‘MAGA Is Split': Trump Digs In on Iran War, Divides Loyalists

9 Mar 2026 · 40 min · 13 chapters

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In short

Podcast Notes: Bloomberg Businessweek

Episode Title

‘MAGA Is Split': Trump Digs In on Iran War, Divides Loyalists Episode Description In this episode, the hosts discuss President Donald Trump's firm stance on the ongoing conflict with Iran, which is causing a significant divide among his loyal supporters. The episode also features insights on economic implications, energy prices, and the reactions from various stakeholders.

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Key Themes and Discussions

Trump's Military Declaration

  • Unconditional Surrender: Trump stated he would accept no deal with Iran other than unconditional surrender.
  • Economic Assurance: Promised to restore Iran’s economy if an acceptable new leader is installed.

Market Reactions

  • Rising Oil Prices: The military campaign has caused oil prices to surge, impacting global equity and bond markets.
  • Public Sentiment: Rising gasoline prices have reached their highest levels during Trump's presidency, affecting voter sentiment.

MAGA Coalition Response

  • Divisions Among Loyalists: Influencers like Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, and Marjorie Taylor Greene expressed dissent against Trump's military actions, arguing it contradicts the America First agenda.
  • Backlash on Previous Actions: This split follows earlier military actions in Iran and Venezuela, which some MAGA supporters feel betray Trump's anti-war campaign.

Economic Implications

  • Independent Voter Concerns: The conflict risks alienating casual Trump voters who prioritize economic stability over military involvement.
  • Stagflation Risks: The episode highlights concerns over inflation and the economic risks of prolonged military engagement, indicating a complex interplay between military actions and economic health.

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Featured Guests

  1. Nancy Cook - Bloomberg News Senior National Economic Correspondent
  2. Discussed the divide within the MAGA base and the implications of Trump's military actions.
  1. Jennifer Welch - Bloomberg Economics Chief Geoeconomics Analyst
  2. Provided insights on the ongoing effects of the Iran conflict on gas prices, inflation, and the broader economic landscape.
  1. Madison Muller - Bloomberg News Health Reporter
  2. Brief commentary on NOVO's partnership with HIMSS regarding obesity drugs, reflecting on the healthcare market's dynamics.
  1. Jordan Fabian - Bloomberg News White House Editor
  2. Analyzed the administration's strategy and potential political repercussions of the conflict on upcoming elections.

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Key Takeaways

  • Complex Political Landscape: Trump's decision has created fractures in his support base, raising questions about future electoral outcomes.
  • Economic Fears: The interrelation between military actions and economic performance is crucial, with rising oil prices threatening to overshadow midterm elections.
  • Public Sentiment: With voters concerned about affordability, the administration's military focus could be detrimental to its standing with independent voters.

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Conclusion The episode captures a pivotal moment in U.S. foreign policy and domestic politics, showcasing the challenges Trump faces in maintaining his coalition while managing a contentious military campaign that threatens to impact the economy and his political future. The discussion highlights the need for clarity and strategy as the nation approaches critical midterm elections.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Midterms and Trump's War in Iran

2:00 to 2:58

Discussion on the political implications of Trump's Iran war.

“The Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenevek on Bloomberg Radio.”

MAGA Influencers' Backlash

2:58 to 6:41

Exploration of MAGA influencers' discontent with Trump's policies.

“Tell us about this chorus of betrayal, who they are and what they are up to.”

Republican Strategies and Midterm Elections

6:41 to 13:00

Analysis of Republicans' concerns about the midterm elections and Trump's decisions.

“the midterms are going to be about the economy.”

Leveraging AI in Customer Service

14:18 to 15:00

Discussion on how businesses can benefit from AI to enhance productivity.

“If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30 % more productive today with the goal of being 70 % more productive.”

Impact of Crude Prices and Market Reactions

16:23 to 17:46

Analysis of crude oil price fluctuations and economic implications.

“We do want to get into, though, what's going on with crude and think about that in terms of economic and market implications.”

Insights on Leadership Changes in Iran

17:47 to 20:29

Discussion on Iran's new supreme leader and potential geopolitical impacts.

“She joins us from the Bloomberg DC Bureau.”

The Strategy of Resilience in Iran

20:30 to 24:42

Exploration of Iran's strategy and military capabilities amidst conflict.

“and their goal is to try and make the United States and its partners blink first.”

Global Economic Impact of Conflict

24:43 to 27:19

Discussion on the economic repercussions of rising energy costs.

“They're also probably betting that the more that gas prices rise in the United States, that will also exert pressure on President Trump.”

Concerns about Stagflation

27:20 to 28:04

Evaluating the risks of stagflation in light of recent economic trends.

“And the impact on inflation will really depend on how long this conflict lasts and how high oil prices go.”

Understanding Stagflation Amid Conflict

28:04 to 29:12

Explore the implications of stagflation and rising oil prices on the economy.

“Which brings us to something we started talking about on Friday, Jenny, and that is just to kind of wrap up here, this concern about stagflation.”
Show all 13 chapters

Novo Nordisk and Hims: A Business Rivalry

32:32 to 40:09

Deep dive into the competitive dynamics between Novo Nordisk and Hims.

“You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast.”

Discussion on Trump's Policies and Market Reactions

43:38 to 48:32

Insights on Trump's military strategies regarding Iran and their market implications.

“He's Bloomberg News White House editor, and he joins us from the D.C.”

Future of U.S. Policy in Iran

48:32 to 49:34

Exploration of the potential outcomes of U.S. military actions in Iran.

“And it's only March, if you think about what's happened since the beginning of the year.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Carol Massar:They told us to expect change.

