Gala Shooting Suspect Charged With Trying to Assassinate Trump

27 Apr 2026 · 30 min · 20 chapters

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In short

The episode is a multi-part Bloomberg Business Week Daily news roundup. First, it discusses the charging of a gala/dinner shooting suspect accused of trying to assassinate President Trump. Miles Miller (Bloomberg News Senior National Reporter) says authorities expect a formal complaint shortly; the suspect allegedly traveled cross-country by train from California, brought weapons, and charged through a magnetometer. Miller highlights Secret Service layers, including plainclothes agents posing as waiters, and claims the Secret Service stopped him on the first floor and kept attendees safe despite shots fired. Second, it features Angela Stent (American Enterprise Institute; former U.S. intelligence and State Department policy planner) on Russia-Iran ties: Russia provides intelligence and drone/weapon support, benefits economically, and balances relations with Trump while complicating U.S. ceasefire efforts. Third, airline and Fed segments: Thomas Black (Bloomberg Opinion) argues airlines need M&A and a “low-cost champion” rather than bailouts; Stuart Paul (Bloomberg Economics) weighs Fed Chair Jay Powell’s transition and rate risks from prolonged energy-driven inflation.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Security Measures and the Assassination Attempt

3:02 to 5:07

Miles Miller discusses the security measures surrounding the assassination attempt on President Trump.

“Now, you know, to us who were in the room, it may seem like a situation while we just walked through a magnetometer, we took the things out of our pockets and put them down.”

Analyzing Russia-Iran Relations

5:07 to 7:18

Angela Stent provides insights into the evolving partnership between Russia and Iran amidst geopolitical tensions.

“I mean, they stopped him on the first floor.”

Analyzing the JCPOA and Iran's Nuclear Development

14:06 to 14:40

Discussion on the prospects of a new agreement similar to the JCPOA regarding Iran's nuclear capabilities.

“Maybe it'll have somewhat different terms, but just trying to restrict the pace at which Iran can develop a nuclear weapons system.”

Introduction of Angela Stent

14:40 to 14:56

Introducing Angela Stent and her extensive background in intelligence and foreign policy.

“Her book, Putin's World, Russia Against the West and with the rest.”

Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Overview

14:56 to 15:11

Overview of the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast and listening options.

“This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast.”

Royal Arrival at Joint Base Andrews

15:11 to 15:43

Details on the arrival of King Charles and Queen Camilla at the White House.

“So a lot of airline news that's been coming at us lately.”

United Airlines Mergers and Financial Assistance

15:43 to 16:20

Discussion on United Airlines CEO's merger talks and financial assistance requests.

“So just keeping a watch on that, because that is also on the agenda in the nation's capital, and of course, for the president of the United States.”

Spirit Airlines and the Flawed Business Model

16:20 to 16:56

Exploration of Spirit Airlines' challenges and CEO Scott Kirby's views on its business model.

“And then you've got, of course, maybe something going on with a rescue for Spirit Aviation from the U.S.”

The Need for a Low-Cost Airline Champion

16:56 to 17:58

Discussion on the necessity of having a strong low-cost airline to compete with large carriers.

“Well, writing about the industry, Thomas Black, a Bloomberg opinion columnist, he writes about the industrial and transportation sectors.”

Challenges Faced by Low-Cost Carriers

17:58 to 19:12

Analyzing the challenges faced by low-cost airlines and the importance of scaling.

“whether you call it basic economy or whatever, it does seem like they have that product.”
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Potential Bailouts for Low-Cost Airlines

19:12 to 20:06

Examining the implications of potential bailouts for ultra-low-cost carriers.

“And then buying planes, when you're buying 50 or 100 planes, you're going to get a much better deal than if you're buying 10 planes.”

Government Involvement in Airline Operations

20:06 to 21:39

Discussing the risks of government involvement in airline operations and the capitalist model.

“I think the key, again, is consolidation.”

Transition to Next Segment

21:39 to 22:26

Transitioning to the next segment of the podcast, teasing upcoming discussions.

“Hey, Thomas, we've been dying to talk to you about your column, so thank you so much.”

