ACA Subsidies Set to Expire; Russia and Ukraine Trade Strikes on Black Sea Ports

0:01Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcast Radio News. good morning i'm john tucker and i'm karen moscow here are the stories we're following today and karen we're going to have more on the market since we close out 2025 in just a minute but first the covid era subsidies that help americans pay for obamacare health plans expire today it's going to result in more than 20 million americans paying higher premiums next month the democrats have tried to extend the additional support beyond the december deadline but republicans a balk, citing the cost of some$350 billion over the next decade. Let's get more from Bloomberg opinion columnist, Guta Mukunda.

0:45If premiums skyrocket the way that it looks, they are doing and it looks like they're going to, that is a political disaster for the Republican Party, which owns the issue in that way. They're asking Democrats, but to fix it, almost all the votes will be Democrats. The policy incentives, which are to fix the problem, and the political incentives, which are for Democrats to say, hey, guys, congratulations, like you own this. Those run in completely opposite directions. And the closer we get to the midterms, the more the political incentives are going to swamp the policy ones. And Bloomberg opinions go to Makunda.

1:16Meantime, a handful of House Republicans, they have joined Democrats in a maneuver. We'll put a three year extension of these subsidies to a vote next month. Let's head overseas now, John, where Russia and Ukraine struck each other's black seaports overnight, damaging infrastructure, including an oil refinery. Delita Salvo comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin said he would revise his country's negotiating position to end the war, claiming Ukrainian drones targeted his residents. Former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Stephen Piper says the Russian president is attempting to stall peace plans.

1:51Putin is clearly trying to derail the progress that appears to be made in conversations between Americans, Ukrainians and Europeans. and it's unfortunate that President Trump took Putin's word at face value. Former U.S. Ambassador Steven Peiffer, Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. And let's turn to the latest developments in the Mideast. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu says Iran should heed President Trump's warning about not restarting its nuclear program. Netanyahu spoke yesterday with Fox News. As far as the nuclear program, I think they're trying to do it. I'm not sure they've decided to cross the line because I think they heed President Trump's warnings and also because they've just experienced something less than a year ago.

2:41They saw what it entails. And they have to choose. Look, we don't seek escalation. I hope they don't. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also says he is aligned with President Trump on wanting to give the new Syrian government a chance. In Asia, John, President Xi Jinping said China is set to meet its economic targets for 2025, with growth expected to reach about 5%. Addressing the country's top political advisory body on New Year's Eve, Xi said the economy has demonstrated resilience despite challenges. Yeah, let's turn to the markets, where 2025 has been another profitable one for the bulls.

3:19Stocks ending a third year at double-digit gains. In fact, global stocks poised for their biggest annual gain in six years. Alonzo Munoz is the chief investment officer at Hamilton Capital Partners. I think we have to be sanguine about the fact that there may be some volatility next year. We have some big catalysts that we're looking forward to, like Fed policy, Fed rate cuts maybe. We're looking at the Supreme Court and what they do with tariffs. I think that's a big deal. And so I think we're going to be, you know, really open to next year. We're keeping a little bit of cash on hand, but we're going to stay on the AI trade.

3:49I think that's what we're going to do going into next year. Hamilton Partners Alonzo Munoz. So far this year, the MSCI All Country World Index, that's one of the broadest measures of the equity market, that's gained 21 percent. Well, it's also been a good run in 2025 for precious metals, John, although they are ending the year on a whimper. Silver is down about five and a half percent today, and we get more on the reasons behind the move with Bloomberg Markets reporter Valerie Teitel. So interesting. We had another margin requirement hike from the CME, which I think is taking again those leverage speculators out of the market.

4:25And that's why we're seeing silver plummet again today. They do this on the back of very volatile trading days to make sure that everyone trading does have enough margin, enough to post against their wins and their losses. So not unusual to see this from the CME that they do this twice in a row in the back of all of this volatility. in the silver market, but it is definitely taking some speculators out of the space. And Bloomberg Markets reporter Valerie Teitel says despite today's losses, silver is up more than 145 percent this year. Gold, which is also lower today, is up more than 50 percent in 2025.

