How UMG Is Navigating AI, TikTok and the Music Industry’s Next Major Disruption w/ Michael Nash

29:06And the deals that we haven't done, we haven't arrived at a point where we believe that the platform is operating responsibly. And then there are the commercial considerations around what we think is in best interest of our artists. Yeah. And I'm wondering, between Universal and other music companies that are exploring these deals right now, have you started to see a difference in how everyone is thinking about AI? I imagine different companies are reaching different conclusions about what their non-negotiables are. I think that there was probably a wider diversity of perspectives as things evolved.

29:42And as deals get done and there are reference points in the marketplace, you know, create some clarification. Because there's, you know, always the issue for these companies regarding how am I going to get the support of the creative community? How am I going to get the, you know, the music companies on board? How am I going to get the, you know, the publishers on board? What's going to serve the interests of songwriters and recording artists? So I think clarity is achieved as models are developed and new deals are announced that creates some directionality there. I think you're going to see a diversity in terms of products, even in categories like the super fan experience as a tier on top of a subscription service.

30:19You're going to see the services pursuing different directions based on their technology development and based on what they think the commercial opportunity is. you know, ultimately, we think that there is a really big opportunity around addressing super fans and current consumer behavior around content modification. About 30 to 40 percent of all music content on social platforms has been modified by the uploader, sped up, slowed down, mashed up, remixed, especially younger generations. You know, co-creation is seen as an activity that is is kind of deeply interrelated with consumption of content.

31:03And so, you know, we think that there's a real market opportunity there. But more broadly, we think that AI is going to evolve in a way that it will get incorporated into the music experience, and it's going to really revolutionize the music experience. You know, we talk about agentic AI, you know, think about technology that sits close to you that understands like all your signals of intent. Yeah, almost like an assistant. You're an assistant that not only knows all the music that you would be interested in based on your signals, but also the movies and TV shows that you watch, the books you're reading, the countries you're traveling to, but then also contextual listening.

31:39It's on a mobile device. It knows the time of day. It knows whether it's your drive time or it's your workout routine or it's your dinner party. It could know who your guests are at the dinner party, what their preferences are, and who you want to impress. I mean, the ability of AI technology to hyper-personalize the listening experience and enrich the listening experience, some of that comes from advanced technology to understand music. So in the NVIDIA deal, we talked about working with them with their Flamingo platform, which is a music data intelligence platform that's very sophisticated to be able to analyze music to then be able to drive the incorporation of music into that kind of hyper-personalized, customized experience.

32:25So we think that there are a lot of interesting commercial directions, that the playing field is going to be really broad, that you're going to see probably new competitors in the music ecosystem that are bringing in their expertise in AI because AI will be such an important driver in innovation and evolution of the music experience. So while right now it might look like things are getting a little bit more standardized in terms of where the support is going to be and the focus of the product roadmaps for some near-term commercial opportunities, I think that you're going to see a broad spectrum of innovation that is going to be transformative of the entire music experience.

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33:36Spring is here, and the shopping list is long. Time to make a lows run. Buy three bags, get three free of stay green one cubic foot garden soil. Plus, right now, members can earn four times the points on an eligible purchase. Start spring off strong with these deals and more. Our best lineup is here at Lowe's. Valid through 325. While supplies last. Soil offer excludes Alaska and Hawaii. Loyalty program subject to terms and conditions. See Lowe's.com slash terms for details. Subject to change. Point boosters subject to exclusions and more terms apply. One time only offer. One of the things I thought was really interesting that you were talking about in that response was you mentioned hyper-personalization.

34:11That's the thing I've also thought about a lot. And I also feel as a music fan, there's been a bit of a decline in like the monoculture around music. All of us have our different niches that we love. I'm a big fan of indie rock. So I listen to indie rock all the time and I get the best recommendations for indie rock online as algorithms know how to guide me there. I just wonder what that will mean for the top tier of artists, the artists that are signed to UMG or big superstars. Do you feel like there's any fear that the dilution in the long tail of music kind of decreases the superstardom of your biggest money-making stars?

