Instant Reaction: US, Israel Attack Iran as Trump Urges Regime Change

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1:09Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. Welcome to the Bloomberg This Weekend Podcast with David Gura, Christina Ruffini, and Lisa Matteo. We're covering a lot of breaking news this morning out of the Middle East. the U.S. taking extraordinary strikes on Iran. We have abstain from the president that he posted in the early morning hours. We're going to have news, reports, analysis over the course of this morning, as we will every weekend, Saturdays and Sundays from 7 o 'clock to 10 o 'clock on Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Radio streaming on the Bloomberg Business app and at Bloomberg.com as well.

1:45And Christina, suffice to say, we were both awoken early by all of this news. Quite early. This was not quite the show we had planned today, as we just mentioned. But look, this is why we're here. This is why our teams are in. And this is one of the great things about being at Bloomberg is people were awake all night. People were online immediately and reporting this out. We want to play you some more of the sound from that startling about eight minute statement the president dropped on social media this morning. Again, he didn't call the press pool. He didn't notify everyone. We talked to our reporter in Mar-a-Lago and she said she found out when the rest of the world did post it online.

2:17Among some of the many remarkable things in that statement, including a declaration of war against Iran and a call for regime change. The president also said this campaign could cost American lives.

2:28Donald Trump:The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost and we may have casualties that often happens in war. But we're doing this not for now. We're doing this for the future. And it is a noble mission. We pray for every service member as they selflessly risk their lives to ensure that Americans and our children will never be threatened by a nuclear armed Iran. We ask God to protect all of our heroes in harm's way. And we trust that with his help, the men and women of the armed forces will prevail. We have the greatest in the world and they will prevail. To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity or, in the alternative, face certain death.

3:25Donald Trump:So, lay down your arms. You will be treated fairly with total immunity or you will face certain death. Finally, to the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations. For many years, you have asked for America's help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want.

4:11Donald Trump:So let's see how you respond. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass. May God bless the brave men and women of America's armed forces. May God bless the United States of America. May God bless you all. Thank you. The last two minutes of that extraordinary statement from the president of the United States released on Truth Social early this morning, well before dawn. Our coverage spans the globe, and I'm going to bring in Dan Williams, Jerusalem-based correspondent for Bloomberg News, along with Jumaane Bersetje, the anchor of Horizons on Bloomberg Television.

4:57Joe Matthew, the anchor of Balance of Power, and Jeff Mason, White House correspondent with us on set here in New York. Jumaane, we were just talking about your current circumstance, the fact that you've been hearing these strikes where you're sitting. I want to go to that entreaty from the president of the United States there at the end, urging Iranians to lay down their weapons. I should point out here, these are airstrikes. And one wonders what the logical next steps would be were one to do that on the ground in Iran. And I'm curious how you were thinking about that, the president calling for Iranians effectively to rise up, calling on the Revolutionary Guard.

5:26Offering immunity for those who do lay down their weapons. But what mechanism is in place to do that? Talk about that challenge, if you would, Jumana, in these next few hours and days. Yeah, well, it's a huge challenge. And I think from what we can gather, just the retaliation that all of these Gulf states have seen and witnessed over the last few hours suggests that the Iranian regime isn't going to go down quietly. They've been readying themselves for the real possibility of military action. They have responded very quickly. Remember, in the 12-day Iran-Israel war, it took them a couple of days to calibrate their response.

5:56This time they were ready to go. And they have targeted multiple countries. I will tell you, I'm sitting here in Dubai, and 15 minutes ago, I heard a couple of blasts. And it seems as though they're not sparing any Gulf states insofar as the U.S. has assets in those countries. So we're talking about the UAE. We're talking about Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq. All of these countries are involved. So it has become a regional war. And what we know from authorities in all of these countries is that most of the missiles and drones have been intercepted. So there don't appear to be any civilian casualties from the strikes themselves.

6:36There has been one casualty in Abu Dhabi on back of shrapnel. But that is the bigger issue here, because a short while ago it was reported that the foreign minister, Abbas Arachie, actually did make a call to his counterparts in all those countries and warned them about them allowing the U.S. to use their bases to launch further strikes on Iran. So this would suggest that Iran are intent on retaliating. Now, when it comes to the demonstrators, I mean, you have to rewind back a month ago, there was an uprising, but it was brutally put down. And there are unofficial numbers that have come through.

7:13We don't know the exact death toll, but the numbers put forward by human rights agencies suggest that 30 ,000 people, more than 30 ,000 people were killed in these demonstrations. So there is a wariness, I think, in Tehran amongst the population and a real question as to what exactly the U.S.'s assistance actually looks like and whether the focus here is to target, once again, military infrastructure, perhaps key individuals within the Iranian regime. But in terms of actual support on the ground, what does that look like? Because once again, the stakes are very high. And this is an Iranian regime we spoke about in the prior hour that is very intense on its own survival.