5:03And oil is heading for its steepest annual loss since the start of the pandemic in 2020. Crude has slumped this year as supplies swelled from OPEC Plus and its rivals, but demand growth slowed oil, which is down 18 % this year. Right now, let's do WTI, American Crew,$57.99 a barrel. That's up just three cents a barrel this morning. Well, John, we have new developments this morning and the takeover battle for Warner Brothers Discovery. Bloomberg News has learned the media company is planning to reject a takeover bid from Paramount after the company amended the terms of its offer. Paramount went public with its$30 a share cash bid earlier this month, three days after Warner had accepted a deal with Netflix.

5:46Bloomberg's Lucas Shaw says the deal will come down to the numbers. Money is the biggest thing. The Paramount offer and the Netflix offer are fairly comparable. A lot of it depends on how much value you assign to the cable networks that Warner Brothers owns. That's CNN, TNT, among many others. Warner Brothers thinks they're worth more than Paramount, hence the disagreement. Bloomberg's Lucas Shaw says Since its initial bid, Paramount has amended its offer twice, most recently by including an assurance from billionaire Larry Ellison that he would personally guarantee over$40 billion in equity financing and other commitments.

6:22And let's turn to the economy. This is where the latest Fed Minutes show officials saw additional rate cuts appropriate so long as inflation declines over time. The minutes of the December meeting pointed to the difficulty that policymakers faced in their most recent decision, which modestly reinforces expectations the Fed will hold rates unchanged when they meet again in January. Well, John, those Fed officials and investors will get one final piece of key data as we close out the year. This morning, we get weekly jobless claims, and Bloomberg's Tom Busby has a preview. The holidays are always a volatile time for unemployment claims, and after the number of Americans filing first-time applications for jobless benefits unexpectedly declined for the previous two weeks in a row, that is expected to change.

7:06Bloomberg consensus calls for 219 ,000 initial claims last week, up by 5 ,000 from the week prior. Still, though, in an historically low range. Tom Busby, Bloomberg Radio.

7:20Time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. Well, then for that, we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, good morning. Good morning, Karen. New York City officials are getting ready to welcome people to Times Square to watch the ball drop during the new year. Officials want to make sure the event is safe and celebratory. Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch explains an additional layer of security. And once inside a viewing area, there will be no re-entry and they may be subject to re-screening. Over a million people are expected to watch the new sparkly ball drop to Welcome 2026.

7:59Immigration officials do not plan to detain Kilmar Abrego Garcia again, as long as a judge's order banning it stands. That's according to a court filing from the U.S. government. The Salvadoran migrant is fighting to remain in the U.S. after a mistaken deportation to his home country, where he was imprisoned. Yesterday, a newly unsealed order in the criminal case against Abrego Garcia revealed that high-level Justice Department officials pushed for his indictment, including acting U.S. attorney for Middle Tennessee Robert McGuire. Tatiana Schlossberg, one of three grandchildren of the late President John F.

8:38Kennedy, has died after a battle with leukemia. It was just last month that Schlossberg revealed in a New Yorker essay that she had terminal cancer. Schlossberg, the daughter of Caroline Kennedy, was 35. A surge of arctic air brought strong winds, heavy snow, and frigid temperatures to the Great Lakes and Northeast, a day after a bomb cyclone that hit the northern U.S. And we're learning how strong the wind was in western New York. Those wind gusts blowing at over 70 miles per hour actually lifted 71-year-old Diane Miller off her feet. Miller, who lives off the shore of Lake Erie, had grasped the door handle of her daughter's Lackawanna home on her way in, but was pulled off.

9:23The wind gust must have caught the screen door, and then I went into the bushes and onto the ground. Fortunately, she's okay. Global News 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg. Thanks, Michael. Time now for our Bloomberg Sports Update. And for that, we bring in Dan Schwarzman. Patriots star receiver Stefan Diggs is facing a felony charge of strangulation as well as a misdemeanor charge of assault for an incident that allegedly occurred back on December 2nd. Diggs will be arraigned on January 23rd, which is the Friday before the AFC Championship game.