0:02Tim Stenovec:They warned us about the transition. But honestly, they forgot the best part. This is the chapter where we finally focus on us. LifeMD delivers expert menopause and midlife care right from your home. From hormone health to holistic wellness, LifeMD helps you feel your best for the best years of your life. LifeMD, it's just getting good. Visit LifeMD.com slash goodlife. The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works. At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across HR, IT, and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slash repetitive tasks, and freed thousands of hours for strategic work.

0:50Tim Stenovec:Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business, IBM. Small businesses are the pulse of every community. They bring people together, create opportunities, and drive growth. Chase for Business helps business owners like you with personalized guidance and convenient digital tools all in one place. With that guidance and your determination, you can take your business farther and help build a brighter future for your community. Learn more at chase.com slash business. Chase for Business. Make more of what's yours.

1:25Tim Stenovec:The Chase mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., member FDIC. Copyright 2026, JPMorgan Chase and Company.

1:59Tim Stenovec:Finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenevek on Bloomberg Radio.

2:09Carol Massar:So we've got the midterms coming in November. We know that. And some are wondering a lot about the political cost of President Trump's war in Iran. President has been emphatic about his intentions in the widening Middle East war. He said just on Friday, he'd accept no deal with Iran other than unconditional surrender and pledge the U.S. will work tirelessly to restore the country's economy if a new leader is installed whom he deems acceptable. That was Friday. We know Iran now has a new leader, as we just talked about with our own Jenny Welch in the last segment. So let's get to more on how some Make America Great Again influencers and GOP politicians are expressing backlash against President Trump's policies.

2:47Carol Massar:It's a recent Bloomberg Big Take. It's something we were talking about all over the weekend. With us is Bloomberg News senior national political correspondent Nancy Cook. She is in the Bloomberg News Washington, D.C. Bureau. Nancy, great to have you here with us. Great story. Tell us about this chorus of betrayal, who they are and what they are up to. Well, thanks so much for having me. Really, what has been happening as Trump has bombed Iran along with Israel is that there are a bunch of MAGA influencers who have huge names and huge megaphones, including Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, the former lawmaker Marjorie Taylor Greene, who do not agree with this military incursion and have been really vocal on it.

3:30Carol Massar:They've just been saying that this violates Trump's longtime campaign promise of America first by not sort of getting involved in the Middle East, and that this is really not part of the agenda that they're looking for.

3:43Tim Stenovec:Well, Nancy, were some of these factions anticipated? Were we expecting to see some sort of breaking up within the group more broadly. Where are you hearing from your sources?

3:54Carol Massar:Well, this is certainly to be expected. I mean, Trump, since 2015, when I've covered his first presidential campaign, has really promised that he wouldn't get the U.S. involved in these Middle East conflicts. He was very critical of past presidents' involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan. And when he got involved in Iran before with bombings, and also when he got involved in taking out the leader of Venezuela, some of these MAGA factions also made noise then. I would say that given the fact that there doesn't seem to be a ton of strategy behind this decision in Iran, or it shifts every day, and then also the unclear timeline for how long the U.S.

4:31Carol Massar:will be involved there, really has incited this wing of the MAGA base, just to say this really isn't what we signed up for. And I just want to point out it's not just the MAGA wing that the White House is worried about, it's also independent voters who aren't necessarily Republican, but who backed Trump in 2024. You know, voters overwhelmingly disapprove of Iran. And a key part of the midterms will be getting these independent swing voters like young men, black men and Hispanics to keep supporting Republicans in 2026. I got to say, Nancy, I keep shaking my head thinking, wait a minute, we've already determined affordability is such an important issue, right?

5:11Carol Massar:We know from past elections. It's the economy, stupid. Like, we get this. This is a playbook that is in many ways tried and true. And I'm just trying to understand, you know, who was calling the shots on this ward? Is this really what President Trump wants? And it makes me wonder, is there some crazy strategy that we're not paying attention to that gives him the confidence to do this? I know the midterms are, what, eight months or so out? Maybe I'm not counting right. Maybe it's six months, eight months. But I'm just wondering, like, is there some strategy that they're like, don't worry about it.

5:44Carol Massar:We're going to challenge the elections, the midterm result. Like, I'm just trying to understand this, how this fits in. So from my sources who I speak to, you know, Trump really, he's a lame duck president. He's not running for president again, or at least that's what we think so far. And he really views this opportunity in the Middle East to shape foreign policy. And so what he is doing is he is ignoring his advisors' pleas to keep focusing on affordability. And he sees these huge opportunities to reshape the global order. We saw that with NATO and sort of how he's pressured those countries to up their military spending.

6:24Carol Massar:We've seen it with Venezuela. We've seen it with Iran. His administration is eyeing leadership changes in Cuba. And so he is looking at his legacy and he has decided that he wants foreign policy and reshaping that world order to be part of that legacy. And he is kind of ignoring advisors and all the outside pollsters who say the midterms are going to be about the economy. We know that's the case. And he's thinking much more broadly about how he wants to be remembered.

6:51Tim Stenovec:Well, what about Republican strategists? What are they saying during this time period about the potential political payoff? Because if it seems as though, you know, he's not necessarily listening to advisors, what do they think about the potential impact as we walk step by step closer to the midterm elections. Maybe it makes him look, Nancy, very presidential in some ways, right?

7:12Carol Massar:Maybe. I think it just introduces a huge unknown into the midterms. And I think that Republican strategists are worried that if the conflict goes on for a long time, that this will overshadow the midterms. The other political risk is, of course, rising energy prices, which we've already seen happen this week. Like, you know, gas prices has been a real bright spot in his economic agenda, whereas tariffs and other things have been more nuanced and complicated things. And if the energy prices continue to rise, then that could be a real political problem for the president in November. You have to remember gas prices and grocery prices are usually what voters think of when they think about, is my life affordable?

