Daybreak Weekend: US Jobs, Ukraine Funding, Australia GDP

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0:57The Chase Mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank, NA. Member FDIC. Copyright 2026. JPMorgan Chase and Company. So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now, a global workforce of 300 ,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94 % of common questions. Not noise, proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business.

1:37Let's create smarter business, IBM. Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, we'll look to some key jobs data in the U.S. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. I'm Caroline Hepker here in London, where we're looking ahead to the EU sending fresh funds to Ukraine and what comes next in this ongoing war. I'm Doug Krizner looking at whether Australia's economy will show signs of cooling in Q1. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend.

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2:42Good day to you. I'm Nathan Hager. We begin today's program with some key economic data in the U.S. The Labor Department's all-important non-farm payrolls report for the month of May. is due out this Friday at 8.30 a.m. Wall Street time. For more on the numbers and their impact on Federal Reserve policy, we are joined by Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent Michael McKee. We've been looking at this labor market talking about low hire, low fire for so long, Mike. Is this print going to be low drama? Let's just say I hope you have a high tolerance for boredom, at least according to what the economists are predicting.

3:22another low high or low fire. The unemployment rate doesn't change. 4.3 % is the forecast. And that's basically what the Fed is looking at. They're less concerned with the number of jobs created. And that will basically change as the week goes on towards the jobs number, as we get additional information. But it doesn't look like we're going to have any kind of major change in the number of jobs. Remember, last month was 115 ,000. And at this point, because the labor force has shrunk, you need far fewer jobs to keep the unemployment rate stable. So they won't worry if we come in somewhere anywhere, say, between 50 ,000 and 115 ,000, or if it gets a little stronger than that, it helps them make the case for rate increases.

4:11Yeah. Well, what's been keeping the labor market at this kind of simmer that we've seen over the last few months? Is it just about uncertainty around the war? Is it artificial intelligence? What do you see underneath the hood? It's all of that. It's in part the fact that the labor force has shrunk, but companies just keep reporting over and over again to Fed officials that I talk to and what we've seen in earnings reports that they're kind of frozen at this point because they're waiting. A new round of tariffs are coming in July and there's still the war going on and we don't know how long that's going to last.

4:47All the analysts say if we have a ceasefire, it's still going to take a month to two months to get enough stuff flowing through the strait to where it needs to go to bring down prices significantly. And we're not just talking about oil prices. We're talking about things like fertilizer, aluminum, other products that haven't been able to get out of there. So companies are reluctant to make plans and staff up. And also, they're dealing, as you said, with the AI situation of are we going to need these employees or are we going to need to add different employees somewhere else or cut out a department because the computer can do it?

5:28So there's a lot of reasons for companies not to make any big commitments at this point. Yeah, I keep coming back to that comment we heard recently from Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters about lower value human capital and how artificial intelligence could impact the financial services business. Could we start to see some of that reflected in the Labor Department numbers that we're getting this week? I don't think they're going to lay off Jamie Dimon, but it's a little early to be able to say that we are seeing that. There was less hiring last month in financial services, but AI is only beginning here.

6:09And there really aren't any companies other than AI companies who have a reasonable handle on the people that they need. And we have seen a lot of AI companies announcing layoffs. So that's the one area you could watch. It's going to be a while until we see any major change in any other area. Yeah, interesting to hear you mention the AI companies talking about layoffs because they're not the only ones that have been putting out some pretty high-profile layoff announcements. How could that potentially be reflected in this month's print? Well, the AI people will show up in computers and software and software design in terms of jobs.

6:49In terms of other jobs, it's really going to depend on whether or not you can tease out an AI effect. Don't forget that every company that doesn't do quite as well as expected tends to announce layoffs after their earnings because they're going to right-size their business or something like that to try to bring down costs and keep the stock price up. So that's not unusual. And the other thing that happens is this is a very dynamic labor force. And there are millions of jobs lost and millions of jobs gained each month. And what we talk about is the net change. So you'll have all this stuff going on in the background, and we won't really have a good handle on what's happening for a while yet.

7:35The non-farm payrolls report for May, due out this Friday, 8.30 a.m. Wall Street time. Thank you for this, Mike, as always. That's Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent. Let's take a look now at some stocks making news in the week ahead. I'm Nathan Hager with Bloomberg Equities reporter Natalia Konejewicz, and it looks like this Wednesday is going to be the day we see a lot of news. with a bunch of companies reporting, including Broadcom. More of the software story to be told, eh, Natalia? That's right. So yes, Broadcom reports earnings on June 3rd. The ticket is AVGO.