9:58Meanwhile, Diggs' brother, Cowboys two-time Pro Bowl cornerback Trayvon Diggs, was released by Dallas for what's being called a culmination of issues. The quarterfinals of the college football playoffs getting underway as the two-seed Ohio State battles the 10-seed Miami in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic in Arlington, Texas. Light schedule in the NBA, the Celtics knocking off the Jazz 129-119. The 76ers getting past the Grizzlies in overtime 139-136. Pistons dominating the Lakers in LA 128-106. The Clippers beat up on the Kings 131-90. That's your Bloomberg Sports Update. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak coming up after this.

10:36As markets move and headlines break, what matters most is context. A Bloomberg subscription gives you unmatched reporting, sharp analysis, and powerful tools that help you connect the dots. Visit Bloomberg.com slash podcast offer to learn more. Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, and around the world on Bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. and it's now 5 13 on wall street good morning i'm john tucker the subsidies that help americans pay for obamacare health plans they expire today it's going to result in more than 20 million americans paying higher premiums starting next month just one of the stories we're following as 2025 comes to an end and for a look back what's ahead how the political landscape will inform the investment landscape let's bring in terry haynes founder at pangia policy happy new year to you.

11:36Terry, thanks so much for being with us and for being with us for the entire year, for your insight. From where you sit as a political observer, can you tell us what were the big takeaways for the year and maybe what's next? Good morning, John, and happy new year to you and everybody on Daybreak. Thank you for having me. You know, I think the takeaways are that overall, over everything, is that there's been very strong direction from Washington that helps markets understand exactly what the investment priorities are and where things are likely to go, whether they be on what I've been calling for some time the Trump interdependence foreign economic policy that helps trade deals and all the rest, the direction on tariffs, even the private sector response mobilizing for geopolitical competition for years to come.

12:41I'm thinking of the thing that Jamie Dimon's doing, kind of a brains trust idea. All those things are really a net positive from Washington for markets, although there are, of course, some negatives as well. The major market averages, they ramp up with double-digit gains. I mean, we're on track, certainly. But as one of our market guests this morning points out in a note, most market participants come from the upper earning end of the spectrum. How does that inform the politics and trends from voters we may see in the month and years ahead, particularly the next generation? Well, it depends on what kind of investors you're talking about.

13:23You know, you talk to a lot of members. A lot of members and senators approach markets issues from the perspective that more than half of Americans, well more than half of Americans, are invested in the markets, rely on markets for their retirement. They're kind of basic. They're not the blue-chip investors. They're kind of basic folks that are looking for the markets to generate returns and provide them with additional retirement security. So they come at it from a very much more mainstream perspective. And I'm not thinking about this as a Republican versus Democratic issue at all. They look at it as a mainstream perspective.

14:05And they want, for Main Street's benefit, to make sure that the markets remain healthy. Now, as we mentioned, the subsidies are ending today. A handful of House Republicans did join the Democrats. this is a maneuver that will put the three-year extension of the subsidies to a vote for next month. Is this one of the big issues for the midterms? I think it is a big issue for the midterms, but I also think people drink political Kool-Aid when they make this a situation where it's about subsidies versus no subsidies. I think what you're likely to see is a situation where, as you point out, subsidies expire starting tomorrow.

14:49But you will see a lot of effort in the winter and maybe even into the spring to battle between trying to keep the subsidies in place versus replacing the subsidies with some sort of alternative tax favored account, whether it be an HSA, whether it be a health freedom account, as the president has talked about. And the Congress has got at least two bites at that apple. One is by the end of January when the government funding runs out and bipartisan consensus is required to keep it going. So a solution could be there. Or in what's now being known as the big, beautiful bill 2.0, where that'll be an all-Republican tax solution that could include a different solution as well.

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16:22Search Bloomberg News Now on your favorite podcast platform to stay informed all day long. I'm Karen Moscow. I'm John Tucker. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak.