Trump, Putin Convene at Ukraine Summit in Alaska

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2:39Carol Massar:All right, joining us now, Elise Giuliano. She is Senior Lecturer in Political Science at Columbia University, also Director of Graduate Studies at Columbia's Harriman Institute for Russian, Eurasian, and East European Studies and Director of the program. She joins us here in studio. this summit, it feels like even if something significant doesn't get done, it's significant in that we are seeing these two leaders meet face to face. Is it? It's certainly a departure from the normal turn of diplomacy. Why do you say that? Because the summit, usually the lower level diplomats hammer out what will be decided ahead of time, and they go into the summit knowing the outcome.

3:22Here, nobody knows what to expect, least of all Trump. And that is not a very, you know, good place to be. We want to know. We don't like the feeling of insecurity. So I think Trump is thinking about this not as a summit, but in a different way, just like, let me talk to him, see what he's thinking, kind of get the sense of things and see if I can make some progress. So for Trump, it's very, you know, typical for his kind of sort of shoot from the personal relations approach, but it's not what, you know, international diplomats would expect from a summit. How would you categorize the current status of the Trump and Putin relationship, particularly because heading into this meeting, there's a lot of columnists out there who are calling this already a diplomatic win for Putin just because he's coming on U.S.

4:11soil and just because he's agreed to this meeting. Well, I would say that it's a win. I don't love that term, but it's a win in the sense that this is a war, not just on the battlefield, but it's a war of narratives. And Russia's narrative is that Ukraine is not a country and Ukrainians are not a people. They're not a nation. And by not having Ukraine at the table, at the summit, and instead having the U.S., it feeds that narrative. Like they're not here because they're not a country. Zelensky He's not here because he's not a legitimate leader of a country. And in fact, you know, for Russia and for Putin, especially Ukraine is part of Russia.

4:53So that's the narrative he's pushing. And the summit kind of feeds into that. And it's a it's a it's a win in the sense that Putin can take that message to his population. He can take it to other audiences around the world, like North Korea, like Iran, like China, and say, you know, look, I'm a superpower. Russia's back in the game. We were a superpower and we're a superpower again.

5:16Carol Massar:Elise, how much of this is about optics, certainly for President Trump as well as President Putin, in terms of European leaders watching, China watching, Iran watching? Like, I just think about, you know, how important it is in terms of how this comes out for each of these leaders and how they are perceived around the world. I think what I was talking about, you know, definitely is about optics for Russia. Even though it's an authoritarian country, they have to be somewhat concerned about what the population thinks. And lately, Ukraine has been taking the war to Russia and disrupting flights. Even some civilians have been killed.

5:50Well, not many civilians. I would say there's been some activity on the territory of Russia, and that makes the war less popular. So it's optics, but it's also, I think, I think that Putin is really trying to get something out of the U.S., trying to convince Trump, you know, that Russia's position is the correct one. And if he can do that, he would make a lot of progress today. Meaning the position of a land grab? Yeah.

6:16Carol Massar:Yeah. Because he already succeeded with the Crimean Peninsula back in 2014. And so here it is a second one. So is that the end game for him to kind of get back? It's not an expansion of territory as he sees it. He just, it's going back to land that used to belong to. So that's his claim that this land used to belong. Right. So part of this is about territory. And that's certainly one of the demands of Russia's demands that they're asking for territory. And they're even asking, making the outrageous claim that they want some of the territory that they don't even control militarily in Donetsk and in some of the other areas in the East.

6:53But there's also a political demand, also outrageous. And those, that political demand is that Ukraine cannot join the West. It cannot join NATO and it cannot join Europe. So again, it's saying Ukraine is not a country. It doesn't have the right to make sovereign decisions for itself.

7:11Carol Massar:We are talking with Elise Giuliano. She's senior lecturer in political science at Columbia University. So having said that, will anything in your view come out of this meeting? If that is the position of President Putin, that's a tough one for the U.S. to even maybe concede to potentially. It's something the U.S. should not concede and use the right term there, because it would be a massive concession. And that's not a place we want to be, right? We want to be defending state sovereignty. We want to be defending European ally, Ukraine. I think that the U.S., though, really has leverage. And Trump really needs to use that leverage.

7:50And he started to. He put a 10 percent, excuse me, 50 percent tariff on India for buying Russian oil and gas. And there's a lot of leverage. Like, let's keep in mind that Russia's economy is the size of Italy. And that was before the sanctions. So there's a lot more the U.S. can do in terms of sanctions. There's a lot more the U.S. can do in terms of armaments and military support for Ukraine. And we, Emily, as you know, at Bloomberg

8:17Carol Massar:have done a lot of reporting about the Russian economy that's really stalling because of that diminishing oil revenue. So he is in economically a tight spot. Yeah. To what extent does that help Trump and the U.S. here and actually finding some success out of this summit? I think if the U.S. and if Trump realizes that Russia is not the Soviet Union, I mean, it does have nuclear weapons. And this is a this is a, you know, a difficult point, but it has a lot of nuclear. It does. And I think that's why the Biden administration was so cautious in its support for Ukraine. But I think that that understanding Russia's economy and in fact that its GDP is dropping and that it's in a tough spot would help the U.S.

