In short
Episode topic: Debate on whether the Fed will raise rates after a hotter-than-expected CPI print, and how energy prices could keep inflation sticky; includes a separate segment on 9/11 remembrance and interviews about Houthis/Iran-linked shipping risks.
Guests and backgrounds
Ira Jersey, Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence (Princeton bureau). Frank Moncrief, Bloomberg News Macro Strategist (former commodity trading house experience). Kevin Hassett, White House National Economic Council Director (quoted). Veena Ali Khan, Bloomberg News reporter (ex–International Crisis Group Middle East analyst). Mike Codella, NYPD detective sergeant, assigned to World Trade Center Building 7. Joe Daniels, former president/CEO of the National September 11th Memorial and Museum.
Key claims
CPI beat is driven by cell phones; if the Fed skips next week, long Treasury yields could retest highs and 10-year could approach 5.02%. Energy-driven inflation expectations and wage/price pass-through are the main Fed risk; diesel is at record highs. Oil market “skew” suggests Hormuz risk is now more core than tail.
Notable examples
AAA gas average $4.30/gal; diesel above $6/gal; 1980s and 2022 wage-push parallels; oil spike tied to Middle East attacks and Hormuz/Bab al-Mandab shipping choke points. 9/11 guests discuss Building 7 collapse, prolonged cough from debris, and museum “living memorial” approach.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOShow Introduction and CPI Discussion
0:57 to 1:38
Introduction to the show and discussion of CPI and inflation.
“Never bet against American grit or American energy.”
Kevin Hassett's Insights on Inflation
1:38 to 2:36
Analysis of inflation data and its implications from Kevin Hassett.
“reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy.”
Discussion with Ira Jersey on Rates
2:36 to 3:17
Ira Jersey discusses the implications of inflation data on interest rates.
“If you look at the three-month average, then you're basically hitting the core target.”
Fed's Credibility and Rate Hike Predictions
3:17 to 5:42
Roundtable discussion on the Fed's credibility and potential rate hikes.
“I want to start, though, with you, Ira, in terms of what we got on the latest inflation print, what it tells us about U.S.”
Energy Prices and Inflation Expectations
5:42 to 9:09
Exploration of the relationship between higher energy prices and inflation expectations.
“Like, what's the discussion you think going on?”
Impact of Consumer Sentiment on Economic Growth
9:09 to 11:28
Discussion on consumer sentiment and its implications for economic growth.
“So, you know, speaking of sentiment, we did get a consumer sentiment read this morning and we saw U.S.”
Final Thoughts on Interest Rates and Market Reaction
11:28 to 14:00
Final discussion on the implications of rising rates and market reactions.
“I'm just curious in your view how sticky you think these higher prices will be.”
Current Events: Oil Pipeline and Market Dynamics
15:34 to 16:25
Discussion on the closure of Saudi Arabia's oil pipeline and market impact.
“Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern.”
Understanding the Houthis and Regional Implications
16:29 to 20:55
Insights into Houthi demands and their regional significance in the Iran conflict.
“And we've got a great voice to help us on exactly that, like an understanding of what is going on.”
Examination of Houthi-Iran Relations
20:55 to 23:34
Exploration of the evolving relationship between Houthis and Iran.
“So I think at the moment, everyone's waiting to see how Saudi Arabia will respond.”
Show all 21 chapters
Personal Account: 9/11 Experience
23:34 to 28:06
Mike Codella shares his harrowing experiences during the 9/11 attacks.
“She is a reporter for Bloomberg News, previously working as a Middle East analyst at the International Crisis Group over in Washington, D.C.”
Surviving the Darkness: A Personal Account
28:06 to 30:02
A survivor recounts their harrowing experience immediately following a disaster.
“Were you, did you have to wait for someone to help you out?”
Healing After Tragedy: The Community Response
30:02 to 31:06
Discussion on the aftermath of 9/11 and the collective hope for survivors.
“You know, for a long time after, I'm not sure if it was quite a year, but at least for many months, I had a cough that I couldn't get rid of.”
Reflecting on 25 Years Since 9/11
31:06 to 33:27
A reflective conversation on the impact and memory of 9/11 over two decades.
“You know, I talk about the heroes that are really the unsung heroes from the United States, from this country.”
Honoring Victims and Heroes of 9/11
33:27 to 35:09
A tribute to the victims and unsung heroes of the September 11 attacks.
“You know, when the saying, never forget, when we were saying that years ago, So I never thought that we would forget.”
Honoring Victims and Heroes of 9/11
35:13 to 36:11
A tribute to the victims and unsung heroes of the September 11 attacks.
“So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises.”
Teaching the Lessons of 9/11 to Future Generations
37:15 to 42:00
Discussion on the importance of remembering and educating about 9/11.
“You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast.”
Reflections on 9/11 and Its Impact
42:00 to 45:50
Explore the personal and collective memories of 9/11 and its lasting effects.
