Trump Will Call Putin to Push for Trilateral With Zelenskiy

26:34It has to be properly monitored. So that in itself could be more complicated. And the thing about the ceasefire is it would be important that it not be one in which Russia could then recoup and then attack Ukraine again. So you could have, you know, a 30 day ceasefire, which is what people were talking about a few months ago. And then in the interim, then you could negotiate more of a peace settlement. I just heard one of the people in the press conference talk about maybe some kind of a pause if there were to be a trilateral meeting, which, as I said, I don't think it's very likely soon, but at least to have a pause in the fighting.

27:16But so far, when the Russians have said that they would observe, there was a brief ceasefire that was supposed to be observed just in terms of attacking the energy infrastructure of the other countries. They didn't do it. So even that would have to be very closely monitored to make sure that the Russians didn't violate it. We're speaking with Dr. Angela Stentz, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, also the author of Putin's World, Russia Against the West and With the Rest. A reminder of where we are right now. The president participated in a so-called family photo with European leaders at the White House in the last hour.

27:51He, alongside President Zelensky and Europe's leaders, spoke after their first meeting ended. The second meeting now underway with European and NATO leaders. The president reiterated that he will call Putin after the meetings, and he will try to arrange a three-way meeting after that. Dr. Stent, what do you make of the notion that the president at the end of the speaking to reporters in the Oval Office said that he would call Putin after the meetings? What does that mean to you? What does that symbolize to you? Well, it symbolizes to me that even though he's making an effort now, obviously, with our allies to listen to their concerns as he tries to bring peace, you know, he had apparently quite what he considered a successful summit with President Putin.

28:36And, you know, he wants to keep President Putin informed of what's going on. And so it means he wants to keep up all of those contacts with President Putin and make sure that Putin doesn't change his mind about anything. On the prospects here for a trilateral meeting, do you think that something would have to maybe give way before we see Trump, Zelensky and Putin all in the same room together? Yes. I mean, so far, President Putin has refused to sit down with President Zelensky because he doesn't consider Zelensky his equal. And because, as he keeps saying, Zelensky is an illegitimate president because they haven't had elections in Ukraine since the war began, presidential elections, because there's a war going on with martial law.

29:26So that is what would have to change. It's Putin being willing to do that. And again, you know, he's already been criticized by the more militant bloggers in Russia for sitting down with President Trump and talking about peace. So he in some ways he has to worry about domestic opinion. That is to say that the people who are, you know, fanatically in favor of continuing this war. Right. So how are we supposed to understand, you know, Trump's comments then? He said to reporters today, if everything works out well today, we'll have a trilat. We're going to work with everyone. I mean, how do we interpret that then?

30:09Well, I think that's probably what President Trump would like. And he would like people to believe that he can bring that about. But, you know, he that doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to happen. We don't know what President Putin told him privately in Alaska. Maybe he believes that Putin would be willing to sit down with President Zelensky. But again, those of us that follow this very closely and follow what Putin says and does, we'd be more skeptical about it. On a weapons front, the idea of the U.S. supporting Ukraine through weapons sales or weapons sales to European allies. Does that continue?

30:46Does the U.S. have the appetite for that? Do politicians have the appetite for that? J.D. Vance, the vice president, has been outspoken about this, at least before he became vice president. Well, we've barely started the process by which the Europeans are going to be purchasing weapons from the United States and then giving them to Ukraine. There's been an agreement on it. My sense is that it hasn't actually begun yet because the Europeans are waiting to get these weapons from the United States. And I think that will continue as long as President Trump's MAGA base understands that in fact, manufacturing those weapons and selling them to the Europeans, these are American jobs.