7:53Carol Massar:Am I feeling comfortable? You know, it's interesting, though, for somebody who, you know, I think you've already referred to this. He thinks of himself as the peace president. He's been critical of past presidents, George W. in particular, in terms of their decision to launch the Iraqi war. So it's interesting to see him do this. Yeah, I think it just shows that he has never had, he does have some fixed ideas about tariffs, for instance, and he has some fixed ideas about immigration. But I do think that his sort of political instincts are fairly malleable, and we've seen that over his decades as a politician.

8:29Carol Massar:And it is quite interesting that he has decided to really become this foreign policy president in a way that I couldn't have even anticipated when I covered his 2024 campaign. It's been a surprise to me the extent to which he has involved the U.S. in these different countries and sort of who's going to be running them and just involving the U.S. military.

8:52Tim Stenovec:Well, I want to go back to what you were talking about in terms of swing state voters. How do you think about the potential impacts? What do you hear from your sources about the impacts of gas prices, given the fact that the economy in its state is something that everyone experiences, no matter what type of political affiliation you have? So thinking about this K-shaped economy that we're dealing with, plus the gas prices, how do you hear from your sources that they're thinking about the impacts for some of those swing state voters?

9:20Carol Massar:Well, I think Republicans are quite worried. A lot of Republicans that I speak to privately think that they will lose the House of Representatives. They think that Republicans will hold on to the Senate, but narrowly. And, you know, a big part of that is because Trump keeps straying from this affordability message. Americans still feel like grocery prices are still high. If the energy prices keep going up, that's a problem. Housing continues to be a persistent problem. We've seen the jobs numbers really aren't, you know, coming in at great numbers. Plus, people are, you know, companies are starting to shut a lot of jobs.

9:54Carol Massar:It's hard for people to get hired. So the economic picture is just really nuanced and not as great as many voters thought it would be. You have to remember Trump returned to power by criticizing Joe Biden relentlessly for inflation and his handling of the economy. And now he, Trump himself, is experiencing the same economic problems that really undid the Democrats. All right. So it's just interesting to see this go on. And I go back to, you know, I always think about, Nancy, with this White House. And this is because everyone kind of seems to say to us, it's there's a lot always going on and you wonder what you are looking at versus what you should be looking at.

10:33Carol Massar:And I do once again go to the November elections, you know, whether or not I was just looking at don't judge me, but on Polymarket and in terms of mail ins and whether or not President Trump is going to, you know, not allow those. And I think 30 percent of voters cast in the 2024 presidential election were mail in ballots. So we know that this is important. So I just I just wonder what might be going on behind the scenes, not to be like a conspiracy person or anything. Hey, one of the things I want to ask you is where is Congress with all of this stuff going on? Why are they not in Washington?

11:06Carol Massar:Well, Congress, you know, they they always take big breaks. You know, part of the government is shut down, or at least DHS is. And, you know, Congress, you also have to remember, the Republicans on the Hill, they control both the House and the Senate, have really acquiesced to Trump on everything. I do think that, you know, if they lose the midterms, then we may see more Republicans standing up to Trump. But, you know, Republicans have not been a huge guardrail against this president. You know, he did not ask Congress about the bombing of Iran ahead of time. He did not get Congress to authorize this.

11:41Carol Massar:And so, you know, he sort of left them out of the decision making process. And that's really their own doing. They haven't stood up for themselves to make sure that they are a check on the White House.

11:49Tim Stenovec:So if Congress does actually feel sidelined in this moment, what tools does it actually have, if you will, to rein in the administration?

11:59Carol Massar:Well, Congress took a vote last week, which Representative Thomas Massey put forward to try to rain, pull back some of Trump's power in Iran. It failed in the House. And so, you know, there is democracy working. It's just not the Republicans are sort of loathe to put that check on. I think what will happen is that if Republicans do lose the House and Democrats take over, what we will see is a huge raft of investigations into how Trump handled Iran. into how his family is profiting off of the White House. I think a ton of cabinet officials will be hauled up to Congress to testify. And so I think that, you know, Trump is well aware that if Republicans lose the House, there will be a lot of investigations.

12:44Carol Massar:He could be impeached again, for instance. However, I still think that he's very focused on this idea of nation building and legacy in a way that a lot of us didn't foresee during the last presidential campaign. Yeah, totally. I think it caught us all off guard, especially when you think of how the 2026 began with Venezuela. Nancy, thank you so much. Bloomberg News senior national political correspondent Nancy Cook. Be sure to check out. It was a big take. You can find that story on the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg dot com. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

13:22Carol Massar:They told us to expect change.

13:24Tim Stenovec:They warned us about the transition. But honestly, they forgot the best part. This is the chapter where we finally focus on us. LifeMD delivers expert menopause and midlife care right from your home. From hormone health to holistic wellness, LifeMD helps you feel your best for the best years of your life. LifeMD, it's just getting good. Visit lifemd.com slash goodlife.

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14:40Carol Massar:Yeah.

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16:07Tim Stenovec:public.com slash disclosures. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

16:23Carol Massar:We do want to get into, though, what's going on with crude and think about that in terms of economic and market implications. We did see WTI crude nearly hitting 120 a barrel today. President Trump addressed higher oil prices specifically on Saturday in exchange with Bloomberg News senior White House correspondent Josh Wingrove. What about the Strait of Hormuz? There's no traffic really going through. Well, that's, you know, the ship's choices, but we haven't cleaned out. We've wiped out their Navy. The Navy is now at the bottom of the sea. So that's the choice. This is an excursion. We figured oil prices would go up, which they will.

17:01Carol Massar:They'll also come down. They'll come down very faster, we will have gotten rid of a major, major cancer on the face of the earth. Again, that was President Trump over the weekend on Saturday. And yes, indeed, markets do go up, markets go down. It's just the duration of those cycles that we're all trying to figure out. I also do want to point out President Trump on social writing this on Sunday, he said short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for the United States of America and world safety and peace. Only fools would think differently.

17:37Carol Massar:Again, this is coming from the president writing out on social on Sunday. Continuing to tie together the social posts, the war, the economic consequences, and so much more is Bloomberg Economics Chief Geo Economics Analyst Jennifer Welch. She joins us from the Bloomberg DC Bureau. She's been a go-to for us. Jenny, good to have you here with Nora and myself on Monday. I want to just take a step back and just I'm curious about the conversations you guys have been having through the weekend today, another new week, second week of this U.S. war in Iran. Is there any consensus around the timeline of what the president and his team are thinking about how long this war lasts?

18:14Tim Stenovec:No, and even the administration has given conflicting ideas on how long they think this would last. If you recall, President Trump was saying last week that they originally planned for this to be four to five weeks, But now they've accomplished some of their goals a little bit sooner, so it may be shorter. But at the same time, he's willing to stay in the fight for as long as it takes, while his secretary of war, Pete Hegseth, is saying this won't be a forever war. But I think a couple of signs over the weekend point to the fact that this isn't likely to wrap up anytime soon. In addition to President Trump's comments about seeking an unconditional surrender, something that Iran does not seem interested in and suggesting the U.S.

18:49Tim Stenovec:is going to escalate on its side, We also have Iran choosing a new supreme leader who, for his part, also doesn't seem to be in a rush for diplomacy or negotiations. So I think we see both sides digging in their heels here, preparing to fight this out. And Iran in particular realizing that its strategy of imposing costs on the region and on global oil markets may be starting to pay off.

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19:10Carol Massar:What do we know about the leader that was chosen and where President Trump feels about this? As you said, he has said he wants to kind of basically sign off on this. It is the son of Ayatollah al-Khamenei, and my understanding is that maybe even more conservative than his father was. But what do we know, and what are we kind of trying to figure out, read the tea leaves, about any kind of conversations, perhaps, backroom conversations that perhaps U.S. and Iran might be having?

19:39Tim Stenovec:Yes, so the new Supreme Leader, Mostafa al-Hamini, he's the son of the late Supreme Leader, was widely expected to be the successor to him. He is conservative, like his father, shares many of his ideological leanings, including and really believing in the core tenets of the Islamic Republic. So by no means a reformer or a change agent. This is his first public role, though. So there's a lot that we don't know about his leanings. He could prove to be more pragmatic. But at the same time, he is facing sanctions by the United States, has lost many close family members in this war already, including his father and his wife.

20:15Tim Stenovec:and he's probably not in a rush to talks. I think the perspective in Tehran from members of the Islamic Republic is that they are in a war of resistance right now with the United States and it's somewhat of an asymmetric one where they're willing to bear a lot of costs and suffer a lot of pain and their goal is to try and make the United States and its partners blink first. I think what all of that points to is that we won't be seeing Iran moving forward towards a surrender or the sort of decapitation arrangement that the Trump administration arranged with Venezuela, which may be what Washington had been pinning its hopes on.

20:50Tim Stenovec:So when we think about this new leadership, what aspects in particular do you think are most crucial as we think about this transition period between there as well as just geopolitically speaking, the relations between countries here? I think the important thing to keep in mind and what the selection of a new supreme leader demonstrates is even though U.S. and Israeli strikes took out a significant number of senior Iranian officials, including the former Supreme Leader, the system is surviving and it's finding new ways and new people to put in charge. And I think what that suggests is a level of resilience that makes a campaign to force Iran's total surrender, whatever goals the Trump administration currently has in mind, very difficult and the sort of campaign that might last longer than what the administration had originally envisioned.

21:40Tim Stenovec:They were hoping that Iran would fold rather quickly after these massive strikes. That doesn't seem to be the case. And I think also when you look at the military perspective, it's sort of a similar story. Iran is continuing to carry out strikes on Gulf countries to hold shipping in the Strait of Hormuz at risk. And all of that is part of the reason why we haven't seen traffic resume, despite what President Trump talked about in that clip with offering naval escorts and protection that ships don't seem to be taking him up on that offer.

22:07Carol Massar:I keep thinking too, Jenny, about all of this against the region, because it's not just Iran and U.S., Iran and Israel. We are feeling strikes throughout the region. And I saw in our reporting, you know, Saudi Arabia hardening its tone against Iran as it dealt with incoming projectiles again today, including ones heading toward oil giant Aramco's Shaba field and areas in and around Riyadh. This new leader, any consensus, as you said, he hasn't been very public. This is his first public role. But is there any consensus that we're hearing from the region about what this leader might mean for Iran going forward?

22:44Carol Massar:And as you remind us, the regime is never one person. It's many people.

22:48Tim Stenovec:It's many people. But this particular person in particular seems to be more in line with his father's perspective on fighting the full fight. Right. And using proxies and partners to continue this war of resistance against the United States, whether it's a hot war like what we're seeing today. or more the sort of long battle by proxy that had been the preceding decades kind of conflict. I think what this means for partners in the region is they're facing increasingly tough choices. As their air defenses start to run out, come under strain by the just volume of Iranian projectiles that they're dealing with, they're going to start to need to make choices about where they dedicate those air defenses.

23:27Tim Stenovec:I think also this is forcing a bit of reluctance or frustration with the United States that the U.S. began this conflict, despite them lobbying Washington not to proceed with it, and despite it putting them in the front lines of this battle that they didn't want to participate in, and they actually have not been, for most of them, really active participants into date, yet that didn't seem to spare them from taking a lot of the incoming from Iran. So could his appointment at all increase the likelihood of deeper economic retaliation against Gulf states or Western interests, for that matter? And if so, what will be the knock-on effects for regional trade flows?

24:06Tim Stenovec:I actually think the longer pull in the tent for that will be the stockpiles that Iran still has left at its disposal. How many missiles it has left, how many drones it has left. The United States and Israel have really focused their attacks on decimating those capabilities, and in particular on the missile side, destroying Iran's missile production facilities, its missile launchers. We don't know how many missiles it still has in its stockpiles, But if it can't launch them, then that is a real cap on its ability to hold those assets and shipping in the region at risk. But I think the intent will remain there because this is a strategy that Iran thinks is working, that it can essentially force other partners in the region who don't want to incur these costs to blink and to put Washington under pressure to bring the war to an end.

24:52Tim Stenovec:They're also probably betting that the more that gas prices rise in the United States, that will also exert pressure on President Trump. So I think it's less about intent and more about capability. And that right now is a real big open question. But I would stagger to guess that at least their drone stockpile is significant enough for this to be a problem for at least the next few weeks.

25:12Carol Massar:I also do wonder, you know, and I want to shift to your many hats that you wear about the economic impact globally and certainly on the U.S. You know, we just had a headline from the information crossing that Meta platform's closing its Tel Aviv office temporarily. that coming from the information. We had last week a story about drone strikes damaging three facilities operated by Amazon.com in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. So I do think about this region that has really many areas have transformed themselves and embraced, I don't want to say capitalism, but to some extent, yes, you know, in terms of building up their financial presence as trying to attract in more investors.

25:54Carol Massar:Is it too soon to say that there will be some kind of economic impact on that region?

25:59Tim Stenovec:I think it is a little too soon to say that there will be a long-term impact. But I think certainly the perspective from a lot of Gulf countries that, as you mentioned, have made a bet on transforming themselves into sort of pillars of stability in an otherwise somewhat tumultuous region is having all of this incoming, having this conflict, having to deal with strikes on civilian facilities, all of that really undercuts this image that they have worked so long to build up. We're seeing a number of multinationals talk about ceasing operations or having to shift to different footing as a result of the conflicts.

26:32Tim Stenovec:And I think it's going to take time for them to not just rebuild those air defense stockpiles, but to rebuild that image that this conflict has really hit hard. Beyond just gasoline in the United States, what sectors do you think also may feel the brunt of higher energy costs? I know you mentioned the fact that potentially Iran is betting on the fact that President Donald Trump will actually take a step back, given the fact that there are a lot of concerns from U.S. consumers about elevated gas prices. That's really the wicked problem when it comes to higher oil prices is they tend to affect everything that gets transported using gasoline and oil.

27:09Tim Stenovec:So it's highly inflationary. And I think that's going to be the real challenge facing the United States, Even though we're a net energy producer now and that will cushion the economic impact to a certain degree, it won't necessarily help folks when it comes to what the cost is at the pump and what the cost is at the grocery store. And the impact on inflation will really depend on how long this conflict lasts and how high oil prices go. And those are interrelated. The more markets think that these disruptions won't be temporary, likely the higher oil prices are to go. We saw them touch very high levels overnight in Asia trading.

27:41Tim Stenovec:They're likely to continue to grow if we think, for example, the Strait of Hormuz won't be opening anytime soon. That could put prices well above 110. We estimate even higher than that if there's a presupposition in the markets that the Strait is going to remain closed for as long as two to three months. We could see prices rise much higher and the impact on inflation could be quite significant.

28:04Carol Massar:Which brings us to something we started talking about on Friday, Jenny, and that is just to kind of wrap up here, this concern about stagflation. coming off of a weak jobs report, concerns about growth slowing, yet those inflationary concerns were out there even before this U.S. war in Iran, and this just exacerbates the situation. When do we make a call on stagflation? And once that train has kind of left the station, how quickly does it happen?

28:32Tim Stenovec:That's going to be, I think, a central challenge for not just the Fed, but a lot of central banks, is how much can they look through the impact of higher oil prices on inflation. Do they think it's going to be temporary or are they going to be facing this dual challenge of dealing with higher inflation, but also lower growth expectations as a result of these energy prices? And in many places, real direct energy disruptions because they simply aren't able to access anything. I think the next few days will be telling in terms of how long these disruptions might last.

28:59Carol Massar:It's the million, billion, trillion dollar question, right? How long does this last? And that really then can make us figure out the equation as to what will ultimately be the impact. You put it all in place, though, as we need to do as we go from day to day. Jenny, thank you so much. Jenny Welch, she's Bloomberg Economics, Chief Geoeconomics Analyst there in our DC Bureau. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.

29:28Tim Stenovec:Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvind Krishna, and I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example? If anybody has more than 10 % of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30 % more productive today, with the goal of being 70 % more productive.

30:15Yeah.

30:16Tim Stenovec:Wow. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say, you can leverage what we did. We are happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology. It's getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit ibm.com slash smarttalks.

30:45Carol Massar:support for the show comes from public public is an investing platform that offers access to stocks options bonds and crypto and they've also integrated ai with tools that can assist investors in building customized portfolios one of these tools is called generated assets it allows you to turn your ideas into investable indexes so let's say you're interested in something specific like biotech companies with high R &D spend, small cap stocks with improving operating margins, or the S &P 500 minus high debt companies. Chances are there isn't an ETF that fits your exact criteria. But on public, you just type in a prompt and their AI screens thousands of stocks and build a one-of-a-kind index.