34:47There's no question that digital transformation of the music ecosystem has led to a lot of listening diversity. So people are listening to a lot more artists every month, the monthly active users of the streaming services, because of the nature of access to the content and the ability to discover content. Part of what we've seen is that as the environment gets incredibly noisy and there's a quarter of a billion tracks on services, according to the latest Illuminate report, the vast majority of them largely unconsumed. Like almost 90 percent of them listen to less than a thousand times, like almost 25 percent of them not listen to at all, which that's one of those things like, wait a minute, someone uploaded the content and they themselves did not even check.

35:33I know. I would have at least self-listened to myself like five times, you know? Like over 50 billion tracks not listened to one single time? Okay, well, we'll probably get to this, but I think some of those songs are AI generated. They most definitely are. Yeah. So the fighting fire with fire equation is technology starting out with how digital eliminated barriers to entry. And now AI makes it so easy to create audio content and then upload it to a service. you wind up with an environment where discovery potentially significantly deteriorates. Yeah. And as things advance, I mean, I say potentially, discovery is deteriorating because of this volume of noise.

36:15AI can introduce the solution in terms of focusing on discovery, really understanding the fan, really understanding the user, and delivering the most relevant recommendations, much more sophisticated than the way collaborative filtering works, for example, to try to identify, oh, you're listening to this song, this other person's listening to this song, and this other person's also listening to another song, so maybe you'll like that song. That's collaborative filtering. Collaborative filtering has been an important source of innovation in driving how recommendation works on these platforms. But what we're talking about in terms of this advance in technology is orders of magnitude beyond that in terms of being able to drive discovery, being able to drive really deep personalization.

37:02And then I think the community effect takes over from there. You know, monoculture existed the way that we characterize it in a paradigm that was like, you know, one to many, you know, broadcasting, you know, from sources of content to an audience that's kind of all experiencing the same thing at the same time. And, you know, there are still platforms that operate, you know, that way to, you know, a significant degree. But the digital platforms have really evolved in a way that they're connecting with people around their preferences. And then community is, you know, coming, you know, digitally enabled community is coming in behind that.

37:42And people are connecting, you know, based on maybe more deeply felt preferences than in that monoculture, you know, one to many model, where a lot of people were experiencing the same thing, but not everyone was connecting to it as deeply or in the same way. Do you think, so we're kind of moving into like streaming service territory. And I'm wondering, do you think that streaming services right now are doing enough to fight the onslaught of AI-generated content that's being uploaded on their platforms? We've strongly advocated a view that we characterize as artist-centric, where we called out this issue several years ago.

38:19the deterioration of the user experience, the damage to discovery, problems for new artists breaking through, and also specifically in relationship to AI. So we've been working really hard putting deals in place with the services to advance interest there. Demonetization is one principle. We're on a platform like Spotify. Tracks that are listened to less than 1 ,000 times fall below the monetization threshold. So that helps with, you know, artist royalty, you know, pool, anti-dilution. You know, other services have employed other measures. Services are also removing content. Spotify, you know, announced removal of 75 million, what they characterize as spammy tracks.

39:08Yeah, I was like, what does that even mean? But yeah, yeah, they definitely are starting to remove some stuff. And I also know that y 'all advocated a lot for diluting the amount of money that a noise track makes on the platform. A lot of people were gaming the system by uploading white noise to streaming platforms and then collecting as much money as a Taylor Swift song, essentially. It's interesting to see how the platforms are evolving to address some of the problems that probably no one foresaw at the beginning of streaming, which is taking advantage of the system by using white noise tracks or stuff like that.

39:41Exactly. And the issue is precipitated by sheer volume. Fraud becomes a bigger issue. With respect to AI content, Deezer makes this report. People should understand that the way digital distribution works, all the services are basically getting hit with the same pipes at the same time. So when Deezer says this is the percentage of AI content, that's kind of a safe quantification to generalize around. Their determination is that 70 % of pure AI tracks, and it's now up to like 50 ,000 tracks a day being uploaded to their service, 70 % is pure fraud. meaning fraudsters are creating push-a-button content, and then they're having bot farms ping that content on the services in an effort to divert royalties.

40:31So part of the issue with content oversupply is addressing the problem of fraud. So there's an anti-fraud vector that kind of intersects here, too, in terms of managing the content. So all the services that we're working with are stepping up their efforts. There are different conversations around managing the challenge of sheer volume. I think ultimately, this is an area of huge opportunity for AI being introduced. I characterized it before as fighting fire with fire, using technology to be able to basically pierce through the noise and identify the meaningful content that consumers are going to connect with.

