The Unlikely Anthropic & SpaceX Marriage, OpenAI Trial Revelations, AI Layoffs Or Cope?

26:14And Anthropic has performed so well and become such a successful company going after the same market as SpaceX. SpaceX has now become an enabling technology for Anthropic. Like, doesn't matter how long it lasts. That in and of itself is remarkable. It's the ultimate revenge for Dario.

26:32Ranjan Roy:It is. But do you know what I've been thinking about is I really believe a lot of Anthropics power has also come from X. And, like, I mean, even within the industry, everyone you talk to, like, everyone talks about, like, seeing the power of Claude and Claude Code and the use on X. It's LinkedIn. Nah. It's X. Well, that's the platform of, that's the AI platform. That's the AI platform. Yeah. And, and Elon has his finger on the dial and can control that in whatever direction he wants. And like, I still imagine kind of leads Dario in, reels him in, and then actually shuts off. You're not engaging in actions that are good for humanity.

27:20Ranjan Roy:And then, I mean, honestly, 4.7, the backlash you got, we've used it. it's a little wonky. So we all feel it. It's not just being made up all the complaining around it, but like, it is kind of crazy to think about the power that still remains now. And that's amplified by now being your provider of compute. Okay. Yes. But now actually I'm going to revise a statement I made just a couple of minutes ago, which is when I said you couldn't find someone that dislikes more than Elon dislikes Dario. Yeah, you could. It's Elon disliking Sam. He dislikes Sam more than he dislikes Dario. And I wouldn't discount the IPO math here because let's say you're Elon Musk and you want to kill OpenAI.

28:02So you bring them to trial over their conversion from a nonprofit to a for-profit. Okay, so he's doing that. Now, what else do you do? You think about the IPO calendar and there have been reports that Anthropic is trying to go IPO this year. So now think about it this way. SpaceX will be the one that IPO is first out of this. I think we can both agree there. Then if Anthropic goes ahead of OpenAI and uses this compute to support that ADX demand growth and can show exceptional demand, you know, an exponential curve of demand before it hits the public markets and then leaving OpenAI to sheepishly walk in third and, you know, with its reputation damaged after the trial and with its compute advantage, not erased, but minimized because of this deal, you potentially, and it needing to raise more capital to continue to serve its use case, that to me is potentially the way that you go about trying to kill open AI and maybe that's what Elon's doing.

28:57Ranjan Roy:Okay. Okay. I like this theory. I like this theory. This is, see, this makes more sense to me than actually like the numbers around demand and whether it's meeting supply and shortage compute. What you just explained actually makes way more sense to me of how this would have come about and how this is playing out. Actually, one question I'm going to, I'm curious your thoughts. Because we've been talking about this. I now view everything these companies do in the lens of everyone racing to IPO as fast as possible. Why do these companies need to IPO? Oh, that's a great question. My suggestion here is that they were actually not planning to IPO this fast.

29:46In fact, the news of the SpaceX IPO, I guess that might've been planned, but the news of the Anthropic IPO and the OpenAI IPO is rather new. My theory is that they were actually going to try to raise one more round of private capital, and they might still do it, from the final boss of private capital, and that is the Gulf states. And this Iran war made the Gulf states more hesitant to put all this money into U.S. companies, and hence they have to go IPO.

30:15Ranjan Roy:Okay, that I agree with 100%. It took us a half hour, but finally a harmony moment here. That makes all the sense. No, I mean, because I really was wondering, like, money in private markets remains feeling infinite. And again, is mass public market investor exposure really going to be that different? Like, it's just felt like it's made me wonder why everything feels so urgent all of a sudden when they've just been, again, what was OpenAI's last round? 122 billion. 122 billion. That is bigger than vast, vast majority of most IPOs in terms of - No, no, sorry. That's bigger than any IPO. No IPO has raised that amount of money.

31:04Wait, not even the financial one? I think was Saudi Aramco, and that was$29 or$39 billion. So this is at least 3x to 4x larger than the biggest IPO ever.