7:54It's an existential threat to them. And they will not go down easily. And Iranian expats I've spoken to recently in the U.S. who despise this regime with every fiber of their being still have family in Tehran. I talked to a woman who said her family, she hadn't spoken to them in days during the last round of strikes because they had gone to the mountains to try to hide from these air assaults. So these are the people the Trump administration is trying to appeal to. But at the same time, these are the people who are being put in harm's way, as well as our colleagues and friends and other people throughout the region.

8:27Dan, I understand you are now outside and safe. I hope you've emerged from a shelter. I'm wondering if we're hearing any more from the Israeli government this morning. I reached out to the embassy here, and they said they're not speaking yet. I'm wondering if you're hearing anything on your side of the world. As of now, no, there have been procedural updates, for example, from the transportation minister about conditions at Israel's airports. The Israeli airspace is closed, as are the airspaces of other relevant countries in the region. That obviously will affect air traffic, travel and the like.

9:00They've also been called to shelters very regularly, usually divvied up by sector, by city, by community, by part of the country. The Israelis have been weathered to such missile attacks going back all the way to 1991, the Gulf War. And over those three and a half decades have been developing a very sophisticated system that really homes down to the areas likely to be affected by any specific launch. So basically, if you are in the line of fire where you happen to live, or potentially in the line of fire for debris that could emerge for an interception of a missile above where you are, a missile intended for another part of the country, you'll receive a timely warning to go down to shelters.

9:43That's happened already a half dozen times since this really blew up at just past 8am this morning, just past 10 in the Gulf. And we've been seeing that repeatedly. I think part of the reason the Iranians have succeeded, apparently, in scoring strikes in those Gulf targets, as Jumana alluded to, is it comes down as much to range as anything else. Israel is well over 1 ,000 kilometers away. Those Gulf targets are in some cases just a few hundred kilometers away from the Iranian launch points. That means there's far less time to prepare for those incoming missiles to intercept them, to mount an interception.

10:21Obviously, when you're across the region, as Israel is, and Israel has a very sophisticated defense array system, then it's easier to track those missiles and see them coming. I expect after Prime Minister Netanyahu put out that recorded message, very close to President Trump's message, in fact, the content tracking almost exactly with what Trump said, the Israelis also calling on the Iranian people, Iranian people of all communities and sectors to rise up and take hold of their destiny. now that the Iranian government is apparently receiving a drubbing at the hands of the combined US and Israeli forces, we won't hear back from him until I think nightfall when the Jewish Sabbath ends here in Israel.

11:01That's a really good point, Dan. I mean, in June, during that 12-day back and forth, we did watch the Iron Dome very successfully intercept most of those munitions. There were a few that got through, but for the most part, what you were seeing watching those screens was actually the interceptors going out and taking on those. Iran clearly knew this was a possibility and recalculated what they would strike and when. Joe Matthew, let me stick with this theme of surprise. And I know that you were listening as I was to Courtney Subramanian, who's with the White House pool at Mar-a-Lago, noting that she was as surprised as all of us by the presentation of that statement early in the morning.

11:32She saw it pop up online, as we all did. I'm curious about lawmakers and how surprised they were. I saw reporting earlier this morning from The New York Times that Jack Reed's communications director, Jack Reed, of course, the ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, was given no advance notice of this. One wonders about the so-called Gang of Eight, the leadership from the House and the Senate, the leading members of the select intelligence committees as well. Any indication if they were given any heads up here? We actually just have learned at Bloomberg News that the Gang of Eight did get a heads up on this, which did not happen, for instance, when the U.S.

12:03went into Venezuela to capture Nicolas Maduro. And there was a bit of outrage when Marco Rubio, at the time the Secretary of state suggested that they couldn't trust members of Congress to not leak that information. And the gang of eight is quite well known for not doing that. These are the two party leaders in each chamber and leader and ranking member of both intel committees. That would include Mark Warner, who is out with a statement this morning demanding a war powers vote. And it gets back to this idea of a prolonged engagement, which the president is clearly telegraphing. The Speaker of the House was also briefed, we understand.

12:36And I suspect that that came from the same place. Whether there's going to be a classified briefing for all members now will be the next question. And I suspect in the days ahead, they'll be demanding that. And Jeff, correct my memory, but I think that's a departure from when the US struck Iran's nuclear facilities earlier in last year in the summer, because I remember hearing a lot of griping from Congress that members hadn't been notified, maybe some Republicans had, but I don't think the full G8 was notified. No, I think your memory is right on that. And just to sort of take a broader look or stand back look at that.