41:14Yeah, it's going to be really interesting to see how AI is able to help us sort through all of the AI, I guess. I imagine this is still early days for UMG, but I imagine it's also been a discussion already. there's going to be some of your artists in the near future, if it hasn't already happened, who want to release a song that is AI assisted. And I'm wondering if you guys have any sort of protocol in place when someone says like, hey, I'm an artist, I'm a legitimate artist, I'm signed to you. I used AI in this and I want to be honest about it. Like, how would you guys deal with that? So first and foremost, we're working with companies like stability and splice in conversations with other companies to develop artist tools in a very art-centric way.

42:01So, you know, we're looking to establish workshops, artist incubators, put the artist in the driver's seat, requirements gathering, you know, creative process calibration, you know, comfort levels around parameterization, meaning are you instructing the model based on like music principles or beyond musicology is it, you know, you're asking for a particular style to the extent you're doing it in the name of an artist. Have the rights been obtained from that artist that are comfortable with? So we're working to develop the tools that we think will address the desire for innovation, but also do it in keeping with the artist's interest.

42:42There's a really important issue that's right in the middle of all this, which is copyright. So right now, Now, pure AI generated output cannot be awarded a copyright. The copyright offices made a very clear determination that prompt generated audio output is not subject to copyright. So there are not a lot of artists that want to put their blood, sweat and tears into creating content that can't be protected, where they can't control the monetization of it. And as soon as they release it, it basically is dust in the wind. Yeah, I mean, well, what frustrates me about that is like the there are fully generated AI songs that are on streaming services right now.

43:22And just because I feel like the problem is detection. We don't really know how we can definitively say this is a fully AI generated sound recording yet. Or if if streaming services do, they're being a little cautious before they implement it. But those songs actually don't even need to be paid out. It is leaking money out of the royalty pool, in my opinion, to have all this money go to fully AI generated tracks that are being streamed. Well, that's a really important point. So I would quibble a little bit and say, I think for pure AI-generated content, for example, Deezer reports out based on their technology and that detection.

43:53Yeah. So, and I've also heard technologists that go way over my head quickly critique the efficacy, but, you know, we're talking about, you know, is it perfect or is it like almost perfect? So for pure AI-generated content, you know, AI assists creation, you know, better detection and understanding more gray area business decisions there that you referred to. So I think that there are issues around trying to understand the nature of the content. But it's a really important point, the protections that we put into agreements, just speaking on behalf of UMG. So we have AI content anti-dilution protection.

44:32So pure AI generated content in our DSP deals. You know, it's kind of it's a standard that we've implemented across many, many partnerships does not dilute the artist royalty pool. And then how do you do that, though? Like, how do you make sure that it's not getting diluted? Does that make sense? Yeah. I mean, it's a requirement of the platform. So they have to operate ethically. You know, agreements are always subject to review and audit. But, you know, we're working with ethical parties that have entered into agreement in good faith. But also they have an interest in that too because their business succeeds because of their alignment with the creative community.

45:09And ultimately, I mean, think about it. If you're a music service and you're flooded with content that does not have any copyright protection, ultimately all this content is everywhere. And it is essentially valueless because it can't be monetized. who's going to pay a monthly subscription charge to use your service to access that content. So the value associated with content and the protection of copyright in that context is not something where just the music companies and the artists care about it and the services don't care about it. You might say, well, there are shades of gray there, but there's alignment in the ecosystem around what's good for artists and what's good for the protection of their content is also good for business.

45:59There are so many complexities here. I think that part of the challenge then, and you asked me before, well, so what are we doing and what are we advocating? I think that if you look at AI content creation, our artist Louis Capaldi, in a partnership with Google DeepMind and YouTube, developed a really incredible music video for a song, Something in the Heavens. And it was, you know, it was AI generated. There were thousands and thousands of creative decisions that were made about every single aspect of the content development. So when I think about that and that experiment, conversations that we've had with AI tools development partners.