31:14Ranjan Roy:Okay, okay. See, so that's why it has been odd to me how intense this pressure of everyone chasing towards IPO has felt very recently. You made it all make sense, though, so I'm going to give you credit on that one. I will note Anthropic is likely going to raise at least one more round. It looks like they're going to raise$50 billion at a$900 billion pre-money valuation. Here's an investor. They told the Financial Times, people are ready to throw any dollar amount at Anthropic. It's just about when they want to pop their heads up and say, we're ready. I still can't be. Do you know what? I think like it didn't, you're on a roll right now.

31:55Ranjan Roy:It did not hit me until that the largest fundraiser in history at the Aramco was only$30 billion in terms of actual funds raised. Oh, yeah. This is making even less sense to me right now. This is just like you're getting$122 billion in the private markets, and you're like this energy and intensity to go public. Well, I think, yeah, they will go public. You know, they will go public. They will try to raise as much money as they can on the private markets. but it's a balance there because you don't really want to be this third AI company to go public. No, you don't. There's going to be limited money out there to fund you.

32:34Ranjan Roy:You don't? Or maybe not. That's why, no, no, I think that's the intensity of who's getting out and when. I think that's why it's so intense right now. All right, let me see if I can just build on my winning streak here for one more little fun thing here. And that is, was Mythos marketing or was Mythos real? This is from TechCrunch. Anthropics Mythos has written Firefox's approach to cybersecurity. In a post published on Thursday, Mozilla said Mythos has unearthed a wealth of high security bugs, including some that had lain dormant in the code for more than a decade. That is a significant improvement from what AI security tools were capable of even six months ago.

33:14Until now, AI bug finding tools have come with severe drawbacks. But Mozilla's researchers say the latest generation of tools have turned a corner, particularly now that agentic systems can assess their own work and filter out bad results. The results are striking. In April 2026, Firefox shipped 423 bug fixes compared to just 31 a year earlier. This is from a distinguished engineer at Mozilla. Things are actually suddenly very good. We see that our own internal scanning. We see that on external bug reports. And we see that in all sorts of signals across the industry. They jumped from teens of bug finds to 423.

33:54No, sorry, 31 to 423 year over year.

33:58Ranjan Roy:Still not coming around. You had a streak, but I'm still not coming around on this one. Okay, now I'm going to go back to one, a 15-year-old error in how the browser parses an HTML element was one of those 12 bugs that they published details on. Is that a vulnerability that is kind of like, like what of these bugs were just true vulnerabilities that could kind of like cause catastrophe and take down a system? I think that like finding bugs and bringing more attention to software bugs and are these things that like, it's cool. I mean, that is the promise of AI. And I think, is it mythos specifically or did Anthropic invest and use the previous models to do the same kind of work?

34:46Ranjan Roy:or did it just bring attention to it now? I don't know. Sandwich in a park, mythos, until we hear more about it, see something concrete. And again, we can say this is concrete, but do you believe this firmly confirms mythos is not marketing? I'm going to just go with Ethan Malek, the AI expert and Wharton professor. He says, I realized that mythos as hype means two different things to different groups. For insiders, it means Mythos was not a magical step change in AI ability. For outsiders, it means Mythos couldn't really find zero-day exploits. The latter was wrong. The former was likely right.

35:29Wait. So the second one. So Mythos can find zero-day. So that's what I'm saying. So now I agree with you.

35:38Ranjan Roy:Now I agree with you. That's what I'm saying. It's not a magical step change in AI ability. But I can find zero-day exploits. Okay, let's just agree there. Yeah, yeah. All right, we agree. Cool. All right. So before we go to break, we have to go to break because we're going to need to spend at least a good chunk of our time now reading from the OpenAI and Elon trial and some of the evidence there. But before we go to break, I want to talk a little bit about our AI summit that we have in San Francisco on June 18th. Look, folks, I attempted to post a short episode Wednesday morning talking about what was going on with this event.