8:11You know, lots of expectations, of course, for this earnings report, because we've heard from CEO who said that the company expects to see sales above$100 billion next year. They also said that AI chip revenue will be at around$10.7 billion. And then if we look back at the latest earnings report, we saw that the company posted better than expected quarterly outlook. They also announced a pretty solid stock buyback program of as much as$10 billion. We know that companies have been buying back their own stocks pretty aggressively this year. Analysts are, of course, really excited by the company's AI-related revenue.

8:58We know that Broadcom expanded agreements with companies like Google and Anthropic, and it's also a good addition to multi-year visibility and contracts. And we also saw some optimism across Wall Street analysts because on Thursday, Today, Susquehanna analysts also raised the price target on Broadcom to$490 from$450. And the stock is doing really well this year. On the year-to-day basis, as of Thursday, the stock was up by 23%. So it's a pretty solid run. Yeah, nice little run there for that stock. So we'll be definitely keeping an eye on that one, along with another pretty big tech name that's had an even better run.

9:47This is CrowdStrike also reporting Wednesday. That's right. Yes. So CrowdStrike valuation, of course, have surged this year, helped by deals to make custom chips for companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. And again, I'm going to cite the latest earnings report because CrowdStrike shares kind of fluctuated a little bit, but the software company reported results that were in line with expectations. And we know that this stock, among other software peers, were really volatile this year because investors were debating potential disruptions coming from AI. Cybersecurity stocks in particular were really volatile because Anthropic announced new features in its cloud AI model that can scan different codes for vulnerabilities.

10:38So lots of debates about the sustainability of the software sector here in the United States. Nevertheless, we also see some optimism on Wall Street. On May 27th, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives raised the price target to CrowdStrike holdings to$700 from$550. He maintained outperform rating. And as of Thursday, as you mentioned, the stock has been doing really well this year. The stock was up by about 43 percent. So definitely outperforming broader markets. Yeah, well, we know how bullish Dan Ives of Wedbush is across the AI story. So his perspective, definitely one to pay attention to. Now, before these tech and software companies report, we're going to hear from a big name in retail before the bell on Wednesday in Macy's.

11:34How are things at Herald Square these days, Natalia? Yes. So, you know, I actually also go to Macy's pretty regularly. When you go to the department store, it's very crowded. No signs of, you know, any consumer concerns or recession. But the stock is flat year to date. We, of course, keep an eye on Macy's because it's also a bellwether because it's such a huge presence across the United States. So Bloomberg intelligence analysts expect that sales may meet consensus based on transaction data. Comparable sales could be somewhere at around 1.3%. EPS could top expectations. Now, Bloomingdale sales, which is around the corner from Bloomberg office.

12:21That's right. Yes. Yes. So they expected that sales have risen to low to mid-single digits. On the earnings call, of course, people will be watching whatever Macy's says about the progress because they are including 200 revitalized stores, all things on consumer trends, luxury spending, tariff -free funds, and, of course, the outlook. You know, it's interesting because Macy's management also introduced a new letter for the shape of U.S. economic growth. They expect E-shaped economic recovery, where wealthy consumers are doing well, middle-income consumers hanging in, and lower-income consumers are struggling.

13:06So anyway, latest earnings report, by the way, was really good. The company reported better than expected results, but it did not help the stock price. Maybe there are lots of concerns about consumer trends going forward, maybe something that we have not seen yet. Now we'll have to think about new alphabet letters to talk about the economy, not just M the ticker, K, but E. Very interesting. Thank you for this, Natalia. That is Bloomberg Equities reporter Natalia Konejewicz. And coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, the EU is sending fresh funds to Ukraine. We'll discuss what comes next in the ongoing war with Russia.

13:48I'm Nathan Hager, and this is Bloomberg.

14:20Thank you. asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide. This communication is issued by JPMorgan Distribution Services, Inc., member of FINRA. So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now, a global workforce of 300 ,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94 % of common questions. Not noise, proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business.

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16:10See complete disclosures at public.com slash disclosures. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. Up later in the program, we'll look to some key economic data in Australia. But first, Ukraine is now in the fifth year of its war against Russian invasion. European allies and Canada have largely taken over responsibility for financing Kiev's military aid. The country is set to receive the first payout from an EU support package in June, followed by two further payments later this year. Bloomberg Daybreak Europe anchor Caroline Hepker has more.

