Trump Amps Threat to ‘Take Out’ Iran Before Tuesday Deadline

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1:22Find an agent at CINFIN.com. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenevek on Bloomberg Radio. I want to bring in the perspective of somebody based in the Middle East. So let's head to Jerusalem now and to Bloomberg News Middle East reporter Dan Williams. Dan, I just want to know how you read into this press conference, lasting just about 80 minutes from the president and other administration officials, including chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kang, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and others spoke as well.

2:19What was your takeaway? I can assure you I was not alone in watching it here in Israel. Well, you can bet your bottom dollar that the prime minister, Netanyahu, the defense minister, everyone else involved in decision making was watching too. I think they'll want to know whether they can continue this war, a war that the Israelis are gauging, measuring by day to day achievements, or whether everything will be over within 24 hours, give or take. Keep in mind that the president outlined what he described as a critical juncture in the war where it could go one of two ways, really 180 degrees, either a peaceable solution, as the US would define it, or a significant escalation and wide-scale destruction of Iran, including civilian structure.

3:03So given that that would have impacts on the downstream effects, this is something that was raised in the press conference in terms of confidence, perhaps, among the Iranian population's support for this war, given that they would suffer more directly should civilian infrastructure be hurt. The implications could be really wide ranging. As you noted, the president kept a degree of strategic ambiguity around the term ceasefire. He actually, it was a very discursive press conference, like many of his are. But on that, he refused to talk. Now, this could be deliberate ambiguity over talks which he says have been going on apace.

3:37The Iranians deny, or have essentially denied that those talks are underway. It could also be that he's aware that there's an Iranian affront to the term ceasefire. The Iranians have said that they worry that the idea of a ceasefire would expose them to renewed attack in the future from Israel or the US once the allies regroup. It could be that Trump is aware of this. It could be he's trying to step away from that nomenclature for a different term other than ceasefire, something that might calm the Iranians enough to have them enter a deal that would effectively end the war, perhaps not peace, perhaps not something north of a ceasefire, something between the two, but different phrasing that would help him get this deal over the line if indeed there is deal making behind the scenes.

4:19Dan, I am curious about the ability to continue war. Great story by you. Israel assessing that Iran still has more than a thousand missiles capable of reaching it, while Hezbollah's arsenal in Lebanon includes as many as 10 ,000 shorter range rockets, according to military briefings cited by Israeli media this weekend. Dan, where are we in this process. And this is something we talked about in our planning call this morning. Like, where is the U.S. military? Where's Israel? Where's Iran, the actual military hardware capable of continuing this war? Well, to hear the president tell it, this war has been won.

4:56The Iranians are in disarray. He said they have no communication structure internally. That's a bit hard to reconcile with what we're seeing on the ground. And indeed, the messaging, as you noted, from Israel, specifically the military, with unusual openness. It's worth noting that in the course of this war, certainly as it began, the military declined to give its assessments of full strength in Iran, specifically the Iranian missile arsenal. This would be a critical issue, not just in terms of the threat posed by Iran to Israel, to Gulf Arab states in its vicinity, to US bases and targets in its vicinity, but also it's a measure, a good yardstick of the duration of the war.

5:32All you need to do is count the number of missiles fired a day and just extrapolate from that if you have the full number of missiles remaining in Iran's arsenal. Suddenly, an Israeli officer in charge of intelligence for the Air Force gave an interview on Israel's main news channel saying they had more than 1 ,000 remaining. Now, I can tell you in off-record briefings we got at Bloomberg at the beginning of the war, we're told that number was around 2 ,000. So if that's correct, in five weeks of war, they reduced it by half. That would be some spent in firing at Israel, some destroyed on the ground by Israel and the US.

6:07But that gives you a sense that that current rate of fire, the current rate of fire, potentially the Iranians could go on for weeks, perhaps even months. And the same applies to their Hezbollah ally in Lebanon, which is directing rockets at northern Israel and troops invading the south of Lebanon. It's worth remembering that just overnight last night, the Iranians managed a missile strike in the northern city of Haifa that killed a family of four. an elderly couple, their son, his wife, and they are managing to inflict damage and casualties. The Israelis are reckoning with a continuation of this in the absence of a ceasefire.

6:40They're saying they're willing to continue fighting, but there is a price. Well, let's talk about that, Dan, and end with that, because you are joining us from Jerusalem, where the attacks certainly have continued in the country of Israel. What can you tell us about what the Israeli government and the Israeli military is prepared for in terms of duration? To hear them tell it, every additional day is a blessing. I use that word guardedly, but it was used by an Israeli cabinet minister on a radio interview today. A blessing in that Israel finally has the opportunity, the tactical environment in which to inflict lasting damage on its archenemy, Iran.

7:16An enemy whose enmity goes back 47 years really has radiated around the Middle East, including groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, etc. Supported by Iran. However, the Israelis, it's worth noting, despite the enduring threat, are signaling a return to normalcy here and there. Cinemas have started showing films again. Airlines are expanding the number of passengers allowed on outgoing flights. There's even talk potentially of a return next week of some school students to their schools. So it would appear the Israelis are trying to make adjustments while still pursuing this war as long as they can in order to achieve a lasting effect.

7:52If not peace, then at least a destruction and deterrence of their main enemy. Is there a clear message, Dan, about the intent from Israel, the Israeli government on the war and kind of where we are and bringing it to an end? And I'm also curious about how that contrasts with messaging throughout the region. Well, I think the U.S. president, there's a reason everyone stopped in their tracks to watch that 80-minute sprawling, very interesting press conference. He's calling the shots. No one doubts it, including Iran, I imagine, certainly Israel. Two weeks ago, the Israeli prime minister now in a press conference said openly that Trump is the, quote, leader of this campaign, that Israel is the, quote, ally, i.e.

8:37the junior partner in this campaign. If Trump calls it quits, Israel will as well, not necessarily in Lebanon, but certainly when it comes to Iran. And if Trump continues, the Israelis will continue as well with military parity, military partnership. It's worth remembering the Iranians, as some of their terms for a ceasefire, have been a comprehensive ceasefire on all fronts. That's a reference to Lebanon, to their ally Hezbollah, that Israel really is trying to diminish militarily as much as possible, including with an invasion of Lebanon. Israel will try to pursue that. So it could be that if there is a discussion of ceasefire terms, the Israelis are saying, Mr.

9:12President will accept it, but we need to keep fighting in Lebanon. at least there, we can achieve material gains for a threat that's really on our border, literally within touching distance in the past, across a very close fence, the border fence between Israel and Lebanon. So those would be the Israeli conditions. But if the war is called off vis-a-vis Iran, you can imagine that Israel would fall into line very quickly with that. What was the weekend like? I feel like I'm going backwards, but what was the weekend like for you in Israel? It was actually a holiday weekend here. It was the Jewish holiday of Passover.

9:48There is a number of days between the opening days, the closing days of Passover. The festival ends tomorrow evening. Much of the country was shut down for that. However, no vacations, no school holidays, no school camps. And in fact, the main feast of the Passover holiday was held by many people inside bomb shelters and very close to bomb shelters, given the number of sirens. Just today, there were six missile launches by Iran at Israel. People have gotten used to scrambling for shelter, including in the middle of the night. That includes the town where I live. You get used to it. The country is pretty used to this.

10:20This is the tail end of a two-year and six or seven-month war that began in Gaza, a war that really sees Iran as having orchestrated from the top on several fronts. So I think Iranians see this war with Iran as a necessary cresting, and they hope a necessary conclusion of that region. war. 30 seconds before we leave you. Have we created an enemy that's even a bigger enemy in Iran? Well, there's some talk of the new supreme leader being more radical than his father. There is some talk of Iran coming out of this war and deciding to push ahead with a nuclear program, with a nuclearization program to a bomb that it always denied wanting officially, but is widely suspected to have been pursuing slowly.

11:07Again, at the end of the day, there's means and there's motivation. Even if the motivation increases as a result of this war, the question is whether they have the means to make it real. If you listen to the Israelis and the US tell it, and if you watch the bombings going on in Iran and the decapitation of Iranian leaders, it would appear that they've not only been denied the means, they've been denied the means for years and perhaps for decades hence. All right, going to leave it there. Hey, listen, a long day for you, we know. in a stressful situation. Dan, thank you so much. Dan Williams, Bloomberg News Middle East reporter joining us from Jerusalem.

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13:34Before you trust your policy to protect you, let My Policy Advocate tell you what it really says. Go to mypolicyadvocate.com. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube. President Trump signaled that an escalation in strikes on Iran could come as soon as Tuesday. He heightened fears that imminent military action will derail tentative progress toward restoring energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Here's President Trump just this afternoon in a briefing to reporters.