36:15Somehow for some of you, there were some ads that were playing in front of that. It was supposed to be an ad-free episode. I tried to take those ads down. It didn't work. Let me tell you about the AI Summit right now. We're going to have this thing called the Big Technology AI Summit. It is in San Francisco at the Commonwealth Club on June 18th. It is a day of conversation. Doors open at like 12 or 1230. Conversations start at one. They run till five will have a wine reception on the roof. Very small. It's going to be 200, 250 people. It's properly priced. I believe it's under a hundred dollars right now, though the tickets will rise as demand goes up.

36:51And we have a great lineup. We have Greg Brockman from OpenAI who's coming, the president of OpenAI, Arvin Srinivas, the CEO of Perplexity, Aaron Levy, the CEO of Box, Lauren Good, the senior correspondent from Wired is going to be there. and we just confirmed that Dylan Patel from Semi Analysis is going to be there. It's an all-star lineup. It's going to be a really great day. So if you check out summit.bigtechnology.com, you can grab a ticket while they still are out there. We're on our way to being sold out, so you should definitely do that while you still can. San Francisco, June 18th, Commonwealth Club.

37:26Be part of the first one of these things, summit.bigtechnology.com. Now we go to break. We'll see you on the other side with a dramatic reading of Sam Altman and Mira Murati's texts. Back right after this. Most leaders know how work is supposed to happen, but when it comes to how it actually gets done day-to-day across tools, teams, and handoffs, they're mostly guessing. That's exactly the problem Scribe Optimize was built to solve. Trusted by over 80 ,000 enterprises, including nearly half of the Fortune 500, it gives leaders a live view into how work is really happening across approved business apps without interviews, manual process mapping, or extra effort from the team.

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39:50In just 10 minutes, your dream technician will check your tire pressure, top off fluids, change your oil, and verify with Carfax exactly what your car really needs. All while keeping you in the driver's seat. Take 5, the stay-in-your-car 10-minute oil change. Find your nearest shop at take5.com. And we're back here on Big Technology Podcast, Friday edition. We're here with Ranjan Roy of Margins. uh ranjan when these text messages between sam altman and mira marati the former cto of open ai came out these are the text messages that they were sending to each other uh during what's called the blip or when sam altman was fired over a weekend and then eventually reinstated i texted you the that we must read them uh as a dialogue here so uh ranjan replied back uh i'd like to be Meera, which is fine.

40:40We've divvied up the parts. Shall we read? I think so. Where should we start from the beginning on this?

40:46Ranjan Roy:Let's start from the beginning. It won't take too long. Let's start from the beginning. Okay. All right. November 19th, 2023. Can you indicate directionally good or bad? Satya and others anxious. Directionally very bad. Okay. Can you wrap up soon? Lots of pressure from microsoft for an update sam this is very bad can i come in they don't want you to what do you want to make it better i'm still willing to walk away if that helps if they are ramped up for crazy lawsuits against me then i'm not sure what can you please tell them i just want to resolve this however and would like to join they are convinced about their decision for me to be fired or some new thing yes for you to be gone Okay.

41:33Then can I come in and talk about a path forward with them?

41:36Ranjan Roy:They're saying no and need more time. More time for what? They've walked me through all the reasons and the issues with you and why you can't be CEO. Can you ask why they've been saying all weekend they wanted me back? They want a new CEO in place. Can you say you will call back in 10 minutes? They want to have a new CEO in place tonight, not me. Do they know who? Can I tell Sadia? Is this final? or should you add Satya in? Trying to add Satya now. Still don't want me? New guy is rando twitch guy. And scene. Oh my God. It really gives you a feeling of like what it was like to be there at that time.

42:18How stressful.

