World Leaders Seek Peace in Gaza During UN General Assembly

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2:01Bloomberg Daybreak for a precise, thoughtful take on the stories that matter. Listen to Bloomberg Daybreak each morning on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. You're listening to Bloomberg Businessweek with Carol Masser and Tim Stenevek on Bloomberg Radio. France recognized Palestine as an independent state and along with Saudi Arabia at a UN conference led by the two countries called on Israel to end the war in Gaza immediately. Now, several countries, including the UK, Canada, Australia and Portugal, formally recognized Palestine. Tim, joining almost 150 nations that had already made the move.

2:45And not among them, the United States. President Trump addressing the reasons why when he spoke this morning to the U.N. General Assembly here in New York. Some of this body is seeking to unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state. the rewards would be too great for Hamas terrorists for their atrocities. This would be a reward for these horrible atrocities, including October 7th, even while they refuse to release the hostages or accept to cease fire. Those who want peace should be united with one message, release the hostages now. Just release the hostages now. President Trump at the U.N. General Assembly earlier today, the Israeli ambassador to the U.N.

3:33pictured in that video as well. Hey, joining us with what may be next in the war between Israel and Hamas, Mona Yacoubian. She's director and senior advisor, Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She joins us from D.C. She has more than 30 years of experience working on the Middle East and North Africa, and she has spent time at USAID, also the State Department, a lot more. So she's got a great perspective on this. Monica, great to have you. Mona, rather, great to have you here with us. In terms of the meetings this week, what you're hearing so far, do you think anything will come out in terms of progress toward ending the war between Israel and Hamas?

4:14You know, unfortunately, I don't see any near-term prospect for a ceasefire. We're sort of watching this weird paradox where there's growing momentum for the declaration of a Palestinian state, and yet nothing could be further from reality on the ground, certainly in Gaza and beyond. So then is the recognition symbolic? And if it is symbolic, does it do more than just make Israel feel isolated? Well, it's certainly symbolic. It's hard, as I said, it doesn't translate to anything concrete on the ground. It certainly has had, I think, the effect of isolating Israel. And in a way, though, I think, therefore, having Israel also entrench its position further.

5:03Prime Minister Netanyahu has been very clear that he is in no way, shape, or form interested in seeing a Palestinian state come to fruition. And so that's why without the buy-in of Israel or the United States, it's very hard to see how these declarations really go any further than simply the statements that are being made. What about financial pressure and economic pressure on Israel in particular? I mean, the EU, Israel's biggest trading partner, is discussing suspending Israel's preferential commerce benefits, although some key German politicians have expressed their disapproval. We've also talked about, you know, the money that Israel is spending on this war and the impact it's having on its economy.

5:49How much of a financial and economic cost, how much more can Israel endure? Let's start there. Or is that putting pressure for them to also bring an end to this? Putting aside the impact on human life. Which is significant. But I think, as you rightly point out, first, we're still a ways from, I think, concerted EU action against Israel because of, you know, the kind of the opposition of countries like Germany. My own view is, barring significant leverage from the United States as the primary ally and supporter of Israel, it's really hard to see how any of these measures are going to have a real impact on Israeli decision making.

6:34What kind of leverage? Is that in the form of funds? Is it in the form of weapons? What's the leverage? Well, I mean, I think arms sales are often raised as a key leverage measure that the U.S. could take restricting arms sales, maybe defense only selling defensive weapons or perhaps a full embargo on arms sales. These are certainly measures that have been discussed by Democrats in Congress. But again, we haven't seen those take on any momentum. And in fact, if anything, the Trump administration is actually proposing increased arms sales to Israel. What would you say to folks out there? And we heard from the president who said those who want peace should be united with one message.

7:14Release the hostages now. Just release the hostages. Those those critics out there who say the ball right now is in Hamas's court. They can end this by releasing the hostages. Well, there's reporting that Hamas is proposing a limited 60-day ceasefire in exchange for a partial release of the hostages and then perhaps additional releases as the ceasefire goes on. And at the end of the day, you know, yes, of course, Hamas on the ground is a critical element in this, but Israel is as well. And there really needs to be perhaps movement on the part of Israel as well towards some kind of a ceasefire negotiation, positive movement in the direction of a ceasefire.

