they can't make a trillion dollar they can't be like this is going to be everything we're going to build data centers it's just because what you're describing brian is the most evil thing in the world.

33:04To go back to Mike Drucker. Yeah. You really should be looking at it. Okay, let's move on. Because I think what, I think in all these things, what I've learned, just being curious, is to look at the incentives. Yes, that's what I've been saying. And Google was de-incentivized, disincentivized to make search work for the user. Yeah. Because of the profit agenda, right? You said, oh, these things should make a fucking profit. But here's the thing. In a weird way, them not making a profit is better for the users. Yes. And Google wasn't, but I'm sure it's all in the Google paper that nobody's fucking reading except you.

33:40I'm talking about the 1994 one. I'm talking about for the user. I'm trying to, you're raising these amazing questions, but if I try to think about how to answer them, it's that these companies are like in the early days of social media and all this stuff. In the beginning, they try to super serve the user to get you addicted to it so that then they can, But the incentive structure is what you got to look at. And obviously, Microsoft's incentive structure has been locked in for a very long time. And that is for the people who have the most stock in Microsoft to make the most money. That's the incentive structure.

34:11Google, too, to an extent. And that's why they had that stuff for that long. But they never, because they never found a way to integrate it into all the different parts of its businesses that matter. The ads part, the search parts. It's also their monopoly. And they have a monopoly. They have no reason to be. But I don't know if you remember this Google I.O. 2017, 2018, even 2019, when they first showed Kitchen Sink, which was their version of ChatGPT, but it wasn't as conversational. It was, you can ask this app to come up with ways to learn about a new hobby or to plan a thing for you. Before ChatGPT even was known widely to everyone, I think it was, OpenAI wasn't really even a thing.

34:43And it just wasn't a chat interface. And I think to Brian's point, the incentive that ChatGPT has brought to people and to my parents, who by the way, discovered ChatGPT last year, very annoying to me, but it's like, it's so much easier. it brings them into technology in a way that technology used to be kind of looking down on people for not knowing things. And you do away with that with the chatbot. My parents not only feel so hip now, which, sorry, mom and dad, you're not. But also, there's people who seek comfort in the companionship brought on by AI chatbots. They're just differently hip. They are amazingly hip.

35:18They're differently hip. They dance at their age, and I love that. That's actually lovely. But the thing is, if you look at the use of Gen.AI from the last, And I think I talked about this on that Kevin Ruse episode. But the use of AI services has changed, right? It used to be like very interest-based and very search-based, but it's now companionship-based as the top few users. And that's why people are drawn to it. And I think that one last point that came up really when I was listening to you talk, Ed, is that the incentive for them to push towards like, yes, let's go towards AGI. It's not just like laying off people.

35:52It's also who can get there first. It's the race of like the tech AI ego thing, the tech CEO ego thing. And then from the ego standpoint, then they push down to profit. But so many businesses are already sort of the industries are already acting in bad faith. Oh, yes. Yeah. Like, okay, look at the – here's – I'll give you not a – like a real industry that I think will be transformed by it. And I think that's not a bad thing is like money management. money management which is a billions of generative ai ai already can replace between yeah ai though but well you can you can do that but what i'm saying no no i'm saying that whole business that whole business is about a front thing money management i'm not talking about the high net worth i'm saying in general people who use um for the retirement accounts money managers well front all that stuff uh but within those companies they're they're they're front-facing language of humans who are just trying to keep you invested oh they don't know that stuff they are not offering value really and they're taking this big percentage from regular uh people trying to save for their retirement and they're bleeding off money and in the end they're going i was listening to like i'm smiling because you were right already this was the 2015 through 2020 uh well no i know that all that stuff but i'm talking about even in now like big banks, like the big banks.

37:17I'm not talking about their AI front. I'm saying that I was listening to a talk given by Josh Brown and one of his partners I think. And he was talking about how essentially all of the back end of all that stuff, meaning you might still have a person talking to the user, but everything else is going to be done by AI. I just... I think it was Michael Batnick from his company who was talking about that. Because here's the thing with that is, from my knowledge of basically financial regulation, they don't want an LLM touching much of this. There's a lot of stuff within financial research happening now with generative AI.

37:59There's a ton of companies doing like insanely high compute burn to do these massive kind of like evaluations of stuff. I don't know if anyone wants to touch the money with LLMs and they've actually been quite resistant to it. partly because they don't know how they work. Like they truly don't know. Oh, I know the black box thing. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And so it's like a lot of these things also, when are they going to happen though? Because they've been saying this for two years. Do you think there's a scenario where this goes away? I don't think it goes. I wouldn't love it to, but I think we're past that point.

38:32No, no, no, no. You think it's going to reveal itself as being fraudulent for what it reports to be? No, no. i think you're going to see what call in my shop so i believe that open ai will as an ongoing concern eventually go into nothingness matt hughes my editor believes they'll become a patent shot i actually think it's an amazing thing i think that what we experience of large language models will vastly pull back i think there will be rate limits what do you mean pull back what do you mean there'll be rate limits on gpt people are going to be horrifyingly sad because those companions are going to go away they're not going to go away they're just going to be much much much more limited and i think that everything we see today the kind of and you look in any of the reds behind any of the serious like gpts they're all kind of saying like yeah we know that the abundance the free ride is over so no it's not going away but you're not going to hear about it constantly and everything you use today is going to be so severely rate limited or dead those companies that are charging for generative ai things beneath the surface all of the api rates behind these companies.