Federal Reserve Update and Leadership Changes

22:34 to 22:54

Insight into the expected changes at the Federal Reserve amidst ongoing political drama.

“Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m.”

Jay Powell's Position and Future Speculations

22:54 to 24:12

Analyzing Jay Powell's future as Fed Chair amidst speculations of leadership changes.

“So we got a lot to get to with Stuart Paul.”

Investor Confidence and Market Movements

24:12 to 26:11

Discussion on the actions taken by Saba Capital Management to improve investor confidence.

“There have been instances, well, going back before the Treasury Secretary was removed from the FOMC, there were separate responsibilities for FOMC chair, for the Board of Governors.”

Impacts of Oil Prices on Inflation

26:11 to 28:09

Exploring how rising oil prices influence inflation and economic outlook.

“with some confidence, but certainly something we're keeping a watch on.”

Discussion on Assurance in Administration

28:09 to 28:39

The conversation explores the assurance and expectations from leadership in the current administration.

“And I also I think it's fair of me to ask, what's the assurance of such in this administration?”

Impact of Higher Oil Prices on Economy

28:39 to 31:00

The segment delves into the effects of prolonged high oil prices on inflation and economic growth.

“But your view on rates through the rest of the year, if this conflict is prolonged?”

Monetary Policy and Inflation Choices

31:00 to 31:58

A discussion on how central bankers perceive inflation and their responsibilities in managing it.

“It was both a demand and supply shock, right?”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

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2:02We also lean on Miles Miller. He's Bloomberg News Senior National Reporter, and he joins us here in the Bloomberg Business Week studio. The reason And we are talking to Miles for a couple of reasons. One, in just about 30 minutes, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, FBI Director Cash Patel, U.S. Attorney Dean Perra will hold a press conference at the DOJ following the initial appearance in federal court of the suspected White House correspondent's dinner at Gunman. That suspect has been charged with trying to assassinate the president. What's the latest? Yeah, so we expect to get the formal complaint in just a few moments now just about what they've learned from doing their checks on his background, checks in his room.

2:41And he's not cooperating with authorities. He's not cooperating with authorities. What we know is that he traveled cross-country from California on train, brought weapons with him. And really, I mean, you see the video, he charged through the magnetometer there. Now, they have a very layered security plan. We have a story coming out shortly on the terminal that really talks about how the Secret Service plans for all this. Now, you know, to us who were in the room, it may seem like a situation while we just walked through a magnetometer, we took the things out of our pockets and put them down. And, you know, that may look like lax security, but it's the stuff you don't see.

3:15All of the folks who are in the, who are in the stairways, there were folks there, speaking to a source, who may look like they're a waiter, but actually is Secret Service. and some of those folks dropped their trays and pulled up guns and were able to start getting their people out of there. Safe to say, I mean, there's always a lot of security at this event. Typically the president's there, but Trump has not, President Trump has not been there since his return or his first term in the White House. So this was a different event. And I think about that change and it seems like they were prepared.

3:54And I guess we're going to get an update on safety also in terms of coverage there. Right. Yeah. You know, it was the first time Trump had been back in some time. And I spoke to his folks about that and they said. As president. Never. Right. Right. First as president. The reason was because America 250, he wanted to be able to show a unified front. You saw the cabinet secretaries there. They actually walked in with the cabinet secretary. I cover Mark Wayne Mullen and they had their security around them, but it did not feel like it was onerous. And I've been in some of those events. And I asked the Secret Service, why wasn't this a national security event?

4:24And I said, because there are so many things that go into planning this. This hotel, which has been nicknamed the Hinkley Hotel after the shooting of Ronald Reagan, has so many hidden features for the president that make it sort of an interesting place to do this. But when you are one of those people who are in the room, who was on the table like I was, you start thinking, okay, was this secure? But you have to remember the Secret Service's mission is to protect the president and to protect their protectees. But it's the bonus that we get the protection as well. But for all intents and purposes, I mean, despite the fact that the gunman was able to get close and there were shots fired, the Secret Service did its job and did keep everybody safe.

5:07Right. I mean, they stopped him on the first floor. You know, he charged and they stopped him. And, you know, in speaking to this source earlier today, he's like, if he would have gone down the stairs, he'd meet even more firepower. Every level you go to, you get more and more firepower. and you get more and more agents. And so it's, you know, mentally, because you're there and you're in shock, you think, okay, was I safe? But it's the things that you don't see that kind of make you really think and go, oh, wow, you know, the waiter thing is just, you know. And Trump said that at the press conference on Saturday and people did not pick up on that.

5:41He said, people sitting at your table that you didn't know, you probably didn't know that they were an agent. It takes me back to 9-11. And like after 9-11, that you would have someone on the plane that was... Still do have air marshals. Yeah, I assume they are, right? And so... Never met one. No, never met one. I know of an active air marshal. Let's just say that. All right, Miles Miller, thank you so much. Of course, he's Bloomberg News Senior National Reporter. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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6:56Join us for solutions-driven discussions, interactive workshops, and networking opportunities. Learn more at bloomberglive.com slash SBS-Singapore. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragachie telling Russian President Vladimir Putin that bilateral relations will continue to be strengthened. This is according to NAR News. President Putin expressed hopes that Iranian people under management of the new leader will overcome this difficult period of tests and the peace will come.

7:38Russian state television showed all of this in a live broadcast footage of the meeting, which we think is just kind of interesting against everything else that's going on. Yeah, we were talking about this on an editorial call, and we said we got to speak to Angela Stent about this. She's senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. She's also the author of many books, including Putin's World, Russia Against the West, and With the Rest. She's a former national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council. She served to Carol in the Office of Policy Planning at the U.S.

8:07Department of State. So, Angela, come on in. Tim and I have been talking about this a lot. What caught our attention was, you know, this Iranian foreign minister meeting up with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In a previous segment, our own Ellen Milligan, who covers national security here, in talking with a British official, she said, you know, what they are hearing is President Putin's hidden hand is behind a lot of this conflict. How do you see it? Well, certainly Russia has been backing Iran since the United States and Israel. attacked Iran. It's been providing the Iranians with intelligence on American targets, among other things.

8:49It's been providing the Iranians with an updated version of the Shah head drones, which the Iranians first provided the Russians to use in Ukraine. Russians have now modernized them, so they've been giving them weapons. And so they've certainly been backing them. And of course, Russia has been really benefiting from this war because of high oil prices and because the sanctions on Russian oil have been waived for one month by the United States and then just for a second month. So the Russian economy isn't doing that well, but they're certainly benefiting from this economically. On the other hand, Putin doesn't want to alienate President Trump.

9:30He still wants the president to force Ukraine to give up territory to Russia that Russia doesn't control. So for Putin, it's a balancing act. But he's really trying to show that Russia is still a player in the Middle East, having certainly lost out in Venezuela, of course, in Syria, before all of this happened. So he's playing this, I would say, pretty well at the moment. So, Dr. Sten, you think he's successfully showing the world that Russia is a player in the Middle East, at least a player in Iran right now? I think he is. I mean, Russia has certainly lost some of its clout in the Middle East because of events over the past couple of years.

10:11And certainly because the US and Israel were able to do this without obviously informing Russia. So I think what Russia is trying to do also is to show, yes, we're still here. We may be, you know, bogged down in Ukraine on the one hand, but we're still a player in the Middle East. So it's kind of, and I think the other thing we have to remember is that Russia has also cultivated good ties with the Gulf states. It's got the OPEC plus with Saudi Arabia and other countries. And so it's a little bit difficult for Russia, to the extent that these Gulf partners of Russia have now been attacked by Iran.

10:46And as we've seen, these Gulf partners are now signing agreements with Ukraine to give them the technology to improve their, you know, to improve their own drones. So what is the investing public, the US public need to understand about this relationship between Iran and Russia in particular? Because I'm also wondering, how does Russia complicate any US efforts towards a ceasefire? Well, I think they have to understand that this is still an important partnership for Russia. And will stay that way, Angela? Will stay that way? I think it will stay that way because the Iranians are going to probably be more dependent on Russia, depending on how all of this works out at the end.