46:52You know, we think about being able to document in the creative process using AI all of the human authorship, all of those decisions. And ultimately, maybe there's a conversation, you know, with the Copyright Office about rethinking copyright as AI evolves. So when we're talking about this artist-centric, you know, AI-assisted creative process where AI tools are utilized, And it's not just in terms of the iterative process of working out ideas that you go in the studio and record. That's probably the dominant paradigm right now. But incorporating elements of AI output, the way that drum machines and synthesizers were incorporated in previous decades and became part of the toolkit for artists.

47:38I think that there is a very interesting, evolving conversation around how you think about copyright and the evolution of copyright with respect to AI tools. But that really needs to happen, because if that doesn't happen, you're going to see a real limitation on artists that are creating content with lots of commercial value wanting to use AI tools when there's no protection for the content at all. Yeah. And I want to circle back to y 'all's deal with UDO because I really do think it's like an important one. And I know one of the principles that is very important to you guys is the idea of opt-ins.

48:14So that means that the artist gets to decide whether or not they participate in the data set. How many songs do you guys need to get to opted in from UMG in order for this deal to be sound and for UDO to be able to continue with this new product? It's a very good question. We've thought a lot about it. And there's no simple answer. I think there needs to be a critical mass of content artists that bands want to connect with to prove out the principle. And then once you prove out the principle, and there are great experiences, I think that there will be momentum around more artists be comfortable and opting in.

48:53We're in a process right now of reaching out through our operating companies, our labels and our international opcos, talking to our artist roster about opting in to these services like Udio. And, you know, we think that it's essential to have these conversations, you know, to work to identify the artists are ready to lean in. lean in. There will obviously definitely be artists that will want to wait and see. There will be artists that are not interested in having that kind of fan interaction. But we think there will be a lot of artists that are going to want to be early adopters, early supporters of this product construct that will want to engage with their fans in this way.

49:38And I think there are two other imperatives here that are operating. One is what I said before, which is this is already happening. There's so much content on social media that has been modified by the uploader, but the artist is not really, is not participating the way that they would participate in one of these services. Like one of those sped up, slowed down remixes. Remix, smashed up. And, you know, the artists don't have any control in that environment. And we're talking about very, very controlled environments that really advance the artist's interest. And the other thing that's really critical to keep in mind is it's not a choice between AI or not AI.

50:14That goes back to the futility of like fighting technological change, which, you know, is also counterproductive. There's 50 ,000 tracks being uploaded every day. AI is kind of a fact of life in the music ecosystem right now. What we're focused on is the artist-centric principle incorporated into new deals that enable services to roll out new platforms, new service offerings to fans of the artists that provide new kinds of experience to establish the principle of licensed products that are aligned with the artist community, being competitively superior, being great experience for fans, working on those principles that drive the economics of the ecosystem that I referred to before, the artist-fan connection, and fans wanting to participate in music culture.

51:05And I think the other component that's a backdrop that we all have to recognize, there's significant level of force being applied at governmental levels towards compromise of copyright. Yes. There is a position that basically says, it's too challenging to figure out how to license copyrighted content. And the only way that we're going to advance innovation is if we basically set aside, you know, copyright principles in order to let the technologists do whatever it is they need to do. And that's obviously a terrible outcome for creative industries in general, bad outcome for the music industry, terrible outcome for our artists and songwriters.

51:53So we think it's extremely important right now, and we're reaching out to the artist community for their support to establish not only the viability, but the competitive superiority of the licensed models to demonstrate the ability to license. It's part of what has led us to focus on initiating so many new partnerships to establish a lot of avenues that prove out the concept of licensing as a foundation for innovation. Copyright's not the enemy of innovation. Copyright, which brings the artists in with their participation, with their creativity, and the full set of rights associated with copyright, their name and likeness rights, for example, importantly.

52:34That can create competitively superior products. That can really unlock a lot of value in the ecosystem. So our focus right now with respect to how we're thinking about these issues and how they play out and the importance of resolving litigation with an UDO and reversing course into a licensed partnership. It's checking a lot of different boxes, if you will, enable me to be a little bit reductive. It's addressing a lot of different strategic objectives that we have in terms of establishing for our artists, pass forward that advance their interests, but also demonstrating that copyright works.

53:15Yeah, that's interesting. I didn't really think about the aspect of trying to prove that the licensed models are actually valuable and could be competitive in an environment. But, you know, by trying to get enough opt-ins to make these things work, I am curious. I think there's probably some artists because contracts evolve over time with record companies and publishers. I imagine there are some older contracts where they never foresaw any of this technology happening. Maybe these artists are even deceased by this point or you've lost touch with them. Are there some artists that are deep in the back catalog where you actually don't need to have them opt in that can be automatically applied?

53:54And would UMG ever opt in those older catalog? We tend to take a very, very artist sensitive, artist friendly, artist centric approach with respect to all this technology innovation. So, you know, there have been a number of new developments with technology, you know, over the course of the last several decades. So, you know, we've routinely had conversations, you know, with legacy artists, with the states of legacy artists, you know, about support for new formats and new opportunities in the digital ecosystem. This is going to be a continuation of that. But could you opt in older artists based on where their contracts are at?

54:37Like, could you just opt them in without asking? And would you guys ever do that? We're talking to everybody with respect to opting. And for any of these platforms, for any invocation of our, you know, artist content, you know, any reference to our artist content, we are seeking the approval of the artists or the entity that represents the artist. I think that's the clearest way to articulate it. Got it. So I think we're bending over backwards to have the conversations that we think we should be having with the creative community that we represent. And by the way, we're talking about, I've talked a lot about recording artists.

55:19That's true, obviously, of songwriters who are very, very important to the evolution of all this innovation. So we're taking the position with respect to the artists that are going to be featured in these products that we want to work on the opt-ins. Yeah, yeah. I mean, I can't even imagine the process of reaching out to every single person in the UMG catalog to start this process. Because, I mean, y 'all have millions of songs. I don't know how many millions, but it's five million? I don't know. Something like that. It's a lot. It's a big undertaking for your team, I'm sure. Between recorded music and publishing, it is millions, yes.

55:56Do you guys have a deadline that you're working towards? We're looking at the launch of these services. They've announced their objectives as this year. So we're working to organize what's required on our end to be able to support those timelines. I could talk to you for actually hours about all of this stuff. And I have so many more questions. I'll clear my schedule. Yeah, I know. We could just keep it rolling. but um i i do want to kind of start uh ending off this with a little bit of a game of sorts um so this would be this is before make me a playlist actually i'm throwing in something else for you so he knows that make me a playlist is my ending to every show but i do want to throw in one thing where i'm going to ask you to rank these tech phenomenons on a scale of one to ten as to how disruptive they are for the music business.

56:47So one being not a big deal, not that disruptive, don't need to worry about it. Ten being it's absolutely a big deal. Everyone needs to be paying attention. So first things first, scale of one to ten, how big of a deal is artificial streaming and streaming fraud? And so by disruptive, I mean, we mean, because there's a version of disruptive that's like a good thing. You know, there's constructive disruption. So we're talking about damaging disruption? Yes. Damaging disruption. So artificial streaming on a scale of one to 10, I would say four. Okay. AI artists making their way onto Spotify, TikTok, and Billboard charts.

57:25I would go with a one on that. I'll go two because some people think it's a big deal. It's not a big deal. But because there's a perception, I'll go with two. Okay. NFTs.

57:38Is there a negative number that's possible here? Negative 10. Yeah, what a time. 2021, 2022, peak NFT. That's when I started writing about tech and I was like, I can't do another artist created NFT press release. I'm very glad that that one's over. TikTok changing ownership in the US, scale of one to 10. It's so hard to calibrate because we don't know. I mean, I would say that you'd have to put a question mark like up against like a two or three because we just don't know. Yeah. AI powered deep fakes of artists. It's so unpleasant that it probably deserves like a higher number right now. And especially the ones that violate the artist's brand and are like deeply disrespectful and, you know, just like have no place in the digital ecosystem.

58:32So, you know, on that, I mean, it's not like a quantitative thing of like how bad it is. But in terms of how bad it is, it's really bad. I'd give that one a seven. Yeah. OK, that was good. Nice. Okay, now we are on to Make Me a Playlist. This is how I end up every show on On the Record. I always tell my guests to come prepared with their answers to these three prompts. And he is cheating, and he has his notes out for this very reason. He said that this was actually very stressful. I'm sorry, Michael, that I put you through that. This was very challenging. This probably took the most prep of any part of the process of getting ready for this podcast.