31:25I mean, much of the assistance that the US has given to Ukraine, even since the war began in February of 2022, has been, you know, enhanced the American economy and given Americans who work in the arms industry and things like that, a job. So I think that that would continue. I think that what is more difficult, I think, for President Trump would be to say that we'll supply weapons to Ukraine without making them pay for it. Just zooming out here, what do you think are the key takeaways that are going to come out of the meeting with the EU? What is at stake for the EU leaders here? And when we're talking about this, you know, this meeting tomorrow, what do you think we're going to be talking about?

32:14Well, I think the EU leaders really would like to have a ceasefire in place, even though President Trump has now said maybe we don't need one. That'll be one thing they'll focus on. And then I think the security guarantees, talking about, well, if there is, if Ukraine is forced to make some kind of territorial concession to Russia, then are we sure that there will be real security guarantees which are backed up by the United States? One thing that we were talking about before we heard from these European leaders and before we heard from Zelensky was how earlier the European leaders actually met ahead of time at I believe it was at the Ukrainian embassy.

33:00But do not quote me on that. I'm just looking through my notes here. they met ahead of their meeting at the White House today to to get aligned on what their goals were. What would you say their goals are? Obviously, they want an end to the war, but what do they want that end to look like? What are they unified on? Well, they did meet at the Ukrainian embassy earlier today. You can look at the pictures of it. Great. Yeah. I mean, they want to make sure that this war ends in such a way that Russia, I mean, it's easy to say, as President Trump did will never again attack Ukraine, given hundreds of years of history.

33:38I think you have to be cautious about saying that. But to ensure that for the foreseeable future, Russia will not be tempted to attack Ukraine again, and that Russia, under Putin even, will be willing to accept an independent, sovereign Ukraine, which is free to make its own decisions if we put the NATO issue side about where to align itself in foreign policy. So they want to make sure not only that the war ends, but that it won't start again in two or three years. I want to get your thoughts on NATO here, just as we talk about, you know, this meeting with the EU. Is there any chance that we would see Ukraine get added to NATO?

34:21Or is all of this kind of making the chances lessen. Or would that be a precondition on Vladimir Putin's side that he says, no, you cannot add Ukraine to NATO? Well, Putin, I mean, that's one of the conditions he has, which is that Ukraine can't join NATO. But I don't think anyone's going to agree to that. I think what the US side would say is not for the time being. And I think certainly President Trump has said that. Might Ukraine join NATO in the future? That's quite possible. It'll depend on what happens to NATO. It'll depend on what happens after the end of the war. So it's not on the horizon.

35:05But also, I think you can't expect Ukraine or its European backers to say that it will never join NATO. Why do you think that European leaders are right now all visiting the White House three and a half years into this? Is it President Trump who's brought them together? Why didn't they do this two weeks after the war started, a month after the war started, a year after the war started? Why is this happening now? Well, because I think under the Biden administration, first of all, they believed that the U.S. was giving a lot of support to Ukraine. and they let the U.S. do that. They were still in the mindset that the U.S., you know, was the most powerful country, had all the weapons.

35:49So I think it's a combination of factors. I think it's because the war has gone on for so long. Then you have President Trump coming in and saying he's going to end the war quickly, also questioning NATO, also questioning why the U.S. should be supporting NATO, all of these things. I think what happened at the end of February with the disastrous Oval Office meeting. The previous one with President Zelensky was a wake-up call. But I think the real wake-up call is understanding that they cannot any longer rely on the United States to support them for their security or really to provide for their security in the way that it used to, and that they have to take much more of a burden on themselves.

36:30And then I think the other factor is clearly realizing after the Alaska summit, but even before then, that they weren't quite sure that President Trump, you know, wasn't willing to tell Ukraine that it had to exceed to Russian demands, which would, you know, could also be quite dangerous for Europe. So I think it's a combination of factors. Do you see it as a good sign, though? I do, because I think that President Trump, first of all, will understand now that the Europeans are really quite united about this and that they're back in Ukraine. So, Dr. Sten, I want to end the interview with the question that I always ask you, and I've asked you this for the last three and a half years, and I want to know if your answer has changed based on today, how does this war end?