11:30So, yes, that's there to say. And as long as the Russians support the Iranians, they've also been able to push back against the U.S. Now we're in a ceasefire period. Straits of Hormuz are obviously closed. But that partnership is going to remain. Yes. Has this war been net-net good for Russia, apart from the higher oil prices, the sanctions easing, but also on its own war and its invasion of Ukraine, attention has shifted from that part of the world in Eastern Europe to the Middle East right now? How does Putin view that internally? Yeah, I think that's also a bonus for Russia. The US has turned its attention away from that conflict.

12:12So I said before that, you know, the Russians would like Trump to force Zelensky to give up territory. That I don't think it's going to happen anytime soon. So from the Russian point of view, it's okay not to have the US involved in negotiations at the moment, because they can just continue to what they're trying to do is to take back more territory. They're not doing very well at the moment. Ukrainians are doing much better. But yes, I think for them, it's a bonus that that attention has turned away from that conflict. Angela, does Russia want the uranium, the enriched uranium? I think it does.

12:47So in 2015, they took the enriched uranium after the Obama administration had agreed on the JCPOA, that agreement with Iran that the Russians were also involved with. So the Russians would be quite happy to take that. But of course, so far, the Trump administration has said that it doesn't accept that. And I think President Trump has said he wants the US to take it. Over the last few years, when we've had a chance to talk to you, we've asked you how you think the war between Russia's invasion of Ukraine will end. I'm going to ask you now about the war between the US and Iran, and certainly Israel there as well.

13:23How does that war end? That's a much more difficult one, because, you know, there has been regime change in Iran, but you have a regime that's, you know, even more radicalized. And Iran, so far, looks as if it's done pretty well out of this conflict, despite the assassinations and the loss of weapons and things like that, because it's now controlling the Straits of Formuz. So I think in In the end, there will have to be, well, there are negotiations, there'll have to be more negotiations. But I think it's unlikely that the Iranians are going to, you know, say that they will totally give up their nuclear weapons program.

14:05And in the end, you may have to come back to an agreement that's somewhat similar to the JCPOA, the agreement that the Trump administration pulled out in its first term. Maybe it'll have somewhat different terms, but just trying to restrict the pace at which Iran can develop a nuclear weapons system. And just let's not forget China's out there, too, who, of course, is allied with Iran and Russia. No doubt about it. Angela, thank you so much. So glad we could do this with you once again. Angela Stent, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Her book, Putin's World, Russia Against the West and with the rest.

14:43She's a former national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council. She also served in the Office of Policy Planning at the U.S. Department of State, which is just so many reasons why we lean on her for this. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 2 p.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say, Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130. So a lot of airline news that's been coming at us lately. We've got our eye on an airplane at Joint Base Andrews right now.

15:20We do. King Charles and Queen Camilla of the UK have landed there, and they will be headed to the White House. So there's a live shot. We're just waiting. Of course, the flags of the UK, you can see clearly, and just waiting for the door to pop open. They are going to be greeted by the U.S. Chief of Protocol, Monica Crowley, and British Ambassador to the UK, Sir Christian Turner. So just keeping a watch on that, because that is also on the agenda in the nation's capital, and of course, for the president of the United States. Well, speaking of planes, United Airlines CEO, Scott Kirby, confirmed that he approached American Airlines and that talks have ended, this after laying out the virtues of a merger that he said could have strengthened corporate America and won approval from regulators.

16:04Kirby published a lengthy statement on why it all made sense, despite questions, or rather opposition, from the White House and American. Right. And then you've got Budget Airlines there asking the Trump administration for about$2.5 billion in financial assistance to help combat increasing jet fuel prices. And then you've got, of course, maybe something going on with a rescue for Spirit Aviation from the U.S. government. Got to point out on Spirit, Scott Kirby, CEO of United, had some thoughts on that when he spoke with Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowitz on April 22nd. The problems at Spirit predate the run-up in fuel.

16:38This was a fundamentally flawed business model that I've been going back into the last administration saying it's going to fail because the business model doesn't work. And so I think the spike in fuel prices just moves forward by a couple of months. All right. Scott Kirby, CEO of United, speaking with Lisa Bromowitz of Bloomberg. That was back on April 22nd. Well, writing about the industry, Thomas Black, a Bloomberg opinion columnist, he writes about the industrial and transportation sectors. Previously, a Bloomberg news reporter covering logistics, manufacturing, private aviation. He joins us this afternoon from Dallas.