59:08Okay, so first things first, what's a song that you can no longer gatekeep? This is a little bit of a cheat. Okay. Because Jeff Tweedy solo project, Jeff Tweedy of Wilco, had a triple album solo project. And I think it was actually pretty well received. The very last track on that triple album, a track called Enough, I think it's just so great. Wow. Deep, dark, real. And it sounds amazing in high res. and it kind of came and went. I think I saw a performance on one of the late night shows of it and I thought it's just like it's such an amazing song and I was just surprised that it wasn't more of a thing.

59:52It's really a powerful track. Very last track on the triple album of Jeff Tweedy. Enough. Enough by Jeff Tweedy. Okay. I'm going to have to look that up because I love Jeff Tweedy. I love Wilco, but I don't think I've explored all of his solo stuff really. So I'm going to have to check that out. Okay. Second, what is a favorite throwback, which leaves the entire world's catalog of music just a little bit older? This one's really tough because when you've lived a long time, the soundtrack of your life is packed with favorites. And I have a special place in my heart for my idols that I've been fortunate enough to have a professional association with.

1:00:30So I could give you a Bowie or a Bono or a Neil Young track. I'm going to go with a Bob Dylan track. Okay. One of over 600 songs that he's authored. I mean, it's so incredibly prolific. It's just like, it's unbelievable. And like so many great songs. But the epic and probably semi-autobiographical Joker Man track from his 80s album, Infidels, is absolutely a favorite throwback. That is a great selection. Finally, what is a guilty pleasure for you? So I thought a lot about this one. But then I realized that there was an obvious choice. Amy Mann covered Rainy Days and Mondays for the soundtrack of The Chair Company.

1:01:15Now, if you saw The Chair Company on HBO, a really, really twisted, dark, strange show. and Amy Mann has done some interesting covers for, obviously she covered one for the Magnolia soundtrack a couple decades ago. It's this killer combo of pop sentimentality and it becomes really dark because the show's kind of dark and Amy Mann brings a kind of gravitas to it. So it's a Carpenter's pop song, Rainy Days and Mondays. But I encourage people to check it out if you haven't already. Wow. Yeah, I've not seen the chair company. I've heard a lot about it. So I'm going to have to listen to it in context and out of context and see how it holds up.

1:01:59Well, Michael Nash, again, I could talk to you for hours. Thank you so much for coming to On The Record and dispelling all of this information about music and tech. I really appreciate it. It's been an absolute pleasure. Great questions. Thank you. It's tax season. And at LifeLock, we know you're tired of numbers. But here's a big one you need to hear. Billions. That's the amount of money and refunds the IRS has flagged for possible identity fraud. Now here's another big number, 100 million. That's how many data points LifeLock monitors every second. If your identity is stolen, we'll fix it guaranteed.

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1:03:10Thank you so much again to Michael Nash, the Chief Digital Officer at Universal Music Group, for coming today and talking to us about all of the crazy technology things that are coming our way. All right, now it's time for our chart roundup as we do every single week. So let's figure out this week's biggest movers and shakers on the Hot 100. Here is the Hot 100 Top 10 for the week dated January 31st. Coming in at number 10 this week is Opalite by Taylor Swift. End of Beginning by Joe comes in at nine. And the eighth spot is Folded by Kehlani. Seven this week is Back to Friends by Somber. Six is Choose in Texas by Ella Langley.

1:04:01Five is Ordinary by Alex Warren. And the fourth slot is Golden by Huntrix. third this week is the fate of Ophelia by Taylor Swift the second spot is man I need by Olivia Dean and finally coming in at number one for its second week in the top spot on the chart it's I just might by Bruno Mars all right that concludes this week's episode of On The Record, a music business podcast from Billboard and Sickbird Productions. If you liked today's show and you want to keep up with us and follow along for more, you can follow us on Instagram at BillboardOnTheRecord. You can also catch us on Billboard's other social channels on our main account.

1:04:52And if you liked today's show, please give us a thumbs up, a like, a rating. All of those things help our show to reach new audiences and to grow even bigger. Again, I am your host, Kristen Robinson, and tune in next week for another peek behind the curtain of the music business. I'll see you then.