37:13I don't think anyone knows how it ends yet. I mean, the best solution would be a negotiated settlement, which doesn't take too long, which doesn't involve too many concessions, and which guarantees that Russia will not in the near future again try and attack Ukraine. Is it closer now to ending than at any point that we then we spoke to you in the past three and a half years? Possibly. I mean, there's too much that we don't know, but possibly it is. Yeah. OK, want to let you go. You've been so generous with your time today, Dr. Stent. Really appreciate you joining us. That's Dr. Angela Stent. She's senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

37:52She's the author of Putin's World, Russia Against the West and with the rest. She's also a former national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council. She also served in the Office of Policy Planning at the U.S. Department of State. She's been a go-to voice over the last three and a half years for us, as we've reported on Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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39:31To help support healthy hair, skin, nails, bones, and joints. Available in the classic collagen peptides. Collagen and protein shakes. And new Vital Proteins Collagen Sparkling Waters. So you can stay vital, stay you. Visit VitalProteins.com to learn more and where to buy. These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. Hi, I'm Tom Keen, inviting you to join me for the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. It's about making you smarter every business day. I'm Paul Sweeney. We bring you complete coverage of stocks, bonds, commodities, even crypto.

40:04All the information you need to excel in the markets. And I'm Alexis Christophorus. Listen to us for essential conversations with the smartest names in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. That's the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Subscribe today on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen. This is the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 2 p.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say, Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130. Shares of the green hydrogen company Plug Power closed 2.5 % lower last Tuesday.

40:46That was the first day of trading after the company reported net revenue for the second quarter that came in above estimates. But the bottom line was the issue. EPS missed the average analyst estimate. Plug provides hydrogen products, including electrolyzers, hydrogen transport, storage and dispensing solutions and more to a variety of customers, including Walmart, Amazon, Home Depot, Airbus, AT &T, Kroger, FedEx, PG &E, Coca-Cola and more. We've got back with us Andy Marsh, the CEO of Plug Power. He joins us from just outside of Albany. Andy, always good to have you on the program. I want to start with your customers.

41:21I mentioned just about 10 of them. The list goes on. What are you hearing from them in a world where green energy is no longer sort of the buzz phrase, the buzz word? There's not the same government incentives for this stuff that there was in the last administration. What are you hearing from them right now? So the last part of that, Tim, is not true. The incentives for 48E, which is the tax credit for fuel cells in the last bill, is actually much better than it was. Well, I was talking about green energy as sort of a monolith, just to be clear. Yeah. So when I look at first globally, the incentives for hydrogen and fuel cells in green energy remains robust.

42:13And if you look at our business in the second quarter, our revenue in Europe for electrolyzers and all of it's really primarily Europe actually tripled to forty five million dollars from what it was a year ago. And here in the United States, when we look at the tax credit landscape, we actually see it better today than it was a year ago. Why is that then? Well, I think because when you looked at the tax credit for fuel cells, it was not well structured or positioned in 48E. And we see an extension of what was essentially the ITC, which was extended the last time under President Trump in 2018, in the latest bill, which extends credit for fuel cells, which is used by Amazon, Walmart, and many of the customers you mentioned through 2032.

43:10So we're actually pretty thrilled with what happened for hydrogen, especially in the last bill. When you look at Plug Power's earnings, the margins are still negative, but they have improved from the last year. What are your thoughts on just how much more runway you guys need before Plug Power is consistently profitable? Yeah. So, you know, we I think you hit on the point. You know, we moved gross margins from a year ago by over 60 percent. And we are targeting to be gross margin zero by the fourth quarter. And there's a clear map with our hydrogen plants and the improvements we've seen in service, and more importantly, selling more.