17:08So you write this column that got our attention about how U.S. airlines, they don't need a bailout in your view. They need an M &A shakeup. Why? Well, we have four large airlines that serve the full service market. And then we have the low cost airlines that are in disarray. My argument is that we need a low cost champion. And we shouldn't look at the low cost industry as needing competition within that space itself. There should be one low cost champion that competes with these four large airlines. What does it take to be a low cost champion? Because it looks like it's a really challenging place to be if you're not one of the big four airlines right now, because these big four airlines are offering those lower cost options to consumers.

17:58whether you call it basic economy or whatever, it does seem like they have that product. They do. But they also have to have feeder airlines. A lot of them have regional feeder airlines that feed into a hub so that you can get on to your destination. So you're having to change a plane, essentially, at a big hub, whereas a low cost carrier can offer you a direct flight. So that's one of the competitive advantages. But they need scale. A low-cost carrier has to have scale so that can drive costs down. I mean, the reality of, you know, Thomas, I always think about this, and I think it was at Warren Buffett who had some really strong thoughts about the airline industry.

18:41I mean, man, it's expensive. Planes are expensive. Fuel is expensive. People are expensive. I mean, I say this all the time. I sit in a plane and I think about, okay, how much is everybody roughly paying? How do they make money? By consolidating, is it easier for airlines to make money and be profitable? Yeah, scale helps you drive down all kinds of costs, maintenance costs. Anything that you buy in bulk can be driven down from uniforms and stuff like that. And then buying planes, when you're buying 50 or 100 planes, you're going to get a much better deal than if you're buying 10 planes. So the scale can help you drive down costs.

19:24Again, in that lower cost market that we have, we had one airline that graduated from that, which was Southwest, but they have a unique real estate play, right? They're in these secondary airports that nobody was paying attention to. And they carved out that market niche and they graduated not quite into a full service airline. That's what they're trying to do right now with this big transformation. So there is that space for a low cost carrier. But again, they have to fly bare bones. I think people are willing to take a bare bones flight if they can get a pretty cheap ticket. If the U.S., Thomas, were to provide some sort of bailout or some sort of lifeline to these ultra low cost carriers, would that be throwing good money after bad?

20:15It could be. Yes. I think the key, again, is consolidation. Frontier and Spirit had a deal to merge. Unfortunately, there was another airline that kind of butted in and drove up the price and the deal fell apart. There was a deal and then the DOJ squashed it. But I do think that those two airlines can consolidate and try to build some scale there and have that low cost option. Because if you don't have that low cost option, then suddenly the full service airlines don't have any kind of breaks on raising prices in that main cabin seat. So right now they can drive down that main cabin seat price and kind of subsidize it with what they're making at the front of the plane.

20:58Yeah. So that makes it very difficult for the low cost carrier. Thomas, just got about 30, 40 seconds here. A big mistake if the U.S. government does some kind of bailout of spirit or some kind of financial assistance to these lower discount value airlines. Is that a mistake in your view? Now, they might have to bail them out just to keep them afloat, but I wouldn't want the government taking a stake in operating airline. I don't think I don't think that fits within our capitalist model. Yeah, it's hard to get my head around it, too, if you believe in capitalism, right? You know, stuff goes down, stuff, you know.

21:33And the government's not a very good operator of something. And new airlines come on. Hey, Thomas, we've been dying to talk to you about your column, so thank you so much. We know it's later where you are. Actually, it's early where you are. I was thinking you were in London. I don't know why I thought he was in London. Maybe it's because the British King's here. Thomas Black is Bloomberg Opinion Columnist. He's joining us from Dallas, where it's actually earlier on this Monday. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

22:26Visit BloombergLive.com forward slash InvestHongKong to learn more. Supporting sponsor Deutsche Bank. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. That official is expected to leave rates unchanged this week. Gathering, though, fair to say it's being overshadowed by the latest twists and a political drama surrounding the leadership handover at the Fed. So we got a lot to get to with Stuart Paul. He's Bloomberg Economics, U.S.