31:25Carol Massar:You can even backtest it against the S &P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Go to public.com slash market and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash market.

32:04Tim Stenovec:Sign up at Sonesta.com to enjoy instant savings, bonus points, and valuable perks like early check-in, late checkout, room upgrades, and free stays over time. With Sonesta Travel Pass, every stay brings you closer to your next reward. Choose from more than 1 ,100 hotels across 13 distinctive brands and unlock the best available rates when you book direct with Sonesta Travel Pass. Here today, roam tomorrow. Join now at Sonesta.com. Terms and conditions apply. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern.

32:41Carol Massar:Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

32:45Tim Stenovec:Or watch us live on YouTube.

32:47Carol Massar:Hey, shares of Novo Nordisk, the ADRs that trade here in the U.S., and hims and hers health moving, especially hims and hers. In fact, that one soaring the most ever intraday. The two are going to work together to sell obesity drugs, a sudden reversal after more than eight months of acrimony that culminated in a legal battle, which is what made me say this morning, wait, what?

33:07Tim Stenovec:It's been a story.

33:08Carol Massar:It's been a story. So here to explain, it has been quite a story. Here to explain it all is Bloomberg News health reporter Madison Muller. She joins us now in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. So first of all, I'm kind of like, what happened? But tell us, what was that issue? Why these guys were battling?

33:23Tim Stenovec:Yeah, I mean, I also, as someone who follows this space really closely, was absolutely shocked when we broke this story on Friday night. And at first, I didn't believe it when I heard this. I was like, this can't be right. I mean, these guys have been trading barbs for months. You know, him saying that the lawsuit was an attack from a Danish company on Americans. Like, there's a lot of weird animosity, a lot going on, a very, very tumultuous relationship. But basically, the issue between the two companies goes back to last year. They had teamed up to, you know, Novo and Lilly have a lot of these telehealth partnerships.

34:00Tim Stenovec:It's something that helps them get their drugs to more Americans because a lot of Americans are seeking out weight loss drugs on these telehealth platforms. And so Novo teamed up with HIMSS last year to offer its obesity medicines on HIMSS's telehealth platform. Then I think it was like less than two months later, they abruptly ended the partnership because HIMSS was continuing to sell these copycat weight loss medications on its platform. And really, Novo said that the issue was the deceptive marketing and the fact that HIMSS was continuing to really market these medications. You know, fast forward a couple of months, NOVO is having its own issues here in the U.S., especially competition with Eli Lilly, competition with these telehealth companies.

34:41Tim Stenovec:They launched a weight loss pill that was really key to their comeback strategy. And a couple of weeks later, HIMSS launched a knockoff version of that pill. And so NOVO was like, OK, we're done playing. We're going to sue you. Like pretty swift action. And the FDA came in right behind that. And they were like, we are also going to crack down on compounded GLP-1s. And then now, shockingly, they're dropping that lawsuit. We love you. And they are turning a tide. They're besties again. Yeah, exactly. It feels like a sibling rivalry, just watching that back and forth. Yeah. So public. So public. Out there for everyone to see.

35:17Tim Stenovec:But I'm curious, when we think about the idea of copycat drugs, We obviously know that the United States kind of came in and pushed back on it alongside Novo Nordisk. But how far can you really run with something like that? What made hims and hers feel as though that was something that they could do in the first place? Right. And that's a great question. So it was allowed for a certain period of time when the weight loss drugs were actually in shortage. So these compounding pharmacies can make copycat versions of medications when they're in short supply. And that shortage is something that the FDA designates.

35:49Tim Stenovec:So it's pretty official. But then that shortage ended. Lilly and Nova were able to make enough of their drugs. But companies like HIMSS and some of these other telehealth companies, compounding pharmacies, continued selling the drugs, sort of operating under the assumption that, like, oh, the FDA is just not going to do anything. Like, we haven't seen them do anything before. You know, some of the, like, language regulation around this is a little bit murky, a little bit of a gray area. Like, we think we're going to be okay. We're just going to keep doing this. another way that they got around that was by not making exact copies of the medications but by slightly tweaking the dosages microdosing things like that adding b12 adding b6 adding a whatever patent infringement well so that's what then novo was suing him over so that was the first time they had filed any type of lawsuit against a telehealth company for patent infringement so it was really a step up, sort of signaled more aggressive action from Novo.

36:43Tim Stenovec:And then now they've pulled that lawsuit.

36:46Carol Massar:So is this a win-win for both in your view? You've watched this space, you understand and how it continues to evolve. Is it a win-win for both?

36:53Tim Stenovec:Yeah. I mean, both of them are in really precarious situations. I mean, Novo really needs this partnership with HIMSS because they need pretty much any partnership they can get right now to get their drugs to more patients. Even though Novo created the US weight loss market, they've really lost out in the last year or so to Eli Lilly. Yeah, it's pretty remarkable. So they kind of need to do everything that they can right now to get their drugs to more patients. HIMSS on the other side has really, you know, the last few weeks, especially with the NOVO lawsuit, with the FDA clamping down on compounded drugs, DOJ investigation, SEC investigation, like they have a lot going on.

37:30Tim Stenovec:And the future for this compounded weight loss drug business was very uncertain. And their stock has really suffered as a result the last several months. And investors have really been questioning, like, what is the path forward for this company? And so they needed this deal from that, you know, that perspective of needing a lane and an avenue forward for growth. Does Hampton Hers Health have any real competitor? I mean, from my perspective, I would assume as a consumer, it's really convenient that you could just go online, shop for what you're looking for. And then, to my understanding, it's mailed to you.