“They always leave, not only with an emotional feeling, but this idea that in the aftermath, people came together to support one another.”
Building a Living Memorial
45:50 to 47:57
Learn about the design and significance of the 9/11 Memorial and Museum.
“you thought about it as a living memorial and adding to it as the story continued to unfold.”
Anniversary Reflections and Community Gatherings
47:57 to 48:16
Hear about the emotional reunions and commemorations held on the anniversary of 9/11.
“It's a very heavy and emotionally charged day for so many, certainly here at Bloomberg, but throughout the nation.”
Anniversary Reflections and Community Gatherings
48:53 to 49:16
Hear about the emotional reunions and commemorations held on the anniversary of 9/11.
“Aging is real, and so are the benefits of adding vital proteins, collagen, peptides to your daily routine.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Bloomberg Businessweek Daily is brought to you by HPE, bringing you the self-driving network, a network that's self-optimizing, self-healing, and self-protecting, and only continues to get smarter. Learn more at hpe.com slash networking.
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0:57Never bet against American grit or American energy. Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.
1:31Carol Massar:Podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenevek on Bloomberg Radio. Well, monetary markets see a Fed hike. Well, the money markets, I should say, see a Fed hike next week as an almost done deal amid elevated inflation data. Treasury yields fell from multi-year highs. As for inflation, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett doesn't seem all that worried.
2:13He joined Bloomberg this morning. If you look at the last three months, even with a slightly disappointing number, core CPI is two. And so in the model that I would be using, I would say that you just about hit the target and inflation is decelerating. Now, what the Fed decides to do, maybe they decide that they're going to do something that put risks on this side or that side. It's up to them. But frankly, I think that inflation is clearly decelerating, even with this slight uptick this month. If you look at the three-month average, then you're basically hitting the core target.
2:45Carol Massar:That, of course, was White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett this morning on Bloomberg. Let's get into it. Let's talk that CPI print. Let's talk inflation overall. Let's talk rates. Let's talk the Fed. With us to do that is Ira Jersey, Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. He's out there in our Princeton News Bureau. Also with us right here in studio, Bloomberg News Macro Strategist, Frank Moncrime. And, of course, you know, he previously worked at commodity trading houses, several of them, and so has a unique trading perspective. We love this kind of roundtable to have.
3:17Carol Massar:I want to start, though, with you, Ira, in terms of what we got on the latest inflation print, what it tells us about U.S. inflation here in the United States and what it really means maybe for rates longer term. Yeah, a little bit higher than expected. You know, there was one, you know, cell phones really wound up driving a lot of the beat. But, you know, almost every single print that you get, you can point to one or two things that kind of drive the inflation. So you can't completely ignore that and ignore the print. I think the important thing here for the rates market in particular is if the Fed doesn't hike next week, which is now 90 plus percent price the last time that I looked, I think the 10 year, 20 year, 30 year treasuries are really vulnerable.
4:03And you could wind up seeing new highs for all of those for the recent cycle if the Fed doesn't actually hike interest rates. So I think that I think at this point would be my big fear. And, you know, maybe if you really think that they're not going to move next week, which there are still some people that I've talked to today that think they won't, then there's some trades to do there for sure. Frank, do you think the Fed is going to move next week? I think they should, and I think they will. And the reason being that, you know, when you've got to print like this, right, you've got to obviously fulfill your mandate on the price side of the mandate, but also the credibility portion of the mandate, which has been in place of mandate for the Fed now.
4:42Credibility is the biggest risk for the Fed. And I think when the market is saying 90 % probability that you need to hike, it's almost impossible to try to push against that. It's just going to create way too much volatility in the marketplace, especially when you're seeing oil prices, seeing another round of upside convexity given the move that we've seen yesterday and over the past week.
5:03Carol Massar:Is that the tone, too, when you guys are typing away on the macro blog? Are most folks on the street saying, he's got to do it. They got to do it. And it makes sense fundamentally. I think it does make sense fundamentally. But it's been very difficult to kind of, I guess, the market is saying 90%, why not 100%. The reason why you still have some folks that think that they would go, I think, is because of the political dynamics within the Fed. And even between the Fed and Treasury, some of that interference happening there. So I think that's why people are keeping kind of a non-zero probability of them staying pat next week.
5:39But there should be a high-king, all things considered.
5:41Carol Massar:Ira, what does the debate look like inside the Fed right now? How do you see it? Like, what's the discussion you think going on? And is there more weighted towards, is it not just credibility, but fundamentally that the Fed should raise rates? So I don't know if they necessarily need to, but I think, firstly, let me say, look, it was 50-50 going into this meeting anyway. So the question is, you really only need one member to kind of change. And I think that this data was enough. And along with last week's employment report, you put those two things together, and there's going to be at least one member who will be like, yeah, maybe we should hike just in case.