14:11They want us to keep bombing, even if it jeopardizes because their life is in much greater danger. They want freedom for Iran, but it's very hard for them to protest. I actually tell him. I said, don't go out. I fully understand. That was President Trump just a little earlier from the White House Press briefing room. Back with us, Alex Vitanka, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. He specializes in Iran. He's a senior fellow in Middle East studies at the U.S. Air Force Special Operations School. He teaches over at Wright-Patt Air Force Base. He's the author of several books, including The Battle of the Ayatollahs in Iran, The United States Foreign Policy and Political Rivalry since 1979.

14:47Alex, always good to have you on the program. Look, is the president right? I want to go back to what we just played. He said, they want us to keep bombing even if it jeopardizes because their life is in much greater danger. Is that true? Tim Carroll, it's great to be back with you. Look, I think there's an element of truth in that. I think that has been true from the beginning. But I would say that feeling was much more intense five weeks ago when this war began, where a lot of Iranians, a clear majority of Iranians probably had this hope. And it was just a hope because they weren't sure exactly how it's going to play out.

15:23But the hope was the United States, this mighty superpower is going to intervene and the Islamic Republic will be poof, gone. And we can go back to our lives just like things were before 1979. But as this war has sort of dragged on and more civilian infrastructure have been hit and more Iranian civilians have died, I'm not sure if what the president said is as black and white today was five weeks ago. For sure, a lot of Iranians are still hoping at the end of this war, the Islamic Republic will be gone. The big question they have is, will there be much of an Iran, the country left by the time this war is over?

15:58Yeah, that is actually, I mean, that speaks to then further military action to wipe everything out. And do you think at this point that that's the goal of the United States and Israel, for that matter, after we just have spent the last couple of years watching what has happened to the Gaza Strip and Palestinians between the war between Israel and Gaza. Yeah, so Carol, I mean, that's exactly how people in the region look at it. Look, I need to make a big distinction. Israel and the United States are two different countries, two different approaches to the region. Obviously, you know, they're also sitting in different parts of the world.

16:35Israel is in the region. The United States is across the world. So that's why also they look at things differently. The Israelis have had and continue to have a position where they rather have weak states nearby. They don't care what nature politics you have, as long as you're weak and you don't pose a threat. United States, not so. United States, I think, fundamentally would like to see Iran, a country of 93 million people, huge market, huge hungry market that's been ostracized because of its own policies for almost a half a century. that could come back where this market could open up opportunities for plenty of businesses in all sorts of sectors, from aviation, oil, gas, tourism, you name it.

17:15So the idea of Iran collapsing is not in the interest of the United States. But the problem you have right now is how much and whether at all the United States can actually kind of bring this regime either down or change its ways so you don't end up collapsing the country, if you will. That's where the president is at right now. So is the threat to take out civilian infrastructure a real threat? And the reason I ask is because there was this great interview earlier on Bloomberg surveillance, Gotham Mukunda of Yale. He's also a Bloomberg opinion columnist. And he made this great point. He said, you know, if you take out civilian infrastructure, then it just increases the desire to hold on to the Strait of Hormuz as a leverage point.

18:00If you can. Yeah, if you can. Yeah, I mean, look, I mean, it doesn't take much to scare captains away. I mean, you don't have to hit every single tanker to put a big dent in the flow of traffic. And these drones are not that expensive. And Iran has tens of thousands of them. The country is pretty big. You can fly a drone off from a new point in Iran. And even if you occupy southern Iran, the Iranians can still fly off drones from northern Iran. And I'm not saying they're going to stop all traffic, but it can still pose a serious risk to it. But, you know, the Strait of Hormuz being a leverage point for the Iranians, absolutely that's true and probably will be true until there's a political settlement.

18:42But the other thing that we have to keep in mind, and this is really important for us to keep in mind, I'm sure the president is very conscious of this. The Iranians will hit in kind. If you take out their power system, a power grid and so on, they are going to do the same thing to U.S. allies on the other side of the Persian Gulf, places like Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates. And even if the United States is not necessarily going to be directly impacted, it will have an impact on the United States. You know, there are so many American companies that operate in that part of the world. There are hundreds of billions of dollars in investment and so forth.

19:14So this idea that we can just hit them, but if the Iranians hit the Gulf Arab states, who cares? Well, I think the United States will feel the impact. And obviously, the Gulf states to the extent that they can, I'm sure, trying to be busy and shape Trump administration's next steps here. because they know they're going to be frontline states in the first targets. Yeah, you do wonder about the threshold of pain among the Middle Eastern allies of the United States, if we're getting close to that, as you continue to see destruction there. Having said that, I want to go back to how you kick things off, that Israel wants weaker states nearby, including Iran.