38:04Tim Stenovec:So do they have any other competitors that you kind of keep an eye on? It's interesting seeing them down so substantially on the year when you think about them as a convenient avenue. Right. It's interesting because there's actually not that many telehealth companies sort of in the same caliber that are public. So HIMSS is usually used as sort of like a proxy for the industry. At least that's how I've heard it described. They do have competitors like Weight Watchers now is offering GLP-1 medications. They're actually public. Rowe is probably the biggest competitor to Hymns, but Rowe is still privately held.

38:38Tim Stenovec:So not something that we can really assess from that standpoint. But there are some competitors out there. It's just Hymns tends to be the one that's like really on investors' minds or, you know, in sort of like the public consciousness and discourse.

38:51Carol Massar:I do want to point out, if you take a look at Hymns and hers, I mean, as you said, 31 % to the downside here this year in 2026, almost 40 % of the float is short. So there's a lot of negative sentiment. While you're here, before you go, I want to ask you about the head of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Division of Vaccines and Gene Therapies is leaving the agency. It's not been a great tenure for him. I did see a lot of biotech shares moving late Friday, and we continue to see it today. Significant? Yeah, yeah.

39:20Tim Stenovec:This is definitely significant, especially for the biotech industry. um prasad's tenure has sort of been marked by a lot of controversy a lot of issues uh for biotech companies it's been a real challenge and so a lot of investors sort of breathed a sigh of relief when they saw that he was exiting um you know the fda said that this was a planned departure that he had only really planned to be at the agency for like a year but that's not something that was widely known i think during his tenure yeah so it definitely came as a surprise but i think a welcome one. And we did see a lot of biotech stocks moving on that last week.

39:56Carol Massar:It's amazing all that she knows on this base. I'll blow my mind every time we talk. There's always lots happening. There is a lot happening, right? And I'm sure more to come. Madison, thanks. Thank you. Really appreciate it. Bloomberg News health reporter, Madison Muller, right here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.

40:20Hello, hello.

40:21Tim Stenovec:I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvind Krishna, and I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example? If anybody has more than 10 % of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30 % more productive today, with the goal of being 70 % more productive. Yeah. Wow.

41:08Tim Stenovec:So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say, you can leverage what we did. We are happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology. It's getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit ibm.com slash smarttalks.

41:37Carol Massar:support for the show comes from public public is an investing platform that offers access to stocks options bonds and crypto and they've also integrated ai with tools that can assist investors in building customized portfolios one of these tools is called generated assets it allows you to turn your ideas into investable indexes so let's say you're interested in something specific like biotech companies with high R &D spend, small cap stocks with improving operating margins, or the S &P 500 minus high debt companies. Chances are there isn't an ETF that fits your exact criteria. But on public, you just type in a prompt and their AI screens thousands of stocks and builds a one-of-a-kind index.

42:17Carol Massar:You can even backtest it against the S &P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Go to public.com slash market and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash market.

42:31Tim Stenovec:And paid for by Public Holdings. Brokered services by Public Investing, member FINRA SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, SEC Registered Advisor. Crypto services by ZeroHash. Sample prompts are for illustrative purposes only, not investment advice. All investing involves risk of loss. See complete disclosures at public.com slash disclosures. Travel smarter, not harder at America's Best Value In by Sinesta. With convenient locations from coast to coast and value-packed comfort at every turn. It's a practical choice for road trips, quick getaways, and everyday travel that keeps things simple without sacrificing comfort.

43:04Tim Stenovec:And when you're a Sonesta Travel Pass member, staying at America's Best Value In means earning points toward free nights, upgrades, and more every time you stay. Go to Sonesta.com to book your stay and unlock the best rates with Sonesta Travel Pass. Here today, roam tomorrow. Join now at Sonesta.com. Terms and conditions apply. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern.

43:31Carol Massar:Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

43:35Tim Stenovec:Or watch us live on YouTube.

43:38Carol Massar:Right now with us is Jordan Fabian. He's Bloomberg News White House editor, and he joins us from the D.C. Bureau. Jordan, let me toss it over to you. These headlines have definitely got attention on Wall Street. We've seen markets. Equities are now to the upside. We've seen the dollar back off. We've seen crude move way down. What are you guys hearing in terms of where the president is right now and whether or not this war might be coming to an end sooner rather than later?

44:06Tim Stenovec:Those top line comments to CBS News would certainly suggest that the president is looking for an off ramp. The White House and the president saw all these negative indicators in the markets over the weekend. Oil prices starting to crest, stocks falling. And so they certainly have taken note of that. We're in a midterm election year, higher gas prices, not great for the president's party. That being said, we'll have to see exactly what the president means. He seemed to send some conflicting signals in that CBS News interview, also saying that he would want the U.S. military to perhaps take control of the Strait of Hormuz.

44:45Tim Stenovec:That would not indicate that this conflict is nearing an end if you would have U.S. forces just off the coast of Iran there for the foreseeable future, safeguarding shipping while you have an armed hostile force right next door. So we'll have to see what he says here at the 530 News conference to flesh that out.

45:05Carol Massar:Well, it's interesting because it was just yesterday he called$100 a barrel oil a small price to pay his words and said the cost, quote, will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, which didn't seem to indicate like kind of, you know, a little bit of pain for some gain, I guess is how he saw it. it's just a reminder that his tone and tenor can change on any situation. What are you guys hearing from inside the White House? We know that his advisors have been thinking more about the midterms and that affordability story here in the United States.