9:01to understand the forms of leverage it has. So it could really turn the screws. And I think Trump is coming around.

9:07Carol Massar:President Trump could have turned the screws last Friday. Right. There was a sanctions deadline that came in, went. Exactly. No comment by Trump. Exactly. Right. So it's interesting that instead of commenting on this, on the possibility of further sanctions for China or for India, of these secondary sanctions, instead they said, oh, let's have a bilateral summit, which just seems like a gift for Putin. So this is why Europe and I think Ukraine have been a bit nervous about the outcome of this summit. Is there a possibility at all then, in your view, that Zelensky does get to join a meeting? Maybe not this one, but maybe in the future, particularly if, you know, Putin is deliberately trying to not have him included in these talks.

9:54President Trump seemed to indicate that European allies could come in or President Zelensky. Right. So Trump understands now that it's important for Europe and Ukraine to have a seat at the table in its own war.

10:05Carol Massar:But I think the problem when you say that, but it is kind of crazy when we think about it. But go ahead. It is. It is. But I think the problem, again, is Putin. he has never recognized Zelensky as the legitimate elected leader of Ukraine. And so to sit across for Putin to sit across the table from Zelensky gives Ukraine as a state legitimacy. It gives Zelensky legitimacy. And that undercuts the narrative of Ukraine being, again, an illegitimate state and part of Russia. You are a study of Russia. And I feel like we can study countries, but we can study leaders. And they tell us so much. What do we need to understand about Vladimir Putin?

10:44Well, Putin is a very transactional leader, although in this case... So it's a good match. It can be a good match, and that's why you see this summit happening also, right? Because we hear that Russia is coming with the idea of selling the U.S. on some economic deals, right? So they kind of see that they can do business with Trump. Trump. But at the same time, I think we really do need to understand that Putin has been intransigent from the beginning of this war in terms of Ukraine. He doesn't always know what's, it seems that he doesn't always know what's going on on the battlefield, and he is committed.

11:22And they have said there's not going to be anything signed out of this meeting. They said it. So there's not going to be a ceasefire. There's not going to be a kind of agreement. Perhaps the most we can hope for is a continuation of conversation and perhaps Russia realizing that the Trump administration will start to exert the leverage that it does have.

11:44Carol Massar:It's a really good reminder. I feel like our expectations have been managed in a big way, right? Kind of going into this. So, and I feel like the president has said that over and over again, the idea of the second meeting. So, I guess to be continued, but we got to wait and see what happens here. Elise, thank you so much. Really enjoyed this. Elise Giuliano, Senior Lecturer in Political Science at Columbia University, also Director of Graduate Studies at Columbia's Harriman Institute for Russian, Eurasian, and East European Studies Director of the Program on U.S.-Russia Relations. Joining us in studios.

12:13Carol Massar:Thank you so much. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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12:53Carol Massar:This is the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Now with ChatGPT Work. I'm Carol Masser. DoorDash, the largest food delivery company in the U.S., is building its own delivery drones and has gained the necessary FAA approvals to operate them commercially, the latest in its effort to delegate more orders to robots as a way of cutting delivery times. Bloomberg's Natalie Lung reports the company says it has been conducting pilot programs with various restaurants, some of which have seen their order volume grow during the test period. The effort marks an expansion of DoorDash's in-house robotics efforts to reduce reliance on human couriers for some orders, as their wages constitute a key expense to the business.

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15:17Carol Massar:In the meantime, we've got just about 10 minutes to go until we wrap up the trade on this Friday. Let's get to it with Jimmy Lee. He's founder and CEO of the Wealth Consulting Group. He joins us from San Diego. The firm has about$5.5 billion in assets under management. Jimmy, good to have you here again on Bloomberg. Emily and I are laser focused on Anchorage, Alaska. I think it's safe to say is so is much of the world. I think investors, too, keeping an eye on it. It feels like markets are kind of marking time. Do you care about it? What are you watching out for? Absolutely. I think the whole world's watching what's going on there.

15:52And hopefully, we get a positive outcome and a stop to this war that's been going on way too long. And so, I think from a geopolitical perspective, which has been for me at the top of my list of concerns that can cause market volatility, I think that we're all hopeful that we can get a positive outcome from this meeting. You know, I think I think investors are digesting the recent retail news that we got and and the higher inflation data that we saw recently, probably from the, you know, the readings that we're seeing from tariffs, maybe just the first signs of that kicking in. And I think that for the most part, investors are thinking that we will get lower rates at some point.