6:18maybe want to just undo what we did late last year and get back toward maybe a neutral rate that's more like 4 % or 4.25%. And that's what the market's effectively priced at this point anyway. Now, Kevin Warsh was pretty clear when he says he wants the market to guide us and give us information. So it'd be really, really difficult, I think, for the Fed at this point, especially if we continue to have this 90-plus percent priced rate hike not to go at this point. And I think that a lot of members will be like, look, we don't want to disappoint the markets. The question is then, what do they guide to next?
6:56Because we do get the dots, and we do get the summary of economic projections. And of course, Kevin Warsh will say something after the press conference, whether or not that gives us a hint as to what they're going to do next is a different story, of course, because he doesn't want to give forward guidance. But he might have to at least say something about it. Ira, I wanted to get your view on where energy fits into this, given where we are with oil prices down a little bit today, but up sharply this week. We're also seeing, as a result, gas prices, national average from AAA,$4.30 a gallon. Diesel prices at a record above$6 a gallon for the first time.
7:33That's nationally. I mean, you go to California and you add a couple dollars to that price of a gallon of diesel, Ira. The Fed can't bring down gas prices. So I'm wondering how you view the energy dynamic and the rise in this specific commodity with what the Fed is going to do next week and then for the remainder of the year. Well, so the issue for the Fed is does this higher energy environment start to feed into inflation expectations, right? So let's say that we wind up staying near these current levels in gasoline and that gets into the psyche of workers. Those workers will then demand higher wages and those higher wages can feed into more persistent inflation.
8:16This is similar to what happened back in the early 1980s. Now, then it was more systemic because it was union contracts that tracks CPI and things like that. So that was way more of a wage push. But quite frankly, remember, in 2022, something very similar happened. People switch jobs in order to make an extra 10%, 15 % in their paycheck. And we see that in the data. That is observable. And I think that that is something that the Fed will worry about. So it's not so much that the Fed thinks that they can do anything at all about the supply shock, because they admit all the time that their policies affect demand much more directly.
8:54But they have to think about that inflation expectations component. And so that's another reason to think that they'll say, OK, limited hikes, 50, 75 basis points, but don't expect it to be, you know, have to hike up back up to over 5 percent again.
9:09Carol Massar:So, you know, speaking of sentiment, we did get a consumer sentiment read this morning and we saw U.S. consumer sentiment fall in early September due to higher gasoline prices and renewed trade tensions. So consumers now expect prices to rise 4.6 percent over the next year, saw costs rising at an annual rate of 3.4 percent over the next five to 10 years. Frank, there's a lot of things that go into, you know, if you think about something, you're worried about something, consumer spending is so important, right, to economic growth that maybe you hold back. So how do we roll that into kind of maybe Fed thinking and where the economy goes next?
9:45Carol Massar:Because I keep hearing everybody talking about U.S. economy doing just fine. Sure. That's actually a very good point. I think that the Fed actually has two mandates, as you know, inflation and full employment, full employment rather. and when the Fed actually goes out to join in that policy, it needs to be respectful of sequencing. I think the problem that's in front of us now is inflation. So we have to attack that problem first. If we get to a point where the economy looks like it's falling off the cliff, we're starting to weaken materially, depending on what the inflation picture looks at that particular time, then they can adjust course.
10:16But right now, the problem that's in front of us is inflation. And to Ira's point, 2022, people seem to have a bit of amnesia with this, but we remember the transitory rhetoric. It was around energy prices. You've got to be really careful with that. The pass-through effects are really there. It's hitting diesel. Diesel is the ultimate inflation transmission vector of energy spikes. Diesel is at an all-time high. We didn't have that particular dynamic back in 2022, so this is very different.
10:43Carol Massar:And plays through the economy completely when you think about the transportation sector. Transportation, fuel, you're seeing inflation expectation on the U-Mish data today, speaking to that. So I think we need to be very, very careful here. And my sense is that it could be if we continue to see oil pushing up with the type of upside convexity that we're seeing, I think we're going to really start seeing this sort of duration to inflation trade happening, meaning, you know, real money accounts will start saying, you know, I understand what the Fed is doing, trying to manage, you know, this spike in yields, et cetera.
11:17And maybe this could be successful now. But this is not the time to really think twice. I need to be hedged against inflation. And I'm going to shed my duration at risk to actually get some inflation protection via commodities, specifically oil. Well, Frank, as Carol mentioned, you worked at commodity trading houses earlier in your career. I'm just curious in your view how sticky you think these higher prices will be. I know so much depends on what happens in the straight-up form moves. But what are you hearing? Well, actually, we kind of looked at oil markets specifically. And we realized that the, without getting too technical here, but the skew, meaning the upside skew in oil, typically when you see these spikes, you know, these skew tend to kind of normalize very quickly.
11:58But on this particular, with this particular episode, we've seen the skew sort of gradually just settle down at a higher base. So this says to me that the market looks at Hormuz, which used to be a tail risk, as more of a core risk now. And the question now is what actually turns out being the new tail risk. And it seems like there is a tail out there that's likely to kind of refatten, right? And that tail really is destruction in infrastructure and the persistence of this disruption. So we haven't really seen that. So I think that, yeah, we're in for a pretty sticky inflation, especially between now and the midterms, where it looks like it's a stalemate, where it's kind of who blinks first.