45:43Tim Stenovec:Yeah, they've certainly been tight-lipped about the immediate comments he gave to CBS, but But, you know, all indications have been that they are sticking to this conflict, that they didn't want to back off. But the president, as you said, is fickle in nature. He could have had a change of heart looking at those numbers. It's also important to remember that this conflict was launched really without building up any public case for the war. The aims of the conflict themselves have been confusing and conflicting at times. And it doesn't appear that the White House has done a lot of thinking about the second, third day, fourth day after the conflict ends.

46:21Tim Stenovec:What happens in Iran? They've chosen the supreme leader's son as the next supreme leader, another hardline choice. So it's not as if the president's getting the type of regime that he would be able to control a la Venezuela there. So it really begs the question of what all this was for at the end of the day if he does decide to pull the plug. It's interesting, Jordan, because I think about immediately in markets, the Trump put, which is where this idea that Trump will intervene in any sort of way, whether it's reversing the extent of tariffs or any other issue that may could potentially be hurting markets.

46:58Tim Stenovec:But as we've been talking about just in this conversation, he hasn't in this situation necessarily allayed a lot of concerns up until today where we're seeing this reversal. So just how important is visibility, not just for markets, but for swing voters, because we are coming up on this midterm election season? Yeah, it's tremendously important. Voters, they care about the cost of living, which is high. Gas prices are one thing that is always on voters' minds. There are signs with gas stations all around the country that it's ever present in their mind and reinforces their perceptions of the economy.

47:35Tim Stenovec:And so, look, I think that's obviously on the White House's mind. But, you know, they, again, never really stated a public case for why this conflict was necessary at this time. And now, you know, this did not go as easily for them as Venezuela. The public is also very hesitant about overseas military interventions, especially in the Middle East, given how poorly Iraq and Afghanistan ended for the United States. And so all these problems you're seeing coming home to roost for Trump, and he might pull out of this conflict and that might allay investor concern in the interim, but he's done a lot to destabilize the executive branches as an institution, the private sector as an entity.

48:20Tim Stenovec:And so it's interesting to me that there's always this put where he's just going to do something more destabilizing likely in the future, given the track record of this administration so far.

48:32Carol Massar:Yeah, just 2026. And it's only March, if you think about what's happened since the beginning of the year. Hey, Jordan, just one more thing. I mean, the president was also weighing the option of deploying some special forces on the ground to seize Iran's near bomb grade uranium. You know, officials also concerned that maybe that actually that stockpile has been moved. This is according to, I think you guys reported out, three diplomatic officials briefed on the matter. So there's also that at play. So again, it just gets to what's the mission? What's the end game here?

49:01Tim Stenovec:Right. And was the mission harm reduction, reducing the threat Iran posed, cutting off its path to a nuclear weapon? or was it regime change or was it, you know, the president was upset that Iran tried to, you know, assassinate him in 2024 and was looking for a measure of revenge. He's thrown out all these reasons himself. And now we're left to guess what the next step is.

49:25Carol Massar:Well, next step is that press conference right tonight from Florida. So we'll see what the president says. We know you guys will be all over and we'll be monitoring the reporting. So appreciate it. Jordan, thank you so much. That, of course, is Jordan Fabian. He's Bloomberg News White House editor joining us from our D.C. Bureau. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

49:50Tim Stenovec:Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app. Tune in and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

50:13Carol Massar:If you follow markets, you know the value of long-term thinking. You plan, you diversify, you prepare for volatility. But even the best strategies can't prevent every bad day. For more than 75 years, Cincinnati Insurance has helped individuals and businesses navigate tough moments with expertise, personal attention, and independent agents who focus on relationships, not transactions. The Cincinnati insurance companies. Let them make your bad day better. Find an agent at CINFIN.com.

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President Donald Trump made an emphatic declaration on Friday about his intentions in the widening Middle East war: He’d accept no deal with Iran other than “unconditional surrender” and pledged the US “will work tirelessly” to restore the country’s economy if a new leader is installed whom he deems acceptable.Nearly a week in, the military campaign has sent oil prices soaring and roiled equity and bond markets across the globe. The online missive showed the president — who campaigned as a pro-peace candidate — is digging in on policies that threaten to tear his fragile political coalition apart.

The revolt of “Make America Great Again” influencers including Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly and Marjorie Taylor Greene, along with several GOP politicians, has produced a chorus of betrayal. “No one should have to die for a foreign country,” Kelly said on her radio show this week.
Their backlash comes after Trump has already tested his base’s loyalty with an earlier strike on Iran and an operation in Venezuela to capture Nicolas Maduro that represent the kind of military adventurism he’d built his political career on rejecting, as well as his handling of the Epstein files, which frustrated some MAGA devotees who expected the swift and full transparency he promised.

At the same time, the Iran campaign risks alienating the more-casual Trump voters who cast a ballot for him hoping he’d shore up the economy, and see Middle East conflict as a distraction — or even a hindrance. Gasoline prices this week rose to their highest level at any time during a Trump presidency.

Today's show features:

  • Nancy Cook, Bloomberg News Senior National Economic Correspondent on Big Take: ‘MAGA Is Split': Trump Digs In on Iran War, Divides Loyalists
  • Jennifer Welch, Bloomberg Economics Chief Geoeconomics Analyst on ongoing impact of Iran/Hormuz on gas prices, inflation/stagflation, energy and other commodities prices
  • Madison Muller, Bloomberg News Health Reporter on Novo Drops Hims & Hers Lawsuit and Will Sell Wegovy on Site, FDA Plans to Loosen Testing Rules to Boost Biosimilar Drugs
  • Bloomberg News White House Editor Jordan Fabian on President Trump Says War with Iran is ‘Very Complete'

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