Iran War To End 'Soon' Says Trump, Oil Prices Tumble As Stocks Gain

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1:48Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm John Tucker. Here are the stories we're following today. All right, John, thank you. The war with Iran is now into its 11th day, but President Trump is signaling it could be over. very soon. At a news conference from his resort in Doral, Florida, the president said the conflict might not end this week, but it is going ahead of schedule. Doing really well. I mean, at a level that nobody thought. We took a little excursion because we felt we had to do that to get rid of some evil. And I think you'll see it's going to be a short term excursion. President Trump says the U.S.

2:20has hit 5 ,000 targets in Iran. He says its military capacity is down to 10 percent and drone launches have decreased 83%. He's promising to bring oil prices down that he says have gone artificially up because of the excursion. We get more from Bloomberg's Jumana Bersechi in Dubai. Clearly what has happened here is he is responding to global markets and the impact that the energy shock is beginning to have on some of these global energy markets and obviously ultimately the U.S. consumer here. And he also made another very strong threat to the IRGC, saying that if they continue to block oil transportation through the straits, they will be hit by the United States 20 times harder than they have been hit thus far.

3:04Bloomberg's Jumana Bersechi reports the president says he's discussed waiving some oil-related sanctions in a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. And he's considering other options to bring oil and gas prices down, including releases from emergency stockpiles and a pause on federal gas taxes. In the meantime, blasts continue to be heard across Iran. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have been dealing with incoming projectiles overnight. And Turkey says NATO is deploying a U.S.-made Patriot missile defense system to its south. That's after the alliance intercepted two Iranian missiles over Turkish airspace in recent days.

3:37And the price of oil continues to drop following the president's comments on the war. As Bloomberg's Will Kennedy reports, it was quite an historic day in the energy markets. It was a wild day in oil markets yesterday. It was the biggest fall from the intraday peak to the close that the market's ever seen. More than$30. Pretty extraordinary trading. Yes, the market's calmer. They heard what they wanted to hear from the president, which is that he sees an end to the war in a relatively short time. And if that happens, it would allow the oil market to return to normal. And Bloomberg's Will Kennedy says the intense swings on Monday saw Brent trade in a band of about$36.

4:17That is the most on record in the widest range since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. We also saw quite the turnaround in the equity markets, John. The S &P 500 was down as much as 1.5%, but it closed higher by 0.8 % and the NASDAQ rose 1.4%. Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at New Edge Wealth, though, is still cautious. I think that we might be a little bit early for opportunities. Again, we get back to those technicals where we see flush metrics of things being sold too far, too fast, indiscriminate selling. There's going to be great buying opportunities that come out of this, but we're not seeing those measures flash the warning signs yet that suggest that you should back up the truck.

4:58It's New Edge Wealth's Cameron Dawson. Yesterday, the SIBO volatility index, the so-called fear gauge for Wall Street, tumbled 13 % after reaching its highest level since last April. And Nathan, let's turn to politics. A couple of critical primaries in the Deep South today. This is where voters are going to choose nominees to represent Mississippi in Congress. And in Georgia, voters are going to decide who's going to succeed former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. Bloomberg's Amy Morris reports from Washington. In Georgia, more than 15 candidates are running in the special election for Representative Greene's seat, rated as the most Republican-leaning in Georgia by the Cook Political Report.

5:34Most of the contenders are Republicans, but Clay Fuller won President Trump's endorsement. Democrats are looking to retired Army General Sean Harris, who won the nomination in 2024. In Mississippi, Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith faces a primary challenge from physician and novelist Sarah Adlaka. Representative Benny Thompson, the delegation's only Democrat, faces two primary challengers in his bid for an 18th term. In Washington, Amy Morris, Bloomberg Radio. Amy, thank you. The high-stakes battle between Anthropic and the U.S. government continues this morning. The artificial intelligence giant is suing the Defense Department for declaring the company a risk to the U.S.

6:11supply chain and shifting its AI work to other providers. Seth Fiegerman is covering the story for Bloomberg. What we're hearing from Anthropic here in a statement is they're taking this step to protect their customers and their business. At the same time, though, they're telling us that they intend to pursue all avenues here to try to immediate this relationship with the government, including direct conversation with the government. So they're not foreclosing the continuation of talks here, but they are still pursuing litigation. Bloomberg's Seth Fiegeman says the dispute erupted last month after the Pentagon wanted to use Anthropix's Claude chatbot for any purpose within legal limits and without any usage restrictions.

6:54Anthropics insisted its chatbot not be used for mass surveillance against Americans or in fully autonomous weapons operations. And President Trump's nominee to become the new chairman of the Federal Reserve will be meeting with senators, possibly as early as today, to see their support. We get more from Bloomberg's Tom Busby. Financier and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh going on a charm offensive with U.S. senators this week, ahead of his expected hearing and his mission to replace Jerome Powell as head of the nation's central bank. Powell's term ends in May. Now, one senator on the dance card is Tom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, who said he likes Warsh in that position, but opposes any nomination hearing until the Justice Department ends its investigation into the Fed's two and a half billion dollar renovation of its headquarters, saying it puts inappropriate pressure on Powell to lower interest rates.

7:43Tom Busby, Bloomberg Radio. Okay, Tom, thank you. JetBlue flights are resuming this morning. That's but a nationwide ground stop that the airline requested had been canceled. The airline had suffered a system outage. Flights were halted for about an hour. And FedEx has eclipsed UPS as the largest U.S. parcel carrier bar market value for the first time ever. The milestone punctuates a multi-year stock slide for the 119-year-old UPS, which has faced pressure from labor costs, declining volume, and questions about its relationship with Amazon. On a program note, John, markets may close on Fridays, but the world doesn't.