12:41and there's no more jawboning in the market anymore. If you've noticed, I mean, it's prices are now led to their own devices and trying to solve for demand destruction, really. So that's the rule for you.
12:52Carol Massar:So Ira, come on in on our last minute here. I mean, I'm looking at 4.9567 on the 10-year note. Is 5 % just a matter of time? I mean, and should we, like, and I do wonder, you know, So when does the higher rate environment start to eat into stock market gains, earnings, growth? Like, when do we start to see what's the rate at which the economy can't deal with it anymore? Or are we there? Yeah, well, I'll let others talk about, you know, earnings and how maybe margins have been coming down or valuations have been coming down a little bit. But, yeah, 5.02 percent is the big number for the 10-year, right?
13:33If we get back up to there, not a big surprise. It's not very far away. You break above that, and there's going to be a lot of stops that are going to get hit, and you wind up seeing probably a bigger knee-jerk move above that 5.02%. We're at a point here where I don't think from what's driving growth today in GDP terms is really going to be affected very much at all by another 25, 50 basis points higher in 10-year yields. But it does affect the household sector, and that obviously is important to the Fed and everyone else.
14:02Carol Massar:Absolutely. Guys, thank you so much. Really appreciate it. Ira Jersey, Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, Frank Moncom. He is Bloomberg News Macro Strategist. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.
14:18Bloomberg Businessweek Daily is brought to you by HPE, bringing you the self-driving network, a network that's self-optimizing, self-healing, and self-protecting, and only continues to get smarter. Learn more at hpe.com slash networking. So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now, a global workforce of 300 ,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94 % of common questions. Not noise. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business.
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15:33You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. Saudi Arabia's critical east-west oil pipeline that acts as a workaround for shipments unable to transit the Strait of Hormuz was shut as a precautionary measure following multiple attacks on Thursday. This according to the Ministry of Energy. Oil prices have surged this week. You've been paying attention. That's not going to be news to you. Brent crude trading above$100 a barrel again.
16:09Carol Massar:Didn't we go as high as like 107 or so? No, higher. Higher, yeah. As fighting has intensified across the Middle East with Houthi assaults on Saudi energy facilities and the U.S. strikes targeting Iranian oil tankers. Well, speaking of the Houthis, we wanted to take a step back, get a picture of what's happening in the region, specifically when it comes to the Houthis, how they're upping the stakes in the Iran war. And we've got a great voice to help us on exactly that, like an understanding of what is going on. Vina Ali Khan is a reporter for Bloomberg News. She previously worked as a Middle East analyst at the International Crisis Group, a DC-based policy organization.
16:41She joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio. Welcome, welcome. Happy to be here. Hey, we just wanted to start with big picture stuff and sort of start at the beginning of this is this has extended and gotten to i guess the stakes have been raised a little bit yeah explain who the houthis are who backs them everything we need to know for sure so despite popular belief um the houthis predated any kind of iranian support they're part of a clan that originally come from the northern highlands of yemen and they're very tribal um no one had really heard of them, even regionally, until the 1990s when Yemen's south and north were unified and they became a far more prevalent and big voice within Yemen.
17:292014, they captured the capital, Sana 'a, and that led to the Saudi-led coalition to intervene in Yemen, led to a huge bloody war inside of the country for years. Ultimately, Saudi Arabia didn't fulfill their aims in, you know, upseating Yemen from the capital. And they, at the moment, control 25 percent of the population. What do they want? So they actually make their demands pretty consistent for the entirety of the war. And, you know, I mean, most days they say what they want. And that is firstly for Saudi to withdraw from Yemen. And what they mean by this is for them to stop funding their allies, Saudi allies in the country.
18:13They also want the lifting of all movement restrictions in Yemen. So since 2015, Saudi has limited movement going in and out of Houthi-controlled areas. That includes a partial closure of the Houthi-held Hodeidah port and also a closure of Sana 'a airport. The Houthis want that access unlimited, but Saudi's argument was that Iranian weapons were reaching the group which led to more fighting in the country. So what does this all mean in the context of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran and the possibility of that conflict coming to an end, the Strait of Hormuz opening up? And I mean, we're not even at the part about a nuclear discussion, but we can perhaps get to that if we have time.
18:58Yeah, for sure. So the Houthis have long wanted to capture Mocha, which sits right near Bab al-Mandab, which is, I would say, one of the world's most important choke point. It's essential for commercial goods and energy supplies going via Asia to Europe through the Suez Canal and vice versa, with Iran now closing the Strait of Hormuz, essentially. and the Houthis now basically having total control of Bab al-Mandab from the Yemeni side, this has made all the world's most important choke points.