39:34So the things that you plug in to run the models are vastly subsidized by big tech and by the companies. So AltaVista goes away but Google takes over. Well, Google Gemini exists but the Gemini requests perhaps don't hit the LLM as much. They have... I'm using it as a parallel. Yeah, yeah. I'm saying the parallel, right? You're kind of saying there's consolidation that's going to happen. But it won't be this big thing where you hear about it all the time. I think you were going to... Of course, it'll just be the back end of lots of stuff. It will be... Oh, no. It'll just be something that sits there.

40:01No, it's a smaller scale, right? It's also not good as a back end. Large language models are not good back end. I understand. They're good at talking to you. They're good at talking. They can divine stuff as well. One thing we're kind of circling on the consumer level that we're not talking about is it's still a novelty. Now, I think it's going to continue to be used. I do think that people are going to continue to make lists and scheduling and summarize my thing or like, you know, what's a good vacation. And there are on-device models that are able to do that. Right. I just think that right now it's such a big deal that everyone's using it because it's cool.

40:32because your parents hear about it, because you're told you should use it for work. And I do think that it'll stick around. I do think there'll be a contraction in the sense that it'll be a cool thing, but I think in 15 years, it's no longer gonna be as funny to produce a picture of a pig with Mickey Mouse's head and three boobs. And I feel like now that's a big, big novelty. Some comedy is timeless. But I just don't imagine that in 15 years having the same novelty as it does now. 15 years. Or five years, 10 years. If you take away all the headlines, if you take away all of the money, and you actually look at what's there, it is everything.

41:07What you're describing is probably the most useful thing. It's like, do I know this? Okay, this seems plausible. I'm going to double check it. It's kind of like what Encarta could have been. I don't even mean that sarcastically. I, as a very cool child, I was very cool, would sit on Encarta for hours reading stuff. Because it was kind of like, wow, you have access to everything. And I think human beings are curious. So, of course, they're going to talk to it if it talks back. yeah i just think right now there is no business model that's the biggest one the biggest one is there really is no business model ads do not work ads are not going how do you put you inject ads within an lm look at what happened with grok grok happened because they tried to make us let's make it just how do we crank up this racism dial and like how do we mess with this system prompt but the thing is those subtle changes for even advertising will be bad perplexity's been talking about doing ads for a fucking year not heard much of that aravind and it's like on some level regardless of how useful it is the economics do not make sense they're nothing like an uber uber was such that you yes you well know it was a complete fucking and it still barely makes sense they're raising another 1.2 billion dollars but you can at least tell someone exactly what uber is and why you'd use it and it's just kind of chugging along through necessity i don't know how necessary chat GPT is.

42:22A large language model, a Google Gemini, and Google is claiming they're doing efficiency stuff, that could last. I think it will be heavily rate limited. I'm certain you are all right about the business models and the viability of this from a business standpoint. You know so much more than I do. I'm learning and it's fascinating. As a user of it who is not on the inside of the business, my prediction is you're dead wrong. No, Brian. What will happen? It's going to become the dominant thing in most of society in lots of ways. I think here's three. People are going to use it and it's going to be part of them like William Gibson predicted a really long time ago.

43:03I think it's bad at creative things, the thing people think it's good at. It's bad at that. I don't think you can write a story, yet none of them can convincingly write a story like Drucker could. Like lots of that stuff that's not there yet. I have no idea. Again, you all know way better than I do the science behind it. But you were asking about working out before. You could – 95 % of people who are trainers can't do as good a job of programming. And you could play different AIs against each other and are good at asking questions. That's also because 90 % of them are influencers with no serious background.

43:38Yes, but I'm saying even if you talk to science – because you can show programming. it can track for it can just now you may you may and i'm sure you're correct um that's not the ai doing it it's other people could have but the way ai can program and interact with you and allow you to catch up if someone asked me all day long people are asking me wait wait lift questions about programming well i can't program for you i don't know you well enough but i if we talk generally about what your goals are i could definitely talk to chat gpt or claude and build something that you could then iterate. That's a search engine.

44:16We're describing the iterations of search, though. But it's packaged in this way now. Go ahead. The thing that three of us are going to tell you are at different levels. I think Ed's coming to you at the business model, the very micro level. I'm sure he's right. And sure. And yeah, that's the way kind of how it's got to play out financially. And Drucker's come in with the medium level of the use case and everything. And I'm going to tell you that at the top level, I'll draw another parallel for you, which is two things come to mind. And one is how Bitcoin and crypto, very exciting. Everyone found a novelty factor and it ran for everyone wanted to make NFTs and crypto a thing.

44:48And then that was kind of dialed back down to a less fever pitch and more of a regular body temperature pitch. The macro metaphorical level is what I'm going to say. I think AI will dial back down to that normal regulatory sort of body temperature. and then to draw another parallel, Tinder was everyone was making their app the Tinder of this, Tinder of real estate, Tinder. And what you're describing is like an interface that works really well for something like a use case. The chat GPT model is an interface that works really well for question and answer, seeking help, assisting you with things.

45:20That might never go away. That might just get built into every app as access to LLMs becomes easier for developers. They'll build it into the Bank of America chatbot. They'll build it into everything. And so I think that's where it balances out eventually over time, maybe through rate limits. I don't know that that's going to be the way. I think some consolidation might happen. Yeah, but rate limits on actually accessing it regularly. I have the question back and forth for the people who are using ChatGPT, right? Yes, yes. Yeah, I think that will come too. But I think eventually we're talking like five years with druggers.