43:55And that really helps us a great deal. And we're targeting being EBITDA positive by the end of next year. And I think with our Project Quantum Leap, where we really focus on cost and selling, that we are on the right track. And I think you're beginning to see it in the financials. Even the MISW and EPS was write-downs, which were non-cash write-downs associated with our plans that really aligned the business for the future to be successful. What's the U.S. market right now for green hydrogen? That's hydrogen made from water using clean electricity to power the electrolysis process. So to be straight, it is a bit slower than what you see in Europe and other places.

44:41You know, our primary focus for electrolyzers are really Europe, Australia, where the climate's right. But we actually operate the largest green hydrogen, liquid hydrogen plant in the world at the moment in Georgia. And when I looked, I reviewed this morning our demand for hydrogen from the second quarter to the fourth quarter, We actually see that our daily usage go up from 55 tons per day to about 67 tons per day by the end of the year. So we're using our plants. We're creating green hydrogen. We're involved in some blue hydrogen projects. So we feel comfortable about the long-term trajectory and even near-term trajectory for hydrogen in the United States.

45:28Talk a little bit more about that demand and where it's coming from. Are you seeing customers, you know, pivoting from other sources of energy or are you seeing, you know, just increasing need for more sources of energy? And that's what's really driving your growth here. That's actually a real good question, because when we look at the world, the United States, with what we've deployed already about, that's, you know, 275 sites in our material handling business across the U.S. We've actually taken off the grid approximately 500 megawatts of electricity. And as I think everybody knows, it has become more and more challenging to bring electricity to, you know, there's over a three and a half year backlog to get electricity to facilities.

46:25You know, typical distribution center, we take off two to three megawatt off the grid, which can then be used for things like increasing freezer capabilities. So if you think about if you're a food retailer and you want to sell more frozen goods, which is a growth area, one way you can increase the size of your freezer and not have to worry about the power needs is actually use fuel cells and hydrogen from Plug Power. We're speaking with Andy Marsh, the CEO of Plug Power, joining us from just outside of Albany. Andy, I want to go back to regulatory issues, tax credits, and that sort of thing, because you did say that demand is better.

47:11We were in a better position than you were a year ago. Our own Will Wade and team reporting that a year ago, credits were expected to help lead about 1.2 million metric tons of annual green hydrogen production by 2030. That's according to BNF, our in-house Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Now, projects with just 150 ,000 tons of production capacity are expected to qualify for the incentives, dramatically reducing anticipated U.S. output. This is after the Trump administration's tax and spending legislation significantly limited tax credits to produce the fuel. How is that affecting you? Well, when I look at I'm already using the tax credits.

47:52We expect to have online our additional Texas plant by 2028 before they expire, which allows us to use those credits through 2032. I think when we look at our own needs, we're looking at other expansion opportunities. We think that we'll be able to generate the hydrogen to meet our customers' needs and be able to take tax credits through 2032. So, quite honestly, I'm very comfortable with the present legislation. Back in January, there was a Bloomberg News story about the White House confirming a$1.6 billion loan guarantee for Plug Power to build hydrogen plants. Have you guys received that loan yet?

48:46And how crucial is support like that to continue to grow Plug Power? It's important, but it's not, you know, we will still move ahead with building plants, ultimately. We're focused, and I've been down to the DOE recently, and we're working on details to make sure we can pull down funding for the plant in Texas, which is a plant that gets very, very low cost electric energy from Nextera wind farm. When we take a look at that, we're working through the final details to start being able to pull down funding from the DOE. I know they've canceled many projects. We haven't been on the cancel list, and we have a good relationship.

49:38I think the Trump administration and their goals of being energy dominant. You know, the world's going to want green SAF. The world's going to want green ammonia. The U.S. is well positioned to be the leader in providing those fuels, and green hydrogen is critical to becoming energy dominant for the long term. Additionally, hydrogen generation is really important for national security. I mean, next to SpaceX, all the vehicles use hydrogen. So really think about the long-term benefits. And then on top of that, when you think about hydrogen, over 30 % of retail food moved through a plug power fuel cells.