23:01and Canada economist. He joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. If you were a betting man, would you bet that this is the last meeting that Fed Chair Jay Powell will preside over? I would bet that this is the last meeting that he presides over as chair, both as the Board of Governors and as chair of the FOMC. Oh, interesting. But I wouldn't start giving out odds on this. I think that it's the sort of thing that right now is probably closer to 6535 and not some sort of immortal lock. I think that we need to remember that the FOMC chair is a position that's voted on by the members of the FOMC.

23:38It is a distinct role from chairman of the Board of Governors. Kevin Warsh will be confirmed to eventually become chairman of the Board of Governors and a member of the Board of Governors itself, replacing Stephen Myron. But then it's incumbent upon the members of the FOMC to elect him chair in Jay Powell's stead. And so I think that it's very possible that this is the last press conference. In fact, I think it's probable that this is the last press conference that we get from Jay Powell. But there are additional procedural steps. So members could actually say no? It's very possible. Has that ever happened?

24:13There have been instances, well, going back before the Treasury Secretary was removed from the FOMC, there were separate responsibilities for FOMC chair, for the Board of Governors. So throughout the long history of the Fed, there has been a lot of evolution. And during that evolution, it's become commonplace to have both the board chair and the FOMC chair be the same person. But there is no reason statutorily that that must be the case. And in such a politically heated environment, and given the fact that Kevin Warsh has been so aggressive in talking about his expected treatment of members of the Federal Reserve and staff, I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of a transition period.

25:01But again, that's not the odds-on favorite case. It's an edge case to be aware of. And so while I think that this will be the last press conference we hear from Jay Powell, I would not be surprised to see him participating in a prolonged transition. Well, go ahead. Just hang on, just because we continue to get some headlines. And Seva Capital Management reports an expansion of its investment activities into both public and private BDCs, business development corporations, and interval funds to address retail investor liquidity needs. So the firm deployed$40 million in FSKKR capital, marking the first major BDC investment.

25:43Invested$75 million in Blue Rock Private Real Estate Fund at 30 % to 40 % discount to net asset value. completed a tender offers for Starwood Real Estate Income Trust, acquiring$10 million, and launched a new strategy focused on NAV dislocations across public and private credit. So looking to pump some money, essentially, provide liquidity in some of these private credit retail products. So some would say that's a move to maybe shore it up and provide investors with some confidence, but certainly something we're keeping a watch on. So the headline, Saba Seeking to Provide Liquidity and Credit Retail Products, like Saba Capital Management expansion into public and private BDCs.

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26:21Yeah, exactly. Stuart Paul is still with us from Bloomberg Economics. Stuart, I'm curious about Jay Powell not being out of the woods yet. You and the team, I just want to say, had great coverage Friday morning on Bloomberg Intelligence. As this was breaking in real time, Elliot Stein was joining you as well. You've had a few days to think about this. If this is good enough for Tom Tillis, for Senator Tom Tillis, is it good enough for Jay Powell? Definitely not. I don't think that— So then why doesn't he just stay on there until all the investigations are done? Because if he becomes a private citizen— Then he's got to pay his legal fees.

26:54It's not over, potentially, right? So we don't know whether the Department of Justice is going to ramp up its investigation further. It definitely provides a degree of comfort, given the role that he's in, to stay— given the position he's in, perhaps being under the microscope— to stay on the board of governors until his term is up in January of 2028. So if Chairman Powell can stay Governor Powell and sort of stay in the room and stay very much so abreast of the situation, the developments of the investigation and participating in monetary policy discussions during that entire period, it gives him a degree of power.

27:33And so I don't think that dropping the investigation of the Department of Justice and just handing it over to the OIG, the Office of the Inspector General, offers him very much assurance at all. I think that he might just view it as a temporary measure to get Kevin Warsh through. Let that be. That's fine. But it would give up a lot of power. It would give up a lot of bargaining power to back off from the Board of Governors. And instead, if I were in his shoes, certainly I would ask for some sort of immunity or some sort of assurance that the investigation won't be reopened, at least by the Department of Justice.