13:04You heard the president use the language and use the word war. Well, Congress has the right to declare war. And that could be another major tension point politically in Washington, the fact that the president, though some lawmakers may have been given a heads up, he didn't go and ask permission. He didn't ask Congress to get behind this. He went ahead and did it. This is another example, I think, that some critics would say of the Congress, which, of course, is controlled by Republicans, giving up powers that the Constitution gives them to the executive. That's been true with tariffs as well. This, of course, on a major foreign policy level.

13:41And debate about the War Powers Act is not exclusive to this president. This was an issue for Democratic presidents, this was an issue for Republicans. This has been, as long as we've covered Washington, this has been something Congress has complained about. But to me, the fact that usually when you hear presidents announce strikes like this, they dance around this specifically so they don't come into direct contact. What does it tell you about the power dynamic between Congress and this White House that the president is outright saying this is a war, it could be protracted, and there could be American casualties?

14:08I think it's just another example of the strengthening of the executive that has happened under President Trump's second term. I mean, he has claimed powers in many ways that are not his. He has used executive orders to govern, more so than legislation, which is not to downplay the legislative victories that he also had in terms of tax cuts. And that has been a tension point in Washington. It's been a tension point with certainly with Democrats. The question is whether Republicans, rather, as Joe was referencing earlier, are going to rise up against that as well. Certainly, I can guarantee you if this were a Democratic president in office, they would not be standing for this.

14:45But that has been a hallmark of the Republican response to President Trump's second term is that they don't stand up. So will this be a line that they feel he's crossed? TBD. Jamani, you heard Dan talking about the alignment in those statements between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump. I want to ask you about how effectively Gulf leaders have been able to make their case to President Trump in the run-up to all of this. We saw that inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace in Washington, D.C. Many Gulf leaders party to that and were present for that first meeting. I guess there is some inherent ineffectiveness here, but what is that level of communication, the quality of that communication like between Gulf leaders and the president right now?

15:26I mean, you've got to be thinking that working on the channels, we just got a statement put out by the Saudi Arabian foreign ministry calling for an immediate de-escalation, saying that they stand in unity with their Gulf allies in the regions, the ones who had been targeted. And for Gulf states, look, this is of utmost priority. De-escalation is of utmost priority. and I think when it comes to the relationship with Iran I wouldn't say that there's a huge amount of love lost between many of these Gulf nations and the Iranian regime but that being said, for them what is more important in the region in the context of their own economic visions because many of these countries are undergoing economic transformation is political stability and that has been a consistent theme if you speak to the leaders in these various Gulf States, they will tell you that they don't want this crisis to spiral out of control.

16:21And viewers may recall that a couple of years ago, 2023, there was actually a mediation that was brokered by China between Saudi Arabia and Iran to sort of restore diplomatic relationships where both sides pledged non-interference in each other's affairs. And that was a big step. It was a big milestone in the region. because you may also recall that in prior incidents, Saudi Aramco facilities in Abqai were also subject to retaliation from Iran. So this time around, they've been working very aggressively the last couple of years to ensure that those type of strikes don't happen again. And yet here we are on a day like today where every single U.S.-based military base, or not every single, but every single country that is hosting a U.S.

17:08base has been targeted. with the Iranian retaliation. So they would be looking upon this with a lot of consternation, concern about what happens next, obviously pushing for a big de-escalation here, working those diplomatic channels. But it's unlikely at this point that things can calm down or de-escalate, because the messaging that's come through, at least from the Israeli side, is that this is an operation that's going to go on for days. And as long as that happens, you would think that also the Gulf states and their assets, the US assets in the region, will continue to be targets. I also wanted to update our audience.

17:48Courtney Superman, our White House correspondent in Mar-a-Lago with the president, updates us and confirms that we are not expected to get further remarks from President Trump today. Dan, I want to go to you and ask about President Trump and the relationship between him and Benjamin Netanyahu. This has been two leaders who were very close and then had a bit of a tiff. The bromance seemed to be over, and then it has reignited in recent months. The prime minister was recently at the White House, and sources were telling me Israeli officials were coming out of that meeting. The word they used was giddy.

18:21Flash forward a few weeks later, and we have this joint strike on Iran. Talk to us about that relationship and how much influence you think Netanyahu has over President Trump when it comes to taking action in Iran. I think he has a great deal of influence. Indeed, there was something of a falling out in between the two Trump administrations. Famously, Trump then out of office in Mar-a-Lago used the F-word about Netanyahu. He was unhappy about the Israeli prime minister being so quick to recognize President Biden's election win. I think that's all well in the past. I don't think there's any dispute.