50:23Boy, you don't want that disrupted overnight. No, you don't. Andy, we only have about a minute and a half left, and I want to talk about the stock price. It's down about 97 % since the 2021 highs. highs. Even though you're a relatively small company, you're still among, at least today, the most actively traded stocks with 54.7 million dollars or million shares rather trading today. It's massive. The volume this year has been massive. You've got 28 percent of your shares floated. What's your message to investors and traders right now? Well, I think I would tell them, it's a great opportunity to come in.

51:00You can look at the financials, revenue growing at 20%, gross margin improving dramatically. The deployments in Europe where the electrolyzer industry is really happening today has tripled in the past year. I think this is the opportunity to successfully enter the stock. It's one of the reasons our CFO has made significant investments. And I'm putting about 25 % of my salary to work buying stock, actually 50 % of my salary to work buying stock every week. Andy, thanks for coming on. Appreciate you taking the time this afternoon. Always good to check in with you. And it has been quite a few months since we last spoke.

51:44So don't be a stranger. Come back soon. Andy Marsh, CEO of Plug Power, joining us from just outside of Albany. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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53:30Hi, I'm Tom Keen, inviting you to join me for the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. It's about making you smarter every business day. I'm Paul Sweeney. We bring you complete coverage of stocks, bonds, commodities, even crypto. So all the information you need to excel in the markets. And I'm Alexis Christophorus. Listen to us for essential conversations with the smartest names in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. That's the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Subscribe today on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast.

54:05Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. or watch us live on YouTube. I'm driving in my car. How about you let me drive? Oh, no, no, no, no. This is not a toy. Who's gonna drive you home? Honey, please, I'll do the driving. Drive home. Excuse me, I want to drive. You drive, stay in prison. It's the question that drives us. You drive me crazy. This is the drive to the close. The punk to music will drive us till the dawn. On Bloomberg Radio. All right. Welcome back, guys. It's time for the drive to the close. We're here today with Andrew Cry.

54:47He's co-chief investment officer at Crescent Grove Advisors. It's got about$5 billion in AUM. Andrew's joining us from Milwaukee. We've been talking all about geopolitics today. We've been talking about the meeting at the White House with Ukrainian President Zelensky, Trump, and a number of other European leaders. So we have to start there, Andrew. How are you factoring in geopolitical risk into your investment strategy right now? You know, I would say from our perspective, I think the markets have largely been desensitized to the geopolitical circumstances that we found ourselves in now for the last several years, whether you look at Russia, Ukraine, you look at the situation in the Middle East.

55:31Perhaps there's a little bit of excess risk premium that could still be wrung out if we were to find some sort of resolution over the coming weeks and months. But nonetheless, we tend to think it's more about just the fundamental economic drivers, the business cycle, the Fed. We're more focused, let's say, on Jackson Hole this week than we are on what's happening with these geopolitical negotiations that are happening. Let's go to the Federal Reserve and to Friday where we'll hear from Fed Chair Jay Powell. Emily, remind me, what was the Fed theme this year? Oh, I don't have it in front of me, the title, but it's labor.

56:06It's about labor. And some fancy words. We spoke to Jim Bianco earlier about the changing labor market. And I mean, he's kind of just blowing my mind with this idea that if we don't have immigration into the U.S., the numbers that we'll see when it comes to the monthly jobs report will be very tiny. And I'm wondering how you're looking at the labor market. Obviously, that's half of the Fed's dual mandate. What does Jay Powell say about it? How does it shift in this in this no immigrant immigration environment? Yeah, I think that's a key factor to look at for sure. I think you've ended up in this situation where we're kind of low hiring, low firing.

56:49I think that's actually a phrase he's used now several times. But we've got a situation where one of the metrics we look at is continuing claims as a percentage of the labor force. It's ticked up modestly, but it's not anything that's terribly concerning, particularly in a historical context. context. You look at, you know, sort of initial claims. Yeah, they've moved up somewhat. But again, not to the point where it's ultimately an acute issue, we would say, again, from a labor perspective. So I think it's something that the Fed's clearly watching. And you go back to the jobs report most recently in the revisions that we saw.