45:47I think with the rate limits, maybe in the short term. But I think even longer term than that, we're seeing that might eventually go away. Those apps may not even exist standalone. Yeah, and I think I actually don't know if I fully disagree with you about everything you're saying It's just that the scale of what we're talking about might be different Everyone having a large language model to access just saying that this is the future we're talking about Doesn't really change that much. I don't like the economics effect. I know I'm gonna do the business bullshit thing I do, but it's The economic effects are quite limited right now Now if you're saying everyone will have a large language model it'll be hamstrung in some way or what have you fine i can i can buy that for good or for bad i could see that happening i just don't think that it goes much further than what we see today and i think what you're describing is what google search should have become and like that was what i remember when bard came out i wrote about this i was kind of like surely what chat gpt is is what search was meant to be right as the cone brothers said you know sure if a if a if a frog you know had wings it wouldn't bump its ass hopping you know what I mean?

46:57and I'll say that you know I think that even as it's completely absorbed into our culture we're still going to be on the phone listening to an AI list medical options and going human, human, operator human like I don't think that's going away all green 771 I do think that people are going to be like yeah okay I'll talk you through my problems until I hit this part with my insurance and I just want a human right now And I don't think that's going away. No, not at all. I actually think we're really more on the same page than we've even seen. Because it's like my whole thing is what you're describing is a use case.

47:31I think there are real harms, but I think we kind of agree where the dangers would be. My thing is that people are extrapolating from that to this insane level. Like this whole – they keep talking about agents everywhere. You've got Matthew McConaughey. But agents is kind of what I'm describing, which is like every service has its own chatbot more or less. They're just using a different word for it. They're just using a different... Yeah. And I mean, that's kind of what like Bank of America already has a chatbot and it does not work. It's the bot you use when you're trying to search for a transaction.

47:59What am I talking about? For sure. The human... Of course we all do that. I guess I think it'll fool us better. That's fair. That's fair. I don't feel right. Oh, it's already fooled a lot of people very well. It's fooled people into killing themselves. Oh, God. Well, that's... Tell you that old character AI, of course. It's so cool that Google paid$2 billion for them. I'm not making an argument that this is a beneficent force. No, no, no, no, no. I wasn't accusing you of that. In any way, shape, or form, like I said, I've been reading about this for so long. But I do think that to just sort of – that's why I brought up the horse and buggy because, no, the people who wanted the horses, right, they were right about a lot of stuff, about the harms it would do.

48:39Yeah, the pollution. The pollution. The noise. Traffic. The way it would take us away from our communities. Yes. Like they were right about so much. what they were wrong about was the inevitable march of the future and time that's i think the same before coming to this podcast i was reading mike your piece and i was like oh yeah are we like in the industrial revolution forgetting about the agricultural revolution forgetting all the revolutions that came we are because i've seen it all from when i was i remember when aol showed up and compu serve and i remember i was invited on message board when i was 14 i'm 59 like this guy i knew had a message board in new york and had to dial up and i mean so i've seen this so i'm an early adapter stuff even though i'm an old dude i'm i'm but not from a tech side from a user i was i was on use that as an 11 year old this is the single as a just as a user meaning i don't know how it works or why yeah but i can explain to you why people are so fascinated and nfts i was on me you could find the old tweets going did you buy calling people buy one are you fucking mad hell yeah studying con people is like literally like why I started doing what I do but like no of course I recognize that as a con from the moment one but this doesn't be like a con to you but even when you say the bitcoin thing it's at 120 today yeah I know so bitcoin won there is actual value yeah NFTs were always huckster devices to separate suckers from their money and look Theodore Veblen said and David Mamet quotes it all the time every profession is a conspiracy against the laity every profession fucks over the regular yes i think that's super that's the and there's no doubt about that big short speech about the people who get harmed yeah mammoth was ahead of that by 20 years but you gotta you gotta look at it and not me mammoth and then and then me but um but so uh you you gotta just understand that it is very effective for people i'm just trying to bridge from what you're describing to the automobile which changed everything i don't think large language models i think they're going to create harms i think there are going to be things that change but it's like what happens now because what we have right now is basically what we've had for two years if you want to email me about reasoning please do i will email as much as you want but the thing is you look at this and people are going okay and then this will happen it's like that thing that with an llm that goes and does something really basic thing an llm that you tell to go and do a thing online they are bad bad at it there was a sales force study that said it's like 35 they like it was like 30 something percent they fail or like that was only the only ones they completed i don't think i've never asked an ai to do a task for me that's i'm saying i've never asked it to do it do one of those agent kind of functions i wouldn't i agree with you i wouldn't well i don't think it's there yet i mean for again as a user But research, I've had good research done.

51:29Really? Well, I mean, AI and gen AI has done a lot of good stuff in the medical fields too, right? Has it? CRISPR and all of that stuff. There's been a lot of discoveries about what sort of mutations you find in certain types of cancer that I don't think humans could have done that. If I want to study an industry to consider writing about it, I can ask – you have to ask good – I mean, it's like in anything else, right? I can ask really good questions of an AI and send it, you know, for the$200 a month model one where they'll do that research thing. And if I ask it to do research and then you can – it'll – like it will come back.