19:47U.S. would like to see maybe a new Iran. I mean, that's a big conflict between the two. Whose war is this? um look we all know the discussion here united states the last five weeks how you know the discussion about how the president was convinced to do this but that's kind of late in the day now to uh but isn't that a problem then in terms of getting yourself out of it um look if the israelis insist on regime change in the sense uh entirely new set of people that run the place, then I could see the United States president having a problem with that because his goals potentially, he's setting the bar far lower than that.

20:31I mean, he's essentially talking about potentially the Venezuela model, which is someone from within this existing regime who's willing to cut a deal that's good enough for the United States. I'm not sure if that's good enough for Israel. And that could become a point of contention. But Carol, end of the day, Israel cannot be in this war with Iran alone. Everyone knows that. The Israelis would admit to that publicly. They're only in this war because the United States is backing them up. And so it doesn't really matter what what Israel feels like on that issue. If the United States feels for its interests, it's time to get out and cut a deal.

21:02Then Israel has no reason or no ability really in the long term to stay in that war alone against the Iranians. Alex, we've spoken to you quite a bit over the last five weeks about different elements of this conflict, including the government and what is left of the government, the IRGC. And I want to go back to the IRGC and sort of like what you've been able to gather based on public disclosures, just based on your own sources about the strength of the IRGC right now. What would you say the status is? Look, they're running the show today more so than before this war. More so. More so. But it's a mistake to assume that IRGC came from nowhere and suddenly is running the place.

21:40I would say IRGC has been sort of gradually becoming a bigger deep state actor in Iran for at least 20 years. But they just have that much more power after Khamenei was assassinated on 20th of February. But I also think it's a mistake to assume just because IRGC people are more in the driver's seat today than before. That means a hardening of their position. I have no reason to doubt that they are ideologically committed. But I would also say, and this is an important point in many ways, they're not suicidal. in the sense that, you know, they might be fanatics from our perspective, but they also want to live for another day.

22:15So the question then is, can there be a middle ground between the U.S. position, the Iranian position, so these guys survive? And a lot of people obviously going to hate that, including the majority of Iranians who are hoping this regime will go as a result of this war. But I don't know if the United States is still ready for that regime change scenario. We heard some things being said by President Trump in his press conference talking about, You know, he was walking back some of his comments from last week. He said a lot of Iran talking about putting Iran back in the Stone Age. He was walking that back.

22:42But he still hasn't articulated a clear cut, you know, regime change policy going forward, because obviously that's a major on the. So to that point, Alex, what happens if tomorrow night at 8 p.m. passes and there's no agreement from Iran and the president doesn't follow through with bombing these civilian targets? What happens then? Well, look, the president has already kind of hinted at this counterproposal that came from Iran, just 10 points that the Pakistanis brought back to the United States. He said it's not good enough, but it's significant. That could give him enough room here for him to say, well, for now, I'm holding back.

23:17He's done that repeatedly. So he could do that. But if, you know, otherwise we're going to stay in this war of attrition for some time. I'm not necessarily sure if that's a good thing for the United States. The Iranians regime is better placed to engage in a war of attrition the United States. So I hope if diplomacy is the way forward, that, you know, there'll be a big push, big jolt to this. So you get something going forward on the diplomatic track that's actually meaningful. We'll put an end to this global economy being take hostage by this conflict. Alex, what does this do for, I just think, you know, the ability for a nation, an entity, a country, the U.S.

23:54or Israel, for that matter, to wage war on another. Like, I just think whether or not, you know, breaking of international law and so on, it's just, you think about the U.S., right? Typically, we would need Congress or it needs to be a threat, Iran. And we know that Iran and the U.S. have not been good for decades. But I'm just curious about what is going on and the actions taken by the U.S., specifically in Israel. You know, Carol, I think if this was any other political system of the Islamic Republic, it would have been much harder for the United States to get away with this. The fact that this is such a horrendous regime with so much blood on its hands, including killing tens of thousands of Iranians just recently in January, kind of gave the U.S.

24:37that kind of space where it could attack essentially. Essentially, I mean, based on international law, and you don't have to take my word for it. That's what jurists out there around the world are saying to attack another country without really an imminent threat being posed by Iran. Even though you don't like the regime going back to Khomeini in 79, there was no imminent threat. And I don't care what the president keeps saying about there was one. There is no evidence there was one. But the fact that he gets away with it and the rest of the world pretty much is accepting it is because of the nature of the Islamic Republic, because it's such a horrendous system to its own people and has been such a bad actor for so long.