19:34Carol Massar:We have a map up, and I apologize for everybody on TV, but you see you've got Saudi Arabia to the right is the Strait of Hormuz, and of course Iran. Then you go down to the tip at the Gulf of Aden. Yeah, the Gulf of Aden. And the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is, I would say, in the northwest side of Yemen. And that's where a small, I would say a small area on the shore, which I've actually been to before, and it's pretty dusty. That's where the Houthis captured in the past few days. And also they captured an island called Meyoun Island. And that sits right in the middle of Bab al-Mandeb, right? So to be honest, the Houthis could already reach Saudi ships before the latest escalation.
20:20But this has really politically consolidated their control in the region.
20:25Carol Massar:Is this an escalation? This is an escalation. Yemen hasn't seen this much fighting since the height of the Yemeni war, which was 2018, 2021. We've seen an uneasy truce, fragile truce between the Saudis and the Houthis since 2022. But what we're seeing today is both, you know, the Houthis controlling the Bab al-Madam Strait, which fits Iran's wider regional strategy in light of the latest escalation with the U.S., but also the Houthis have their own very local demands from the Saudis, which I mentioned earlier. And this seems like the best time for them to gain as much land as they can while everyone is distracted with Iran in hope of gaining more concessions from the Saudis while also fitting into Iran's wider regional strategy.
21:11Where's Israel in all of this? I mean, we have to wait and see, right? So I think at the moment, everyone's waiting to see how Saudi Arabia will respond. the Yemeni government was hoping for Saudi to provide some kind of air support but you know there's also questions on how much would air support help right now in order to capture those regions I think Saudi for its part you know they've been looking at the Houthi threats in recent days and the main Houthi threats have been if you dare to intervene in this conflict we're going to strike your energy facilities and you know we've already seen at the start the weak Aramco facilities that were hit.
21:49Now the east to west pipeline was again a hit. So, you know, the salaries are really in a rock and a hard place. And the east west pipeline is supposed to be, I don't want to say a full alternative because it can't be to the Strait of Hormuz, but there's been so much discussion of the east west pipeline in the context of, okay, well, if we can't get oil through the strait, then we'll rely on this east west pipeline. And if that's being targeted, that's another area of concern. Absolutely. And the Houthis are not shy by making those threats as well.
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22:16Carol Massar:How close are the Houthis and Iran? I mean, you know, this is the million dollar question. You know, before the US-Iran war, we saw the Houthis and Iran, their relationship. It was close. You know, they would talk about it, but it was still very known. What was the extent to it? I think since 2023 and the start of the Gaza war, you really saw the Houthis prove themselves as a vital clog within Iran's axis of resistance. You know, while Hezbollah was mainly depleted in Lebanon, the Houthis were able to carry out maritime strikes in the Red Sea, in the Gulf of Aden, and also in their eyes withstand US and Israeli attacks.
22:55So I think Iran has now seen the Houthis in a different light. They've really proven themselves. And the Houthis themselves have become more proud and confident on what they can achieve. But I have to say, you know, the Houthis would not be where they are today without Iranian support, military expertise, training. But now we've reached a stage where the Houthis make their weapons by themselves.
23:18Carol Massar:But is it safe to say they don't take moves without Iran knowing? Just got about 10 seconds. Yeah. So big military moves. It's difficult to say exactly, but I would say they wouldn't make those massive military decisions without the go-ahead from Iran. Amazing insight. Veena, thank you so much. Thank you for having me. Veena Ali Khan. She is a reporter for Bloomberg News, previously working as a Middle East analyst at the International Crisis Group over in Washington, D.C. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
23:54Or watch us live on YouTube. Everyone of a certain age has their own 9-11 story.
24:01Carol Massar:They certainly do, including Mike Codella. He is particularly harrowing. He's an NYPD detective sergeant. He was assigned to Building 7, which was also known as the Solomon Brothers Building and was actually buried alive when a building fell on him. He's the author of the forthcoming book, The Evil That Walked New York. He joins us from New York. Mike, welcome. It's good to have you on the program today. No question, a somber day. And we're grateful for you joining us. Can you take us back to that sunny Tuesday morning in lower Manhattan? Sure. So, like everyone else, when the first plane hit, I just assumed that it was a pilot off course and crashed into the World Trade Center.
24:46I was actually home at the time, getting ready to go to work. My office was in the 7th World Trade Center. I was assigned to the Secret Service Task Force. So I just got dressed like any other day, paid attention to the news, got in my car, and headed off to Lower Manhattan. When I got into the Brooklyn Battery Tunnel, the tunnel was bumper-to-bumper traffic. No cars were moving. And shortly thereafter, I heard that the second plane hit. When the second plane hit, we all, most of us anyway, assumed that we were under attack, that we were under some kind of terrorist attack on our homeland. I tried to, I put my lights and sirens on trying to get out of our tunnel.