52:03And maybe you have to send it back three times. But the speed and – yeah, but you can very quickly verify a lot of it because you can – like the book list thing that I can't fathom being that irresponsible like those idiots who – in the paper. Mm-hmm. But you literally, all you have to say to them is, when it presents any kind of list, all you say to it is, go verify that list, please. How do you know what right is? Or verify it myself. I mean, I would verify it myself, right, at some point. But you go verify the list. It immediately goes, you're right. I was hallucinating. These three books don't exist.

52:38Okay. That happens. Then you go do it one more time and make sure that these titles are available in these stores. Yeah. Then they'll give you links. And then you can go look at it and verify it. So it's about the prompting that you're doing. And I think sometimes we're splitting here, though, is you're both of you are extraordinarily intelligent people who have done a lot of research in your life. So you know how to do those. You know how to be like, I need to follow this up. I need to search this. Make sure. I do think that one of the problems, again, coming from like the low level consumer level, is it's often being marketed as an impartial refer.

53:07Impartial refer. Oh, you're totally right. Mike, you're totally right. It's not that. You cannot. You'll be fucked so bad. But most people don't interact with it like you do is what I'm saying. Well, but they can. They can. And I agree with you. They can. I think it's almost. Oh, but. They don't lead them to do that. It's not like they have things that guide them. Right. I would. This is really interesting here. Yeah. You're saying about this. Yeah. Well, I mean, I think that, you know, when you see people and we all saw the Grok Nazi thing. But if you see people on Twitter, they don't use they I would say fewer use it to do Nazi shit as much as they go.

53:40Hey, Grok, is this true? Is this true? Is this true? And depending on what finger is on which scale, the answer is different each time. but I think that there's a lot of people. I understand why you're saying. I haven't been on Twitter since October or whatever that date is. So I don't know. But I would never, of course, you can't just say let's go to the AI as though that's a final arbiter and certainly not today in 2025. But it's being positioned as that. I think that's my problem is it's being positioned that way and I think you're absolutely right. I think you're absolutely right how useful it is, especially if you have the skill to use it.

54:14I think the problem is it is being marketed as this is a catch-all solution. This is a panacea to your knowledge problems. Oh, yeah. You know what I mean? Of course, that's a dumbing down. Well, it is like believing Rockstar Games that they're going to get fucking Grand Theft Auto out, right? I mean, it's no different. I mean, I literally would have... Look at the actuarial table. If you had to build one on my life expectancy versus when the next fucking iteration of GTA, I might lose. But here's the thing that you've described in the research. it isn't an invalid use case. What you're describing is how people use Google search to do research.

54:49They pull up a bunch of stuff. They go through them. They look at it and they go, is this right? But that's a slog. It is a slog. What you're describing is a slog. No, no, it is not. It's a pleasure. It's not. No, you got to be honest about it. It is a total pleasure, not a slog. I should be clear. Also, I have actually used these things. I've genuinely tried because I love my dude. That's my gizmos. And I've really, I've sat down and been like, what am I missing? You just became Paul McCartney. that was a true paul mccartney moment he has not accepted my invite for the show though uh no he had not invited mecca um my mom would be so happy uh no it's just i really feel like this keeps coming back to the you are using it in a totally fine way i'm mad at the fact that everyone's like and this is the only thing you'll need you can fully trust this this is the best thing the information's the best you're looking at it and going this is a way of digging through information and passing stuff and having a conversation with the inflation in front of me.

55:42But lowest comment in the broad society. Yes, that's who we're fucking up. But unfortunately, yes, you're right. Our educational system is really fucked up. Disadvantaged people have no chance to. Mike went to a school that allowed people from disparate areas to get. We got to reform the education system in the country so that everyone has a fair shot. I agree. But there's a very basic. Let's do it. Yeah, but there's actually a very basic thing we don't have. What's that? There should be regulation that says that these things need big fucking disclaimers that say, hey, check everything. They won't do it because the incentives we discussed, but that would actually be, I think, all the stealing is also bad.

56:16I think the environmental damage is bad, but I think we agree on that. It's just - Safeguards are always great. But they aren't - Safeguards, but then you got to figure out who decides what those safeguards are and who's - Like you talked to Bill Gurley, he'll talk about regulatory creep, right? So where do you want to - I'm just saying - No, no, no. I agree with you. He's a smart person and he's thoughtful about this stuff. And so who do you want? Do you want the - I mean, with this, you want the current government deciding guardrails? Who's to do? But here's a very basic guardrail. It's just a disclaimant that says everything with generative AI is blah, blah, blah.

56:49Some of them have it now, but they're all in preview, right? And that's probably what they're couching against. They do say right on GBC now, it says double check everything. Every single time. Yeah, they do. Every single time. Really? Every single time. And Apple Intelligence. I saw it today, actually, for sure. Yeah, because they have been criticized. But to Brian's larger point, there are guardrails put in place into a lot of these. I'm most familiar with the Gemini's and the Apple intelligences and the Amazon ones of the world. And their guardrails are around like CSAM, right? Child sexual abuse material or like not presenting people's faces or like trying to avoid photorealism because then you get very deceptive very quickly.

57:25You don't see any of that. You don't see any of that in Grok maybe. It depends. I just looked. I know. I just used it. Which one? GPT? I don't use that. GPT does really. It does. But I'm not going to turn on my phone. No, but I'm like, I'm just like, here's the thing. If they're there sometimes and not others, that's also bad. Yeah, that is bad. It's like, it's because when you've got people who are killing themselves, people that are having, it was Miles Clee, I think it was over at Rolling Stone, wrote this piece about people having psychotic reactions. Yeah, I agree. This administration, I probably don't want regulating this.

57:54But the answer being, let's regulate nothing is terrifying. Well, it's really, but it is confusing because if you think about, let's say Facebook. Right. There's no doubt that Facebook was used in Myanmar to foment a genocide. People were warned inside. Who knows where it got to? This is very well documented. How could one... After the fact, it's... Okay, we... It's really hard to sort of figure out these use cases. And then should all social media have gone away? Like some people think it should be... I would feel... All social media should... I'm going to say a little bit better about that if Andrew Bosworth, the CTO of - I know who that is.

58:35Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mostly say it for the list. Yeah. Because also they're yelling at me. No, but if I know, I'm a Luddite. Well, that's good. If I know, your listeners know. He did an internal letter in 2016, 2017, where he said that all things were justified for growth, including a terror attack. And that's kind of how they approach everything. No, it was monstrous. Like when I saw that Myanmar thing, it made me say like I should never use Facebook. I mean, I think that is as bad a thing as I've ever seen. I mean, literally. This is still an example though. And Meta's LLM allows children, and Jeff Horwitz reported this at the journal, allowed children to have sexual conversations with John Cena.

59:12Very peculiar. Like there was like a... It's a chatbot. Let's be super clear it was not John Cena. No, he was just on the phone with him. You said with John Cena. I just want to say it was not John Cena. It was just John Cena. He's gone to jail for a hundred years. On the bear, I was in a scene with John, a lovely guy, and he definitely wasn't doing that. No, no, he seems like a guy. He seems down to it. I'm saying it was the voice of John Cena you're allowed to have pedo conversations with. But again, it's this lack of restriction because no particular technology is evil at its core. Yeah, that's fair.

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1:02:50I think what Brian was saying, and I don't know if I'm misinterpreting you, but there is some fatigue at seeing these things throughout all the pharmaceutical warnings you get at the end of every commercial, every warning you're going to get from Gemini from now on, every Apple intelligence warning that's like, notification summaries can be wrong sometimes. Why are you seeing that? I see them on my phone. Where are you seeing the notification warning? No, no, no, I believe you. Why am I not seeing this? I guess what I'm saying is that why I brought up Myanmar is, no, we as a society, unfortunately, we default to the convenient, fun, easy thing.

1:03:23Yeah, that's that. What we all should have done when Facebook, and I'm not even blaming exactly, like you can blame Boz. I don't know enough to blame anybody there. We know that Facebook itself was used by these generals in Myanmar. Right. Yes. And nobody took pause. Like, I think very few people left Facebook as a result of that. I think so. I just don't know what the fix is for these problems because we gravitate like bees to honey. But there are also like tools that can be used as weapons. And it depends on the perpetrator and the person using these. Right. And it's an age old question. Again, coming back to the industrial and agricultural revolution.

1:03:59This can be just a tool for hacking a plant off of its husk or it can be used as a murder weapon. And back to AI, it can be very informative, very helpful for people who need companionship. It can be used like people who send me scam texts all the time. The technology keeps keeping up with them and filtering them out. So they keep changing their spam. Bad actors are going to bad act. That's just the way it's going to be. What can we do? We can. I stopped using Facebook. I try to educate my parents every single time they use a GPT answer with me. I'm like, mom and dad, stop using that. But then they just keep using it because they're the sort of person that's susceptible.

1:04:34of this. They will just use it because convenience and they don't want to do the extra work of maybe the Google search method, which you were saying, Ed, or they just want something that's easy and they don't care if they get it wrong, maybe. I guess I love the idea of you using your brains to figure out how to make these things safer and more useful as you agitate within the industry. I think trying to find a way for them to disappear seems impossible. And again, NFTs were obviously going to disappear. But the underlying Bitcoin thing wasn't because there's too much. Well, the moment this election happened, the moment this election happened, Bitcoin was going to 200.

1:05:14Bitcoin was going because. And what sucks about that is we could have stopped crypto. I was writing about it at the time. I was. And the only. How are you going to stop crypto? By informing people about the inherently criminal aspect that underlies everything. The fact that Tether is more than likely in the hands of multiple different. I tried and I failed. And you know what? It sucks. But you try, you can put ideas out there. You can see if people pick them up. And I mean, that's kind of what you do there. In the case of crypto, it's such a weird thing as well, because it's there, but it isn't.

1:05:44It doesn't really do anything other than fund things or be funded. And it just kind of exists where it's just like they kind of they don't even I kind of respect the fact they don't even try and be literally you're talking that Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett's book. That's what they always say. I know. But that's what they always said because of that. that that's their whole point that forget the blockchain it doesn't really do you know yeah oh yeah and do anything and the thing is though there was real money in that which there isn't in general uh and i think that what's funny is this convenience thing you're talking about may actually be their downfall because those 500 million weekly active chat tpt users are costing them billions of dollars it's probably all going to fascinating it's not as fascinating yeah that is interesting that they mean their popularity is going to destroy yeah those companies not not not the underlying tech but that the companies themselves that's fascinating i'm really like i'm saying you're teaching me something i had no idea about that i'll explain it very simply which is open ai last year spent nine billion dollars to lose five billion dollars anthropic spent 5.3 billion dollars no sorry they look they spent like nine seven eight so they spent billions to lose 5.3 billion dollars of which a chunk of that was just given to amazon for servers it's very fucking weird.