16:50Nathan, the conflict in the Middle East has pushed Ukraine down the agenda, but in June, the country is expected to start receiving 90 billion euros from the EU. The conflict in the Middle East has pushed Ukraine down the agenda, but in June, the country is expected to start receiving 90 billion euros from the EU. It's vitally needed funding, but it will finance a Ukrainian war machine which has surprised its allies with its ability to innovate. Increasingly, Ukraine's drone technology is in demand as a cost-effective alternative for both the United States and NATO. Meanwhile, Russia is having to fend off attacks on its capital Moscow and its refineries.

17:36Tony Halpin leads Bloomberg's coverage of Russia's government and economy and joins me now. Tony, good to speak to you. A year ago, who can forget President Trump telling President Zelensky that Russia holds all the cards in what's become a historic dressing down in the Oval Office. If Russia does hold all the cards, why is this war still going on? It's a good question. I think the past year has demonstrated quite a lot for both Russia and Ukraine about how this war is evolving. A year ago when Trump said those things, it was certainly the case that Ukraine was up against it. They were just emerging from a difficult winter.

18:19There were question marks over continued U.S. military supplies. And Russia appeared to be on the front foot and advancing slowly, if surely, in the east and south of Ukraine. But since then, quite a lot has changed. I was just recently in Kiev and I was really struck by the degree to which people felt a lot more confident now about their positions on the battlefield, about their ability to push back Russia. And part of that is to do with drone warfare. Their innovations in drone warfare are equalizing things on the battlefield. They're helping to make up for a shortage of manpower in comparison to Russia that Ukraine has always had.

18:56and I think they've also realized they've come through what was a really brutal winter just this last winter by far the harshest of the war and maybe there's some optimism related to the arrival of spring but they saw I think that you know Russia tried to freeze them into submission there was a sustained campaign of strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure all through last winter and it didn't really work it didn't extract any concessions from Ukraine and at the same time, Ukraine has been busy developing its own weapons industry, developing its own drone output. And it feels now that it doesn't necessarily depend as it did before a year ago or so, to the same degree, at least, on the US for weapons.

19:37But it's secured the European funding. So some of the pressure has been relieved there. As you will remember, late last year, there was a big question mark over that. And Russia seems to be running out of answers. So they are feeling a bit more confident and think that they can stand their ground and perhaps even force Putin eventually to the negotiating table. That's interesting that you report on that change in mood from having visited the country. And as you say, yes, more independence in terms of weapons manufacturing. I thought it was an extraordinary number that Ukraine saying that it could make as many as 4 million drones a year.

20:14And on the Russian side, that victory parade that is an annual event, very much paired back this year. How has Ukraine managed to hold on against, you know, as you say, a much larger and more powerful country? If you just look at the two presidents, Zelensky and Putin, for example, I mean, Zelensky has been travelling quite extensively in recent months. He's been in the Middle East offering, as you've noted, Ukrainian drone technology to countries there which are suffering from Iranian missile and drone strikes. He's been traveling extensively in Europe. Putin, it seems, couldn't even go out onto Red Square safely without worrying that there might be Ukrainian drone attacks.

20:53So there's a clear sense that Russia's actions have been far more restricted now than they were even a year ago. Ukraine is holding on because I think essentially for them, this is an existential fight, right? If they win this war, or if they prevent at least Russia from winning this war, then they get to survive as a nation. if Russia wins this war the intention clearly is for Ukraine to disappear as a country now that's far more motivating to you as a soldier if you're defending your home and your family and your country and your beliefs against people who might be there just because they're able to earn a lot more money than they were earning at home and Russia has relied very heavily on very large recruitment bonuses and salary payments to persuade people to sign contracts to join the military so they are more motivated they are innovating much more quickly because they've been obliged to innovate much more quickly that's the only way they can really match up against a country which has far more resources and far more people russia you know in any measure can produce a lot more than the ukrainian economy can in terms of its war economy in terms of defense materials in terms of soldiers but the way to answer that clearly has been to innovate and we've seen the way ukraine has developed its whole drone industry, which is something now the rest of the world is looking on with a degree of envy and eager to copy.