18:58I think President Trump would be the first to agree with this. This is a president who really enjoys success and admires success. And I think after the catastrophe of October 7th, the way the Israeli government and military were blindsided by that Hamas attack two and a half years ago, Netanyahu, a veteran prime minister, the longest serving prime minister, with his eye firmly on his historical legacy and also the needs of the country in the given moment, put his mind not just to turning around the situation in Gaza, but effectively revolutionizing, bringing about revolutionary change to the Middle East at large.

19:35Israel went on the offensive on several fronts against other Iranian allies. Hamas has enjoyed Iranian patronage for a very long time, as has Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite groups in Iraq, certain groups in Syria until very recently. And then again, the Houthis in Yemen are also aligned with Iran. And now Israel, with the help of the United States, are taking on Iran directly. So I think what's clear here is that Trump has been persuaded. It may have been by other forces, may have been for his own reading of history. He'll be someone who will remember the Iran crisis of 1979, the Iranian revolution, when the U.S.

20:14embassy was taken over and many of the staff held hostage for a long time. He will be aware of that. There are also U.S. allegations that Iran has been behind assassination attempts or at least one against this president who survived two assassination attempts, active assassination attempts in recent months. So it would appear a combination of the counsel of the Israeli prime minister, prime minister he trusts to get the job done and potentially to give him a solid accounting of the realities of the Middle East and his own ideas about his historical place or U.S. priorities in the Middle East and how U.S.

20:50interests might be served by seeing a change of regime in Iran. It seems that they've coalesced in this day that we've seen. And also, as noted, six months ago in June, they stress test this relationship with the United States joining the Israelis in what was then a surprise attack against Iran. The U.S. joined in. And now they joined in at the outset with the U.S. pre-positioning planes in Israel, which itself is without precedent. So yes, there is a very tight relationship between these men that goes well beyond a rapport to what appears to be a common understanding of the Middle East. Joe, at a moment like this, one tends to look back on what happened in the preceding days.

21:26You were on Capitol Hill for the State of the Union, watching the present advisers come in. That's right. That seems like a thousand years ago. That feels like a thousand years ago. General Cain was there, of course. Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, as well. In fact, we were talking yesterday, Christina and I, Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, still having a plan to go to Israel over the course of this weekend. They haven't pulled down that trip yet. It was announced yesterday. Yesterday. I wonder how you think about that, Joe, the run up to this. Again, I keep going back to this theme of surprise.

21:53But what you've observed sort of the apparatus surrounding all of this. Yes, we've heard from the president, but the degree to which he's been engaging with. And we've heard from his advisers on national security, defense and diplomacy. Yeah. And of course, at that point, when we were in the Capitol for State of the Union, the storyline was one of optimism that there were they were gearing up for talks on Thursday. President said 10 to 15 days. By the way, this is 10 days on the spot. I'm not sure if you guys noticed that, which is kind of interesting. But you know, Marco Rubio about Iran. Well, that's also very true.

22:23And really no new insight into justification. It certainly wasn't amounting to what we heard in this video overnight. Of course, they clearly knew this. And he had a briefing by the CENTCOM commander on Thursday. Little did we know that was probably a briefing about how the attack was ready to go. Look, this is going to play differently with different members of the cabinet. You point out Marco Rubio reminding everyone of the tension between Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance as the potential heir apparent of this president and of MAGA. This is going to be very difficult for J.D. Vance to telegraph publicly.

23:01He's going to have to support this, obviously, as a member of the administration. But to make this an America first, we need to do this now as a domestic issue for him, knowing that he wants to run in 28, it's going to be tough. Jeff, I want to play you a bit more sound from the president's remarks this morning. No, I apologize. We've heard the president's remarks this morning, but I want to play you sound from the president speaking yesterday in corporate Christie, Texas, because listening to what he said during the State of the Union, listening to the messaging up into this speech, as we were all trying to read the tea leaves last night, when I heard this, I thought, uh-oh, so let's play this and you can give us your answer.

23:33Donald Trump:They don't want to quite go far enough and it's too bad. Look, we've been playing with them for 47 years and that's a long time. They've been blowing the legs off our people, blowing the face off our people, the arms. They've been knocking out chips one by one. But every month there's something else. You can't put up with it too long. We're not happy with the negotiation. They just don't want to, they don't want to say the key words, we're not going to have a nuclear weapon. Was that the president tipping his hat there for little people who were listening? And what are the ramifications for this as we look at the bigger geopolitical strategy?