25:27but there was so much traffic and such congestion in that little two-lane tunnel, I couldn't get out. Finally, an FDNY truck passed by, blaring their sirens, and that's a huge truck. Their sirens are really loud, so vehicles were getting out of the way. I was able to negotiate my car behind their truck, and I got out of the Brooklyn Battery Tunnel, once in downtown Manhattan. Again, traffic was at a standstill, so I just pulled my car over, parked at a fire hydrant and ran towards the building. I was in civilian clothes. So when I got to the building, well, prior to getting to the building, I stopped off at a corner bodega, and I asked the guy if I could use his phone.
26:12I wanted to call my wife and let her know I was okay. My cell phone wasn't working. Very few cell phones were working because the cell towers were on the World Trade Center. So I had no cell service. I asked this guy in the store if I could use his hardline phone. And, of course, he let me. I called my wife. I told her that I was fine. I was just going into the building to help evacuate some of the people at the World Trade Center. So I hung up. I ran over to the World Trade Center, and I deemed myself. And I got into the building. I went into the South Tower. As I ran in, I saw the FDNY chiefs in the lobby with a huge wall traits on the floor plan laid out on the lobby floor.
26:56I went up into one of the staircases to try to help people out. But there were so many people rushing out of that staircase that I was actually going to hinder them if I continued. So I found another staircase. I went up that staircase again looking to help people evacuate. because of the fire. The threat of fire and the burning was what I was actually looking to help people get out of. But as I started to go up the stairs, I heard a loud explosion, and then the earth vibrated, and I actually thought that we were hit with another plane. I had no clue or no indication, or I couldn't fathom that the building was coming down.
27:42But as the building continued to shake, I came down from the stairs and I saw the chiefs, all the FDNY chiefs running out of the building and I followed suit. And it was around that time when the building collapsed and threw me some 15, 20 feet out of the building.
28:05Carol Massar:I don't even know where to begin or where to pick up on that. But were you able to walk? Were you able to, were you covered? Were you, did you have to wait for someone to help you out? So I was covered, but I wasn't under like feet of debris. I had probably a couple of inches on me and I was laying on my back. I wasn't actually, to be honest, I wasn't actually even sure if I was injured or not at that point. what happened was the scene became completely dark, completely black. Like you couldn't see your hand in front of your face. That's how dark it got. And completely silent. The debris caused the air to get so thick that sound waves couldn't penetrate the air.
28:54So you couldn't hear people screaming. You couldn't hear sirens. So I'm on my back for some time. And then a detective who I actually knew happened to, he was from the Arson Explosion Squad in New York, NYPD. He keeps in his vehicle for emergencies some kind of a big heavy-duty light. And he flashed it in the sky and he said, if anyone could see the light, try to get to the light. And when I saw the light, I was able to get to my feet. and once I got to my feet, he came over and scooped me up and he took me in another building where, to this day, I don't know exactly where he took me. Wow. You know, we were talking a little bit earlier about the seventh moment of silence during the commemoration ceremony today to honor the thousands of first responders and survivors and community members who have died as a result of 9-11-related illnesses.
29:53and I'm curious if you've experienced anything since then. We're so fortunate that you're with us right now, essentially having survived those attacks, but we all know that the wounds from there did not end on that day. You know, for a long time after, I'm not sure if it was quite a year, but at least for many months, I had a cough that I couldn't get rid of. And when I had gone to the doctor, excuse me, When I had gone to the doctor, they attributed it to the fallen debris that I had ingested. And again, that cough lasted quite a long time, but it eventually subsided and completely left.
30:33Carol Massar:Mike, talk to us about the days following. I think there was so much hope right after that there would be more individuals found. And I just remember outside the hospitals on fences, right, pictures of missing people. Like, we all passed that for a long, long time, and it stayed around. Most of those people were not, never made it home that night. Let's put it that way. Tell us about the weeks following as the city was healing, trying to find its way forward. The nation was healing, or trying to find its way forward. Yeah. You know, I talk about the heroes that are really the unsung heroes from the United States, from this country.
31:22You know, after the buildings fell, of course, our first course of action was to look for survivors. And people came from all over the country, people that I met and I spoke to. They came from all over the country to help. They left their jobs. They left their families. They stayed at these flea bag hotels with people they didn't even know, literally just to help. And they got no benefit from it. Obviously, they weren't getting paid. And they stayed at the World Trade Center site, searching for bodies, helping, doing whatever they could. Whatever you would ask these people to do, they did. And they were from all over the country, the Northeast, the South, Midwest.
32:08They were people from everywhere. And literally, they gave up their lives just to come and help. And some of them spent months at the World Trade Center.
32:15Carol Massar:I have to say, one of the things that I remember so well in the weeks after, and certainly immediately after, is just whether it was fire trucks or health officials, coming from all over the area, like the different license plates of people coming to help in certainly going through the devastation. and the building and the rubble. My own brother, a contractor, was one of those folks who spent a few days downtown helping out. And it's just everybody heard the call and came forward. And it was pretty remarkable and just a really, really tough time. You know, how do we, how do you look back at that moment?
33:02Carol Massar:25 years to me is a significant part of time. And I was just thinking about it in my own world, you know, where I was, who was in my life, who wasn't. It's just, it's a long period of time. How do you look back at it? You know, it actually feels like a lifetime ago, even though everything is fairly visible in my head. But it does seem like, again, like a lifetime ago. You know, when the saying, never forget, when we were saying that years ago, So I never thought that we would forget. I never thought the United States, the people here, I never thought they'd forget. In fact, I thought they'd probably teach it in school, have a mandatory course, so to speak, and teach everyone who the criminals were, who the perpetrators were, who the terrorists were, and who the victims were.
33:55But apparently it seems that somewhere along the line in the last 25 years, a lot of people have forgotten. what's the right way to remember it in your view
34:10well i believe we should remember that we were actually attacked on our homeland and so many innocent people died you know um this wasn't these people that attacked us weren't soldiers they were terrorists and they attacked innocent lives um i think that has to be pointed out it has to be stressed. And again, the way we came together right after 9-11, unfortunately, that dissipated and it's not like that anymore. But if we could get that spirit back, then that would be an amazing feat.
34:45Carol Massar:Well, Mike, we certainly appreciate you telling your story, the reality, and taking us back to 9-11. And glad to see that you're doing okay. Mike Cordella, thank you so much. He is NYPD Sergeant joining us here on Bloomberg Business Week. And again, marking 25 years since those attacks in downtown New York and on the Pentagon and in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this. So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need.
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37:22You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Or watch us live on YouTube. 10 % of adults today were born after 2001. one. So they only know about the attacks through what they've learned from others. That's where Joseph Daniels comes in. He witnessed 9-11 firsthand. He's really helped to make sure that those who don't remember it, learn about it. He's the former president and CEO of the national September 11th Memorial and museum. And in the interest of transparency, we should note that Mike Bloomberg, the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg TV and radio is chairman of the 9-11 Memorial and museum.
38:05Joe, good to have you. it's so great to be here i appreciate it yeah i mean the 25 years it's just it's hard to believe i think for so many of us who are of a certain age it it really does feel like it wasn't that long ago yeah some ways it feels like just yesterday and the one of the things that when you when you think about it in your daily life all of those people the 2977 people that were killed that day all they did was what we do every day they simply got up in the morning and they went to work and never came home. And in that devastation that we saw, lower Manhattan just, you know, with the acrid smell, the smoke rising from the pile, who knew that 25 years later, one of the most positive things that have come of it is lower Manhattan is back in the most amazing intentional way.
38:57So as we remember the victims, it's really life-affirming to see people come visit the memorial, go to the restaurants around, go to the museum. The office towers are back. And that was a big part of this project.
39:11Carol Massar:The way the individuals who lost their lives, like how it's been, how they've been remembered and honored, it's pretty remarkable. I was walking through the World Trade this morning, and there's points where on the floor it says, here's where the old towers were. Like, very thoughtful, very simply, but just as a reminder. When you look at where it is today and what was so important in terms of what you guys put together to make sure you laid out the right remembrance? I mean, it was an incredibly complex project from the sort of the making it happen side because you had these emotions for these family members that were so real and so raw.
39:56And even today, this data point, 1 ,100 family members never got back a stitch of human remains to lay to rest. So especially with the museum making choices around content, how the story was going to be told, we had to be cognizant that for all of those families, bedrock of the World Trade Center is the last final resting place. So ultimately, though, when we opened the memorial on the 10th anniversary and it was the first time that family members by the thousands came on to the memorial, found their loved one's name etched in bronze forever. It just felt like this almost ethereal or magical just release.
40:35And there was a real coming together. And to see that 15 years later on the 25th anniversary today, this morning, it was amazing to see people come together again. As we get further and further away from that day and more and more people don't remember it or weren't alive when 9-11 happened, what is the right way to teach it, to remember it, and to make sure we learn from that? Well, ultimately, the best thing that a parent can do, if they have the means, and obviously New York is open for business always, but coming to the museum. We built that museum, and we knew we were going to reach this stage at some point where an increasing amount of Americans or visitors from overseas didn't have the lived memory.
41:22That's why we told the story in as much a first-person way as possible. You're hearing the voicemails. You're seeing the documentary evidence through massive artifacts, crushed fire trucks down to the personal mementos. And when you're looking at a memento or a fire truck, you're learning about the guys that were on that fire truck that did everything possible, rushed into the buildings. They got 20 ,000 people out. So the best thing they can do, first of all, schools have their responsibility. But the best thing to do is to come to Lower Manhattan, visit the memorial, go to the museum. Because everyone that's done that, and I think the number I've heard is up to something like 60 million people have come.
42:06They always leave, not only with an emotional feeling, but this idea that in the aftermath, people came together to support one another.
42:14Carol Massar:9-11 was for me, I think about, we cover news all the time and we're, you know, some far off nation and there's a mudslide or there's an earthquake and it's a headline. and then you, you know, there's always people impacted. And 9-11 for me, there were so many individuals that were guests I had talked to for years, you know, professional colleagues. And, you know, it has changed how I look at the world because it's so easy to look at something from this high level, but you remember people, lives, like so much was impacted. Yeah, it's interesting and important. So obviously 9-11 had an international impact.
42:57People from 92 nations were killed. Obviously the Pentagon, Flight 93. But for New Yorkers, the attack was so personal. Because the World Trade Center, what it represented. It was a rock. Exactly. And I was reflecting with someone today at the memorial that, remember that unsettling feeling after the attacks where you'd look down lower Manhattan and the emptiness of the towers no longer being there was really unsettling. And the redevelopment, American Express, who just announced that they're building the final tower and they're moving in, it's a huge success story. And honestly, again, I was 32 when Mike Bloomberg hired me as his permanent president, and I'm working for Mike Bloomberg.
43:44And that was such a big part of it, about bringing life back, restoring the economic impact at the same time having a space for remembrance.
43:52Carol Massar:Yeah, well, we talked about New Yorkers. You think about Bob De Niro, Robert De Niro, and his team and bringing back with the Tribeca Film Festival and what that did for downtown New York as well. And they're just things where New Yorkers came together and wanted to make sure that New York came back even stronger than ever. Yeah, and that side of it with Bob De Niro and Gene Rosenthal, The Tribeca Film Festival was such a big first step in bringing culture, life, music back to lower Manhattan, back to New York City. It's a great part of it. We had to learn how to live again and laugh again and enjoy ourselves again.
44:32Carol Massar:That's right. It was a process here in New York. I think, too, it's fair to say that even though that was a singular day 25 years ago, the entire world shifted. And the way we think about not just security and terrorism, but the global balance of power and so-called forever wars, Iraq and Afghanistan, and maybe even now Iran, we can draw some sort of line from that day to now. I'm just curious how you think about that. Well, it's absolutely true. And even in looking back at what led to 9-11, starting with the rise of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan in the 1980s, those roots are planted then. And the geopolitical picture then, who we are supporting at various times, the Russians, and then, of course, the towers were first attacked in February 26, 1993.
45:29Right. And the six names of those victims are also on the 9-11 memorial. And then, of course, you have the USS Cole and the 9-11 itself. And then those the wars. I mean, it's a complicated and very, you know, it's not a simple narrative to be able to outline. Is there I know you left the museum some years ago, but I'm curious about how when you were building it and building the memorial, you thought about it as a living memorial and adding to it as the story continued to unfold. So with the museum and absolutely like telling the story, not just of the day, but how the recovery period, the aftermath, they have a, we told the story when Bin Laden and Operation Neptune finally came together and Bin Laden was killed.
46:18It needs to have a living quality to it. and it does although that the core of it is the story of the day and the aftermath and we have a section in the museum on the south footprint which is in memoriam and it's a picture of every one of the victims and when you walk into that room and you see their pictures they're all different some are very formal like corporate headshots others are sitting in a backyard at a barbecue and it really, and you see every color, every race, every religion, it's a snapshot of the world and the diversity of New York City. It's a, yeah, life continues with that.
46:58Carol Massar:We just have about a minute left, Joe. Just take us to this morning and today. You walked in and you shared with us before we got going, but just got about a minute here. Tell us just about today. The number of families that came this year, it was overwhelming and just really beautiful to see. In some ways, each anniversary, certainly for me and many others who come, it's like a reunion. I met this group that people should remember was called Tuesday's Children. And it was an organization founded right after 9-11 for the kids who lost parents. 25 years later, these kids are no longer kids. They're having careers.
47:36And to see four of our living presidents come today, that also made it felt really great. because it was a reminder that this date in our recently marked 250-year history is a big, big chapter. And it was great to see the four living presidents and all the other dignitaries. But ultimately, it was about the families and hearing the names of those that we lost. Thank you.
48:02Carol Massar:We really appreciate you coming. It's a very heavy and emotionally charged day for so many, certainly here at Bloomberg, but throughout the nation. but in particular in the New York, I feel like area. Joe, thank you. Joe Daniels. He's former president and CEO of the National September 11th Memorial and Museum. It is in downtown New York. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
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From the publisher
The people, companies and trends shaping the global economy. Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh faces intense pressure to raise interest rates at next week’s policy meeting after a highly anticipated inflation report showed US consumer prices marched higher last month. It comes as US diesel prices rose above $6 a gallon for the first time ever, as the conflict in the Middle East expands with Houthi rebels attacking a key Saudi energy facility.
On today's episode:
- Frank Monkam, Bloomberg Macro Strategist & Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence US Interest Rate Strategist
- Veena Ali-Khan, Bloomberg News Reporter
- Mike Codella, NYPD Sergeant and author of the book, ‘The Evil that Walked New York’
- Joe Daniels, Former President & CEO of the National September 11 Memorial & Museum
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