22:15And we've also seen that they've been much more innovative in the way that they've deployed their military than Russia. Russia has relied in many respects on a kind of Soviet-era playbook where you just keep throwing large numbers of people into the fight, pushing forward in the hope that eventually your opponent will break. Ukrainians have been much more nimble on the battlefield than that. Motivation and innovation, really interesting. In terms of the finances, the EU has decided, now that Hungary has lifted its veto, to hand over this 90 billion euros in this loan package. How easy will it be for Ukraine to get all of that money?

22:57You know, what are they going to use it for in terms of supporting their wartime economy? Yes, I mean, this has been an absolutely crucial decision. there was every prospect that Ukraine was going to run out of money by about June if this money hadn't appeared and that would have been very difficult for them to pay their soldiers it would have been very difficult for them to keep the economy running as smoothly as it currently does so there's big relief all around in Brussels and in Kiev that the blockage of this funding has been lifted and it should flow reasonably steadily now it's a commitment for two years and it'll be doled out in tranches through this year and next year and that will help Ukraine support itself as a government and an economy and a war effort that previously they had some doubts about.

23:43There are still obviously some other issues. They're in talks with the IMF about support packages there and some of that money is dependent on Ukraine making reforms which many in parliament are opposed to doing because it's just difficult to do in a wartime setting if you're trying to impose extra costs or a burden of taxes on people. But I think there's a general understanding, really, that Ukraine needs this money, it needs to keep functioning, because that's part of a general European defence position, right? If Ukraine loses this war for lack of funding, it just requires everyone else in Europe to spend even more than they do now, ramping up their defence spending and their defence industries.

24:22So in some ways, this is viewed as an investment really against future spending. In terms of the conflict, what might happen next? It's a horrible phrase, fighting season. But the seasons, as you've indicated, play a very big role in the kind of cadence of fighting. What do you think might come next? Yes, I mean, it's inevitable because, you know, the winter is so harsh there. It's very difficult to move around. There's a lot of snow. It's very cold. So, of course, then you get spring and everything melts and becomes rather muddy. And it's still quite difficult to move. But by summer, you've got hard ground and people are looking to make some progress when that happens, at least to improve their positions before the winter weather arrives again.

25:06One of the interesting things this year has been that there was an expectation, I think, that, you know, Russia was going to come out of this winter, having bombed Ukraine extensively throughout to try and weaken morale and undermine the economy. That they were going to come out of this winter with some kind of new offensive in spring and summer, intending to put pressure on the front line and try to break Ukraine in various positions. Ukraine has resisted that. Russia has not managed in any point on the front line to make significant progress. There are still points where it is grinding forward and there are points, it seems, where Ukraine is managing to push them back.

25:40But any kind of large scale offensive hasn't occurred, which suggests that effectively the whole thing is at a stalemate now on the battlefield. And that somewhat explains Russia's decision to revert to more intense bombing of Kiev, that they want to try and exert pressure on the civilian population because they're not really making much progress against the military. The risk there is precisely that, that the war just grinds on with, you know, no one able to resolve it and no one able to resolve it militarily. And the diplomacy then just sort of fails to find some kind of form of words that both sides can sign up to.

26:14I think that is the biggest risk at the moment because, as the US has indicated, there are no active talks going on. The US isn't really trying to bring the two sides together at this point because its bandwidth is consumed by what's going on in Iran and the Middle East. And so it's being left to the troops on either side to sort of continue their actions. And neither side can really demonstrate that they are able to make a decisive breakthrough that, at least at present, will change the course of the war. As you say, distracted by Iran, how has the US's world changed in the war under President Trump?

26:50In terms of diplomatic attempts, is there anything in the offing? We started by talking about President Trump's meeting with President Zelensky. Maybe we should end thinking about the US attitude in all of this. Yes, I mean, I think Secretary of State Marco Rubio's words the other day that, you know, they seem to be the only people who can get this done, but others are welcome to try if they want to, was kind of a slightly sideways dig at Europe's inability to get to the table. And one of the things we're currently watching for is whether Europe can get its act together and find a representative who would then engage with President Putin to try and move the diplomacy forward.

27:31There's been a lot of talk in Europe about re-engaging in some form with Russia, because that's the only way that they can really get involved in the diplomacy that ends the war. Clearly, they're supporting Ukraine and President Zelensky, but they don't have engagement with Russia. If that does happen, and if they manage to engage in that way, then the question for Trump will be whether, you know, whether the US steps back or whether it tries to step and they haven't managed to do it. So it's an outstanding item in his intray. We'll have to see if Europe does find someone. We'll have to see whether Russia is willing to engage with that person.