28:09You're a doctor. You're not a lawyer. Correct. And I also I think it's fair of me to ask, what's the assurance of such in this administration? That's a good question. That's a good question. I would imagine that if I were in his shoes, I would ask for something, obviously, in writing. And again, anybody is only as somebody's word is only as good as their bond. That's it. But you would hope to have all the I's dotted and T's crossed. We're going to be talking about higher oil prices for longer in just a minute with Dan Struvan, Goldman Sachs. But your view on rates through the rest of the year, if this conflict is prolonged?

28:52Well, so, of course, higher energy prices create two way risk. The first is that it almost mechanically boosts inflation. We've already seen the consequences of that in the March CPI report. But it also creates drag on real spending and real spending growth. And just to facilitate higher gasoline prices, households are spending about$10 billion more per month. And that's just a transfer. That's just a transfer from households into the energy complex. And it's basically just going to prices. It's not going to additional real economic activity. And when that's the case, the Fed is going to ultimately need to make a decision.

29:28Does it want to keep its foot on the brakes to guard against inflation expectations becoming unanchored? Or does it want to provide a little bit of juice to the economy by cutting interest rates to help undergird the labor market and real activity? I think the Fed is going to keep its foot on the brakes to guard against a rebound in inflation and inflation expectations. Yeah, nobody wins with that. I mean, to be fair. But what I think about, too, like you said, being within those hallowed halls, if you will, of the Federal Reserve for Jay Powell or even a Kevin Warsh, if and when we assume he gets confirmed and he's the next Fed chair.

30:04I do think there is something weighty, especially in that position, because it's not just important to what goes on in the United States. It's really important to what goes on in the global economy and the global investment world that you get in that job and you think about what your responsibility is. Is that fair? Or do we think that Kevin Warsh will succumb to what President Trump wants? No, I think that historically, Kevin Warsh has been a relatively hawkish monetary policymaker, a relatively hawkish voice in the room. I think that if he were pressed with a stagflationary shock created by, we'll just call it an energy shortage, if he were faced with that crisis, he would recognize that easier monetary policy can't bring additional barrels back online.

30:52Right. And when that's the case, why would he cut interest rates into that environment? I think that that's what's really in it. The Fed can't open up the straighter. Well, it's like during COVID, right? It was both a demand and supply shock, right? Of so much demand and supply chains weren't working. And that is not something a central bank can necessarily fix. A central bank can fix it. And I go back to the prepared remarks he had in his confirmation hearing just last week, where the line that stood out to me is that inflation is a choice and central bankers bear responsibility for inflation.

31:24That was a screamingly hawkish thing to include in prepared remarks in the middle of an energy crisis, because the inflation that we're experiencing through March is not a consequence of loose monetary policy. It's a consequence of the war in Iran and barrels being taken offline. But if he truly does view inflation as a choice and central bankers as responsible for making that choice, you would have to think that he would want to keep his foot on the brakes. Interesting. Okay. All right. Well, time will tell, right? Stuart, thank you so much. It's a week, as we said, for global central banks, but certainly for the U.S.

32:01Central Bank, the Federal Reserve. Stuart Paul, Bloomberg Economics, U.S. and Canada Economist. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube. And always, on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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A California man has been charged with trying to kill US President Donald Trump during an attack on a Washington gala dinner over the weekend.Cole Tomas Allen, 31, made his first appearance in federal court on Monday. He is also being charged with gun offenses.

Allen will remain in custody for now. A detention hearing is set for later this week.Allen was wrested to the ground outside of the ballroom at the Washington Hilton where the White House Correspondents’ Association annual dinner was taking place Saturday evening.
Administration officials have said Allen was trying to storm the event to target top US officials, including President Donald Trump, who was attending the event. Trump and Vice President JD Vance were evacuated.

Allen’s exact targets and motives weren’t clear, although he did send a lengthy manifesto to family members that was seen by Bloomberg where he appeared to blast Trump as a “traitor” who committed crimes.

Today's show features:

  • Myles Miller, Bloomberg News Senior National Reporter
  • Angela Stent, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute
  • Thomas Black, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist on US Airlines Tie Up
  • Stuart Paul, Bloomberg Economics US and Canada Economist on FOMC Preview

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