7:54Yeah, I think, you know, on the flip side to what Tim said, I mean, why why wouldn't Israel say, yeah, ceasefire? Let's bring let's bring those folks home. Well, let's be clear. We're saying Israel as though it's a unitary actor, which, of course, is not the case. So there have been massive demonstrations in Israel across the political spectrum and certainly by hostage families really demanding that the Israeli government do more to reach a ceasefire. And it's really, you know, Prime Minister Netanyahu and those directly around him who have really put the brakes on any effort to actually move those negotiations along.

8:35On that, we're going to be joined a little later in our program just at the four o 'clock hour by Ethan Bronner. Typically, he joins us from Tel Aviv, but he's bringing the Tel Aviv view to New York. He's going to be in our studio a little later. So we'll get an update from him on what's happening on the ground in Tel Aviv right now, too. Yeah, looking forward to that. One thing I wanted to ask you, Mona, I mean, I don't want to sound naive, but why has this really gone on for so long? You know, before this war, we were talking about Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, maybe losing his job.

9:08You know, there was so much pushback against him. I'm just trying to understand what's really at the heart of this. You have studied the region for a long time. You understand conflict. And I just wonder, you know, why it's going on for so long. And really, what what do we get on the other side of this beyond a lot of loss? Enormous loss and devastation. I mean, unfortunately, conflicts take on dynamics of their own. And I think we've seen that in Gaza, where, you know, there's efforts that have been made to move toward a ceasefire. Of course, let's not forget, just a couple weeks ago, Qatar was in the midst of mediating between Israel and Hamas when Israel unleashed strikes on Doha.

9:55That immediately suspended that mediation. And so it's very hard to actually bring adversaries to the table and move toward compromise when one side or the other believes that it can continue to make gains on the ground. And I think certainly in the case of both Hamas and Israel, we're not seeing either side ready to sort of give up, surrender, come to the table and reach some sort of conclusion to this conflict. As Carol mentioned in the introduction, you've spent decades working on the Middle East and North Africa. You focused on conflict analysis, governance and stabilization, conflict prevention, USAID, U.S.

10:42State Department and much more. If you were advising U.S. leaders right now and Israeli leaders right now to end this conflict, how would you advise them? I would say that the most significant military gains have already been made. And this isn't me. This is the opinion of senior leadership in the Israeli military. that net-net the costs of continuing this conflict are greater than any benefit. This is the moment to move toward a conclusion. It will be now two years this October. Since October 7, there are still some 20 Israeli hostages alive still in Gaza. It's time to bring this conflict to an end so that they can come home and the region can move toward stabilization.

11:34You know, we talked about the cost to Israel, financial, economic, and other. The war has decimated also the Palestinian economy. The World Bank saying it was experiencing, quote, its deepest contraction over a generation. More than 65 ,000 Palestinians have died since the start of the conflict. And that's, again, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. I mean, there's costs on all sides. Yeah, and Carol raised a good question when we were talking about this ahead of time, which is essentially, OK, what's left or of a, you know, quote unquote, Palestinian state at the end of this conflict?

12:08What happens in Gaza? Well, the devastation cannot be overstated. 90 percent of infrastructure has been destroyed. We are seeing, you know, the Israelis are currently undertaking an incursion into Gaza City. There are continuing displacements of Palestinian civilians. massive hunger and even famine in parts of Gaza. So first, I think the first step is for the fighting to come to a conclusion. And then unfortunately, it's going to be a long time and is going to take enormous resources for Gaza to rebuild. And of course, none of that will happen in the absence of some sort of political settlement.

12:55Well, and I just want to go back to, you know, we talked about Israel being increasingly isolated when it comes to other world leaders. The U.S., too, kind of isolated in its stance on this. Is the U.S. still a key voice in this war and helping to bring an end to it? I think the U.S. is indispensable to bringing an end to this war. It is really only the United States that exercises the kind of leverage and influence over Israel. And of course, has the deep ties with Arab governments that support the Palestinians. The U.S. is really in a unique position. And I really hope that the Trump administration seizes on this unique position that it has to do, as President Trump promised in his inauguration speech.

13:45He wants to be a peacemaker. This is a conflict that's really crying out for resolution. All right. Well, good to get your view on all of this. There's so much going on and continuing to come at us, certainly this week. Mona Yakubian, thank you. Director and Senior Advisor, Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

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