1:06:58They lose money, their conversion rate on ChatGPT is awful. So, 500 million, I think they have 15.5, 60 million paying subscribers. They don't publish monthly active users, because if they did, you could do the math and see it's trash. And on top of that, they just can't find a way to make money. They lose so much money. So what's more than likely is, yeah, these companies might die. LLMs will hang around because there are use cases. And Google is, like, Jeff Dean over at Google is one of the least evil tech people. There are actually people there who like the tech and give a shit about it and there's more efficiency stuff coming out of google's models the thing is what we see today i do not believe is i think the most annoying scenario is going to be the longest life large language model with unlimited access is going to be on fucking meta because of their unrestricted tripe that's on every fucking app but i think things like chat gpt are just going to be limited you may still have people who use them in the way But it's interesting what you're saying about maybe an answer and you think about the industrial revolution is eventually is that people are going to have to be trained on instead of firing 9 ,000 people, train 9 ,000 people.

1:08:05Become prompt engineers. Yeah, become prompt engineers. And the fact that they didn't. I mean, look, no one is less surprised than me by incentive structures making these motherfuckers act like evil. It's completely non-caring. you know um monsters but if they can be convinced that there's a profit motive in training people there's no profits no if they can be convinced of it no but i must be clear though but eventually but in all these businesses there was no profit until nothing nothing even how long did it take amazon to become profitable amazon took about 11 years with aws but aws was the concern that reduced costs for amazon itself to run their but in 2000 a lot of people thought it was never going to become profitable right yeah but that's not the same logic yeah but no but the economics are Here it is.

1:08:49It's completely different economics. Can I ask though, Brian, how much would you pay to keep using ChatGPT a month? I'm a bad – I'm older and I've done well. Do you know what I'm saying? Do you pay anything right now, I guess, is the question? I pay$200 a month. $200 a month. Okay. So Google One is like$250 a month. Why do you pay$200? That's a lot of money. For the research. Because for the supercharged research. You can get the research on the$20 a month one, though. Not the same level of the – That's an interesting thing to point out, too, is that you're getting better quality by paying for a higher – Yes, I'm aware of it.

1:09:19It's unfair. No, but seriously, is there a quality difference? Yeah, if you look at it, we could, yeah. Oh my God. But Mike's saying this is to see how they profit. They say there's a quality. They would tell you there is an added in the amount of, whatever the user rate, what is it, the rate? So they sell you shit products to make you buy the less shit product? Well, I don't know if they sell you shit product, but you're saying the use rate. Someone told me, someone I trust a lot, a person who's tech savvy was like, this is when that happened, they used it for a while. And a couple of months ago, I was in a meeting with someone and they were like, if I was going to tell you to spend money on anything, spend 200 bucks a month on this.

1:09:50You want to have something crazy though? Yes. They lose money on every 200 buck a month customer. I believe you because I'm using, because when they do that search, you're saying it's burning so much. But that's the thing. Yeah. How likely do you think that that will continue? Because the deep research stuff - I have no idea. If they start charging you more, are you going to quit, I guess? No, but that's, well, of course, there's a number very soon. I'm already at the - Yeah, you're very high end of it. Yeah. Yeah. For sure, double this, I would not pay double. Right, exactly. I guarantee I would not pay.

1:10:17And I will be honest, and this is not even me being like a hater or anything. It may not be that cheap. Because right now, I just did a big story in my newsletter. Please pay for it. 500 a month? For a 200 a month power user who's already losing the money, they lose so much money on them that it's like 400, 500,$1 ,000 a month. Claude Code right now, which is slightly different because the way they do context stuff. Nevertheless, on the$200 a max user on Claude, they could be losing... They had someone I saw on Twitter, they spent$10 ,000 in compute on a 200-month subscription. These are the majority of power users.

1:10:56Power users go nuts, as you well know. This is why I'm so pushy on the economics, because what we are seeing today, it's like if every Uber weighed 40 ,000 pounds and the fuel was giraffe blood. It was just like this insane economic... And I sound like I'm kidding, but the economics are completely bonkers. So as much use as you're getting today, I just don't know how practically they'll provide that. And they might be cheaper models, but the cheaper models might not be able to do. I assume you use O3. Yeah, of course. Yeah, so - Which takes a lot. Yeah, and sometimes it still takes such a long time.

1:11:29And that's the thing - To even have a conversation. And that's the thing. An incredibly long time. How much of this is sustainable long-term? And I know the business stuff is annoying because you still have your experience, which you like. No, it's not annoying. It's fascinating. i'm fascinated by the whole thing this is great it's just the long term here and i'm talking long term as in 18 months is i don't know if we will have deep research at any price point approaching the one we'll have in that period well the deep research is the only reason anyone should pay the money and that's the thing though the only reason that people should pay is the thing that is not sustainable and has no profit so when you talk about and how we bring this towards like an aws situation yeah aws is like a profitability was built on infrastructure expansion it was because they were building the rails of cloud writ large it was never in the billions and billions a year with no there is no path to profitability here uh there was one model that open ai said they were going to deliver to open microsoft in 2023 called arrakis uh and and they failed to do it they have yet to discover a or make because it may not be mathematically possible a really good large language model that can do the kind of reasoning like that that would be reliable and have the web search tool.