16:33I think obviously the percentages of in terms of percentage probability of a cut in September went down a little bit with the strong retail numbers. But I think overall investors are still optimistic and bullish about being in a lower rate environment. So, you know, I think for right now, not a lot of news aside from that. And people are focused on a little bit other things. When it comes to September, does the stock market need a rate cut in that next Fed meeting to actually keep the rally going? You know, I don't think the stock market needs a cut, but I do believe that if we do get a cut, which I'm hopeful for, actually, because I think there are other parts of the economy that that would be it would be important for such as housing that I think it would continue the optimism and maybe get us back to what we saw before the tariff announcements, a little bit more of the animal spirits, Emily, from an investor perspective.

17:29and really I'm fairly bullish. Our firm thought there could be a chance to get to 7 ,000 on S &P 500 even after we had that huge decline in April and we're sticking to our guns that there's a chance that we could get there as a path to getting there and definitely maybe a surprise in terms of more cuts than not could help make that happen and for us, the biggest risk could possibly be a melt up where the market goes up a little bit too quickly, too fast and then we get a meaningful correction after that. Okay, so you don't think that we're seeing animal spirits in the market right now is what you're saying and that it could come back?

18:07Because I see Bitcoin at all-time highs. I see meme stocks rallying. I see the S &P 500 at all-time highs. But do you not see those animal spirits alive and well right now? I do believe and I do agree with you that we've seen traders pushing certain asset classes up, certain investments up, as you've been saying. But I think the institutional investor has not necessarily fully participated in the rally since the lows of October 22. And I think that there's still a lot of concern that the economy could fall apart. And so I don't think you've got all the money invested yet. And I think that sentiment overall is still pretty bad.

18:48And so when you talk to people, I, you know, while we're at, you know, market highs and I know that clients, investors are hopefully looking at their account statements and they're at all time highs. But I still believe there's this, you know, pessimism out there and this kind of this negative sentiment. I think part of that could be from the fear of terrorists and other things that are a little bit unknown still.

19:09Carol Massar:Well, there's a fear of a lot of stuff, right? I mean, the president, Jimmy, as you know, called out, I think it was yesterday, might have been the day before. He's been making lots of comments, but also called out, you know, the 401ks and the market being at a record high. Having said that, you've got the president, you know, continuing to talk about the Fed, talk about Jay Powell, you know, questioning his policy, talk about replacements for him. you've got President Trump thinking about an investment or the Trump administration, according to our reporting and according to people familiar, about a possible investment in Intel, which makes us think about, wow, U.S.

19:48Carol Massar:government, you know, having more and more positions potentially in companies, U.S. companies. And you have the president also talking about semi-tariffs coming soon. There's a lot of stuff coming out of the nation's capital that can be changing dynamics for investors. Is there a net net? Is it good? Is it bad? Is it just another round of uncertainty? I think for as long as we're going to have President Trump in that seat, you're always going to get more of this stuff. And so I don't think that that all of the rhetoric and the news comes as a surprise to anyone is really where I'm at. And I think that the money so far is really on the bet that we're going to be in a lower interest rate environment going forward.

20:33The effects of deregulation will come into play at some point. There'll probably be more activity on the deal front the next few quarters. And as far as some of the tax changes that happened, we think that CapEx spending will go up. And so I think there's a lot of bullishness and optimism around what could be. And I think that's kind of what everybody's waiting for. And as more deals come to fruition on the tariff front, as we've seen, the can continues to get kicked down the road when it comes to China. I don't know if that's going to be the same, obviously, with Canada. But I think as we get more deals happening and nothing really rocks the market, right now volatility is really low.

21:15And so I think that there could be a meaning, not a correction of some sort, but not a meaningful one at the moment. I think you've got more room to go up. And I'm on the thesis that we could get a broadening of the market. So I do believe that you're going to see other parts of the market participate more, kind of like we saw in Q1 this year before we got the tariff announcements.

21:36Carol Massar:Well, can I just ask you something like the investment, potential investment in Intel? Does that make you want to buy Intel or stay away from it? You know, I can't give you a specific, you know, my personal idea on that or a recommendation on that. But I don't necessarily think that it's a bad, bad thing that the government takes position in certain areas that they believe are critical to the future of the United States national security and economy. So chips obviously being very important. You know, so I'm not necessarily opposed to that. I think that's above my pay grade at the moment, but it is different.

22:13But I think that there's a lot of people that believe that it's not a bad idea at all. And so I think you've got, you know, a big group of people that would say that's a good thing to have happen for the United States. Just in the last 30 seconds here, Jimmy, you mentioned the rotation. What what sectors benefit in that rotation trade, at least in the equity market? We're still bullish on cyclical areas like industrial financials, but the rotation that has not participated. I think you're going to see smaller cap stocks do better. Everybody's been waiting for it. I think you're going to see that.