42:19Ranjan Roy:I also, I mean, the fact that Mira became interim CEO adds to the whole thing. But rando twitch guy is definitely the line from the entire thing. I think he's got to be worth over a billion dollars. He's like a founder of Justin TV, CEO of Twitch. I mean, this is an incredibly successful entrepreneur and all he gets is rando Twitch guy. He wrote on his Twitter, it's an honor just to be nominated. And I think he made this background rando Twitch guy. But it's funny because, I mean, I'll just say this, like when this whole thing continued and when this whole thing sort of seemed to wrap up, you and I had a discussion and we both agreed in no uncertain terms that the drama within open AI was just not anywhere close to being over, that the structure is still lent itself to exploitation and not exploitation, to instability.

43:21And clearly we're like seeing that now.

43:25Ranjan Roy:Oh, yeah. I mean, I think we've said this. Yeah. It is crazy that that was two and a half years ago, maybe. I mean, that certainly the internal drama has gotten, you know, has not gotten any less. I mean, remember, all those departures were just two to three weeks ago, right but it is amazing to know that sam knowing how intense and stressful that was appears to be firmly in control right now oh absolutely i mean they did they did eventually you know they brought him back um and yeah he's definitely in control but the question is like can elon still use this sort of i mean it's interesting that this drama is coming out now I guess my initial reaction was like, well, what does that have to do with Elon's, you know, control of the argument against the nonprofit side of things?

44:25But I guess it's all related because it's all about the structure, basically. And the structure is still not settled.

44:33Ranjan Roy:No, not only. And it's also about the IPO of everyone's respective company invested interest in this, as we were just talking about. But yeah, I think, do you think Elon is doing this for the good of humanity and making sure that nonprofit structures forever remain intact and respectable? No, we know that he's doing it because he invested 30 plus billion dollars and feels betrayed. Wait, 30. In that nonprofit. 30 million. Did I say billion? Million. Yeah. And nowadays, what's the difference? I think it's quite significant, but I won't debate on that. For us normies, but we're talking about fundraising.

45:18Ranjan Roy:Well, I mean, yeah, that's why I don't think$30 million is significant to him at all. I think it's strategic. I think it's related to, I mean, I don't even think it's XAI. I think also, I agree. Actually, yeah, going back to your earlier point, I think he dislikes Sam significantly more than he dislikes Dario. Yeah, exactly. Who is the dark horse that kind of somehow appears and comes? Is it Masa's son? Or who would be the most unlikely character that somehow becomes directly involved in the Elon, Sam, Dario triangle? Satya Nadella. I mean, Satya is going to testify on Monday. And Elon is blaming Microsoft for giving OpenAI the money and sort of pushing this for-profit move.

46:07because sort of it had to pay back Microsoft.

46:10Ranjan Roy:What do you think Satya is going to say or do? I think Satya is going to fully throw OpenAI under the bus. 100%, 1 ,000%, yeah. And we already have this very interesting email chain between Microsoft executives in 2018 trying to decide whether they should invest in OpenAI. And I mean, they eventually did make$13 billion of investments in OpenAI.

46:41and not after like some real hesitancy among the executives. So there's this great, the email chain is actually out there. It was a great Wired article out there talking about it. This is what Satya Nadella's email was to like a whole group of senior leaders about whether they should help funding them. He goes, overall, I can't tell what research they are doing and how if shared with us could help us get ahead. From what Elon is telling everyone, he feels opening eyes at the verge of some big AGI breakthroughs. They clearly are pushing AI at a level none of our first party or third parties are.

47:12Microsoft CTO Kevin Scott said there could be some PR downsides associated with not funding them and having them storm off to Amazon in a huff and shiktok us and Azure on the way out. He goes, I'm highly skeptical of imminent breakthroughs in AGI. In my opinion, they're treating us like a bucket of undifferentiated GPUs, which isn't interesting for us at all. They are not out there saying there's a critical piece of research that we can do only on Azure because of its technical differentiation. If they were, then it could be interesting marketing. Another executive, my worst case scenario is that having them ditch Azure for AWS and badmouth us on the way over.

47:49I mean, it's amazing that this was what they were thinking in Microsoft, but they eventually did it. and maybe credit to them for doing it. But they eventually got so sort of exasperated with OpenAI that we've seen that they've just been pushing further and further away from the company. Do you know what I love about this? What do you love about this?