8:22That's why we're bringing you a new live radio and TV show. It's called Bloomberg This Weekend. It looks beyond the daily headlines to the bigger themes driving politics, business, and culture. Join David Gurra, Christina Ruffini, and Lisa Matteo for smart conversations and in-depth interviews that help make sense of the week that's been and what comes next. Get Bloomberg This Weekend live Saturdays and Sundays from 7 a.m. Eastern on Bloomberg Radio. Bloomberg Television and the Bloomberg Business App. That brings us to 508 on Wall Street. Time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world.

8:57And for that, we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, good morning. Good morning, John. Investigators are trying to learn more about two young Pennsylvania men accused of bringing homemade bombs to a protest outside the home of New York City's mayor. Amir Balat and Ibrahim Kayoumi allegedly told authorities after their arrest that they were inspired by ISIS. NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch. En route to the NYPD precinct, Balat made spontaneous statements without being questioned by NYPD officers that were captured on body-worn camera footage. He said, this isn't a religion that just stands when people talk about the blessed name of the prophet.

9:38We take action. We take action. Mayor Zoran Mamdani said everyone has the right to peaceful protest, but violence won't be tolerated. Anyone who comes to New York City to bring violence to our streets will be held accountable in accordance with the law. Balot's lawyer said his client is a high school senior with a complicated personal life and that he doesn't know what he's doing. Three brothers, including two prominent luxury real estate brokers in New York City, have been convicted of conspiring to drug and rape multiple women. Jurors returned guilty verdicts on 19 counts after a five-week trial that included testimony from 11 women who said they were assaulted by one or more of the Alexander brothers, Oren, Tal, and Alon.

10:25Defense attorney Mark Agnifilo says the verdict will be appealed. We believe in our clients' innocence and we're not going to stop fighting until we prevail. And we believe that we will one day prevail. The women described they were attacked after they were invited to vacation locales, including the Hamptons. The president of Ohio State has resigned. Under Ted Carter's leadership, OSU has stopped all DEI efforts and cracked down on student protests against the Israel-Hamas war. Now Carter has told the Ohio State trustees that he had an inappropriate relationship with a woman looking for public resources to support her personal business.

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14:19Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio. nationwide on Sirius XM and around the world on Bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg Business App. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. Now until the 11th day of the war in the Middle East, President Trump is sending a signal to Americans and markets that the conflict with Iran could be over very soon. We're putting an end to all of this threat once and for all, and the result will be lower oil prices, oil and gas prices for American families. Vice President Trump speaking at a news conference in Doral, Florida. Joining us this morning from Jerusalem is Bloomberg News reporter Dan Williams.

14:57Dan, good morning. From where you sit, does it look like the war could be over very soon? It feels like it's waiting. Then again, keep in mind that Israel, unlike U.S. forces in the Gulf, unlike many Gulf Arab powers, is a good distance away from Iran. And therefore, naturally, there's been a tapering off of long-distance Iranian fire against Israel as the Iranian arsenal has either been spent or cut down by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes. So there are fewer sirens, fewer calls to shelter. Israel is slowly reopening its economy. Kids aren't going back to school yet. And indeed, emergency measures on the home front have been extended through Friday, which indicates there won't be a full return to normalcy.

15:43However, aviation is resuming gradually, but nonetheless, it appears that things will be back to normal in terms of civilian flights. There is a separate front that Israel is dealing with in Lebanon with Hezbollah, which is traditionally the Iranian cat's paw, a major guerrilla ally of Iran. But even there, there's been a mixed message from Israel as to whether we might see escalation or some sort of accommodation there. in the Gulf as well, especially in UAE, which has borne the brunt of Iranian strikes. They're reporting a drop-off in those attacks from Iran. So it would appear that when the president speaks of having eliminated the Iranian threat, when it comes to the arsenal, he would appear to be correct.

16:27That appears to be the case on the ground. The wider question is whether a fatal blow has been dealt to the Iranian nuclear program, which appears to have been reconstituted to a degree, or at least with the Iranians retaining those stocks of highly enriched uranium that they had last year after the previous round of US-Israeli attacks on Iran. And also the wider question of what the future holds for Iran should the shooting war end in terms of leadership. It would appear that the regime is still in place, is still holding firm. And the Israeli-US hope that through these attacks, they've created enough of a space, enough of a vacuum so that the opposition could come in and topple that regime or replace it, we may not be there quite yet.

17:13Well, it raises a question as well of what kind of opposition there is in Iran after the appointment of the late Supreme Leader Khamenei San Mojtaba as the new Supreme Leader. We've heard some comments from Iranian leaders apologizing for strikes on neighboring countries and at the same time vowing to continue fights against the US and Israel. What does that tell us about where things could go, Dan, in our last minute? That the Iranian regime is still in the fight publicly and in terms of what remaining firepower it has. I would suggest that you would have to be a hardliner in order to take the reins there, given that you've already been threatened by death by the Israelis and similar signals from the US.

17:59The question is what the coming days hold in terms of what even the American president said could be a last round of very punishing, very damaging strikes on Iran if indeed we're on the way to seeing this shooting wall winding up. This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed by 6 a.m. Eastern each morning on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. You can also listen live each morning starting at 5 a.m. Wall Street time on Bloomberg 1130 in New York, Bloomberg 99.1 in Washington, Bloomberg 92.9 in Boston, and nationwide at Sirius XM Channel 121.

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