57:22Needless to say, they're going to be concerned about it. And that was a real headline grabber. But I think they've got this dual mandate and they're going to have to balance, you know, sort of a pick your poison scenario here where Do they want to support the labor market that might be softening somewhat? Or do they want to risk inflation ticking back up because they're cutting and providing stimulus in an environment where inflation hasn't really been tamed at this point? I think there's still a lot of uncertainty around the tariff impact on inflation. Yeah, there is certainly a lot of kind of, I guess, just still lack of clarity on how the tariffs are being passed on to companies and being passed on to consumers.

58:02What's your assessment right now of whether consumers are feeling the effects of tariffs? Or have you seen at least in the earnings that the companies are, I guess, the party able to absorb the tariff increases? Yeah, I think what we've seen so far is that there's clearly a lagged effect here that's happening. There's an element where companies are able to absorb some of the price increases. You know, I think it's yet to be seen the full impact. And if it's if we're able to kind of spread this over a long enough period in terms of these incremental pricing increases along the way, then maybe we don't see a real uptick in inflation in sort of a meaningful, acute way.

58:45Kind of, you know, this this concerning number where CPI spikes, PCE spikes, those sorts of things. But we just slowly kind of adjust and see, you know, this not a step function change again, but just an insidious level of sort of inflation building in the system. And then, you know, I think part of the argument that the Fed's making here, too, for being a little bit more, I guess, cautious about this whole scenario is that it could really just be a one time reset then as well. Right. And then we start going to comps next year on a year over year basis. And once we've gotten through this initial wave of the tariff adjustments within pricing, you know, then really it's all baked into the cake at that point.

59:21And we're kind of back to where we started in terms of figuring out the balance between what's fundamental inflation, what's for that underlying structural level of inflation, and then what's the labor market doing. And then they're balancing their dual mandate and their policy settings around those two factors. So it sounds like what you're saying, Andrew, is you don't find the tariffs being inflationary. Well, for sure, they will be inflationary to a degree. I think it's this idea that we were going to see this one time or really acute sense of a three-month period where inflation spikes really meaningfully.

59:50I don't think the evidence is suggesting that that's what we're going to see. It's going to be spread out over several months, which I guess tells us that we just have to be a little bit more patient in terms of understanding the full impact of these tariff levels, which, mind you, are still changing as well. I think that's part of the other issue. So, OK, so how should investors and traders think about that? like in the sense of how should they think about them still changing or should they think about them being, well, President Trump's favorite word in the dictionary is tariff. So they're here at least while he's president.

1:00:24Yeah, I think we've reverted back to some level now of what we can expect going forward in terms of, you know, we look at the most extreme version that was put forth going back to the March, April Liberation Day discussions. Right. And we've reverted back to something that's not nearly as extreme as that. So if there's some band, I guess, around where we are today, OK, that's reasonable enough. But I think from investors' perspectives, we start to zoom out and look at sort of derivative effects of everything related to not only tariff policy, but broader trade policy, broader America First policy.

1:00:53And for us, that's still the sort of incremental shift away from dollar assets, from U.S. markets, looking at things that might be cheaper in non-U.S. markets in particular, and areas where we've potentially got a catalyst as well. So like Europe, for instance, where now they're loosening the fiscal purse strings. They've got consumers that didn't spend down all of their COVID stimulus that are still pretty well-heeled from a savings perspective that could support their economy were they to fall on a little bit of a hard time. But we just tend to think that there's an interesting catalyst in non-U.S.

1:01:26markets. And again, this idea that the dollar may not be kind of the end-all be-all that it once was, this haven currency, for a variety of reasons, not least of which is the policies we've talked about. Andrew Cry, co-chief investment officer at Crescent Grove Advisors. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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