48:10Ranjan Roy:Everything is comms in the end. Everything. Yes, yes. This validates when I get nervous that I look at everything in the guise of like, that it's communications. but like this is a multi-billion dollar investment. They're talking about Azure's technical differentiation from AWS and all like in the end, they're just worried about how they look and what it's going to look like. I love it. I love this is the secret we are giving to our listeners. We did get, we did get a listener right in and say, you guys are talking about comms too much. And like, fair enough, you know, we take that to heart, but also maybe we're not.

48:51Ranjan Roy:Look at, Behind the curtain. Look behind the curtain. Okay. So look, I think that we will continue to review the evidence and this case as it comes out. Obviously, it's a jury trial. So as much as like what we see in terms of the facts of this case matters, and it does, and I'm not going to shortchange the jury, the emotional appeals, the jury matter a lot. And I think that's what you see both of these camps trying to, you know, sort of push out in public. So we will continue to talk about the case, which should resolve relatively soon. But we'll have another week of explosive testimony, I'm sure, this week.

49:28So Ranjan, I want to finish this week talking a little bit about the layoffs that we're seeing out there. I mean, of course, you have the block cutting, I think, what was it, 40 or 50 percent of the company. This week, you have Coinbase saying that 14 percent of its workforce is going to be gone. And of course, what is the rationale? The rationale is one. And I think Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase, gets credit for this. He says, first, we're currently in a down market and need to adjust our cross structure now so that we emerge from this period, leaner, faster, more efficient for our next phase of growth.

50:03And then ring the bell. What's the other reason? It's AI. AI is changing how we work. Over the past year, I've watched engineers use AI to ship in days. What used to take teams weeks, non-technical teams are now shipping production code. and many of our workflows are being automated. The pace of what's possible with a small focus team has changed dramatically and it's accelerating every day. So we have to basically, he's saying we have to restructure Coinbase to do it. The question I asked at the top of the show is the question I bring to you, which kind of maybe will bring us full circle from our whole discussion today.

50:34You know, is this AI like actually being able to do the work of many people or is it just cope?

50:41Ranjan Roy:Both. This one, I have to go both. Again, all of these companies, just looking at Coinbase's compounding annual growth rate of employees over the last five years. Actually, it's like 10%, which isn't as bad as some of these others. These companies got very big, and especially in big tech and the metas and the Googles of the world. So I do believe just having kind of like, and also Brian Armstrong is an entrepreneur. And I mean, I get this firsthand. Like if your company starts to feel more bureaucratic in general, you would love to be able to kind of flatten it, clean it up, which is what they said they were doing.

51:24Ranjan Roy:I do like the ideas around, I think everyone has to be an individual contributor and can't be only in manager. I think that there can't be more than five levels of hierarchy from the CEO. I think these are really interesting ideas. And I do think like they also like, and it's not just AI too. A lot of these companies just got fat and got bloated and it's that as well. And using AI is kind of the excuse there. But of course, I do see this more and more, and I do think it's right that if you're not getting on board the AI train, I do think there's a reality to it that if people are just being completely resistant to changing the way they're working, companies are going to get more and more and more aggressive.

52:16Very interesting. So there was a post from a meta engineer named Arnav Gupta that is sort of the counter here. And maybe it is the same side of the coin or the other side of the same coin. He wrote this, the layoffs will continue until we learn to use AI. Erge from the Pragmatic Engineer framed this really well. He writes that his point is that a lot of these layoffs could be backwards. They are probably happening because more AI spend doesn't correlate with better business results, at least yet. This is directly from the post. These layoffs, even if they are not because AI is replacing you, and even if they are some form of AI washing, These layoffs are still because of AI, and these layoffs will continue until we learn to use AI.