1:12:41And I want to say you do have to, when you talk about prompts, sorry, I was thinking about this when I was learning about complexity theory. I read this book by a guy named Neil Deist that I love. He's a professor at NYU and I'm not good at physics and I really want to understand quantum physics. And so I would ask questions, right? Do research on this and then find a way to be able to explain it. So go read these books, go find documentaries. and then I just quickly realized at some point that the AI hadn't, it was clear to me it hadn't read something. Because it doesn't have access to the AI.

1:13:13But I could figure it out. It hadn't. And I just said like, did you really look at that video? Like it was video. I go, did you really look at that video? Yeah. That speech? And then it immediately went, no, you got me there. I didn't look at the speech, but I'm going to go now find it a different way. So you do have to be acculturated to having those kinds of - That's crazy at 200 months. Like you have to maybe have advanced degrees or have trained yourself. So I'm not – this is fascinating, right? Because I take for granted the steps I've taken to make my way through the world. Yes. And like the way that I would interrogate something like that to get to an answer that's useful.

1:13:55Yeah. As opposed to maybe my parents would be like, oh, okay, you watched that video? Oh, okay. Yeah, okay, right. That's your answer, right? Yeah. And they might get wrong information from it. Exactly. can't argue with that you're right about and i think that a lot of this a grand theory of this comes down to i think people have a lot of questions and not a lot of people to ask them to questions about their life how they're feeling then that's the loneliness i think it starts with the medical side where it's it's quite hard to ask a doctor a question in any country it's hard to know whether they and also doctors regularly make you feel annoying i'm not talking about my doctor he loves me uh but if you can't go to a doctor regularly with little questions they don't have the time because they must maximize profits or they are busy one of the two yeah and ultimately we are sitting there going i've got this weird rash or like i might leg itched in this place in the same day three days running what could that mean and you can't really google that it's just but you can't really google that but chat gpt whatever can do an impressive impression of it or in your case brian and i think this is reasonable lead you in a direction towards like a Mayo Clinic article about a particular thing, something you could raise to your doctor.

1:15:02That makes sense. People are lonely. People just have weird questions. And I think that there is partially a bad side where it's like everyone wants everything immediately. We must have everything we want immediately. But also people are curious and we are more disconnected as people. We are more decentralized as people. We don't meet people. We don't have, we are at scale overworked, underpaid. so we don't have the time to be generous with our time. Yeah. I'll give you one other use case though, because, and it goes to the question of training, but you could use this for, you said your parents dance or whatever.

1:15:35So I'll tell you that if you are somebody who is, I'll use like deadlifting or squatting with a barbell as an example. If I put a 30 second clip into ChatGPT and I say, please watch this. Tell me, is this form at risk of injury? How should I modify it? Is it good enough? What do you think about the load of this weight? The answer it will give is, and I have checked it again. It's like the world. The answer it will give is outstanding. And that's, how would you get that in another way? I don't think there is. And that's a very small example. Well, that's different than search. There's an expert.

1:16:15No, that's. It's searching using a video. No, it's not. The matching is a bit less sophisticated in a regular Google search. No, I'm saying that, no, that is the match. It's not merely matching it against a perceived perfect form. It's looking at your femur. Literally, it'll go with your femur size. This is the kind of squat that you could do if I low bar versus high bar. Here's why. Here's what this looks like. You're over. I'm agreeing with you. I'm just saying that search as a term has grown to look at this image and compare it to these sources, which is theoretically what search. But then in the good language, right?

1:16:46Yeah. Then in the right language, explain how to fix it. But I do worry if you ask a bad question, like if you not ask a bad question, phrase a question incorrectly. Sure. And I'm not saying you. If one phrases, let's say they ask a fitness question, but they phrase it a little bit weird and the answer they get is harmful. It almost I'm worried about situations like that. And also it feels like we're removing an element of human responsibility or accountability where it's like, well, the machine answered weird rather than like a doctor answered weird. And I think that lots of corporations love that idea.

1:17:21They love that because it's like, if my AI accidentally denies your insurance, it was the AI, it wasn't us. It's the algorithm. Yeah. It's the same algorithmic pass-on thing. But I think you're right in that that is kind of cool. I also have used O3 because I do pay for this. I'm not a baseless hater. I did ask, what's the distance between this bottom of this photo frame and the floor? and it spent 10 minutes to give me a completely insanely wrong answer. They're not good with numbers. Oh, fascinating. See, the other day in this example I just gave you, it said, I can't see. It just said, like, I can't see.

1:17:56Which is good. That was great. That should do that. That was great. Both of you using the same model. I was using O3 on ChapGPT Plus, though. So now I can see. Try the pro. No, I don't know how I feel about giving Clammy Sammy 200 bucks. Just try it for a month and see what it does. Yeah. You can write it off. I don't want to write. I already gave 200 bucks to Wario Amidate. No, because I would love you to do that and then call me and say it's the same. No, no. I would love you to tell me. I'm now actually really curious. I would love you to say to me, dude, just spent 20 bucks. It's the same?