52:56Until we figure out how the GDP of the world actually grows because of AI, we have to offset the$70 billion of combined open AI and anthropic enterprise revenue of annual token spend by cutting some salaries. Until we figure out how to unblock each other faster, we can always be removed from the org chart itself. basically the argument here is um if ai was going to be you know if ai was going to help the company be more productive then you know they wouldn't need to cut these people um they're cutting the people because they haven't yet found a way to make themselves more productive uh with ai uh and therefore they must cut until they do your thoughts i mean i do think i don't know like i

53:42Ranjan Roy:I see this more and more that the difference between AI makes good people great, like the ones who are kind of taking it on and your level of productivity, but it doesn't necessarily shift the entire organization. So what I do think, and I think this is the right thing to be thinking about, everyone is thinking about what does an organization three to five years down the road look like? And there's going to be a lot of fundamental shifts. I've been thinking about this a lot. The way a corporation is structured as of today, it's not that old. I mean, it's the last 30 to 50 years, but even in the last 15 to 20 years, IT departments were more kind of like a small part of organizations.

54:26Ranjan Roy:And it was the internet and then cloud and these things that really blew up how big IT organizations were. So the idea that companies aren't going to have to completely change the way they're structured in the next few years I think is nonsensical. So people are gonna start figuring it out. And also, I mean, again, going back to incentives and comms, not to bring everything back there. When you're at a moment that the market will reward you for just saying layoffs and AI, I mean, why not? Not to happen, right? Yeah. I mean, I like what this guy Rohit Krishnan had to say also. One bearish sign of all the AI layoffs is that companies couldn't figure out how to produce even more by keeping the people and adding AI.

55:10I'm not entirely sure how to think about this. I mean, ultimately it is. I think this is sort of what you're getting at. It's a change management and a company type of problem, right? As opposed to a technology problem, maybe. I don't know. Or maybe there's a point here. Maybe AI hasn't really increased productivity at all. And we're just deluding ourselves. And Elon Musk and Dario can partner all day long, but it's a bunch of phooey.

55:38Ranjan Roy:See, I think in aggregate, it has not yet because it's still, again, at the enterprise level especially, it's still, other than coding, it's still not widely adopted at any kind of scale, especially on the agentic side. And that's something like it's picking up, but it's not just massively adopted. But I don't know. I think like to me it's kind of if 15 – I remember like in the early days of Microsoft Word and word processing, imagine someone's like, no, I'm just going to write this on a notepad for you and I don't want to use a computer. I don't know. Do you think this is fundamentally different than past technological shifts?

56:24Ranjan Roy:Or I'm not going to do this on email. I'm going to just send a letter. Is it comparable? I do think that it's different than past technological shifts, I would argue. I just think that the tools are more powerful this time around. To me, I guess, yeah. To me, it's still not significantly different than manufacturing automation in the 2000s and what that did to blue collar work in the US and also outsourcing within China. And this is a whole other discussion right now. We only got two minutes left, but to me, it's still, it's just happening in knowledge work right now. So it's a much louder story.

57:05Okay, bottom line then before we go. So you say both, what is it more? Is it more sort of posturing, more AI washing, or is it actually more productivity with AI?

57:18Ranjan Roy:It's more preparing for an AI future. It's not that it's already happened yet, but everyone gets, they got to figure it out now. Otherwise they will have issues later on. I will 50, I will mostly agree with that. Let's just say this. I just said it wasn't comms. I just said it wasn't comms. But I will say this is what I'll nuance, I'll caveat with two of the biggest companies that have done this, crypto companies. And we know crypto's on the outs. So it leads me to believe it might be business realities versus AI improvement. Funny that Brian Armstrong and Jack Dorsey have both seen the light about AI as crypto hits his downturn.

57:59Ranjan Roy:Let's end on that just so we get some angry comments on the way out. All right. There goes the show's ratings. Ronjan, thank you so much. Great to see you. All right. See you next week. See you next week. Thanks, everybody, for listening and watching. And we'll see you next time on Big Technology Podcast. Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same premium wireless for$15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities. So do like I did and have one of your assistant's assistants switch you to Mint Mobile today. I'm told it's super easy to do at mintmobile.com slash switch.

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