1:18:27That would be great news. Then you could save your 180 a month. Yeah, that'd be great news. Please. I am, what Mike was bringing up, I thought was going to be similar to the point I had been mulling over when you were talking about the training stuff, which is that we already deal with, due to like, you know, capitalism, lower barriers to entry, an influx of individuals who may not actually be fully equipped for the jobs they purport to do. So whether it be journalists like myself or like, again, fitness influencers or trainers that say they have whatever types of physical health degrees that are just the result of a 10-hour course online, that sort of thing.

1:18:58We're already dealing with the quality dilution of information coming from sources like that. To throw AI into the mix feels like making it even worse, like harder than ever to tell what the truth is. And I don't know about you all, But I find myself gaslighting myself all the time now, regardless of like my own life, whether it's the truth in the world, whether I'm being too sympathetic to multiple different perspectives. I don't know what the truth is anymore. I can't tell you what the cold, hard scientific truth of anything ever is. And that's where it's led me. You also have to be willing.

1:19:29I agree with that. That's a brilliant point. I think one of the things I would say to people, if someone asked me, how should you communicate? I would say, and it's really painful for people because I've seen them talk online about what they love about conversing with AI. you got to say, click every toggle that says, be mean, tell me the truth. Don't tell me I'm smart. Yeah. Like you got to instruct it to really be withholding in that way. If you want to actually engage so that, so that you're, you're not getting gaslit because yes, I agree that this is dangerous. The default setting is to gaslight you.

1:20:03You got to actually go, I don't need to hear that. Glaze you. I think the young people glaze you. Sure. we could talk about one time before we're done you didn't hear the producer just laugh out loud at that can we talk about just one I think they used to say glaze but can we just talk about one positive purely positive tech thing that happened the last week sure please who's on TikTok and knows all about the antipasto party in Texas biggest story on TikTok was it the one that one person went to yeah okay it's the greatest thing please run us through this they're in Texas these people have a july 4th party there's a woman she's just moved there recently her kid becomes friends with someone else's kid and this woman sarah is the parent of one boy says come with me over to these people party these people's party woman a makes the apotheosis of all antipasto the greatest salad you've ever seen in your life goes to their house yeah and these people are like who's this stranger in our house and they kick her out even though she brought this incredible she goes home and gets on tiktok and she's crying and she's like i brought this salad and they kicked me out of their house and the entire internet her yeah and loves her so much and it's like it's an incredible story everybody i know is like talk like everybody of all ages like nieces and nephews of mine and then older people older than me are all sending and it's an amazing thing it's a huge community has rallied to hate these fucking people and to love her and her homemade mozzarella and homegrown tomatoes that she brought to their house I saw something else but yeah a summary of it no I saw something else all together it's really worth finding but like Reddit does things like that too and that's the thing Reddit like this is I like ending this in a positive note that's lovely Reddit does you were going to say something well yeah no community and social forums like that that's what the internet is great for And not a lot of AI is present in a lot of that.

1:22:05And it's almost Reddit, especially right now, has got good because it isn't. The CEO keeps thinking of shoving it places. But even like the better offline, Reddit, we've got 9 ,000 a year now. Hey, guys. But it's great because one of my biggest stories I wrote recently was on Cursor and them falling apart. And it was because someone on the forum was just like looking through their stuff like, and everyone had this full conversation about it. you've got these people out there in this morass of fake stuff or generated stuff or seo stuff you've got genuine people there is still a joy to all of this crap i love blue sky as well but reddit has really just i'm shocked by a lot of time on reddit i read it i'm shocked and a lot of their groups someone ever goes to on oh sure yeah of course you gotta pick your own i mean i know but i'm saying you know like but but there where people have a hobby or a thing like whether it's music you know you're like i take stuff yeah it's great and you must love the like the claude reddit because they hate every day someone's like why does claude suck today you must love that i love r slash google yes i i like r slash sass because it's all just people like running sass no it's all people software no no no you're thinking of a different sass one i'm talking s-a-a-s software as a service yeah i'm a loser so um no you watch people being like Like, my app has been up for six months and it's made$7.

1:23:27Should I continue? A bunch of people are like, yes. And those subscribe. No, I kind of love them. Yeah. You've got these niches. But I hate to say it. I do need to call this episode. Brian, where can people find you? Oh, Instagram. Yes. We'll have a link to there as well. Yeah. You can find me on Instagram at Mike Drucker is dead and on Blue Sky at Mike Drucker. And by Good Game No Rematch. It is a book that's available digital, hardcover, or audio with the audio read by myself. Hell yeah. Very nice. Sherlyn? I'm at engadget.com or on threads at Sherlyn's Instagram, C-H-E-R-L-Y-N-N-S-T-H-E-R-E-M.

1:24:03Type in Google, the man who destroyed Google search. That's me. I'm Ed Zichron. Thank you so much for listening. As ever, this is recorded in the wonderful New York studio and iHeartRadio. Daniel Goodman, of course, is our producer. Thank you so much, Daniel. Thank you all for listening.

1:24:24Thank you for listening to Better Offline. The editor and composer of the Better Offline theme song is Matt Ossowski. You can check out more of his music and audio projects at matosowski.com. M-A-T-T-O-S-O-W-S-K-I.com. You can email me at ez at betteroffline.com or visit betteroffline.com to find more podcast links and, of course, my newsletter. I also really recommend you go to chat.wheresyoured.at to visit the Discord and go to r slash betteroffline to check out our Reddit. Thank you so much for listening. Better Offline is a production of Cool Zone Media. For more from Cool Zone Media, visit our website, coolzonemedia.com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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